2:35pm Friday Warren has dropped out, leaving a two-candidate race between Sanders and Biden. The delegate count at The Green Papers currently gives Biden a 671-599 lead over Sanders, from popular votes of 35.1% Biden, 28.7% Sanders. In California, Sanders has an 8.4% lead over Biden with over 3 million votes remaining, but some of these will be Republican primary votes. Late counting in California skews more left the longer it goes.
2:19pm Thursday Last night, Bloomberg withdrew from the contest and endorsed Biden. No decision has yet been made by Warren. In California, Sanders leads by 8.7% with all election day precincts reporting. We should know approximately how many outstanding votes are left tomorrow.
9:53pm Conversation article up. Biden is likely to win ten states to four for Sanders, and has a 102-delegate lead in The Green Papers count. In 2016, Clinton had little appeal to lower-educated whites, and that’s likely why Sanders was competitive. But Biden has more appeal to the lower-educated than Clinton. Once moderate rivals withdrew, he consolidated the moderate vote.
8:37pm With 79% of election day precincts counted in California, Sanders leads Biden by 31.8% to 22.8%. California takes FOUR weeks to count all its votes, so there’s lots of late counting to look forward to!
7:32pm With almost all votes counted in the Israeli election, the right bloc lost a seat, so Netanyahu will be three seats short of a majority. It’s right 58 out of 120, left 55, Yisrael Beiteinu seven.
7:27pm The California Secretary of State now has 64% of precincts reporting, and Sanders is almost 10% ahead of Biden.
6:00pm Texas CALLED for Biden.
4:15pm Biden up to a 1.8% lead in Texas, and the Needle now gives him a 70% chance to win.
4:06pm Biden overtakes Sanders in Texas. He’s 0.4% ahead with 60% of election day precincts in. The Needle gives Biden a 56% chance to win Texas.
4:05pm The NY Times shows 23% of California’s Election Day precincts have already reported, but the California Secretary of State (the official results service) says only 4%.
3:47pm With 54% of election day votes reporting in Texas, Sanders leads by 1.2%. The Needle still sees this as 50-50 between Sanders and Biden.
3:21pm Dave Wasserman has called Texas for Biden, but the NY Times Needle says it’s 50-50 with 34% reporting. Sanders has a 3.6% lead.
3:18pm Massachusetts officially CALLED for Biden. With 65% reporting, he has 33.4%, Sanders 26.7% and Warren 22.1%.
3:10pm With 93% of election day votes in in North Carolina, Biden’s lead is now almost 19 points, up from seven before election day votes.
3:03pm California not called for Sanders, but it looks good for hime in exit polls. Biden likely the only other candidate who breaks the 15% delegate threshold statewide.
2:47pm Minnesota CALLED for Biden. He leads by eight points with 57% reporting. Sanders was supposed to win here.
2:45pm With 43% reporting in Alabama, Sanders is at 16.2%, close to the 15% delegate threshold. Falling below 15% would be a disaster for Sanders.
2:34pm Sanders has won Utah, a stronghold for Republicans where the small Democratic electorate is progressive.
2:30pm In Texas, Sanders leads Biden by 5.6% with 23% of election day precincts in. The NY Times needle has Biden very slightly ahead.
2:25pm Dave Wasserman projects Elizabeth Warren will finish third in her home state of Massachusetts, behind Biden (first) and Sanders (second).
2:15pm While I was out for lunch, Biden was CALLED the winner in Arkansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee, giving him six state wins. Sanders won Colorado, mainly due a split early vote. Early voting dominates in that state. Biden currently leads in Minnesota and Massachusetts, which Sanders was supposed to win.
1:01pm The NY Times needle gives Biden a 68% chance of winning Texas although Sanders currently leads by 6.6%.
12:58pm As the Election Day vote comes through in North Carolina, Biden increases his lead. He’s now leading in NC by 11% with 29% in.
12:45pm In Virginia, where the election day vote was virtually all voters, Biden leads Sanders by 54-23 with 96% reporting.
12:34pm Maybe early voting will stop Biden from routing Sanders. Biden is only up by seven points over Sanders in North Carolina with 12% of Election Day precincts reporting. Biden not doing so well in votes cast before South Carolina and the withdrawals.
12:18pm With 66% reporting in Virginia, Biden is crushing Sanders by 30 points.
12:15pm Polls in Arkansas close at 12:30pm, then it’s Colorado and Minnesota at 1pm, Utah at 2pm and finally California at 3pm.
12:10pm As regards Texas, a small part of the state is in the Mountain Time zone and doesn’t close til 1pm AEDT. Exit polls will be released then.
12:06pm Alabama CALLED for Biden, while the other 12pm states are uncalled. In Massachusetts, it’s a close three-way race between Biden, Sanders and Warren (it’s Warren’s home state).
11:57am Biden is over 20% in the first Vermont results. If he stays above 15% there, he gets delegates, which Hillary Clinton was unable to do in 2016.
11:49am Biden has a 55-23 lead over Sanders in Virginia with 32% in.
11:40am Count in Virginia is already up to 22%, and it’s Biden by a crushing 54-24 over Sanders with nobody else close to clearing 15%.
11:34am CNN CALLS North Carolina for Biden based on a large exit poll lead. This is looking better and better for Biden.
11:27am With 1% reporting in Virginia, Biden leads Sanders by 51-25. Everyone else is well below the 15% delegate threshold.
11:24am The next polls to close are North Carolina at 11:30am AEDT, then Alabama, Maine, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas at 12pm.
11:08am Sanders CALLED the winner in his home state of Vermont, but the exit polls suggest Biden will beat the 15% threshold there, restricting Sanders’ delegate advantage.
11:01am Biden CALLED the winner in Virginia by CNN based on exit polls. He has a 63-18 lead over Sanders with black voters (27% of the electorate) and a 43-26 lead with whites (63% of electorate).
10:20am Wednesday With 94% counted in the Israeli election, right-wing parties have 59 seats (up four since the September 2019 election) and left-wing parties 54 (down three). Likud is the biggest party with a 36-32 lead over Blue & White, reversing the 33-32 deficit last September. It appears that Netanyahu’s coalition will be two seats short of a majority.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
Fourteen states vote in the Super Tuesday Democratic primaries tomorrow, in which 1,357 of the 3,979 total pledged delegates are awarded (34% of all delegates). Delegates are awarded proportionally to vote share, but with a high 15% threshold that applies to both statewide delegates and Congressional District (CD) delegates. The more Democratic-leaning a CD is, the more delegates it receives. Polls close between 11am and 3pm AEDT.
A few days ago, it appeared likely that Bernie Sanders would come out of Super Tuesday with a large delegate lead over his nearest rival. Even if Sanders did not win a majority of Super Tuesday pledged delegates, such an outcome would have put him on course for a large plurality of all pledged delegates at the July Democratic convention. In those circumstances, Sanders would probably be the nominee.
However, Joe Biden had a crushing 28-point win over Sanders at Saturday’s South Carolina primary. In the next two days, moderate rivals Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar withdrew from the contest and endorsed Biden. There has not been enough time for polls to catch up with these developments, but they are very likely to assist Biden.
The FiveThirtyEight forecast has the chance nobody wins a pledged delegate majority surging to 63%. This does not necessarily mean a contested convention, as it includes cases where one candidate wins a strong plurality, and a deal is worked out before the convention. No delegate majority chances have surged because Mike Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren are still in, and will be assisted in getting to 15% by the withdrawals.
Sanders now has just a 52% chance of winning more delegates than any other candidate, down from over 70% at his peak, while Biden’s chances have rocketed to 48%. The Democratic contest is now effectively a race between two men in their late 70s, and the winner will confront Donald Trump, who is a mere 73.
I recommend The Green Papers for delegate and popular vote counts. The next contests are next Tuesday, when six states vote that account for 9% of pledged delegates.
Netanyahu could win Israeli election outright
With 81% counted in Monday’s Israeli election, right-wing PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc of parties had 60 of the 120 seats, to 53 for the opposition left bloc. If the right bloc wins one more seat, Netanyahu would have outright victory after April and September 2019 elections resulted in no government being formed. Yisrael Beiteinu, with seven seats, was unable to cooperate with either the Arab Joint List or the religious right parties before. This result comes despite Netanyahu’s November indictment on bribery and fraud charges.
Tell me more about Albo’s sweet spot hitting?
