At the top of the sidebar are links to guides I have up for three by-election campaigns currently in progress, including yesterday’s new addition:
• Queensland’s festival of democracy on March 28 looks set to receive a new attraction after Jo-Ann Miller’s announcement to parliament yesterday that she is resigning as member of the eastern Ipswich seat of Bundamba, effective immediately. After two decades as Labor member, Miller has grown increasingly estranged from her party over time, a particularly interesting manifestation of which was an appearance alongside Pauline Hanson on the campaign trail two days before the December 2017 state election. One Nation did not field a candidate against Miller in 2017, but has been quick to announce it has a candidate ready to go for the by-election, who will be announced on the weekend. Since Ipswich was the birthplace of the Hanson phenomenon, this could yet make the by-election more interesting than the 21.6% two-party margin suggests. Tony Moore of the Brisbane Times reports Steve Axe, Miller’s electorate officer, will contest the preselection, but Sarah Elks of The Australian reports the front runners are two candidates of the Left: Nick Thompson and Lance McCallum, who are respectively aligned with the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union and the Electrical Trades Union. I have a provisional by-election guide up and running which takes it for granted it will be held on March 28, though this is yet to be officially confirmed. Also on that day will be the Currumbin by-election and council elections, including for the big prizes of the Brisbane city council and lord mayoralty.
• Further on the by-election front, I had a paywalled piece in Crikey yesterday on the Greens preferences imbroglio in Johnston.
Legal matters:
• The Federal Court is hearing a Section 44 challenge against Josh Frydenberg relating to his Hungarian-born mother, which complainant Michael Staindl argues makes him a dual citizen. Frydenberg’s mother and her family fled the country in 1949 as its post-war communist regime tightened its grip on power, describing themselves as stateless on arrival in Australia. Staindl maintains that the whole family’s Hungarian citizenship rights were restored with the collapse of communism in 1949. Staindl is also pursuing defamation action against Scott Morrison over the latter’s claim that his action was motivated by anti-Semitism. The Australian ($) reports a decision is expected “within weeks”.
• In further legal obscurantism news, Emanuele Cicchiello has withdrawn from the race to fill Mary Wooldridge’s vacancy in the Victorian Legislative Council on the grounds that he once pleaded guilty to an offence carrying a prison term of more than five years – for improperly claiming a concessional train fare when he was 19. The Australian ($) reports that those remaining in the field are Asher Judah, former Property Council deputy director and Master Builders policy manager, and Matthew Bach, deputy director of Ivanhoe Girls Grammar.
FWIW I’m of the view that the next election is most definitely winnable for the ALP.
@doyley
The sort of voters who decide elections in Australia thanks to compulsory voting, are those who are very political disengaged and wont remember this pledge at the 2022 election. Especially given I am predicting by then Labor will be taking a ‘Green Fair Go’ with a Universal Jobs Guarantee to the election. The later would be especially attractive, because they often live in regions where unemployment is pretty high and job opportunities are limited.
Player One @ #1093 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 11:48 am
Labor’s fixing that by moving their policy focus to where the votes are. the saddle bag lead attitudes of people like you are a luxury we are learning to wean ourselves off.
I had a dream…
While looking for something else, I just found this very handy resource …
https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/climate-policies-of-major-australian-political-parties-v2.pdf
It includes a point-by-point comparison of all the major parties policies. Or at least – in the case of Labor – the ones they used to have.
Interestingly, it points out that both LNP and Labor were already committed to ‘net zero by 2050’.
Makes you wonder what all the fuss over Albo’s speech was about, doesn’t it?
I reckon you could play “Labor policy bingo” by checking off all the things that Labor gradually “re-commits” to over the next few months.
But, on reflection, purely as a media strategy, I guess that’s not so silly. At least it keeps the issues alive, and it also gives the punters the impression Labor are actually doing something.
Sanders has won Nevada.
Watching Sanders rally. He is a fierce advocate for teachers.
guytaur @ #1107 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 12:31 pm
Far too radical for ‘middle America’ so it goes…
Sanders
The Green New Deal will create 20 million new jobs.
