Bundambarama

A second by-election now looms in Queensland, in which One Nation may cause trouble in a traditionally Labor-voting working class seat. Elsewhere, Josh Frydenberg faces a contentious Section 44 challenge, and a Victorian Liberal aspirant regrets not paying his train fare.

At the top of the sidebar are links to guides I have up for three by-election campaigns currently in progress, including yesterday’s new addition:

• Queensland’s festival of democracy on March 28 looks set to receive a new attraction after Jo-Ann Miller’s announcement to parliament yesterday that she is resigning as member of the eastern Ipswich seat of Bundamba, effective immediately. After two decades as Labor member, Miller has grown increasingly estranged from her party over time, a particularly interesting manifestation of which was an appearance alongside Pauline Hanson on the campaign trail two days before the December 2017 state election. One Nation did not field a candidate against Miller in 2017, but has been quick to announce it has a candidate ready to go for the by-election, who will be announced on the weekend. Since Ipswich was the birthplace of the Hanson phenomenon, this could yet make the by-election more interesting than the 21.6% two-party margin suggests. Tony Moore of the Brisbane Times reports Steve Axe, Miller’s electorate officer, will contest the preselection, but Sarah Elks of The Australian reports the front runners are two candidates of the Left: Nick Thompson and Lance McCallum, who are respectively aligned with the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union and the Electrical Trades Union. I have a provisional by-election guide up and running which takes it for granted it will be held on March 28, though this is yet to be officially confirmed. Also on that day will be the Currumbin by-election and council elections, including for the big prizes of the Brisbane city council and lord mayoralty.

• Further on the by-election front, I had a paywalled piece in Crikey yesterday on the Greens preferences imbroglio in Johnston.

Legal matters:

• The Federal Court is hearing a Section 44 challenge against Josh Frydenberg relating to his Hungarian-born mother, which complainant Michael Staindl argues makes him a dual citizen. Frydenberg’s mother and her family fled the country in 1949 as its post-war communist regime tightened its grip on power, describing themselves as stateless on arrival in Australia. Staindl maintains that the whole family’s Hungarian citizenship rights were restored with the collapse of communism in 1949. Staindl is also pursuing defamation action against Scott Morrison over the latter’s claim that his action was motivated by anti-Semitism. The Australian ($) reports a decision is expected “within weeks”.

• In further legal obscurantism news, Emanuele Cicchiello has withdrawn from the race to fill Mary Wooldridge’s vacancy in the Victorian Legislative Council on the grounds that he once pleaded guilty to an offence carrying a prison term of more than five years – for improperly claiming a concessional train fare when he was 19. The Australian ($) reports that those remaining in the field are Asher Judah, former Property Council deputy director and Master Builders policy manager, and Matthew Bach, deputy director of Ivanhoe Girls Grammar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,417 thoughts on “Bundambarama”

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  1. P1:’And what are the chances of you only noticing and commenting on the ones you don’t like?’

    Zero, they would stand out and be very noticeable.

  2. “Actually, Albo came pretty damned close to lying, by pretending he was announcing something new.” (Albo not being pure enough)

    Perhaps there is hope for him yet!(at the same time Albo not corrupt enough)

  3. Player One
    It is one thing to be profitable but despite stock markets being at record highs the energy sector which covers the coal miners has been a serious under-performer to the rest of the market to the point of actually losing money.

  4. P1:’But by all means skip more. Skip them all, in fact. You don’t contribute much to the actual substance of the debate anyway.

    Oh going into full bully mode I see.

    My contribution is pointing out how one-sided people are, when they claim the are even handed.

    You have claimed to be even handed and criticised both the LNP and Greens as well as Labor. Yet all I see is slagging labor. I am just pointing this out.

  5. “So, we have established that, just like the Liberals, Labor also lies.”(Labor is not pure enough)

    But the Liberals know how to lie to their electoral advantage. Labor doesn’t.

    But if they are going to lie anyway, don’t you think they should learn?(Labor is not corrupt enough)

  6. P1 – what I was saying about the media policy amnesia is that ALP had a comprehensive transitional climate change policy going into the last election yet the media ignores every aspect of that and simply focus on targets and the unquantifiable cost.

