Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Labor slightly widens the lead it opened in the previous Newspoll, and Anthony Albanese maintains his ascendancy as preferred prime minister despite a slight fall in his personal ratings.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead widening from 51-49 to 52-48 since the previous poll three weeks ago. Both major parties are down on the primary vote, the Coalition by two to 38% and Labor by one to 35%, while the Greens are up one to 13% (equalling their best result since 2011) and One Nation is steady at 4%. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are unchanged after the hit he suffered in the previous poll, at 37% approval and 59% disapproval, while a spike in Anthony Albanese’s ratings last time has failed to completely stick, with his approval down three to 43% and disapproval up three to 40% (compared with 40% and 41% in the poll before). However, Albanese maintains the lead on preferred prime minister he opened up in the last poll, which is out slightly from 43-39 to 43-38. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1510.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

831 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 5 of 17
1 … 4 5 6 … 17

  1. meher baba @ #196 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 11:25 am

    The people you’ve got to get behind you in order to win government are the aspirational voters in the suburban seats. The message that you are going to impose more taxes on savings and wealth in order to fund social goods has never been an easy one to sell to this group and, as the proportion of them who are of Asian (especially Chinese and Indian) background continues to rise, the task will become even harder, given the widespread pro-wealth, anti-welfare attitudes among these groups.

    I agree with pretty much all your post, and especially the part above. The point, though, is that the “dead hand” of the Boomer vote also makes this task much more difficult than it usually is.

  5. Whatever happens tomorrow, the new Nationals leadership will be pretty much the same as the old Nationals leadership.

    However a new Greens leadership provides the chance for the Greens to take a more conciliatory approach to the major non-LNP party and work in co-operation (instead of confrontation) to help bring about real action to address global warming.

  7. The Black Wiggle’s epitath..

    “We are the natural home of progressive mainstream Australian voters,” he said, laying down the gauntlet to the party’s rival, Labor.

    The GQ interview will only fuel speculation Di Natale is prepared to go further than his predecessors in pursuing that goal. Labor attack dog Anthony Albanese has been spruiking what he calls a “secret deal” between the Greens and the Liberal Party to direct Liberal preferences to inner-city Greens in return for the Greens running open tickets in Victoria, rather than preferencing Labor.

    It plays on Labor’s earlier rhetoric about the Greens teaming up with the Coalition to support reform of the Senate voting system.

    “It’s true that there are some people who say we should never do anything with the Liberal Party,” Di Natale told the magazine. “But it’s my view and the view of my party room, that you have to put the policy first and then the politics looks after itself.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/never-say-never-skivvyswathed-richard-di-natale-open-to-coalition-with-the-liberal-party-20160309-gne4vu.html

  8. Impact of the coronavirus rolls on. 🙁

    https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?pli=1#inbox/FMfcgxwGDDmKNPkTvTWjkZwbWsJkVwQX

    “All up, the overall-exposure of institutions via fee payment alone across all sectors could be up to $664m.

    Then there is the additional spend that goes along-side fee payments to assist in local economies (rent, groceries, travel, tourism, entertainment).

    If each student over a semester long period paid $10,520 (half of annual suggested rate of $21,041) which is a conservative figure, then local communities and service providers are set to lose out on a further $499m.

    All in all, the impact could be as high as $1.2bn and this is for commencers alone. Returning students who may have already commenced their study pattern and who may have returned home for Chinese New Year will add to this. They now will also be caught up in this travel ban and perhaps will have to defer studies. It’s anyone’s guess how large this group may be.”

  9. RDN quietly flagged awhile ago that he may not re-contest the next election.

    What a great leader he has been. A true inspiration to us all. He will be missed. Thankfully, we are not short on worthy candidates to step into his shoes.

  10. Mavis @ #182 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 10:53 am

    [‘That represents a mortality rate of 11 per cent — which is significantly higher than the early estimates of between two and three per cent by the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the Centers for Disease Control (CDC).’]

    https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/new-lancet-paper-says-coronavirus-mortality-rate-could-be-as-high-as-11-per-cent/news-story/a5d5506601ef56bcc7b2de4e31b64af7

    That article is a News Corpse beatup of the 31/1/20 Lancet article I linked to earlier. The 11% “CFR” is an upper limit on nowcasting, not a measured figure. The measured CFR at present is ~2% in China, which has now had at least 3 cycles since emergence.

  11. Watching the Superbowl ATM. Someone (was it Diogenes), commented last night that, on the basis of a preference for blue states over red states, PBers should support San Fran over Kansas City.

    Kansas City is currently ahead and playing better than their opponents, so I just want to reassure those who feel the same as Dio that the team comes from would reasonably described a swing state (Missouri) rather than a dyed in the wool red state.

