The fortnightly Essential Research poll focuses, naturally enough, on coronavirus, with 45% rating the federal government’s response good or very good, and 29% poor or very poor. According to The Guardian’s report, it would seem the latter tend to be those most worried about the virus, as measured by a question on whether respondents felt the situation was being overblown, with which “one third” agreed while 28% thought the opposite.
Over the course of three fortnightly polls, the proportion rating themselves very concerned has escalated from 25% to 27% to 39%, while the results for quite concerned have gone from 43% to 36% and back again. The Guardian’s report does not relate the latest results for “not that concerned” and “not at all concerned”, which were actually up in the last poll, from 26% to 28% and 6% to 9% respectively. Further questions relate to trust in various sources of information, notably the government and the media, but we will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today to get a clear handle on them. Suffice to say that Essential still has nothing to tell us on voting intention.
In other findings, 49% said they wanted the opposition to fall in behind the government’s decisions while 33% preferred that it review and challenge them, and 42% now consider themselves likely to catch the virus, up from 31% on a fortnight ago. Seventy-two per cent reported washing their hands more often, 60% said they were avoiding social gatherings, and 33% reported stocking up on groceries.
We also have a Roy Morgan SMS survey of 723 respondents, which was both conducted and published yesterday, showing 79% support for the government’s decision to allow those in financial difficulty to access $20,000 of their superannuation. As noted in the previous post, an earlier such poll of 974 respondents from Wednesday and Thursday recorded levels of trust in various Australian politicians (plus Jacinda Ardern, who fared best of all); a further set of results from the same poll finds Dick Smith, Mike Cannon-Brookes, Andrew Forrest and Alan Joyce rating best out of designated list of business leaders, with Rupert Murdoch, Clive Palmer, Gina Rinehart and Gerry Harvey performed worst. We are yet to receive hard numbers from either set of questions, but they are apparently forthcoming.
UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here.
I don’t normally watch 7:30 but accidentally heard some Doctor, Deputy CMO, i think.
From his first utterances he came across as a glib member of the LNP. He screamed politician not doctor.
Rakali yeah the deputy CMO was on Q+A
Vomitaceous..
The Guardian
Queensland parliament has reportedly been suspended until 28 April, due to the coronavirus.
Federal parliament and the Tasmanian state parliament have already suspended until August.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/03/24/essential-research-morgan-coronavirus-superannuation-trust-business-leaders/comment-page-50/#comment-3370603
… until Scovid-19 disappears from screens and media, none of it matters!
My take, for what it is worth, is that Australians started to self-isolate about 10 days ago. Where we could, we put pressure on our workplaces to let us work from home. Starting from last Tuesday, we have also kept our kids home from school, if we can.
The Bondi beach goers defying the best medical advice last weekend were just a small proportion of the population.
I would expect to see a slow-down in the rate of increases of COVID-19 cases in Australia, probably starting about now. This does not mean we are out of the woods, not at all, but it does mean we have slowed down the rate of infections.
This is essential for keeping the death rate low. If you are sick enough to need to be ventilated, and there is a ventilator available for you, then I think you have a greater than 50% chance of coming out of ICU alive.
If you are sick enough to be ventilated and there is no ventilator available, then I think you do not survive.
I think it is important that we do not use the slowdown in the rate of new COVID-19 cases to relax our current isolation protocols, or argue for no further restrictions.
What we are doing is starting to work, but as more cases occur community transmission becomes inevitable. Let’s keep safe.
CIOVID-19 is a very nasty illness. Any testimony from patients and doctors around the world should convince us of that. One person getting it is one too many.
Yep Pegasus
It is wrong that both the Federal Parliament and Tas State parliament have done so.
As Richard Flanagan points out now is the time for review and involvement otherwise we may end up as a police state
Coronavirus Australia latest: at a glance
A summary of the major developments in the coronavirus outbreak across Australia
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/26/coronavirus-australia-latest-at-a-glance
Douglas and Milko @ #2603 Thursday, March 26th, 2020 – 8:07 pm
You may be right.
But the up tick in positives is from infections two weeks ago and that will likely continue for a time yet before the actions taken by authorities make an impact.
Corona Virus is like Comedy. Tragedy plus time.
It is interesting that as soon as there is a “crisis” the first institution we close down is Parliament!
But hairdressers are far more vital to the body politic !!
Admittedly, most of us would agree with that.
But the institution of Parliament is less important in a crisis than a hair “salon”!!!!
