New Hampshire Democratic primary live commentary

Live commentary on today’s New Hampshire primary. Also: Sinn Féin upsets the conservative duopoly at Saturday’s Irish election. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont

4:05pm Thursday With all precincts reporting, there were almost 297,000 votes in this year’s Democratic primary, up from just over 253,000 in 2016.  So Democratic turnout in New Hampshire was well up on 2016, but this is partly explained by having an uncontested Republican race.

The final outcome is Sanders 25.7%, Buttigieg 24.4%, Klobuchar 19.8%, Warren 9.2% and Biden 8.4%.

8:18pm Conversation article up.  I argue that Klobuchar has a good case for being electable.  She won her three Minnesota Senate races by at least 20 points, far exceeding the presidential lean of Minnesota.  She’s 59, so she doesn’t fall into the 70+ category.

Also, the FiveThirtyEight forecast has the chance that nobody wins a pledged delegate majority up to 33% (one in three).  We could be heading for the first contested convention since 1952.  The next two contests are the Feb 22 Nevada caucus and Feb 29 South Carolina primary.  Then it’s Super Tuesday on March 3.

3:05pm Two US TV networks have CALLED the New Hampshire primary for Bernie Sanders.

2:50pm With 82% in, Sanders’ lead over Buttigieg down to 1.7%.  The NY Times Needle gives him a 68% chance to win.  Hardly a convincing victory in a state where he crushed Clinton 60-38 in 2016.

2:22pm Sanders’ lead over Buttigieg down to 2.1% with 69% in.  The NY Times Needle gives Sanders a 59% chance to win.

2:07pm Took a break for lunch, but didn’t miss much.  Sanders 2.5% ahead of Buttigieg with 64% in (26.4% to 23.9%).  Klobuchar has 20.1%, and both Biden and Warren have less than 10%, and will both miss the 15% threshold to win any NH delegates.

1:02pm CNN has Sanders still ahead in NH by 4.4% over Buttigieg with 41% in.

1pm The NY Times needle is now giving Sanders just a 53% chance to win, with 33% for Buttigieg and 14% Klobuchar.  However, Wasserman on Twitter is projecting Klobuchar will finish third.

12:47pm The NY Times needle is giving Sanders a 59% chance of winning, with Buttigieg a 33% chance and Klobuchar 8%.  But for some reason, CNN’s results are more up to date than the NY Times.

12:37pm With 32% in in the Dem primary, 27.8% Sanders, 23.5% Buttigieg, 20.0% Klobuchar.  Gap opening up between Buttigieg and Klobuchar for 2nd place.  Warren and Biden still at less than 10%.

12:35pm In the Republican primary, Trump has 85%.

12:25pm Dave Wasserman on Twitter

12:17pm 28% Sanders, 23% Buttigieg, 21% Klobuchar with 20% in on the CNN results.

12:12pm 28% Sanders, 22.5% Buttigieg, 20.5% Klobuchar, less than 10% for both Warren and Biden in CNN results with 17% in.

12:05pm CNN is back ahead of the NY Times, and has 28% Sanders, 22% Buttigieg, 20% Klobuchar, 9% Warren, 9% Biden with 14% in.

12pm With 7% in, 28% Sanders, 22% Buttigieg, 20% Klobuchar, 12% Warren, 7.5% Biden.  US election analysts on Twitter are saying Sanders should win.

11:50am With 5% reporting, the NY Times has 30% Sanders, 22% Buttigieg, 18% Klobuchar, 12% Warren and just 7% Biden.

11:40am The CNN New Hampshire results give Sanders 27%, Klobuchar 22%, Buttigieg 21%, Warren just 11% and Biden 8%.  That’s with an estimated 3% in.  So Klobuchar has had a massive surge in New Hampshire.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The final RealClearPolitics poll average for today’s New Hampshire Democratic primary gives Bernie Sanders 28.7%, Pete Buttigieg 21.3%, Amy Klobuchar 11.7%, and Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren both 11.0%. Most polls close at 11am AEDT, with some staying open until 12pm. Unlike Iowa, New Hampshire is a primary, not a caucus. Primaries are administered by the state’s election authorities, not by a party. Counting is slow in New Hampshire.

 Sinn Féin comes first in Irish election

 Irish politics has been dominated by two conservative parties: Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. But at Saturday’s election, the far-left Sinn Féin upset this order by coming first on first preferences with 24.5% (up a massive 10.7% since the 2016 election). Fianna Fáil was second with 22.2% (down 2.1%) and the governing Fine Gael third with 20.9% (down 4.7%). The Greens won 7.1% (up 4.4%). Irish Labour has never been a strong party, and won just 4.4% (down 2.2%).

While Sinn Féin advocates a united Ireland, its success at this election appears to be the result of a campaign focused on homelessness and hospital waiting lists.

Despite winning the popular vote, Sinn Féin was second in lower house seats with 37 of the 160 (up 14). Fianna Fáil won 38 (down six), Fine Gael 35 (down 14), the Greens 12 (up ten), other left-wing parties 17 (up one) and independents 19 (steady). There were two more total seats than in 2016. A Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael grand coalition would have 73 seats, short of the 81 needed for a majority. Government formation is likely to be difficult.

In Tasmania’s Hare-Clark system, which is used in Ireland, leakage from within parties has occasionally cost seats. In Ireland, leakage is a bigger problem, as the ballot paper lists candidates alphabetically, not by party grouping (see Antony Green). To reduce leakage, Sinn Féin only nominated 42 candidates, and were unable to benefit as much as they should have from their late campaign surge.

Previous Irish elections have been held during the working week, but this one was on Saturday. Turnout was expected to increase, but it actually fell 2.2% to 62.9%.

610 comments on “New Hampshire Democratic primary live commentary”

  1. Cat – don’t get me wrong, I couldn’t give a toss what Mayor Pete (or anyone else) does in the sheets, but you and I are not most people. To be sure, attitudes to homosexuality have changed beyond recognition over the last 30 years or so, and it could well be the case that enough people are enlightened enough to look past it, or even embrace it, when voting for President. But surely even you can see that assumption is not a given?

  2. Then along comes Bloomberg with three write in (out of five) votes cast in the legendary Dixville Notch. Not many votes but very newsworthy given the location.

    Dixville Notch, NH: Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s shadow over the Democratic presidential race grew a bit longer on Tuesday after his surprise write-in win in a hamlet that traditionally kicks off voting in New Hampshire’s closely watched primary election.

    The billionaire businessman, who is skipping the first four state nominating contests as part of a long-game strategy to win the party’s nomination to face Republican President Donald Trump in the November 3 election, received three of the five votes cast after the stroke of midnight by Dixville Notch residents.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/michael-bloomberg-turns-heads-with-write-in-win-in-new-hampshire-hamlet-20200212-p54006.html

  3. Buttigeig definitely gives off a shallow style-over-substance vibe much of the time, but when he’s not trying to echo ’08 Obama with all his vague talk of “new ways” and “meeting the moment” and instead actually discusses policy, he can be quite impressive. Unfortunately, he and his campaign definitely seem to have decided that the former rather than the latter is the way forward – though given recent political history and his own performance so far, they may well be right! Trump certainly didn’t win on substance, after all.

  4. Matt
    You may not know but a turning point for the Varadkar Government was a proposal in early January by the Justice Minister to hold a commemorative service for the Royal Irish Constabulary. The uproar was pronounced particularly when it was pointed out that the Black and Tans were an auxiliary of the RIC. The ceremony did not go ahead but SF had a talking point

  5. Hugoaugogo @ #151 Wednesday, February 12th, 2020 – 2:36 pm

    Cat – don’t get me wrong, I couldn’t give a toss what Mayor Pete (or anyone else) does in the sheets, but you and I are not most people. To be sure, attitudes to homosexuality have changed beyond recognition over the last 30 years or so, and it could well be the case that enough people are enlightened enough to look past it, or even embrace it, when voting for President. But surely even you can see that assumption is not a given?