    It’s all or nothing. Same with many minor party criticisms of Labor.

    It seems the LNP has a right to simply make declarations, without detail … and that is accepted.

    Labor provides detail … but media wants declarations. C.f. Speers this morning.

  7. Roger Miller @ #1206 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 2:55 pm

    “Actually, Albo came pretty damned close to lying, by pretending he was announcing something new.” (Albo not being pure enough)

    Perhaps there is hope for him yet!(at the same time Albo not corrupt enough)

    Sorry, but you are misinterpreting me. I was commending Albo. He actually came quite close to being interesting. He missed it by only a little – he gave it away when he admitted Labor was just “re”-committing to “net zero by 2050”.

    He should have just said this was their new policy. That would have had much more impact, don’t you think?

  8. Roger Miller @ #1209 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 3:00 pm

    “So, we have established that, just like the Liberals, Labor also lies.”(Labor is not pure enough)

    But the Liberals know how to lie to their electoral advantage. Labor doesn’t.

    But if they are going to lie anyway, don’t you think they should learn?(Labor is not corrupt enough)

    *sigh*

    Pointing out that Labor lies is just pointing out the fact that they do so. I was not condemning them for it.

  9. P1

    ‘He should have just said this was their new policy. That would have had much more impact, don’t you think?’

    Sorry, what? I know that you’re daft as, but seriously? Almost the second Labor’s policy was released you were on here saying ‘this isn’t new policy’.

    You really are a jumble of hopeless contradictions. I’m glad you’ve admitted that you lack the intellectual rigour to admit error, at least. Not a surprise, but when I said the same thing, you got all huffy.

  10. jenauthor @ #1210 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 3:04 pm

    P1 – what I was saying about the media policy amnesia is that ALP had a comprehensive transitional climate change policy going into the last election yet the media ignores every aspect of that and simply focus on targets and the unquantifiable cost.

    It’s all or nothing. Same with many minor party criticisms of Labor.

    It seems the LNP has a right to simply make declarations, without detail … and that is accepted.

    Labor provides detail … but media wants declarations. C.f. Speers this morning.

    I thnk we are on the same page. Labor needs to stop falling into this “detail” trap every time. Forget about providing the detail no one will ever appreciate or even understand, and learn how to derail the questioner instead. Do what the Liberals do, in other words – attack, lie and criticize their opponents … or the interviewer!

    The Liberals know most people never watch in-depth interviews, or read in-depth articles about the subject – only we do things like that. The average punter watches the 10-second news grab, or a politician getting snarky with an interviewer, or putting down the opposition.

    The Liberals are excellent at that. And Labor sucks. Go back and watch Margaret Thatcher being interviewed. She was superb at fobbing off questions she didn’t want to answer.

  11. zoomster @ #1214 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 3:16 pm

    P1

    ‘He should have just said this was their new policy. That would have had much more impact, don’t you think?’

    Sorry, what? I know that you’re daft as, but seriously? Almost the second Labor’s policy was released you were on here saying ‘this isn’t new policy’.

    You really are a jumble of hopeless contradictions. I’m glad you’ve admitted that you lack the intellectual rigour to admit error, at least. Not a surprise, but when I said the same thing, you got all huffy.

    Do try and keep up, Z. You are missing the point again. It isn’t new policy. And yet Albo almost made it sound like he was announcing a new policy – yay! – but then gave the game away by admitting it wasn’t new policy. Some media reports picked up on that, others missed it. Why did he do that? He should have just said “this is our new policy”.

  12. Well, thank you everyone for the round table discussion, especially Player One who took my question seriously and answered it before I sneaked off for a nap, and the others who did the same. There were lots of logical points made, IMV. 😆

  13. Lenna Leprena @LennaLeprena
    ·
    6h
    Just watched Insiders for first time for years and that Streets freak is STILL a Murdoch mafia shill to the bone..he tried his damnedest to set Albo up for a Murdoch mafia mauling and did his best to ensure that the ALP will not be able to put a price on carbon…that is evil..

    I think she’s right. A “price on carbon” has been painted by the LNP as “danger! your power bills are going up” (it was Abbott’s constant refrain). But they’ve risen anyway, partly because of the privatisation of the system. Does the media ever wring their hands over that?

  14. Roger Miller @ #1218 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 3:43 pm

    Yeah Z, get with the program. Not having a new policy is bad, but not lying about it is worse.

    Are you being deliberately obtuse, Roger?

    Look at how the ABC reported Albo’s speech:

    “Labor’s Anthony Albanese recommits party to net zero carbon emissions target for 2050”

    A plan to make Australia a net zero carbon emitter by 2050 remains in Labor’s sights, with Opposition leader Anthony Albanese adopting the policy his predecessor took to the last election.

    All of Labor’s policies have been up for review since its shock election loss last May.

    But in a sign the party is beginning to lock in policies it will take to the next election, Mr Albanese will recommit his party to the 2050 commitment in a speech in Melbourne.

    It remains unclear, however, what emission target Labor will seek to achieve by 2030.

    While announcing the 2050 goal, Mr Albanese will not outline how Labor will achieve it, a move the party’s climate change spokesman defended.

    Albo took a golden opportunity to get some good news coverage on climate change policy … and completely screwed it up and ended up looking like nothing more that a lame “Shorten 2.0” (which is exactly what the Liberals came out and called him shortly afterwards) 🙁

    And some people here still wonder why Labor lost the last election!

  15. Dave Sharma @DaveSharma
    ·
    5h
    Cutting emissions is one of the most serious economic and environmental challenges and opportunities we all collectively face. But unfortunately this bill is a triumph of symbolism over substance.
    Well-said ⁦@JasonFalinskiMP@TimWilsonMP⁩.

    I bet Sharma was a spoilt little teacher’s pet at school.

  16. zoomster @ #1156 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 10:53 am

    They say what people want to hear. That’s not tackling issues, that’s avoiding them.

    Valid point, however telling coal miners they have a secure future is the same thing. Those jobs will disappear because of reducing emissions or automation. It’s just a question of which happens first (probably automation).

    Sooner or later, coal miners need to be told the truth. One way or the other, or indeed both ways (automation and emissions reduction), mean there is no long or even medium term future in coal mining.

    Not doing that is avoiding the issue(s).

  17. Player One

    Shorten 2.0 is last week’s invention by Morrison’s spinners and he’ll use it to death from now on, no doubt, in reaction to everything. He’s tried “this way that way Labor” and “no policies” and probably thinks this is more potent.

  18. lizzie @ #1219 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 3:50 pm

    I think she’s right. A “price on carbon” has been painted by the LNP as “danger! your power bills are going up” (it was Abbott’s constant refrain). But they’ve risen anyway, partly because of the privatisation of the system. Does the media ever wring their hands over that?

    A perfect example of what we have been discussing, lizzie!

    This is the Lib’s modus operandi: Fact’s don’t matter. Logic doesn’t matter. Get your message in the face of the voters. Keep it short. Lie if it helps. If the truth comes out later, just lie about that too. No-one will ever check except those who’s votes you weren’t going to get anyway.

    Of course, the Liberals get away with it partly because of a compliant media. But, as I said, in many cases that’s because the Liberals give them a better product to push. Better video. Better sound bites. Simpler messages. Short and sharp and nasty and … effective.

  19. Here’s another angle.

    Ben Eltham@beneltham
    15m

    Still kind of astonished Labor won’t consider dusting off the Clean Energy Future package from 2012 and running on that platform. You want costings? How about a successful economy-wide trial program that delivered emissions reductions, lower energy costs and economic growth?

    This is just another aspect of the way Labor’s Rudd-Gillard chaos of 2012-13 casts such a long shadow over the party even today. The ALP is still extraordinarily reluctant to own the single biggest policy achievement of their last government

  20. Labor won’t win without the support of people with the view point of the OTIS group ie economically left/socially moderate to conservative. If you take their numbers as guide, about 20 members and senators out of a Parliament of 225, then they account for about 10% of the population.

    If this viewpoint is excised from Labor, most of that vote will go to the LNP. Where will the replacement votes come from? Obviously a wiser strategy is for the Left to stop adopting purity tests for the people whose votes they want. I presume that’s where Albanese is coming from as he wants to win.

  21. Watching Insiders is like listening to gossip, except that the gossips choke back the REAL gossip.

    The real inside information is found on Twitter if you follow people like
    Ronnie Salt, Jommy Tee, Simon Holmes a Court, Renew Economy, Micheal West

    Which ABC programs analyse political party policies?

  22. lizzie @ #1224 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 3:58 pm

    Player One

    Shorten 2.0 is last week’s invention by Morrison’s spinners and he’ll use it to death from now on, no doubt, in reaction to everything. He’s tried “this way that way Labor” and “no policies” and probably thinks this is more potent.

    I wonder? I reckon after a few more months of Albo’s dithering, and Morrison’s smug incompetence, people might start thinking Shorten wouldn’t have been such a bad option after all! 🙂

  23. I am heartily sick of the hand wringing to save coal mining jobs as I remember

    1. Coal mines are being automated, which is good because underground coal mining is very dangerous.

    2. Coal miners like Rio use contract miners at mines like Mt Thorley. Contract miners must have all their safety tickets to enter the site. They are used to break union power

    3. When demand for coal falls, mines close, miners are laid off

    4. The miners retrenched through automation are ignored

    5. Coal miners in Hunter Valley know that demand for coal miners is falling, they know that Joel Fitzgibbon is useless hence they voted for the former union rep turned PHON candidate

    6. If Adani or any Galilee Basin mine opens, the Hunter Valley coal fields will close.

    7. Coal miners want to transition to new jobs or retire Early in comfort. Although why should they be treated differently to other workers

    8. Coal miners are being weaponised to save mining company profits and rescue the stranded coal tenement assets of the Galilee Basin

  24. Donald Trump has poisoned American culture — but the toxin was here all along

    Donald Trump’s cruelty and vulgarity have done enormous damage — but let’s stop pretending he’s “un-American”

    Here is a good, truth-in-advertising political slogan: “How much money will it bring in?” That is also the question that Alexis de Tocqueville argued Americans use to ascertain the “value of everything in this world.”

    Even if life, liberty and the pursuit of hucksterism always formed the core of American culture, there has also existed an alternative America. It is the America we can discern in the speeches of Martin Luther King, the songs of Woody Guthrie and the social movements that have pressured the government to move toward the actualization of “liberty and justice for all.”

    For almost all of American history, even the most cutthroat politicians acted as participants in a national masquerade, disguising their corporate servility with a cloak of sentimental rhetoric. Ronald Reagan likened America to a “shining city on a hill.” George W. Bush promised to “restore integrity” to the country after Bill Clinton’s sex scandal, and John McCain insisted that “character counts,” even in the gladiatorial arena of political trickery, slander and brinkmanship.

    In only five years, Trump has enabled Republicans in Congress, in the media and in attendance at his pro wrestling-meets-Mussolini rallies to overcome what the late David Foster Wallace called, “the shame hobble.” They not only accept Trump’s behavior, no matter how vulgar or mean-spirited, they act as if morality does not even exist.

    Democrats too often act as if it is a foregone conclusion that decency and civic-mindedness will prevail over Trump’s malignant narcissism, and the antisocial ethos of power worship it represents.

    For Trump’s part, he will use his power to subvert the rule of law, undermine American agencies and institutions of government, and enact his “how much money will it bring in” agenda by cutting environmental protections, health and safety standards for workers and consumers, and funding for anything that implies a common good, from libraries to student loan forgiveness programs.

    Those among us who still pledge some allegiance to the alternative America can watch in horror as we inch closer to the realization that Donald Trump, the personification of kitsch, ignorance and barbarism, is not un-American at all. He is as American as fireworks on the Fourth of July.

    MORE : https://www.salon.com/2020/02/22/donald-trump-has-poisoned-american-culture–but-the-toxin-was-here-all-along/

  25. lizzie @ #1223 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 4:03 pm

    Here’s another angle.

    Ben Eltham@beneltham
    15m

    Still kind of astonished Labor won’t consider dusting off the Clean Energy Future package from 2012 and running on that platform. You want costings? How about a successful economy-wide trial program that delivered emissions reductions, lower energy costs and economic growth?

