All the fun of the fair

Leadership action for two parties at the second tier of federal politics, dates confirmed for Queensland and Northern Territory by-elections, and the Liberals choose a successor for Cory Bernardi’s Senate seat.

Party leadership developments:

• Barnaby Joyce has announced he will contest the Nationals leadership when the party room holds its first meeting on the resumption of parliament this morning, with a view to deposing Michael McCormack, who replaced Joyce him after his resignation in February 2018. This follows the opening of the deputy leadership position after Bridget McKenzie resigned from cabinet on Sunday over her handling of grants to sports clubs while serving as Sports Minister before the election. Joyce has two confirmed supporters out of a party room of 21, most notably Matt Canavan, who also quit cabinet yesterday (while also taking the opportunity to concede a loan under the North Australia Infrastructure Facility Act, over which he has ministerial oversight, had been given to an NRL club of which he was a registered supporter). The other is Wide Bay MP Llew O’Brien, who will move the spill motion that will vacate the leadership position if it gets the required 11 votes. Sharri Markson of News Corp reports claims Joyce has precisely that many votes, but this does not seem to be the majority view: a Seven News reporter related a view that Joyce had about seven, while an unnamed Liberal MP told The Australian ($) Joyce would not get “anywhere near” winning. David Littleproud, Keith Pitt and David Gillespie will all nominate for the deputy position, with Littleproud rated the favourite.

• Richard Di Natale announced yesterday that he was quitting both the Greens leadership and would shortly leave the Senate, saying he wished to spend more time with his family. Every indication is that he will be succeeded this morning by the party’s sole member of the House of Representatives, Melbourne MP Adam Bandt. The Australian ($) reports there are “discussions under way” for Queensland Senator Larissa Waters to take on a new role as party leader in the Senate”. Di Natale will remain in parliament pending the party’s process for choosing his replacement, which is likely to take several months. There is only the vaguest of speculation at this point as to who the successor might be.

By-election news:

• It has been confirmed the Queensland state by-election for the Gold Coast state seat of Currumbin, to be vacated with the resignation of Liberal National Party member Jann Stuckey, will be held on March 28, the same day as the state’s council elections. The selection of lawyer Laura Gerber as LNP candidate has fuelled Stuckey’s attacks on the party, on the basis that she was chosen by the party’s state executive rather than a vote of local members, and that this reflected a determination for the seat to be contested by “a skirt”. Among the reasons for Stuckey’s alienation from the party is that her own favoured successor, Chris Crawford, was blocked by the party’s vetting committee last year. The LNP has held the seat since 2004, currently on a margin of 3.3%.

• The date for the Northern Territory by-election in the Darwin seat of Johnston has been set for February 29. The seat is being vacated with the retirement of Labor member Ken Vowles after a period of estrangement from the party and its leader, Chief Minister Michael Gunner. The seat will be contested by Joel Bowden for Labor; Josh Thomas for the Country Liberals; Steven Klose for the Territory Alliance, the new party associated with former CLP Chief Minister Terry Mills; and Aiya Goodrich Carttling for the Greens. Labor has held the seat since its creation in 2001, currently on a margin of 14.7%.

Preselection news:

• South Australia’s Liberals have chosen a factional moderate, Andrew McLachlan, to fill the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Cory Bernardi. McLachlan has served in the state’s Legislative Council since 2014, and been the chamber’s President since the 2018 election. Tom Richardson of InDaily reports McLachlan won 131 out of 206 votes in the ballot of state council members to 51 for former Law Council of Australia president Morry Bailes and 24 for former state party treasurer Michael Van Dissel, both of whom are associated with the Right. Bailes’ weak showing in particular amounted to an “epic defeat” for hard right forces including Boothby MP Nicolle Flint and Barker MP Tony Pasin.

• Another looming federal redistribution in Victoria, whose population boom will again entitle it to an extra seat, has set off a round of turf wars within the ALP, highlighted by a scuffle that broke out at a branch meeting last week. This reportedly followed the arrival of 100 supporters of Labor Right powerbroker Adem Somyurek at a branch meeting held at the Hoppers Crossing home of Jasvinder Sidhu, a Socialist Left preselection aspirant, who was allegedly assaulted after telling the group to leave. Somyurek is said have designs for his faction on the seat of Lalor, held formerly by Julia Gillard and currently by Joanne Ryan, which the party’s once stable factional arrangements reserved for the Left. According to a Labor source quoted in The Age, the Right has secured control of branches in the Calwell electorate and is likely to take the seat when the Left-aligned Maria Vamvakinou retires, while the Left is seeking to gain leverage by putting pressure on Right-aligned Tim Watts in Gellibrand.

Also, the Nine/Fairfax papers are reporting on an Ipsos poll of 1014 respondents concerning climate change, which is apparently part of an annual series conducted by the pollster, with no information provided as to who if anyone might commission it. While the poll records a high pitch of concern about climate change, it does not find this to be at a greater height than last year (somewhat at odds with the recent finding of Ipsos’s Issue Monitor series, which recorded a post-bushfire surge in concern about the environment), and actually records an increase in the number of respondents who had “serious doubts about whether climate change is occurring”: from 19% two years ago to 22% last year to 24% this year.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,663 comments on “All the fun of the fair”

Comments Page 47 of 54
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  1. It’s vital that the ALP be cleansed of all Shorten related paraphernalia. Of course it would be good if he would go, but being unemployable he will hang on to Maribyrnong until he’s carried out.

  3. Scout:

    Is Trump pro-life? I know he attended that rally recently and declared himself to be, but that isn’t really consistent with his attitudes in the past.

  4. What is absolutely clear is that there can be NO change in direction on climate, ‘personal freedom’ or transparency/corruption while the LNP is in power here (& Trump in US) – yet those shouting loudest are always lumping ALP (or Dems) into the conservative camp, thus guaranteeing no change.

    Those of the hard left might have the best policies when analysed fully BUT it is the centre left or the centre right who always get to govern. Right now the conservative side is becoming MORE conservative while in power because those on the left can’t stop squabbling with each other.

    So, there’s a choice:

    Keep berating the centre-left for not being left ‘enough’ and you guarantee we will have right wing govts;

    or, shut-up about the cente-left and attack the right — the actual enemy — and then when the centre-left is in power, start dragging them further left (which is exactly what is happening on the right). That is how we got our short-lived carbon pricing, after all.

  6. Trump’s attitudes are what he says they are on any particular day … and may change moment-to-moment.

    I’m willing to bet he has paid for his share of abortions over the years if his predilection for pretty young women with large breasts is anything to go by

  7. Pegasus says:
    Saturday, February 8, 2020 at 10:36 am
    These waters off Tasmania’s east coast are warming up to four times faster than global average

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-08/tasmania-east-coast-warming-four-times-global-average/11889628

    The warming of the oceans results in the development of hypoxic and anoxic conditions in their surface layers. This renders life impossible for many species and in particular is destroying the phytoplankton biomass. The phytoplankton produce 75% of the oxygen available in the atmosphere and the ocean. Since WW2 the phytoplankton biomass has declined by 40%. If this continues most life on the planet will be at risk. Arresting this is very urgent.

  8. Some ‘sage’ advice :

    Then we come to the moderately interesting Greens leadership change. New Leader Adam Bandt announced yesterday that he wants Australia to become a “green energy superpower”. Which is a good thing — even commendable!

    I have long wanted a villa on the Riviera, but even if I ever can afford one, the rising sea level may have other plans.

    Most Australians want action on climate change, but it’s just not going to happen so long as they also keep voting for the Coalition.

    And Adam’s list of wants is unlikely to amount to much unless he changes the way in which his party goes about things. As long as the Greens continue to fight with the Labor Opposition, the only likely outcome for Australia is more of the same, since feuding between the progressive parties only delivers more election wins for the Coalition.

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/leadership-spills-and-coal-smudged-deals,13568

  9. frednk @ #2226 Saturday, February 8th, 2020 – 8:57 am

    I looks as if the only thing that is going to pull this corona virus up is a vaccine, and all these restrictions on travel are just trying to hold the tide back until it is developed.

    What are the anti vaxa’s going to do?

    With due deference to BB’s sensibilities, I don’t agree . Information, Public Health/behavioural and limited containment strategies will be the primary control mechanisms outside epidemic areas for at least 6 months, by which stage even nCoVA pandemic in the Northern hemisphere winter will be waning in China the face of the war -scale mobilisation they are undertaking. Japan & S. Korea will be similar, but I’m not as sure about Singapore, Indonesia etc. Australia is as safe as anywhere, as is transit by air with appropriate personal precautions (gel your hands frequently and wear a mask to stop you touching your own mouth). Do not get on the floating viral culture systems called ships unless you have to (that’s how the 1919 influenza pandemic (which probably originated in the USA) killed more people than any subsequent ‘flu pandemics).

    A non-experimental vaccine is more than ~6 months (+/- exactly 3.14159…for BB’s required level of certainty) away, and the mobilised Chinese medical-social-engineering-industrial complex will be first and foremost in development. The vaccines (there will be several) will first be used for front line HCW in China, then for a ring containment strategy in high risk populations. We anxious laowai will have to wait until the vaccines are available for convenience users who don’t want to bother with the non-sexual equivalent of a wearing a condom.

  10. Good point Confessions, don’t think he has any convictions as such – just self promotion.
    More reason to be disgusted at the evangelicals and other religious groups who jump on his bandwagon.

    Do not think he has any attitude or beliefs except for pro trump

  11. Confessions @ #2298 Saturday, February 8th, 2020 – 11:29 am

    Tom:

    That may be so but I’ve still read and seen interviews with evangelical people who are not the loudmouths or within their church hierarchy who still continue to support Trump. Most of them justify it with ‘but the courts and the judges!’, while others simply say that he deserves another term to fully implement his agenda.

    I cannot fathom how people who are supposedly devoutly religious can look away from all his anti-religious transgressions.

    Being a loudmouth and and being shallow are not necessarily mutually exclusive. There are many in the public sphere that profess to have Christian beliefs, but certainly do not display or support Christian values. Claiming to be Christian is a vote winner after all. I think that when you stated “people who are supposedly devoutly religious…: alludes to this well with the use of the word ‘supposedly’..

    ScoMo anyone…

  12. People will insist the answer to the current malaise is a federal anti-corruption body?
    It will be the ONLY policy the ALP will need at the next Election!.

  14. Re Confessions @11:32. ”Is Trump pro-life? I know he attended that rally recently and declared himself to be, but that isn’t really consistent with his attitudes in the past.”

    I don’t think that he cares about the issue but he has adopted the pro-life stance to support an alliance of convenience with the Evangelicals.

  15. Jenauthor

    Spot on.
    It’s why I believe what happens in the US will inform how we proceed going forward with respect to climate change in particular

  16. ‘This act is criminal’: legal experts break down how Trump broke the law by firing the Vindman brothers

    Legal experts believe the actions could be a violation of federal law.

    “It seems trivial to mention it at this point, but retaliation against a witness is a federal crime,” explained former U.S. Attorney Joyce Vance, who is an MSNBC legal analyst.

    “I worked for a DOJ that prosecuted people who retaliated against witnesses,” she noted.

    Former Southern District of New York (SDNY) federal prosecutor and CNN analyst Jennifer Rodgers agreed it is “witness retaliation.”

    Prominent Republican attorney George Conway also offered his thoughts.

    “What normally happens when a public official retaliates against a witness who testified about the public official’s criminal conduct is that the public official goes to prison,” Conway posted on the president’s favorite social networking platform.

    CNN analyst and former prosecutor Elie Honig said it was “witness retaliation” under 18 USC 1513.

    “This act is criminal, vindictive, and petty – and nobody in Trump’s orbit will do a damn thing about it,” Honig predicted.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/02/this-act-is-criminal-legal-experts-break-down-how-trump-broke-the-law-by-firing-the-vindman-brothers/

  17. Jenauthor

    You lost me with describing the Labor party as being “centre-left”. Since its election loss, Albanese under Labor is signalling it will be going rightward as it ditches and walks back from policies it had before the 2019 election.

    The political “centre” moves; it’s all relative.

    The Greens Party is centre-left. Labor is not.

    BW and his fellow travellers like to bang on about the “extreme left” Greens but its policies do not reflect this misrepresentation.

  19. #FridayNightMassacre trends as Trump fires impeachment witnesses: ‘The mad king puts another head on a pike’

    #FridayNightMassacre Donald Trump is taking revenge on those who had the courage to speak against him. Lt. Col. Vindman, his twin brother also a Lt. Col., Ambassador Sondland. Trump is now free to rule as the despot he aspired to be. The GOP have sold us to Donald Trump.

    There you go, @SenatorCollins, your very own #FridayNightMassacre. I guess he learned his lesson. He learned that you Republicans have given him carte blanche to continue to crime, crime and crime some more!

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/02/fridaynightmassacre-trends-as-trump-fires-impeachment-witnesses-the-mad-king-puts-another-head-on-a-pike/

  20. Confessions,
    “Is Trump pro-life? ” The Donald is purely about The Donald and bugger everything else except when it can be used and abused to help boost The Donald.

  21. Laura Tingle:

    The sports rorts saga is now a big test for the Senate — and Morrison has some wheeling and dealing to do

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-08/federal-government-accountability-senate-crossbench/11944552

    Governments of both persuasions have fought off Senate demands for information in the past.
    :::
    The Senate has procedural measures it can use to ramp up the pressure on the Government, like refusing to deal with government business unless a document is provided.

    If the Senate crossbench backs such moves, we may actually find out a bit more about how the Government operates.

    But the crossbench is at the heart of political wheeling and dealing.

    Getting the Government out of a tight spot might just involve the sort of trade-off on legislation to which we have become so accustomed.

  22. Rick Wilson‏Verified account @TheRickWilson

    It’s less like the White House and more like the center of a continuing criminal enterprise.

  24. jenauthot

    Those of the hard left might have the best policies when analysed fully

    Could you give me an idea of what policies qualify as being of the “hard left” ?

  25. FredNK,

    I have the good fortune to live in an area where I can vote Green at municipal, state and federal levels secure in the knowledge that my vote is not aiding or abetting the climate criminals in Labor or Liberal.

    The Urban waterways grants were 100% cynically targeted pork, not a promise.

    Why else would safe Labor seats surrounding Wills and Cooper have projects which “secured” funding well before the election. Yet the Moonee Ponds and Merri Creeks groups were being told days before the election that they needed to sign a petition on Tony Burke’s website or call Peter Kahlil, Ged Kearney, or Bill Shorten’s electorate offices. The difference? Labor was concerned about the Greens vote in Wills and Cooper, and what better way to shore up a wavering electorate than FOMO. And what better way to obtain a targeted call list than a petition….

  27. Yes it certainly looks as though Trump’s views on abortion are fluid.

    Trump’s stance on abortion has shifted radically over the years, from “pro-choice to pro-prison,” as the BBC put it. In 1999, he described himself on NBC News’ Meet the Press as “very pro-choice.” On the 2016 campaign trial, he said there should be “some sort of punishment” for women who had had abortions.

    https://qz.com/1368890/the-one-thing-that-could-drive-evangelical-christians-away-from-trump/

  28. Pegasus – you answered that yourself. It is perspective.

    And that kind of focus is exactly what I was talking about.

    The Greens are/will remain impotent, so long as they do not learn cooperation. I agree whole-heartedly with many Green policies but I also see that if 90% of the population prefers something less strident (no matter how ‘right’ they are) I need to compromise a little if I want to make my vote count.

  29. Yes it certainly looks as though Trump’s views on abortion are fluid.

    Trump’s views on anything are fluid. He’s playing politics, not being an actual person who gives a shit one way or the other.

  30. Poroti – I believe that mining coal is ultimately going to have to stop, for instance.

    But I do not agree the Greens’ means of trying to achieve that. Slapping most people in the face saying “You’re wrong!” Does nothing to get people to come around to your way of thinking. It only gets peoples’ backs up.

    You can’t divert the direction of a river by simply trying to start it in a different place without creating a bend first.

  31. Pegasus says:
    Saturday, February 8, 2020 at 11:56 am
    Laura Tingle:

    But the crossbench is at the heart of political wheeling and dealing.

    Getting the Government out of a tight spot might just involve the sort of trade-off on legislation to which we have become so accustomed.

    —————————————–

    It shows that majority of the minor/individual senators are as corrupt as the libs/nats , and will never be serious of forcing Morrison and his cronies into a federal ICAC they had the chance with Labor amendments in the union bill but rejected it.

  33. When Labor gets into government , the deals what should be looked at which involves the minor partys /individual senators

    ABCC

    Carbon price repeal

    Lambie and medivac

    Welfare card

    work for the dole

    and many others

  34. jenauthor @ #2326 Saturday, February 8th, 2020 – 12:07 pm

    The Greens are/will remain impotent, so long as they do not learn cooperation. I agree whole-heartedly with many Green policies but I also see that if 90% of the population prefers something less strident (no matter how ‘right’ they are) I need to compromise a little if I want to make my vote count.

    You can make exactly the same comment about Labor. How many people here on PB – supposedly genuine Labor supporters – spend their entire time here demonizing the Greens? How useful is that? All it is likely to do is drive Labor’s primary vote down further, and makes it more likely Labor will have to govern with minority party support.

  35. Player One @ #2332 Saturday, February 8th, 2020 – 12:19 pm

    jenauthor @ #2326 Saturday, February 8th, 2020 – 12:07 pm

    The Greens are/will remain impotent, so long as they do not learn cooperation. I agree whole-heartedly with many Green policies but I also see that if 90% of the population prefers something less strident (no matter how ‘right’ they are) I need to compromise a little if I want to make my vote count.

    You can make exactly the same comment about Labor. How many people here on PB – supposedly genuine Labor supporters – spend their entire time here demonizing the Greens? How useful is that? All it is likely to do is drive Labor’s primary vote down further, and makes it more likely Labor will have to govern with minority party support.

    You’ve said that many times before. Do you honestly think repeating bullshit turns it in to butter?

  38. Phillip Adams
    @PhillipAdams_1
    ·
    12m
    Federal Parliament surround by coloured tape. Declared a crime scene Serial killers murdering the body politic

  39. GG, much as I appreciate you quoting my comments in full and therefore making them visible to those who would prefer not to have their ideas challenged and so choose to block other posters, but honestly … why do you bother, when you clearly have nothing to contribute?

  40. I am not anti-Green but 11% is 11% and has not really grown for years. This tells me that whatever worthiness there is in Green policies, the PERCEPTION of the bulk of voters is that they hard-left and thus not worthy of first vote.

    By emphasising that perception, the Greens isolate themselves from the bulk of the electorate and become a weapon of the r-w.

    Righteousness, even if in some areas deserved, does NOT endear anyone and the Coalition uses it to advantage.

    The coalition will use whatever means they can to denigrate anyone left of them in the eyes of the electorate. Perceived extremism, even if unjustified, becomes a tool of the coalition.

    Most people here, I think, are not anti-green, so much as realistic.

    Politics is always portrayed as the ‘art of the possible’. If 90% of the public is resistant to the 10% they perceive as extreme … yelling louder will not make any difference.

  42. From Alan Kohler’s Weekend Briefing:

    ‘…Professor Neil Ferguson, from something called the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics at the Imperial College London, and is conducted by someone from the College, so not a journalist. It’s a very straightforward, dry, interview.
    I’m not sure where he is getting the data from, although he mentions “surveillance” at one point, but it seems this bloke and his institute are deeply involved in all major epidemics and he is getting a lot of information about the Chinese coronavirus.
    It’s about 10 minutes long and worth watching, but I’ve noted down his main points in case you don’t have the time or inclination:
    10% or less of the infections have been detected so far
    Outside of China it’s about 25% of the infections
    There are an estimated 50,000 new infections PER DAY
    He thinks the disease is doubling every five days
    There is no evidence yet of it slowing down
    It will probably peak in about a month in China but there is a lot of uncertainty about that
    After it peaks in China, the rest of the world will continue to have epidemics of the disease for a while longer
    The disease is very hard to control, like SARS
    It will take months or perhaps years to develop a vaccine
    There is a wide range of symptoms – some people are affected only very mildly, and if they are transmitting it’s very hard to control
    Mild cases are the majority
    It can take a person three weeks to die, so the fact that there are not many deaths so far is not reassuring.’

  43. The trend is for people voting for fringe parties to assuage their ‘gripes’. One Nation and Clive. Those votes didn’t go further left. They went further right (though I’d suggest that low information voters were just wanting disruptors).

    Lets watch primary votes/polls over the next year or so and see what’s what.

  45. There has been quite a lot of discussion about Morrison’s attempt to pivot to new technologies as the way to address climate change.

    One of the more interesting comments was from someone whose name I have now forgotten: how to manage incentives and disincentives around new technologies without putting a de facto price on carbon.

  46. The issue isn’t about turning Green voters away from Labor (although what Green voter who genuinely is voting on environmental issues would preference the Liberals above Labor thinks they’re doing is beyond me…) or Labor voters from the Greens.

    The issue is that the ‘same same’ ‘they’re just as bad as each other…’ etc messages stop disengaged voters from (i) engaging and (ii) changing their vote.

    The Greens message isn’t just heard by the Greens.

    If you’re a disenchanted Liberal voter hearing that Labor is ‘same same’, then you’re not going to shift your vote. You’re not going to vote Green, either.

    The Greens believe the ‘same same’ message switches people from Labor to Green. Possibly it does, but the bigger concern is that is stops hesitating, low information voters from shifting at all.

  47. Is the $4million support for a feasibility study for a 1GW “high efficiency, low emissions” coal plant at Collinsville ( NQ) by the Fed govt a genuine bid to build the plant, or $4m to shut up Barnaby ?

  48. …and, of course, if you’re a disengaged voter who believes that the Greens are on the same side of Labor, the Greens telling you Labor is Bad seems like conclusive proof that shifting your vote from the Liberals to Labor is a pointless exercise.

  50. The federal government says it will spend up to $6 million on two new Queensland electricity generation projects – including a coal-fired power plant – as part of a bid to lower power prices.

    About $2 million has been set aside for a pre-feasibility study on a 1.5 gigawatt hydroelectric plant to be developed as part of the planned Urannah Water Scheme, while up to $4 million will support a feasibility study for a 1GW “high efficiency, low emissions” coal plant at Collinsville.

    “We are supporting two promising new generation projects to deliver the reliable, affordable power that the north Queensland economy needs to grow and thrive,” Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack said.

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/two-coal-fired-and-hydroelectric-power-projects-being-explored-for-qld-20200208-p53yy8.html

    @simonahac
    ·
    11m
    i’m still offering 10-to-1 odds that there won’t be a new #coal fired power station in australia this decade. or next. or the one after.

    up for it
    @M_McCormackMP
    ?

    (in the meantime, you’re wasting $4m of public funds on an ideological crusade.)

    Energy Minister Angus Taylor said the projects were important to meet the power needs of people in central and north Queensland.

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