Player One says:
Sunday, February 23, 2020 at 11:48 am
RI @ #1090 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 11:42 am
The problem in Australia is not merely that Labor will find it very difficult to win. The problem is bigger than that.
Indeed. The problem is that Labor no longer seems to know how to win.
This is not a statement of the problem. It is just blaming Labor. The indisputable historical reality is that Labor have won just 4 times from opposition in the last 103 years. On only one occasion did Labor form a durable multi-term Government. Once in a century. We talk about the probability of the occurrence of natural events – heatwaves, snowfalls, droughts, floods, fires, storms. The current Parliament is the 46th. Seven of these elections occurred prior to or during prior WW1. The probability that Labor will win from opposition since WW1 has been 4/39. The probability that such a win would lead to a multi term government is 1/4. So the chances that Labor win at all and the govern effectively are very small. One of the mathematicians can compute it for the bludgers.
If we applied the kind of Bayesian probability that 538 use, we would recognise that such poor odds mean the Green strategy, which is premised on power sharing but relies on hurting Labor, is absolutely doomed to failure.
We are at a picnic in Libkin Garden. We are completely fucked.
RI @ #1110 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 12:38 pm
Yes it is. Identifying the real problem is the first step to finding a solution.
Your problem is that you don’t want to find a solution. You just want to wallow in your own misery, and also drag everyone down to wallow with you.
P1
Strange. That’s exactly how I see your posts.
‘a r says:
Sunday, February 23, 2020 at 12:03 pm
Boerwar @ #1045 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 9:24 am
That would take around 60 million trees to sequester sequester the CO2 bottle equivalent.
So every Australian needs to plant ~2.2 trees? Sounds pretty doable.’
Maybe so for an inner urbs peeps who have no idea of what is involved.
For a start you would have take 600,000 ha of higher quality farmland out of production.
And it would be part of a cumulative need to offset everything from avos to housing footprint to personal cars.
The lack of any reality pervading the ‘Net’ part of Zero Net Emissions debate is palpable.
lizzie @ #1112 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 12:43 pm
The difference is that I’m not miserable 🙂
Player One @ #1114 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 12:44 pm
Oh, and that I actually do propose solutions. Just ones that the Labor partisans here don’t want to hear!
Sanders is going to create 20 million jobs for less than 10 million unemployed?
It’s a plan.
lizzie @ #1117 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 9:43 am
+1
😆 😆 😆
I’m not miserable. I’m being constructive. The historical record should be read and understood. While every election is in principle winnable, very few turn out that way for Labor. The notion that the next election will be ‘the one’ is false. It is a triumph of hope over experience. The current government is rubbish. But they are no worse than any other LNP Government.
We are enjoying ourselves in a picnic in Libkin Garden. This means the LNP will win. Get used to it. Reflect on it. Stop blaming Labor. Do something to make a difference.
lizzie @ #1112 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 12:43 pm
+1 Million! 😆
RI @ #1118 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 12:49 pm
Now, that’s funny!
insiders is a putrid waste of time, imo, but if spears were to interview steggall i’d watch it for that. i wonder if he’d adjust his style for a north shore laidy. -a.v.
https://www.zalisteggall.com.au/climate_change_national_framework_for_adaptation_and_mitigation_bill_2020#
RI @ #1117 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 12:49 pm
To make a difference voters need to back Enviro-Indys and the Greens party to gain the balance of power.
Thank you BK. Your Dawn Patrol is magnificent and it means I can read all the relevant news without trawling through the www.
Anyone with complaints please refer them t0 me. I will crochet their foreskin into a wristband.
C@tmomma @ #1124 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 9:50 am
Are you one million people? 🙂
PuffyTMD @ #1123 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 12:52 pm
What if they’re female?
No … don’t answer … I don’t think I want to know …
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1124 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 12:53 pm
No, the number represents the level of enthusiasm for the on point nature of lizzie’s comment. Don’t you do levels?
P 1
I don’t see that saying “Labor don’t know how to win” is providing solutions.
The generality of Australian voters are suspicious of education, lazy, self-indulgent and overly respectful of their “betters”. It has always been thus.
The image of the larrikin Aussie, contemptuous of authority, knockabout, friendly and broadminded is a myth, perpetuated in movies from Gallipoli to Crocodile Dundee. But who are the heroes there? Rough, uncultured, under-educated men, cynical about improving themselves, and dream of one day living living the easy life even as they fight for the Bosses.
When I was a kid we were told about how Blaxland, Lawson and Wentworth made it to Mt Victoria and saw the endless grassy plains for the taking. Later on it was gold that made the economy. Then silver, lead and zinc. Then iron ire, and now coal. All of them unimproved, dug up or ploughed where they lay, for our betters in England, America or Asia to process and turn into true wealth. Australia, for all its modern history has relied on raw materials, having little curiosity about what can be done with them.
We leave it to those in authority to make those kinds of decisions. From the Rum Corps to the Business Council we have not only admired the ruling class, but assured to be part of it (with no hope except statistical of getting there).
Our betters make money from our labours. The assumption is that these people, our bosses, “know how to manage money”.
That’s why we vote for the Liberals so often. We think they are better and smarter than us, and hope that one day some of that class and prosperity will rub off… or trickle down.
Diogenes:
Re. The utility of character references in a criminal setting:
As said previously, references are worth little, especially with respect to historical child sexual abuse, where they’ve occurred in an institutional setting, the breach of trust being something that a court considers particularly egregious. Kehoe, in a professional sense, was probably very good as an athletics coach; but he had one very serious shortcoming: a propensity for grooming. In short, many with paedophiliac tendencies inveigle themselves with the victim and often, the victim’s immediate family. And it should also be said that at age 59, it’s highly doubtful that his offending was a one 0ff incident.
To his credit, the former head of St. Kevin’s admitted he erred in providing Kehoe with a testimonial at his sentencing hearing; then, under a good deal of pressure, doing the right thing by resigning. The deputy head, too, resigned for not taking action when approached by a counsellor with allegations that some staff were acting inappropriately with students – both putting St Kevin’s reputation above the well-being of students, in non-observance of the findings of the RC into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse.
It goes without saying that no one is compelled to provide another with a character reference. But Russell seemed to have no compunction with providing Kehoe with a one, until, that is, it became public. Generally, but with some exceptions, references mean little in a legal setting; I’ve never seen a bad one. I would add that both Bolt and Henderson aplogised to the complainant for their inappropriate remarks, the former saying he was “ghastly” misrepresented. He would say that, wouldn’t he(?). He should’ve STFU.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/i-m-really-sorry-to-you-paris-andrew-bolt-apologises-to-st-kevin-s-abuse-survivor
Good to see both Malcolm Turnbull and Tim Dunlop get it about Insiders.
Too lazy to consider policy, and the urgent need to develop it, the Insiders just take tired old talking points, used at every election since 2010, and run with them. If all else fails talk about “appearances”, aka “The Politics”, aka “How we will frame the issues and write them up.”
So much easier to gossip about who’s up who, than discuss issues in depth.
It’s as if there’ll never be another drought, no more fires will burn, no more floods or dry rivers. Coral bleaching is for nerds, and pity about the extinctions. Or that we haven’t just experienced all of the above in just the last few months. All that matters is what this or that faction wants, and how it will look.
Speers hosting Insiders is a terrible mistake if he keeps going down this track.
When people look back at Speers career they will mark the start of the decline as being when he lost Bushfire Bill on Pollbludger. Mark my words !
lizzie @ #1127 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 12:58 pm
I have suggested several solutions. Must I re-state them in every post?
Firstly, they have an example of a party that does know how to win. If Labor want to win, they need to learn from the tactics the LNP use so effectively. Sure, they can’t use all of them. But just doing the same thing next time as they did last time but expecting it to work this time around is … well, pointless is putting it politely.
I have said this many times now. Ever since right after the last election.
Secondly, Labor now have a detailed analysis of their own recent loss. But it is clear that many can’t even be bothered to read it let alone learn from it.
I have said this many times.
Thirdly, Labor need to learn how to work with the other minor parties, and stop just slagging off at them.
I have said this many times also.
Do you want more suggestions?