    This is just another aspect of the way Labor’s Rudd-Gillard chaos of 2012-13 casts such a long shadow over the party even today. The ALP is still extraordinarily reluctant to own the single biggest policy achievement of their last government

    Aint that the truth.
    It reminds me of how Beasley Labor ran a million miles an hour away from the Hawke/Keating administrations.

  26. lizzie @ #1166 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 4:03 pm

    Here’s another angle.

    Ben Eltham@beneltham
    15m

    Still kind of astonished Labor won’t consider dusting off the Clean Energy Future package from 2012 and running on that platform. You want costings? How about a successful economy-wide trial program that delivered emissions reductions, lower energy costs and economic growth?

    This is just another aspect of the way Labor’s Rudd-Gillard chaos of 2012-13 casts such a long shadow over the party even today. The ALP is still extraordinarily reluctant to own the single biggest policy achievement of their last government

    Labor are more embarrassed than proud of the CEP because it took the Greens and Independents to twist their arm.

  27. billie @ #1232 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 4:18 pm

    I am heartily sick of the hand wringing to save coal mining jobs …

    Excellent post, billie!

    This is one of the subjects I had in mind when I pointed out that Labor lies as much as the Liberals do.

    Labor knows that most things it says about coal mining jobs are outright lies. But this is lying to no purpose – those miners are not going to shift their votes back to Labor as long as they can see they will be better off under the Liberals. Why would they?

    Both sides lie. But the Liberals lie to win elections. Labor lies to no purpose that I can fathom.

  28. Lizzie, I can remember when the ABC used to question government policies, usually on Today Tonight and 4Corners. The AFR used be worth reading.
    The Australian has always been regarded as propaganda. I watch migrants struggling to understand poorly written prose that defends the indefensible. If I can’t understand what is written in an australian newspaper, it is poorly expressed or it’s illogical rubbish

    I find the Guardian reports critically on
    Climate change
    Social security & Robodebt
    Economic performance using statistics & graphs
    Parliamentary antics with the acerbic Amy Remeikis
    Bushfire coverage was good

  29. My disillusionment isn’t with political parties — they use whatever tactics they feel are justified … and though I abhor the tactics of the conservatives, I undertand they use those tactics because they work for them.

    What disillusions me most is media coverage: the time when media had integrity is long gone.

    They have favourites, not because of the news they generate so much as how political antics give them red meat.

    I wish Labor WAS as big arseholes as the conservatives who really do not have any conscience when it comes to the game they play. The conservatives provide easy red meat by not only being said arseholes, but also throwing scraps to the seagulls about their opposition … without needing any semblance of truth in those scraps.

    It must be SOOOOOOO frustrating for those in Labor.

    Last election Labor had what should have been a winning platform but the scraps from the coalition were lapped up by the media, who dutifully sent them to the low information voters in the form of fear. Truth never entered into it.

    Meanwhile, any hope of climate change mitigation gets continually shunted backward because information gets so garbled in the conduit that is supposed to be informing us.

  30. 5. Coal miners in Hunter Valley know that demand for coal miners is falling, they know that Joel Fitzgibbon is useless hence they voted for the former union rep turned PHON candidate

    PHON and Greens will syphon more and more votes away from Labor if they’re not careful.

  31. Player One,

    1. I don’t believe coal miners vote Liberal. They voted for minor parties that harvested preferences for the LNP

    2. If you think Labor lies as much as the LNP does, well go ahead and vote for Scotty From Marketing

    3. Tragically many LNP voters are on low incomes or welfare and voted for a government that has policies to make their lives harder, but they despise the unemployed and ALP.

  32. lizzie @ #1227 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 12:55 pm

    Dave Sharma @DaveSharma
    ·
    5h
    Cutting emissions is one of the most serious economic and environmental challenges and opportunities we all collectively face. But unfortunately this bill is a triumph of symbolism over substance.
    Well-said ⁦@JasonFalinskiMP@TimWilsonMP⁩.

    I bet Sharma was a spoilt little teacher’s pet at school.

    It seems they’re trying the Greens tactic of purity.