    Oh, for sure. However, I will admit, and it will probably be brought up like a fur ball about me forever and a day, lol, but I was uneasy in 2008 that America would EVER elect an African American as President, but they did, so I remain to be pleasantly surprised this time around as well.

  6. sprocket_ “Trump was a feel good candidate with no track record. Broke the mould.”

    He certainly had no political track record (and a massively overrated business record as well), but he wasn’t a “feel good” candidate in the sense I’m talking about: he was more along the lines of “I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take it any more, so I’ve voting outside the mainstream.”

    What I mean by a “feel good” candidate is a besuited white male aged between 35 and 50 from a professional or business background who is relative latecomer to politics and who can thereby present himself as a bit of a political outsider. He uses lots of soothing platitudes around trying to heal divides, looking to the future, bringing people together, etc, etc.

    Buttigieg is the latest one to come off the production line, earlier models including Macron, Rudd (although he was a bit more eccentric than the norm), Blair, etc. And Obama came from the same cultural and professional background, although his decision to identify as an African-American made him far less bland than the others mentioned.

  7. meher baba @ #159 Wednesday, February 12th, 2020 – 2:41 pm

    sprocket_ “Trump was a feel good candidate with no track record. Broke the mould.”

    He certainly had no political track record (and a massively overrated business record as well), but he wasn’t a “feel good” candidate in the sense I’m talking about: he was more along the lines of “I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take it any more, so I’ve voting outside the mainstream.”

    What I mean by a “feel good” candidate is a besuited white male aged between 35 and 50 from a professional or business background who is relative latecomer to politics and who can thereby present himself as a bit of a political outsider. He uses lots of soothing platitudes around trying to heal divides, bringing people together, etc, etc.

    Buttigieg is the latest one to come off the production line, earlier models including Macron, Rudd (although he was a bit more eccentric than the norm), Blair, etc. And Obama came from the same cultural and professional background, although his decision to identify as an African-American made him far less bland than the others mentioned.

    Klobuchar comes across as way more authentic than Buttigieg (in my opinion) which will probably be a disadvantage for her in the US.

  8. “Oh, for sure. However, I will admit, and it will probably be brought up like a fur ball about me forever and a day, lol, but I was uneasy in 2008 that America would EVER elect an African American as President, but they did, so I remain to be pleasantly surprised this time around as well.”

    ***

    Mmmm but then 8 years later we all thought America would have it’s first female president…

  9. ‘Vote Blue no matter who!’
    The Judiciary alone justifies this. RBG will surely be up for replacement soon. I wonder though if a dem wins but the republicans keep the senate, will they have an excuse to block hearings for 4+ years?

  10. OC

    Ha ha very funny; Sinn Fein publications are certainly not my thing! News Letter and BT much more so, although both are well to the right of my views economically.

    Yes, well aware of the RIC uproar. Certainly gave SF a talking point as you say; how much it impacted the result who knows, but they certainly seemed to gain momentum at the time.

  11. NH turnout now exceeding 2016, with 82% in..

    FASTEST NH Primary Results – Total of 82.49% reporting

    Sanders: 25.86%
    Buttigieg: 24.12%
    Klobuchar: 19.81%
    Warren: 9.46%
    Biden: 8.69%
    Steyer: 3.51%
    Gabbard: 3.22%
    Yang: 2.88%

    Total votes cast so far: 249,504

    Full results here: results.decisiondeskhq.com

  12. Bonza @ #161 Wednesday, February 12th, 2020 – 3:00 pm

    ‘Vote Blue no matter who!’
    The Judiciary alone justifies this. RBG will surely be up for replacement soon. I wonder though if a dem wins but the republicans keep the senate, will they have an excuse to block hearings for 4+ years?

    Bonza, the Impeachment Acquittal of Trump is a mighty tool for Democrats to wield against Senate Republicans in November.

  13. Bernie claims victory. Says tonight is “beginning of the end for Donald Trump”. Massive crowd is going nuts and is barely letting him speak lol.

    Bernie! Bernie! Bernie!

