The fortnightly Essential Research poll focuses, naturally enough, on coronavirus, with 45% rating the federal government’s response good or very good, and 29% poor or very poor. According to The Guardian’s report, it would seem the latter tend to be those most worried about the virus, as measured by a question on whether respondents felt the situation was being overblown, with which “one third” agreed while 28% thought the opposite.
Over the course of three fortnightly polls, the proportion rating themselves very concerned has escalated from 25% to 27% to 39%, while the results for quite concerned have gone from 43% to 36% and back again. The Guardian’s report does not relate the latest results for “not that concerned” and “not at all concerned”, which were actually up in the last poll, from 26% to 28% and 6% to 9% respectively. Further questions relate to trust in various sources of information, notably the government and the media, but we will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today to get a clear handle on them. Suffice to say that Essential still has nothing to tell us on voting intention.
In other findings, 49% said they wanted the opposition to fall in behind the government’s decisions while 33% preferred that it review and challenge them, and 42% now consider themselves likely to catch the virus, up from 31% on a fortnight ago. Seventy-two per cent reported washing their hands more often, 60% said they were avoiding social gatherings, and 33% reported stocking up on groceries.
We also have a Roy Morgan SMS survey of 723 respondents, which was both conducted and published yesterday, showing 79% support for the government’s decision to allow those in financial difficulty to access $20,000 of their superannuation. As noted in the previous post, an earlier such poll of 974 respondents from Wednesday and Thursday recorded levels of trust in various Australian politicians (plus Jacinda Ardern, who fared best of all); a further set of results from the same poll finds Dick Smith, Mike Cannon-Brookes, Andrew Forrest and Alan Joyce rating best out of designated list of business leaders, with Rupert Murdoch, Clive Palmer, Gina Rinehart and Gerry Harvey performed worst. We are yet to receive hard numbers from either set of questions, but they are apparently forthcoming.
UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here.
Blobbit @ #2546 Thursday, March 26th, 2020 – 9:26 pm
What will we re-purpose all these luxury cruiser liners as? Live animal export vessels, perhaps? But surely putting animals in such small cabins would be regarded as just too cruel?
Rakali enjoy it while it lasts. Afterwards there are some advantages from being an ex-capitalist. We recently became entitled to a part pension and blue card. Our monthly prescription medication cost reduced from around $280 per month to around $60 per month.
Davidwh
We are spending billions on cruise force but they are still being designed and constructed.
———-
Is that the U-boat Cruise Force?
“What will we re-purpose all these luxury cruiser liners as? ”
Floating morgues?
Seriously though, they’ll end up being broken up on a beach in India or Bangladesh.
A lot of South Koreans in the ship building industry will be looking for work.
…ship captains could not be relied upon to self-disclose illnesses on board.
Because they would probably lose their jobs if they did.
Yes Rakali. Those subs would stop the cruise liners.
Cruise liners could make good floating hospitals.
I learned today, by watching what we like to call, ‘Shit TV’ around here, that is 9Life, that a lot of luxury cruise liners are built in Finland! Who knew?
Dandy Murray says:
Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 8:30 pm
LR,
Could model it with a latent state-space model (hidden Markov model), where the (latent) state determines the exponent and the growth is the observed variable.
Who wants to try that out?
Go for it: The data. Cut and past into excel.
state Data from https://www.covid19data.com.au/
date NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT
25-Feb-20
26-Feb-20
27-Feb-20 3
28-Feb-20 1 1
29-Feb-20
1-Mar-20 1 2
2-Mar-20 4
3-Mar-20 6 1 1
4-Mar-20 7 1 1 2
5-Mar-20 3 2 2 1
6-Mar-20 3 1
7-Mar-20 8 1 1
8-Mar-20 4 1 1 1
9-Mar-20 7 3 2
10-Mar-20 14 3 3
11-Mar-20 4 3 2 2 3 1
12-Mar-20 13 6 7 3 1
13-Mar-20 14 9 8 4 5 1
14-Mar-20 20 13 11 3 3 1
15-Mar-20 22 8 15 1 1 1
16-Mar-20 37 14 7 9 10 1 1
17-Mar-20 39 23 10 3 3
18-Mar-20 57 27 16 5 4 3 1
19-Mar-20 40 29 50 5 17 1
20-Mar-20 46 28 40 8 12 2 2
21-Mar-20 83 51 37 17 26 7 2 3
22-Mar-20 97 67 38 33 30 5 10
23-Mar-20 136 59 60 34 20 6 13
24-Mar-20 149 56 78 36 35 8 1 7
25-Mar-20 211 55 46 27 30 6 2 5
26-Mar-20 190 54 50 38 9
Rakali @ #2541 Thursday, March 26th, 2020 – 6:21 pm
It’s never appealed to me. I’ve always regarded them as floating petri dishes of disease.
Rakali @9:29.
I was horrified to discover that i was/am a filthy capitalist boomer.
Welcome to the club.
Davidwh
My long unclaimed franking credits only totalled $6,000 …
I have been on a part pension and pension card for 5 years. After this current capitalist disaster, i will be on a full pension, should i still exist.
davidwh @ #2556 Thursday, March 26th, 2020 – 9:39 pm
Indeed. They come “pre-infected”!
Rakali yep our self funded pensions have taken a big hit.
Confessions
It’s never appealed to me. I’ve always regarded them as floating petri dishes of disease.
———
Hell no. Having certain anxiety problems being confined in a place with 1000’s of humans would be hell on earth!!
Player One
Cruise liners could make good floating hospitals.
———
I’ve always thought that Australia should have one or two high tech medical ships to travel to areas of need and disaster to help people in need, like when the tsunami occurred.
Presumably the Navy had some type of hospital vessel?
davidwh
The Grey Nomad Fraternity must be feeling under a bit of pressure at the mo with all the border’s being closed or close in one direction or ???
Rakali
I’m pretty sure we have at least one floating hospital in the navy. I think it was used in the tsunami.
Speaking of U boats, we watched Das Boot (again, again) last night.
Chicken and sweet potato curry about to be served, and tonight it’s Mulholland Drive (again and again)
Lockdown LOCKDOWN.
Rakali @ #2565 Thursday, March 26th, 2020 – 9:45 pm
That was davidwh’s suggestion, not mine!
I can’t see how they could ever be modified sufficiently to not be just what we already know them to be – i.e. floating disease incubators. In fact, if you had tried to purposefully design such a thing, you could probably not come up with a better solution 🙁
“Blobbitsays:
Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 9:47 pm
Presumably the Navy had some type of hospital vessel?”
Just had a look. Apparently we don’t.
Perhaps people thought I was joking about Toilet Roll Nationalisation (TRN Act 2020). Commonweath buys all Toilet Roll production and gives away via supermarkets. price goes to zero and commercial hoarders take a bath (presumably a small one, but who knows). Problem disappears.
Think Dianne Brimble , think Fairstar the Fun Ship’s ugly nickname and forget cruising
The LDH’s both have extensive hospital facilities.
At least Morrison has now dropped the pretence that he is acting on medical advice.
“ Private hospitals have won a one-week extension to perform non-urgent elective surgeries, against the advice of the federal government’s expert medical panel.”
Poroti I think most of us are off the road for a while. We were camping at Bowling Alley Point last Sunday when our son let us know about the QLD border restrictions, so we headed home Monday.
Riding out the storm at Bribie.
Diogenes @ #2575 Thursday, March 26th, 2020 – 9:54 pm
He is acting on the advice of the doctor’s financial advisors 🙁
When do you think the ABC will invite the Corona Virus on 7.30 to give their side of the story?
GG have to be SBS. Think C-19 only speaks Mandarin.
So they really are the “filthy rich”. The ‘comfortable’ with all their international ‘jet setting’ paying the price 🙂
……………………………………………………………………………………………
Eastern suburbs the epicentre of NSW’s COVID-19 battle
NSW Health has revealed that Waverley has 105 cases and Woollahra 66 cases. Sydney City has 69
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/the-sydney-suburbs-with-covid-19-clusters-20200326-p54e5t.html
davidwh @ #2577 Thursday, March 26th, 2020 – 9:58 pm
It’s OK. Leigh will just talk slowly.
And once again.
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Racism .
Looks like Indians are now attacking Chinese, because they not happy to be at home.
davidwh
I saw the very earliest “Grey nomads” in the 80’s, thought them odd adventurers but good people .Years later I saw the Grey Nomad “odd adventurers” had become a flood of the blighters. All very flash and well equipped now and not much of the “adventurers”. Buuuuuuut I still dream of one day joining the herd and arguing with fellow travelers about whether clockwise or anticlockwise is the sensible way to go 😆
Just a reminder.
Looking on a log scale for a change of exponent.. there is no evidence.
https://coronavirusgraphs.com/?c=c&y=log&t=line&f=0&ct=&co=21
Passing half a million cases later this evening…
I don’t care what the marketing voices say, i am convinced we are going to have a very very bad time in the next weeks/months. The current neo-liberal bastards and their voices for hire are LIARs by vocation. Our Government is a gang of crooks who are totally immoral.
A lot of Australians go along with them because they think they will get a bit of the stolen loot.
They have run down our medical system, they have no control of our borders, they hate all Australians who are not rich, they lie without any compunction.
Analogous to Germany in the mid 40s, a nation that acts/lives out as if it believes in comforting lies is a nation that has chosen the product of lies.
Poroti there are some great adventures. Last year we travelled to the Tip, across to Karumba, out to Alice and Uluru. Over to the West Coast and back home through Bourke etc. lots of fun and adventure.
Simon Katich:
It would be interesting if they test substantially the whole island (if they can stop people coming in…)
poroti @ #2579 Thursday, March 26th, 2020 – 7:00 pm
Is it a coincidence that wealthy suburbs also tend to have low vaccination rates?
poroti
arguing with fellow travelers about whether clockwise or anticlockwise is the sensible way to go
———-
I didn’t think NZ had a clockwise?
Evening all again. I just had an interesting social chat with some friends, both of whom work in health and allied services as managers. It was nice to catch up socially (something which has suddenly become less frequent) and also fascinating to hear their insight into Covid19, what it means for health services, and timeframes.
In a word, wow! They gave me a completely different understanding of Covid19 and what it means. This virus is a new ballgame. It is a long-term issue. The public information we have been given on how long this might last is laughably incomplete, if not severely over-optimistic. No wonder Dr Fauci is frustrated with Trump. The latter is in complete denial of reality. Scomo, Dutton and Josh may not be much better.
The idea of herd immunity is absurd. Even Boris gets that now. Best case we might have it under control in Australia within 3 months if we go to lockdown soon, six months if not. Even then, that is just Australia. We have no idea how the rest of the world will go, since not even the EU has agreed a common approach, let alone the OECD. There is no guarantee there will be a cure or immunisation. They have been trying that for ten years for SARS (Corona 1) without success. We need to think about restructuring things so that we can live sustainably in a newer more hygenic country.
So we will probably still need tighter border controls and quarantine arrangements for 18(?) months. That is how long the Spanish flu took to die down. And as cruise ship captains have already proven, desperate people will lie to beat restrictions. We will need to treat it more like the way Border Force deals with attempts at drug importation, something they are competent at.
The economic damage will therefore be huge in terms of people movement industries. Freight movements of goods are not so bad. A shrink wrapped product taking a month to get here in a container is not a threat. So globalisation of trade is not at risk. Large scale international travel is going to have to take quite a holiday. Learn to love domestic tourism, after we can get this mess in order. If we don’t “flatten the curve” pockets of infection could reemerge in Australia for a long time after.
So the economic arguments against lockdown are insane. We need to get this under control. The out of control scenario is both a human and economic disaster. No wonder the experts are breaking ranks. The federal government is simply not facing reality. Maybe Scomo genuinely cannot grasp the science.
Albo needs to act like a government in exile. The reason for canning parliament for four months is now obvious to me. Yes they do not want scrutiny. But also, they have not grasped the problem and have no idea how to solve it. They can’t answer questions and they know it. Scomo being Scomo, truth is not an option. All State premiers need to manage their own turf, as they seem to have realised.
On the plus side, there may be no safer place to be than here. We can’t really run out of food or essentials except in the short term via panic buying.
This is my view and conclusions. I am not a doctor so maybe I completely misunderstood what was said. Maybe a magic fix will be found. But people I respect are talking about how to maintain health staff welfare, morale and fatigue in the long term. For them this is pretty serious. It should be for our government too.
davidwh
Ah, but back in “those days” no mobile phone and the vehicles were ,shall we say, a bit rougher and readier than “these days” . The”adventure” being getting there without breaking down :). So tell me , are you a clockwise or an anticlockwise supporter or do you “go both ways” 😆 ?
The Top Gear crew about staying at home..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSCW7Ou61Ig
Socrates:
That sounds very depressing.
Socrates
If I were a grey nomad, I’d follow a path which if plotted on the map, would spell out something very rude.
ItzaDream
says:
Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 9:49 pm
Speaking of U boats, we watched Das Boot (again, again) last night.
Chicken and sweet potato curry about to be served, and tonight it’s Mulholland Drive (again and again)
Lockdown LOCKDOWN.
______________
Incredible movie and probably the source of my anti-submarine sentiment. I am committed to rewatching Breaking Bad, The Sopranos and the Wire. I am a little bronchial so I have moved some chess pieces and gone into full lockdown from here on out.
In the words of the 70’s group Supernaut “ I like it both ways”. 🙂
Cud Chewer
If I were a grey nomad, I’d follow a path which if plotted on the map, would spell out something very rude.
——-
Prey, tell me more.?
From the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy..