Three things

The major parties in Victoria get fiddling to nobble the Greens in local government; candidates confirmed for Queensland’s Bundamba by-election; and Barrie Cassidy’s moustache strikes back.

Three things:

• The Victorian parliament has passed contentious legislation to change the process by which boundaries are drawn for local government elections, the effect of which will be an end to proportional representation in many councils and a return to single-member wards. This was passed through the upper house with the support of both major parties, and fairly obviously targets the Greens, whose local government footprint expanded considerably in 2016. The legislation is covered in greater detail by Ben Raue at The Tally Room. Relatedly, The Age reports Labor plans to endorse candidates across metropolitan councils at the elections in October, after doing so in only three councils in 2016. The Liberals in Victoria have never endorsed candidates.

• The closure of nominations for Queensland’s March 28 by-election for Bundamba on Tuesday revealed a field of four candidates representing the Labor, the LNP, the Greens in One Nation, just as there will be in Currumbin on the same day. You can read all about it in my election guides for the two seats, which are linked to on the sidebar.

• For those who have forgotten what a Labor election win looks like, Malcolm Farnsworth has posted four hours of ABC election night coverage from 1983 in two parts, here and here. The broadcast predates results at polling booth level and indicative two-party preference counts, which would have to wait until the 1990s, and without which it was difficult for analysts to read the breeze from partial counts in any but the most homogenous seats.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,957 comments on “Three things”

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  1. GG

    Rudd saved tens of thousands of tradies during the GFC from going broke.

    Looking forward to Morrision screwing tens of thousands of tradies during the Corana Crisis?

  2. Adjusting the deeming rate for pensioners and perhaps bringing forward the next round of income tax credits would be in line with the “ tax and transfer system” rhetoric from the government.

    I would be very very surprised if Morrison went with one off payments to households or a increase in Newstart so I cannot see where else they can go re the “ transfer “ system.

    Meanwhile, the problem with bringing forward the next round of income tax credits is simply that any benefit will not hit the pockets of Australians until July when tax returns are lodged and just like the first round the promised $1400 or however much to taxpayers from the second round will be all a puff of smoke. It is not a tax cut, weekly pay packets will not increase. Any benefit will not actually hit the pockets of consumers any time soon if at all.

    There is a very very good chance not very much stimulus at all is directed towards those who would drive a increase in spending.

    Perhaps Scotty has had a “ road to Damascus “ moment. Otherwise I do not hold much hope.

    We shall see.

  3. Nathan Robinson points out Joe Biden’s lack of empathy:

    I felt like I knew everything I needed to know about Joe Biden when I heard him tell rich donors that “nothing would fundamentally change” if he was elected president, and when he said of people in my generation that he had “no empathy” for our concerns, like being overwhelmed by student debt and unable to afford kids. Why would we want a president who promises no change? There needs to be change. How can I become even slightly enthusiastic about someone who says he has no empathy for me? One of Joe Biden’s supposed best qualities, according to his boosters, is that he is overflowing with empathy. But he openly states that he doesn’t care about me or the others in my generation. Surely Democrats can do better than this.

    https://www.currentaffairs.org/2020/03/democrats-you-really-do-not-want-to-nominate-joe-biden/

  4. @Boerwar

    It wont be just tradies who will be furious if many lose their jobs in the recession to come. The miners will be furious as well, if many lose their jobs because a collapse in demand for Australian minerals.

  5. doyley says:
    Monday, March 9, 2020 at 5:42 pm

    Adjusting the deeming rate for pensioners and perhaps bringing forward the next round of income tax credits would be in line with the “ tax and transfer system” rhetoric from the government.
    ________________
    Don’t conservative governments’ just give a bonus to aged pensioners? I’m assuming that’s what they’ll do.

  6. Surely Democrats can do better than this.

    Surely that particular commentator/analyst can do better than pretending that Biden offers “no change” from Trump.

    There are a wealth of options in between “continue Trump’s dumpster fire” and “full-blown progressive revolution”. Learn how to be happy with half, or keep making do with nothing (and an even more stacked Supreme Court, ffs!).

  7. Not only did Biden rack up much-needed delegates, he disproved Sanders’ case for his candidacy. Sanders had argued that he could not only replicate Obama’s “coalition of the ascendant” – women, minorities, and millennials – but would add to it the working-class white voters who had drifted from the party in 2012 and abandoned it altogether in 2016.

    But Sanders continues to struggle with black voters, and the young voters who flock to his rallies did not show up on election day. Instead, it was Biden whose coalition looked much more like Obama’s.

    https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/the-way-biden-won-should-terrify-the-trump-campaign-20200308-p547z7.html

  8. No, Joe Biden just cannot relate to the Millennial Generation, nor they to him:

    What I DO know is that Nicholas is a glib, gormless fool.

