Another three things

A bluffers’ guide to Saturday’s elections in Queensland, plus further items of marginal interest.

No Newspoll this week it seems. News you can use:

• Queensland’s elections on the weekend are covered in extensive and ongoing detail here. To cut a long story short: the state by-elections of Bundamba and Currumbin resulted in victories for the incumbent parties, namely Labor and the Liberal National Party respectively; Adrian Schrinner of the LNP was re-elected as lord mayor of Brisbane; and the LNP have almost certainly retained a healthy majority on Brisbane City Council. In Bundamba, the LNP ran third behind One Nation (and probably shouldn’t have bothered to run), whose presence in the field also took a bite out of the Labor primary vote. Labor did manage to improve their primary vote at the LNP’s expense in Currumbin, where One Nation is a lot weaker, but the latter’s presence means they will get a lower share of the combined preferences and thus fail to bite into the LNP’s existing 3.3% margin. There has been no notional two-party count, but scrutineers’ figures cited by Antony Green suggest Labor received an uncommonly weak 71% share of Greens preferences.

• Roy Morgan’s promise that it would provide further detail on its half-way intriguing findings on trust in political and business leaders (see here and here) has borne disappointing fruit. Rather than provide the trust and distrust scores as most of us would have hoped, a follow-up release offers only blurry impressions as to the specific attributes that caused the various leaders to be trusted or distrusted, in which “honest/genuine” and “integrity/sincerity” were uselessly listed as distinct response options.

• The Tasmanian government has delayed the date for the periodical Legislative Council elections, which this year encompass the seats of Huon and Rosevears, but only from May 2 to May 30. The Tasmanian Electoral Commission says this will give it more time to “ensure electors have access to the voting process and to maintain the integrity of the 2020 Legislative Council elections during the COVID-19 pandemic”, which presumably means a greater emphasis on postal, pre-poll and maybe telephone voting.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,029 comments on “Another three things”

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  1. I would imagine that “registered” means that his qualifications are still recognised by the appropriate body. As for “medical practitioner”, he could hardly be described as this if he is not practising.

    In my profession, in this state, you can be registered if you maintain CPD. You dont need to be actually doing the job. They are in the process of reconsidering this and insisting a certainly amount of work activity is undertaken. Or adding a different accreditation level – something akin to a Historic Vehicle Rego which lets you take out your old clunker for a spin every now and then.

  2. Joe Biden? Poor guy doesn’t know where he is, what day it is or what he was saying. His staff are doing a good job covering for him. It really is rather cruel what they are doing to him.

  3. poroti – such cynicism for our Dear Leader….Shame on you…………….I will listen out to see if you are on the money – more likely than not……………………………………….

  4. “Personally would shoot for a 20-25% “normal” occupancy rate, so that a brief spike up to 3-4x normal could be accommodated. 50%+ seems quite risky.”

    The only systems that I have seen run with that level of redundancy are military infrastructure designed to survive/operate in nuclear war. Public health systems couldn’t afford to operate with that type of redundancy.

    Or Woolworths checkouts.

  5. ‘Bucephalus says:
    Monday, March 30, 2020 at 3:54 pm

    Boerwar

    Yes, I have been at home since Sunday 15 March.’

    What a waste for a simple case of the flu. Plus not knowing.

  6. It’s more about the nature of the process(es) that the look of the chart(s):
    – How many processes are underway? are any of them exponential? (need them all to be linear to win)
    – Is each State now a separate process? (this actually simplifies the problem, but complicates the charts)
    – Are there occult processes? e,g, secondary outbreaks with unknown roots and closure, which hence aren’t being actively suppressed (but would be being mitigated by passive measures such as SD). These probably remain exponential (SD probably retards the growth but doesn’t flip it to linear)

    – E.g. in Singapore, is the recent worsening due to a known and hence containable outbreak or is the cause unknown? leading one to suspect an occult process…

  7. Boerwar

    You have impeccable timing though. Bludging at work but just in an hour ago were chemicals I’d been waiting for to complete a validation test for a new product ……………………..which had undergone accelerated ageing in a storage test 🙂

    All feels like the last week of the school term at the moment with the normal work routine still in place but only nominally.

  8. The Australian Medical Council’s definition of working in medicine is very broad and includes being a medical media person

  9. caf – our local Woolworths is excellent as is the Coles (x2) and the IGA (x2) and the Aldi and the butchers and fruit & veg shops – very competitive area I think and they know that if they don’t perform they will lose a lot of customers.

  10. It seems crazy to post this, but really… Poor USA.

    PoliticusUSA
    @politicususa
    · 7h
    Trump asks why doctors and first responders can’t reuse masks a second, third, or fourth time.”

