Six states’ Democratic primaries: live commentary

Joe Biden is very likely to win the Democratic nomination, with Sanders needing big breaks in today’s primaries. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont

11:50am Nate Silver on Washington’s count

11:40am In Mississippi, Sanders has 14.8% with all precincts in.  Mississippi has a large provisional vote, so Sanders may exceed the 15% threshold for statewide delegates once those votes are tallied.  Biden won every single county in the three M states.

11:32am However, there’s bad news for Sanders in Washington State.  The latest votes put Biden ahead by 34.8% to 33.5%, reversing a 0.2% Sanders lead in yesterday’s counting.  Dave Wasserman has called Washington for Biden.  Washington appeared demographically friendly to Sanders, and he may not be able to win another state-run primary.  There are few delegates to be decided by party-run primaries and caucuses.

11:24am Thursday In good news for Sanders, he’s the winner in North Dakota by a 53-40 margin.  ND was a party-run primary, not state-run.  There were only 14 polling places for the whole state, and just 14,400 votes total.  Left-wing activists are more likely to make up a greater share of turnout in such low-turnout affairs.

4:00pm Idaho CALLED for Biden.  He currently leads by 48-42 with 74% in.

3:53pm If Sanders stays in, next Tuesday is likely to be brutal for him.  Four big states vote: Florida, Ohio, Illinois and Arizona.  Given Biden’s dominance everywhere in Michigan, he is likely to crush Sanders.  14.5% of delegates will be awarded next Tuesday, taking us to 61.5% of all pledged delegates.

3:49pm In the delegate count at The Green Papers, Biden now leads Sanders by 845 to 706.  Overall popular votes are 37.6% Biden, 30.1% Sanders.

3:44pm With 68% reporting in Idaho, Biden leads by 47-42.  The bottom line, no matter what happens in Washington’s late counting, Idaho or North Dakota, is that Biden is dominating with black voters and both higher-educated and lower-educated whites.  Biden will clearly be the Democratic nominee to face Trump in November.

3:30pm With 22% reporting in North Dakota, Sanders leads Biden by 45-34.  But there are only 14 delegates in this small, strongly Republican state.

3:18pm With 50% reporting in Idaho, Biden leads Sanders by 47-41.

2:57pm Biden has won every county in Mississippi and Missouri, and is barely losing two counties in Michigan.  In the 2016 contest against Hillary Clinton, Sanders dominated in rural areas where there were many lower-educated whites.  Not against Biden.

2:50pm In Mississippi, Sanders’ vote has dropped to 14.9% with 97% in.  If his vote stays at that level, he will miss the 15% delegate threshold for statewide delegates.

2:48pm With all counties reporting initial postal votes in Washington, Sanders leads by just 0.2%, 32.7-32.5.  Many of these votes were cast when other candidates were still in.  I don’t think we will get the remaining votes today; we’ll have to wait a week or two for them to come in.

2:16pm In the first results from Idaho, Biden leads by 43-33.

2:14pm Washington uses an all-postal ballot.  Votes that arrive before election day are tallied as soon as polls close.  With an estimated 64% reporting, Sanders and Biden are tied at 32.8% each.

1:52pm Meanwhile in California, Sanders’ lead has dropped to 6.7% today from 7.0% yesterday and 9% on election night last week.

1:38pm Some good news for Sanders: the North Dakota postal vote has him winning by 40-26 over Biden, but Biden is likely to gain when election day votes report.  Meanwhile, Biden leads by 53-39 in Michigan (55% in), 59-34 in Missouri (66% in) and 81-15 in Mississippi (77% in).  If Sanders does not reach 15% in Mississippi, he will not qualify for statewide delegates.

12:17pm Biden is leading by 54-28 in Missouri with 6% reporting.  There’s a large vote for candidates who have dropped out, which should drop as more election day votes are counted.

12:06pm With all polls now closed in Michigan, and Biden 12 points up without much from Detroit (Wayne county), Michigan has been CALLED for Biden.