    Hey, Nich Boy, got an attack of the sads because your dream date, Stephanie Kelton, is watching her chance at grasping the keys to the VP residence evaporate before her eyes? Too bad. So sad.

  9. Next up on the political calendar are party primaries in the Midwestern states of Michigan and Missouri, the western states of Washington and Idaho, and Mississippi in the South, with caucuses in the upper Midwest state of North Dakota. Democrats living abroad are also voting in a collective primary that has already started and ends March 10.

    Sanders getting his arse handed to him in a couple of these states

    Missouri
    Biden 62
    Sanders 32

    Mississippi
    Biden 77
    Sanders 22

    https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2020/3/8/ahead-in-ms-mo

  11. But Sanders continues to struggle with black voters, and the young voters who flock to his rallies did not show up on election day.

    Because they were flocking to the free concerts that Sanders would put on to coincide with his rallies. Maybe he knew they didn’t really support the human embodiment of the Old Man That Shouts at Clouds?

  12. For a brief moment Sanders people forgot they were living in the USA. They thought they had a one in a hundred year shot at real reform.

  14. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, March 9, 2020 at 5:18 pm

    If Josh gives the stimulus money to Newstart, they spend it. If Josh gives the money to investors, they bank it. Why would investors spend money during the greatest shakedown since GFC? #JStim— Michael West (@MichaelWestBiz) March 9, 2020

    A logical conclusion.
    ——————————–
    Don’t usually agree with Michael but he is right because what investors need is not a handout but a boost to spending because the fear is the economy is sliding towards a recession.

  15. What I DO know is that Nicholas is a glib, gormless fool.

    Hey, Nich Boy, got an attack of the sads because your dream date, Stephanie Kelton, is watching her chance at grasping the keys to the VP residence evaporate before her eyes? Too bad. So sad.

    I’ve just reviewed the totality of Nicholas’s comments over the past few weeks, and can confirm that in none of them is he taunting people, calling them names or behaving like a child.

  18. The CMO has given up on trying to contain C19. Its pretty much open slather now. It’s like those rescue operations that change from search to recovery.

  19. nath,

    Perhaps the government could go down that path. I have no idea.

    If they did then what about low income families ? What about those on Newstart and other welfare payments ? Those who lose their casual jobs or are off sick with no income as a result ? Etc etc etc.

    That would be a interesting debate. How targeted would Morrison go with his “ Rudd style” one offs if he grits his teeth girths his loins and goes down that path ?

    Anyway, all will be revealed in coming days so I think I will pull the pin with any more amateur predictions until that day arrives.

    Cheers.

  20. However you categorize or agree or disagree with his views, Nicholas has always comported himself with dignity and good manners on this site.

  23. doyley says:
    Monday, March 9, 2020 at 6:05 pm

    nath,

    Perhaps the government could go down that path. I have no idea.

    If they did then what about low income families ? What about those on Newstart and other welfare payments ? Those who lose their casual jobs or are off sick with no income as a result ? Etc etc et
    ______________
    I agree there are a lot of people in need of some stimuli. But I’m not sure there’s a will to make that happen. The government is talking 10 Billion. Not much stimulus there. Honestly I wouldn’t be surprised if aged pensioners get a bonus. Perhaps those on Family Tax Benefit may get something. What more can you do with 10 billion?

  25. Nicholas is a gentleman and we are admirers of each other. I wish I understood economics as he does. He admires my sexual charisma.

  26. And I can recall him proposing Stephanie Kelton as VP for Bernie Sanders. Does that make him a Bernie Bros? Some may say yes, some are saying no.

  27. sprocket_ @ #1273 Monday, March 9th, 2020 – 6:12 pm

    All I can recall about Nicholas is very long posts about economic theory, doubt he is a BernieBros

    He’s definitely a Bernie Bros and enjoyed lecturing us all endlesslessly that Bernie was an absolute lock for not only the Democratic Nomination but the November 2020 election. He’s probably in a world of pain as his prepostrous predictions and intellectually barren assertions about what would happen in the US have turned to mud.

  31. Trump sees this budding pandemic through the lens of how it will affect him and his re-election prospects. The fact that the people infected and those fearful of becoming so are real people who desperately need the steady hand of a steady leader is lost on him.

    Instead of being the president that the country needs in a time of crisis, he has chosen to employ his worn political strategy: lying. Rather than addressing the issue straightforwardly, he has told lie after lie, and in some cases contradicted the scientists trying to manage this issue.

    This has real-world consequences for people’s health and the management of the virus’s spread. As a Reuters/Ipsos poll last week found, “Democrats are about twice as likely as Republicans to say the coronavirus poses an imminent threat to the United States,” and “More Democrats than Republicans say they are taking steps to be prepared, including washing their hands more often or limiting their travel plans.”

    Furthermore, when asked last week if he would consider canceling some of his large political rallies to avoid the risk of spreading the virus, Trump responded, “It doesn’t bother me and it doesn’t bother them at all.”