  11. So our Govt can enact socialist economic policy for a life threatening pandemic but not for life threatening climate change …?

  12. Bucephalus:

    [‘Monday, March 30, 2020 at 3:53 pm’]

    You didn’t really address the issues I raised, which were the mixed messages coming from the top, and taking into account that Morrison thrives on secrecy. I hope you get well.

  13. A significant amount of ICU bed occupancy is related to elective and semi-elective surgery. Most of this will be suspended when the plan is activated.

  14. citizen – normally school kids are home from school on the weekend.

    If one goes with “keep schools open” then there are strong arguments for seven days a week, and for a month…

    Presumably it was regarded as infeasible to implement in time?

  15. Oakeshott

    The Medical Board of Australia that oversees the Registration of Doctors does have a Non-practising Registration but I can’t see why you would want to pay for that.

  16. Comparative COVID Testing by 29 March

    South Korea (pop 51.26M) 394,000 7,705 tests/million pop pickup rate 2.4%

    New South Wales (pop 7.99M) 96,000 12,015 tests/million pop pickup rate 2.0%

    https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=&bid=0030

    NSW is currently testing more per day than all of South Korea

    I’ll just repeat this every now and then until one of the yammerers reads it

  17. The Medical Board of Australia that oversees the Registration of Doctors does have a Non-practising Registration but I can’t see why you would want to pay for that.

    Maybe you still get to go on the pharmaceutical company junkets.

  18. Osman Faruqi
    @oz_f
    ·
    18s
    So, as leaked to media, a $1,500 wage guarantee. Equates to the minimum wage. Nowhere near close to UK, NZ, Canada, Norway etc. Weeks of dithering and this is the best we get.

  19. ” So our Govt can enact socialist economic policy for a life threatening pandemic but not for life threatening climate change …?”

    Dealing with the pandemic doesn’t disadvantage coal interests…

  20. Bucephalus:

    [‘Monday, March 30, 2020 at 3:53 pm’]

    You didn’t really address the issues I raised, which were the mixed messages coming from the top, and taking into account that Morrison thrives on secrecy. I hope you get well.

  21. ‘Shellbell says:
    Monday, March 30, 2020 at 4:10 pm

    EGT

    Anecdotally it the large number of people returning to Singapore which is the source of the rise’

    One of the sights crossing the land bridge from Singapore to Malaysia is large numbers of open tray trucks with laborers sitting packed tight in the tray. They are shuttled from cheap accommodation in Malaysia to work in Singapore and back every day. I imagine this would have been addressed early in the piece. The recent spike was related in the media to a spike in expat returnees – a similar experience to that in Australia. But that was media and not science talking, I believe.

  22. you are allowed to be a registered non practitioner for a total of 3 years. It covers things like maternity leave, sabbatical, chronuc illness and in particular the 1st 3 years of retirement when some people have difficulty giving away their registration. You can come back from non practicing but it means what it says – you can’t practice in this category

  23. Team Australia, building a bridge, over to the other side.
    Josh adopting the same serious tone.
    I think they’ve been rehearsing together.

  24. Morrison struggling with the delivery. Tired? Or is it the socialism he cant swallow?

    Went to Frydenberg for details. He is taking a while to get to them.

  25. Aaron White
    @AaronKinKin1
    ·
    1m
    Scott (Winston) Morrison is delivering the speech of his life. It’s so epic. It’s groundbreaking. Oh, hang on, it’s just a copy of the NZ, UK wage subsidy policy he already announced. But l must say, he’s getting very good at announcing stuff. #auspol

  26. Everyone knows you can use a golf ball more than once. You can use a lie more than once. You can sexually assault women more than once.
    What is the problem here, exactly?

  27. Morrison has just destroyed the edifice of Liberal governments being better economic managers.

    Destroyed the Budget to save his candy ass

  28. Morrison looks exhausted as I am sure all political leaders are, although I think David Elliott looked just goofy this am (NSW Police minister).

  29. Atlee

    Catmomma complains about being called a racist. Catmomma calls some one else a racist. What a nong!

    So – COVID19 is a lesson about graphs. I mean graphs in the sense of discrete mathematics (and CS) rather than charts – the COVID19 graphs have patients as nodes and transmissions as edges between those nodes.

    In PB we also have a graph:
    – posters as nodes
    – edges between nodes (posters) representing both durable animus and (in the form of posts) transient abuse

    I’d like to make use of the graph in the following sense:
    – I’m quite interested in what C@tMomma posts; I don’t want to block her generally
    – I’m quite interested in what Atlee posts; I don’t want to block him generally
    – I have no interest at all in what Atlee posts about C@tMomma, nor in what C@tMomma posts about Atlee
    I want to block the edge, not either of the nodes.

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