All the fun of the fair

Leadership action for two parties at the second tier of federal politics, dates confirmed for Queensland and Northern Territory by-elections, and the Liberals choose a successor for Cory Bernardi’s Senate seat.

Party leadership developments:

• Barnaby Joyce has announced he will contest the Nationals leadership when the party room holds its first meeting on the resumption of parliament this morning, with a view to deposing Michael McCormack, who replaced Joyce him after his resignation in February 2018. This follows the opening of the deputy leadership position after Bridget McKenzie resigned from cabinet on Sunday over her handling of grants to sports clubs while serving as Sports Minister before the election. Joyce has two confirmed supporters out of a party room of 21, most notably Matt Canavan, who also quit cabinet yesterday (while also taking the opportunity to concede a loan under the North Australia Infrastructure Facility Act, over which he has ministerial oversight, had been given to an NRL club of which he was a registered supporter). The other is Wide Bay MP Llew O’Brien, who will move the spill motion that will vacate the leadership position if it gets the required 11 votes. Sharri Markson of News Corp reports claims Joyce has precisely that many votes, but this does not seem to be the majority view: a Seven News reporter related a view that Joyce had about seven, while an unnamed Liberal MP told The Australian ($) Joyce would not get “anywhere near” winning. David Littleproud, Keith Pitt and David Gillespie will all nominate for the deputy position, with Littleproud rated the favourite.

• Richard Di Natale announced yesterday that he was quitting both the Greens leadership and would shortly leave the Senate, saying he wished to spend more time with his family. Every indication is that he will be succeeded this morning by the party’s sole member of the House of Representatives, Melbourne MP Adam Bandt. The Australian ($) reports there are “discussions under way” for Queensland Senator Larissa Waters to take on a new role as party leader in the Senate”. Di Natale will remain in parliament pending the party’s process for choosing his replacement, which is likely to take several months. There is only the vaguest of speculation at this point as to who the successor might be.

By-election news:

• It has been confirmed the Queensland state by-election for the Gold Coast state seat of Currumbin, to be vacated with the resignation of Liberal National Party member Jann Stuckey, will be held on March 28, the same day as the state’s council elections. The selection of lawyer Laura Gerber as LNP candidate has fuelled Stuckey’s attacks on the party, on the basis that she was chosen by the party’s state executive rather than a vote of local members, and that this reflected a determination for the seat to be contested by “a skirt”. Among the reasons for Stuckey’s alienation from the party is that her own favoured successor, Chris Crawford, was blocked by the party’s vetting committee last year. The LNP has held the seat since 2004, currently on a margin of 3.3%.

• The date for the Northern Territory by-election in the Darwin seat of Johnston has been set for February 29. The seat is being vacated with the retirement of Labor member Ken Vowles after a period of estrangement from the party and its leader, Chief Minister Michael Gunner. The seat will be contested by Joel Bowden for Labor; Josh Thomas for the Country Liberals; Steven Klose for the Territory Alliance, the new party associated with former CLP Chief Minister Terry Mills; and Aiya Goodrich Carttling for the Greens. Labor has held the seat since its creation in 2001, currently on a margin of 14.7%.

Preselection news:

• South Australia’s Liberals have chosen a factional moderate, Andrew McLachlan, to fill the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Cory Bernardi. McLachlan has served in the state’s Legislative Council since 2014, and been the chamber’s President since the 2018 election. Tom Richardson of InDaily reports McLachlan won 131 out of 206 votes in the ballot of state council members to 51 for former Law Council of Australia president Morry Bailes and 24 for former state party treasurer Michael Van Dissel, both of whom are associated with the Right. Bailes’ weak showing in particular amounted to an “epic defeat” for hard right forces including Boothby MP Nicolle Flint and Barker MP Tony Pasin.

• Another looming federal redistribution in Victoria, whose population boom will again entitle it to an extra seat, has set off a round of turf wars within the ALP, highlighted by a scuffle that broke out at a branch meeting last week. This reportedly followed the arrival of 100 supporters of Labor Right powerbroker Adem Somyurek at a branch meeting held at the Hoppers Crossing home of Jasvinder Sidhu, a Socialist Left preselection aspirant, who was allegedly assaulted after telling the group to leave. Somyurek is said have designs for his faction on the seat of Lalor, held formerly by Julia Gillard and currently by Joanne Ryan, which the party’s once stable factional arrangements reserved for the Left. According to a Labor source quoted in The Age, the Right has secured control of branches in the Calwell electorate and is likely to take the seat when the Left-aligned Maria Vamvakinou retires, while the Left is seeking to gain leverage by putting pressure on Right-aligned Tim Watts in Gellibrand.

Also, the Nine/Fairfax papers are reporting on an Ipsos poll of 1014 respondents concerning climate change, which is apparently part of an annual series conducted by the pollster, with no information provided as to who if anyone might commission it. While the poll records a high pitch of concern about climate change, it does not find this to be at a greater height than last year (somewhat at odds with the recent finding of Ipsos’s Issue Monitor series, which recorded a post-bushfire surge in concern about the environment), and actually records an increase in the number of respondents who had “serious doubts about whether climate change is occurring”: from 19% two years ago to 22% last year to 24% this year.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,663 comments on “All the fun of the fair”

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  1. If Trump loses the election I would be worried about what he could do between election day and inauguration day. That’s about two months for him to create murder and mayhem.

    He would be in an incredibly foul mood should he lose the election and there is no telling what he might try to do.

  3. EGT

    Thorium was originally touted as a solution to the limited supply of Uranium. What we got instead was fast breeder reactors using Sodium as a coolant. They had technological issues and never took off purely because of economic reasons. Meanwhile the “problem” of availability of Uranium went away. In part because nuclear energy didn’t achieve the scale everyone thought it would. In part because we discovered more Uranium ore.

    Thorium has enjoyed a renewed interest in the context of molten salt reactors. The necessary chemical processing can then be done outside the reactor. But its still complex. What you end up with is U233 which itself can be diverted into bomb making (yes, there’s lots of clever solutions for this but they are all complicated).

    In the end, Thorium is just another fuel and it really doesn’t solve the big problem. Nuclear is too expensive.

  4. Simon Katich @ #2552 Saturday, February 8th, 2020 – 6:05 pm

    ar – your post makes it look like I said that about Buttigieg.

    I haven’t said that and also don’t agree with it

    Okay, I edited in the lines, which I guess indicate quotation? What’s the original source though? I tried doing a ‘Ctrl + F’ for that text, and didn’t get any hits prior to the post I quoted from there.

  5. Good news on the Orroral fire in the ACT.

    The Orroral Valley Fire is at an ADVICE level bushfire warning.

    The Orroral Valley Fire is being controlled, meaning effective strategies are being implemented and planned for the entire perimeter of the fire.

    The fire is approximately 86,562 Ha in size.

    Milder temperatures and an increase in humidity are assisting in fire suppression efforts. ESA is taking this time to plan and prepare for containment operations that will take place next week.

    https://esa.act.gov.au/orroral-valley-fire-advice-4pm-08022020

  8. a r

    Which ‘they’? The ~33% who still opposed marriage equality in 2018? That’s even smaller than Trump’s rusted-on base of rabid RWNJ’s, and very likely a subset of that same cohort.

    Is that 33% of eligible voters, or 33% of actual voters.

    It makes a huge difference!

  9. E. G. Theodore

    Ah Tepco, the company that gave us Fukushima. What could possibly go wrong ?

    What a stupid comment…

    Because ?????? They were the owners of the place so they might just have a teensy little bit of responsibility. BTW at the time I was a TEPCO approved LNG analyst 😆 Love(d) the company 😉

  12. Brexit. Scottish independence.

    Big game of rugby tonight (3am local). England v Scotland. The best bit will be at the start – the crowd singing the Flower of Scotland.

    Set your alarms peeps!

  13. poroti
    Saturday, February 8th, 2020 – 7:11 pm
    Comment #2556

    KayJay

    Now that you are here and as a person of the correct vintage I ask you this How did my old school do in their 2017 version of Benny Goodman’s Sing Sing Sing ?

    Excellent clips.

    Clip 1: You forgot to post the correct response. Very noisy.

    Clip 2: Victor Borge – simply wonderful.🎹

  17. Rex Douglas
    says:
    Saturday, February 8, 2020 at 7:36 pm
    If he’s fair dinkum I expect Speers to tear Marles to shreds.
    __________________
    Richard Marles is the answer to the question: what would it be like if someone who went to Geelong Grammar became deputy leader of the ALP.

    There is nothing else of interest about him.

  18. Simon Katich
    Och man, what I would give to hear Bill McLaren commenting on “Doddy Weir ” again 🙁 . Bestest ever ever sports commentator RIP 🙁

  19. Cud Chewer

    Why does TEPCO need an LNG analyst?

