Essential Research: carbon, coal and coronavirus

A quick look at this week’s Essential Research report, and a deeper one at last week’s ANU survey on the impact of the bushfires.

The latest fortnightly poll from Essential Research finds 75% support for a net zero carbon pollution target by 2050, with only 25% opposed; 32% wishing to see coal-fired power plants phased out as soon as possible and another 47% wanting an end to subsidies and government support, compared with 21% wanting government support for both existing and new plants; and 80% support for the government preventing people entering the country from China due to coronavirus, with only 6% opposed. There are further questions and breakdowns in the report, but not a lot to get excited about on the whole – I can only beseech the pollster to bite the bullet and get back in the voting intention game.

To add more meat to this post, I will instead probe deeper into the report on the political impact of the bushfires published last week by the Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods. This was based on a regular panel survey conducted by the centre on a roughly quarterly basis, largely dealing with questions such as satisfaction with governments, public institutions and life in general. Since most of the respondents had also completed previous surveys, the report is able to explore changes in voting intention and attitudes over time. On this occasion, the survey was supplemented by questions on respondents’ exposure to the bushfires.

The study found a slump in electoral support for the Coalition, from 42.6% in the October survey to 37.2%, with Labor up from 33.7% to 35.8%, the Greens up from 14.4% to 14.7% (which is obviously too high at both ends) and others up from 9.3% to 11.2% (after excluding non-respondents, of which there were 5.1% in October and 6.6% in January). However, it did not find evidence that the fall in Coalition support was particularly pronounced among those who had been exposed to the bushfires.

Some of the factors that did associate with defection from the Coalition suggest an intensification of trends evident at the election, with university-educated voters more likely to have abandoned the Coalition and voters aged 75 and over less likely to have done so. However, the Coalition had a particular drop in support outside capital cities, though not in a way that suggested exposure to the fires was the reason. Out of the sample of 618 Coalition defectors, 43.9% supported Labor, 14.3% the Greens and 24.7% others, with the remainder uncommitted.

Consistent with the findings of the Ipsos Issues Monitor survey in January, the number of respondents rating environmental issues as the first or second most important facing the country rose from 41.5% in the October survey to 49.7%. For whatever reason, there was a significant effect here for indirect exposure to the bushfire (having friends or family whose properties were damaged or threatened, having travel plans affected, or exposure to smoke or anxiety), but not for direct exposure. However, as the report notes, what the survey registered as concern for environmental issues extended to blaming “the greenies” for the extent of the fires.

Support for new coal mines was down from 45.3% in the June survey to 37.0%, with the fall particularly pronounced among Coalition voters, down from 71.8% to 57.5%. However, those directly exposed to the bushfires who had expressed support for coal mines in June were relatively resistant to this trend.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,024 comments on “Essential Research: carbon, coal and coronavirus”

Comments Page 18 of 21
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  1. Poor Josh’s surplus is now on very thin ice, with the economy tanking and monetary policy almost spent. When Josh boasted about a surplus, there were a number of commentators who suggested that he should’ve been more cautious as one never knows what’s around the corner. He might now be forced to consider the dreaded “S” word. What a quandary the Tories now find themselves in!

  3. The advice I have received from my medical relatives is use the public system and don’t tell them you have private cover until they decide what you need.

    The last thing you want is to be shunted of to a private hospital for diagnosis. They lack the resources and equipment.


  4. Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 4:04 pm

    How do people feel about smokers clogging up the public system with their smoking related conditions ..?

    Cigs should be taxed to cover the cost. It would be interesting to know if they are their yet.

  5. With the ever declining rates of smokers in society I’m sure we can be generous and treat these people like humans. Many of them are probably very nice people.

  6. You can argue semantics but if you are a patient waiting for a colonoscopy and it turns out that you have cancer then you are waiting for your cancer surgery.

    Seriously? Semantics?
    This is exactly what you said (and all you said) on cancer…

    Having major colorectal surgery for bowel cancer as soon as diagnosed by one of Australia’s leading surgeons and not having to wait on a waiting list.

    You were 100% incorrect in implying public patients have to wait for cancer surgery once diagnosed. You then claimed I was wrong in countering that, when in fact I was 100% correct. There is a difference between deception and truth and it aint semantics. You knew exactly what you were doing – making false and misleading statements to help your argument.