ALP supporters need to harden up, Albo has made a substantial policy and is now being challenged to explain it, so fricken what Albo should be up to explaining the global capital trends away from fossil fuels and towards sustainability and it shouldn’t be hard to explain it as there is substantial material to work with or is the ALP expecting an easy ride.
“Firstly, they have an example of a party that does know how to win. If Labor want to win, they need to learn from the tactics the LNP use so effectively. ”
So Labor should be dishonest and corrupt in order to win?
Roger Miller @ #1135 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 1:35 pm
Is this a trick question? 🙂
What exactly are “the tactics the LNP use so effectively ”?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-23/tim-smith-calls-for-bettina-arndt-to-be-stripped-of-am/11992082
I always thought Tim Smith was a total knob….but sometimes even knobs can be sane…..
PS. He is still a knob.
Roger
They are playing the role of reactionary conservatives protecting the status quo. The ALP needs to use the growing mountain of evidence from bank after bank and from regulator after regulator to explain why doing nothing is worst than doing something. The ALP needs to highlight the sovereign risk of inaction.
P1:’Labor needs to work with the other minor parties, and stop just slagging off at them.
What struck me about this comment is that ‘slagging of’ Labor is all you seem to do.
Am I misremembering but weren’t there lotsa posts on here about Speers interview with Morrison on Insiders, that were essentially along the lines of ‘Rah, rah,rah, way to go Speers”.
Roger Miller @ #1137 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 1:38 pm
Gosh, this could be a long list …
First, they are not afraid of issues. They don’t pussy foot around an issue because they might offend some small portion of their base. They are willing to tackle any issue head on, even if they are lying or wrong.
Second, they are not afraid to criticize their opponents. They play hardball, and they play for keeps.
Third, they understand that there is a significant percentage of Australians who are basically greedy and stupid. And they cater to those.
Do you want more? No, they’re not nice strategies. But they are winning strategies.
Peg
Some ALP supporters are thin skinned when it comes to any challenge.
P1
One thing that must be remembered — after an election, media tends to get policy amnesia and wipe the slate clean for oppositions especially.
They fail to remember the detail or nuance, thus we get the return of gotchas and talking points being used to try and trip up political leaders.
It irks me, but they are probably reflecting the greater electorate, who seem to be rather forgetful when convenient. Unless, of course, things turn bad.
So lying and pandering to rent seekers?
PeeBee @ #1140 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 1:43 pm
So you think Labor is a minor party? Actually, given how their primary vote is trending, that’s a fair call … if perhaps a little premature.
Climate change is real, action on it needed to happen about two decades ago…but apparently it’s better to wait around for Labor to come up with an ideal policy or for the Greens to come to power, than it is to face the reality that, in the short term, there are two options —
1. Putting enough pressure on the CURRENT government – the one who can waltz into Parliament in the next couple of weeks, saying to Zali, “You call that a policy? THIS is a policy…” – to commit to more effective, more meaningful action on climate change…
If you think there’s going to be no difference between a Labor and a Liberal government on this, this is the most sensible course of action for you.
OR
2. Realising (that reality thing again) that that is highly unlikely to happen and backing Labor (adding all the codicils you want to about how they should be going harder and going further).
That doesn’t mean giving up on your party one day gaining government. Indeed, if adopting more ambitious targets on climate change is (as we’re told incessantly it will) win more seats for Labor, it will win more seats for whoever adopts it. Although that it’s mildly astonishing that the Greens haven’t picked up more seats, given those predictions (oh, sorry – their vote increased in Queensland by 0.44%, so they’re on the path to victory..), I’m placing my trust in them.
If you’re truly non partisan, truly want action on climate change, truly unblinkered, truly understanding what is real and what is unicorn fodder, then it’s a no brainer.
Roger Miller @ #1135 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 1:35 pm
Roger Miller @ #1145 Sunday, February 23rd, 2020 – 1:46 pm
The implicit assumption in these questions is that these things are not happening already.
Not too many people would accept that as a premise.
Anthony Albanese says coal mining could continue in Australia in a net zero emissions world
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-23/labor-backs-2050-global-carbon-emissions-targets/11991912
Roger
In a democracy everyone is a rent seeker.