Party leadership developments:
• Barnaby Joyce has announced he will contest the Nationals leadership when the party room holds its first meeting on the resumption of parliament this morning, with a view to deposing Michael McCormack, who replaced Joyce him after his resignation in February 2018. This follows the opening of the deputy leadership position after Bridget McKenzie resigned from cabinet on Sunday over her handling of grants to sports clubs while serving as Sports Minister before the election. Joyce has two confirmed supporters out of a party room of 21, most notably Matt Canavan, who also quit cabinet yesterday (while also taking the opportunity to concede a loan under the North Australia Infrastructure Facility Act, over which he has ministerial oversight, had been given to an NRL club of which he was a registered supporter). The other is Wide Bay MP Llew O’Brien, who will move the spill motion that will vacate the leadership position if it gets the required 11 votes. Sharri Markson of News Corp reports claims Joyce has precisely that many votes, but this does not seem to be the majority view: a Seven News reporter related a view that Joyce had about seven, while an unnamed Liberal MP told The Australian ($) Joyce would not get “anywhere near” winning. David Littleproud, Keith Pitt and David Gillespie will all nominate for the deputy position, with Littleproud rated the favourite.
• Richard Di Natale announced yesterday that he was quitting both the Greens leadership and would shortly leave the Senate, saying he wished to spend more time with his family. Every indication is that he will be succeeded this morning by the party’s sole member of the House of Representatives, Melbourne MP Adam Bandt. The Australian ($) reports there are “discussions under way” for Queensland Senator Larissa Waters to take on a new role as party leader in the Senate”. Di Natale will remain in parliament pending the party’s process for choosing his replacement, which is likely to take several months. There is only the vaguest of speculation at this point as to who the successor might be.
By-election news:
• It has been confirmed the Queensland state by-election for the Gold Coast state seat of Currumbin, to be vacated with the resignation of Liberal National Party member Jann Stuckey, will be held on March 28, the same day as the state’s council elections. The selection of lawyer Laura Gerber as LNP candidate has fuelled Stuckey’s attacks on the party, on the basis that she was chosen by the party’s state executive rather than a vote of local members, and that this reflected a determination for the seat to be contested by “a skirt”. Among the reasons for Stuckey’s alienation from the party is that her own favoured successor, Chris Crawford, was blocked by the party’s vetting committee last year. The LNP has held the seat since 2004, currently on a margin of 3.3%.
• The date for the Northern Territory by-election in the Darwin seat of Johnston has been set for February 29. The seat is being vacated with the retirement of Labor member Ken Vowles after a period of estrangement from the party and its leader, Chief Minister Michael Gunner. The seat will be contested by Joel Bowden for Labor; Josh Thomas for the Country Liberals; Steven Klose for the Territory Alliance, the new party associated with former CLP Chief Minister Terry Mills; and Aiya Goodrich Carttling for the Greens. Labor has held the seat since its creation in 2001, currently on a margin of 14.7%.
Preselection news:
• South Australia’s Liberals have chosen a factional moderate, Andrew McLachlan, to fill the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Cory Bernardi. McLachlan has served in the state’s Legislative Council since 2014, and been the chamber’s President since the 2018 election. Tom Richardson of InDaily reports McLachlan won 131 out of 206 votes in the ballot of state council members to 51 for former Law Council of Australia president Morry Bailes and 24 for former state party treasurer Michael Van Dissel, both of whom are associated with the Right. Bailes’ weak showing in particular amounted to an “epic defeat” for hard right forces including Boothby MP Nicolle Flint and Barker MP Tony Pasin.
• Another looming federal redistribution in Victoria, whose population boom will again entitle it to an extra seat, has set off a round of turf wars within the ALP, highlighted by a scuffle that broke out at a branch meeting last week. This reportedly followed the arrival of 100 supporters of Labor Right powerbroker Adem Somyurek at a branch meeting held at the Hoppers Crossing home of Jasvinder Sidhu, a Socialist Left preselection aspirant, who was allegedly assaulted after telling the group to leave. Somyurek is said have designs for his faction on the seat of Lalor, held formerly by Julia Gillard and currently by Joanne Ryan, which the party’s once stable factional arrangements reserved for the Left. According to a Labor source quoted in The Age, the Right has secured control of branches in the Calwell electorate and is likely to take the seat when the Left-aligned Maria Vamvakinou retires, while the Left is seeking to gain leverage by putting pressure on Right-aligned Tim Watts in Gellibrand.
Also, the Nine/Fairfax papers are reporting on an Ipsos poll of 1014 respondents concerning climate change, which is apparently part of an annual series conducted by the pollster, with no information provided as to who if anyone might commission it. While the poll records a high pitch of concern about climate change, it does not find this to be at a greater height than last year (somewhat at odds with the recent finding of Ipsos’s Issue Monitor series, which recorded a post-bushfire surge in concern about the environment), and actually records an increase in the number of respondents who had “serious doubts about whether climate change is occurring”: from 19% two years ago to 22% last year to 24% this year.
C@t
Well, I’ll skip to the bottom line here. Nuclear will almost certainly never be cost effective against solar/wind/battery/pumped-hydro. Solar and wind are approaching maturity. Batteries still have a lot of room for cost reduction. Pumped hydro is a very mature technology – it all depends on site specifics. But there is no shortage of good sites.
To bring the cost of nuclear down you need to do one thing. Reduce the physical scale and cost of containment. Designs that use water for coolant and use solid fuel you can draw a line through right now. There are only two reactor concepts that in my view have any hope of delivering on cost.
One of those is the Moltex Stable Salt Reactor.
https://www.moltexenergy.com/
– High energy density core.
– Uses molten salt fuel under relatively low pressure so compact containment.
– Avoids the issues inherent to other molten salt reactors (pumped fuel, chemical processing).
– Plays well with a grid that is mostly renewable (uses thermal storage).
The other is the Elysium Industries Molten Chloride Salt Fast Reactor
http://www.elysiumindustries.com/
– Not as high energy density core but modular energy take off
– Uses molten salt fuel. Requires chemical processing but relatively simple.
– Again is very safe compared to pressurised water reactors and has a small(er) containment.
There are also a bunch of other reactor concepts being pushed by vendors that are plain rubbish. Things like NuScale. Yes, they are more technology ready, but they also generally rely on water and solid fuel. Modularity is not going to buy major cost savings for them despite their hype. Water as a coolant guarantees large containments.
Now of the two reactor concepts I’ve mentioned, both require some development (no huge research/development issues, but they do need to go pilot stages, approvals, etc.) And lets face it, you won’t see these in Australia until its well proven overseas. You’re talking 15+ years before we in Australia would see an operating reactor and that’s probably optimistic.
And here’s the real killer. Even their own projections for cost land them in the zone where they would be competitive with new coal fired power today. Only in 15 years the technology of solar/wind/battery will have moved on – and batteries will be vastly better than they are now. In other words, its chasing a moving target.
Bottom line here is the chances of your premise coming true are all but zero. Oh and Thorium is just another fuel. Both of these reactors I just mentioned can use Thorium, but they can also burn spent nuclear fuel and they can also burn regular Uranium – many times more efficiently than present solid fuel designs. They make the problem of waste a lot easier by having only a tiny fraction of it and having very little in the way of long lived transuranics (stuff that is still dangerous thousands of years from now).
If it were me, I’d avoid getting Labor mired in the whole nuclear thing. What Labor should be doing is having a far more robust policy platform regarding energy storage. Particularly pumped hydro and home batteries. (Yes I’m aware that Shorten had a good policy on that last bit).
———
. If Biden doesn’t recover, they won’t go for Buttigieg because he’s gay. Maybe Klobuchar but I doubt it (if you disagree go on betfair where you can get 300:1 about her winning the Presidency
———
Brother, I am already on that horse.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/new-csiro-aemo-study-confirms-wind-solar-and-storage-beat-coal-gas-and-nuclear-57530/
Well worth reading and following through to the original sources.
Simon Katich @ #2498 Saturday, February 8th, 2020 – 6:08 pm
Trump’s gonna win.
You can see it coming from here.
He’ll almost certainly win bigger than ’16
Make the adjustment now.
What’s the betting on the gay guy?
Here is today’s hard copy of the SmearStralian – with the column on the right written to smear the ALP.
Tragically, the man subject to the smear committed suicide.
Sprocket
Federal governments unfortunately deal with the AMA despite it representing a small % of the profession
From the 1980s until relatively recently the AMA was captured by Bruce Shepherd and his nominees including Brendon Nelson and Karen Phelps ( both of whom claimed an early allegiance to the ALP).
Shepherd was more interested in doctors’ remuneration than patient welfare and of an extremely conservative social bent. He crushed any progressive movement within the AMA
rhwombat @ #2487 Saturday, February 8th, 2020 – 5:54 pm
ex-politician
———
Both of these reactors I just mentioned can use Thorium, but they can also burn spent nuclear fuel
———
And despite a very positive endorsement of a nuclear waste facility in SA by a Royal Commission, a “citizens f’ing panel” said no to peeps paying big dollars to give us this fuel source.
sprocket:
Sad that he died. It reminds me of a local man here who was facing child sex abuse charges and he killed himself before the matter could go to court. He had a premininary hearing, but not the full thing.
C@t
Ah Tepco, the company that gave us Fukushima. What could possibly go wrong ? 😆
SK
With my ABT hat on (Anyone But Trump), I have to say that Bernie may head the ticket. If he’s smart, he’ll take a Mid West gal as running mate.
And if she’s smart, VeeP to a first term 78 year old with heart issues is a good gig.
Oh thanks for that cheerful news rhwombat…
——— Trump’s gonna win.———
There is no fun in betting on the favourite.
sprocket
Is Bloomberg out of the running for VP?
———
What’s the betting on the gay guy?
———
After Iowa, the arse fell out of that market.
mundo
It probably means nothing to you, but Kerryn Phelps is on the Sydney City Council, and making a push for Lord Mayoral robes.
We think she is a politician.
Cud
Bloomberg is not running for VeeP
mundo @ #2504 Saturday, February 8th, 2020 – 6:15 pm
Don’t you just love insipid fair weather friends?
Sprocket, I am on the lookout for good odds on Klobuchar/Warren for the Whitehouse. I would probs box that ticket.
poroti @ #2511 Saturday, February 8th, 2020 – 6:19 pm
What a very conservative thing to say, poroti. Don’t you believe that people can learn from their mistakes?
I finally got it! Amy Klobuchar reminds me of Archie Bunker’s wife! Well her voice does. 😆
The SportsBet market on the US election has some intriguing novelty bets…
All in betting, Others on request+
Donald Trump 1.57
Bernie Sanders 6.00
Michael Bloomberg 8.00
Joe Biden 13.00
Pete Buttigieg 13.00
Elizabeth Warren 34.00
Andrew Yang 51.00
Hillary Clinton 81.00
Amy Klobuchar 101.00
Mike Pence 101.00
Michelle Obama 151.00
Tom Steyer 151.00
Tulsi Gabbard 151.00
Condoleezza Rice 201.00
Evan McMullin 201.00
Mitt Romney 201.00
Nikki Haley 201.00
Ted Cruz 201.00
Marco Rubio 276.00
John Kasich 501.00
Or Doris from ‘Everybody Loves Raymind’.
Which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. 🙂
I still can’t quite believe how f’ed up the Coronaviris response has been by institutions and individuals tasked with protecting our country from pandemics.
They were completely unprepared for the start of school response. Did they not realise how many kids immediately travelling from Wuhan would be returning to school? They waited until well into day 1 or 2 of school to release advice it was perfectly fine for kids from Wuhan could go to school. No worries.
Then, less than a week later, people returning from Wuhan would have to go to Xmas f’ing island.
These peeps on big 6 figure sums seem completely unaccountable for a shambolic, clueless cluster f.
Are only plebs on low incomes held responsible these days?
C@tmomma @ #2521 Saturday, February 8th, 2020 – 6:26 pm
Have you … ever?
C@t I’m not sure I can find that article on Tepco.
What I can tell you is that Thorium is over-hyped. It doesn’t really buy you any cost savings and the main reason for that is that fuel is only a small cost component of building and running a nuclear plant.
sprocket, I did my dough on Kasich last time. Even 500-1 ain’t tempting me… not even pre senate acquittal .
You gotta be betting on a Trump heart attack or….. worse.
C@t
You really have to ask if there are some people who do not learn from their mistakes ? Spoiler alert. There are. Their systems totally fucked up. A reflection of the company culture. Something that does not change daily.
Oh and “conservative thing to say” ? FMD it is a reality based comment that ‘Fukushima” was a Tepco tang. Basing anything on reality is a most unconservative thing to say in today’s world.
Trump will be the Republican nominee unless he’s dead or otherwise incapacitated.
There is some good betting value if Dotard does get run over by the Pennsylvania Ave bus..
Nikki Haley and Mitt Romney at 201.00?
Haters gotta hate.
P1
‘… or perhaps with Paul Harcher, who said much the same thing just yesterday.’
Pretty sure I made the same criticism of him!
A failure to understand something as basic about the Labor party as its normal post lost election timeframes should disqualify someone from covering federal politics.
Alas, it doesn’t.
Sad thing is lizzie is that that if Albo does go small target he’s going to lose votes from not having an EV policy.
Cud Chewer
I do find this all a little inexplicable. If a policy is the right one, stick with it.
Confessions:
You evince a remarkable lack of familiarity with the concept of “Weekend at Bernie’s”
sprocket:
Real Time panel discussed the possibility of Romney being co-opted as a Democrat running mate. This was quickly dismissed but perhaps someone like Kasich might be a better example of across-the-aisle partnership.
What a stupid comment…
How do we know Trump isn’t an actor paid by Putin already? 🙂
EGT:
I was actually thinking that as I posted!
Confessions @ #2530 Saturday, February 8th, 2020 – 3:36 pm
Fixed that for you. 😉 😆
Lizzie, now why would the SmearStralian be boosting Tesla? Something to do with this Tesla board member?
Investors
Biography
James Murdoch
James Murdoch has served as a director since 2017. Mr. Murdoch is currently Chief Executive Officer of 21st Century Fox (21CF). Before becoming CEO of 21CF in 2015, Mr. Murdoch held a number of leadership roles at the company over a two-decade career. He previously served as its Co-Chief Operating Officer, Chairman and CEO for Europe and Asia, as well as Chairman of BSkyB, Sky Deutschland, and Sky Italia, the businesses that now comprise Sky plc. He also served as CEO of BSkyB and STAR, India’s entertainment leader. In addition to being a key driver of 21CF’s domestic and international expansion, Mr. Murdoch has been instrumental in the company’s robust social impact initiatives, including its decade-long leadership on environmental sustainability. James and his wife, Kathryn Murdoch, are founders of a family foundation, Quadrivium, which supports initiatives involving natural resources, science, civic life, childhood health, and equal opportunity.
Independent Director
Member of the Nominating and Governance Committee
Member of the Audit Committee
Member of the Disclosure Controls Committee
https://ir.tesla.com/board-directors/james-murdoch
Dan P:
Trump is not going to jail while he’s still President.
Confessions @ #2530 Saturday, February 8th, 2020 – 6:36 pm
It would take a Fox & Friends video of him ass-f#*king an underage dog to unseat him.
———
I finally got it! Amy Klobuchar reminds me of Archie Bunker’s wife! Well her voice does.
———
Was he a character on Friends? Or Seinfeld?
Simpson’s?
Bellwether
Now there is a deepfake challenge 🙂
Then
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/police-minister-denies-grabbing-arm-of-17-year-old-during-alleged-road-rage-incident-20191108-p538kr.html
Now
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/nsw-facing-biggest-rainfall-since-1990s/news-story/128626db2c32e7b82e08c18b57fc2033
Mr. Elliott may be just the man to assist with boofheadery rehabilitation.
Anyone for underwater cricket ❓ ☔🏏☔
A major problem with the “Thorium-Uranium” process is that it is very difficult to use in submarines, which historically have been the key driver of the technology (and provided a very large amount of the $$$s)
The conventional process used in nuclear submarines “burns” fuel. Hence these reactors have to be refueled every 15-25 years when they run low. This is easily accommodated (nuclear boats typically have a lifetime twice the length of the period before the mid lief refuelling ).
The “Thorium-Uranium” process produces by-products, so have the issue that these by-products have to be taken off (and stored somewhere on the boat in the interim). Perhaps taken out after every mission? (not feasible) There are other complications too, but the bottom line is “not on nuclear subs”. The implication is that the development would need to be funded without significant input from the DoD budget, which makes it extremely difficult to progress.
There is a national security argument to develop a second nuclear power technology as long term risk management initiative, but the argument’s made much easier of that technology can easily be applied to nuclear subs (in fact anything that can be applied to nuclear subs is a reasonable long term bet).
Simon Katich @ #2499 Saturday, February 8th, 2020 – 5:08 pm
Which ‘they’? The ~33% who still opposed marriage equality in 2018? That’s even smaller than Trump’s rusted-on base of rabid RWNJ’s, and very likely a subset of that same cohort.
An essay on the costs of “Green Extractivism”.
“Deep in the salt flats of Chile lies the extractive frontier of the renewable energy transition.”
https://logicmag.io/nature/what-green-costs/
Thea Riofrancos is an assistant professor of political science at Providence College. She is the author of Resource Radicals: From Petro-Nationalism to Post-Extractivism in Ecuador and the co-author of A Planet to Win: Why We Need a Green New Deal.