  7. doyley says:
    Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 4:25 pm
    ABS figures for capital expenditure in the December quarter show expenditure collapsed by 2.8% over the quarter. Combined with moribund retail sales and a further contraction in construction in the quarter bode on the down side for GDP figures next week.

    Given the full impact of the bushfires and virus will not impact until the March quarter the economy is very sick indeed.

    Morrison and Josh are now talking about looking at some “ modest” stimulus that is still being discussed within Treasury. No plans, no direction just ongoing discussion. With March almost upon us any actual “ action” is still a long long way from being implemented.

    Sick GDP for December. Sicker GDP for March and yet the government is stalled in discussion with treasury.

    Will the government wait for the May budget or actually do something now ?

    The economy is almost at the stage of completely getting away from the government and once it does sink it will be very hard to turn around especially if the government relies on some smooth sounding quick fix marketing announcements.

    December was weak. March will be worse. By the June quarter the economy is likely to be in a severe decline as the virus-related effects on both supply and demand register in the labour market, business sales, profits, inventories and investment.

    Given the very poor level of household savings in Australia, any tightening in the labour market or in hours worked will immediately show up in household consumption. That is, the economy is highly vulnerable to the kind of shocks the virus can deliver. This will apply even if the local incidence of illness is low. If the virus becomes established in the community the economic consequences will be dire indeed.

  8. a r @ #850 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 4:40 pm

    Bellwether @ #897 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 3:29 pm

    You could argue that the willingness of Australians to see smokers, drinkers, victims of alcohol-induced and methamphetamine violence along with our more unfortunate citizens living on the streets or with mental-health issues, to see them treated in our public system free-of-charge is really one of the major tenets of the much-maligned democratic socialism.

    Doesn’t democratic socialism say that those people should receive other basic necessities (such as housing) in addition to public healthcare, and thus suggest that they should not be living on the street?

    Let’s get real though, I can’t imagine there’s a country in this world that has no homeless.

  9. Rev Dr Stephanie Dowrick@stephaniedowric
    · 1h

    This is contemptible. The party that claims it stands for “religious freedoms” presents us with a fool of a Treasurer @JoshFrydenberg who thinks it’s “hilarious” to mock Hinduism, a religion far older than his own, about which he knows precisely nothing.

  10. Pee Bee,

    C@t:’I always thought the name Olivia Neutron Bomb was cute. ‘

    I do believe that her grandfather, physicist Max Bon, won a noble prize for research into quantum mechanics.

    Yes, Max Born, a very good physicist. He has an institute named after him: https://mbi-berlin.de/homepage

  14. I have been told that a Wellness Budget would include a look at domestic violence. After all the publicity about DV recently, haven’t his advisers warned him? People who follow the Hindu religion are not happy with him, either.

  18. Christopher Joye on coronavirus:

    What is interesting is the diversity of experiences. In Japan there have been 170 cases, but only one fatality, with no signs yet of an acceleration. Singapore has had 91 cases and no deaths, with recent stability in infections. Hong Kong has had 85 cases and two deaths with no likewise evidence of contagion. Fascinatingly, Taiwan, notwithstanding its close proximity and ties to China, has also avoided any real problems with total infections of 31 persons and one death.

    In contrast, we have seen explosive growth in infections in South Korea (1,146), Italy (322) and, presumably, Iran (95?), which might be driven by idiosyncratic factors that are basically bad luck. (The Iranian data is clearly bogus.)

    South Korea and Italy are crucial because unlike the Chinese experience, we can in theory trust their data evolution alongside that which is published by other relatively open states like Singapore, Japan and Hong Kong.

    About half the 1,146 cases in South Korea have been attributed to a secretive religious cult, which conducts huddled private prayers that increase the probability of transmission—much like the prayer practices in Iran where individuals also greet each other with kisses (they are now switching to tapping feet)—and resists public identification of its members.

    In Italy it is notably also common for folks to greet one another with kisses on the cheeks that could boost infection rates.

    https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/trading-coronavirus

  19. General prediction

    The next week or two could decide the next US presidential election.