11:50am With 3% reporting in Mississippi, Biden has an 83-13 lead.  Most of what’s been counted is likely postal votes, which skew to Biden, but that’s a massive margin.

11:46am CNN analyst Harry Enten

11:43am Biden still leading by ten points in Michigan with 10% reporting.  Twitter commentary suggests Sanders is losing white lower-educated precincts that he won against Clinton in 2016.

11:27am Biden leads by 54.4-41.4 in Michigan with 4% reporting.

11:20am Biden leads by 85-11 in the first Mississippi results.

11:13am Remember that Democratic delegates are awarded proportionally with a 15% threshold.  So margins of victory matter, not just winning a state.  A massive win for Biden in Mississippi will earn him many delegates.

11:07am Based on exit polls, Mississippi and Missouri have been CALLED for Biden.

10:42am Wednesday Polls close at 11am AEDT in Missouri, Mississippi and North Dakota.  Michigan has two time zones, with the majority closing at 11am, while the western bit closes at 12pm.  Idaho and Washington close at 2pm.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

Democratic primaries will be held today in Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington State. The result will determine 352 of the 3,979 total pledged delegates (9% of the total). Michigan (125 delegates) and Washington (89) are the two biggest states voting. Polls close Wednesday between 11am and 2pm AEDT.

Last Tuesday, Joe Biden won ten states to four for Bernie Sanders. In the next two days, the two remaining contenders, Mike Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren, withdrew, leaving a two-candidate contest for the remaining delegates. Biden dominated the south, but also had surprise wins in Minnesota, Massachusetts and Maine.

The delegate count at The Green Papers gives Biden a 681 to 608 lead over Sanders, but this understates Biden’s advantage. Sanders has an advantage with left-wing Democrats and Latinos, but most of the southwestern states, where Latinos have a relatively high share of the population, have now voted.

In 2016, Sanders benefited from lower-educated white voters aversion to Hillary Clinton, something Donald Trump exploited in the general election. However, the Minnesota county results show that Biden performed well in rural regions, helping him to a nine-point statewide win. This implies that Biden has a greater appeal than Clinton to lower-educated whites.

Biden is winning black voters by massive margins, and he is winning both higher-educated and lower-educated whites. There are few states with a significant Latino population left. An exception is Florida, which votes with three other large states next Tuesday. However, Florida’s Latinos are far more conservative than Latinos in the southwest owing to the Cuban Americans. Florida is also demographically elderly. Florida polls have Biden crushing Sanders.

Biden leads Sanders by 51-35 in the RealClearPolitics national average in polls conducted since last Tuesday. Biden leads Sanders by 22 points in Michigan, and has a small lead in Washington, which should be Sanders’ strongest of the six states. In 2016, Sanders defeated Clinton in Michigan after a massive polling error, but he was performing much better then with lower-educated whites.

There’s also bad news for Sanders from California’s late counting, where his lead over Biden has been reduced from nine points on election night to seven. Late counting in California usually skews left, but many moderates did not vote early, withholding their vote until they knew Biden was the moderate candidate.

358 comments on “Six states’ Democratic primaries: live commentary”

Comments Page 6 of 8
1 … 5 6 7 8

  1. Donald Trump will not be worried about facing Joe Biden. Biden has immense liabilities, including his lack of mental acuity, his terrible policy record, his history of lying about that record, the influence-peddling antics of his family, his history of making up stories to make himself look good. There is no other candidate Trump would find easier to defeat. And having this weak candidate as the presidential nominee hurts all of the down-ballot Democrats because ticket-splitting is rare these days.

  2. Biden wins Idaho. That four from four of the declared primary votes tonight, with Washington neck-and-neck and North Dakota mystifying slow to count. By any measure that’s a great night for Biden, and a correspondingly terrible one for Sanders. My guess is that Sanders will stay in until next week, as he seems to think that he’ll wipe the floor with Biden in Sunday’s debate. My guess is that probably won’t any differewnce next Tuesday, as the states voting are all Biden territory anyway.

