2:35pm Friday Warren has dropped out, leaving a two-candidate race between Sanders and Biden. The delegate count at The Green Papers currently gives Biden a 671-599 lead over Sanders, from popular votes of 35.1% Biden, 28.7% Sanders. In California, Sanders has an 8.4% lead over Biden with over 3 million votes remaining, but some of these will be Republican primary votes. Late counting in California skews more left the longer it goes.
2:19pm Thursday Last night, Bloomberg withdrew from the contest and endorsed Biden. No decision has yet been made by Warren. In California, Sanders leads by 8.7% with all election day precincts reporting. We should know approximately how many outstanding votes are left tomorrow.
9:53pm Conversation article up. Biden is likely to win ten states to four for Sanders, and has a 102-delegate lead in The Green Papers count. In 2016, Clinton had little appeal to lower-educated whites, and that’s likely why Sanders was competitive. But Biden has more appeal to the lower-educated than Clinton. Once moderate rivals withdrew, he consolidated the moderate vote.
8:37pm With 79% of election day precincts counted in California, Sanders leads Biden by 31.8% to 22.8%. California takes FOUR weeks to count all its votes, so there’s lots of late counting to look forward to!
7:32pm With almost all votes counted in the Israeli election, the right bloc lost a seat, so Netanyahu will be three seats short of a majority. It’s right 58 out of 120, left 55, Yisrael Beiteinu seven.
7:27pm The California Secretary of State now has 64% of precincts reporting, and Sanders is almost 10% ahead of Biden.
6:00pm Texas CALLED for Biden.
4:15pm Biden up to a 1.8% lead in Texas, and the Needle now gives him a 70% chance to win.
4:06pm Biden overtakes Sanders in Texas. He’s 0.4% ahead with 60% of election day precincts in. The Needle gives Biden a 56% chance to win Texas.
4:05pm The NY Times shows 23% of California’s Election Day precincts have already reported, but the California Secretary of State (the official results service) says only 4%.
3:47pm With 54% of election day votes reporting in Texas, Sanders leads by 1.2%. The Needle still sees this as 50-50 between Sanders and Biden.
3:21pm Dave Wasserman has called Texas for Biden, but the NY Times Needle says it’s 50-50 with 34% reporting. Sanders has a 3.6% lead.
3:18pm Massachusetts officially CALLED for Biden. With 65% reporting, he has 33.4%, Sanders 26.7% and Warren 22.1%.
3:10pm With 93% of election day votes in in North Carolina, Biden’s lead is now almost 19 points, up from seven before election day votes.
3:03pm California not called for Sanders, but it looks good for hime in exit polls. Biden likely the only other candidate who breaks the 15% delegate threshold statewide.
2:47pm Minnesota CALLED for Biden. He leads by eight points with 57% reporting. Sanders was supposed to win here.
2:45pm With 43% reporting in Alabama, Sanders is at 16.2%, close to the 15% delegate threshold. Falling below 15% would be a disaster for Sanders.
2:34pm Sanders has won Utah, a stronghold for Republicans where the small Democratic electorate is progressive.
2:30pm In Texas, Sanders leads Biden by 5.6% with 23% of election day precincts in. The NY Times needle has Biden very slightly ahead.
2:25pm Dave Wasserman projects Elizabeth Warren will finish third in her home state of Massachusetts, behind Biden (first) and Sanders (second).
2:15pm While I was out for lunch, Biden was CALLED the winner in Arkansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee, giving him six state wins. Sanders won Colorado, mainly due a split early vote. Early voting dominates in that state. Biden currently leads in Minnesota and Massachusetts, which Sanders was supposed to win.
1:01pm The NY Times needle gives Biden a 68% chance of winning Texas although Sanders currently leads by 6.6%.
12:58pm As the Election Day vote comes through in North Carolina, Biden increases his lead. He’s now leading in NC by 11% with 29% in.
12:45pm In Virginia, where the election day vote was virtually all voters, Biden leads Sanders by 54-23 with 96% reporting.
12:34pm Maybe early voting will stop Biden from routing Sanders. Biden is only up by seven points over Sanders in North Carolina with 12% of Election Day precincts reporting. Biden not doing so well in votes cast before South Carolina and the withdrawals.
12:18pm With 66% reporting in Virginia, Biden is crushing Sanders by 30 points.
12:15pm Polls in Arkansas close at 12:30pm, then it’s Colorado and Minnesota at 1pm, Utah at 2pm and finally California at 3pm.
12:10pm As regards Texas, a small part of the state is in the Mountain Time zone and doesn’t close til 1pm AEDT. Exit polls will be released then.
12:06pm Alabama CALLED for Biden, while the other 12pm states are uncalled. In Massachusetts, it’s a close three-way race between Biden, Sanders and Warren (it’s Warren’s home state).
11:57am Biden is over 20% in the first Vermont results. If he stays above 15% there, he gets delegates, which Hillary Clinton was unable to do in 2016.
11:49am Biden has a 55-23 lead over Sanders in Virginia with 32% in.
11:40am Count in Virginia is already up to 22%, and it’s Biden by a crushing 54-24 over Sanders with nobody else close to clearing 15%.
11:34am CNN CALLS North Carolina for Biden based on a large exit poll lead. This is looking better and better for Biden.
11:27am With 1% reporting in Virginia, Biden leads Sanders by 51-25. Everyone else is well below the 15% delegate threshold.
11:24am The next polls to close are North Carolina at 11:30am AEDT, then Alabama, Maine, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas at 12pm.
11:08am Sanders CALLED the winner in his home state of Vermont, but the exit polls suggest Biden will beat the 15% threshold there, restricting Sanders’ delegate advantage.
11:01am Biden CALLED the winner in Virginia by CNN based on exit polls. He has a 63-18 lead over Sanders with black voters (27% of the electorate) and a 43-26 lead with whites (63% of electorate).
10:20am Wednesday With 94% counted in the Israeli election, right-wing parties have 59 seats (up four since the September 2019 election) and left-wing parties 54 (down three). Likud is the biggest party with a 36-32 lead over Blue & White, reversing the 33-32 deficit last September. It appears that Netanyahu’s coalition will be two seats short of a majority.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
Fourteen states vote in the Super Tuesday Democratic primaries tomorrow, in which 1,357 of the 3,979 total pledged delegates are awarded (34% of all delegates). Delegates are awarded proportionally to vote share, but with a high 15% threshold that applies to both statewide delegates and Congressional District (CD) delegates. The more Democratic-leaning a CD is, the more delegates it receives. Polls close between 11am and 3pm AEDT.
A few days ago, it appeared likely that Bernie Sanders would come out of Super Tuesday with a large delegate lead over his nearest rival. Even if Sanders did not win a majority of Super Tuesday pledged delegates, such an outcome would have put him on course for a large plurality of all pledged delegates at the July Democratic convention. In those circumstances, Sanders would probably be the nominee.
However, Joe Biden had a crushing 28-point win over Sanders at Saturday’s South Carolina primary. In the next two days, moderate rivals Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar withdrew from the contest and endorsed Biden. There has not been enough time for polls to catch up with these developments, but they are very likely to assist Biden.
The FiveThirtyEight forecast has the chance nobody wins a pledged delegate majority surging to 63%. This does not necessarily mean a contested convention, as it includes cases where one candidate wins a strong plurality, and a deal is worked out before the convention. No delegate majority chances have surged because Mike Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren are still in, and will be assisted in getting to 15% by the withdrawals.
Sanders now has just a 52% chance of winning more delegates than any other candidate, down from over 70% at his peak, while Biden’s chances have rocketed to 48%. The Democratic contest is now effectively a race between two men in their late 70s, and the winner will confront Donald Trump, who is a mere 73.
I recommend The Green Papers for delegate and popular vote counts. The next contests are next Tuesday, when six states vote that account for 9% of pledged delegates.
Netanyahu could win Israeli election outright
With 81% counted in Monday’s Israeli election, right-wing PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc of parties had 60 of the 120 seats, to 53 for the opposition left bloc. If the right bloc wins one more seat, Netanyahu would have outright victory after April and September 2019 elections resulted in no government being formed. Yisrael Beiteinu, with seven seats, was unable to cooperate with either the Arab Joint List or the religious right parties before. This result comes despite Netanyahu’s November indictment on bribery and fraud charges.
Yeah I’m just sure embracing it is not the solution, it might be the only way to win, but you lose more than you win by winning that way.
WeWantPaul – you may well be correct in that assessment. But that still leaves us with conservative, venal and reactionary people in power. From the far Left, it may look pragmatic Lefties and fascists are the same, but we’re not. We’re just more practical versions of you. We’re not as far apart on the issues as you think, we just have different approaches to getting there.
This I don’t get, because I agree with you, a lot of the Trump vote was a vote to burn the place down, not all, but a lot. Why when a really really good centrist candidate lost to Trump, would a really really ordinary centrist candidate beat him?
arch conservative david frum & other never trumpers talk to graham vyse about their thoughts on voting for a democratic socialist in order to vote against trump.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/03/never-trump-maybe-bernie-118981
[Tom] Nichols, a professor at the Naval War College and prominent Twitter pundit, called Sanders “a silly old crank,” noting that he’d been one of the senator’s constituents while living in Vermont in the 1990s. As much he opposes a socialist agenda, Nichols said, “I know how to argue against policies like that. I don’t know how to argue against mendacity as a policy.
-a.v.
Vox pop on ABC on democrat primaries. First woman (paraphrasing)
“I voted for Joe Biden because….umm….. I think…. he’s a person who….. [extra long pause]…. errr… I can connect too”
Interpretation: I voted Biden for no reason whatsoever.
US centre-left politics right there.
I really have to go but today is the key.
If Biden does really well in the south takes texas and is competitive in California the centrists win, most of the center left get behind him and some of the ‘we like it just the way it is but now we have power fully entrenched in so many places we don’t want any changes’ Rick Wilson type republicans support Biden, at least until he is elected / defeated.
If Bernie has a good day in California takes Texas and doesn’t do to terribly in incredibly conservative states, then either they dems make him their candidate and get behind him, or tear the party apart and lose to Trump. The centrists can’t do poorly today and shaft Bernie and expect to win.
“Interpretation: I voted Biden for no reason whatsoever.
US centre-left politics right there.”
***
Yep and then there’s all the people who will vote for Bloomberg today after being brainwashed into doing so by his hundreds of millions of dollars worth of ads.
And ask those people who vote Biden or Bloomberg today about any one of Bernie’s policies, and the vast majority of them will say they agree with him.
But can’t vote for him because…. err…. reasons..
A big issue for Sanders fans is that so many of his fans take voters who don’t want to vote for him for fools, and seem to regard those not on the bandwagon with contempt. You Bernie fans might find more success for your candidate if you try to reach out and find common ground, rather than just write off non-Sanders voters as “centrists” and sell-outs. To paraphrase Adlai Stevenson when, after a speech was told by a supporter that Stevenson “had just won the vote of every thinking American”. “But Ma’am”, replied Stevenson, “I need a majority!” It is possibly the case that most Sanders voters are brighter than average, and that most people who vote are not that informed about the issues. But you’re not going to get very far if you just write those people off as idiots.
Exclusionary parties are losing parties.
Personally I flap like a dunny door on a windy cape – between socialism, anarchism and capitalism and combinations therein. Get me on a bad day without coffee or whiskey and I can be rabidly authoritarian.
I like it that other people are so sure of their political ideology. However, most of the voting public are not so firm. And, I would argue, one needs to be prepared to be flexible depending on the times. Capitalism may work for a while, so may socialism, but not in all sectors and not forever. Everything, over time, gets corrupted and change is needed. This is social science not laws of physics.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/03/super-tuesday-live-updates/#link-I4ML4KN7GVFQ5PWD3XWSUNQ7JU
clem attlee
“If you’re not a socialist, you’re not of the left.”
That’s the sort of nonsense that alienates people from your cause.
Who would benefit from that tactic Fess?
For once the WP surely can’t blame Bernie for this – as he more than any other candidate needs high voter turnout.
“Who would benefit from that tactic Fess?”
***
If I had to guess I’d say it’s probably the far-right MAGA fascists at it again. Remember how they clogged up the Iowa phone line to cause chaos?
Yep. The youth revolution never really happens.
Shannon Pettypiece
@spettypi
· 1h
Breaking news: young people still don’t vote. In NBC News exit poll, 13 percent of voters were between 18-29
I can report that my Dad voted for Bernie in the CA primaries, but thinks Biden will win the candidacy and will be a better chance; and thinks Trump will lie and deceive his way to get back in regardless of who he stands against. I’m inclined to agree with him.
Nervous as hell about today – feels like it could be a pivotal moment in terms of the fight for climate change action
Victoria @ #65 Wednesday, March 4th, 2020 – 9:39 am
Umm, that’s a pretty meaningless number without context.
About 10 minutes to the first reported result. Probably a town with 7 registered voters – who each gave a vote to the remaining candidates…
Dandy Murray
I agree that Biden has the best shot. And until very recently I would have agreed that Trump will likely get a 2nd term. But if the US economy tanks, Trumps’s in serious trouble.
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, March 4, 2020 at 7:23 am
PaulTu @ #16 Wednesday, March 4th, 2020 – 12:24 am
Does anyone else view the rather unseemly haste of Buttiglieg and Klobuchar to rush to Biden’s side as a competitive race to try to be Biden’s appointed VP?
After all, whoever gets that ticket will stand a pretty good chance of “movin’ up” to POTUS at some stage of a Biden presidency (should that eventuate).
If so, will this reduce the number of their supporters who switch to support Biden?
————-
No. You obviously don’t understand the American system, nor this particular race.
Firstly, a candidate who remains in the race but is endorsed by former candidates, is directing their supporters who to vote for instead. Nothing about jockeying for position. In fact, the only position Biden categorically offered was to Beto O’Rourke to head up a task force to deal with the guns issue. Hardly controversial and definitely not opportunistic by Beto because his stance on guns caused him to drop out of the race!
———
Really??
So you believe that these two (and others) recent posturing is completely “altruistic”?
Don’t buy it!
Just a few minutes until the first polls close. The first states to close will be Vermont and Virginia. Vermont will of course be won easily by its senior Senator, but Virginia should be interesting, being as it is something of a dividing line between Biden territory and Sanders-land. For what they are worth, two polls out today put Biden well in front, suggesting that the SC bump for Biden will be real.
Will votes cast for candidates that have withdrawn just disappear into the ether? What happens to any pledged delegates associated with those candidates?
He is fairly consistently -10 on approval and behind on head to heads in some crucial states like NC, Florida, Penn, Mich with some others with potential to flip (need to see more polling in Ohio and Ariz). Be good if a moderate Republican or Libertarian nominates again to muddy Trumps waters.
Both Biden and Sanders will run good campaigns. The concern is health/stamina during what will be a busy and hard fought campaign. VP pick for both of these two will be important. They will need to be energetic and popular.
Stay positive. Use the force.
Breaking news: young people still don’t vote. In NBC News exit poll, 13 percent of voters were between 18-29
maybe they’re at college today & voted earlier by mail. -a.v.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/mar/03/super-tuesday-2020-live-news-bernie-sanders-joe-biden-california-texas-primaries-latest-updates
Biden projected to win Virginia; Sanders wins Vermont
The polls in Vermont and Virginia have just closed, but both states have already been called because of the results of entrance polls.
Bernie Sanders has won his home state of Vermont, as expected, but Joe Biden has surprisingly already been declared the winner of Virginia.
Bellwether – so long as those ex-candidates remain on the ballot papers, people can vote for them, and if they reach the required thresholds, then they will earn delegates. Those delegates are then up for grabs at the Convention, though presumably most Buttigieg and Klobuchar delegates will move over to Biden if required. Today’s polling suggests that they won’t in fact reach the thresholds (Klobuchar, for example, has crashed from around 29% to 2% in Minnesota), though their previously-won delegates still stand.
Hugoaugogo @ #77 Wednesday, March 4th, 2020 – 11:08 am
Thanks for that.
Virginia’s already called for Biden – must have smashed it in the exit polls…. ominously good early signs for the do-nothing centrists…
Well said.
Hugoaugogo/Bellwether – candidates who have dropped out
I learnt today on Kos that there is one state – Colorado from memory – where if candidates submit the relevant forms confirming they wish to drop out, their votes are not counted at all
Buttigieg and Klobuchar put the forms in today
Thanks for that Ray (UK). It’s probably unlikely that either of them will get anywhere near the required thresholds anyway, so it’s probably something a dead letter.
“Maybe Hewson would have turned out as bad as Howard, but i doubt it.”
Hewson would have been just as bad if not worse then Howard.
“The key elements of Fightback! were:
Changes to industrial relations, including the abolition of awards and the elimination of automatic entitlements to unemployment benefits after nine months”
North Carolina next to close, at 11.30 AEDT, though given the results in SC & VA, you’d have to think that will be another comfortable win for Biden.
There are a whole heap of states – namely Alabama, Maine, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas – reporting at midday AEDT, so there will lots of grist to our mills soon enough.
Sigh, and on and on goes the rortgoround. McCann is blaming everyone else for the “error.” What’s the bet that he’s also part of the born-to-rule rabble?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/sport-australia-admits-it-misled-senate-inquiry-over-sports-funding-program-20200304-p546op.html
Virginia exit poll
Biden winning first time Democratic voters 36-32 over Sanders
Sanders may be carried to oblivion by a wave of youth apathy.
The networks have called NC for Biden on the basis of exit polls (though apparently one polling booth has stayed open a bit later, so they won’t start actually counting votes for about half an hour (12.10pm AEDT).
Were these early results expected for Biden? Are they particular Biden demographics?
Either way my sense is that today will be a wipeout for Biden. I thought Bernie was leading the polls in NC??
Almost ready to call the democratic nomination right now.
Oh well, at least Bloomberg didn’t get it..
Marking these numbers to see how they change tomorrow
538 Model – majority of delegates : Nobody 61%, JB 31%, BS 8%
…………………..total pledged delegates : JB 1738, BS 1363, MB 555, EW 283
The Model is frozen currently but you can see what the latest forecast was eg Biden appears to be over-performing in VA in vote % and delegates
Firefox says:
Wednesday, March 4, 2020 at 9:51 am
“Interpretation: I voted Biden for no reason whatsoever.
US centre-left politics right there.”
***
Yep and then there’s all the people who will vote for Bloomberg….
The pop-left really do think they’re above everyone else. They might as well brand themselves as The Sneers.
Why is Sanders on the nose with young people and Afro-Americans?
I can see where all this is leading:
Biden/young hispanic female POTUS candidate team + Bloomberg’s billions + zealous Sanders supporters keen to end the destruction of the US polity could just about toss Trump.
By ‘eck them Virginians count the votes quickly
65% in, 55-23-10-9 Biden-Sanders-Warren-Bloomberg
538 Forecast model had roughly 43-24-12-16
Boerwar
“Why is Sanders on the nose with young people and Afro-Americans?
I thought Sanders was on the nose with older/retired Democrats…. who (unlike many of the youngest voters) actually show up to vote
Gee, Bernie getting his arse handed to him so far
But early days..
Networks have called Alabama for Biden, based on exit polls. A stonking start to the night for Biden, though presumably Sanders will do much better when the western states start reporting.
Bloomberg leading in Oklahoma – Yeehaah!
From NYTimes feed..
Trip Gabriel
Trip Gabriel, in Charlotte, N.C. 1m ago
One clue to Sanders’s tough night so far: Turnout by voters under 30 in Virginia and N.C. is proportionately lower than in the 2016 primaries, according to exit polls.
Nate Cohn
Nate Cohn, in New York 4m ago
Biden now favored to win the most delegates tonight, according to our estimates, and we’re pretty cautious about letting the results in one place dictate another.
Comment on Daily Kos
“Biden had one field office and almost no paid TV in Virginia … where was all that “establishment” money that Bernie talks about”