    Trump doesn’t seem to be getting the seriousness of the virus and if Americans start coming down with it in large numbers and the stock market continues to tank then Trump looks politically done.

  20. As a former senior manager in both the public and private systems- I wouldn’t go near the private health system with a barge pole. Private Healthcare may have been superior once, but is now ruthlessly run to make a profit- there is no budget or time for staff training, professional development, quality systems and audits … experienced staff are shed and replaced by 457s and juniors on minimum wages. With religious discrimination bills coming, people will be employed for their superstitious belief, not their skills or experience.
    The public system is not perfect, but there is some commitment to excellence, not just the provision of the cheapest care. There is a transparent system of accountability. In a major public hospital all the equipment and facilities are there in one place.

  22. Sportsrorts.

    Peter van Onselen@vanOnselenP
    ·
    3m
    People need to remember…this is still relevant because the government REFUSES to admit the scheme was wrong, the minister was NOT sacked bc of the grant allocations, there is MUCH more we deserve to know and evidence of further wrongdoing CONTINUES to mount. NO let up here…

  24. Morrison won’t need to recycle those “Be alert, not alarmed” fridge magnets.

    It’s now “BE ALARMED AND OBEY ALL MY EDICTS!”.

    LIVE
    CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK
    ‘A pandemic is well upon us’: Morrison triggers coronavirus response plan

    Morrison says global pandemic will happen as outbreaks ‘fundamentally change’

    The World Health Organisation is yet to declare a global pandemic, but Prime Minister Scott Morrison said Australia must get “well ahead”.

    6 minutes ago by Jenny Noyes and Matt Bungard (SMH headline)

    Of course this pronouncement has absolutely nothing to do with Morrison attempting to divert attention away from more revelations of his direct involvement in SportsRorts. PvO really got stuck into Morrison on Ch 10 news this afternoon, mentioning that Morrison uses the North Sydney swimming pool which received a $3 million grant meant for regional projects.

  25. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 2:55 pm

    beguiled again,
    I can’t believe you think that private insurance is preferable to single-payer, taxpayer-funded medicare systems.
    ———————————————————
    I mean, even in Australia where we have Medicare, we still have Private Health Insurance. The nation of Australia has not indicated a preference for Medicare For All.

    ———————————————————————
    I think we should look for recent polls that ask that question, excluding those by the IPA.

    What bothers me are comments like this:

    rednk says:
    Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 4:55 pm

    The advice I have received from my medical relatives is use the public system and don’t tell them you have private cover until they decide what you need.

    The last thing you want is to be shunted of to a private hospital for diagnosis. They lack the resources and equipment

    ———————————–

    That, and trying to work out, while lying flat on my back after a heart attack, who is the most competent and affordable cardiac surgeon. You do have the right to choose your surgeon after all.

  26. steve davis
    That article deserves a LOL in its title.

    Senator McGrath seems surprised that a company recruits for culture fit. He has either never held a job or been a employer. The same idiot waffles about the ABC losing viewers. The ABC like all media outlets are losing viewers and most media outlets have their HQ in inner city areas with the Herald Sun enjoying Yarra views next to the Arts Centre and NGV.

  27. The impact of coronavirus in the US will be inexplicably tied to braggadocio Dotard FIGJAM. Some random thoughts..

    – Dotard’s health care for the wealthy, the less well off can go without
    – variations on Medicare for All are the perfect segue to bash Dotard’s indolence on coronavirus
    – don’t you worry about that – it’s just like the flu. A Dotard rally is attended by some infected people, and a breakout of MAGA fans succumb to Covid-19
    – the Stockmarket rise ‘due to Dotard – just ask me’ reverses, and exposes more unregulated rorts, like borrowing money to pay dividends to investors, Ponzi style
    – then there is supply chain (85% of toys are made in China) breakdown, affecting the Consumer Confidence which drives the US economy

  28. steve davis

    If this poll wasn’t a push, I’ll eat my sunhat. The IPA and McGrath? so believable when they want the ABC sold off!

    Less than one third of the country believes the ABC “represents the views of ordinary Australians”, a survey by the Institute of Public Affairs suggests.

    The Liberal-aligned think tank says the result shows “public broadcasting has passed its use-by date”. The IPA is renewing calls for the $1.1 billion-a-year national broadcaster to be privatised.