  14. meher baba @ #156 Wednesday, February 12th, 2020 – 1:41 pm

    Buttigieg is the latest one to come off the production line, earlier models including Macron, Rudd (although he was a bit more eccentric than the norm), Blair, etc. And Obama came from the same cultural and professional background

    You forgot Trudeau.

    One thing those names you mentioned (and Trudeau) have in common is they all won. Which is the main thing the Democrats need right now; to win.

    They can try to inspire, excite, and reform later. Getting Trump out is Job #1.

  15. Bernie has now won the first two contests in the nomination process. Ominously for centrists, there is no single candidate emerging as a clear alternative to Sanders. There are too many centrist vanity projects in this race for any one centrist to win the nomination. It is very likely that no centrist will emerge victorious in any of the four contests in February. And then on Super Tuesday Michael Bloomberg will siphon away votes from other centrists, enabling Sanders to win the bulk of those contests.

  16. Excellent to see Sanders clinch New Hampshire, albeit closer than I expected. Still, turn out looks a fair bit higher than in 2016 which is good also. On to South Carolina, Nevada and Super Tuesday!

  17. ar: I think a large part of Trudeau’s appeal comes from his surname. His father was one of the most impressive ever political leaders in any country, in any era. In my view, Justin isn’t in the ballpark, or even the same league. But he’s got the same surname, and some of his father’s charm. And also some of his mother’s good looks.

    And I reckon just about any Liberal leader would have defeated the insipid Tory candidate who ran against Justin in the recent election.

  18. All the really poor losers are turning up here. I’m not really into these inanities but “winners are grinners (and the losers can make their own arrangements)” as opposed to this nonsensical “losers are the new winners”.

  19. I wonder if Mayor Pete’s speech tonight was a “I’d like to be VP nomination if I don’t get the presidential nomination.”

    There seems to be a fair bit of love between all of the contenders, Trump is uniting them on that theme…

  20. C@tmomma @ #194 Wednesday, February 12th, 2020 – 3:44 pm

    Bonza @ #182 Wednesday, February 12th, 2020 – 3:37 pm

    Sanders struggling along in first place…

    Just. Not great for the Senator with greater name recognition than anyone else and who represents the State of Vermont next door.

    Oh jeez, stop your whining, you’re sounding pathetic. Maybe you could just leave it at a ‘well done’. Sanders was extremely generous towards the other candidates when he spoke and Buttigieg was gracious towards Sanders.

  21. Alpha Zero @ #192 Wednesday, February 12th, 2020 – 3:42 pm

    I wonder if Mayor Pete’s speech tonight was a “I’d like to be VP nomination if I don’t get the presidential nomination.”

    There seems to be a fair bit of love between all of the contenders, Trump is uniting them on that theme…

    There does indeed, it’s a pity that a bit of it doesn’t rub off on some of the more petty Bludgers.

  22. Bellwether @ #191 Wednesday, February 12th, 2020 – 3:47 pm

    C@tmomma @ #194 Wednesday, February 12th, 2020 – 3:44 pm

    Bonza @ #182 Wednesday, February 12th, 2020 – 3:37 pm

    Sanders struggling along in first place…

    Just. Not great for the Senator with greater name recognition than anyone else and who represents the State of Vermont next door.

    Oh jeez, stop your whining, you’re sounding pathetic. Maybe you could just leave it at a ‘well done’. Sanders was extremely generous towards the other candidates when he spoke and Buttigieg was gracious towards Sanders.

    Could you please stop being so abusive towards me, personally!?! ‘Whining’!?! ‘You’re sounding pathetic’!?! What gives you the right to speak to me that way!?!

    And, of course the candidates were gracious towards each other, they’re trying to build a unified coalition of Democrat voters to go up against Trump, no matter who the nominee is, so they don’t want to alienate anyone. However, that seems to be beyond your comprehension ability.

  23. Re Klobuchar: as an ex-prosecutor, one strategy her opponents can use against her in the southern states is to point to cases where she and/or her office was supposedly harsh on African-Americans.

    This has already started to some extent. I’m not really sure how damaging the tactic will be for her. Despite all the noise made by Black Lives Matter, etc., I think there are plenty of African-Americans who are not politically active beyond the ballot box and who are quietly in favour of a bit of the ol’ Laura Norder.

    But, now that she’s had such an unexpectedly good result in NH, you can expect to hear a lot about these things, especially the Myon Burrell case and also some prosecutions of Somali immigrants for possessing qat.

  24. C@tmomma @ #192 Wednesday, February 12th, 2020 – 3:48 pm

    Bellwether @ #186 Wednesday, February 12th, 2020 – 3:41 pm

    Kakuru @ #186 Wednesday, February 12th, 2020 – 3:36 pm

    I know C@t. This is a terrible result for Sanders.

    OMG you are fucking kidding me!!!!!!!!

    Yep, eking out a 1.6% win in 2020 cf a 59% win in 2016 is just awesome by Sanders! 😆

    Why are you grinning when your preferred candidate lost? From my experience that’s the sort of thing people do when they’re getting a bit unhinged.

  25. Bellwether @ #193 Wednesday, February 12th, 2020 – 3:49 pm

    Alpha Zero @ #192 Wednesday, February 12th, 2020 – 3:42 pm

    I wonder if Mayor Pete’s speech tonight was a “I’d like to be VP nomination if I don’t get the presidential nomination.”

    There seems to be a fair bit of love between all of the contenders, Trump is uniting them on that theme…

    There does indeed, it’s a pity that a bit of it doesn’t rub off on some of the more petty Bludgers.

    There you go again. Mr High and Mighty, who has been a Bludger for all of 2 ups! You really are demonstrating an over-inflated opinion of your opinion. Not that your actual opinions, when you’re not abusing Bludgers, are actually very perceptive.

  26. Bellwether @ #196 Wednesday, February 12th, 2020 – 3:55 pm

    C@tmomma @ #192 Wednesday, February 12th, 2020 – 3:48 pm

    Bellwether @ #186 Wednesday, February 12th, 2020 – 3:41 pm

    Kakuru @ #186 Wednesday, February 12th, 2020 – 3:36 pm

    I know C@t. This is a terrible result for Sanders.

    OMG you are fucking kidding me!!!!!!!!

    Yep, eking out a 1.6% win in 2020 cf a 59% win in 2016 is just awesome by Sanders! 😆

    Why are you grinning when your preferred candidate lost? From my experience that’s the sort of thing people do when they’re getting a bit unhinged.

    Yep, Pete lost…with, as a r points out, exactly the same number of Delegates as Bernie ended up getting. How could I have been so stupid, huh? Bernie won by the length of the straight! Albeit a very short straight of about 5000 votes out of about a quarter of a million:

    Candidate Pct. Votes Del.
    Sanders 26.0 % 71,410 9
    Buttigieg 24.4 67,044 9
    Klobuchar 19.7 54,244 6
    Warren 9.3 25,612 0
    Biden 8.4 23,022 0

    Total votes from 89.3% of precincts 274,785

    Though I imagine, if Bernie Sanders had won by 1 vote, you’d still tout that as awesome. 😐

  27. C@tmomma @ #198 Wednesday, February 12th, 2020 – 3:56 pm

    Bellwether @ #193 Wednesday, February 12th, 2020 – 3:49 pm

    Alpha Zero @ #192 Wednesday, February 12th, 2020 – 3:42 pm

    I wonder if Mayor Pete’s speech tonight was a “I’d like to be VP nomination if I don’t get the presidential nomination.”

    There seems to be a fair bit of love between all of the contenders, Trump is uniting them on that theme…

    There does indeed, it’s a pity that a bit of it doesn’t rub off on some of the more petty Bludgers.

    There you go again. Mr High and Mighty, who has been a Bludger for all of 2 ups! You really are demonstrating an over-inflated opinion of your opinion. Not that your actual opinions, when you’re not abusing Bludgers, are actually very perceptive.

    I’m not really expressing an opinion here today other than that the reaction of you and Kakuru to a win, whoever’s win that might be, is quite bizarre. It’s actually quite unAustralian to immediately attack a winner in my book.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *