Nevada Democratic caucus: live commentary

Live commentary on today’s Nevada Democratic caucus. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.

4:06pm 88% counted now, and Biden will finish second ahead of Buttigieg.  I’ve done an article for The Conversation that emphasises the differences between the county delegate count (huge win for Sanders) and the initial popular vote (far less impressive for Sanders).

9:50am Monday Still only 60% reporting.  If Nevada was close like Iowa, there’d be another stink about the slow results.

4:30pm 43% now reporting, and Sanders has 47% of county delegates, but only 34.5% of the initial alignment vote.  He has 40.3% of the vote after realignment.

4:08pm CNN has more up-to-date figures on initial and final votes.  Using CNN’s results, I calculate that Sanders has 35% of the initial vote and 40.5% of the vote after realignment with 34% in.  Those figures are not as impressive for Sanders as his share of county delegates (47%).

Once again, we’ve had a dreadfully slow caucus count.  Hopefully there’ll be more clarity tomorrow.

2:10pm And it’s suddenly jumped to 22.5% reporting, with Sanders at 34% on first alignment, 40% on final alignment and 47% of county delegates.

2:07pm With 11% reporting, the Sanders margin is smaller on the first alignment votes.  Sanders has 34% on this measure, Biden 19%, Buttigieg 16% and Warren 12%.  On popular votes after realignment, Sanders has 40%, Biden 23%, Buttigieg 17% and Warren 10%.  On county delegates, 47% Sanders, 24% Biden and 14% Buttigieg.

Sanders is being assisted in the final alignment votes by being the only candidate who exceeds the 15% threshold in the vast majority of precincts.

12:20pm With 4% reporting, the Associated Press has CALLED Nevada for Bernie Sanders.

11:18am Once again (as in New Hampshire), the AP count, used by the NY Times, is well behind the count used by the TV networks including CNN.  With 10% reporting, the CNN results give Sanders a large lead in initial votes, but there are no percentages.

11:05am As with Iowa, the counting in Nevada is SLOOOOW!!  Just 3.4% of precincts have reported their initial alignment.

9:52am With less than 3% reporting, Sanders has 44% of the initial vote, 54% of the final vote and 55% of county delegates.  The initial vote is slightly ahead of the other two measures in precincts reporting.  Still a long way to go, but it’s looking like a big win for Sanders.

8:41am With 1% reporting, Sanders has 48% of the initial alignment, 53% of the vote after candidate realignment, and 52% of the county delegates.  Biden is a distant second with 18%, 23% and 26% on these three measures respectively.

7:33am The caucuses actually began 33 minutes ago.  First results are expected by 8:30am.  Entrance polls give Sanders about 35%, with the next highest at 15%.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The Nevada Democratic caucuses begin at 10am local time Saturday (5am Sunday AEDT). I am not sure when to expect results; they could come in the early morning, but may not come on Sunday at all, given the Iowa fiasco. Caucuses are managed by the party, not the state’s electoral authorities. It should be a relief that there are very few caucuses after Nevada.

Democratic delegates are allocated proportionally to all candidates who clear a 15% threshold, both within a state and Congressional District.  In the RealClearPolitics Nevada poll average, Bernie Sanders has 29.0%, Joe Biden 16.0%, Pete Buttigieg 14.0%, Elizabeth Warren 14.0% and Amy Klobuchar 10.5%. Current national polls give Sanders 28.7%, Biden 17.3%, Mike Bloomberg 15.2%, Warren 12.7%, Buttigieg 10.0% and Klobuchar 6.7%.

With these polls, Sanders is the only candidate far enough above 15% to be assured of clearing that threshold virtually everywhere. If these national poll results are reflected on Super Tuesday March 3, when 14 states vote and 34% of all pledged delegates are awarded, Sanders’ share of delegates would far exceed his vote share.

There is one contest after Nevada before Super Tuesday: the South Carolina primary next Saturday.  Biden needs a big win, but his lead over Sanders has plunged from 14 points in late January to just four points now.

Bloomberg had been gaining in the polls, at least before Wednesday’s widely criticised debate performance.  However, in a direct match-up with Sanders, he got crushed by a 57-37 margin in an NBC/WSJ poll.  While Bloomberg is winning the votes of those Democrats who believe only a billionaire can beat Donald Trump, most Democrats dislike giving the nomination to a billionaire.

If nobody comes near a majority of pledged delegates, there will be a contested Democratic convention in mid-July. Should this occur, it would be the first since 1952. If Bloomberg defeated Sanders at a contested convention, the Democratic party’s left would react badly to the perception of a billionaire stealing the nomination from their guy.

Assisted by the good US economy, Trump’s ratings are trending up.  In the FiveThirtyEight aggregate, his net approval is -7.8% with polls of registered or likely voters. Trump still trails the leading Democrats in RealClearPolitics averages, with Sanders, Biden and Bloomberg leading by 4.5 points, and Buttigieg, Warren and Klobuchar leading by two points.

328 comments on “Nevada Democratic caucus: live commentary”

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  1. Bonsa:

    Has the female vote been suppressed in this primary, or could it be that there are (and always has been) as many Bernie sisters as there are bro’s?

    Sanders Sistahs?

  2. I see the delusion is strong today among the usual suspects. How about a dose of reality?

    Former astronaut Mark Kelly, the Democratic Party’s hope for flipping a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona, tried to do no harm this month when he was asked about Sen. Bernie Sanders. “I will ultimately support who the nominee is of the Democratic Party,” he said.

    That was enough for Kelly’s Republican rival, Sen. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.), who is trailing him in early polls, to go on the attack. The television spot she debuted days later spent nearly as much time talking about plans by the democratic socialist from Vermont to raise taxes and award new benefits to undocumented immigrants as it did about Kelly.

    …If Democrats are awakening to a recognition that Sanders could pull away from the rest of the field, there is far less consensus about whether his nomination will help President Trump win reelection. Sanders’s power to turn out young and blue-collar voters or suburbanites is not fully tested, the ceiling of Trump’s support is poorly defined in a two-way race and the senator from Vermont has not yet been subjected to a negative paid advertising effort.

    “Our data shows that all of our potential nominees, including Sanders, have a pathway to victory, but it isn’t guaranteed,” said Guy Cecil, chairman of Priorities USA, a Democratic super PAC that has polled heavily in the key presidential swing states. “This election will be close regardless of who we nominate.”

    But there is far less flexibility for candidates in smaller districts. That has prompted Republicans to celebrate as they look to reclaim ground they lost in 2018 when largely affluent suburbs rebelled against the GOP in a protest of Trump.

    “The Democrats’ embrace of socialism is going to cost them their majority — I mean, it’s as simple as that,” said Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee. “Bernie is about as good a contrast as we could have ever hoped for.”

    Democrats, particularly those representing swing districts, agree.

    “We flipped those seats [in 2018] because of Donald Trump,” said one House Democrat who represents a suburban district, speaking on the condition of anonymity to reflect internal discussions. “And if Democrats want to hand most of those back, put Bernie at the top of the ticket. And that’s how many of us feel.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-bernie-sanderss-momentum-builds-down-ballot-democrats-move-to-distance-themselves/2020/02/22/3364ddd8-5516-11ea-9e47-59804be1dcfb_story.html

  3. Mr Newbie – you’ve argued this previously, but I’m not so sure it’s true. It’s not like it’s a case of 55% of enrolled voters are highly engaged and informed, while the other 45% just stay home. In reality, I’d say no more than 10% of voters would qualify as “engaged and informed” (aka habitues of sites like this), which leaves around 45% of all voters who normally turn up and vote, but who aren’t particularly informed.

    Those people in the main are rusted on to one side or the other, but a proportion of them flip around (estimates put this between 6% & 15% of all voters), and stay home.

    The concern of those of us not on the Bernie train is that, like Corbyn, his supporters are wildly enthusiastic about him, but a fair proportion of otherwise sympathetic voters are not, and may stay home rather than vote for a candidate about whom they harbour serious concerns, even though they want Trump gone.

  4. Yes, 62% want Medicare for all. That’s what the Nevada polling was telling them. Reminds me how Australians are in the majority for climate change but one proviso – as long as it doesn’t cost me $$$$.

    What wasn’t told to them about Universal Healthcare. How does it get paid? That’s where the scare campaign will come in.

    The USA has voluntary voting thereby it isn’t about getting just your base out – you need to get the independents out, you need to win in the swing states. If people aren’t willing they don’t show up on polling day. I can guarantee Trumps will show up.

    Some on here haven’t been following USA politics for long I’m convinced.

  5. HugoAGoGo,
    I just had a look at the people that came out for Mayor Pete and those who were at the Sanders celebration. Chalk and cheese. Mayor Pete’s crowd were the suburbanites that the Democrats need to support them. The Sanders crowd were the rusted-on types you spoke about.

  6. I’m an utterly delusional supporter of democratic socialism watching the results and hard data coming out of Nevada and what it is suggesting to me is that Steyer, Klobuchar and Buttigieg probably don’t have a snowflakes chance in hell of getting enough support to mount anything but the weakest of challenges against Trump. But I’m probably wrong because I always follow my head and its absorption of hard data over more nebulous heart-feelings.

  7. from the article C@t posted:

    “Our data shows that all of our potential nominees, including Sanders, have a pathway to victory, but it isn’t guaranteed,”

    For which candidate/s is a pathway to victory “guaranteed” for, then?

  11. So is the WP really that biased against Bernie, or are Cat and Fess only posting the increasingly desperate WP articles that try and rain on Bernie’s parade, and astutely avoiding everything else?

  12. Tristo, Lucianna Berger was always going to leave British Labour because she was a rabid right winger, the anti Semitism was a handy pretext for her betrayal. She was nothing more than a traitorous rat.

  17. “bye bye Amy?”

    ***

    She went straight back to her home state of Minnesota to campaign there. It’s a Super Tuesday state so it looks like she’s staying on until then.

  18. Asha Leu @ #58 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 10:24 am

    Confessions:

    Well, let’s Bernie’s candidacy echoes Trump’s in November, too.

    The main difference between now and 2016 is Trump has one huge advantage he didn’t have back then: incumbency. It’s hard enough for Democrats to win in normal circumstances (hence their wins with exceptional candidates), but this time the stakes are higher than they were 4 years ago. Which is why I wanted to see Dems nominate a candidate who appealed to a plurality of voters, not just liberal Democrats or liberal Democrat leaning voters.

  19. So is the WP really that biased against Bernie

    No it isn’t. The WaPo is frequently noted as one of the country’s best newspapers along with the NY Times. It’s easy to perceive bias when you’re a partisan ideologue.

  20. “Which is why I wanted to see Dems nominate a candidate who appealed to a plurality of voters, not just liberal Democrats or liberal Democrat leaning voters.”

    ***

    Such as who? If you don’t think it should be Bernie then who would be your pick?

  25. David Roth has a good article at The New Republic about why it is foolish to claim that Sanders is similar to Trump.

    Sanders is, not for nothing, the most popular politician in the country, and one that a healthy majority of voters regard as honest and aligned with their values; Trump, in contrast, has long been and remains historically unpopular. Once Democrats stop making facile comparisons between Sanders and Trump and start drawing the many real and devastating contrasts between the two, this unpolished old socialist really could not just win the White House back but fire up a durable movement. A growing number of Democratic voters seem prepared and even eager to try this. Democratic elites may eventually come around as well, but might in a narrow sense cut against their own self-interest in doing so.

    https://newrepublic.com/article/156639/bernie-sanders-no-donald-trump

  26. It’s hilarious to watch the desperation of the neoliberal corporate-types here trying to discredit Sanders, without actually ever addressing the policies he stands for.

  28. So a couple of weeks ago, a popular argument was that the Sanders vote capped out at ~30%, and that the remaining ~70% (distributed among other candidates) was an “anti-Sanders” vote which would eventually redistribute to other “moderates” or “centrists”, with none of it going to Sanders, as candidates dropped out.

    Is that being borne out?

  30. Mr Newbie @ #76 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 2:56 pm

    It’s hilarious to watch the desperation of the neoliberal corporate-types here trying to discredit Sanders, without actually ever addressing the policies he stands for.

    They will try to take Sanders down by posting irrelevant antique music videos and hinting that his supporters are a bit unwashed and smelly. That should work!

  31. Below, an extended look at the best and worst from the day — and night — that was.

    WINNERS

    * Bernie Sanders: Yes, the Vermont democratic socialist was the favorite in Nevada going into the caucuses. But few people projected such a sweeping win — not only doubling the support of the second-place finisher, but doing so in ways (most notably his huge support among Latinos) that suggest he is on his way to building a national coalition. The dynamic of the race is now very simple: Sanders is the clear front-runner, and everyone else in the field is vying to be the Sanders alternative.

    * Pete Buttigieg: The most important thing the former South Bend, Indiana, mayor did in Nevada was the speech he gave after it was clear Sanders was going to win. Buttigieg used the national spotlight to make a very savvy play to be the Sanders alternative. He savaged Sanders’ “inflexible, ideological revolution that leaves out most Democrats, not to mention most Americans” and decried the “tenor of combat, division and polarization” of the Sanders supporters. New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, a prominent Sanders backer, tweeted “dude, show some humility” to Buttigieg in the wake of the speech. Mission accomplished for Team Buttigieg.

    * Joe Biden: After finishing fourth in Iowa and fifth in New Hampshire, the former vice president badly needed some good news. And Nevada gave him just enough of that to keep him going for another week, through the South Carolina primary. But there’s warning signs everywhere for Biden in the numbers; he got crushed by Sanders among Latinos, won black voters over Sanders by less than double-digits and played to a tie with Sanders among moderate voters. Biden desperately has to win South Carolina, and Sanders’ demonstrated strength across a broad coalition is very problematic there.

    * Electability: Two thirds of Nevada caucus-goers said they would prefer a candidate who can beat President Donald Trump rather than someone who agrees with them on issues. That’s very similar to the number who opted for electability in Iowa and New Hampshire, and serves as yet another reminder of just how important beating the incumbent is for a broad swath of Democratic voters. Here’s the really interesting thing, though: Among those who said electability was most important, Sanders — yes, Sanders — was the leading candidate.

    * Donald Trump: The rise of Sanders — and the considerable concern within elements of the Democratic Party about nominating a democratic socialist — means that this primary season is going to be very long and likely very nasty, as the party dukes it out over what its present and future should look like. All of that is great news for Trump, who continues to consolidate GOP support and whose campaign continues to stockpile cash. Plus, whether or not he is right, Trump quite clearly believes Sanders is his easiest general election opponent — and right now the Vermont senator is the favorite to be just that.

    LOSERS

    * Elizabeth Warren: The meteoric rise of Sanders is very bad news for Warren. While their coalitions are not exactly the same, both Sanders and Warren have spent the entire campaign trying to be the liberal choice. It now appears as though that debate is settled — and Warren lost. While Warren had a very strong debate earlier this week — and her campaign manager highlighted the fact that she improved her standing considerably between early voting and people who attended the caucus day of — she still hasn’t had a Top 2 showing. And looking at the calendar in the next few weeks, it’s not immediately obvious to me where she might get that sort of performance.

    * Amy Klobuchar: The Minnesota senator surprised the political world in New Hampshire with a strong close that got her to third place. But the 10 days in between New Hampshire and Nevada clearly sapped Klobuchar of the momentum she had built. Her lackluster showing in Nevada will make it very difficult for Klobuchar to make any noise in South Carolina and that, in turn, will make her chances of winning delegates on Super Tuesday very, very long. It may well be time for Klobuchar to start rethinking whether she wants to remain in the race.

    * Culinary Union: The most powerful union in the state decided not to endorse a candidate. But a flier it sent to its members attacking Sanders’ “Medicare for All” plan, which would eliminate private health insurance entirely, became a major issue in the race as supporters of the Vermont senator attacked the union leadership. Sanders’ smashing victory — and the overwhelming support for the elimination of private health insurance among Nevada voters — amount to a major rebuke for the Culinary Union.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/22/politics/who-won-nevada-caucuses/index.html

  32. Congratulations to the worst Democrat candidate in history – perennial loser Sleepy Joe Biden. Finally, after 32 years he has achieved enough momentum to finish … second … in the piss ant Arizona caucuses.

    Can anything stop this political Titan now?

  33. Spare a thought for poor Tulsi Gabbard, who has about 0.1% of county delegates right now, and not much more on raw vote totals. If she doesn’t drop out after tonight, she is utterly delusional.

  36. The reason the establishment dislike Sanders, is that he is more extreme.
    They think he cant win because traditional logic says most of the votes are in the center, but politics is so polarized right now that the only way to be in the center is be a total fraud and manufacture all your opinions.
    Sanders is only one who can beat trump, old dogs wont understand.

  37. Mr Newbie @ #76 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 2:56 pm

    It’s hilarious to watch the desperation of the neoliberal corporate-types here trying to discredit Sanders, without actually ever addressing the policies he stands for.

    Funny thing is, they swallow the neoliberal corporate rubbish while more than likely some are struggling to get by on a pension.

  38. I can’t wait for the post Super Tuesday winnowing. Hopefully both Biden and Bloomberg commit Seppuku then, with (alas) both Amy and Warren also suspending their campaigns. That way the seemingly inevitable Sanders-Buttigieg epic Götterdämmerung can get underway forthwith with the winner securing a majority (or overwhelming plurality) of the popular vote and pledged delegates before May.

  39. “ Buttigieg is a winner for making a ‘sore loser’ speech?”

    Absolutely. The choice of nominee is narrowing and THAT is exactly the message that needs to be hit home. If the party does end up feel’n theBern it must do so with its eyes wide open.

  40. Bellwether:

    The point is that he continued to solidify his claim as the centre-left standard-bearer, particularly since he’s done better than expected (if far from spectacularly) in Nevada.

