Another three things

A bluffers’ guide to Saturday’s elections in Queensland, plus further items of marginal interest.

No Newspoll this week it seems. News you can use:

• Queensland’s elections on the weekend are covered in extensive and ongoing detail here. To cut a long story short: the state by-elections of Bundamba and Currumbin resulted in victories for the incumbent parties, namely Labor and the Liberal National Party respectively; Adrian Schrinner of the LNP was re-elected as lord mayor of Brisbane; and the LNP have almost certainly retained a healthy majority on Brisbane City Council. In Bundamba, the LNP ran third behind One Nation (and probably shouldn’t have bothered to run), whose presence in the field also took a bite out of the Labor primary vote. Labor did manage to improve their primary vote at the LNP’s expense in Currumbin, where One Nation is a lot weaker, but the latter’s presence means they will get a lower share of the combined preferences and thus fail to bite into the LNP’s existing 3.3% margin. There has been no notional two-party count, but scrutineers’ figures cited by Antony Green suggest Labor received an uncommonly weak 71% share of Greens preferences.

• Roy Morgan’s promise that it would provide further detail on its half-way intriguing findings on trust in political and business leaders (see here and here) has borne disappointing fruit. Rather than provide the trust and distrust scores as most of us would have hoped, a follow-up release offers only blurry impressions as to the specific attributes that caused the various leaders to be trusted or distrusted, in which “honest/genuine” and “integrity/sincerity” were uselessly listed as distinct response options.

• The Tasmanian government has delayed the date for the periodical Legislative Council elections, which this year encompass the seats of Huon and Rosevears, but only from May 2 to May 30. The Tasmanian Electoral Commission says this will give it more time to “ensure electors have access to the voting process and to maintain the integrity of the 2020 Legislative Council elections during the COVID-19 pandemic”, which presumably means a greater emphasis on postal, pre-poll and maybe telephone voting.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,029 comments on “Another three things”

  1. When you live and breath epicycles there’s no way that you will ever adopt a simplistic heliocentric approach.

    Well, that puts a new spin on things 🙂

  2. Basically if one takes out the overseas infections and cruise ship passengers, our figures look a lot better. The quarantining of arrivals is the smartest thing the governments of Australia have done.

  3. “Get paid for not showing up ?”

    Basically yes.

    As far as I can see, one of two things will happen
    1. you have actual work to do, employer will keep paying you but use the 750p/w to subsidise your wage
    2. you don’t have work to do – employer will put you on “stand down” and pay you just the 750 p/w. Hope you go away without them needing to pay a redundancy.

  4. Comparative COVID Testing by 29 March

    South Korea (pop 51.26M) 394,000 7,705 tests/million. pickup rate 2.4%

    New South Wales (pop 7.99M) 96,000 12,015 tests/million. pickup rate 2.0%

    https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=&bid=0030

    NSW is currently testing more per day than all of South Korea

    I’ll just repeat this every now and then until some of the yammerers read it

  5. Chewer

    How can your doctor provide you with an accurate diagnosis if he suspects covid19 and he cannot get you tested because of the rules?

    Doctor’s first obligation is to diagnose and treat patient – someone who has a fever of 39.5 and has done for past two days plus other symptoms needs diagnosis. It’s got almost nothing to do with COVID19 (and could be a complete coincidence). If it is COVID19, shouldn’t delay treatment waiting for a test that is not going to alter treatment.

  6. OC

    So where are all those NSW tests going if they are not actually testing people who have caught covid19 yet don’t know where they caught it from?

    As I said last night, South Korea moved to isolation for overseas arrivals early on. This allowed them to be more liberal in who they test. Whereas NSW has quite likely been throwing a lot of tests at contacts of people who have come from overseas.

    I South Korea, if your doc thinks you have symptoms, you get tested. In NSW, if you catch it and you don’t know who from, you’re screwed.

    Finally, OC, for all your protestations. We simply aren’t testing enough people!

    I don’t care how you spin it. We’re flying blind on community transmissions. We need more tests and more tests. And by no small measure. Got it?

  7. OK – looks like the official figures include people from the cruise ship. The 17 number for WA’s increase was excluding those.

    Updating my graph (it keeps me amused). WA looks like it’s gone backwards, but given all those cases go into quarantine, it’s not that bad.


  8. Oakeshott Country says:
    Monday, March 30, 2020 at 6:51 pm

    Sorry EGT what is the treatment for non severe COVID again?

    Isolation so you do not spread it onto others. You have to get the reinfection rate below one or this goes on forever.

  9. Doctor’s first obligation is to diagnose and treat patient – someone who has a fever of 39.5 and has done for past two days plus other symptoms needs diagnosis. It’s got almost nothing to do with COVID19 (and could be a complete coincidence). If it is COVID19, shouldn’t delay treatment waiting for a test that is not going to alter treatment.

    Ok so your doctor says “sorry dude, I think you’ve got covid19 but I can’t get you tested because of the rules. Take a Bex and have a good lie down” That’s not diagnosis, that’s guesswork.

  10. “As I said last night, South Korea moved to isolation for overseas arrivals early on. ”

    Only if they had symptoms, as I understand it. They are only just moving to a complete quarantine now.

    Sunday, 29 Mar 2020
    SEOUL (Reuters) – Every person arriving in South Korea from overseas will soon be required to undergo two weeks of quarantine to prevent the spread of the new coronavirus, the country’s prime minister said on Sunday.

  11. There appears to be the assumption that small busines owners, who have closed their doors, automatically have financial reserves that they can draw on to pay their non working staff $750 a week for at least a month before the government antes up.

    Good luck with that scenario.

    The subsidy should have gone to the unemployed worker instead of that person having to stand in line at Centrelink for the job seeker payment and it should have been in place weeks ago.

  12. OC

    Sorry EGT what is the treatment for non severe COVID again?

    Isolation at home (presumably panadol to bring down fever?)

    Doctor has to rule out other things to reach that.

  13. Cud Chewer
    Wrong!
    In South Korea testing was limited to transmission risk factors. They were very fortunate that the first foci of infections were two bizarre religious groups and the tracing of contacts was easy. They also concentrated on foreign visitors

  14. Blobbit
    Watch the video I posted.
    In South Korea, when you arrive, you get tested.
    If you test positive you go to isolation in a special facility
    If you test negative, you still get isolated in a hotel.
    No exceptions.

  15. “I don’t care how you spin it. We’re flying blind on community transmissions. We need more tests and more tests. And by no small measure. Got it?”

    I agree with the need to expand testing BUT the statement that “we’re flying blind” isn’t entirely correct. If there is a large number of community cases they should be showing up in numbers of people requiring treatment.

    I haven’t seen anything that suggests those numbers are showing up, but I’d be interested to see them

  16. “Cud Chewersays:
    Monday, March 30, 2020 at 6:59 pm
    Blobbit
    Watch the video I posted.
    In South Korea, when you arrive, you get tested.
    If you test positive you go to isolation in a special facility
    If you test negative, you still get isolated in a hotel.
    No exceptions.”

    Not much into watching videos, it’s a fairly inefficient form of communication.

    I’ll take your word for it. I guess then the reported move into quarantine is just a stricter form of isolation.

  17. As well, unemployed workers receiving the job seeker payment are not eligible for the job keeper subsidy.

    That should result in no confusion and fuckups at all over the next month or so !

  18. Hi to everyone
    I am returning from a few years “Poll Bludger and The PuB”self isolation lurked many times went a low way when Bill Shorten lost to this clown who I think should have stayed in Hawaii he is as much use here as tits on a bull.
    stay alert we need more lerts

  19. “I agree with the need to expand testing BUT the statement that “we’re flying blind” isn’t entirely correct. If there is a large number of community cases they should be showing up in numbers of people requiring treatment.”

    Mate I have a friend who has the cough and his wife has the full range of symptoms, including breathing issues. Can they get tested? No.

  20. OC

    So the same treatment as flu or cold except you feed a cold and starve a flu or somethink

    Dunno – but having people hanging around without proper care because some test can’t be done doesn’t seem like a great approach.


  21. Oakeshott Country says:
    Monday, March 30, 2020 at 6:59 pm

    So the same treatment as flu or cold except you feed a cold and starve a flu or somethink

    No very different, isolation. This is not about “the patient”, it’s about the patients parents.

    Society is spending billions trying to fight this blind, it is nonsense.

    You cannot control something you can’t measure. What we are doing is bullshit. Complete shutdown of the economy because the Liberals can’t manage the boarder and because we can’t organize testing at a level that allows us to control it without literally spending billions.

    There may be reasons why we are stuck with it ( do not have the testing resources), but there is no defense for it..

  22. Chewer:

    Mate I have a friend who has the cough and his wife has the full range of symptoms, including breathing issues. Can they get tested? No.

    Breathing issues could be serious whether or not it is COVID19. Need a doctor, not (necessarily) a COVID19 test.

    Only the community / health system cares whether it’s COVID19 – sick patient’s interest is to get better from whatever it is. The point is to get better, not to find some way to get tested…

  23. This should cheer up some people

    WA Health Minister Roger Cook has announced WA’s COVID-19 testing regime will be expanded over the coming days, with members of the community who have a fever and acute respiratory illness to be allowed to be tested.

    This would be offered on top of the testing already available to people as part of the current scheme, which includes those who have travelled and their close contacts, and anyone who is a close contact of a COVID-19 patient, or any health or police officers with a fever or respiratory illness.

    The new testing is due to begin operating from Thursday.

    https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/wa-coronavirus-live-wa-to-see-if-premier-adopts-two-person-rule-as-cruise-debacle-escalates-20200329-p54f35.html#p506wi

  24. Well Probyn seems happy with it which is a welcome change considering the way he has been carrying on.

    I wonder what the Kouk thinks. I will go out on a limb and say not happy.

  25. Oakeshott Country says:
    Monday, March 30, 2020 at 7:09 pm

    …NSW is now doing double the levels in South Korea and Bahrain

    That is not a reason why we shouldn’t do more. Do you think what we now have is cheap? It’s a fucking mess, it needs to be pulled up.

    You cannot control what you can’t measure.

  26. Is a casual worker who has been working two or three jobs to make ends meet ( all of which are now gone ) eligible for more than one job keeper payment ?

    What happens if all her or his ex bosses apply for the subsidy for their sacked staff ?

    Remember 3.3 million Australian workers are casual, gig or sole traders.

    The job keeper subsidy should have gone directly to the worker instead of the job seeker payment.

  27. Has anyone woken up yet , with this Morrison latest rort for his rich employer mates to give false hope to the employee who has been stood down or sacked

    Morrison’s rich employers are getting taxpayers subsides for 6 months ,when things have settle down and the likely scenario sack the same employers, this time the employees will not be getting subside help , will have to go on unemployment

    A Cunning plan by Morrison and his cronies

  28. and…

    There were good signs in WA, with a drop in the number of new cases of infection per day.

    WA was not seeing the doubling in cases being picked up, which had been predicted by some.

    There were 17 new West Australian cases overnight, excluding cruise ship passengers, bringing WA’s total to 355.

    Mr Cook said cruise ship cases were skewing WA’s overall figures, with 84 per cent of cases in this state linked to travel and cruise ships.

  29. “ How can your doctor provide you with an accurate diagnosis if he suspects covid19 and he cannot get you tested because of the rules?”

    CT chest

  30. Mate I have a friend who has the cough and his wife has the full range of symptoms, including breathing issues. Can they get tested? No.

    Presenting to a NSW hospital with a full range of symptoms AND breathing issues will get you a test. Mate, I think you are telling porkies

  31. “DMsays:
    Monday, March 30, 2020 at 7:14 pm
    and…

    There were good signs in WA, with a drop in the number of new cases of infection per day.

    There were 17 new West Australian cases overnight, excluding cruise ship passengers, bringing WA’s total to 355.”

    The most confusing para written by a journo there 🙂

    The 355 must include the cruise ship passengers. To get to 355, needed an increase of 44. I’m fairly sanguine about that though, as they’ve all gone into quarantine.

  32. My first impression hasn’t changed.

    Job Keepers are better than Job Seekers. Lifters are better than Leaners.

    Read about it in the Murdoch press tomorrow.

  33. “ New South Wales (pop 7.99M) 96,000 12,015 tests/million. pickup rate 2.0%”
    Half of those tests were on Ruby Princess patients NSW Health smuggled in and went to every state. NSW Health get the Gold Virus award for services to covid.

  34. As for NSW. OC. Show me the official page where it says that if you have symptoms (in NSW),you get tested.

    Because last time I looked it said, you only get tested if you can prove a connection to a known case.
    Happy for you to prove me wrong.

  35. As at 3:00pm on 30 March 2020, there have been 4,245 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. There have been 279 new cases since 3:00pm yesterday.

  36. lizzie @ #686 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 3:31 pm

    sprocket_

    Hartcher: they bungled it and this is weeks too late.

    It was admitted that this has been stitched together too fast. Bound to be problems down the road.

    What the fuck have they been doing?

    Their one advantage with delaying the response is that they had more time to work things through in a considered way.

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