Super Tuesday Democratic primaries: live commentary

Live commentary on the Super Tuesday primaries that occur tomorrow in Australia. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.

2:35pm Friday Warren has dropped out, leaving a two-candidate race between Sanders and Biden.  The delegate count at The Green Papers currently gives Biden a 671-599 lead over Sanders, from popular votes of 35.1% Biden, 28.7% Sanders. In California, Sanders has an 8.4% lead over Biden with over 3 million votes remaining, but some of these will be Republican primary votes.  Late counting in California skews more left the longer it goes.

2:19pm Thursday Last night, Bloomberg withdrew from the contest and endorsed Biden.  No decision has yet been made by Warren.  In California, Sanders leads by 8.7% with all election day precincts reporting.  We should know approximately how many outstanding votes are left tomorrow.

9:53pm Conversation article up.  Biden is likely to win ten states to four for Sanders, and has a 102-delegate lead in The Green Papers count.  In 2016, Clinton had little appeal to lower-educated whites, and that’s likely why Sanders was competitive.  But Biden has more appeal to the lower-educated than Clinton.  Once moderate rivals withdrew, he consolidated the moderate vote.

8:37pm With 79% of election day precincts counted in California, Sanders leads Biden by 31.8% to 22.8%.  California takes FOUR weeks to count all its votes, so there’s lots of late counting to look forward to!

7:32pm With almost all votes counted in the Israeli election, the right bloc lost a seat, so Netanyahu will be three seats short of a majority.  It’s right 58 out of 120, left 55, Yisrael Beiteinu seven.

7:27pm The California Secretary of State now has 64% of precincts reporting, and Sanders is almost 10% ahead of Biden.

6:00pm Texas CALLED for Biden.

4:15pm Biden up to a 1.8% lead in Texas, and the Needle now gives him a 70% chance to win.

4:06pm Biden overtakes Sanders in Texas.  He’s 0.4% ahead with 60% of election day precincts in.  The Needle gives Biden a 56% chance to win Texas.

4:05pm The NY Times shows 23% of California’s Election Day precincts have already reported, but the California Secretary of State (the official results service) says only 4%.

3:47pm With 54% of election day votes reporting in Texas, Sanders leads by 1.2%.  The Needle still sees this as 50-50 between Sanders and Biden.

3:21pm Dave Wasserman has called Texas for Biden, but the NY Times Needle says it’s 50-50 with 34% reporting.  Sanders has a 3.6% lead.

3:18pm Massachusetts officially CALLED for Biden.  With 65% reporting, he has 33.4%, Sanders 26.7% and Warren 22.1%.

3:10pm With 93% of election day votes in in North Carolina, Biden’s lead is now almost 19 points, up from seven before election day votes.

3:03pm California not called for Sanders, but it looks good for hime in exit polls.  Biden likely the only other candidate who breaks the 15% delegate threshold statewide.

2:47pm Minnesota CALLED for Biden.  He leads by eight points with 57% reporting.  Sanders was supposed to win here.

2:45pm With 43% reporting in Alabama, Sanders is at 16.2%, close to the 15% delegate threshold.  Falling below 15% would be a disaster for Sanders.

2:34pm Sanders has won Utah, a stronghold for Republicans where the small Democratic electorate is progressive.

2:30pm In Texas, Sanders leads Biden by 5.6% with 23% of election day precincts in.  The NY Times needle has Biden very slightly ahead.

2:25pm Dave Wasserman projects Elizabeth Warren will finish third in her home state of Massachusetts, behind Biden (first) and Sanders (second).

2:15pm While I was out for lunch, Biden was CALLED the winner in Arkansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee, giving him six state wins.  Sanders won Colorado, mainly due a split early vote.  Early voting dominates in that state.  Biden currently leads in Minnesota and Massachusetts, which Sanders was supposed to win.

1:01pm The NY Times needle gives Biden a 68% chance of winning Texas although Sanders currently leads by 6.6%.

12:58pm As the Election Day vote comes through in North Carolina, Biden increases his lead.  He’s now leading in NC by 11% with 29% in.

12:45pm In Virginia, where the election day vote was virtually all voters, Biden leads Sanders by 54-23 with 96% reporting.

12:34pm Maybe early voting will stop Biden from routing Sanders.  Biden is only up by seven points over Sanders in North Carolina with 12% of Election Day precincts reporting.  Biden not doing so well in votes cast before South Carolina and the withdrawals.

12:18pm With 66% reporting in Virginia, Biden is crushing Sanders by 30 points.

12:15pm Polls in Arkansas close at 12:30pm, then it’s Colorado and Minnesota at 1pm, Utah at 2pm and finally California at 3pm.

12:10pm As regards Texas, a small part of the state is in the Mountain Time zone and doesn’t close til 1pm AEDT.  Exit polls will be released then.

12:06pm Alabama CALLED for Biden, while the other 12pm states are uncalled.  In Massachusetts, it’s a close three-way race between Biden, Sanders and Warren (it’s Warren’s home state).

11:57am Biden is over 20% in the first Vermont results.  If he stays above 15% there, he gets delegates, which Hillary Clinton was unable to do in 2016.

11:49am Biden has a 55-23 lead over Sanders in Virginia with 32% in.

11:40am Count in Virginia is already up to 22%, and it’s Biden by a crushing 54-24 over Sanders with nobody else close to clearing 15%.

11:34am CNN CALLS North Carolina for Biden based on a large exit poll lead.  This is looking better and better for Biden.

11:27am With 1% reporting in Virginia, Biden leads Sanders by 51-25.  Everyone else is well below the 15% delegate threshold.

11:24am The next polls to close are North Carolina at 11:30am AEDT, then Alabama, Maine, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas at 12pm.

11:08am Sanders CALLED the winner in his home state of Vermont, but the exit polls suggest Biden will beat the 15% threshold there, restricting Sanders’ delegate advantage.

11:01am Biden CALLED the winner in Virginia by CNN based on exit polls.  He has a 63-18 lead over Sanders with black voters (27% of the electorate) and a 43-26 lead with whites (63% of electorate).

10:20am Wednesday With 94% counted in the Israeli election, right-wing parties have 59 seats (up four since the September 2019 election) and left-wing parties 54 (down three).  Likud is the biggest party with a 36-32 lead over Blue & White, reversing the 33-32 deficit last September.  It appears that Netanyahu’s coalition will be two seats short of a majority.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

Fourteen states vote in the Super Tuesday Democratic primaries tomorrow, in which 1,357 of the 3,979 total pledged delegates are awarded (34% of all delegates). Delegates are awarded proportionally to vote share, but with a high 15% threshold that applies to both statewide delegates and Congressional District (CD) delegates. The more Democratic-leaning a CD is, the more delegates it receives. Polls close between 11am and 3pm AEDT.

A few days ago, it appeared likely that Bernie Sanders would come out of Super Tuesday with a large delegate lead over his nearest rival. Even if Sanders did not win a majority of Super Tuesday pledged delegates, such an outcome would have put him on course for a large plurality of all pledged delegates at the July Democratic convention. In those circumstances, Sanders would probably be the nominee.

However, Joe Biden had a crushing 28-point win over Sanders at Saturday’s South Carolina primary. In the next two days, moderate rivals Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar withdrew from the contest and endorsed Biden. There has not been enough time for polls to catch up with these developments, but they are very likely to assist Biden.

The FiveThirtyEight forecast has the chance nobody wins a pledged delegate majority surging to 63%. This does not necessarily mean a contested convention, as it includes cases where one candidate wins a strong plurality, and a deal is worked out before the convention. No delegate majority chances have surged because Mike Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren are still in, and will be assisted in getting to 15% by the withdrawals.

Sanders now has just a 52% chance of winning more delegates than any other candidate, down from over 70% at his peak, while Biden’s chances have rocketed to 48%. The Democratic contest is now effectively a race between two men in their late 70s, and the winner will confront Donald Trump, who is a mere 73.

I recommend The Green Papers for delegate and popular vote counts. The next contests are next Tuesday, when six states vote that account for 9% of pledged delegates.

Netanyahu could win Israeli election outright

With 81% counted in Monday’s Israeli election, right-wing PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc of parties had 60 of the 120 seats, to 53 for the opposition left bloc. If the right bloc wins one more seat, Netanyahu would have outright victory after April and September 2019 elections resulted in no government being formed. Yisrael Beiteinu, with seven seats, was unable to cooperate with either the Arab Joint List or the religious right parties before. This result comes despite Netanyahu’s November indictment on bribery and fraud charges.

1,162 comments on “Super Tuesday Democratic primaries: live commentary”

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  1. AV – for what it’s worth, I don’t think Sanders should withdraw, at least not yet. There seems little doubt that the momentum of the primary contest shifted wildly just before Super Tuesday, and experience would suggest that Biden is now far more likely than not to go on an win the nomination. As things stand right, now, however, both Biden and Sanders have about a third of the required delegates (both around the mid-600s), and with around 2,600 delegates still up for grabs, it’s still quite possible for Sanders to enjoy a momentum shift of his own in the coming weeks. If this hasn’t happened to any appreciable degree by, say, Easter, then I’d say Bernie is done, and he probably should pull the pin then, but for now he’s well within his rights to stay in.

  2. Where were the calls for Biden to concede when Bernie was the front runner? Oh that’s right, there weren’t any.

  3. Crickets from Grouper Central over Biden’s senility. Ha, they are endorsing the simp. Ha, they say these are unfounded slurs. They are the real simps methinks. Briefly and co supporting the simp is one of the funniest thing to happen on here for ages and they, GG, Boer, “Rational’ Rightest et al have been involved in some doozies.

  4. clem attlee @ #1104 Sunday, March 8th, 2020 – 10:39 pm

    Where were the calls for Biden to concede when Bernie was the front runner? Oh that’s right, there weren’t any.

    There were not any calls and Bernie can run for as long as his ego will alllow him.

    Pain now or further down the road after spending a shit load of money for no result.

    His choice!

  5. clem attlee @ #1105 Sunday, March 8th, 2020 – 10:42 pm

    Crickets from Grouper Central over Biden’s senility. Ha, they are endorsing the simp. Ha, they say these are unfounded slurs. They are the real simps methinks. Briefly and co supporting the simp is one of the funniest thing to happen on here for ages and they, GG, Boer, “Rational’ Rightest et al have been involved in some doozies.

    RU OK?

  6. No, I’m in stitches over you and the right wing cabal’s support for a candidate who is clearly unfit for office. I guess it takes a nut to support a nut. BTW, hows the new handle going Briefly? I see you you are still posting the same right wing crap.

  7. clem attlee @ #1108 Sunday, March 8th, 2020 – 10:47 pm

    No, I’m in stitches over you and the right wing cabal’s support for a candidate who is clearly unfit for office. I guess it takes a nut to support a nut. BTW, hows the new handle going Briefly? I see you you are still posting the same right wing crap.

    You’ve got a whole lot of blah going on, comrade.

  8. Blah over a whole group on here who are in complete denial. It’s very funny actually. It demonstrates your complete ideological inflexibility. Aren’t you embarrassed?

  9. I suspected as much. Those who are spouting the Joe Biden has mental acuity issues, are parroting Fox news:

    WASHINGTON — The cruel insults to Joe Biden’s mental acuity are flying fast and ferocious on Fox News.

    How can we trust the nuclear codes to someone so incoherent, Fox chatterers cry, who doesn’t always seem to know what day it is or what office he’s running for?

    That’s no surprise. The House that Ailes Built is — as Obama mastermind David Plouffe boldly pointed out the other day on “Fox & Friends” — in the tank for President Trump. Plouffe described the network as Trump’s “Westworld,” a fantasy realm where the president can be the man he wants to be rather than the man he is.

    In “the Year of the Drunken Uncle,” as The Spectator calls it, the 73-year-old Trump has belittled the 77-year-old Biden as “not playing with a full deck” and predicted that, if Joe wins, his staff will “put him into a home,” and he’ll be there watching television while “super-left, radical crazies” run the White House.

    At a Fox town hall Thursday night in Scranton, Biden’s hometown, the president made fun of Biden’s slip about “Super Thursday” and his recent observation that he was running for the Senate.

    “There’s something going on there,” Trump said as his supporters laughed.

    On Wednesday night, Laura Ingraham said on her program that Jill Biden “looks like she is directing a patient in the memory-care unit half the time” and showed a graphic of Biden as the dead guy propped up in “Weekend at Bernie’s.”

    Republicans have made something of a specialty of challenging opponents’ cognitive capacity.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/maybe-i-have-a-natural-ability-trump-plays-medical-expert-on-coronavirus-by-second-guessing-the-professionals/2020/03/06/3ee0574c-5ffb-11ea-9055-5fa12981bbbf_story.html

  10. No, Cat. Go and watch some videos of Biden as VP and then watch him today. He’s a completely different person. It’s actually really disturbing.

    A Confused Joe Biden Says ‘We Can Only Re-Elect Donald Trump’

    The current Democratic frontrunner fell and tripped repeatedly over his words as he stumbled through a campaign speech in Missouri on Saturday. The 77-year-old former vice president made a series of gaffes and incoherent statements as he appeared to lose his train of thought. At one point, he even mispronounced his own name.

    “… We cannot get re-elect, we cannot win this re-election, excuse me. We can only re-elect Donald Trump,” Biden said to his bewildered supporters. The candidate himself seemed caught off guard by his inability to keep his train of thought.

    Video: https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1236461844132499458?s=19

    At the same event, Biden referred to himself as an “Obiden Bama Democrat.”

    Video: https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1236445627610992646

    Many people have questioned Joe Biden’s mental fitness as he campaigns for the highest political office in the country. In the past few weeks alone, the candidate declared repeatedly that he was running for the U.S. Senate, confused which state he was in, said there were 150 million gun deaths in America since 2007, called Super Tuesday “Super Thursday,” and announced that he would have the ability as president to appoint the first African American woman to the United States Senate.

    Of course, as president, Biden will not have the ability to appoint senators. And even if Biden did have that ability, he would not be able to appoint the first African American woman to the U.S. Senate since Carol Moseley Braun was elected in 1993.

    https://townhall.com/tipsheet/bronsonstocking/2020/03/07/biden-incoherent-n2563829

  11. Not to be dismissive about Joe’s senior moments, but a) things like the first of Firefox’s two links come across a lot less bad when they’re not maliciously edited, and b) just about every time I listen back to a radio interview I’ve done, I notice a glaring misstatement of one sort or another that could be used against me if you were of a mind to be unfair.

  12. To be clear about this: Firefox has approvingly quoted a right-wing pro-Trump website to peddle the entirely deceitful claim that Biden said “we can only re-elect Donald Trump”, when what he actually said was “we can only re-elect Donald Trump if, in fact, we get engaged in this circular firing squad here”.

  13. Yes, Firefox, he stumbled, and he does it rather a lot. But your second-hand assertion that he said “we can only re-elect Donald Trump” is a lie, so kindly don’t lecture me about falling for BS.

  14. “To be clear about this:”

    ***

    Well, I guess we all know where you stand now then don’t we. Mate he’s an absolute wreck. It’s horrible to watch. Don’t join the media protection racket. Here’s another source for you. It’s all over the net. Open your eyes.

    WATCH: Joe Biden Continues To Struggle Through Rally Despite Using Teleprompter

    Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden continued to struggle campaigning in Kansas City, Missouri, on Saturday, further drawing criticisms from those who believe that his fitness for office is an issue.

    Biden stated while using a teleprompter [emphasis added]:

    “You want a nominee that will bring this party together, who will run a progressive, positive campaign, and turn this primary from a campaign that’s about negative attacks into one about what we’re for because we cannot re-elect, we cannot win this re-election, excuse me, we can only re-elect Donald Trump if, in fact, we get engaged in this circular firing squad here.”

    Video: https://twitter.com/RealSaavedra/status/1236458360297279488

    https://www.dailywire.com/news/watch-joe-biden-continues-to-struggle-through-rally-despite-using-teleprompter

  15. Wow, Firefox, you’re a brave man taking on God. WB doesn’t intervene particularly often, so when he does it probably pays to take heed. I’m guessing most PBers would take William’s posts a lot more seriously than your increasingly hysterical assertions. But carry on, knock yourself out.

  16. A people far behind cannot catch up choosing the most moderate path.

    looks like jesse jackson is backing sanders at this late stage.

    In a statement Sunday, Jackson said Sanders made several commitments to him: expanding Pell Grants, nominating African American women to the Supreme Court and his Cabinet, introducing a constitutional amendment on the right to vote in Congress, and considering an African American woman as his running mate.

    “With the exception of Native Americans, African Americans are the people who are most behind socially and economically in the United States and our needs are not moderate. A people far behind cannot catch up choosing the most moderate path. The most progressive social and economic path gives us the best chance to catch up and Senator Bernie Sanders represents the most progressive path. That’s why I choose to endorse him today”

    needless to say he wouldn’t have got that endorsement if he’d pulled out before the race was finished !
    -a.v.

  17. ‘And those(like Bernie Sanders) who make promises they can’t keep(to Jessie Jackson), are being deceitful.
    C@tmomma Black Cat.

  18. You just have to observe Joe Biden, without any prejudice or politicking and with your eyes wide open, to see that he is just not the person he was four years ago. Wouldn’t it be preferable for any nominee to be at their peak and not on a downhill decline?

  19. “The Biden campaign has not reached out to me or asked for my support,” he added. “The Sanders campaign has, and they responded to the issues I raised.”

    don’t misunderestimate jesse jackson’s political acumen. -a.v.

  20. “ Where were the calls for Biden to concede when Bernie was the front runner? Oh that’s right, there weren’t any.”

    Ahem …

    Not only have I loudly and lonely called for Biden to drop out over the past two years, I’ll go one further:

    I wish that both Bernie and Biden would fuck right off so that Democrats could actually consider someone relevant.

  21. “Wow, Firefox, you’re a brave man taking on God.”

    ***

    Not really. Webmasters do not scare me, nor should they scare anyone. William chose to enter the discussion and I chose to respond to him. He is allowed to have his own personal opinions just like the rest of us. He would know that if he shares his opinions he is likely to have someone disagree with him, especially if he directs his views at an individual in a terse manner as he did with me last night. I’m sure he can handle being responded to in kind.

  22. “I wish that both Bernie and Biden would fuck right off so that Democrats could actually consider someone relevant.”

    ***

    Seriously though, you own this as much as the rest of the establishment. You may have been too cowardly to back anyone who was in the race but you have made your allegiances clear with your constant attacks on Bernie and the left. Not that we didn’t already know where you stood lol. It is the establishment’s fault that Biden is all that they have. You’ve had four years to find your next chosen one after Clinton flopped.

  23. “Day 4 of why hasn’t bernie quit yet”

    ***

    Day 4 of why are you cheering for someone who enabled Bush’s slaughter of hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians?

  24. Actually, AE raises the very valid point about what this primary race would currently look like if both Biden and Sanders had declined to run and/or dropped out before voting started (Sanders, for example, really should have withdrawn after his heart attack). What the two of them have done, mostly by virtue of name recognition, have crowded out younger candidates (be they progressives or moderates). We would probably now be looking at a race where Elizabeth Warren was the remaining progressive standard-bearer, while someone like Kamala Harris, Cory Booker or Amy Klobuchar was flying the flag for the moderates. That strikes me as a much more palatable choice to be making.

  25. Bellwether @ #1122 Monday, March 9th, 2020 – 8:13 am

    You just have to observe Joe Biden, without any prejudice or politicking and with your eyes wide open, to see that he is just not the person he was four years ago. Wouldn’t it be preferable for any nominee to be at their peak and not on a downhill decline?

    Pushing the Trump/Fox News campaign memes, Bellwether? What a sad and spiteful individual you are.

    Forgotten how the actual President of the United States routinely babbles word salad, needs to have his Daily Briefing given to him with few words and lots of pictures, if he bothers with them at all, is motivated by pure evil and is absolutely determined to wreck the environment and destroy the middle class so that there is only the poor Working Class and the ultra wealthy? And you are intent on spewing out Anti Biden propaganda!?!

    I think you’re the one with the illness affecting their mental capacity.

    Oh, and don’t worry, I’ve called the Wahmbulance for when you get butt hurt after that dose of the truth.

  26. Hugoaugogo @ #1129 Monday, March 9th, 2020 – 10:47 am

    Actually, AE raises the very valid point about what this primary race would currently look like if both Biden and Sanders had declined to run and/or dropped out before voting started (Sanders, for example, really should have withdrawn after his heart attack). What the two of them have done, mostly by virtue of name recognition, have crowded out younger candidates (be they progressives or moderates). We would probably now be looking at a race where Elizabeth Warren was the remaining progressive standard-bearer, while someone like Kamala Harris, Cory Booker or Amy Klobuchar was flying the flag for the moderates. That strikes me as a much more palatable choice to be making.

    It was actually Pete Buttigieg who was winning or coming a very close second in the Primary and Caucus races from the Moderate wing of the Democratic Party.

  27. Ever since it became clear that Sanders is unlikely to win the Democratic primary, Firefox has been going off like a frog in a sock. Apparently the same primary process that delivered victories to Sanders in IA, NH, and NV suddenly became crooked once Biden started winning in SC and Super Tuesday. Sanders woz robbed. ‘The Establishment’ is of course to blame, not individual voter choice.

  28. C@tmomma – Oh, yes, forgot about Mayor Pete, though in any event, my hypothetical was really musing about the alternate reality if both Biden and Sanders had dropped out last year. My premise (not based on much apart from gut feel) was that one of the moderates who did drop out in 2019 or very early 2020 (eg Harris, Booker, O’Rourke) may have been better-placed to don the mantle of the moderate choice, rather than the two (Buttigieg and Klobuchar) who did manage to stay in, though of course, either of them could also have done so. Presumably Warren would indeed have become the progressive standard-bearer, and in indeed seemed to be on the cusp of doing just that in the aftermath of Bernie’s heart attack last October. But apparently a 78-year-old white guy with a bad heart thought he’d be a better bet (much like Biden on the moderate side), and so now we’re stuck with two septuagenarians fighting it out.

  29. Not only did Biden rack up much-needed delegates, he disproved Sanders’ case for his candidacy. Sanders had argued that he could not only replicate Obama’s “coalition of the ascendant” – women, minorities, and millennials – but would add to it the working-class white voters who had drifted from the party in 2012 and abandoned it altogether in 2016.

    But Sanders continues to struggle with black voters, and the young voters who flock to his rallies did not show up on election day. Instead, it was Biden whose coalition looked much more like Obama’s.

    https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/the-way-biden-won-should-terrify-the-trump-campaign-20200308-p547z7.html

  30. Regardless of personal preferences one way or the other, there seems to be only one feasible outcome now, and that is the ultimate nomination of Joe Biden – like it or not.

    I doubt now that Bernie Sanders will win any of the contests this Tuesday, and even if he does they are most likely to be by such a small margin, and with such small net delegate gains, to make no material difference to the ultimate outcome.

    Regardless of the subjective intent, the only real beneficiary of his continued candidacy is Donald Trump, and personally, like most who post here, I would prefer to see him defeated in November, and regardless of who the Democratic candidate is.

  31. Firefox – I do not think Mr Bowe actually expressed a personal opinion above – he simply exercised his right to highlight the inaccuracy of the spiel in the ‘edited’ link you posted.

