Six states’ Democratic primaries: live commentary

Joe Biden is very likely to win the Democratic nomination, with Sanders needing big breaks in today’s primaries. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont

11:50am Nate Silver on Washington’s count

11:40am In Mississippi, Sanders has 14.8% with all precincts in.  Mississippi has a large provisional vote, so Sanders may exceed the 15% threshold for statewide delegates once those votes are tallied.  Biden won every single county in the three M states.

11:32am However, there’s bad news for Sanders in Washington State.  The latest votes put Biden ahead by 34.8% to 33.5%, reversing a 0.2% Sanders lead in yesterday’s counting.  Dave Wasserman has called Washington for Biden.  Washington appeared demographically friendly to Sanders, and he may not be able to win another state-run primary.  There are few delegates to be decided by party-run primaries and caucuses.

11:24am Thursday In good news for Sanders, he’s the winner in North Dakota by a 53-40 margin.  ND was a party-run primary, not state-run.  There were only 14 polling places for the whole state, and just 14,400 votes total.  Left-wing activists are more likely to make up a greater share of turnout in such low-turnout affairs.

4:00pm Idaho CALLED for Biden.  He currently leads by 48-42 with 74% in.

3:53pm If Sanders stays in, next Tuesday is likely to be brutal for him.  Four big states vote: Florida, Ohio, Illinois and Arizona.  Given Biden’s dominance everywhere in Michigan, he is likely to crush Sanders.  14.5% of delegates will be awarded next Tuesday, taking us to 61.5% of all pledged delegates.

3:49pm In the delegate count at The Green Papers, Biden now leads Sanders by 845 to 706.  Overall popular votes are 37.6% Biden, 30.1% Sanders.

3:44pm With 68% reporting in Idaho, Biden leads by 47-42.  The bottom line, no matter what happens in Washington’s late counting, Idaho or North Dakota, is that Biden is dominating with black voters and both higher-educated and lower-educated whites.  Biden will clearly be the Democratic nominee to face Trump in November.

3:30pm With 22% reporting in North Dakota, Sanders leads Biden by 45-34.  But there are only 14 delegates in this small, strongly Republican state.

3:18pm With 50% reporting in Idaho, Biden leads Sanders by 47-41.

2:57pm Biden has won every county in Mississippi and Missouri, and is barely losing two counties in Michigan.  In the 2016 contest against Hillary Clinton, Sanders dominated in rural areas where there were many lower-educated whites.  Not against Biden.

2:50pm In Mississippi, Sanders’ vote has dropped to 14.9% with 97% in.  If his vote stays at that level, he will miss the 15% delegate threshold for statewide delegates.

2:48pm With all counties reporting initial postal votes in Washington, Sanders leads by just 0.2%, 32.7-32.5.  Many of these votes were cast when other candidates were still in.  I don’t think we will get the remaining votes today; we’ll have to wait a week or two for them to come in.

2:16pm In the first results from Idaho, Biden leads by 43-33.

2:14pm Washington uses an all-postal ballot.  Votes that arrive before election day are tallied as soon as polls close.  With an estimated 64% reporting, Sanders and Biden are tied at 32.8% each.

1:52pm Meanwhile in California, Sanders’ lead has dropped to 6.7% today from 7.0% yesterday and 9% on election night last week.

1:38pm Some good news for Sanders: the North Dakota postal vote has him winning by 40-26 over Biden, but Biden is likely to gain when election day votes report.  Meanwhile, Biden leads by 53-39 in Michigan (55% in), 59-34 in Missouri (66% in) and 81-15 in Mississippi (77% in).  If Sanders does not reach 15% in Mississippi, he will not qualify for statewide delegates.

12:17pm Biden is leading by 54-28 in Missouri with 6% reporting.  There’s a large vote for candidates who have dropped out, which should drop as more election day votes are counted.

12:06pm With all polls now closed in Michigan, and Biden 12 points up without much from Detroit (Wayne county), Michigan has been CALLED for Biden.

11:50am With 3% reporting in Mississippi, Biden has an 83-13 lead.  Most of what’s been counted is likely postal votes, which skew to Biden, but that’s a massive margin.

11:46am CNN analyst Harry Enten

11:43am Biden still leading by ten points in Michigan with 10% reporting.  Twitter commentary suggests Sanders is losing white lower-educated precincts that he won against Clinton in 2016.

11:27am Biden leads by 54.4-41.4 in Michigan with 4% reporting.

11:20am Biden leads by 85-11 in the first Mississippi results.

