Two things:
• At Antony Green’s prompting, the Northern Territory Electoral Commission has published breakdowns of the various candidates’ preferences flows at Saturday’s Johnston by-election, providing measures of the impact of highly unusual preferencing behaviour by the Greens and the Country Labor Party — remembering that the Northern Territory prohibits dissemination of how-to-vote cards is the immediate vicinity of polling booths. Having done the unthinkable and put Labor last, the Greens’ preferences split 56.9-43.1 between Labor and the Territory Alliance, compared with my own rule of thumb that Labor gets 80% of Greens preferences when they are so directed and 75% when no recommendation is made. Note that this is the Territory Alliance rather than the Country Liberal Party, and that Labor’s flow would presumably have been somewhat stronger had it been otherwise. The CLP no less unusually put Labor second, and their preferences went 52.9-47.1 in favour of the Territory Alliance.
• JWS Research has released its latest quarterly True Issues report, confirming the impression of other similar polling that the salience of the environment and climate chnage spiked over summer. Respondents were separately asked to name three issues off the tops of their heads and to pick the five most important issues out of a list of twenty, with confusingly different results – environment reigned supreme in the first case, but in the second it trailed cost of living (which ranked low when unprompted) and health (second in both cases). Perhaps the most revealing point is that environment increased in the prompted question from 33% a year ago to 42%, while immigration and border security fell from 36% to 25%. The federal government was reckoned to be performing well by 28% of respondents, down two since the November survey, and poorly by 35%, up two. The survey was conducted online from a sample of 1000 from February 20-24.
lizzie
Remote communities are terribly vulnerable, IMO. They have the lot: poor medical resources, terrible overcrowding, large sets of pre-existing conditions and semi-chaotic governance. Most of them depend on supplies of fuel and food from outside.
I am not sure whether, at an individual level, they would be more, or less, susceptible to either infection or progression to critical status.
Judge Calls Barr’s Handling of Mueller Report ‘Distorted’ and ‘Misleading’
The judge said the attorney general lacked credibility on the matter and said he would review the report to decide whether to make its redacted portions public.
WASHINGTON — A federal judge on Thursday sharply criticized Attorney General William P. Barr’s handling of the report by the special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, saying that Mr. Barr put forward a “distorted” and “misleading” account of its findings and lacked credibility on the topic.
Mr. Barr could not be trusted, Judge Reggie B. Walton said, citing “inconsistencies” between the attorney general’s statements about the report when it was secret and its actual contents that turned out to be more damaging to President Trump. Mr. Barr’s “lack of candor” called into question his “credibility and, in turn, the department’s” assurances to the court, Judge Walton said.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/us/politics/mueller-report-barr-judge-walton.html
Boerwar
I have no special knowledge but simply feel that communities should be able to make their own decisions. Going on previous history I have no confidence that they will be allowed to.
I am remembering those (I think in WA) who wanted to retain their lifestyle because it led to less sickness and crime, but were prevented by gov removing services.
‘lizzie says:
Friday, March 6, 2020 at 4:07 pm
Boerwar
I have no special knowledge but simply feel that communities should be able to make their own decisions. Going on previous history I have no confidence that they will be allowed to.
I am remembering those (I think in WA) who wanted to retain their lifestyle because it led to less sickness and crime, but were prevented by gov removing services.’
Ultimately the bedrock issue is accountability for taxpayer funds. There is no difficulty with anyone making their own decisions. The difficulty turns on making your own decisions with other peoples’ money.
Boerwar
Has anyone told Morrison?
(There’s something stirring in the back of my mind in relation to Wellbeing.)
Boerwar: “The Aussie stock market was an asset bubble inflated by free money. The p/e ratio was ridiculous and, even with the major C19 retreats it is still well above long term p/e ratios.
Retirees chasing dividends did not help themselves by puffing it up further.
Had to happen.”
The Aussie stock market slavishly follows the action in overseas markets: market analysts describe it as “following the lead” of overseas markets, but it is more a case of the FOMO instinct coming into play: ie, as soon as Wall St jumps one way, the speculative investors on the ASX jump in the same direction.
It’s therefore meaningless to attempt to draw any sensible conclusion from daily results. Speculators are currently putting their money into the market one day and taking it out a few days later or even the next day. As they are basing much of their judgement on trends in overseas markets, you can’t see the ASX average at any point in time as telling you anything reliable about the true market value of the assets in that market. You can only do this by looking at longer term trends.