  33. jenauthor says: Sunday, February 23, 2020 at 4:28 pm

    My disillusionment isn’t with political parties — they use whatever tactics they feel are justified … and though I abhor the tactics of the conservatives, I undertand they use those tactics because they work for them.

    What disillusions me most is media coverage: the time when media had integrity is long gone.

    ******************************************************************

    It is obvious that the major goal of the present 80% Murdoch ownership of all forms of media in Australia – radio, TV, print – is to Make the Ignorant More Ignorant and the Crazy Crazier ……

    The financially starved ABC – now run by Packer/Fox assets such as ItaButrose and David Speers are the latest fifth column operatives to try boost that 80 % to even higher to get TOTAL CONTROL of all aspects of political life in Australia

  34. @Rex Douglas

    If say our banks collapsed and Labor supported a bank bailout. Both One Nation and the Greens will oppose it and their support could skyrocket. Which worries me when it comes to One Nation.

  35. Billie

    Thanks for your insights.

    The miners retrenched through automation are ignored

    Coal miners in Hunter Valley know that demand for coal miners is falling, they know that Joel Fitzgibbon is useless hence they voted for the former union rep turned PHON candidate

    If Adani or any Galilee Basin mine opens, the Hunter Valley coal fields will close.

    Seems to me that Fitzgibbon doesn’t know as much as he thinks, therefore Labor shouldn’t bow to his “knowledge”, but the media are loving the “split”. Has anybody revealed this to Albo?

  36. Jenauthor your posted reminded me that Micheal west wrote an article on the links between coal and the media

    1. Murdoch owns a coal mine
    2. Stokes owns channel 7 and the Caterpillar franchise in WA providing all that heavy equipment trucks, bulldozers
    3. Channel 9 & Fairfax chair is Peter Costello
    4. Channel 10 owned by CNN which also has coal mines
    5. The ABC board has been stacked with members who are board members of coal mines
    6. SBS board member also director coal mine

    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/compromised-genie-energy-and-the-murdoch-medias-climate-denial/

    I can’t find the more pertinent article

  37. billie @ #1241 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 4:39 pm

    Player One,

    1. I don’t believe coal miners vote Liberal. They voted for minor parties that harvested preferences for the LNP

    2. If you think Labor lies as much as the LNP does, well go ahead and vote for Scotty From Marketing

    3. Tragically many LNP voters are on low incomes or welfare and voted for a government that has policies to make their lives harder, but they despise the unemployed and ALP.

    You may be right about 1 & 3. On 2, my beef is not that they lie more or less, but that they lie to no good purpose.

    Lie and win, well, at least you’re a winner. But lie and lose? What’s that about? 🙁

  38. lizzie @ #1224 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 3:58 pm

    Player One

    Shorten 2.0 is last week’s invention by Morrison’s spinners and he’ll use it to death from now on, no doubt, in reaction to everything. He’s tried “this way that way Labor” and “no policies” and probably thinks this is more potent.

    It is. They can just use pictures. In black and scary white. It gets the job done in about 2 seconds and you can share it with all your redneck friends for a laff.

  39. MickMack wouldn’t recognise his own “ideological path” if he fell over it.

    Andrew Giles MP
    @andrewjgiles
    22m
    Seriously? This is as embarrassing as it is depressing.
    (And that’s before we get to the replacement of ‘scientific, evidence based’ with ‘ideological’)

    Brett Mason@BrettMasonNews
    · 31m
    “We’re going down this ideological path (net zero emissions by 2050) which is not going to decrease the temperature of the earth by one iota” – Deputy Prime Minister @M_McCormackMP #auspol @SBSNews

  40. lizzie @ #1249 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 4:56 pm

    MickMack wouldn’t recognise his own “ideological path” if he fell over it.

    Andrew Giles MP
    @andrewjgiles
    22m
    Seriously? This is as embarrassing as it is depressing.
    (And that’s before we get to the replacement of ‘scientific, evidence based’ with ‘ideological’)

    Brett Mason@BrettMasonNews
    · 31m
    “We’re going down this ideological path (net zero emissions by 2050) which is not going to decrease the temperature of the earth by one iota” – Deputy Prime Minister @M_McCormackMP #auspol @SBSNews

    If every country on earth does it, it will.

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