    Trump could be making his most ardent supporters a petri dish of disease.

    But in his mind, it’s not really about them, and certainly not about the rest of us. This is about him, only, always.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/08/opinion/trump-coronavirus.html

  32. nath,

    Once you account for possible investment allowances and wage subsidies for business, perhaps bringing forward tax credits, advertising campaigns for tourism etc etc not much left in the kitty out of $10 billion to go to where it would have the most effect. It is not much at all.

  33. While the cash splash may have worked at the time of the GFC, and all power to Labor at the time, things have changed. Just how many wide-screen, whizz-bang TVs do people really need? Morrison will have to find something a bit more sophisticated than dollops of dough. I don’t think he is up to it.

  34. And another outrageous grants program has emerged, $567m meant for ‘Indigenous disadvantage’ with money shoveled out the door to friendlies in the lead up to the election..

    “Mining giant Fortescue Metals, retail giant Wesfarmers, two NRL clubs, and Catholic and Anglican welfare organisations were awarded millions of dollars from a fund for alleviating Indigenous disadvantage.

    The former Indigenous affairs minister Nigel Scullion approved more than $560m worth of funding in his final six weeks in the role ahead of the announcement of the federal election in 2019.

    Fortescue Metals, which is owned by the mining magnate Andrew “Twiggy” Forrest, received a grant of $3.828m for “strategic activities that focus on getting Indigenous Australians into work, fostering Indigenous business and assisting Indigenous people to generate economic and social benefits from effective use of their land, particularly in remote areas”.

    The funds from the federal government’s controversial Indigenous advancement strategy were approved on 5 April 2019, just six days before the Morrison government went into caretaker mode.

    In the six weeks from 1 March to 11 April, Scullion approved 240 grants worth around $567m, including the one-off grant to Fortescue.

    Scullion also approved more than $15m to retailer Wesfarmers over four years to support Indigenous employment in its businesses, including Coles, Target, Kmart and Bunnings.

    The Brisbane Broncos were awarded $10m for a mentoring program and the establishment of a girls’ academy, while the North Queensland Cowboys received $2.7m for a boys’ academy.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/09/mining-giant-given-millions-in-grant-by-coalition-from-fund-for-indigenous-disadvantage

  35. Tax breaks for the top half of wage earners is technically “more sophisticated” than a flat cash-splash. And in line with the sort of thing Morrison and the Liberals like to do. There’s not a problem they’ve met that can’t be solved with tax cuts.

    So maybe they’ll do that?

  36. ‘Diogenes says:
    Monday, March 9, 2020 at 6:05 pm

    The CMO has given up on trying to contain C19. Its pretty much open slather now. It’s like those rescue operations that change from search to recovery.’

    In World War Two 27,000 Australians were killed and 23,000 wounded out of a population of around 7 million. This took a bit over five years.

    It represented around .7% of the total population.

    We have been through the coronavirus storm clouds. We have been through the coronavirus Phoney War, toilet paper unicorn and all.

    The real thing has commenced.

    Will the WW2 stats eventually look attractive in comparison?

  39. …fostering Indigenous business and assisting Indigenous people to generate economic and social benefits from effective use of their land, particularly in remote areas”.

    Ie, Mining. For which Mr Forrest would engineer it so that he would take a very generous slice of that pie.

  42. sprocket_ @ #1290 Monday, March 9th, 2020 – 6:52 pm

    Speaking of panic.. Dow futures are down near 5% as well

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    I always felt that Trump taking credit for a rise in the Stock market prices exposed him to a serious back lash were the Party to suddenly stop. Wall Street and the market will not look on benignly when the” spaghetti hits the fan” as it seems to be doing atm.

  44. Well, Labor had their global financial crisis to manage as the federal government, now it’s the Coalition’s turn to manage the C-19 Financial Crisis. Let’s see how they go.

  47. GG
    Failing to act when there actually is a pandemic because of political pressure would be another reason to disband it.

  48. Everyone’s calling for a central information platform.

    For the government to do so would mean their admitting they should have done it before.

    This lot don’t do “mistakes.” They don’t make ’em. They don’t admit ’em.

  50. sprocket_
    Re the economic development and Twiggy.About a decade back I was involved with some biogas projects. An Aboriginal group from the Kimberly contacted us and one came to meet us. They were interested in the biogas due to the sky high electricity prices they paid for running diesel generators. Anyway, as for Twiggy the chap I spoke to basically said @#@%#!!! Twiggyt. His group wanted long term economic stuff using the sustainable natural resources like sandalwood,fish farming,bush tucker etc available on their land. He was pissed with Twiggy as “all he wants to do is stuff Aborigines down a mine which will close in a few years” . The locals being left with SFA.

    Also they wanted to work/live on their land rather than be ‘shipped out’ to the mines

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