The main longer-term story is that, thanks to the growth of the superannuation sector in several advanced economies, every day there is a massive amount of new money seeking investment opportunities offering long-term returns. Bonds and other cash investments offer safety but, nowadays, they offer virtually no return. Infrastructure investments are promising, but nobody wants to have a portfolio composed purely of these investments. So much of the new money becoming available for investment is going to keep heading towards the stock market and will inevitably push up asset values. So, no matter how far the ASX (and the Dow and the Nasdaq and the Nikkei and Hang Seng and the rest) might fall right now as a result of coronavirus, I suspect it is likely to start drifting upwards again reasonably soon. How soon it does that and how far it goes will tell us something useful about the true value of these assets. IMO.
I thought yesterday’s surge was the beginning of a longer-term shift back upwards: especially now the Reserve Bank is set to reduce interest rates to all but zero.
But Wall St decided to panic again last night: partly on the back of an exaggerated report of reversals in Wuhan.
There are also endless ‘updates’ from ABC (and I expect other media), repeating the ‘news’ of the death of one 95-yr old lady. Just emphasising fear quotient, IMO.
Maude Lynne says:
Friday, March 6, 2020 at 3:06 pm
Pegasus
“Transparent, antidemocratic, political donations from powerful vested interests, governing for their mates and not in the interests of ordinary citizens.”
Agreed.
Single-member wards are far less democratic than PR.
Vic Labor is to be condemned for this disgrace.
Great work by Vic Labor. Long and loud may the Greens lament. The more they protest the better it be for Labor.
RI @ #1457 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 4:35 pm
You’re not real big on this ‘democracy’ thing, are you?
RI
“Great work by Vic Labor”
I support Labor over the LNP but I’m not tribal.
When Labor does things to further its party’s interests over those of the people it claims to represent then they do not have my support.
This (the removal of PR in councils) is such a case.
It effectively disenfranchises a significant proportion of the voters in council electorates, which then makes them feel their views are not represented.
Not a good thing for democracy.
I don’t normally find First Dog on the Moon depressing. But this one certainly is …
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/06/it-just-keeps-going-and-going-the-weird-mean-things-the-morrison-government-has-got-into
🙁
Friday drive by on SARS-CoV-2 in a time of local epidemic.
The full report is here , just for BB’s entertainment.
We’re not in Kansas anymore…
It’s Time @ #1424 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 2:34 pm
I never said that. And, no, I don’t agree with that either.
All that Independents and Greens need to do in Vic council elections is to get enough votes in some divisions to get members elected. Even getting second place on the primary count may be enough in many cases.
Many local councils have very concentrated pockets of people with common interests which surely should respond to “non major” campaigning.
Their distress at the changes is reflective of their distress that not enough people will vote for their policies. Perhaps they should take heed of their often repeated advice to Labor and educate the electorate. They obviously have little confidence in their ability to do so.
With Victorian Labor in lock step with the Liberals in passing anti-democratic legislation, does anyone believe any alliance of any sort is possible between Labor and the Greens?
Murdoch would be proud. Will political donations from property developers and the gambling industry to the political duoply increase as a result?
Today, I donated a small amount of money to the Victorian Greens local government election campaign. I speculate the Greens will continue to see an increase in membership and donations.
Labor is cutting off its nose to spite its face.
Maude Lynne says:
Friday, March 6, 2020 at 4:43 pm
RI
“Great work by Vic Labor”
I support Labor over the LNP but I’m not tribal.
When Labor does things to further its party’s interests over those of the people it claims to represent then they do not have my support.
This (the removal of PR in councils) is such a case.
This will not alter the choices available to voters. But it might alter the results obtained by the Greens. If so, this would be a very desirable outcome. By the by, in the area where I live at the moment in local government elections wards have 2 members but only one is elected at any election. The local Greens do win wards under these conditions. So do Labor, the Liberals, the Socialist Alliance and the occasional Indy.
The changes introduced in Victoria will deprive the Greens of automatic wins. Excellent. They will have to fight harder. The more they campaign against Labor, the better it will be for Labor. I welcome this in every respect.
Pegasus @ #1464 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 4:05 pm
What is undemocratic about voters in a council division electing a person to represent them in council?
‘MB
It’s therefore meaningless to attempt to draw any sensible conclusion from daily results. ‘
True. It is the sort of thing you would expect from the Greens.
“Asked if the government could boost the unemployment payment, Newstart, as Labor has proposed, Cormann replied that he would not “speculate” on individual measures but the focus of the package was to bring forward business investment.”
Which means, “NO WAY are we giving them any extra cash. Let them eat cake or starve for all we care.” And besides, the LNP and big end of town needs the cash to line their own pockets through rorts galore.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/06/cormann-rules-out-rudd-style-cash-splash-to-boost-australian-economy-as-coronavirus-bites
When are we going to see SHY’s apology to victims of domestic violence, activists, and volunteers?