11:13am Remember that Democratic delegates are awarded proportionally with a 15% threshold.  So margins of victory matter, not just winning a state.  A massive win for Biden in Mississippi will earn him many delegates.

11:07am Based on exit polls, Mississippi and Missouri have been CALLED for Biden.

10:42am Wednesday Polls close at 11am AEDT in Missouri, Mississippi and North Dakota.  Michigan has two time zones, with the majority closing at 11am, while the western bit closes at 12pm.  Idaho and Washington close at 2pm.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

Democratic primaries will be held today in Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington State. The result will determine 352 of the 3,979 total pledged delegates (9% of the total). Michigan (125 delegates) and Washington (89) are the two biggest states voting. Polls close Wednesday between 11am and 2pm AEDT.

Last Tuesday, Joe Biden won ten states to four for Bernie Sanders. In the next two days, the two remaining contenders, Mike Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren, withdrew, leaving a two-candidate contest for the remaining delegates. Biden dominated the south, but also had surprise wins in Minnesota, Massachusetts and Maine.

The delegate count at The Green Papers gives Biden a 681 to 608 lead over Sanders, but this understates Biden’s advantage. Sanders has an advantage with left-wing Democrats and Latinos, but most of the southwestern states, where Latinos have a relatively high share of the population, have now voted.

In 2016, Sanders benefited from lower-educated white voters aversion to Hillary Clinton, something Donald Trump exploited in the general election. However, the Minnesota county results show that Biden performed well in rural regions, helping him to a nine-point statewide win. This implies that Biden has a greater appeal than Clinton to lower-educated whites.

Biden is winning black voters by massive margins, and he is winning both higher-educated and lower-educated whites. There are few states with a significant Latino population left. An exception is Florida, which votes with three other large states next Tuesday. However, Florida’s Latinos are far more conservative than Latinos in the southwest owing to the Cuban Americans. Florida is also demographically elderly. Florida polls have Biden crushing Sanders.

Biden leads Sanders by 51-35 in the RealClearPolitics national average in polls conducted since last Tuesday. Biden leads Sanders by 22 points in Michigan, and has a small lead in Washington, which should be Sanders’ strongest of the six states. In 2016, Sanders defeated Clinton in Michigan after a massive polling error, but he was performing much better then with lower-educated whites.

There’s also bad news for Sanders from California’s late counting, where his lead over Biden has been reduced from nine points on election night to seven. Late counting in California usually skews left, but many moderates did not vote early, withholding their vote until they knew Biden was the moderate candidate.

358 comments on “Six states’ Democratic primaries: live commentary”

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  1. “sprocket_says:
    Wednesday, March 11, 2020 at 6:45 pm
    This has been mentioned before…”

    Or maybe they just like his policies more, after careful consideration.

  2. Biden is going to be the people’s democratic implement. They are going to use him to dislodge Trump.

    He is the ideal opponent from Trump’s perspective – obviously immersed in swamp politics, a glass jaw, a fount of confusion and memory lapses, a long history of lying and bad policy calls (including – and this is crucial – repeatedly trying to cut Social Security). If Biden were a good person with a good policy record I would feel sorry for what this year is going to do to his reputation. He will be humiliated.

    I think that most centrists still don’t recognise that Trump, as grotesque and unfit for office as he is, is nevertheless a formidable political talent. Trump’s attacks on Biden will be sharp, pithy, relentless, and often hilarious. Biden won’t be able to hide from voters in the general election as he has been doing during the primaries.

  3. He is the ideal opponent from Trump’s perspective

    My critical thinking cap says no
    Trump has boosted bernie at every opportunity.
    Trump wanted to compete against bernie

  4. One third of democrat primary voters got it right.
    Everyone else got it wrong.

    10% of Australian voters who voted Greens got it right.
    Everyone else got it wrong.
    You get the drift.

    My view is that Nicholas is going to drop his Biden hate fest fast and start slagging Trump any month now. That is after he gets over what a political genius Trump is.

    The facts of the matter are that Sanders achieved fuck all during 30 years as a senator (except to build up his real estate portfolio) and has lost two primary races in succession. He contributed to Trump’s victory in the last POTUS election by delaying his exit and sucking oxygen from Clinton.

    Sanders’ second primary went WORSE than the first one so he does not seem to be able to learn from his defeats. Sanders so mismanaged his team that Warren refused to endorse him after she was bastardized by Sanders supporters.