It’s amusing to me that the posters here from the Labor Right seem to think this primary process is somehow working out well for them. The reality is that it has completely exposed the massive division in the Labor party and has revealed the deep hatred and utter contempt that the Labor Right feels towards the Left in general, including those in the Labor Left and the Greens. Every single attack that you’ve made against Bernie and the wider Left who support him just ends up being another self inflicted wound on your own party.
Oh and it’s far too late to chuck a typical establishment backflip. You’ve all made your beds and now you get to sleep in them. 🙂
Meanwhile, the Left are proud to stand with Bernie and fight for the things we believe in. We stick to our values. We don’t shift our support week after week from one shallow candidate to another based on who the establishment tell us to like at the time. To be fair, some of you are too cowardly to even do that and just want to have a bet each way. This is hardly surprising though considering how often Labor sits on the fence lacking conviction and purpose.
Just when you thought it was finally one-on-one…
Tulsi Gabbard may have just qualified for the next Democratic debate thanks to American Samoa
One surprise winner of Super Tuesday could end up being Rep. Tulsi Gabbard.
While the rules for the next debate have not been released by the DNC, the most recent thresholds have allowed candidates to qualify if they performed well enough to earn a delegate in the primary so far.
There are also polling thresholds – which Gabbard has failed to meet several times in a row – but her performance in the territory of American Samoa could put her in the game, however one DNC official said that the delegate threshold “will go up.”
Even the most dialed in debate observers did not know what to make of the development early Tuesday evening.
The delegate heard around politics Twitter was later met with a response from the DNC’s communications director.
Xochitl Hinojosa, the DNC’s communications director, indicated that the delegate threshould would go up to “reflect where we are in the race, as it always has.”
Despite a series of poor performances – including a seventh place finish in New Hampshire, where she rented a house for months ahead of the Feb. 11 voting day – Gabbard has vowed to stay in the race until the convention.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/tulsi-gabbard-may-have-qualified-for-the-next-dem-debate-2020-3?r=US&IR=T
My branch has changed from a independent right branch to a left branch, but it has zero to do with the community it is all about the idiots stupid games in head office. Labor’s determination to have no connection with its community isn’t going so well.
Let’s consider a few major reasons for conservative policies dominating public policy during the past forty years.
First, centre-left parties surrendered to neoliberal narratives that the welfare state was at fault, market mechanisms are superior, and that unemployment is an individual failure not a macroeconomic failure.
Second, the most powerful and wealthy groups favour these policies, and therefore have a lot of scope to use their control over the media, politicians, think tanks, and public discourse to push those policies and insulate them from attack.
Third, conservative voters have felt emboldened to stand up for their preferred policies. Conservative voters tend to focus on their own vote instead of guessing what millions of complete strangers are going to do and watering down their vote in a misguided effort to fit in with an imagined public consensus.
Non-conservative voters, on the other hand, usually second-guess themselves, water down their vote by choosing what they think other people will accept instead of what they want. They do this in election after election so that even when conservatives “lose”, conservatives still win because their policies are not seriously challenged.
This dynamic is playing out among Democratic voters at the moment. Hardly anyone really likes Biden, almost everyone likes Bernie’s platform, but instead of voting for what they want they engage in half-arsed intuitions about what millions of strangers they know nothing about will do in the general election. This creates a self-fulfilling prophecy: if enough voters who support a platform fail to vote for that platform, then that platform won’t win elections.
Conservatives are more rational in how they approach the task of voting. They seem to know that it is impossible to know what millions of strangers are going to do, so you should just focus on your own decision instead of imagining the decisions of others.
Many Democratic voters are making a tragic mistake by voting for Biden. Even if he wins, he won’t do anything substantive to address the crises that people face. It is very likely that he will lose because he epitomises the “swamp” that Trump rhetorically positions himself against. Biden lacks the mental acuity to be an effective campaigner and to reliably fulfil the demanding role of the presidency. Biden has been on the wrong side of every major economic and foreign policy decision of the past forty years. He is a terrible choice to be Democratic nominee.
Tristo @ #950 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 1:24 pm
It used to be illegal to cross state lines for immoral purposes. Things have really loosened up these days! 🙂
Firefox – what the heck are you on about?