Pegasus says:
Friday, March 6, 2020 at 5:05 pm
With Victorian Labor in lock step with the Liberals in passing anti-democratic legislation, does anyone believe any alliance of any sort is possible between Labor and the Greens?
Murdoch would be proud. Will political donations from property developers and the gambling industry to the political duoply increase as a result?
Today, I donated a small amount of money to the Victorian Greens local government election campaign. I speculate the Greens will continue to see an increase in membership and donations.
Labor is cutting off its nose to spite its face.
The Greens have been eating their cake and having it too. The days of Greencake are over. Excellent. The Greens will have to try harder. They will actually have to appeal for majority support if they are to win seats, rather than being able to survive as split-ocrats. Most excellent.
ajm
And yet, the Victorian Electoral Commission is opposed to the LG changes. And Kevin Bonham, Antony Green, Ben Raue are also opposed. Go figure. What would they know.
P1
Come on, truffle powered wave pool didn’t get a laugh?
The Greens’ problem is that they are generally very, very unpopular.
So they want to rig the system.
I can understand that.
P1
FDOTM always nails it!
Greens and wife bashers same same.
Why doesn’t Bandt order SHY to apologise?
Kronomex
I heard Peter Martin this arvo saying that the rationale is that business would be supported because it was important for them to retain all their staff, but a cash splash for individuals would just be spent on reducing ccard debt or bank loans.
I dunno.
From RHW’s link:
‘Contact Tracing China has a policy of meticulous case and contact identification for COVID-19. For example, in Wuhan more than 1800 teams of epidemiologists, with a minimum of5 people/team, are tracing tens of thousands of contacts a day. Contact follow up is painstaking, with a high percentage of identified close contacts completing medical observation. Between 1% and 5% of contacts were subsequently laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19, depending on location.’
Wow.
Compare and contrast what is happening in the US under Chief Medical Officer Trump!
Sarah Hanson-Young ‘appalled’ by behaviour of friend charged with assault but stands by character reference
Greens senator said both the man and his victim had spoken to her and wanted to move on with their lives
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/06/sarah-hanson-young-appalled-by-behaviour-of-friend-charged-with-assault-but-stands-by-character-reference
Why do The Greens always seek to have the political voting system work in their favout, eg the deal they did with Malcolm Turnbull, but squeal like stuck pigs if other parties do deals?
From reading some of the links here this arvo, it’s pretty obvious that there is much disquiet in profesdional medical circles regarding the incoherent, confusing, contradictory and spasmodic “official information” being provided to the Australian people on coronavirus.
Until that information arrives you can either…
● proceed as normal i.e. as if the virus is a trifling matter,
OR,
● assume the news will not be good and act accordingly.
If you take the former course, Option-A, you stand a good chance – say 50 times greater – of being infected, probably by someone you don’t know, who is showing no symptoms, and who caught the virus in a similar way. Depending on the breaks.
But your social life will be full, in the meantime.
If you take the latter course, Option-B, your life for the next few months will be drabber and not quite as cheery as before, but you stand a better chance, probably 50 times better, of not being infected at all.
In fact the worst that could probably happen to you is the embarrassment when C19 scare turns out to be a big false alarm, and Option-A people rib you for being over-cautious. Ha, ha.
Of course, it gets tricky when Option-A people meet Option-B people before we have the information we need.
Peg
So, which is it?
St Kevvies headmaster was just forced to resign for much the same ethical confusion as SH-Y’s.
What poor person on Newstart can service a Credit Card debt and maintain one on an ongoing basis!?!
‘This is not a drill’: World Health Organization urges countries to take coronavirus more seriously
World health officials have warned that countries are not taking the coronavirus crisis seriously enough, as outbreaks surged across Europe and in the United States where medical workers sounded warnings over a “disturbing” lack of hospital preparedness.
Global markets tumbled again over concerns about the impact on the economy and as countries took more drastic steps to prevent contagion of a disease that has killed more than 3,300 people and infected nearly 100,000 in about 85 nations.
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/this-is-not-a-drill-world-health-organization-urges-countries-to-take-coronavirus-more-seriously/
Yapping that she is appalled while still standing in his corner singing his praises is itself appalling – appalling hypocrisy.
How the hell does the senator know what is going on behind closed doors?
Somebody earlier on was touting the fact that if the ASX fell below 6000 – well kind of, so what? Not time to slit the wrist surely? True…………however, this begs the question of how much hot air is holding cheap dollars up to make the market look like a good place to invest. As I get it, the US has made money so cheap that people are “investing” in the market, only to see companies not reinvesting this money in expansion but buying back their own shares (tax lurk) and which encourages mug punters to buy even more of these over-priced shares to put in their portfolio. This stuff and only go on for so long and then………..boom……..it all goes down the drain………………..Whether the market falls to where it was in December 2019, or October 1929 the mugs will lose…………………………..It took until 1951 for share markets to get back to where they were in 1929 (and a war in between of course impacted on all this) but I would not be that optimistic that some kind of “recovery” of an enduring kind is just around the corner…………..I sense the opposite is more likely the case if China does not recover……………….
