Click here for full display of results.
Summary
Labor’s Joel Bowden finished the evening with a lead of 170 votes (2.6%) over Steven Klose of the Territory Alliance on the preference count, with probably only a few dozen votes outstanding. The Country Liberal Party humiliatingly finished in fourth place, with the Greens doing well to maintain their 17% share of the vote despite the expansion of the field from three candidates to seven. Together with the 21.4% slump in the Labor primary vote, the result is another illustration of the pronounced appetite voters have developed for minor parties when given a sufficient range of options. Another candidate, Braedon Earley, polled 10.4% on an anti-fracking platform, presumably benefiting from a considerable constituency hostile to both fracking and the Greens.
Labor was clearly buoyed by the strength of its candidate, a former Richmond AFL player and general secretary of Unions NT. While the Greens’ preference recommendation may have cut as much as 4% from the Labor margin, this was negated by the CLP’s equally curious decision to put Labor second, reflected in a near 50-50 split of their preferences (going off scrutineering figures obtained by Antony Green). A more normal CLP preference split would almost certainly have delivered the seat to the Territory Alliance — a result that perhaps scared the CLP more than a Labor win, potentially threatening their status as the main conservative party.
The result makes it very hard to determine how the August election might look. For all the strength of the Territory Alliance’s performance, its challenge in actually winning seats remains formidable — though perhaps not insurmountable if their near-success at the by-election inspires a bandwagon effect. The other notably strong performer, the Greens, do not enjoy the localised critical mass of support needed to win seats. However, it is clear both that voters are willing to turn away from the government, and that a CLP that can boast only two members of parliament is not seen as a credible alternative. The likeliest possibilities are either a bare Labor majority or a hung parliament with the Territory Alliance and independents as kingmakers or perhaps even coalition partners.
Live commentary
8.14pm. Eighty postal votes have been added — a bit more than Antony figured — on both the primary and two-party vote, breaking 47-33 to Labor.
8.11pm. My probability estimate assumes 304 outstanding votes, which is somewhat arbitrary. To the extent that that’s an overstatement, the remaining 1.9% probability of a Labor defeat disappears.
8.05pm. Rapid Creek EVC now in on two-party preferred, paring back my projection of Labor’s winning margin to 2.0%. They have a raw lead of 156 votes, with only 50 votes outstanding plus whatever the Darwin area mobile team will amount to, which probably isn’t much (and which I don’t expect will be favourable to conservatives).
7.57pm. Possible wild card: anti-fracking independent Braedon Earley’s preferences flowing heavily to the Greens, putting them ahead of the Territory Alliance, and after that who knows. But a long shot on both counts.
7.53pm. On Twitter, Antony relates there will only be about 50 postals, and a Northern Territory News reports Labor is about to claim victory.
7.47pm. Antony Green and I are of one mind: “I have three different methods for predicting the Johnston by-election result, and all three are predicting Labor to win with 52.6% after preferences.”
7.46pm. Rapid Creek EVC primary vote in, resulting in little change to the overall picture.
7.39pm. Moil booth has reported on two-party, behaving as my model expected to, leaving the Labor winning margin all but unchanged on 2.3%. Labor win probability now up to 98%, with the Rapid Creek EVC the only substantial unreported booth. However, this is a new booth that I’ve dealt with by dividing the results of the Casuarina EVC between the two, and it can’t be ruled out that its behaviour won’t quite be the same.
7.25pm. Millner two-party result in, with a slightly weaker preference flow from elsewhere bringing the projected Labor margin back from 3.0% to 2.4%. But because there are fewer votes outstanding now, this hasn’t changed my model’s estimation of a Labor win probability around 95%.
7.19pm. Moil booth added on the primary vote, and while it has the biggest primary vote swing against Labor so far, it hasn’t fundamentally changed the situation, projecting a 3.0% Labor winning margin. But for what it’s worth, the Labor win probability is back inside 95%.
