Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Labor slightly widens the lead it opened in the previous Newspoll, and Anthony Albanese maintains his ascendancy as preferred prime minister despite a slight fall in his personal ratings.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead widening from 51-49 to 52-48 since the previous poll three weeks ago. Both major parties are down on the primary vote, the Coalition by two to 38% and Labor by one to 35%, while the Greens are up one to 13% (equalling their best result since 2011) and One Nation is steady at 4%. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are unchanged after the hit he suffered in the previous poll, at 37% approval and 59% disapproval, while a spike in Anthony Albanese’s ratings last time has failed to completely stick, with his approval down three to 43% and disapproval up three to 40% (compared with 40% and 41% in the poll before). However, Albanese maintains the lead on preferred prime minister he opened up in the last poll, which is out slightly from 43-39 to 43-38. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1510.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

831 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. C@t

    It says everything about the standards The Nationals are prepared to accept that they would consider reinstating a proven adulterer as their leader.
    ——————

    This place gets more and more like a meeting of the Christian Women’s Temperance League everyday. 🙂

  2. I think the latter, Simon.

    The hint lies in his admission that he was the minister who approved a grant, authorised or not, to his own club.

  3. The Nationals’ leadership is of those contests that you don’t want anyone to win. And to be honest, don’t really care who wins.

  4. Bellwether:

    Looks like the major contenders in the Iowa caucuses tomorrow are Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders and Warren. May the best person win!

    Klobuchar is also making a surprising late run in Iowa, averaging about 10% in the polls there now.

  5. Funnily enough, we received our FIRST EVER flyer, in two years of living here, from National Party Deputy Leader wannabee, David Gillespie, only on Friday.

    It didn’t mention bushfires or Climate at all (despite our area being one of the first to make headlines in this regard). Rather it concentrated on a pork-barrel “University for Taree” issue. Lots of glad hands and toothy faces in the photos,

  6. The reason why Barnaby’s adultery still matters (and isn’t a personal matter) is that he took the “high moral ground” in opposing same sex marriage.

  7. It does actually say a lot about those that back “traditional” values, if Joyce is reelected. Admittedly they have always been like that.

  8. The reason why Barnaby’s adultery still matters (and isn’t a personal matter) is that he took the “high moral ground” in opposing same sex marriage.
    ______
    He’s religious only when it suits him.

  9. I couldn’t give a stuff about Barnaby’s personal life and relationships. However, If someone who bangs on about their devotion to family values and their religiosity clearly does not live by those values, then where else is he falling short of the standards he espouses? Can you trust him?

  10. Bellwether:

    These are aggregated polls which are a bit on the nose these days (apologies William Bowe) and maybe especially so when it comes to the caucuses. There is one candidate that is reasonably clearly ahead in the latest polling for the Iowa caucus and it isn’t Biden. I will refrain from naming his/her name because I’m not in the mood for being jumped on at the moment.

    Yes, I did say national polls. Sanders does seem to be marginally ahead in the Iowa polls, though there’s not a lot in it (and caucuses often deliver polling surprises).

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/iowa/

    I’ll be fascinated to see the results come in tomorrow.

  11. BK @ #665 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 7:42 pm

    Barnaby is a fair weather family values person.
    ____
    Sows his wild oats all week and goes to church on Sunday to pray for a crop failure.

    If you view him as a bull in a paddock with a bunch of heifers over the fence his behaviour starts to make sense. It’s probably where he got his sex education after all.

  12. It’s usually the way. Those who are so strongly and publicly opposed to rights for others are invariably tripped up by their own behaviour:

    – staunchly pro-lifers who arrange abortions on the sly for their daughter
    – pro hetero marriage folk who cheat on their partners and divorce at the drop of a hat
    – deeply religious and devout who have sex with minors and/or commit a multitude of sins
    – pro-lifers who are steadfastly in favour of the death penalty

    And then there’s all those evangelicals who throw their support behind the thrice-married pussy grabber president who cheats on his breastfeeding wife with a porn star, clearly as jesus would have wanted.

  13. “ I am going to delete this tweet, sad to say. It’s a reference to the leadership spill spin cycle and the competing claims we always hear about the numbers for each camp. But jokes don’t work and so this one is for the bin. https://t.co/IdCApCRREi— David Crowe (@CroweDM) February 3, 2020”

    Crowe shouldn’t sell his comic talents short (his columns have been unintentionally hilarious for years, but I digress), cause that joke works for me.