    In the poll of 1016 people conducted by marketing research firm Dynata in early December – largely before the bushfire crisis – respondents were asked to agree or disagree with the statement: “The ABC does not represent the views of ordinary Australians.”

    Overall, more people sided with the ABC than not, with 32 per cent either somewhat or strongly disagreeing with the statement, compared with 30 per cent who either somewhat or strongly agreed.

  29. “ From a prosecutor’s perspective, “tendency evidence” can result in great utility, but it’s more often than not prejudicial to an accused, bearing in mind that the DPP can call on the vast resources of the state to assist in a prosecution; whereas, the former can’t, often represented by legal aid, where you’ve got to write almost a thesis to support additional expenditure.“

    I think your fears are overstated.

    It’s important to remember that when considering ‘prejudice’ the law is not concerned with the question of whether an accused is denied a sporting chance of an acquittal. Rather it is concerned with ‘unfair prejudice’, namely misuse by a jury on some irrational basis.

    In the last year back at the private bar I secured acquittals in two cases where I was up against tendency evidence – one case involving two complainants whose evidence was cross admissible as tendency evidence, and another case involving five complainants. In each case the ultimate question for the jury remained as it would have been were the allegations heard separately and without regard to the other complainants – namely the reliability (honesty and accuracy) of each complainant. Tendency evidence can in fact be a twin edged sword. Issues of concoction, contamination and mistake often arise and a skilled advocate can exploit them …

  30. Governments may order mass vaccinations of entire suburbs, cities or groups of people; sports stadia may be sequestered as quarantine sites; and police could be ordered to guard critical medical supplies under Australia’s pandemic health plans.

    Under worst-case scenarios being contemplated by state and federal governments, forecasts say a pandemic outbreak could last up to 10 months, and 40% of the country’s workforce could be sidelined by illness or caring for family members. Australia’s GDP could take a 10% hit.

    The pandemic plans have not yet been scaled up to their highest levels: Australia remains in containment mode and governments have consistently said that Australia is well-placed to deal with any outbreaks.

    “Pandemic influenza can cause significant disruptions to the way we live as it has the potential to result in high levels of illness and death,” the Victorian government has warned in its action plan for influenza pandemic.

    “The social distancing measures that may be required will have wide-ranging effects, with closure of schools and childcare services, and cancellation of public events. It is estimated that up to 40% of the workforce may withdraw from work at any one time due to illness, the need to care for family members or the fear of contracting the virus in the workplace or on public transport.

    “The impact of a pandemic depends on how sick the virus makes people (clinical severity), the ability of the virus to spread between people (transmissibility), the capacity of the health system, the effectiveness of interventions and the vulnerability of the population,” the New South Wales government’s human influenza pandemic plan says.

    “As humans will have little or no pre-existing immunity to a pandemic virus and influenza viruses can be transmitted among people without symptoms, prevention is not considered realistic.”

    But the NSW Health plan makes a number of fundamental assumptions about a pandemic outbreak in Australia:

    The disease is likely to originate overseas and be imported into Australia by infected travellers.

    Border screening is ineffective because carriers can be asymptomatic.

    Any pandemic outbreak will spread rapidly throughout the Australian community.

    The population groups at greater risk from seasonal influenza are the elderly, young, people with chronic diseases, and communities with high numbers of at-risk individuals such as Indigenous communities.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/27/australias-coronavirus-pandemic-plan-mass-vaccinations-and-stadium-quarantine

  31. In all the Yoga classes I have ever been to over the years no one has mentioned a religion except to say Merry Christmas or made any connection to Hinduism.

    Just saw a news story of a breast cancer survivor in Queensland waiting more than 8 years for a breast reconstruction. Great system.

  32. Channel 9 Melbourne = Docklands
    Channel 10 Melbourne = South Yarra
    Channel 7 Melbourne = Docklands
    Herald Sun = Southbank
    The Age = Docklands
    ABC Melbourne = Southbank

    All within 10k of Melbourne.

  33. The ABC is its own worst enemy.

    It could easily win back support but refuses to make the changes needed.

    QandA – when has there ever been a majority (including the Presenter) of Conservatives on a panel? Ever?