7.00pm. The Casuarina pre-poll booth is in, on primary and two-party, and it’s firming up as a Labor-versus-Territory Alliance contest with the CLP still in fourth place. These numbers haven’t rocked my preference projection too hard, which is to say that Labor looks to be retaining a solid flow of Greens preferences despite the how-to-vote card. My model says Labor are very likely to win, with a projected 3.5% winning margin, but I’d still be conservative about interpreting it.
6.55pm. With that said, the Greens are doing well — their vote is up despite the fact they were the only minor party option in the field in 2016, compared with five this time, and they’re actually ahead of the CLP. So that slump in the Labor primary vote could partly be votes going to the Greens and coming back to them on preferences.
6.52pm. The Millner booth is now in — Territory Alliance continues to outpoll the CLP, while Labor’s primary vote has slumped by 20.7%. My projections remain rosy for Labor, but that assumes they will get 56% of preferences which I’m pretty sure won’t happen, because that’s calculated off a Darwin EVC result that had the CLP on 7.6%, whereas the Millner result is twice as much. So treat it with a grain of salt until we get the Millner two-party count.
6.49pm. Sorry, I had that the wrong way around — it’s Labor leading 40-26. And I think by results display is working now, and while it’s almost giving it to Labor, obviously you would want more numbers. Part of the equation here is that Labor got 16 minor party and independent preferences and the Territory Alliance got 11, which needless to say isn’t much to go on.
6.40pm. The two-party count for Darwin ECV bodes well for the Territory Alliance, who lead 40-26 — but not for my results display, which has tanked under the pressure of having the parties other than I expected them to be. Will see if I can fix.
6.28pm. The NTEC’s results are on display now here, and we have 66 votes from the Darwin pre-poll centre. Obviously that’s not much to go on, but it’s interesting that the Territory Alliance has 15 votes to the CLP’s five. So far so good for my own results display — I’m projecting a 36.6% primary vote for Labor, which suggests they’re in trouble in less preferences behave in an unanticipated fashion.
6.20pm. Hopefully the plan is for the NTEC results display to come to life when there is actually a result to report. I will try to just swap Territory Alliance for CLP in my two-party calculations, so the latter’s historic results are used to calculate the swing for the former, but I don’t know how smoothly that’s going to run. That’s assuming that the NTEC is planning on publishing anything …
6.16pm. Still no sign of any results facility on the NTEC site, and no media feed in operation. I asked Antony Green on Twitter where he would be getting his results from, and his answer was “I don’t know yet”.
6pm. And they’re off. Antony Green relates on Twitter that the Northern Territory Electoral Commission have surprisingly decided to make their indicative count between Labor and the Territory Alliance, which means I won’t be able to calculate two-party swings. There’s also no sign of any results display on their website.
Preview
Today is the day of the Northern Territory’s Johnston by-election, which also happens to the first election of any kind in Australia above local government level since the federal election last May. Labor holds the northern Darwin seat by a margin of 14.7%, but the seat is less secure for them than this makes it appear owing to the scale of the Labor landslide in 2016 and the importance of local and candidate factors in the territory’s boutique electorates, which have only around 5000 voters.
A very substantial swing against Labor can be anticipated due to the departure of sitting member of Ken Vowles and his estrangement from the party, together with the general difficulties that have beset Michael Gunner’s Labor government since it came to power in 2016. There is also the fact that the Greens are instructing voters to put Labor last in protest over the government’s lifting of a moratorium on gas fracking exploration, although the effect of this is limited by a prohibition on disseminating how-to-vote cards near polling places.
All of this bodes well for the opposition Country Liberal Party, although they face opposition for the conservative vote from Territory Alliance, a new party founded by former CLP Chief Minister and now independent MP Terry Mills which is making its electoral debut. For what’s it’s worth, the latter’s candidate is the $1.70 favourite at Sportsbet, which is offering $1.90 for Labor and $2.75 for the CLP.
Live coverage will follow here upon the closure of polling at 6pm, encompassing analysis on this post and a detailed display of results that is ready to go here. Naturally though, in an electorate this small there are only so many results to follow – two election day polling booths plus two pre-poll booths, with the latter accounting for an ever increasing share of the action.
So assuming Mills group wins the seat, and Jeff Collins joins the Mills Group, does that make Mills the official Opposition? Anybody know the answer?
NT politics makes a Council election look dignified.
Fracking is one of the most harmful forms of fossil fuel extraction. Once again Labor is going to water on climate change. But if this election is lost, we can blame the Greens. Solves everything.
Gunner Labor is apparently doing its best to make Morrison LNP look competent.
https://7news.com.au/politics/darwin-by-election-could-hurt-gunner-libs-c-722055
The NT is close to being a failed state.
A significant number of the population is dual NT/Australian citizens. This segment is just passing through with little or no long term social, or political commitment to the NT.
There is no particular reason for Indigenous voters to show any political loyalty to more than a strictly limited number of dedicated whitefellas – although on the whole Labor is less likely to trash Indigenous values and to support Indigenous aspirations than the Sons and Daughters of Giles and their systematically destructive companions in the Federal Coalition. (Hundreds of millions of dollars cut from Indigenous programs, the Cashless Card, ruthless Robocopping of Indigenous people are just the start.)
The whitefellas themselves are socially fractured between extreme right wingers (KKK antecedents, anyone?) and extreme Lefties (preference the KKK heartland parties against Labor).
The NT economy is essentially some tourism, Darwin public servants and assorted hanger on service providers, the defence spend, some episodic large projects, what is known colloquially as the Indigenous industry, plus a limited number of extractive industries. Add a few cows and you are home and housed.
In lieu of social cohesion as a driver of political cohesion, political parties tend to be politically unstable grab bags of personal alliances. Recent governments are notorious for their fragility and for the agility of opportunists in taking personal advantage of the fragility. Add grog to ego and you have a standing recipe for trouble.
For many years NT governments have been running large deficits. (Those who think that deficits are the way to go might just have a closer look at what is happening to the NT Budget.) Add unfunded large liabilities in terms of generations of public sector Super, add a parlous revenue base, and you are close to looking at a failed state.
One of the large reasons for the unpopularity of the Gunner Government is that it has tried to do something real about the debt and deficit problem. Since a very large proportion of the voting public is on the public tit, political pain is inevitable.
If you think the Inner Urbs Down South Greens are off the planet, you ain’t seen nothing until you have a close look at the looney NT Greens mob. They have managed to transfer all this economic, ethical and social complexity into a simple, populist, fake binary. Fracking/Not fracking.
On this basis they have preferenced Labor last.
In doing so they have preferenced positively a gang of politicians some of whom would fit right in with extreme right wing racism and the sort of religious fundamentalists who think of LGBTIQ as being target initials.
Any idea that this mob of venal opportunists would NOT frack more generally and more freely than NT Labor is a classic Greens Unthink.
Lars Von Trier @ #1 Saturday, February 29th, 2020 – 7:20 am
The simple answer is that as long as the Territory Alliance has 3 MPs then it becomes the largest non-Government party and is recognised as the Opposition. Mills would then become opposition leader.
Speaker Purick is quoted saying as much in the below article.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-27/new-party-hopes-to-seize-nt-opposition-status/12002754/
Speaker Kezia Purick said if Territory Alliance ended up with two seats, it would be up to Parliament to decide which party should hold Opposition status.
But if Territory Alliance secured three seats, it would become the new Opposition.
“Three members of one party beats two members of another party — that’s a given, that will just happen,” Ms Purick said.
“[It’s] nothing to do with the Speaker, nothing to do with the Legislative Assembly, nothing to do with the Government — it would just be a convention within Parliament.”
If you want more details, Speaker Purick’s paper on the matter gives a good background on the matter.
https://blogs.crikey.com.au/northern/2019/07/12/the-role-of-a-speaker-in-determining-the-opposition-kezia-purick/
Perhaps we should have a poll on how soon after 6pm this election will be called?
Put me down for 6:15!
Boerwar @ #4 Saturday, February 29th, 2020 – 11:14 am
I can’t help wondering what this is supposed to mean?
One of the large reasons for the unpopularity of the Gunner Government is that it has tried to do something real about the debt and deficit problem. Since a very large proportion of the voting public is on the public tit, political pain is inevitable.
Ahh No. Gunner is unpopular because he managed to be more incompetent than Giles which many of us of the right who voted for the ALP last election thought was just plain impossible but Gunner has managed it with ease. The public service in the NT is not asking for much it just wants a reasonably clear direction and not have there houses broken into, both got worse nearly over night when the ALP got in. I will give him some leeway over crime as the Don Dale fiasco made every magistrate scared shitless to do there jobs.
Boerwar @ #4 Saturday, February 29th, 2020 – 11:14 am
A significant number of the population is dual NT/Australian citizens. This segment is just passing through with little or no long term social, or political commitment to the NT.
I can’t help wondering what this is supposed to mean?
It means after coming up from down south to work in the NT we piss off back when we retire and in the intervening years don’t give a rats whats going on in the NT. Wrong but that is what he means.
Please, “their houses” and “their jobs”.
Why hasn’t the NT been leased out yet, say 99 years to either America, Singapore or Taiwan …
SD
‘Ahh No. Gunner is unpopular because he managed to be more incompetent than Giles which many of us of the right who voted for the ALP last election thought was just plain impossible but Gunner has managed it with ease. The public service in the NT is not asking for much it just wants a reasonably clear direction and not have there houses broken into, both got worse nearly over night when the ALP got in.’
Ah. Yes.
1. The cuts are real. And since the cuts HAD to impact the public service and their client bases, no one liked it. After all, it is always being mostly funded from Down South so let’s keep spending as if there is no tomorrow. No brainer.
2. The second issue, Law and Order, was set up to be infinitely worse when Abbott/Giles cut hundreds of millions from Indigenous programs and forced many remote Indigenous people from Homeland Centres into the main towns along the spine. The law and order impact was predicted and it is happening.
3. It is obvious to anyone who wants to look that a large proportion of the Indigenous population of the NT regards the police as a colonial force of occupation. There is no dishonour in being jailed and no compunction about breaking somebody else’s laws. Jailing more people (three strikes and you’re jailed – for a packet of biscuits) made absolutely no difference to crime rates in the NT. The law and order causes are deep-seated, are systemic, and are largely independent of the number of people who are in jail at any one time.
4. As for a ‘reasonably clear direction’, what did you have in mind that is different? More of Giles chaos? More of the swingeing cuts of the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison years? More bastardization by robocop? More of telling Indigenous people that the Call from the Heart is bullshit? What, exactly?
Steelydan @ #9 Saturday, February 29th, 2020 – 1:29 pm
With the smallest workforce in Australia, the NT wouldn’t exist if it couldn’t rely on labour from other states.
Boerwar
1. My point is the Public service will vote anything but ALP and it has nothing to do with cuts to the Public service they do not believe cuts will be any less or spending increased under the CLP. The public service desperately wants to vote ALP. Your just wrong on this one.
2. Law and Order. Just look at the sentencing before and after Don Dale it is there in black and white. It only about 100 odd youths in Alice, Katherine, Tennant Creek , and Darwin that are causing the bulk of all break ins, look what happens when after there 50th break in 20 odd go into detention the drop in unlawful entries and criminal damage is staggering. No amount of skate board parks are going to change they’re there their behavior I am not sure if they are a lost cause but programs have never worked and if they did show me which one. Programs and real listening have failed for the last quarter of a century and will fail for the next 25 years. I know you will hate this one but they only program that has worked is the basics card, find one aboriginal woman with children who remembers the old days wants to go back to hubby having the money, have a yarn to Jenny Macklin if you don’t believe me.
3. “It is obvious to anyone who wants to look that a large proportion of the Indigenous population of the NT regards the police as a colonial force of occupation. There is no dishonour in being jailed and no compunction about breaking somebody else’s laws. Jailing more people (three strikes and you’re jailed – for a packet of biscuits) made absolutely no difference to crime rates in the NT. The law and order causes are deep-seated, are systemic, and are largely independent of the number of people who are in jail at any one time”
Now this is the full loon way of thinking “colonial force of occupation” bloody hell what planet do you come from. Ask the average family in Kintore, Ali Carung, Utopia, any community you want how many times they have had to call the colonial force each year to help with the the family being bashed up, to stop grog coming into the community, to report property being stolen. Tennant Creek has 60 odd colonial forces for only 3000 people and the aboriginal community is screaming for more colonial forces.
4. No, just a bit of good governance finally for the NT.
John NOBELsays:
Saturday, February 29, 2020 at 1:53 pm
Why hasn’t the NT been leased out yet, say 99 years to either America, Singapore or Taiwan …
We chose China but I would prefer Singapore, very little crime. It is because Singapore has incredibly lenient sentencing laws with lots and lots of wonderful intervention programs that is their secret 🙂 Ahhh Singapore proof that strong law enforcement always fails. 🙂 But I suppose Singapore has their own issues with dreadful social problems, dirty city, unemployment etc etc. Failed state that one.
Steelydan @ #9 Saturday, February 29th, 2020 – 1:29 pm
It means after coming up from down south to work in the NT we piss off back when we retire and in the intervening years don’t give a rats whats going on in the NT. Wrong but that is what he means.
With the smallest workforce in Australia, the NT wouldn’t exist if it couldn’t rely on labour from other states.
Absolutely true but it does not mean as Boerwar meant that while here these people do not care about the community or what happens in the NT. Many would stay but the once their children get to school age they have a huge decision to make, you have to go all in or head back, by then they know how deep the issues are and if it is really worth it. That is where a competent government would come in handy get some confidence in a future for the NT
S Dan
Why you are wrong on the PS:
https://www.themandarin.com.au/107274-nt-to-cut-10-of-public-service-executives/
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-12/economy-public-service-freeze-manison-jobs-northern-territory/10893580
Why you are wrong on law and order:
In terms of your analysis of when police are called in and why they are otherwise seen as a colonial force of occupation, I suggest you read ‘Burmese Days’ by George Orwell. In particular, go to the elephant shooting episode. You might also be worth your while to have a good hard think about why being policed and/or jailed is a normal living experience for Indigenous people. Further, why it evokes no sense of shame.
The impacts of Just Passing Through are well-recognized and well-known.
In short, it obviously contributes to the lack of social and political cohesion and commitment – apart from which it is currently giving the Darwin housing market curry.
Unless you are in denial.
Boerwar
I repeat the public service would love to vote ALP (Just like our other territory) but they cant even though they know there will be even more cuts under the CLP. That is how bad this mob is.
You came, you saw, you failed, you left the NT. As many of you dual NT/Australian lefties do.
The Kingswood Fireman is going to rat and join at anti-Labor party?
Eric Roozendaal was right about him all along
Can anyone in the know explain to me what the go is with Territory Alliance?
Mills as CLP leader seemed to be…not fundamentally unhinged for a CLP leader, to my general surprise. Then he hooked up with a bunch of hard right types who seem like the sort of people who would make a play for the One Nation vote. Then…Jeff Collins? This is one minor party that makes no sense to me whatsoever.
sd
Uh huh. You finally got to personal insults. You lose.
Still, with the help of the looney Territory Greens preferencing trying to give a leg up to your the far right shower of wannabes you might still win tonight!
Joel Bowden is a terrific candidate. Johnston voters won’t miss Ken Vowles, not sure they ever saw him anyway.
Talk of massive swings could be overheated.
Oakeshott Country says:
Saturday, February 29, 2020 at 5:23 pm
The Kingswood Fireman is going to rat and join at anti-Labor party?
Eric Roozendaal was right about him all along
___________________________-
True, what a story arc!
“Johnston voters won’t miss Ken Vowles, not sure they ever saw him anyway.”
Candidates were pretty irrelevant at the last election in NT because of the swing. Labor took Katherine on a 22.7% swing. Maybe the Labor candidate was effective there, I’m not sure, but I doubt it was her candidacy alone that produced the swing.
I’m actually involved in some work at the moment involving a catastrophic accident at some event held in Alice Springs called Red Nats which is a hoon event similar to Summer Nats.
For reasons which are hard to understand the Northern Territory attorney general is exercising his legal power to intervene to argue that the victims of this catastrophe are only entitled to modest statutory compensation instead of having a right to sue the organisers who are backed by national and international insurance.
Quiet weird
Shellbell, that is weird. and tragic by the sound of it.
OC
And hints about who the Kingswood fireman is? Someone behind the Claremont Meadows branch stack?
Boerwar,
SD is right you are Labor apologist and your economic analysis is wrong. Labor has put up a smokescreen of trying to force PS cuts but at the same time spending like crazy. It’s difficult for them I know, the PS is their natural constituency but they have completely failed as a government to reign in costs. This much is absolutely clear to everyone who lives here.
As for Terry Mills, the reason why the alliance is an eclectic mix is that people who get to know him realise he is a decent bloke with good ideas and get on board. His Territory alliance has the radical idea that community consultation might be the way forward on the problems that bedevil is here in the north. He must have a good chance given no territorian with half a brain can, in good conscience vote either CLP or Labor.
shellbell @ #26 Saturday, February 29th, 2020 – 6:04 pm
Hmm. Follow the money – which in this case means the event organizers – would be my guess.
1995: Jeff Collins, a firie and now ex-ALP member for Fong Lim, was the secretary of South Kingswood Branch which Cathy O’Toole and her boy friend Peter Jones (type his name and Tripodi or “no land tax” into google to get an idea of their connections) tried to stack. At one meeting I attended they signed up 36 Filipino postal workers (Jones’ union) at the next Jeff signed up 22 Irish navvies he had found in a bar.
We were fast approaching being the state’s biggest branch until Roozendaal intervened and told O’Toole and Jones to start their own branch Claremont Meadows. CM probably never had any living members but enabled O’Toole to beat Jeff for pre-selection for Lindsay in 1998. O’Toole was one of the few people who are truly unelectable and Lindsay stayed with the coalition.
All three have now been expelled.
Andrew Earlwood was a good friend of Jones and O’Toole, to the degree that he got O’Toole to succeed him as Gough’ private secretary.
Jones had a later colourful career. He was a spear carrier for Tripodi during their attempt to take over the Prairewood Calabrian Club but they fell out over the question of his earner. He later came within 4000 votes of parking his arse on the NSW red leather as a member for the No Land Tax Party
People on PB wonder why Labor is in opposition in NSW
‘shellbell says:
Saturday, February 29, 2020 at 6:04 pm
I’m actually involved in some work at the moment involving a catastrophic accident at some event held in Alice Springs called Red Nats which is a hoon event similar to Summer Nats.
For reasons which are hard to understand the Northern Territory attorney general is exercising his legal power to intervene to argue that the victims of this catastrophe are only entitled to modest statutory compensation instead of having a right to sue the organisers who are backed by national and international insurance.
Quiet weird’
I recall the news footage of that incident. Horrific.
Oakeshott Country @ #31 Saturday, February 29th, 2020 – 6:47 pm
No, we really don’t 🙁
Howzat
Are we going back to the sense of sure-footed security and predictability that obtained under the Giles governments?
Classic. And SD has the gall to mumble about ‘governance’!
My advice would be to try and keep your lot out of the pub.
OC
Peter Jones and Cathy O’Toole, especially the former!
I was working at the Werrington campus of what was then USW (now WSU) right near Claremont Meadows. I was very unimpressed with the shenanigans, and was glad that my seat was Macquarie, as there was no way I would have handed out for Cathy O’Toole.
And Peter Jones really has become a weirdo, of the right-wing persuasion I think, although it is hard to tell.
I am pretty sure he was behind the “no land tax” party a few years ago who hired casuals, telling them they would be paid an hourly rate for handing out, assuming that he would get money for his party for getting the correct percentage of votes. no one was ever paid I believe.
So was Cathy one of the numerous Catholic Blue Mountains branch of the O’Toole’s, or was she one of the Protestant O’Toole’s from the the Penrith hinterland. they were all related, but a mixed marriage somewhere split them up.
A colleague of mine is one of the latter, and we share memories on Facebook about the guy who sold pens for Cherrywood village for so many years, first High St, and then in the Penrith Plaza. I am sure I remember him from at least the mid 1970s.
The NTEC will be conducting a two-candidate count between Labor and the Territory Alliance. They’d better be right about the latter coming second, but it seems a strange decision to me.
Also OC, I am now in the city after changing jobs, and have been for 20 yrs.
My local member asked our branch if the local population had forgiven us for Obeid. Our answer was a spontaneous and resounding NO!
I am also very conscious that you and LVT suffered a lot at the hands of these (cuckoo?) buffoons.
But bloody hell in South Sydney we are paying a high price for the Coalition Government elected in 2011 (currently the Berejiklian government).
All social and support services have been put out to private tender, and some of our established support services had just lost funding and shut up shop. I live on the fringes of the Waterloo estate, and the withdrawal of services there has had horrific social implications.
A maverick TCP count…..
Count off to an interesting start at the get go.
Yes Peter Jones was the No Land Tax buffoon who diddled numerous backpackers.
Don’t know O’Fools background except her mum was a path tech at Concord Hospital who had a habit of disrupting branch meetings
Darwin EVC result in. So far so good for my results display, but we’ll see how it goes with two-party numbers.
https://www.pollbludger.net/by-elections/nt2020by1/Johnston-Results.htm
Sorry late to this, are you assuming historical pref flows or as party directed?
Looking at the 22% Green in Casuarina
I wonder what an ALP/Green 2cp would look like? Earley and TA have Greens above ALP (CLP are the odd one out), so if they get ahead of TA they’ll have a chance.
Is this the first time anywhere that a Labor candidate has been #2 on a Liberal HTV card? That can’t happen too often.
I’m calculating a “swing” in the preference flow by comparing that with the booths that have already reported with how they did historically, and assuming that will play out across booths that have so far only reported the primary vote. So in Casuarina and Darwin EVCs, Labor are getting 56% preferences compared with over 80% last time (a minus 24.5% “swing”) when the only minor party candidate was the Greens. I’m assuming that Labor will also get 24.5% less out of the preferences in Millner than they did last time.
96.2% is an heroic prediction for ALP win from 31.9% primary
But you may think Labor should do slightly better than that in Millner, since more of the minor party and independent vote there is from the Greens than was the case in Casuarina EVC (though not Darwin EVC).
But the Territory Alliance is only on 23.1%, and so far it appears preferences are splitting about evenly. Don’t forget that the Greens are outpolling the CLP.
Ok, the new model probably needs a bigger sample and less cluttered field to make sense
How likely is this new breakaway TA group to cause issues for federal CLP?
Looks like fireman Jeff is screwed. No Territory Alliance – and hope for a personal vote (which is always high in the NT) as an independent be the best hope for Jeff to continue.
Greens voters preferences splitting 50-50.
Shame job.