I realise that there are some elements of the Left (and you appear to be including yourself in this) that lump everyone else in as some sort of sell-out hack, but I fail to see what evidence you have for posters here who might fit your self-interested definitions and are cheering the probable nomination of Joe Biden. AE, Rational Leftist, Kakuru, C@tmomma and me among others are all more than happy to list Biden’s shortcomings as a candidate, and have done on numerous occasions (and indeed, regularly take up what we think are flaws in the arguments of each other). It’s true that all of us are not particularly enamoured with Bernie Sanders as a potential nominee, and we have also laid out these concerns. As far as I can, these misgivings have less to do with policy and ideology than they do to with hard-nosed pragmatism. It’s certainly my view that Sanders would really struggle to attract voters in the general election, and that is certainly the case in the primary races he has run. It’s not “the establishment” (whatever that actually means), but the voters that have rejected him.
But whatever, we’ve had this argument numerous times, and we aren’t likely to change each others minds now. But you do your cause no favours by making assertions about our motivations for arguing as we do. It might be a shock for you to hear this, but it is possible for people to genuinely hold convictions in good faith (even Trump supports), even I think personally that they are misguided. Such is the beauty of democracy, and Sanders and his supporters who quite probably do better if they didn’t just assume that anyone who is not on the Bernie bus is little more than a stooge, and idiot or a fascist.
This is the problem that Labor faces in Australia. It has a long legacy of being part of the problem and not clearly differential as a solution. Yeah at all times in the last 40 years they’ve been ‘better’ by a whisker, they seem to actually position themselves as ‘better by just a bit’, but that doesn’t help if you are on newstart, particularly if you were on of the single parents Gillard screwed over in one of the nastiest pieces of social policy we’ve seen from Labor. They didn’t really fight robodebt. They are accomplices on refugees.
It is not at all surprising they’ve won zero elections (yeah Rudd won but it wasn’t because of Labor and its positioning it was Howard losing, and Gillard formed govt but off the back of conservative independents who put country over self interest) in more than 1/4 a century.
Oh dear. The Uber Left Zealots are back.
tl:dr Everyone should be as right on as us and if you aren’t you’re a stooge. Or even worse now, a member of the Centre Left Establishment! 😆
@WeWantPaulsays
Labor’s current stance on the future of coal fired power stations which according to Essential polling 47% of Australians, including 32% of Coalition and 28% of Greens voters agreed with.
Also Labor in recent polls have improved a fair bit in primary
vote, after accounting for a approximately 2-3% loss to the Greens. Not to mention Anthony Albanese is neck to neck in the preferred Prime Minister ratings to Morrison. Not bad considering Morrison’s strong appeal to the Coalition’s base of right-wing nationalists and conservative Christians.
The country was on fire and the PM was literally on a beach in Hawaii. He has some marginally good polling and he has a bad policy that almost half of Australians agree with. Excellent. Not nearly enough though.
The LNP haven’t even really bothered to start telling the lies that will win them the next election yet. I’m thinking death tax will make a comeback. Socialist is likely to feature a lot.
and if the next election gets tough Morrison can just shear two sheep. The media will go into an amazing frenzy of admiration.
WeWantPaulsays:
Friday, March 6, 2020 at 2:13 pm
“I’m thinking death tax will make a comeback. Socialist is likely to feature a lot.”
Hold on a tick. If the electorate is as left leaning as some are claiming, then the libs going down that path should be a positive for the ALP!
If the LNP can convince enough people that the ALP really are socialist, they should romp it home.
Former Vice President Joe Biden has opened up a double digit lead nationally over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, according to a new poll.
The latest Reuters-Ipsos survey finds Biden at 45 percent support ahead of Sanders who has garnered 32 percent support. The recent increase shows a 24-point swing over the same poll from nine days ago, when Sanders had opened up an 11-point lead over Biden.
The race has changed dramatically since then.
Biden won 10 of the 14 states that voted on Super Tuesday, sweeping the southern states and winning unexpected contests in Maine, Massachusetts and Minnesota.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/486212-biden-opens-up-double-digit-lead-nationally-over-sanders-poll?amp&__twitter_impression=true
That is really good for dem stability, they’ll have shaken off some support with the center coalition stunt just before super tuesday but a strong win and clear nomination before the convention will really help.
At least not a totally divided party before Trump even hits them from the left, and the right and cheats and all the things he is going to do.
Bernie is starting to tweet things he got right and biden got wrong, I hope he has staff doing it, it will be a lot of work for weeks.
Amongst all this noise on here, I forgot to say thank you to Adrian Beaumont for his excellent coverage of these elections. Thank you, Adrian.
Tristo
” A friend of mine who loves in Texas agrees with me fully.”
Loving is bigger and better in Texas. 🙂
https://twitter.com/BernieSanders
https://twitter.com/BernieSanders
Sanders is getting more and more desperate.
There is a curious echo of the situation with Corbyn and anti-semitism: basically Corbyn did too little too late. The result was some significant damage from within his own side.
Sanders has a similar problem. The rabids in his ranks bastardized Warren. Sanders did little or nothing to change their repulsive behaviour.
Now the person to who it was directed, with the intent to destroy her, is not providing Sanders with the immediate lift he so badly needs.
As both Sanders and Corbyn have discovered, what goes round comes round.
I’m with Biden on that one. Maybe Sanders should spend his time attacking Trump. Not the worst idea.
Sanders (and his supporters) are sounding a lot like sore losers.
“It’s amusing to me that the posters here from the Labor Right seem to think this primary process is somehow working out well for them. The reality is that it has completely exposed the massive division in the Labor party and has revealed the deep hatred and utter contempt that the Labor Right feels towards the Left in general, including those in the Labor Left and the Greens.”
The primary process in America has not shown anything of the sort of deep divisions in the Labor party. On this blog doesn’t mean one iota of what goes on in the Labor party in the real world.
Atleat Labor has an actual process where rank and file participates in their leadership ballot. Greens still elect via their parliamentary team. Greens are not united as you make out the NSW greens, Batman by-election disaster, and a Greens state MP quitting the party and running as an independent exposes their deep divisions. You are drawing a long bow suggesting this has exposed deep divisions in the Labor party. Oh please!
Kakuru says: Friday, March 6, 2020 at 3:54 pm
I’m with Biden on that one. Maybe Sanders should spend his time attacking Trump. Not the worst idea.
Sanders (and his supporters) are sounding a lot like sore losers.
************************************************************
I am with you on this Kakuru – Joe Biden is no JFK or Obama when it comes to being a wow candidate/person but its like Bernie Sanders is hellbent on destroying and dividing the Democratic Party. Almost like he is saying if I don’t get your vote to be President I’ll get you 4 more years of Trump out of spite!
phoenixRED @ #975 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 4:20 pm
Isn’t this pretty much what he did last time? IIRC he hung on way beyond when it became clear to everyone he would lose, just to snipe at Clinton.
Player One says: Friday, March 6, 2020 at 4:28 pm
phoenixRED @ #975 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 4:20 pm
… Bernie Sanders is hellbent on destroying and dividing the Democratic Party. Almost like he is saying if I don’t get your vote to be President I’ll get you 4 more years of Trump out of spite!
Isn’t this pretty much what he did last time? IIRC he hung on way beyond when it became clear to everyone he would lose, just to snipe at Clinton.
************************************************
Yes Player One – if he wanted to remembered as a hero in American history rather than a spoiler/divider – he would give up his constant criticizing of other Democrat candidates – and openly and publically get behind Joe Biden and urge all his supporters likewise – at least that way there is a *chance* of getting rid of Trump
FIrefox – so what’s your point?
Sanders is more left wing than Biden? Yep, completely agree.
That Sanders has better policies, that aren’t that different from a typical mainstream European Democratic Socialist party? Can’t really argue there
That Sanders is best placed to defeat Trump? Nope, none of those tweets demonstrate that.
Saw this tweet and it’s a fair point. Something important for the nominee to consider when thinking about running mate.
National @Reuters/@Ipsos Poll Who Voters See Best On
Beat Trump:
Biden 45
Sanders 25
Warren 5
Immigration:
Biden 33
Sanders 27
Warren 9
Economy/jobs:
Biden 41
Sanders 24
Warren 14
National security:
Biden 49
Sanders 18
Warren 6
Rational Leftist @ #979 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 4:43 pm
The Diversity quotient will be fulfilled by the VP Running mate I reckon.
I think this is an apt criticism of centrists. Their entire MO is to guess what millions of strangers are going to do, and base their own vote on that guess, rather than do the rational thing and vote for what you want. Conservatives do the smart thing and use their votes to push for what they want.
To be a centrist is to be profoundly feckless and misguided. It is paradoxical that the people who self-consciously style themselves as sensible and pragmatic are actually the furthest away from embodying those qualities.
To be a centrist is to be profoundly feckless and misguided.
Lol.
Elizabeth Warren Tells Sanders Supporters To Stop Embracing Trumpian Politics Of Division
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who dropped out of the presidential race on Thursday, had some tough words for Bernie Sanders regarding the behavior of his loyal supporters.
In her first interview since ending her bid, Warren said bullying and “organized nastiness” is a particular problem for those who support the Vermont senator, and she compared it to the “politics of division” that Donald Trump embraces.
“I think it’s a real problem,” she said of the way Sanders supporters treat folks who don’t agree with them on every issue.
“It’s not who I want to be as a Democrat,” Warren added. “It’s not who I want to be as an American. ”
https://www.politicususa.com/2020/03/05/elizabeth-warren-sanders-supporters-stop-embracing-trumpian-politics-of-division.html
I too think the biggest fault with the ever nebulous group labelled ‘centrists’ (which appears to mean anybody but a particular fringe) is that we lack a deranged cult of personality.
“Rational Leftistsays:
Friday, March 6, 2020 at 5:36 pm
I too think the biggest fault with the ever nebulous group labelled ‘centrists’ (which appears to mean anybody but a particular fringe) is that we lack a deranged cult of personality.”
I thought it was Soros? That’s who I’ve been told will be paying me.
To Joe Biden, Trump’s Potential Successor Mike Pence “Is a Decent Guy”
Published on
Thursday, September 26, 2019
When Joe Biden told an audience that Mike Pence “is a decent guy,” Pence had already been vice president for more than two years. After the comment drew fierce criticism, Biden responded that he’d said it “in a foreign policy context”—an odd effort at damage control, given that Pence has publicly backed every one of President Trump’s countless abhorrent policies, whether foreign or domestic.
Now, with impeachment in the air and the remote but real possibility that Trump might not end up running for re-election, Biden’s attitude toward Pence and Republicans overall should get a closer look.
That he could call Pence “a decent guy” after loyally serving as Trump’s highest-ranking henchman illuminates a lot about Biden’s style—and substance. His praise of Pence’s purported decency was not atypical. Biden has long praised racist Republican senators and defended his past collaborations with them.
And Biden has been effusive in expressing warmth toward the notorious man who preceded him as vice president. “I really like Dick Cheney for real,” Biden said while speaking at George Washington University in October 2015. “I get on with him, I think he’s a decent man.”
Such statements speak volumes about Biden’s standards of decency and about his suitability to be the Democratic presidential nominee. At a time when elected Republicans in Washington have amply shown themselves to be depraved sycophants to Trump—no matter how viciously vile and deadly his policies—Biden still wants to pretend that those GOP stalwarts can be brought into the fold of democratic civility, from the current vice president on down.
Insisting that “history will treat this administration’s time as an aberration,” Biden contended during a campaign swing in Iowa a few months ago: “This is not the Republican Party.” He went on to cite his bonds with “my Republican friends in the House and Senate.”
https://www.commondreams.org/views/2019/09/26/joe-biden-trumps-potential-successor-mike-pence-decent-guy
https://twitter.com/emmavigeland/status/1123975598999789571
https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/video-of-biden-calling-cheney-decent-man-in-2015-resurfaces-prompting-criticism/2019/05/03/15f7146c-9623-4c63-b9eb-c56a7f2e642a_video.html
The real question is the same question as last time: when will Sanders quit so that Biden has the best chance to beat Trump?
Based on last time, Sanders will leave it until too late and will be too weak to get his supporters out to support Biden against Trump.
Nader redux. Greens spoilers. Sanders spoilers. Same same.
Rational Leftist
You have it backwards if you think “centrist” is a label being foisted upon some poor unsuspecting group of people by “extremists”.
“Centrist” is a self-label, chosen by people who have in mind some other group of people they want to label “extreme” by comparison. Exactly what you just did. It’s a marketing gimmick. It’s used by people who want to sell themselves as being pragmatic, grounded in reality, able to work with other people, etc. while implying the opposite about their opponents.
The point of all this talk about self-identified centrists is to pull apart their facade and deconstruct the myth implied by their chosen label, because as far as I can tell, most centrists are no less ideological than anyone else, no more pragmatic than anyone else, and often not in the political centre. They’re none of the things they claim to be.
“DisplayNamesays:
Friday, March 6, 2020 at 6:58 pm”
So, what would you define as the centre?
If the people who label themselves “centrists” were all those things implied by their label, and that they claim to be, there wouldn’t be a problem would there :-P.
I’m not trying to define (or redefine) the centre (whatever that is). I’m pointing out that other people are, and questioning it, especially when they claim it’s such a nice place to be with their self conveniently in it.
As for me, I normally try to avoid labels. Labels are for people who are studying something and need to sort through a mess of information, with one strategy being to filter out a lot of the detail and group and name what’s left. However, doing so throws away information. If it’s you or me, in a conversation with a real person, what point is the label when you have the person right in front of you? It’s not the label you want to know, is it? I mean, apart from when we’re roleplaying political scientists :-P.
It always gets me when a politician starts talking to the public about “left”, “right” and “centre”. Don’t they know they’re in a conversation with actual people? Save that talk for your strategy meetings with other politicians :-P.
Centrist is a little different. It’s not my label for someone else. It’s their label for themselves. What information are they throwing away? If I’m the sort of person who is wary of labels, there should be little surprise when I go around attempting to deconstruct the labels people choose for themselves :-P.
“DisplayNamesays:
Friday, March 6, 2020 at 7:42 pm
If the people w…”
Fair enough. I guess you extend the same courtesy to the people on here who say they belong to the left and right as well.
I’ll actually agree that people on the centre are ideological – as much as any group that we aren’t naming. All humans do, AFAICS.
Blobbit
I’m suspicious of everyone. Pontificating on centrists is just my current hobby :-P.
I think my previous hobby was pontificating on the label “hypocrite”.
Display name – hilarious post. A three paragraph rant about “centrists” after which you claim you “don’t do labels”. Good to see self-awareness alive and well!
Biden now at Black Caviar odds to win nomination. Warren disses Sanders supporters for their bullying, nastiness and divisiveness.
Under a headline ‘How Bernie Sanders Can Still Win It All’:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/opinion/bernie-sanders-joe-biden.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
Yes Bernie can still win the nomination, but if explaining policy was the key then Elizabeth Warren would be out in front. Voters in the primaries have so far consistently told exit pollsters their primary motivation is selecting a candidate who can beat Trump. This election is a referendum on Trump. That’s it.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/opinion/joe-biden-southern-democrats.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
I think the Dems have made a mistake in coalescing around Biden. Clearly the DNC and their corporate donors would prefer defeating the left of the party made up of the future of the party (under 40) than defeating Donald Trump.
Now Sanders would be no certainty to win and in all probability would lose to Trump but with Biden it’s an absolute certainty. The Dems are trying to bring about change by repeating what they did in 2016.
Why will Biden be another Hillary? Because like Hillary he has similar political baggage. Going back to 1988 primaries candidate Biden withdrew after being caught plagiarising speeches of Neil Kinnock and RFK. He claimed he finished near the top of his law class when he was near the bottom.
Later he supported the war in Iraq he voted to cut government spending including that on Medicare and Medicaid and he voted to support the Free Trade Deals that cost American workers in Michigan and Ohio.
Just in the last week on the stage he confused his wife and his sister who were standing next to him and before that couldn’t finish the quote from the declaration of Independence because he forgot or got confused.
Trump will use this and Hunter Biden ( eq of Hillary’s emails) to run rings around Biden. Prepare yourself for four more years.
I find it strange that people posting here would confidently proclaim that they know the mind of the American people better than the actual American people voting in the primaries – people who talk to their families, neighbours and friends and are immersed in the American culture.
To sit in Australia with no lived experience of the USA (I realise there are a few exceptions to this) and confidently predict the Bernie is the only one who can beat Trump and Biden will definitely lose seems an awfully big stretch.
Our preferences are irrelevant to the result and are born out of a completely different political milieu. Personally I don’t think Biden has a particularly good policy background but the policies that can be implemented will be largely determined by the Congress so a Democrat House and Senate would appear to be pretty important. I suspect Joe will pretty much go with the flow as he seems to have done most of his political life.