  35. Bucephalus @ #881 Thursday, February 27th, 2020 – 2:59 pm

    Just saw a news story of a breast cancer survivor in Queensland waiting more than 8 years for a breast reconstruction. Great system.

    The real story in that is that she’s been given 8, and probably many more years of life from having a mastectomy. Having a symmetrical set of hooters should be the least of her concerns. A breast reconstruction is cosmetic surgery plain and simple. It is not a matter of life or death.

  36. Bucephalus
    Don’t disagree when it comes to QandA but Australian conservatives unlike American conservatives tend to all sound the same with minimal diversity. QandA only needs two or four panel members with two spots taken up by politicians from opposing sides.

  38. First we watered our trees to keep them alive during the Drought. Then we huddled inside, bemasked, hiding from the toxic smoke. Our suitcases packed ready for The runner. Now we have prepared for self-immuration, pending C-19 jumping the rails.

    I blame Morrison.

  39. Bucephalus
    They are funded indirectly through government advertising or funded by grants for programing (Foxtel) they also claim to be in touch with average people despite all being based in the inner city.

  41. Big A Adrian

    I heard the Labour candidate in one of those seats around Liverpool won with about 85% of the vote
    __________________________________________________________

    Liverpool Walton, the former seat of 70s/80s firebrand Eric Heffer, 84.7% (down 1.0% on 2017)

    The 4 city seats and the 3 near-neighbours ranged from 72.3% to 84.7%

    In 2017 5 of the 7 topped 80%

    EDIT to add, former PM Harold Wilson represented one of the neighbour seats back in the day

  43. ‘Bucephalus says:
    Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 6:24 pm

    Boerwar – we were told that there wouldn’t be significant rain until April.’

    I am sure you sincerely believe that you have a point.

  45. Bucephalus says:
    Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 6:24 pm

    Boerwar – we were told that there wouldn’t be significant rain until April.
    —————-
    One swallow doesn’t make a summer

  46. The predictions made by BOM for the chances of above average rainfall in February in NSW were about right.

    https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/about-us/our-districts/mid-lachlan-valley/latest-news/climate-overview

    Rainfall for the week 3-9 February is likely to be above average for parts of eastern NSW, including some of the areas currently affected by bushfire and drought.
    The chances of a wetter or drier than average February to April are roughly equal for large parts of Australia, however, some areas such as northern WA and parts of the northern Murray-Darling Basin have a slightly increased chance of being drier than average. In contrast, Cape York is likely to be wetter than average.
    Recent rainfall has been beneficial for some drought and fire affected areas. However, several months of above average rainfall are needed to see a recovery from current long-term rainfall deficiencies.

    BOM attempt to forecast the future. The LNP attempt to rewrite the past.

  47. Just saw a news story of a breast cancer survivor in Queensland waiting more than 8 years for a breast reconstruction. Great system.

    Just read about a woman who had private health cover for 15 years, paying over $50,000 in premiums, being hit with out of pocket costs of over $5000 for surgery to remove her breast cancer.

    Read about another woman with top cover private health who needed reconstruction surgery after breast cancer and had $30000 out of pocket expenses.

    Great system.

    How about the story of a woman who had no private cover, was found to have a cyst in the middle of her brain – operated on within 5 days in a public hospital by the best brains surgeons in the state for 6 hours and a week in ICU…. no cost.

    Or the story of a chap with a lump in his neck suspected to be cancer. No private cover. Operated on within 2 weeks (same wait in private hospital) by a top ENT surgeon in the state (lots of important nerves in that area) in a new public hospital, private room. No cost.

    The public system needs work. It is not perfect and colonoscopy wait times are an example. But it can be improved by a government interested in doing it. The private system is doomed.

  50. Simon Katich
    says:
    The public system needs work. It is not perfect and colonoscopy wait times are an example. But it can be improved by a government interested in doing it. The private system is doomed.
    ___________________
    The last two stays I have had in public hospitals in Melbourne I have had a private room with ensuite, cute nurses, excellent care, food was acceptable, apart from the fruit juices they give you which are reconstituted horrible stuff. In any case I was having family bring me meals most days that I could eat. Overall perfect.

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