  32. Kamala Harris giving her endorsement to and campaigning for Biden will give him an extra boost. She has very loyal fans and is extremely energetic. And no doubt she’ll be on the VP shortlist when the time comes, should Biden prevail.

  33. Hey folks this all a lot of angst over nothing. Last week Biden said he was a candidate for the US senate. No kidding he said that. He’s not running for the presidency. or is he? I guess someone should break the news to him, cause he the hell doesn’t know. BTW, William, there is no editing, just check out any of the two dozen or so recent clips that demonstrate the man’s senility. Super Thursday, vote for me or the other Biden, fucking up after the first five words of the US declaration of independence, not remembering a five digit subscription number, or confusing his sister for his wife. right, nothing to see here.

  34. Guess how much that champion of the US working classes has made since she entered politics? You guessed right of course, Nancy Pelosi has made over $100,000,000. No wonder she hates Sanders and doesn’t see universal public health care as being important.

  35. When confronted with the Biden lie that he got arrested trying to meet Mandela, a Biden delegate defended him by saying all politicians try to shape the narrative. You cannot make this shit up.

  36. CNN poll: Biden has double-digit lead over Sanders for Democratic nomination

    Former Vice President Joe Biden has a double-digit lead over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders for the Democratic presidential nomination, a new CNN poll of Democratic voters nationwide conducted by SSRS shows.

    Biden is now the choice of a majority of Democratic voters nationwide, according to the poll, which was taken in the days after the former vice president’s stronger-than-expected showing across Super Tuesday contests and as the field of Democratic contenders with a realistic shot at winning the nomination narrowed to two.

    The poll finds 52% of registered voters who are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents say they want to see Biden win the nomination, while 36% say they’d rather see Sanders win.

    Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who dropped out of the race on Thursday, lands at 7% in the poll. That is largely due to her 18% showing in interviews conducted on Wednesday, before she ended her campaign. Among those interviewed after she left the contest, Biden’s support rose to 57%, Sanders stood at 36%, while 2% volunteered that they still backed Warren. Another 6% chose someone else or were unsure about who they would support.

    Biden’s successful Super Tuesday appears to have led to a rebound in his favorability rating (48% overall now hold a positive view, up from 39% in December), while Sanders has hit his highest unfavorability rating yet in CNN polling back to 2015 (52% hold an unfavorable view of him, up from 44% in December).
    Warren is the only candidate of the four Democrats who recently ended their campaigns who earns largely positive favorability ratings from both backers of Biden and of Sanders. Warren has yet to endorse a candidate in the nomination fight, while former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar have all thrown their support behind Biden and receive mostly positive views from Biden’s backers. They receive less positive views from those supporting Sanders.
    Overall, Biden holds a nearly 20-point edge among white voters and 10-point one among non-whites, as Sanders’ strength among Latino voters cancels out a bit of Biden’s edge among African Americans. But there remain sharp divides within the party across age groups, ideological views and party affiliation. Among those under age 45, Sanders tops Biden by 26 points, 57% to 31%. Among voters age 45 or older, it’s a 72% to 17% advantage for Biden.

    Liberals back Sanders 52% to 36%, while those who consider themselves moderate or conservative give Biden a 65% to 24% lead. Self-identified Democrats break 55% to 32% for Biden, while independents are about evenly split, 46% for Sanders to 45% for Biden. An education gap among white voters that seemed to be driven by white college voters’ tendency to choose candidates other than these two has faded as the field has shrunk.

    [Cont…]

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/09/politics/cnn-poll-biden-lead-sanders/index.html

  37. Get excited, Biden backers, looking good for your pick!

    Wonder which country we’ll be dragged into invading if he wins?

  38. The Democrats just have to win in November so that someone can be put in charge of the DoJ and make it straighten up and fly right again!

  39. Firefox, the military industial complex will be foaming at the mouth at that prospect. Even better if Ohbiden names Hillary as his running mate.

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