  4. Ah, Propeller Cap Boy – if any of those matters were actually ‘a thing’, then Biden would piss it in against Trump. You are – unintentionally- writing pure comedy gold.

    In truth the problem for Democrats – and it is In my view a truly epic risk – is that ‘Sleepy Joe’ simply may not energise enough barely engaged (ie. real life human being and not us political tragics – or should I say the political enthusiasts who participate in the Primaries) to actually front up at a long queue to vote in the GE in November. If enough folk ‘forget’ to get off the couch in the urbs’ and cities of the rust belt then all the Trumpian enthusiasts in the rural and small towns could ‘steal it’ again.

  6. Take all of the weaknesses of Hillary Clinton in 2016 and add two things: pronounced cognitive decline, and serial inappropriate touching of women. That is Joe Biden. Democrats are choosing their weakest candidate…. yet again.

  7. AE,

    Everywhere I read the number of voters participating is well up
    and the voters who avoided Clinton in 2016 have returned.

    So, the take out from today is that Biden has enthused Democrat supporters.

    So, maybe time for you to look at the numbers and moderate your cynicism.

  8. Nicholas says:
    Wednesday, March 11, 2020 at 3:24 pm
    Well it’s official: the world will not prevent a temperature rise of more than 2 degrees Celsius. Even if Joe Biden wins the presidency, nothing effective will be done about global heating in time to prevent cataclysmic scenarios. In addition, the Democrats have handed the Republicans a great opportunity to win a lot of elections this year.

    Not only bitter but also twisted, N.

    ‘The Democrats” have not handed anything to anyone. Voters have chosen Biden. They walked away from Sanders in droves. This is an exercise in popular choice by the customary means. Think critically about that.

    Biden is going to be the people’s democratic implement. They are going to use him to dislodge Trump. This is not complicated.

  9. I’m still predicting Trump to win in November by miles. The only thing that might stop him is if COVID-19 wrecks the economy in the meantime, which I regard as unlikely (Hurt a bit, yes. Wreck, no.)

  10. AE – I suspect that you are confusing your own lack of enthusiasm for Joe Biden with that of the average punter. I’m sure you will agree that fit into the paradigm of the “politically engaged” (or else, why would you post on PB?). Biden, for sure, probably doesn’t excite most of us on here, but the evidence that we have so far is that Biden is in fact is driving (or maybe Trump is, or maybe both) a greatly increased engagement among voters who mostly vote Democratic, and also among some moderate Republicans. The turn-out figures in the sleepy suburbs of the swing states that have voted so far (eg North Carolina, Michigan, Virginia, Minnesota) have been well up on 2016, as has turn-out in numerous special elections, and the mid-terms of 2018. The evidence is that the Dems are psyched about this election, and are turning up to vote in high numbers, irrespective of the candidate. What Biden appears to be bring to the table are a lot of cross-over votes from moderate Republicans who can’t stand Trump. Whether that holds in November remains to be seen, but the evidence so far is that the voters that you worry about almost certainly will turn up in November.

  11. Nicholas says:
    Wednesday, March 11, 2020 at 4:43 pm
    Take all of the weaknesses of Hillary Clinton in 2016 ….

    ….‘Cept for a couple of things. Voters that did not support Clinton in 2016 have rolled up to vote for Biden in 2020. Voters that opted for Sanders/Trump last time are shifting to Biden this time.

    Biden is attracting votes. Sanders is losing them.

    Consider that. Apply some critical thinking. Find a clue.

  12. Nicholas
    “And having this weak candidate as the presidential nominee hurts all of the down-ballot Democrats because ticket-splitting is rare these days.”

    That’s not the point. The concern held by Democrats is that Sanders would have suppressed turn-out by moderate voters.

  14. I am not going to be making any prediction for November because it is ages away and with the economy being all over the place and a pandemic happening, who knows what will happen in the meantime. Not to mention we haven’t even begun to see the Republicans campaigning.

  16. Ante-Meridien – It’s almost impossible for any Republican to win a Presidential election “by miles” – the path to victory through the Electoral College for GOP for them is actually very narrow, and they have only won the popular vote (in 2004) once in 20 years. As a loose rule of thumb, any Democrat is pretty much assured of 203 Electoral Votes versus the GOP’s 125. If we add in the “likely” states, the score gets to Dems 228 to Repubs 203, which means that the GOP needs to basically sweep nearly all of the remaining states. Trump managed that feat despite losing the popular vote by 3 million in 2016, of course, but most of the time, those swing states (to wit, Arizona, Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and the single CD EV in each of Maine and Nebraska) are going to split both ways. The Dems only lost Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin last time, for example, by very narrow margins, and it was the first time that any of them hadn’t voted Dem since 1988. Likewise, Florida and New Hampshire are always close either way. Meanwhile, both Arizona and North Carolina are trending Blue due to demographic changes (granted that somewhere like Wisconsin might be heading the other way).

    So, yes, of course Trump can win, probably by the same route as last time, but it’s a very narrow needle to thread. If he does win, it will be very close, and in actual fact, if a blow-out is to occur, it’s more likely to happen the other way.

  17. I think one of the most amusing thing about the last couple of weeks is the bewilderment and earnest deep dives to try and explain how a charismatic, well-liked Vice President to the charismatic well-liked President who was the last guy before the Trump era would be the Democrats’ preferred option. There has been some real head-scratching on this, like it’s some sort of complex riddle.

  21. Its easy to see the establishment thinking behind Biden.

    Establishment boss Hillary didnt win, so they push someone to be their puppet.

    Biden doesnt have a chance to beat one of their countries worst leaders, its tragic democrats cant see it, they have learnt nothing.

  22. It’s funny how hard leftists always are yelling “LET THE PEOPLE BE HEARD!” and are the loudest proponents for democracy, until voters don’t vote the way they want, then it’s “No, not like that. Stop rigging it imaginary boogeyman. Ok, fewer people vote please. Just the ones we want.”

  23. bug1
    That’s exactly like the Greensplainers who reckon that if Labor would only do what the Greens want them to do – which is support 100% of Greens policies – then Labor would form the next government.

  28. Biden has faced very little scrutiny during the primaries. All of his rivals have been gentle on him – there was little to nothing about his conservative record on economic policy, social policy, foreign policy, his support for credit card companies at the expense of consumers, his habit of touching women inappropriately, the influence-peddling of his family, the problems with his cognition. He will not be a strong general election candidate because Trump will be merciless and highly effective at exploiting these immense liabilities. Sanders does not have liabilities in terms of policy, authenticity, personal behaviour, and cognitive ability.

    Democrats have not learned much since 2016. That is a tragic situation – not just for Americans, but for the world that will wrecked by climate catastrophes.

  29. All of his rivals have been gentle on him

    Your cult literally spent the last week trying to convince everybody he had dementia.

  30. Sanders does not have liabilities in terms of policy, authenticity, personal behaviour, and cognitive ability.

    Sanders liabilities seem to be that he’s just not popular
    The only people who haven’t learned from 2016 are people like you
    Viva the revolution

  31. Ante Meridian @ #258 Wednesday, March 11th, 2020 – 4:44 pm

    I’m still predicting Trump to win in November by miles. The only thing that might stop him is if COVID-19 wrecks the economy in the meantime, which I regard as unlikely (Hurt a bit, yes. Wreck, no.)

    Yes, wouldn’t it be hilarious if Trump won the Popular Vote, ‘by miles’ but lost the Electoral College? 🙂

  33. I swear some of Sanders’s more *devoted* fans think he is some ageless adonis whose words make even the most stoic weep in ecstasy. This is not normal. The fact they couldn’t even slightly imagine any shortcomings he’d have might have contributed to his loss.

    Seriously, I honestly believe they think a Sanders nomination would go like this:

    Trump (desperately): “Umm… Sanders is a spooky socialist!”
    Sanders: “Let me explain to you what it really means to be that…”
    (One stump speech later)
    Trump: (falls to the ground) “I cannot compete with that. I concede.”
    Mitch McConnell: “Wow. Thank you for identifying the issues that actually matter for me and my colleagues. We only are Republicans because we don’t like identity politics. Let us help you pass Medicare 4 All.”
    (Neera Tanden, Hillary Clinton, Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi all jump off a building somewhere)

  34. Rational Leftist @ #284 Wednesday, March 11th, 2020 – 6:10 pm

    I swear some of Sanders’s more *devoted* fans think he is some ageless adonis whose words make even the most stoic weep in ecstasy. This is not normal. The fact they couldn’t even slightly imagine any shortcomings he’d have might have contributed to his loss.

    Seriously, I honestly believe they think a Sanders nomination would go like this:

    Trump (desperately): “Umm… Sanders is a spooky socialist!”
    Sanders: “Let me explain to you what it really means to be that…”
    (One stump speech later)
    Trump: (falls to the ground) “I cannot compete with that. I concede.”
    Mitch McConnell: “Wow. Thank you for identifying the issues that actually matter for me and my colleagues. We only are Republicans because we don’t like identity politics. Let us help you pass Medicare 4 All.”
    (Neera Tanden, Hillary Clinton, Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi all jump off a building somewhere)

    How to make a Bulgarian Omlette.

    First, steal an egg!

  35. GG
    True. It’s not surprising he didn’t generate enough support from a party he doesn’t belong to. Frankly he did very well to get as close as he did. Can’t say I’m too enthused by Biden.

  36. Can’t say I’m too enthused by Biden.

    You don’t have to be. It’s the people who will come out and vote for him that need to be.

  39. Diogenes @ #286 Wednesday, March 11th, 2020 – 6:19 pm

    GG
    True. It’s not surprising he didn’t generate enough support from a party he doesn’t belong to. Frankly he did very well to get as close as he did. Can’t say I’m too enthused by Biden.

    If you haven’t noticed, all elections narrow to a competition about certain issues du jour. Policies are merged because the mainstream Parties are competing for the same voter who flip on something that peeves them.

    So, in the end, it’s not about enthusiasm. It’s about who is the best option.

    Biden is the best option imho because I think he can win and at least attempt to restore US credibility in this world.

  40. ‘GG

    Biden is the best option imho because I think he can win and at least attempt to restore US credibility in this world.’

    IMHO, he only has to be the POTUS and breathe to achieve that outcome. Anything more would be a bonus.

  41. To be fair, there were quite a few people less than impressed about Bill Clinton in 1992. He ran as a dry centrist (even in the Dem primaries), his first appearance on the national stage was awkward and longwinded, his start in the primaries was less than stellar, scandals seemed to follow him everywhere, he was running against an incumbent who threw everything at him, he didn’t balance his ticket with a more liberal non-southerner etc.

  42. Not saying Biden is Clinton or it will go the same way. Just that not every Dem President has risen in a wave of Obama-level excitement.

  45. This has been mentioned before, but the reason Biden is gaining up to 84% of the African American vote in some states is simple.

    He spent 8 years as VP to a Black President. 8 years. No undermining, deferential, supportive, respectfull in the extreme.

    8 years of being 2IC to a black man. The African American voters, well organised as they are, know this and are wont to reward this white man who has proven himself to them.

  46. And that remark of mine about Obama-level excitement is not even that accurate. In the general, definitely but he only narrowly won the 2008 Democratic primaries.

  47. And I like the way Biden said ‘You’re full of shit’ to the gun owning dude in the hard hat.

    He just has to say this to Trump during one of the debates and it will go viral, and lead the news for the cycle. He will say what everyone has been thinking for the best part of 4 years – Trump is ‘full of shit’.

  48. And I like the way Biden said ‘You’re full of shit’ to the gun owning dude in the hard hat.

    I think he needs to be careful with that, TBH. He has had a habit of snapping back at hecklers and it isn’t as bold a look as he thinks it is. It’s enjoyable when you know the backstory of what’s going on but to someone looking at it without context, it looks like him angrily lashing out at regular people.

Comments Page 6 of 8
1 … 5 6 7 8

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *