Three things

The major parties in Victoria get fiddling to nobble the Greens in local government; candidates confirmed for Queensland’s Bundamba by-election; and Barrie Cassidy’s moustache strikes back.

Three things:

• The Victorian parliament has passed contentious legislation to change the process by which boundaries are drawn for local government elections, the effect of which will be an end to proportional representation in many councils and a return to single-member wards. This was passed through the upper house with the support of both major parties, and fairly obviously targets the Greens, whose local government footprint expanded considerably in 2016. The legislation is covered in greater detail by Ben Raue at The Tally Room. Relatedly, The Age reports Labor plans to endorse candidates across metropolitan councils at the elections in October, after doing so in only three councils in 2016. The Liberals in Victoria have never endorsed candidates.

• The closure of nominations for Queensland’s March 28 by-election for Bundamba on Tuesday revealed a field of four candidates representing the Labor, the LNP, the Greens in One Nation, just as there will be in Currumbin on the same day. You can read all about it in my election guides for the two seats, which are linked to on the sidebar.

• For those who have forgotten what a Labor election win looks like, Malcolm Farnsworth has posted four hours of ABC election night coverage from 1983 in two parts, here and here. The broadcast predates results at polling booth level and indicative two-party preference counts, which would have to wait until the 1990s, and without which it was difficult for analysts to read the breeze from partial counts in any but the most homogenous seats.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,957 comments on “Three things”

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  1. “Mexicanbeemersays:
    Tuesday, March 10, 2020 at 5:41 pm
    ML
    I understand that but anyone that turns down work runs that risk of never been called again.”

    The discussion about casual work seems to be falling into the hole that’s lots of discussion does. Take an extreme at either end and apply it to everyone.

    Of course casual work suits some people, and is probably even preferred for some. That doesn’t mean it’s ideal for most.

  2. MB

    Daughter looking for PT work while studying at uni. Can do 2 days.
    Position advertised: 2 days.
    BUT
    which 2 days remains unstated.
    Turns out it can be any 2 days in the week, at employer’s discretion.

    This means employer wants to own your time for the entire week, but only pay for 2 days.
    How is that fair?

  3. Douglas & Milko @ 5.03pm.

    “And I had a nice seat in economy upstairs in the A380.”

    If/when QF are able to reschedule your booking, just be aware that if the aircraft is one of the refurbished A380s, you will no longer have that upstairs economy seat. The new upper deck layout is for more business class seats and an expanded premium economy section. You may be lucky and get an upgrade 🙂

  4. lizzie
    “Just heard something great. In parts of England, people order a coffee for themselves & “1 hanging”.”

    Here it is called “suspended coffee”. I used to buy them at Quists, but they stopped saving them a couple of years ago.

  5. Blobbit
    Its only really ideal in some cases but unfortunately the way the labour market is managed is poor because the government ought to understand that not everyone will be working 40 hours a week with a quarterly bonus.

    ML
    Its not necessarily fair but that business might operate on an inconsistent bases or only needs a fill in when other staff are unavailable.

  6. Ballantyne,

    I think it must have been one of the last A380s not yet refurbished, so I thought I was clever. Unfortunately the fare I am travelling on is not eligible for upgrade – we have to take the cheapest.

  7. “Mexicanbeemersays:
    Tuesday, March 10, 2020 at 5:59 pm
    Blobbit
    Its only really ideal in some cases but unfortunately the way the labour market is managed is poor because the government ought to understand that not everyone will be working 40 hours a week with a quarterly bonus.”

    Indeed. Unfortunately, I think as far as casual employment goes, it’s swung too far in favour of employers.

    Particularly the user of “independent contractors”.

    We’re not all that far from the modern equivalent of standing outside the wharves, hoping you get a ticket for the day.

  8. MB
    I understand the needs of the business dictate this situation, but the fact that employers think this is reasonable is a reflection of how disempowered employees have become.
    If there was a shortage of good staff then the employer would need to adjust his requirements, making a mutually beneficial arrangement.

    I am reminded of times I worked as a casual high school teacher.
    Schools valued their good casual teachers, and these teachers valued these schools. More like the arrangement Bucephalus described as a uni student. Mutually beneficial.
    With current underemployment and increased casualisation, causing competition for jobs, I have witnessed casual staff (not in schools, I should add) get very badly treated.

  9. Precarious employment is far more widespread than used to be the case. Since stable employment is a necessary condition for a strong credit rating, the casually employed can seldom ever qualify for housing loans. The casually-employed also therefore the most numerous in the tenant class. Because their incomes are lower and more disrupted, they usually have the lowest savings, the least capital (taken in its widest meaning) and are lined up for least skilled jobs.

    But the LNP think this is cool. Precarious employment and economic disenfranchisement – these are the worker’s dream.

  10. The independent contractors are going to get screwed. Most earn more in a day that sickness allowance is a week…. And the government expects them to stay at home if they feel a little unwell….. The system is simply not going to cope with what is about to happen……

    For all the fun and games we have had with the great Toilet Paper crisis, this is going to get ugly…..

    People are going to loose their jobs, their homes and their lives….. And it is almost past the point of doing anything about it.

  11. Bucephalus:

    I always think it’s funny when people say Finland in the education debate but if you point out Shanghai you get shut down.

    The Shanghai students are “Heroes of the Communist Party” (or whatever, maybe “Heroes of the Revolution”). They’re not your average Jiangs.

    The Finnish children, on the other hand, are your average Jounis

  12. A year ago I worked next to a single mum in her forties, at a university.
    Casual admin, she had 3 days a week.
    She told me her position was under threat (yet another ‘restructure’). Losing her job would mean she could not pay the rent (she had no financial buffer) which would mean she would be living in her car with a child.
    Our state gov’t no longer accepts any responsibility for providing housing for such people.
    Newstart is a sick joke.
    I really felt distressed for her.
    Now, if she has to be quarantined for 14 days, she’ll be out of accomodation too.

  13. Compare and contrast how different people are treated by the Morrison government (two current SMH headlines):

    Porter: casual workers ‘paid extra’, not disadvantaged during outbreak
    Industrial Relations Minister argued casual workers are already prepared to take time off work while sick and paid well in lieu of leave entitlements.

    and:

    TV tradie Scott Cam defends size of taxpayer salary

  14. Boerwar @ #1813 Tuesday, March 10th, 2020 – 6:43 pm

    Hunt may have buggered this up…

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/10/coronavirus-response-a-shambles-doctors-and-patients-complain-of-confusing-processes

    I just saw the Channel 7 news and there are literally hundreds of people, sitting on the floor in some cases, in the Public Hospitals waiting to be tested for C-19 and all they have to protect them from someone who may have C-19 is a face mask!

    So, sitting on the floor, where C-19 may be sitting also, probably putting their hand to their eyes or mouth at some stage, if inadvertently, looks to me like the recipe for a petri dish!

  15. Unless you have been in touch with someone who has been travelling abroad, or who has been diagnosed with C-19, what is the point of rushing off to be tested?

  16. lizzie @ #1816 Tuesday, March 10th, 2020 – 6:51 pm

    Unless you have been in touch with someone who has been travelling abroad, or who has been diagnosed with C-19, what is the point of rushing off to be tested?

    I’m assuming (mother-of-all-fckups) that these people have some suggestive symptoms, and are concerned that they might have been in contact with a carrier who is otherwise not (yet) quarantined. You can well have been in touch with both those cohorts without knowing it.

    The list of symptoms on the NZ entry card that was posted here recently was a pretty broad net, for example.

  17. Lizzie,
    If you live in the north west of Sydney, and develop flu-like symptoms, you will want to be tested, for the sake of protecting your family.
    It’s gone beyond “have you recently flown back from China?”
    It’s now being transmitted between locals.

    It has happened in my family (the flu-like symptoms and the testing).

  18. D&M

    Just go this from Qatar airways who I regularly use

    Dear Sprocket_

    The safety, security and good health of our members is of the utmost importance to us.
    In light of the continually evolving COVID-19 (Coronavirus) situation, I wanted to personally update you, to ensure you’re informed so you can travel with confidence the next time you fly with us.

    Flexibility

    Qatar Airways has updated its travel policy so you can travel with confidence, offering you more flexibility and peace of mind. If you have booked or will book flights for travel up to 30 June 2020 you will be offered the flexibility to change your travel plans free of charge by altering the dates of your booking or exchanging your ticket for a travel voucher valid for one year. This includes award flights since we value every Qmile you’ve earned with us as a Burgundy member. So, if your plans change, rest assured that we are ready to support you.

    Hygiene

    Qatar Airways continues to maintain the highest hygiene levels onboard, because safe, clean travel remains our constant goal. Learn more about the measures being taken onboard here, including information about our air filtration systems that remove 99.97% of viral bacterial contaminants, as well as the IATA and WHO-approved products used for regular cleaning onboard.

  19. Just on Covid-19, I’m hearing that lockdowns and mandatory work from homes is ‘on the table’.

    As they say on social media, don’t @ me

  20. sprocket_ says:
    Tuesday, March 10, 2020 at 7:13 pm

    Just go this from Qatar airways who I regularly use

    Sprocket, similar to what I received as well.

    Dear nath

    The safety, security and good health of our members is of the utmost importance to us.
    In light of the continually evolving COVID-19 (Coronavirus) situation, I wanted to personally update you, to ensure you’re informed so you can travel with confidence the next time you fly with us.

    Flexibility

    Qatar Airways has updated its travel policy so you can travel with confidence, offering you more flexibility and peace of mind. If you have booked or will book flights for travel up to 30 June 2020 you will be offered the flexibility to change your travel plans free of charge by altering the dates of your booking or exchanging your ticket for a travel voucher valid for one year. This includes award flights since we value every Qmile you’ve earned with us as a Platinum member. So, if your plans change, rest assured that we are ready to support you.

  21. Assuming the two new Sydney schools with C19 infections have been sent home, around 8,000 Australians have now been asked to go home. I trust that all 8000 households have their Two Week Isolation Kits on hand.

    But we don’t know for sure just how many Australians are spending a fortnight at home because no-one appears to be keeping count at a national level. If they are, they are certainly not reporting it.

    I trust the 60 million Italians who have been sent home all have their Two Week Isolation Kits in place. Because there is no way the Italian Government is going to do home deliveries to 60 million people.

  22. ‘rhwombat says:
    Tuesday, March 10, 2020 at 7:31 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1871 Tuesday, March 10th, 2020 – 7:25 pm

    A Medscape article I read recently also mentioned the diarrhoea not commonly associated with C-19.

    2-5% in the Chinese data. SARS-CoV-2 in stool in >10%. Dunno if transmissible via faecal/oral. Not reported.’

    Faecal infections were discussed in Hong Kong in relation to transmissions downwards from floor to floor. It was also raised in relation to the Japanese cruise ship. I am unaware that either discussion made it into the literature.

  23. sprocket_ @ #1284 Monday, March 9th, 2020 – 4:59 pm

    And another outrageous grants program has emerged, $567m meant for ‘Indigenous disadvantage’ with money shoveled out the door to friendlies in the lead up to the election..

    “Mining giant Fortescue Metals,…

    …which is owned by the mining magnate Andrew “Twiggy” Forrest,…

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/09/mining-giant-given-millions-in-grant-by-coalition-from-fund-for-indigenous-disadvantage

    Where go the money troughs, so goes Twiggy’s insatiable disgusting snout. 🙁

    ––––––––––––––

    Cud Chewer @ #1333 Monday, March 9th, 2020 – 6:30 pm

    Bonza

    Australian money being plastic means it isn’t very absorbent.

    But it is washable and reusable. 🙂

    ––––––––––––––

    Boerwar @ #1764 Tuesday, March 10th, 2020 – 3:17 pm

    rhw
    Thank you.
    I have been appreciating your, OC’s and Dio’s contributions very much.
    I used to value moral courage over physical courage.
    Volunteering in a fever clinic combines both.
    Good on you!

    +1

    A question for the medicos/biologists: I know this virus can be killed by heat (at least 60ºC for 30 min). But can it also be killed by freezing? Or does it just go dormant?

    –––––––––––––

    lizzie @ #1791 Tuesday, March 10th, 2020 – 4:03 pm

    Avril @DocAvvers
    ·
    20m
    I was on casual wages through my first two uni degrees. I couldn’t save anything, because Austudy was so low I needed every cent of my pay for rent, utilities, public transport, and books. There were times I went without food. In what world does @cporterwa live?

    Porter, IIRC, comes from a rich family, and clearly has no farking idea of what it means to be poor, and denied any real opportunity to escape it. And equally clearly doesn’t want to know, as evidenced by his ruthless unapologetic prosecution of Robodebt when social services minister, against all warnings and cries of pain from those he was kicking.

  24. SMH “live” headline:

    Isolation period of 14 days to be reviewed in light of new study

    Australia’s Chief Medical Officer will consider reducing Australia’s 14-day quarantine period in the future following new scientific evidence that coronavirus symptoms appear after five days in 95 per cent of infections.

  25. OH is listening to Ch 9 news online. Morrison is promoting “Team Australia” (with him as the great and glorious leader no doubt).

  26. JM

    Porter comes from Liberal party “aristocracy” going back 3 generations. So yes, born with a silver spoon up his clacker.

  27. The coalition schooled Labor in the art of bullshit again today.
    Packaged up the bullshit, got in sneaky Pete (who all the punters know was the bestest treasurer ever!) to sit watching Scroot deliver the bullshit bomb.
    The punters will eat it up. It’s a feedback loop that confirms all their perceptions about Labor and the coalition.
    Some things never change.

  28. Wombat
    The fever clinics are excellent. But there is a twenty metre queue outside the clinic to get in at the RAH. The potential patients all stood closer than 1m apart and only two of the thirty or so people wore masks. Basically the queue was one giant viral culture medium. If you didn’t have coronavirus when you joined the queue, you probably had it by the time you got into the clinic.
    Typical SA Health.

  29. JM
    “ I know this virus can be killed by heat (at least 60ºC for 30 min). But can it also be killed by freezing? ”
    Freezing generally just puts the virus to sleep. About 90% survive one freeze thaw cycle.
    On a more philosophical point, some scientists argue that viruses aren’t alive as they don’t meet the strict definition for life (they need something genuinely alive to propagate).

  30. BW
    “I trust the 60 million Italians who have been sent home all have their Two Week Isolation Kits in place. Because there is no way the Italian Government is going to do home deliveries to 60 million people.”

    They don’t need to. Shops are still open. From the Guardian

    “While supermarkets will remain open, large shopping centres and department stores must close on public holidays and the day before public holidays.”

  31. ‘Blobbit says:
    Tuesday, March 10, 2020 at 8:20 pm

    BW
    “I trust the 60 million Italians who have been sent home all have their Two Week Isolation Kits in place. Because there is no way the Italian Government is going to do home deliveries to 60 million people.”

    They don’t need to. Shops are still open. From the Guardian

    “While supermarkets will remain open, large shopping centres and department stores must close on public holidays and the day before public holidays.”’

    Hopeless. What is the point of isolation if the isolationistas are not isolated?

  32. Diogenes says:
    Tuesday, March 10, 2020 at 8:03 pm
    Wombat
    The fever clinics are excellent. But there is a twenty metre queue outside the clinic to get in at the RAH. The potential patients all stood closer than 1m apart and only two of the thirty or so people wore masks. Basically the queue was one giant viral culture medium. If you didn’t have coronavirus when you joined the queue, you probably had it by the time you got into the clinic.
    Typical SA Health.

    Likewise in WA. The staff I met today were too few and were ill-prepared. The facilities were very rudimentary….well over 100 people sitting or standing together in poorly shaded areas, waiting for lengthy periods. The swabbing guidelines were not properly applied at triage, meaning people who should have been swabbed were not.

    They will need to get much better than this if they’re going to be effective at preventing community spread.

  33. mundo @ #1834 Tuesday, March 10th, 2020 – 7:59 pm

    The coalition schooled Labor in the art of bullshit again today.
    Packaged up the bullshit, got in sneaky Pete (who all the punters know was the bestest treasurer ever!) to sit watching Scroot deliver the bullshit bomb.
    The punters will eat it up. It’s a feedback loop that confirms all their perceptions about Labor and the coalition.
    Some things never change.

    And Labor could do what about this, Einstein? 🙄

  34. $30 million “public awareness” campaign coming up. Hope it won’t ask for donations to the Liberal Party (or maybe the bushfire fiasco taught them a lesson).

    The campaign seems to be a reaction to this: “The campaign follows complaints from some medical professionals about a lack of detailed and consistent information around how to handle people presenting with symptoms.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-10/coronavirus-update-xi-jinping-in-wuhan-italy-put-into-lockdown/12040668

  35. rhwombat @ #1827 Tuesday, March 10th, 2020 – 7:31 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1871 Tuesday, March 10th, 2020 – 7:25 pm

    A Medscape article I read recently also mentioned the diarrhoea not commonly associated with C-19.

    2-5% in the Chinese data. SARS-CoV-2 in stool in >10%. Dunno if transmissible via faecal/oral. Not reported.

    This is the article (Reuters Health Report), with link, about Diarrhoea C-19 findings:

    NEW YORK (Reuters Health) – Diarrhea is likely underestimated as a feature of disease caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), researchers from China report.

    Most patients with COVID-19 present with fever and cough, but the incidence of other clinical features varies across reports.

    Dr. Wei Qi from The Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University, Shijiazhuang, China and colleagues, using data from three reported studies, found that the incidence of leukopenia, fever, and diarrhea differed significantly among the studies, with diarrhea showing the most significant difference.

    Because the spike protein of the new coronavirus shares the same cell entry receptor ACE2 as the SARS coronavirus (known to exhibit fecal-oral transmission), they examined the expression profiles of ACE2 in various human tissues.

    ACE2 was highly expressed in proximal and distal enterocytes in the small intestine, as were two entry receptors for other coronaviruses, according to the online report in Gut.

    Based on these findings, the researchers propose that the incidence of diarrhea may be underestimated in previous investigations and that ACE2-expressing small intestinal epithelial cells might be more vulnerable to attack by the 2019 coronavirus.

    They note that the 2019 coronavirus, which shares epidemiological features of SARS, might also use fecal-oral transmission. “Thus,” the authors conclude, “future efforts at prevention and control must take into consideration the potential for fecal-mediated spread of this virus.”

    A recent online commentary in Lancet Gastroenterology and Hepatology also postulated enteric involvement of coronaviruses. Dr. Danson Yeo from Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore, one of the co-authors of that commentary, told Reuters Health by email, “Early reports of COVID-19 suggest approximately 10% present with gastrointestinal symptoms. Until more data emerge, physicians should have a high degree of suspicion in anyone with fever, gastrointestinal symptoms, and significant contact/travel history.”

    The possibility of enteric involvement has important infection control implications. “Coronaviruses are susceptible to antiseptics containing ethanol and disinfectants containing chlorine or bleach,” Dr. Yeo said. “This should be borne in mind when using hand-rub for cleaning of hands or using disinfectants for cleaning of the environment. Frequent hand washing and cleaning of the environment should be emphasized.”

    “We should approach this pandemic based on knowledge from studies that have been performed on previous coronaviruses, instead of waiting for new data to emerge before we react,” he said.

    Dr. Qi and co-author Dr. Qi Zhang from The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China did not respond to a request for comments.

    SOURCE: https://bit.ly/2TiTp6R Gut, online February 26, 2020 and https://bit.ly/2Tt41yR Lancet Gastroenterology and Hepatology, online February 19, 2020.

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