My take, for what it is worth, is that Australians started to self-isolate about 10 days ago.
That’s what I’ve done.
We have jumped from one exponential curve to another once (maybe twice) already. That’s probably the main reason to stick to exponential projections on a less aggressive curve for a while longer. But even that, not yet.
“My take, for what it is worth, is that Australians started to self-isolate about 10 days ago.”
—————
Haha, I’ve done that most of my life. I didn’t need a silly old virus.
I knew one day i would lead the mob.
D&M
When you look through the reported cases and their origin, I think it is clear the vast majority of Australians are taking Covid19 seriously and doing the right thing. Actual community based infections to random people have been very few (negligible here in SA). But it is highly contagious, so it only takes a few idiots breaking the rules, be they PMs or Ministers for Border Security, to cause hundreds of infections.
Failure to ban US flights a month ago, failure to quarantine Cruise ship passengers and locals returning from O/S flights, and a few extravagant dinners and religious functions involving infected people accounts for virtually all cases in Australia now.
Apparently, this is a Dutch Railworker working from home.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1243101971390689280
“Dandy Murraysays:
Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 7:54 pm
Dark ‘n stormy o’clock here!
Blobbit – start with sklearn, or just get the whole the anaconda distro.”
I already have python installed. I keep stopping at meaningful whitespace…
LR,
Could model it with a latent state-space model (hidden Markov model), where the (latent) state determines the exponent and the growth is the observed variable.
Who wants to try that out?
sprocket
“Senator Andrew Bragg – a Liberal Wet- infected Senator Rex Patterson..”
————
How does a Liberal wet compare with a Labor dry?
Though, i must admit i had no idea there were any “wets” left in the extremist LNP.
Rakali
“From his first utterances he came across as a glib member of the LNP. He screamed politician not doctor.”
My wife made the exact same comment. He had a habit of trying to dodge tricky questions. More than once my wife muttered “That’s not what she asked you!”. Seconds later, Leigh (to her credit) pulled him up for the same reason.
Blobbit,
If you are familiar with Matlab, try out Julia
sprocket
“Senator Andrew Bragg – a Liberal Wet- infected Senator Rex Patterson..”
Viruses survive better on wet surfaces.
Given the way the likes of ScoVid-19 and Reichspotato are going in terms of flights and boats, well pretty soon we’re going to see Eureka mk2?
https://www.nma.gov.au/defining-moments/resources/eureka-stockade
I know Kambah Mick. I’d like to think he’s a friend of mine.
He’ll be thrilled Astrobleme gave him the “Not Truly Racist” tick of approval above.
William, when are you going to kick these Inquisitors off, or at least tell them to shut up?
If you can explain the benefit to this blog of having two trolls on here passing judgement as to who’s racist and who’s not, based on “evidence” thinner than a fruitfly’s foreskin, that would be nice too.
Kakuru
Apart from acknowledging your wife’s obvious perceptiveness, 🙂 It seems really self defeating for the now Morrison One Party State to put these obvious “carpet-baggers” forward as their spokesthings when any normal person reacts to their obvious party marketing line with “yuk”.
I have been working. Just checking the two QLD By-elections must have been cancelled by now. QLD has shut the borders, schools are going to be shut, all mass gatherings are illegal now. The QLD premier wouldn’t put winning votes and seats over lives. There is no way these elections should proceed in the current state of things.
“How many people here are amateur or professional stats types”.
Well I got a mere two A+’s in my undergraduate degree, but one was in Mathematical Statistics and the other one in Mathematical Economics. However, that was a looooong time ago and nowadays I can’t be bothered about complex matters (or more likely am drifting into Trump/Biden mental processing territory). Of course that doesn’t stop offering an opinion on PB.
But there is a difference between ‘exponential growth’ in a technical sense and in the popular discourse. The latter just means accelerating at a very rapid and unsustainable rate.
Of course Morrisons whole marketing life was only successful, in 2019.
But i will give him credit for his total commitment to ‘marketing’ as a valid philosophy of life for a life form, however primitive.
Historyintime
How many people here are amateur or professional stats types”.
——-
I can barely count!
Diogenes:
[‘I’m ashamed to be a plastic surgeon.’]
Please stop being so hard on those who make so many others so beautiful(?). Indeed, someone said to me the other day, “Mavis, age hasn’t been kind to you; have you considered botox, even a facelift?” – the impertinent young twit, who’s showing signs herself of premature photoaging. I mean, she’s got a face like a Shar-Pei.
EGT
Is there one? I know the peeps there were getting tetchy. Even The Shed eatery had hand sanitiser (although they were still insisting on cash).
I am back now. The barista at Penneshaw I grabbed a coffee from the day before leaving the island looked troubled. Partly the damage to his business. Partly the concern about all the cruise ship passengers that had been going in and out of his shop in recent months.
KI peeps have always had a love hate relationship with tourists and mainlanders.
G’Day BB. Yep, I think we should be counted as friends albeit ones that don’t get to meet up as much as we might like.
I was too slow to the party today as I had a very busy day, unfortunately toobusy to keep up with PB. But as I did start to catch up I was more outraged than is good for me by the promiscuous use of “racism” to identify ideas that some disagreed with.
Life on the sunny shores seems to agree with you?
Rachel Puppet something on the ABC reminds me of ScoVid-19, lotsa noise, little content, and no understanding, unlike say Alan Kohler …
Kambah, 100mm of rain here today is hardly “sunny”, but I did see some blue sky this morning. So yes, life is agreeable, thanks.
And what about those cold Molonglo valleys?
In QLD we must be the only place where you are required to gather together or be fined.
“ How many people here are amateur or professional stats types”
I have a BSc majoring in Mathematics and also passed Associate level Actuarial exams, which include statistics.
But again, a long time ago, so I’m a bit rusty.
Davidwh
In QLD we must be the only place where you are required to gather together or be fined.
———-
What horrors have the extreme socialists visited upon your gentle capitalist person?
Davidwh
In bunches I presume ?
Five more cases down here in Tassie, all contracted on a cruise ship. That makes 47 in total, more than half of which come from cruise ships.
Rather than bother about schools and hairdressers and whatever, next time we have a potential pandemic on our hands, the first thing we need to do is to shut down the cruise industry immediately.
Poroti no doubt there will be lines drawn which everyone will, of course, strictly adhere to. We Bananabenders are pretty smart folks 🙂
Rakali I’m no longer a capitalist since retirement. No more negative gearing, franking credit refunds or tax rorts. Sad really but life goes on (hopefully).
Basically I’m a retired grey nomad for now. 🙂
Many of our confirmed cases have been tracked to a cruise ship, including one in our town, linked to the Ruby Princess.
When you want the boats stopped……
I must admit, i always thought cruising was a small niche thing. I had no idea there were so many of these massive ugly ships transporting humans around.
It’s a pity some of the maritime indulgence isn’t spent on giving animals a better cruise on their way to slaughter.
BB
“William, when are you going to kick these Inquisitors off, or at least tell them to shut up?”
you know, racism is really easy to avoid.
I know it may be challenging for you, and I know you don’t want to be labelled racist… So perhaps if you learn what it is and how to avoid it, you won’t need to demand our excommunication.
Given the inadequacies of the multi-billion dollar Border Force we need to spend another multi-billions on a Cruise Force as its too much for the wee Border Forcers. Sad
We are spending billions on cruise force but they are still being designed and constructed.
Hi GG,
If you are still around would you mind shooting me an email so I can forward your email address to lizzie, so that she may contact you?
Thanks. 🙂
“Rakalisays:
Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 9:21 pm
I must admit, i always thought cruising was a small niche thing. I had no idea there were so many of these massive ugly ships transporting humans around.”
The last ten years or so it’s gone through a bit of a renaissance. This should put a stop to that.
“Dandy Murraysays:
Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 8:32 pm
Blobbit,
If you are familiar with Matlab, try out Julia”
I’ve been more an Excel and Mathematica person. Neither of which is great for stats.
Davidwh
Rakali I’m no longer a capitalist since retirement. No more negative gearing, franking credit refunds or tax rorts. Sad really but life goes on (hopefully).
———-
Actually poor socialist, as i am, i discovered that because of an inherited bundle of shares from my father, i had 12 years of franking credits owing to me?
I never really knew what shares were! I was horrified to discover that i was/am a filthy capitalist boomer.
Gotta love getting rid of red tape, and quashing unions.
The NSW Port Authority was warned in January of a ‘gaping hole’ in coronavirus biosecurity checks. This was no generic statement. This was specific for Corona Virus. Remind me who is running NSW.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/26/nsw-port-authority-warned-in-january-of-gaping-hole-in-coronavirus-biosecurity-checks