    Biden won two terms as VEEP, was part of the team that generated massive achievements under Obama, and has now thrashed Sanders in the Dem primaries. Thrashed.

    According to N this means that everyone except N is wRONg.

  5. GG
    There is a bit of enthusiasm needed in the US because of optional voting. You can be the favoured candidate of the majority but if they don’t turn up, you lose.

    I’m obviously not responsible representative of a great number of US voters so I don’t matter much. I’d turn up to vote out Trump rather than to vote in Biden.

  6. Incredible results. Biden is absolutely crushing Bernie.

    Thank you Dem voters for giving the party its best shot (from the available field of candidates) to defeat Trump in November.

  7. Nicholas
    I think Trump is less likely to beat Biden than Sanders. Sanders would have done a lot more good than Biden as POTUS IMHO, but he was more high risk, high reward.

  8. A Republican voter states his case…

    “This morning, I proudly voted for @JoeBiden in the #MissouriPrimary. After 30 years of voting, it was my first time voting for a Democrat in the Presidential primary and it was an honor to do so. I am voting for decency and integrity to restore the heart & soul of America.”

    This is something Bernie Sanders simply can’t garner, and is what is pointing to a landslide in November.

  9. As former Missouri Democratic senator Claire McCaskill put it, “If Biden is able to bring back home these white, non-college educated voters together with the suburban women who have had it up to here with the nonsense of Trump, and African American voters, no wonder Donald Trump doesn’t want him to be the nominee.”

    However, it was in Michigan where the magnitude of Biden’s victory became clear. He did better in virtually every county compared to Hillary Clinton in 2016. As he did in Missouri and Mississippi, Biden swept up African American voters (66 percent), white college-educated voters (51 to 46) and white non-college-educated voters (50 to 45). All in all, Sanders did 20 points worse in 2020 than he did four years ago. Again, women overwhelmingly chose Biden (57 to 39 percent).

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/10/bidens-coalition-is-making-him-unstoppable/

    White non-college educated voters in that age demographic went for Trump, didn’t they? Looks like they could be coming back home to Democrats.

  10. sprocket_ @ #295 Wednesday, March 11th, 2020 – 6:45 pm

    This has been mentioned before, but the reason Biden is gaining up to 84% of the African American vote in some states is simple.

    He spent 8 years as VP to a Black President. 8 years. No undermining, deferential, supportive, respectfull in the extreme.

    8 years of being 2IC to a black man. The African American voters, well organised as they are, know this and are wont to reward this white man who has proven himself to them.

    I’ve mentioned it a couple of times. It was an eye opener for me, and a beautifully presented argument, tribute even. It highlighted something I should have been more sympa with (being gay and all) – it’s incredibly difficult, if not impossible, to walk in someone else’s shoes, to think and feel like them, to understand just who and where they are.

  11. ‘The Democrats” have not handed anything to anyone. Voters have chosen Biden. They walked away from Sanders in droves. This is an exercise in popular choice by the customary means.

    The result is about as fair as it gets in the US system.

    Sanders’ loss is legit. Nobody stole it from him.

    The question now is how are he and his supporters going to respond?

    –––––––

    C@tmomma

    Yes, wouldn’t it be hilarious if Trump won the Popular Vote, ‘by miles’ but lost the Electoral College?

    Just imagine if that margin on the losing popular vote was about 3 million.

    I’d pay to see that. 🙂

  12. 😀

    Garrett Haake@GarrettHaake
    ·
    9h
    Just the way the Biden team planned it, in four easy steps:

    1. 4th Iowa
    2. Lull them to sleep with 5th in NH
    3. Distant second in NV…
    4. Dominate nearly everywhere else.

    Classic primary strategy.

  13. Confessions @ #320 Wednesday, March 11th, 2020 – 9:57 pm

    😀

    Garrett Haake@GarrettHaake
    ·
    9h
    Just the way the Biden team planned it, in four easy steps:

    1. 4th Iowa
    2. Lull them to sleep with 5th in NH
    3. Distant second in NV…
    4. Dominate nearly everywhere else.

    Classic primary strategy.

    Once the moderate Democrats decided they needed to focus and decide their actual candidate it was all over.

  14. Look on the bright side – Sanders can’t lose.

    If Biden is the nominee but loses, that proves Sanders would have been the better choice.

    If Biden wins that just shows the US would have gone even further left. Just imagine what Sanders would have been able to do.

  15. “Once the moderate Democrats decided they needed to focus and decide their actual candidate it was all over.”

    Obviously nobody would plan it this way – wouldn’t you rather lock up all your colleagues’ endorsements way beforehand like Hillary did? – but it appears to have turned out really well for Biden and the Democrats. He can roll out former rivals who can act as surrogates and they can all turn their supporters towards a common goal. Hopefully it feels like enough people got to have a say and can still support their favourite as they support Biden.

    I said it last thread but I am in awe of the way Klobuchar delivered her home state to Biden literally overnight.

  16. Nicholas says:
    Wednesday, March 11, 2020 at 8:04 pm

    Biden is going to be the people’s democratic implement. They are going to use him to dislodge Trump.

    He is the ideal opponent from Trump’s perspective – obviously immersed in swamp politics, a glass jaw, a fount of confusion and memory lapses, a long history of lying and bad policy calls (including – and this is crucial – repeatedly trying to cut Social Security). If Biden were a good person with a good policy record I would feel sorry for what this year is going to do to his reputation. He will be humiliated.

    I think that most centrists still don’t recognise that Trump, as grotesque and unfit for office as he is, is nevertheless a formidable political talent. Trump’s attacks on Biden will be sharp, pithy, relentless, and often hilarious. Biden won’t be able to hide from voters in the general election as he has been doing during the primaries.

    You’re obviously looking forward with some relish to a reprise of Trump’s last win.

    In this respect, you’re opposed to the hopes of the majority of US voters – to the hopes of the millions of working people, women of every social and economic rank, of the many millions of African Americans and Latinos – who actually know Trump and know what it is to live in his dystopia. They know and will ignore his shtick…the shtick that you have fallen for, the shtick you hope to see re-enacted. They will vote for a Democratic President…for the party that you so despise. The Democratic Party is not perfect. But it will rise to this challenge. It will bring down Trump. Just watch.

    Then one day you might wake up and discover to your amazement that the sun does not shine out of your sorry arse. Find a clue, N.

  17. “last night’s disappointing result for Sanders suggested that his victory four years ago may have had more to do with dislike for the former secretary of state than his own strength in the rust belt. ”

    Interesting observation in the Guardian live blog. Probably some truth to it.

  18. Sanders is sticking around to drag Biden to the left.

    Those far left doctrinaires just love to give their Bushes, their Trumps, their Johnsons and their Morrisons a leg up.

  19. Max Boot, a NeverTrumper writing for WaPo nails the meta narrative

    “Two weeks ago Biden was expected to lose. Now he is all but certain to be the nominee.

    There are many reasons why, but the biggest may be that he was more likable than Bernie.

    Trump should be terrified because Biden is also way more likable than him.”

    And at 11am AEDT Trump will be making a major statement on coronavirus and his administration’s response. Can he skip the boasting and shitcanning for one time and announce something useful for the parlous State his nation and the world is in?

  20. sprocket_ @ #328 Thursday, March 12th, 2020 – 7:08 am

    Max Boot, a NeverTrumper writing for WaPo nails the meta narrative

    “Two weeks ago Biden was expected to lose. Now he is all but certain to be the nominee.

    There are many reasons why, but the biggest may be that he was more likable than Bernie.

    Trump should be terrified because Biden is also way more likable than him.”

    And at 11am AEDT Trump will be making a major statement on coronavirus and his administration’s response. Can he skip the boasting and shitcanning for one time and announce something useful for the parlous State his nation and the world is in?

    They’ll probably have to heavily sedate him again.

  21. Blobbit @ #322 Wednesday, March 11th, 2020 – 10:51 pm

    Look on the bright side – Sanders can’t lose.

    If Biden is the nominee but loses, that proves Sanders would have been the better choice.

    If Biden wins that just shows the US would have gone even further left. Just imagine what Sanders would have been able to do.

    Blobbit, you are making your Sanders Kool Aid drinks WAYYYY too strong.

  22. Tulsi Gabbard is still in the race, making my prediction that she will run as a 3rd party spoiler candidate look more likely.

  23. Rick Wilson@TheRickWilson
    ·
    3h
    Bernie “ Donald Trump must be defeated and I will do everything in my power to make that happen.”

    Except, of course, leave a primary he can’t win and in which his presence will harm the nominee and help re-elect Trump.

    Bernie is Trump’s best ally and his relelction insurance.

  24. From the NY Times daily email, this is good news. I’ve long said Trump is the strongest motivation for voters to get out and vote. Hopefully the trend continues right through until November.

    In 2017 and 2018, Democratic voter turnout surged in one election after another. Those displays of enthusiasm were a leading indicator of the 2018 midterm results, in which Democrats won a resounding victory in House elections.

    After the first few contests of the 2020 primary elections, the turnout picture wasn’t so clear, and political commentators wondered whether that was a bad sign for Democrats. But in the last several primaries the picture has become much clearer. The news for Democrats is excellent: Turnout is up, way up.

    About 1.7 million Michigan residents cast ballots in the Democratic primary yesterday, up roughly 40 percent from 2016. Turnout has also been up substantially in California, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and elsewhere.

    The surge doesn’t seem to be a result of enthusiasm for any one Democratic candidate. Many Democratic voters, after all, spent months undecided about and uninspired by the current field. Instead, turnout appears to have surged because Democrats have rallied around Joe Biden as the candidate most likely to defeat President Trump — and because they remain very energized about beating Trump.

  25. “Two things happened on Tuesday in Michigan. First, Democratic turnout exploded. Second, Biden performed far better with key demographic groups than Clinton did four years ago. If either one of those things happen in November, Trump will have a difficult time winning the state again. If both things happen, the President can kiss Michigan’s 16 electoral votes goodbye—and with them, more than likely, the electoral votes of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.”

    “There goes the White House.”

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/11/michigan-romp-shows-biden-could-rebuild-democrats-blue-wall-vs-trump-125489

  26. “Blobbit, you are making your Sanders Kool Aid drinks WAYYYY too strong.”

    No, no. Sanders in like Obi Wan Kenobi. If you strike him down, he just becomes stronger.

    ( Just in case there was any doubt, I think Sanders lost. Big time. I just think there’ll be some making claims like mine above)

  27. It now seems beyond doubt that Joe Biden will be the nominee to take on Donald Trump in November (and it wouldn’t surprise me if Bernie Sanders drops out either this week or next).

    With that in mind, how does Biden best engage with Trump? It seems like that he’ll take a “high road” approach, seeking to be the unity and consensus candidate, making an appeal to return decency, civility and honour to the White House and to public life. To my mind, that’s a pitch that may well resonate with the wider public, though of course we should always remember that negative campaigning is often more effective than being positive. Clearly Trump and the GOP will push hard on the meme that Biden is past it and borderline senile, but I suspect that Bloomberg will be funding superPACs to run some pretty ugly messaging on Trump, so hopefully all the mud being thrown becomes a bit of a wash.

    Then we need to think about what states might go which way. Any Democratic candidate is pretty much assured of the following states:
    California (55 Electoral Votes); Colorado (9); Connecticut (7); Delaware (3); Hawaii (4); Illinois (20); Maine* (4); Maryland (10); Massachusetts (11); Minnesota (10); New Jersey (14); New Mexico (5); New York (29); Oregon (7); Rhode Island (4); Vermont (4); Virginia (13); Washington (12); and Washington DC (3) – a total of 222, to which you can almost certainly add Michigan (16); Nevada (6); and New Hampshire (4) – a total of 248 Electoral Votes.

    Against that, Trump will be assured of the following states:
    Alabama (9); Alaska (3); Arkansas (6); Idaho (4); Indiana (11); Kansas (8); Kentucky (8); Louisiana (8); Mississippi (6); Missouri (10); Montana (3); Nebraska* (5); North Dakota (3); Oklahoma (7); South Carolina (9); South Dakota (3); Tennessee (11); Utah (6); West Virginia (5); Wyoming (3) – a total of 125, to which you can most likely add Georgia (16); Iowa (6); Ohio (18); and Texas (38), a further 78 EVs, bring the GOP total to 203.

    (*Note that both Maine and Nebraska partly apportion EVs by Congressional District, and it’s theoretically possible for the Dems to win one in Nebraska – like Obama did in 2008 – and for the GOP to win one in Maine – like Trump did in 2016.)

    This leaves us with just five states in play – Arizona (11); Florida (29); North Carolina (15); Pennsylvania (20); and Wisconsin (10). I’m quietly confident that Biden can carry Pennsylvania and the at-large Maine EV, which brings them to 269 – any one of the other available states would push him over the line. If the Dems can win Florida (very possible on polling and demographics, but the voting process there is entirely controlled by Republicans) then there’s probably no path to victory for Trump, and it could yet happen that Biden sweeps the board, even picking up the odd “Likely” GOP state, like Georgia or Ohio. Here’s hoping anyway.

    The next big question is about his running mate, which given Biden’s age, takes on an out-sized significance this year. For a long time, the smart money was on Stacey Abrams, but I’ve wondering now if he’ll go for Kamala Harris, as she has a bit more governing experience. Certainly I don’t think geographical concerns really matter any more (if they ever did – I’d say only LBJ on the JFK ticket in 1960 actually shifted a state), and this year especially I think age and gender/ colour matter more. Amy Klobuchar is another possibility. There’s also been some talk about Biden assembling a “team of rivals” in his cabinet, so we might yet see, say, Abrams (AG?), Buttigieg (State?), O’Rourke, Booker, Warren and others in there.

    But of course, Biden has to formally lock down the nomination, and then win the election first.

  28. Sanders same old, same old. Nader. The Greens. The Looney Left in British Labor.

    Since Sanders can’t win he wants to give Trump four more years.

    And the Old Arse has the hide to talk about the ‘fucha’ for the youf!

    The crazy old cuckfit reckons he has ‘won’ the ideological war.

  29. Hugo….if things really go to pieces with the virus and the economy the usual calculus will go out the door. The underlying movement to the Democrats – what used to be called a groundswell – pre-dates the pandemic. So Trump was in trouble anyway.

    Trump’s main political instrument has been Twitter. His tweeting has probably made the viral landscape better for the virus and worse for humans. The pandemic is changing everything. The personal, social and economic shocks will be immense and are by now basically unstoppable. The time to stop the pandemic was back in late January/early February. It’s now essentially too late. Trump’s denial, self-delusion, public-lying and prevarication will cost a lot of lives and a lot of jobs well before November. He’s a goner.

  30. Sanders does still have a (slim) shot at a victory, and as such is entitled to stay in the race for the time being, just as he was entitled to do so in 2016 and Clinton was entitled to do so in 2008 (and I can distinctly remember the demands that she drop out as Obama’s lead increased). But once there’s no mathematical path to victory left for him, it’s incumbent on him to avoid repeating the mistake he made in 2016, and instead immediately drop out and unreservedly endorse Biden. Anything else would simply show that his naysayers were totally correct about him.

  31. RI – yes, indeed. Coronavirus is wild card in politics, as in everything else. No one quite knows how will all end up, though from what I understand (and I’m no expert on infectious diseases) this is a highly contagious virus that spreads rapidly. It appears that most people don’t get that sick (though it’s cutting a swathe through the elderly and the infirm), and it could be that it simply needs to go around the world once for humanity at large to build some immunity – cases certainly appear to be levelling off in China and South Korea, for example. There also appears to be growing evidence that it’s an illness that thrives in cold weather (compare the current numbers of cases in the northern hemisphere to the southern), and so as the summer gets closer in the US and Europe, the spread eases off, though Trump’s handling of the whole thing has been so bullheaded and ham-fisted that that might not necessarily be so evident in the US.

    The longer term effects of COVID-19 are quite possibly more related to the panic than the illness. There seems little doubt now that the world economy that was beginning to stumble towards the end of 2019 will fall into recession, probably sooner rather than later (the talk is of a “short, sharp downturn”, before an upswing next year). If this eventuates, it removes Trump’s sole real brag, and probably assures that he’ll be “one and done”.

    The virus outbreak will also affect the election itself – neither Convention will probably go ahead, and rallies and street walks are also probably out, meaning much of the cut and thrust Of the election will need to happen via the media. So much of the Trump era has been unprecedented, so it may we’ll be fitting that it goes out in a similar fashion.

  32. No, no. Sanders in like Obi Wan Kenobi. If you strike him down, he just becomes stronger.

    That line always bothered me. I mean, how exactly did Obi-Wan end up becoming stronger? He became a ghost who appeared to give advice to Luke… something he could do and, in fact, did while he was alive. Seriously, he didn’t even use that power to, I don’t know, distract Darth Vader or TIE fighter pilots or something. I mean, if he was still alive, that would mean the Rebellion would have an experienced Jedi Knight in the field and Luke would probably have a bit more guidance, making the Emperor’s job of trying to convert him a lot harder.

    I know this isn’t on the topic of US politics but let’s be honest, it’s better than talks of dementia or snarling at Sanders for not dropping out.

  33. Good advice to Bernie Bros whingeing about not voting in November.

    Kathleen Smith@KikkiPlanet
    ·
    16h
    A reminder: women literally died fighting for their right to vote. Blacks literally died fighting for theirs. So if you’re a young white man whining at me today about how your gen needs “incentive” to vote, I’m likely gonna tell ya to fuck off with that shit.

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