New water mines in Gold Coast hinterland barred for a year amid concerns over bottling industry
Queensland government’s moratorium comes after dozens of bores supplying drinking water to Tamborine Mountain ran dry
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/06/new-water-mines-in-gold-coast-hinterland-barred-for-a-year-amid-concerns-over-bottling-industry
Action taken by the Queensland government because of push back from ordinary people, and there is a state election looming on 31 October 2020.
BB
I am quite staggered at the insouciance of some of the otherwise extremely intelligent people in my circle of acquaintances and friends.
It reminds me of the feelpinion foolishness we commonly come across in climate science denialists. They were more intent on taking the piss out of dunny paper hoarders than on doing their basic statistics.
lizzie @ #1456 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 4:28 pm
For anyone interested, here’s the frontline anaesthetic update references from the Australian Society of Anaesthetists (the union, not the college):
Editorial British Journal of Anaesthesia
Outbreak of a new Coronvirus: What Anaesthetists should know
https://bjanaesthesia.org/article/S0007-0912(20)30098-2/pdf
Aust Dept of Health: interim-recommendations-for-the-use-of-personal-protective-equipment-ppe-during-hospital-care-of-people-with-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19
http://aussa.informz.net/z/cjUucD9taT0yMTI5MTA4JnA9MSZ1PTUwNTIyODUxNSZsaT0xOTUzNzY4MA/index.html
World Federation of Societies of Anaesthetists
Coronavirus – guidance for anaesthetists and perioperative care providors
https://www.wfsahq.org/resources/coronavirus
You can’t enter public buildings in the PI without getting your temperature tested and your hands sprayed with sanitizers.
That said, there are now two cases where PI cits were diagnosed with C19 when they left the PI and landed somewhere else…
There are now close to 2,000 Aussies in voluntary self-quarantine. You got that first in Bludger.
At least California is taking C-19 seriously:
Ship held off coast as US virus cases grow
A cruise ship with 3,500 people aboard has been ordered to stay back from the California coast until passengers and crew can be tested for the coronavirus after a traveller from its previous voyage died of the disease and at least four others became infected.
A military helicopter lowered test kits onto the 290-metre Grand Princess by rope as the vessel lay at anchor off the coast of San Francisco.
Perhaps all this detail is of little interest to the general public, but I think it’s important for overall honesty of government – which currently we do not have.
Pegasus @ #1487 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 4:24 pm
As a local, I’d say you’ve totally got that wrong.
But it fits your preconceptions I spose
From RHW’s Report: some good news:
‘Remarkably, more than 40,000 HCW have been deployed from other areas of China to support the response in Wuhan. Notwithstanding discrete and limited instances of nosocomial outbreaks (e.g.a nosocomial outbreak involving 15 HCWin Wuhan), transmission within health care settings and amongst health care workers does not appear to be a major transmission feature of COVID-19 in China. The Joint Mission learned that, among the HCW infections, most were identified early in the outbreak in Wuhan when supplies and experience with the new disease was lower. Additionally, investigations among HCW suggest that many may have been infected within the household rather than in a health care setting. Outside of Hubei, health care worker infections have been less frequent (i.e. 246 of the total 2055 HCW cases). When exposure was investigated inthese limited cases, the exposure for most was reported to have been traced back to a confirmed case in a household.’
Again from RHW’s Report: excellent news, IMO
‘The proportion of truly asymptomatic infections is unclear but appears to be relatively rare and does not appear to be a major driver of transmission.’
Evacuation from China, Quarantine in the UK: A Covid-19 Dispatch
https://www.nybooks.com/daily/2020/03/02/evacuation-from-china-quarantine-in-the-uk-a-covid-19-dispatch/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NYR%20Mar%205&utm_content=NYR%20Mar%205+CID_e4d34e57313a4de3eaddfb80da156814&utm_source=Newsletter
There has been a bit of commentary about the selfishness of those emptying shelves of paper goods.
When I went shopping yesterday, I had run out of kitchen paper and genuinely needed some. The shelves were empty except for an opened six-pack, with 3 left in it. So someone had been thoughtful and not taken the lot.
With gratitude, I took one roll and left the remaining two.
mikehilliard @ #1472 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 5:13 pm
Yes, funny … until you realize it might not have been a joke!