    He’s going to have a bloody difficult task wresting the top spot from Sanders, though. Unless at least two of the moderates drop out before Super Tuesday (Klobucher’s a possibility after tonight, but Biden won’t unless he really disappoints in SC, and Bloomberg obviously won’t), they are all going to heavily split each other’s votes from state to state, and Sanders’ delegate lead will likely be high enough that even if everyone solidifies between one of the “not-Sanders” options afterwards, it’ll probably be too little, too late – especially if a lot of moderate Democrats decide that a Sanders nomination is preferable to a contested convention. It’ll be the 2016 Republican race all over again.

  42. I can’t wait for the post Super Tuesday winnowing. Hopefully both Biden and Bloomberg commit Seppuku then, with (alas) both Amy and Warren also suspending their campaigns. That way the seemingly inevitable Sanders-Buttigieg epic Götterdämmerung can get underway forthwith with the winner securing a majority (or overwhelming plurality) of the popular vote and pledged delegates before May.

    I’m hoping the same. Sanders and Buttigieg are both very flawed candidates in their own ways, but either is far preferably to Biden, Bloomberg, or a messy contested convention.

  43. SK:

    Bloomberg has turned out to be Bernie’s greatest ally, in my opinion. He’s split the already divided moderate field even further, and his – IMO – boneheaded big states strategy has ensured that even if one of them built up a clear lead before Super Tuesday, they are undermined by the constant “what’s going to happen when Bloomberg’s properly in the race” factor. The fact that the only person really competing with Bernie for the progressives is the underperforming Warren means that its becoming increasingly apparent that the only way for a clear victor to emerge is through Sanders taking the lead, especially since Bloomberg’s polling well enough to screw over the other moderates but not nearly well enough to compete with Bernie without Buttigeig, Biden, and Klobucher all dropping out, but they are all performing well enough to justify staying in until Super Tuesday at least.

  44. Asha Leu @ #92 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 3:35 pm

    I can’t wait for the post Super Tuesday winnowing. Hopefully both Biden and Bloomberg commit Seppuku then, with (alas) both Amy and Warren also suspending their campaigns. That way the seemingly inevitable Sanders-Buttigieg epic Götterdämmerung can get underway forthwith with the winner securing a majority (or overwhelming plurality) of the popular vote and pledged delegates before May.

    I’m hoping the same. Sanders and Buttigieg are both very flawed candidates in their own ways, but either is far preferably to Biden, Bloomberg, or a messy contested convention.

    I may be wrong but I honestly cannot see a pathway for Pete Buttigieg other than through a contested convention.

  45. “ Two thirds of Nevada caucus-goers said they would prefer a candidate who can beat President Donald Trump rather than someone who agrees with them on issues. “

    Amen to that. Dunno who it is though.

  46. Bellwether:

    If Biden, Klobucher, and Bloomberg all dropped out very soon, and all fell in behind him, then he’d have a strong shot.

    In reality, however, Biden and Bloomberg are unlikely to quit until after Super Tuesday, most likely Klobucher too (since Nevada and South Carolina were never expected to be great for her anyway), and if any of them manage to either do roughly equal or better than Buttigeig on Super Tuesday, they are very likely to stay in the race after ST too, making the argument that, well, why doesn’t Pete drop out instead of he’s so concerned about Sanders. Klobucher, at least, also seems to loathe Buttigieg, but I suppose that hasn’t stopped many a political alliance in the past. (Again, just look at Trump and the GOP establishment.)

    IMO, the only path to besting Sanders is if one of the moderates takes a commanding, unambiguous lead over the others and manages to clean up in Super Tuesday – otherwise, Sanders’ lead and the way delegate thresholds work will make him unstoppable.

  47. Bellwether @ #80 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 3:11 pm

    Mr Newbie @ #76 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 2:56 pm

    It’s hilarious to watch the desperation of the neoliberal corporate-types here trying to discredit Sanders, without actually ever addressing the policies he stands for.

    They will try to take Sanders down by posting irrelevant antique music videos and hinting that his supporters are a bit unwashed and smelly. That should work!

    Or you could follow the guy who will lose in a landslide to Trump in November. But, hey, you’re the cool kids. 😆

  50. I mean, it’s absolutely comical to see people boosting someone who has already had one heart attack on the campaign trail, won’t release his medical records, and will be the oldest POTUS in history, should he last that long, not to mention confronting a new majority Republican House and Senate that won’t pass diddly squat of his agenda, over a young, fit, charismatic, moderate veteran from the Mid West. But, hey, love is blind, so they say.

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