    Because the Tokyo electric power company . aka TEPCO , is not just a nuclear power station owner. Darwin LNG is a thing because of them. 2

  21. Chewer

    Why does TEPCO need an LNG analyst?

    They burn a lot of LNG…

    Poroti – I apologise for calling your comment “stupid”; given your knowledge of TEPCO since the disaster it would be more appropriate to term it “completely inexplicable”

  24. Cud Chewer
    OMG if only I could transmit the stress of having the TEPCO company representative sitting on my shoulder during so many GC runs 😆 How strict were they I hear you ask ? Mr Watenabe the local chap was cool but when he rang head office he, on the phone, stood to attention and bowed many times as he said ‘Hai”. Top marks to him though he chose, unusually for his company, to become a resident of Australia and he and his family are now ‘Strayans .

  28. poroti
    says:
    Saturday, February 8, 2020 at 8:16 pm
    nath
    My Mr Watenabe was cool as. Feck WWII.
    __________________
    Oh I agree. But I’d be much rather dealing with them about LNG than trying to kill each other!

  30. nath

    But I’d be much rather dealing with them about LNG than trying to kill each other!

    True but at the time my arse was on the line and even MS Excel’s inherent error did not cut the mustard, such was the level they expected.

  31. I’ve never done business with the Japanese. Although I did once have a Japanese exchange student stay with us. I’ve dealt with the Chinese. They love long lunches as much as I do.

  34. Yes it is I who said ‘they’ won’t vote for a gay man. I’m saying there is a few percentage points of the US electorate who would normally vote Democrat but would not vote for a gay man (might for a Lesbian). It’s not polite to mention this (Nate Silver who is gay has). But if we are talking about psephologigal factors as opposed to ideological ones you need to take this into account.

  39. Digby @ #2584 Saturday, February 8th, 2020 – 8:34 pm

    Yes it is I who said ‘they’ won’t vote for a gay man. I’m saying there is a few percentage points of the US electorate who would normally vote Democrat but would not vote for a gay man (might for a Lesbian). It’s not polite to mention this (Nate Silver who is gay has). But if we are talking about psephologigal factors as opposed to ideological ones you need to take this into account.

    And if you listen to the conversation between Pete Buttigieg and Rachel Maddow you will find out that after Mayor Pete came out at the age of 33, in Indiana with Mike Pence as Governor, he was re-elected with an increased majority.

  40. Cud Chewer @ #2553 Saturday, February 8th, 2020 – 7:10 pm

    EGT

    Thorium was originally touted as a solution to the limited supply of Uranium. What we got instead was fast breeder reactors using Sodium as a coolant. They had technological issues and never took off purely because of economic reasons. Meanwhile the “problem” of availability of Uranium went away. In part because nuclear energy didn’t achieve the scale everyone thought it would. In part because we discovered more Uranium ore.

    Thorium has enjoyed a renewed interest in the context of molten salt reactors. The necessary chemical processing can then be done outside the reactor. But its still complex. What you end up with is U233 which itself can be diverted into bomb making (yes, there’s lots of clever solutions for this but they are all complicated).

    In the end, Thorium is just another fuel and it really doesn’t solve the big problem. Nuclear is too expensive.

    A rather intellectually uninformed comment from someone I thought would have informed themselves better.

    Maybe you should read this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pebble-bed_reactor

    Firstly to address the ‘but submarines’ argument:

    Adams Atomic Engines
    AAE went out of business in December 2010.[25] Their basic design was self-contained so it could be adapted to extreme environments such as space, polar and underwater environments. Their design was for a nitrogen coolant passing directly though a conventional low-pressure gas turbine,[26] and due to the rapid ability of the turbine to change speeds, it can be used in applications where instead of the turbine’s output being converted to electricity, the turbine itself could directly drive a mechanical device, for instance, a propeller aboard a ship.

    Like all high temperature designs, the AAE engine would have been inherently safe, as the engine naturally shuts down due to Doppler broadening, stopping heat generation if the fuel in the engine gets too hot in the event of a loss of coolant or a loss of coolant flow.

    The concept is proven. Revival of it for submarines shouldn’t be a problem.

    A pebble-bed power plant combines a gas-cooled core and a novel packaging of the fuel that dramatically reduces complexity while improving safety.

    … The pebble design is relatively simple, with each sphere consisting of the nuclear fuel, fission product barrier, and moderator (which in a traditional water reactor would all be different parts). Simply piling enough pebbles together in a critical geometry will allow for criticality.

    The pebbles are held in a vessel, and an inert gas (such as helium, nitrogen or carbon dioxide) circulates through the spaces between the fuel pebbles to carry heat away from the reactor. Pebble-bed reactors need fire-prevention features to keep the graphite of the pebbles from burning in the presence of air if the reactor wall is breached, although the flammability of the pebbles is disputed. Ideally, the heated gas is run directly through a turbine.

    And most importantly this:

    The reactor is cooled by an inert, fireproof gas, so it cannot have a steam explosion as a light-water reactor can. The coolant has no phase transitions—it starts as a gas and remains a gas. Similarly, the moderator is solid carbon; it does not act as a coolant, move, or have phase transitions (i.e., between liquid and gas) as the light water in conventional reactors does. Convection of the gas driven by the heat of the pebbles ensures that the pebbles are passively cooled[citation needed].

    A pebble-bed reactor thus can have all of its supporting machinery fail, and the reactor will not crack, melt, explode or spew hazardous wastes. It simply goes up to a designed “idle” temperature, and stays there. In that state, the reactor vessel radiates heat, but the vessel and fuel spheres remain intact and undamaged. The machinery can be repaired or the fuel can be removed. These safety features were tested (and filmed) with the German AVR reactor.[6] All the control rods were removed, and the coolant flow was halted. Afterward, the fuel balls were sampled and examined for damage – there was none.

    This is what I’m talking about.

  41. Digby @ #2584 Saturday, February 8th, 2020 – 7:34 pm

    Yes it is I who said ‘they’ won’t vote for a gay man. I’m saying there is a few percentage points of the US electorate who would normally vote Democrat but would not vote for a gay man (might for a Lesbian). It’s not polite to mention this

    It’s fine to mention it, and probably even true to some extent. But I think you’re overstating it.

    At a minimum I think the “would vote Democrat but won’t vote for a black man” cohort is larger, and was overcome in 2008 and 2012. Also the “would vote Republican but won’t vote for Trump and may turn up to vote for a halfway palatable Democratic candidate in 2020” cohort shouldn’t be discounted.

  42. Poroti,
    Right back at you –
    Yat-Kha
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHYbOaw4PiU&list=PLX8Q3lNBEllagje6ADrnlw1fLzojWBQIP&index=4&t=0s
    and
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_umnspiUic&list=PLX8Q3lNBEllagje6ADrnlw1fLzojWBQIP&index=15

    Nath,
    I’ve always enjoyed watching Heat ever since it first came all those years ago, it’s one those rare films, for me at least, that has well and truly survived multiple viewings. Here’s the end track for one of my favourite Romero films
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hl3_bkALOZQ

    It’s a play loudly track much like “Run with the Wolf” and “Stargazer” and dog knows how many other tracks from the hard rock and heavy metal of the 70’s.

  49. “it can be used in applications where instead of the turbine’s output being converted to electricity, the turbine itself could directly drive a mechanical device, for instance, a propeller aboard a ship.”

    Interesting C@t. Hadn’t heard of a “pebble reactor” before. My main criteria for judging that would be reactor safety and amount of waste produced. Need to consider ALL the costs of the cycle.

    On subs and leveraging defense funds for development of something more useful, there are other considerations in sub design that would probably mean any reactor is better installed as generator unit charging batteries and driving a main, electric motor. Don’t need the same power density / size in the reactor as you need for a direct turbine drive, easier to design for shock resistance and quietness / stealth and thrust response.

    Only advantage may be for raw speed but torpedoes are always going to be faster than subs so stealth more important. 🙂 Batteries for subs are also getting MUCH better to the extent its now debatable whether on a “conventional” sub its worth using AIP or just bigger and better battery banks?? Nuclear has its place for stealthy endurance though.

    Me, i think that nuclear for domestic / industrial power is, as cud says, pushing it uphill in simple $ terms against the rapid advance and cost reductions we are seeing in renewables / storage at scale.

    For Australia I think probably a better path is to leverage our vast spaces to do solar electricity, export that regionally AND distribute onshore by the kind of long undersea cables being discussed at the moment. Do onshore power storage by converting to ammonia / hydrogen (also usable as transport fuel and can be exported). I’d love to see enough investment in charging infrastructure for our road transport to go all electric, but reckon in Oz we will go something like ammonia/electric hybrid.

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