Three things

The major parties in Victoria get fiddling to nobble the Greens in local government; candidates confirmed for Queensland’s Bundamba by-election; and Barrie Cassidy’s moustache strikes back.

Three things:

• The Victorian parliament has passed contentious legislation to change the process by which boundaries are drawn for local government elections, the effect of which will be an end to proportional representation in many councils and a return to single-member wards. This was passed through the upper house with the support of both major parties, and fairly obviously targets the Greens, whose local government footprint expanded considerably in 2016. The legislation is covered in greater detail by Ben Raue at The Tally Room. Relatedly, The Age reports Labor plans to endorse candidates across metropolitan councils at the elections in October, after doing so in only three councils in 2016. The Liberals in Victoria have never endorsed candidates.

• The closure of nominations for Queensland’s March 28 by-election for Bundamba on Tuesday revealed a field of four candidates representing the Labor, the LNP, the Greens in One Nation, just as there will be in Currumbin on the same day. You can read all about it in my election guides for the two seats, which are linked to on the sidebar.

• For those who have forgotten what a Labor election win looks like, Malcolm Farnsworth has posted four hours of ABC election night coverage from 1983 in two parts, here and here. The broadcast predates results at polling booth level and indicative two-party preference counts, which would have to wait until the 1990s, and without which it was difficult for analysts to read the breeze from partial counts in any but the most homogenous seats.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,957 comments on “Three things”

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  1. I can’t believe that there are so many Labor supporters here who are against elite private schools. What about all the defenders of Shorten’s Xavier College? Or the fact that Victorian Education Minister James Merlino is basically a tool of the SDA/Catholic Education Office to guarantee the Catholic sector gets what it wants.

    Like with so many areas, the ALP need to purge the SDA from it’s body like a tick. It will fail in so may progressive areas until it does this.

    http://www.adogs.info/press/victoria-private-education-state-run-dlp-labor-government

  2. Bucephalus

    Schools are required to deliver a scheduled service – it’s called The Australian Curriculum and schools are required to comply with that as part of their registration.

    Yes, they are.
    But they are not funded like a GP practice.
    School funding is done on the flawed assumption that all students (apart from those the state designates as ‘special’) are equal, which, of course, they are not. Hence funding is per student (primary or secondary).
    But some students require far more support than others. Special support (of whatever type) requires time and expertise.
    “private” schools select their students before they arrive for day 1 at school. The “How-much-money-do-you-have” selection is the real big one (edit:and it correlates well with parental motivation), followed by the “I’m-sorry-but-we-can’t-cater-for-your-child’s-needs” selector (couched in appropriate soothing terms).

    If schools and teachers could bill for every service they provide then they may be closer to the GP model. They don’t, so they’re not.

  3. Maude Lynn,

    I couldn’t be bothered correcting all the errors in your post. You clearly no little of the private system and have had little to do with any private schools.

  4. Vote 1 for Baldrick to be Prime Minister. You know it makes sense. He’s smarter than Scotty from Marketing and his cunning plans are superiour to the Brainfarts R Us Party.

    Turnips for all with Baldrick.

  5. Casual employment has been almost steady over the last 25 years?
    It’s an LNP cost cutting exercise!.
    Imported from good old U.S.A.

  6. Pssst. BB, WWP and others in the Yammerer Collective (“Stale Pale Males against The Man (… but, not, y’know, the men)”). Top secret info smuggled out from under the iron heel of the CCP/AMA/Bilderberg/Murdorc cabal:

    Annals of Internal Medicine article (mainly from Johns Hopkins’ Bloomberg School of Public Health (!)) on incubation period for COVID-19. Based on 181 cases in China 04 Jan -24 Feb, 2020 (which was what could be confirmed from available data), median incubation period for COVID-19 is 5.1 days (95%CI 4.5-5.8d) & ~98% of those who will develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days (95% CI 8.2-15.6d).

    Non-tech version for people who whinge about stats on a psephology blog:

    (1) About half the people who get COVID-19 will show symptoms by ~5 days. With other colds & flu viruses ~ half will show symptoms by ~3 days. The (average) 2 days of asymptomatic transmission matter a lot.
    (2) ~ 0.1-0.5% (ie ~100-500/10,000 cases) of cases will develop symptoms after 14 days of active monitoring.

  7. @DocWSJames
    ·
    20m
    Watching @PatsKarvelas interview #ChristianPorter get feeling Fed Govt will introduce Legals for ppl intentionally spreading #coronavirus b4 anything regarding positive monetary assistance. Also Sickness benefits no longer index from 20th March #afternoonbriefing

  8. The cancellations of meetings are coming in thick and fast now. One international symposium in Japan was cancelled a few days ago.

    And now a local meeting in May has been postponed until August at least.

    And QANTAS has cancelled my flights to Europe in May. Apparently they will be in touch with other suggestions before the flight. But no refund or waiver of cancellation or rebooking fees.

  9. nath-
    Although there is overlap, “elite private schools” and “Catholic school sector” are not one and the same. Not all Catholic schools are “elite” (the one I attended was very much non-elite). Just something to keep in mind as you pursue your inveterate anti-Shorten vendetta.

  10. Fred South
    @fsouth45
    ·
    2h
    Just heard something great. In parts of England, people order a coffee for themselves & “1 hanging”.

    Homeless people can come in & ask “are there any coffees hanging?”, & have a free coffee.

    It also translates to a sandwich or whatever.

    Best thing I’ve heard in a while.

  11. http://amp.abc.net.au/article/9654334

    “Has the rate of casualisation remained steady at 25 per cent over the last 20 years? RMIT ABC Fact Check takes a close look at the numbers.

    The verdict

    Mr Laundy’s claim checks out, although it relies on a narrow definition of insecure work.

    Over the past 20 years (to 2017), the rate of casualisation has remained within a narrow band, hovering around 24 or 25 per cent of all employees, according to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.“

  12. Rex Douglas:

    [‘Pell better find a place to disappear to if he walks free on a technicality. People gonna go nuts !’]

    If the High Court finds in Pell’s favour, it must be accepted, even though such a result will be very difficult for the complainant and many others to come to terms with. The central question the HC will consider will be whether on the totality of the evidence, it was open to the jury to find Pell guilty beyond reasonable doubt. Appellate courts are very reluctant to overturn jury verdicts unless a substantial miscarriage of justice has occurred; otherwise, why have juries(?). I wouldn’t hazard a guess on the outcome, as others have. Rest assured, however, he won’t get up on a mere technicality; it has to be far more than that.

  13. rhw
    Thank you.
    I have been appreciating your, OC’s and Dio’s contributions very much.
    I used to value moral courage over physical courage.
    Volunteering in a fever clinic combines both.
    Good on you!

  14. Kakuru says:
    Tuesday, March 10, 2020 at 4:42 pm

    nath-
    Although there is overlap, “elite private schools” and “Catholic school sector” are not one and the same. Not all Catholic schools are “elite” (the one I attended was very much non-elite)
    ____________________
    Indeed. The Catholic System has the power to distribute the money it gets as it wishes. It operates a range of schools including elite schools such as Xavier College. There is no accountability on how that money is spent. The Catholic Education Office decides which of its schools gets elite facilities and which do not.

  15. I am also concerned that in around 10 days we will bet where Italy is now. I cannot see any obvious reason why it should be any different.

    Some of us flunkeys at work are murmuring about the lack of encouragement for work from home, and using technology to minimise close personal contact.

    We feel like we are holding our collective breath b before some sort of storm.

    Also, lucky that COVID-19 does not spread via internet. Had a meeting today with someone from near the North Ryde hotspot, and noticed they seems to develop a running nose hard way through. I really hope I have trained myself out of touching my face.

    Should not complain – far worse for HCW.

  16. rhwombat @ #1757 Tuesday, March 10th, 2020 – 4:38 pm

    (2) ~ 0.1-0.5% (ie ~100-500/10,000 cases) of cases will develop symptoms after 14 days of active monitoring.

    RHW, as a lurker I really appreciate your informed posts. Thank you.
    But just fact-checking you on the Maths here. Did you mean 1 to 5%? Or should that have been per 100,000 instead of 10,000?

  17. Mavis,

    The fact that the dissenting opinion in the Appeal Verdict was by possibly the most respected Criminal Law Jurorists in Australia carries a great deal of weight in the opinion of my friends who are Barristers who appear before the HCoA.

  18. ‘Douglas and Milko says:
    Tuesday, March 10, 2020 at 4:48 pm

    I am also concerned that in around 10 days we will bet where Italy is now. I cannot see any obvious reason why it should be any different.’

    I doubt it. It seems possible/probably that the Virus was doing community infections and was firmly embedded in the medical institutions before they got a proper handle on it in Italy. I doubt that the same is true in Australia.

  19. nath

    You will recall that the LNP initially proposed funding the Catholic system on the needs basis of all their schools but the political power of the Catholics overwhelmed them and they gave them a lot more money.

  20. If Pell walks, Pell walks. End of story.

    Except that Pell has never taken the sort of fall that any chief exec would take if hundreds of his workers were raping thousands of his clients. And those clients were kids.

  21. @Tony_Burke
    6m

    And the whole principle of having to take two weeks off isn’t because most people will feel too sick to work, it’s that even if they feel well enough to work, there’s a national interest in them not turning up. Since when was there a calculation for that within casual loading?

  22. Shellbell

    It can’t possibly be right that Qantas can unilaterally cancel your booking without giving you a refund

    I should have put that note carefully. they have cancelled my flights, but will apparently tell me at some stage what they will substitute. And I had a nice seat in economy upstairs in the A380.

    This is the email:

    We’re announcing further changes to our international network, across Asia, North America, the United Kingdom and across the Tasman.

    We will be reducing some services and using smaller aircraft, which means we can maintain overall connectivity, and ensure our customers are still able to reach their destinations. The changes will be extended from end-May until mid-September 2020.
    ……….
    To ensure you can book with confidence, we will offer a one-time fee-free change to new international flight bookings made between 10 – 31 March 2020, for travel before 30 June 2020, subject to availability. If the value of your rebooked flight is greater than that of your original booking, you’ll need to cover the fare difference. Changes must be made at least 3 days prior to travel, and the new journey must commence on or before 30 June 2020.
    …………………..

    We will be contacting Qantas and Jetstar customers affected by network changes in the coming weeks. Calls will be prioritised in order of travel date and due to the volumes of the changes, we kindly ask for you to wait to be contacted unless your travel is imminent.

    * International bookings: If you’re flying internationally, we will look to offer an alternative flight via another capital city, or on an alternative day with a partner airline.

    So, I guess they will tell me close to May the day and itinerary.

  23. “We are about to reap the whirlwind….25 years of increasing casual employment….”

    Yep. I worked for years as a casual. No sick leave, no rec leave, 17 week contracts, laid off every Christmas, never knew if my contract would be renewed in the new year.

    Of course, I would drag myself to work regardless of how ill I was.

    One in three workers in precarious employment.

    Rent to pay, bills, money to put food on the table.

    It takes a pandemic that essentially doesn’t discriminate to highlight how precarious our inequitable society is propped up.

  24. Bucephalus says:
    Tuesday, March 10, 2020 at 4:53 pm

    nath

    You will recall that the LNP initially proposed funding the Catholic system on the needs basis of all their schools but the political power of the Catholics overwhelmed them and they gave them a lot more money.
    ________________
    Yes that’s true. The Catholic Education Office do not want any supervision over where the money goes. Under the current arrangement the billions they get can be spent at their discretion. Poor Catholic schools can be kept derelict. Money can be spent on all kinds of causes, perhaps even moved overseas for various purposes. The options are endless.

  25. shell bell – they can and as seen they do. Who reads the fine print? At least in Australia we don’t have the horrid over-booking that occurs elsewhere.

  26. Coronavirus fears being exploited for phishing attacks

    While COVID-19, or the novel coronavirus, is capturing attention around the world, cybercriminals are capitalizing on the public’s desire to learn more about the outbreak. There are reports of phishing scams that attempt to steal personal information or to infect your devices with malware, and ads that peddle false information or scam products.

    In one example, a phishing email that used the logo of the CDC Health Alert Network claimed to provide a list of local active infections. Recipients were instructed to click on a link in the email to access the list. Next, recipients were asked to enter their email login credentials, which were then stolen.

  27. Pegasus – but you were paid a higher rate than a part-time or full-time employee. You were fairly compensated. If you didn’t like it then get a job that better suited you.

    I’ve worked casual for many years and in the gig economy for over a year and enjoyed the higher rates of pay and flexibility.

  28. One of the Big Boss Lies is that most casuals want to be casual and want to be screwed on conditions because they appreciate the flexibility.

    Most casuals would love to work full time or permanent part time.

    Most casuals would love to have the conditions that go with permanent employment.

    If anyone was wondering why Australian wages are stagnating, there are a range of reasons.

    One is the millions of Australian workers who are faced with the employment firing squad if they dare speak up.

  29. Porter is an idiot because casuals are only paid when they go to work so if there is no work due to a virus then they are not paid. This government doesn’t seem to have much real world experience.

    In some industries being casual makes sense because of the nature of the work and for many it is a good foot in the door but those same industries are depended on demand.

  30. Boerwar,

    When I was at Uni there was no way that I wanted to be full-time or permanent-part-time. I worked three and four different Casual jobs at the same time juggling them with study, exam and vacation periods. I would meet with my bosses regularly and say when I could and couldn’t work. It worked well.

  31. Buce
    It may not have occurred to you but there is no way your narcissistic anecdotal and selfish inner self is anything like a suitable proxy for 3.3 million Australian casual workers.

  32. Avril @DocAvvers
    ·
    20m
    I was on casual wages through my first two uni degrees. I couldn’t save anything, because Austudy was so low I needed every cent of my pay for rent, utilities, public transport, and books. There were times I went without food. In what world does @cporterwa live?

  33. Bucephalus

    I couldn’t be bothered correcting all the assumptive errors in your post. Your experiences when you were a student no longer have relevance.
    You clearly know little of how the increasing casualisation of work has disempowered all employees and have had little to do with such employment over the past few years.

  34. ML
    Bucephalus experience would be fairly common among uni students. The real problem area is people post uni still in that circumstances but it does depend on the industry because some do not suit a full time permanent employment set up and there are some jobs that by their nature are short term.

  35. Boerwar @ #1764 Tuesday, March 10th, 2020 – 4:47 pm

    rhw
    Thank you.
    I have been appreciating your, OC’s and Dio’s contributions very much.
    I used to value moral courage over physical courage.
    Volunteering in a fever clinic combines both.
    Good on you!

    They haven’t really started outside major centres yet. Give it a week or so.

    Actually fever clinics (where everyone is assumed to be a potential transmitter, contact precautions are routine and one wears full N95 protective gear to take the samples) are the safest possible place. That’s why the drive-by swabbing clinics are just a piece of legerdemain to placate the punters- if you can drive in, you can probably drive home. The real issue is what to do with the 4-10% of people who have a clinical illness (not COVID-19, yet) when they get their swab, the result requiring 6-48 hrs to become available.

  36. MB

    the causual staff I know have virtually no power of times and conditions. Failure to accept a work assignment, or failure to be available at any time (with no standby pay) results in never getting called again.

  37. Gollsays:
    Tuesday, March 10, 2020 at 2:25 pm
    Bucephalus
    If the private school with the new swimming pool complex did not receive some of the millions available via the LNP government to build multi-million dollar indoor swimming pool complexes at private schools, the entire school board and the headmaster at that school should be dismissed as incompetent.
    Most private school in their position would have proceeded with the new complex knowing well in advance that the LNP government would privide suffient funds, with or without completed paperwork.
    You are postulating typical LNP entitlement bs.

    Bucephalussays:
    Tuesday, March 10, 2020 at 2:42 pm
    Goll

    You are full of it.

    Maybe, but my remarks remain accurate.
    Thanks for the compliment!

  38. Spray @ #1768 Tuesday, March 10th, 2020 – 4:49 pm

    rhwombat @ #1757 Tuesday, March 10th, 2020 – 4:38 pm

    (2) ~ 0.1-0.5% (ie ~100-500/10,000 cases) of cases will develop symptoms after 14 days of active monitoring.

    RHW, as a lurker I really appreciate your informed posts. Thank you.
    But just fact-checking you on the Maths here. Did you mean 1 to 5%? Or should that have been per 100,000 instead of 10,000?

    Sorry. You are quite correct 1-5%. Zeros – how do they work? Bloody AMA (spits) only taught us to multiply, not divide… .

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