    It’s a peculiar fact that all but a few small suburbs of Kansas City are not in the state of Kansas, but on the other side of the river in Missouri State. US geography takes a lot of work to comprehend, so it’s hardly surprising that many people from that country struggle to find the energy to understand the geography of the rest of the world.

    Kansas City was the epicentre of post-WWII developments in jazz. It’s actually quite a groovy place.

  13. ‘citizen says:
    Monday, February 3, 2020 at 11:32 am

    Whatever happens tomorrow, the new Nationals leadership will be pretty much the same as the old Nationals leadership.’

    But, really?

    A Joyce/Canavan team v a McCormack/Littleproud team?

  14. P1 “I agree with pretty much all your post, and especially the part above. The point, though, is that the “dead hand” of the Boomer vote also makes this task much more difficult than it usually is”

    Yes, voters are simply *older* than they’ve ever been before. Im not convinced the centre left parties are across that, and Im even less convinced organisations like GetUp see that problem clearly.

  16. ‘Firefox says:
    Monday, February 3, 2020 at 11:35 am

    RDN quietly flagged awhile ago that he may not re-contest the next election.

    What a great leader he has been. A true inspiration to us all. He will be missed. Thankfully, we are not short on worthy candidates to step into his shoes.’

    Plenty of smoke. No fire.

  17. lefty e

    I think it’s good news. RDN was good at many things, but in the end too middle of the road for these times.

    Greens need a radical shit-stirrer capable of shining a Green New Deal and shaking up younger voters with a more transformative vision.

    I was happy when Bob Brown resigned. Christine Milne was hammered by the media and her detractors as a “school marm”. Richard Di Natale is a nice person but given current events, I completely agree with what you are saying here.

  21. Mavis @ #196 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 10:25 am

    Agree that Labor’s primary vote needs to lift, but a 2PP lead is a lead

    Technically it is. But it’s coming entirely from minor party preference flows.

    If Labor starts on 35% and gets 80% of the Greens preferences that puts them on 45.5%. That leaves them with 6.5% to pick up from 14% of the vote [100% – (38% LPN + 35% APL + 13% GRN) = 14%] to get to 52/48.

    Labor needs roughly a 50/50 preferences split from the ‘minor parties, excluding the Greens’ vote for that outcome. But a lot of the ‘minor parties, excluding the Greens’ vote is Labor-hostile, so…not a lead to bet the farm on, imo.

    And I’d anticipate that come Wednesday, Labor will unload in parliament, it having so much ammo.

    I hope they do.

  22. Di Natale:

    …”The future of progressive politics is in the parliament and in the streets, and I am filled with confidence about the direction that each is heading”…

    …………………

    If he genuinely believes that we should have confidence in the direction of progressive politics, then he must be living on a different planet.

  23. B.S. Fairman says:
    Monday, February 3, 2020 at 11:42 am

    …”What happens if all the Greens nominate for leader? Do they invoke no voting for one’s self?”…

    ……………………

    They all win?

  24. The baby boomers timeline is a hard one
    If it is around 1945 to 1965
    It covers both parents and their first born child In amongst my crowd.
    Often the case, women in particular had their first child before age 21.
    So the question is who is the boomer and who is the baby.
    LOL!

  25. Player Onesays:
    Monday, February 3, 2020 at 11:23 am
    Windhover @ #172 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 11:08 am

    Player Onesays:
    Monday, February 3, 2020 at 10:54 am
    Windhover @ #155 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 10:38 am

    P1, for reasons unknown, endlessly bores PB with complaints that the ALP has no policies, and specifically no carbon emission policies.
    …………………………………………………………….
    Happy for you to point me to Labor’s current policy.
    ……………………………………………………………..

    You will be happy then P1. As I predicted in my previous post:

    “when policies are announced P1 will revert to posting of the dire consequences that will arise from those policies (never mind LNP), oh, and Adani is somehow Labor’s fault of course.”
    …………………………………………………………………….
    So, you castigate me for the sin of pointing out that Labor has no policies. Then you admit that Labor has no policies.

    **sheesh**
    …………………………………………………………………….
    No and no. But you know that already. Furthermore you know I know you know that already. Happy dissembling, but you are not in Scotty’s class.

  26. The Guardian – Latest round of political donations:

    The Australian Conservation Foundation has done some number crunching on the AEC disclosures and found:

    The fossil fuel industry directly donated more than $85.7 million to Australian political parties in the 2018-19 financial year, highlighting the need for serious reform of the political donations system,

    The political party returns 2018-19, released today, reveal:

    The biggest fossil fuel donor was Clive Palmer’s Mineralogy, which donated $83,681,442 to Palmer’s United Australia Party.

    The biggest donor to the major parties was gas company Woodside, which donated $135,400 to Labor and 147,940 to the Liberal National Coalition.

    The fossil fuel industry in total donated $85,719,747 to Australian political parties. Excluding donations to the United Australia Party (UAP), fossil fuel industry donations totalled $1,894,024.

    The top three fossil fuel industry donors, excluding Clive Palmer linked companies, were Woodside, Adani (through Adani Mining and the Carmichael Rail Network Trust) and the gas industry lobby group Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association (APPEA). These donated a total of $692,299.

    Which party was the big fossil fuel winner?

    The Coalition received the most from fossil fuel industries, receiving a total of $1,147,376.

    However, Labor received $725,448 in donations from fossil fuel industries.

    Woodside was the largest fossil fuel donor to the Liberal Party, donating $137,750.

    Woodside was the largest fossil fuel donor to Labor, donating $135,400.

    Adani (through Adani Mining and the Carmichael Rail Network Trust) was the biggest donor to the Nationals, donating $121,800.

  28. Nick McKim would be another corporate Greens leader

    RDN struck me as more anti_labor than anti_LNP, so because I consider LNP to be the enemy, I coudn’t support the Greens under his leadership

    Thnaks for your rustications re Nats leadership

  30. Richard Di Natale:

    “It has been a privilege and an honour to lead the Australian Greens in the federal parliament for the past four years, fighting every day for the values that millions of Australians care so deeply about.

    But leading a political party is a tough, demanding job so after nearly a decade as a senator – half that time as leader – I have decided to step aside as parliamentary leader of the Australian Greens.

    Before I became one of them, I thought that politicians who said they want to ‘spend more time with their family’ were guilty of using one of the biggest cliches in politics. As it turns out, in some cases it’s true. My boys are 9 and 11 years old and they have only ever known their dad as a busy, tired and sometimes grumpy politician. As they grow up quickly to become young men, I want to spend more time by their side than a relentless political schedule allows.

    Looking back on the last decade in parliament, there are so many things I am proud of. The carbon price we negotiated in 2010 with the Gillard government, which showed what can be accomplished when political parties work together for a common goal; the much-needed royal commissions into the banking and disability sectors; and, of course, the historic vote to achieve marriage equality.

    As for what comes next for the Greens, I have great confidence in the intelligence, compassion and courage of every one of my parliamentary colleagues. But the success of our party and cause has never and will never depend upon one person. Our party will succeed because we are part of a much broader community movement, a movement that is growing stronger each day.

    I don’t know what comes next for me, but I intend to continue to make a positive contribution to the issues about which I have been so passionate for my entire adult life: Green politics, climate change, health, issues affecting First Nations people and tackling inequality.

    So many Australians are making it clear that they want urgent climate action and as a Greens MP, I am proud to have represented them in our parliament. I will be ending my time as leader filled with optimism about the future, buoyed by the millions of young people who I marched alongside during the student climate strike in Melbourne last year.

    The future of progressive politics is in the parliament and in the streets, and I am filled with confidence about the direction that each is heading.”

  31. Windhover @ #224 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 11:47 am

    No and no. But you know that already. Furthermore you know I know you know that already. Happy dissembling, but you are not in Scotty’s class.

    What does “no and no” mean? That you did not castigate me for pointing out that Labor has no policies, or are you claiming that Labor does have policies in this space?

    If you were being honest, shouldn’t you have said “yes and yes”?

    I think everyone can see who is dissembling here.

  32. The reality about the boomers is that older people are more conservative (generally).
    It’s that there were just more of them born…
    As they are replaced by Gen X (as being the senior generation), there will be relatively less Gen Xers as a percentage of the population. Hopefully the demographic change will have a positive effect…

  34. So the clear take out from this Newspoll is same same for Morrison and Albanese – they stink and so to their parties.

    Best wishes to RDN for the future – his heart was in the right place re politics and society.

  35. I had to laugh at this, from RDN’s live press conference …

    “I had major surgery last year … it took a bit out of me …”

  38. Di Natale has done this so well. Instead of hanging around like a jaded cop seeking his pension he quits when he loses the fire in his belly. He doesn’t just hang around until the next election either but gives it all up gracefully. A senator for 10 years and a leader for 5. That’s a good contribution without keeping your head in the trough.

  39. Greens leader Richard Di Natale quits leadership, will leave Senate

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/greens-leader-richard-di-natale-quits-leadership-will-leave-senate-20200203-p53x6a.html

    “Being away for half the year from a young family has just become, for me, too difficult. And when I’ve got my youngest boy saying, ‘I wish you weren’t a politician, Dad, because we don’t see you,’ it’s telling you something.”
    :::
    Senator Di Natale said he was not backing anyone to succeed him.

    “It’s a decision for the party room. There are 10 people, it’s not a difficult decision when you only have 10 people.”

    Mr Bandt, the party’s climate change spokesperson and only lower house MP, is expected to emerge as the frontrunner to replace Senator Di Natale. High-profile South Australian senator Sarah Hanson-Young has also previously nominated for leadership roles.
    :::
    Senator Di Natale, who was a GP and public health specialist before coming to Canberra, said he had been thinking about resigning since last year, but had given himself the summer break to confirm his decision.

    He said he wanted to be able to support Ms Quarterman’s career, after she had supported his for a decade, adding he had also been “knocked around” by knee surgery to repair an old footy injury last October.

    “Having major surgery’s good for your perspective,” he said.
    :::
    Senator Di Natale listed medicinal cannabis legislation, Medicare-funded dental care and the since-dismantled carbon price scheme, as well as the Greens’ campaigns for marriage equality and the banking and disability abuse royal commissions among his parliamentary highlights.
    :::
    “We’ve endured this horrific bushfire season but there’s no question there is a big movement building around climate change. A year ago, just to link the issue of bushfires and climate change was heresy and we were criticised [and] now it’s accepted that there’s a link.”

    “I want to continue to be active in Greens politics, but I want to be able to do it in a way that allows me to be there for my family.”

    Over the Christmas break, after he had made his decision to quit politics, Senator Di Natale went camping for a few days with his family at Apollo Bay in south western Victoria.

    “Lucy and I both looked at each other and said, ‘we’re going to be able to do a lot more of this now’. We both had a big smile on our faces.”

  40. As the true Party of Democracy, it could months before the Greens know their new lead…

    What?????

    What do you mean it’s just decided by the Parliamentary Member and Senators?

    How can that be?

  43. So all Greens leadership positions have been spilled, and the partyroom will vote in a new leadership team tomorrow.

    Senator Richard Di Natale has resigned as leader of the Greens and will leave federal Parliament within months to spend more time with his young family.

    He made the surprise announcement to Greens colleagues on Monday, immediately spilling his position as leader and those of co-deputy leaders Adam Bandt and Larissa Waters.

    The 10-member Greens party room will vote for a new leadership team on Tuesday.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/greens-leader-richard-di-natale-quits-leadership-will-leave-senate-20200203-p53x6a.html

  44. Di Natale realized that he was leading the Big Political Lie and he could not face the prospect of geeing up the troops to take the Greens New Deal CO2 Emissions Strike even during the height of the Climate Emergency.
    Quitter.

  45. Conferences behind closed doors.
    Leadership ballots behind closed doors only involving the privileged few.

    Sounds like the Liberal Party.

  46. Pegasus
    says:
    Monday, February 3, 2020 at 12:03 pm
    nath
    Indeed. And he hasn’t garnered a well-paid sinecure via the revolving door both major party politicians participate in.
    _________________
    Yep. I doubt he will pop up as a Crown henchmen, a bank or gambling spokesmen or lobbyist. He will make another contribution to society elsewhere. His departure has been all class, he’s done a solid job. well done.

  49. nath @ #250 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 9:04 am

    Pegasus
    says:
    Monday, February 3, 2020 at 12:03 pm
    nath
    Indeed. And he hasn’t garnered a well-paid sinecure via the revolving door both major party politicians participate in.
    _________________
    Yep. I doubt he will pop up as a Crown henchmen, a bank, gambling or lobbyist. He will make another contribution to society elsewhere. His departure has been all class, he’s done a solid job. well done.

    Maybe he’ll start campaigning against renewable energy projects like Bob?

  50. Richard Di Natale

    “I’ve been in this gig 10 years, I’ve seen half a dozen prime ministers come and go, I’ve seen political chaos and turmoil all around us.

    We had our challenges but we have been the most stable and enduring political force in our parliament and we are growing.

    We are going from strength to strength and I feel very confident in my future for the Greens.

    It’s going to be a decision to the party room. It’s probably worth me letting you know. We have a party meeting in 24 hours so we expect there will be a ballot on who nominates tomorrow morning.

    As for me, look, [I won’t] hang around the Parliament [like a bad smell]. I can’t believe we have some of these jokers hanging around causing problems for future leaders the best thing you can do once you’ve made a decision to resign is to leave your phone number with the person who follows you and let them know you are always there, should they need your advice but only if they want your advice.

    So I’m going to resign as a senator, once my replacement is chosen, and I expect that will happen at some point towards the middle of the year.”

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 5 of 17
1 … 4 5 6 … 17