2:35pm Friday Warren has dropped out, leaving a two-candidate race between Sanders and Biden. The delegate count at The Green Papers currently gives Biden a 671-599 lead over Sanders, from popular votes of 35.1% Biden, 28.7% Sanders. In California, Sanders has an 8.4% lead over Biden with over 3 million votes remaining, but some of these will be Republican primary votes. Late counting in California skews more left the longer it goes.
2:19pm Thursday Last night, Bloomberg withdrew from the contest and endorsed Biden. No decision has yet been made by Warren. In California, Sanders leads by 8.7% with all election day precincts reporting. We should know approximately how many outstanding votes are left tomorrow.
9:53pm Conversation article up. Biden is likely to win ten states to four for Sanders, and has a 102-delegate lead in The Green Papers count. In 2016, Clinton had little appeal to lower-educated whites, and that’s likely why Sanders was competitive. But Biden has more appeal to the lower-educated than Clinton. Once moderate rivals withdrew, he consolidated the moderate vote.
8:37pm With 79% of election day precincts counted in California, Sanders leads Biden by 31.8% to 22.8%. California takes FOUR weeks to count all its votes, so there’s lots of late counting to look forward to!
7:32pm With almost all votes counted in the Israeli election, the right bloc lost a seat, so Netanyahu will be three seats short of a majority. It’s right 58 out of 120, left 55, Yisrael Beiteinu seven.
7:27pm The California Secretary of State now has 64% of precincts reporting, and Sanders is almost 10% ahead of Biden.
6:00pm Texas CALLED for Biden.
4:15pm Biden up to a 1.8% lead in Texas, and the Needle now gives him a 70% chance to win.
4:06pm Biden overtakes Sanders in Texas. He’s 0.4% ahead with 60% of election day precincts in. The Needle gives Biden a 56% chance to win Texas.
4:05pm The NY Times shows 23% of California’s Election Day precincts have already reported, but the California Secretary of State (the official results service) says only 4%.
3:47pm With 54% of election day votes reporting in Texas, Sanders leads by 1.2%. The Needle still sees this as 50-50 between Sanders and Biden.
3:21pm Dave Wasserman has called Texas for Biden, but the NY Times Needle says it’s 50-50 with 34% reporting. Sanders has a 3.6% lead.
3:18pm Massachusetts officially CALLED for Biden. With 65% reporting, he has 33.4%, Sanders 26.7% and Warren 22.1%.
3:10pm With 93% of election day votes in in North Carolina, Biden’s lead is now almost 19 points, up from seven before election day votes.
3:03pm California not called for Sanders, but it looks good for hime in exit polls. Biden likely the only other candidate who breaks the 15% delegate threshold statewide.
2:47pm Minnesota CALLED for Biden. He leads by eight points with 57% reporting. Sanders was supposed to win here.
2:45pm With 43% reporting in Alabama, Sanders is at 16.2%, close to the 15% delegate threshold. Falling below 15% would be a disaster for Sanders.
2:34pm Sanders has won Utah, a stronghold for Republicans where the small Democratic electorate is progressive.
2:30pm In Texas, Sanders leads Biden by 5.6% with 23% of election day precincts in. The NY Times needle has Biden very slightly ahead.
2:25pm Dave Wasserman projects Elizabeth Warren will finish third in her home state of Massachusetts, behind Biden (first) and Sanders (second).
2:15pm While I was out for lunch, Biden was CALLED the winner in Arkansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee, giving him six state wins. Sanders won Colorado, mainly due a split early vote. Early voting dominates in that state. Biden currently leads in Minnesota and Massachusetts, which Sanders was supposed to win.
1:01pm The NY Times needle gives Biden a 68% chance of winning Texas although Sanders currently leads by 6.6%.
12:58pm As the Election Day vote comes through in North Carolina, Biden increases his lead. He’s now leading in NC by 11% with 29% in.
12:45pm In Virginia, where the election day vote was virtually all voters, Biden leads Sanders by 54-23 with 96% reporting.
12:34pm Maybe early voting will stop Biden from routing Sanders. Biden is only up by seven points over Sanders in North Carolina with 12% of Election Day precincts reporting. Biden not doing so well in votes cast before South Carolina and the withdrawals.
12:18pm With 66% reporting in Virginia, Biden is crushing Sanders by 30 points.
12:15pm Polls in Arkansas close at 12:30pm, then it’s Colorado and Minnesota at 1pm, Utah at 2pm and finally California at 3pm.
12:10pm As regards Texas, a small part of the state is in the Mountain Time zone and doesn’t close til 1pm AEDT. Exit polls will be released then.
12:06pm Alabama CALLED for Biden, while the other 12pm states are uncalled. In Massachusetts, it’s a close three-way race between Biden, Sanders and Warren (it’s Warren’s home state).
11:57am Biden is over 20% in the first Vermont results. If he stays above 15% there, he gets delegates, which Hillary Clinton was unable to do in 2016.
11:49am Biden has a 55-23 lead over Sanders in Virginia with 32% in.
11:40am Count in Virginia is already up to 22%, and it’s Biden by a crushing 54-24 over Sanders with nobody else close to clearing 15%.
11:34am CNN CALLS North Carolina for Biden based on a large exit poll lead. This is looking better and better for Biden.
11:27am With 1% reporting in Virginia, Biden leads Sanders by 51-25. Everyone else is well below the 15% delegate threshold.
11:24am The next polls to close are North Carolina at 11:30am AEDT, then Alabama, Maine, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas at 12pm.
11:08am Sanders CALLED the winner in his home state of Vermont, but the exit polls suggest Biden will beat the 15% threshold there, restricting Sanders’ delegate advantage.
11:01am Biden CALLED the winner in Virginia by CNN based on exit polls. He has a 63-18 lead over Sanders with black voters (27% of the electorate) and a 43-26 lead with whites (63% of electorate).
10:20am Wednesday With 94% counted in the Israeli election, right-wing parties have 59 seats (up four since the September 2019 election) and left-wing parties 54 (down three). Likud is the biggest party with a 36-32 lead over Blue & White, reversing the 33-32 deficit last September. It appears that Netanyahu’s coalition will be two seats short of a majority.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
Fourteen states vote in the Super Tuesday Democratic primaries tomorrow, in which 1,357 of the 3,979 total pledged delegates are awarded (34% of all delegates). Delegates are awarded proportionally to vote share, but with a high 15% threshold that applies to both statewide delegates and Congressional District (CD) delegates. The more Democratic-leaning a CD is, the more delegates it receives. Polls close between 11am and 3pm AEDT.
A few days ago, it appeared likely that Bernie Sanders would come out of Super Tuesday with a large delegate lead over his nearest rival. Even if Sanders did not win a majority of Super Tuesday pledged delegates, such an outcome would have put him on course for a large plurality of all pledged delegates at the July Democratic convention. In those circumstances, Sanders would probably be the nominee.
However, Joe Biden had a crushing 28-point win over Sanders at Saturday’s South Carolina primary. In the next two days, moderate rivals Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar withdrew from the contest and endorsed Biden. There has not been enough time for polls to catch up with these developments, but they are very likely to assist Biden.
The FiveThirtyEight forecast has the chance nobody wins a pledged delegate majority surging to 63%. This does not necessarily mean a contested convention, as it includes cases where one candidate wins a strong plurality, and a deal is worked out before the convention. No delegate majority chances have surged because Mike Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren are still in, and will be assisted in getting to 15% by the withdrawals.
Sanders now has just a 52% chance of winning more delegates than any other candidate, down from over 70% at his peak, while Biden’s chances have rocketed to 48%. The Democratic contest is now effectively a race between two men in their late 70s, and the winner will confront Donald Trump, who is a mere 73.
I recommend The Green Papers for delegate and popular vote counts. The next contests are next Tuesday, when six states vote that account for 9% of pledged delegates.
Netanyahu could win Israeli election outright
With 81% counted in Monday’s Israeli election, right-wing PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc of parties had 60 of the 120 seats, to 53 for the opposition left bloc. If the right bloc wins one more seat, Netanyahu would have outright victory after April and September 2019 elections resulted in no government being formed. Yisrael Beiteinu, with seven seats, was unable to cooperate with either the Arab Joint List or the religious right parties before. This result comes despite Netanyahu’s November indictment on bribery and fraud charges.
Historyintime. Who are these far leftists of which you speak? The ones that want a public health system? The ones that want to do away with obscene tax breaks for the rich? The ones who want a minimum wage? If that is your definition of a far leftist, than I guess I’m your man. It just leaves me wondering though… what are you? I think we both know the answer to that and now are just haggling over the price.
I save my rants for this forum. I’m much more, how do you put it, oh yeah, *pragmatic*, when it comes to talking to real people ;-). I’m sure most people are aware that the way we talk to each other in this forum mostly only serves to entrench already held views :-P.
Put up your hand anyone who’s changed their mind due to my soapboxing? *crickets*
Displayname, yeah, i don’t think anyone is seeking to change a person’s view, I mean a Grouper is a Grouper, but you have to challenge the lies and propaganda. You just cannot let that nonsense go unchallenged. The Groupers want Biden as the nominee. Biden is senile. They say, yeah we know, but we don’t care. You have to coax that degree of honesty out of them through debate and then they have to own that sort of stupidity.
Gotta love Oscar Wilde.
Well Clem, were I to change my moniker it might be Tony Crosland, or Denis Healy. Maybe even Ernie Bevin. They were all sworn enemies of the far left but surely supporters of progressive reform. Attlee himself had no time for the far left.
Yeah but he advocated policies that Sanders is pursuing and you label him as an extreme leftist. BTW Healy came ttthhhiiissss close to going over to the Social Democrats. Attlee never sold out!
The 1st Earl Attlee (pre-1964 PMs got Earldoms, upon retirement from the Commons) was loyal to Labour until his death in 1967.
The 2nd Earl Attlee was Labour until 1981, when switched to the Social Democrats.
The 3rd Earl Attlee is a Tory, who served in David Cameron`s government.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earl_Attlee
Elizabeth Warren is out.
#New #Florida @StPetePolls
(Change since Feb 26):
Biden 61% (+27)
Bloomberg 14% (-11)
Sanders 12% (-1)
Warren 5% (-2)
(Poll Conducted Mar 4) https://t.co/UjQxGi0Oby
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) March 5, 2020
Some you people should probably reconsider posting in the early hours. Just sayin’.
PPP Head to head poll in Arizona (rated B by 538) has Biden just in front of Trump 48-47.
Trump won in 2016 48-45 ish with 4pts to the Libertarian.
Suggests Dems can flip Arizona but also suggests Trumps % hasn’t changed much since 2016. Hard to read too much into it considering MOE, time to election and the unknowns caused by the Libertarian in 2016… other than it is well in play.
Poll has Sanders 1pt behind Trunp
Oh look, Clem Attlee is on his favourite hobby horse: Groupers! Groupers!
Must on a park bench in St Kilda screaming at the seagulls by now!
Groupers!!
FWIW the same pollster has Ttump disapproval at 14 – higher than the average and 538 give them a +0.3 lean to Dem.
The magic surplus that doesn’t exist raises its fantasy head again.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/how-big-will-the-deficit-be-coronavirus-stimulus-package-to-wipe-out-surplus-20200305-p5475j.html
“”I can guarantee the Australian people that they will get the strong economic management they voted for,” the Prime Minister said.” BWAHAHAHAHA…Sloganman strikes again.
Gaffes. Haven’t we learn from Bush jr and Trunp they only matter to talking heads?
Biden needs to own his gaffes like this guy did.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JhmdEq3JhoY
Earlwood Grouper is as Grouper does, if it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck… just saying… You reckon I’m a drunk. I’m not the one advocating for the nomination of a shambling wreck who is incapable of stringing a coherent sentence together. No that is you. Ha, ha. Oh the irony.
Come on AE & clem, leave it for after dark. Please.
https://giphy.com/gifs/pink-sweet-despicable-me-aZ4sQUpybai5y
Now Biden has locked in the south, particularly black voters, Bernie is focusing on the midwest. Wonder if that’s why the Michigan Governor has come out to endorse Biden.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/us/politics/bernie-sanders-democratic-primary.html
Clem
I agree with you about Earlwood.
I think Sanders will demolish Biden on the debate stage.
The very inflexibility the Establishment Democrats talk about is is his greatest strength.
Still assume I am wrong and Biden wins.
Trump is in the same trouble as Morrison. Just worse.
All the gutting of universal healthcare and workers rights are going to hit the Western Democracies very hard.
The Western economies have been built to have people out working unless they are literally at death’s door. You only have to look at the stock market to see the corporations are panicking. Plenty of tools for boosting the demand side of politics. A massive downturn in the supply side not so much.
By November the world could be in recession heading towards a Depression.
So even if Biden does beat Sanders (which I doubt Biden has to bring in the young. Just as Sanders has to bring in black voters) tthe prospects are looking better for the Democratic nominee at the General.
I am assuming an infection rate in the virus slightly below that of the flu due to panic but not by much. The American economy has been structured so much to capitalism and dog eat dog society I just don’t see anything other than disaster for the US.our government is bad but we still do have some real sick leave left and a stronger union movement.
This disaster is going to see the end of politics as it used to be. All the faults of capitalism have already started to be amplified in society. Those faults Trump exploited with his demagoguery are going to be an anchor on Trump’s campaign.
So I think we are at the darkest before the dawn for progressive antiestablishment politics. I think the shocks are going to boost politics for people not corporations that much faster. So fast I think it’s going to be a very big part of the General election.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/taibbi-useful-idiots-podcast-873547/
Some thoughts on a VP pick if Biden wins the nomination. Incidentally Nichols isn’t a fan of Stacey Abrams because he doesn’t think she is experienced enough, although I do think Biden (or Bernie for that matter) would select a woman of colour.
I thought a grouper was a fish.
I think it could be Klob as a VP pick. She won Minnesota and handed it to Biden, if she can translate that popularity to other Mid-Western states it would help a lot.
mimhoff @ #923 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 9:32 am
I’m not so sure. The ‘Black Lives Matter’ people don’t like her, at all, and the Democrats need African-American votes.
Kakuru @ #922 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 9:26 am
You have to be pre-tty old to know what a Grouper is. 🙂
Obviously it would be a mistake to take it for granted – he’s not an Obama or even either of the Clintons – but it looks like Joe can carry the African-American vote.
Biden will assume his background will win Penn and Michigan.. maybe Ohio. His VP pick will be aimed at improving chances in one or more of NC And Fl … maybe Texas Arizona.
I see the allure of a VP to ensure Penn, Mich and maybe Ohio. But I think Biden will look for diversity.
SK:
You’re assuming Biden wins the nomination when the primaries are far from a done deal for one candidate or the other.
Joe Biden has probably got Amy Klobuchar, as his surrogate, campaigning across the Mid West States that hold their Primaries next Tuesday, even as we speak.
‘Elizabeth Warren is out.’
Yeah and she won’t be endorsing anyone yet. The fact she is holding off endorsing Bernie Sanders and has even met with Joe Biden people harms her sincerity in shaking up Wall st. Biden won’t do anything. She has met with Sanders people as well though its bern reported.
I presume the hold up is some of Sanders supporters have been quite full on attacking her and Warren has been left battered and bruised and isn’t rushing to endorse Sanders becsuse Sanders never tried to rein them in. Their friendship has be quite strained as shown from this debate clip.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FJKml2WUQI4
Bernie also told Warren that a woman can’t win the presidency so I don’t blame her in holding back any endorsement of the man.
I’m sorry to see Warren go. Once the voting started, she’s the one I probably would have voted for. But once she started the voting so poorly, it was always going to be really hard for her to make a comeback, especially once Sanders got off to such a strong start, and impossible once Biden found his mojo.
So, the party that purports to represent diversity is tossing up between two septuagenarian white men. Probably not the ideal outcome, but hopefully one of them can beat Trump in November anyway.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/05/elizabeth-warren-drops-out-2020-121931
SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — Mike Bloomberg is out of the Democratic presidential race, but he’s not done trying to beat President Donald Trump. The billionaire businessman is funding an anti-Trump operation in six battleground states in an effort to oust the Republican president in November.
Bloomberg will dip into his vast fortune to pay for field offices in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, campaign aides said Thursday. It will be done through some type of independent expenditure committee that won’t be able to coordinate with any campaign, though aides are still figuring out the legal details and what the name and budget of the organization will be.
Bloomberg, a former New York City mayor, exited the race on Wednesday after a dismal performance in the 14 Super Tuesday states. He immediately endorsed Joe Biden.
“We’re not done with you yet, Donald,” he tweeted Thursday along with an anti-Trump video that said ”#GoJoe” at the end.
It’s unclear when Bloomberg’s new operation will launch and how it will shift if Biden is not the party’s nominee. Aides to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who is battling Biden for the nomination, have said they do not want Bloomberg’s money, and Bloomberg has said he may not spend to help him.
https://apnews.com/3ff9ed040fec676818ff15d2a22e0f7b?utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_medium=AP_Politics
Morrison fucked up the Crooked Grants, the Drought, the Fires, the Afghanistan War, the Virus and now the Economy.
Morrison is as useless as tits on a bull.
Warren will want to back the winner and will find a way to lend her weight to Biden. The easiest way to do this is simply to withhold support from Sanders, who has been her chief rival in this campaign.
When the presidential campaign proper starts she will stand with Biden.
At this point, Trump has a real race on his hands. Democratic voters are voting in large numbers. They want to rid themselves of Trump. Biden is their instrument of choice. The Democratic plurality is numerous enough to remove Trump if they stay unified and motivated. There will be down-ticket consequences as well…perhaps strong enough to swing the Senate and consolidate the House for Democrats too.
Boerwar @ #934 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 11:32 am
Wrong thread, Boerwar. 😆
RI,
Yes, I can’t see how Elizabeth Warren could endorse Bernie Sanders after he publicly lied about his meeting with her and the words he said about a woman being able to win.
Boerwar says:
Friday, March 6, 2020 at 11:32 am
Morrison fucked up the Crooked Grants, the Drought, the Fires, the Afghanistan War, the Virus and now the Economy.
Morrison is as useless as tits on a bull.
Morrison has a chance to redeem his standing in his response to the virus. If he can minimise the death rate and the economic impact, he will be rewarded. If he stuffs up the social spread and the medical responses, and if the economy really tanks, then he will be cactus.
It’s a bit early to tell how this will play out. They’re quite right to be trying to expedite the economic measures but they will have to be significant to have any noticeable effect. Too little is really known about the virus to be able to predict how transmission and illness will play out, especially as winter is approaching and warmer conditions receding. The natural response of the electorate will be to rally to authority at first. But if the government is seen to fail then nothing will save them.
C@tmomma says:
Friday, March 6, 2020 at 11:40 am
RI,
Yes, I can’t see how Elizabeth Warren could endorse Bernie Sanders after he publicly lied about his meeting with her and the words he said about a woman being able to win.
I agree. But she will not want to be seen to be making her political choices on the basis of the personal. I reckon she will simply distance herself from Sanders. As well, she will advance her own standing if she’s seen as the unifying voice…the voice that can bring both wings of the Democratic Party together. She can best do that be endorsing Biden at an appropriate moment.
Warren’s departure is sad but inevitable. She’s a real progressive who has really progressive ideas with actual details on how they could be implemented. I hope she continues to have influence on the policy discourse of the next year and influence the Democratic platform, so it can still push progressive ideas and not just be a “Don’t rock the boat. Trump bad.” hollow one (not that I think it would be.)
RI,
Warrenn pitched herself as the bridge between the Moderate and Democratic Socialist wings of the party, so she can choose which way to go now when she steps off the bridge. She’ll achieve more by thinking she can put some of her policies into practice as a Secretary of a department post election. Should Biden win and should the Trumpists not forge an election win with the help of bad actors from outside the US.
At this stage, there’s no particular need for Warren to endorse anybody. Biden has got all the mileage he needs re endorsements from the moderates earlier in the week, so I’m not sure that adding Warren’s to that would make much difference to him at this stage. Warren may well be in the same position now as Obama – better to stay above the fray for now, and endorse the winner when it’s clearer, or act as some sort of mediator down the track if the contest gets close. Given that she has got some support in both the Sanders and Biden camps, she’s probably better keeping her powder dry for the moment.
RI
“There will be down-ticket consequences as well…perhaps strong enough to swing the Senate and consolidate the House for Democrats too.”
Yes, Sanders would have been a drag on the Dem ticket, especially among suburban/exurban voters. His socialist manifesto doesn’t really resonate in these kind of swing districts.
Take this with a grain of salt, as second choice polling is difficult and unreliable but those thinking that Warren’s voters would all cleanly flow to Sanders might be in for a shock.
Kiss of death to your argument comrade Clem. Bro Greentaur agrees with you …
That makes sense. I was a big fan of Warren too, but who was going to vote for her after it became apparent she wasn’t going to win? Any supporters who also really liked Sanders would have already switched to him.
“ I think it could be Klob as a VP pick. She won Minnesota and handed it to Biden, if she can translate that popularity to other Mid-Western states it would help a lot.”
That might be right. If Biden wins with her on his ticket the Dems wont lose her senate seat as the current Minnesota Governor is a DFL (Democrat). Minnesota is one state that fills casual vacancies on the nomination of the state Governor.
This is probably what rules out the person who I think is the best VP Candidate – regardless of who wins the nomination – Senator Sherrod Brown. Ohio’s governor is a Republican. This was the reason why Clinton picked Kaine over Brown in 2016, which was a shame because Brown would have campaigned 24/7 in the rust belt, which Kaine did (but Kaine was completely ineffectual)and likely would have held those swing states (he might have even got Hillary across the line in Ohio as well).
Brown is also strongly progressive, so would be a good foil for moderate Biden.
If Bernie wins the nomination Stacey Adams is the obvious pick. She’ll bring out the African American vote in a way that Bernie hasn’t been able to thus far.
Apropos of nothing but when I was supporting Harris last year, my “fantasy” ticket was Harris/Brown.
Joe Biden only enjoys considerable popularly among the Democratic base, particularly the older age brackets. Because he was Vice President during the Obama administration.
Also, there are parallels between both Joe Biden and Anthony Albanese. In particular both are inclined (Albanese in recent years), to take stances on issues that hit the ‘sweet spot’ in the electorate. Since Australia has a compulsory preferential voting system with the Greens preferncing heavily to Labor. Labor could win the next election, especially if Jim Chalmers became deputy leader.
However in America they don’t have that electoral system. Not to mention a significant percentage of those who voted for Trump on 2016, are anti establishment and will vote for Trump if Biden becomes the nominee. Because they want the whole system blow. A friend of mine who loves in Texas agrees with me fully.