    #libspill5.0 – the rapture!

  14. The Tennis finished yesterday, so that marks the end of the last remnant of the Christmas / Summer break. It’s been different this year, not the usual timeout.

  15. @Sprocket 7.27pm:

    He’s gone too far this time. Morrison’s junk is visible. Some things can never be unseen. …

    The horror. The horror!

  16. The sky over the House on the Hill has turned an dull yellow-brown as the Orroral Fire CO2 emissions get blown in from the South-east.

  17. “ The reason why Barnaby’s adultery still matters (and isn’t a personal matter) is that he took the “high moral ground” in opposing same sex marriage.”

    Maybe to a certain degree, but the real reason it matters was because of the shenanigans involved in creating a made up job in the whips office that seemed to only involve liaising with the Leaders office on social media campaigning. In truth it was a paid concubine’s position. THAT matters. Even now. Yet it was the one thing mainly glossed over by our intrepid heroes in the GPG and Sharri-land.

  18. So, over at the trailer-park soiree tonight, a guy told me that Clive spent $89M to kill Shorten – and it worked a treat, the extrapolation of which is that Bloomberg can achieve a similar result, apparently airing an ad at the Super Bowl, which costs an arm, a leg. I don’t give a cuss who trumps Trump. All that matters is his demise – by hook or by crook.

  19. Yet another marker for why the management of the Orroral Fire has been a major demonstration of how not to fight a fire. The overriding principles have been to apply too few resources too late and then to cover up the real world consequences with polly blather.

    Scottsdale Reserve has been hammered.
    I’ve spent some afternoons planting she-oaks for Glossy Black Cockatoo habitat on Scottsdale.
    I assume they are now burned and dead.

    https://www.bushheritage.org.au/places-we-protect/new-south-wales/scottsdale

  20. Joyce’s personal morals are distinct from some other politicians’ morals because they became public and became political cannon fodder.
    The major problem with Joyce, IMO, is that he fucked up everything he touched as a minister.
    He was never up to carrying out ministerial responsibilities effectively.

  21. Andrew_Earlwood @ #683 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 7:08 pm

    but the real reason it matters was because of the shenanigans involved in creating a made up job in the whips office that seemed to only involve liaising with the Leaders office on social media campaigning.

    Yeah, that. There’s everything that’s unsavory about the power imbalance in what’s effectively a ‘boss screws employee’ scenario, plus the whole extra part where he fabricated a nice, easy, taxpayer-funded job for her to do, conveniently nearby.

  22. Bloomberg has promised up to $1 billion and 500 communications/advertising staffers to help beat Trump, whoever the Democrat candidate is.

    I imagine it would be largely negative anti-Trump campaigning from Bloomberg.

  23. The northern development fund that he oversaw was hopelessly underspent and behindhand. There was neither rhyme nor reason in the application of the funds. You couldn’t really argue that it was corrupt.. more that it was incompetent.
    He was the minister for water who practically oversaw the destruction of the functioning of the MDB across large swathes of NSW.
    He was the minister for Ag who practically oversaw the disappearance of large swathes of the dairy industry.
    He was the minister for Ag who somehow or other managed to ensure that large swathes of the live animal trade was cut off because he couldn’t get the industry to treat animals properly.
    And so it goes.

  24. Orroral Fire Update ACT
    After weeks of fighting fires, units from ACT and NSW are exhausted, the aerial response has been massive.
    The deeds of those fighting this fire are largely being ignored by the media (intentionally or otherwise) and the lack of engagement from ths public remains mystifying.
    The damage to health, business and the environment will require substantial investigation if we are to learn from this disaster.
    Tonight, a critical event has occurred, the winds have changed, turning around, to now to come from the south and south east. The cool change is welcome.
    This has created a perhaps more imminent danger to the next stage of this already horrific fire, amongst a cacophany of fires and more importantly a cacophany of noise from all levels of government.
    The immediate dangers apparent from the change of wind direction will further imperil the national capital and significantly increase the stress of the very tired and under resourced firefighting force charged with the job of keeping everyone safe.
    With total disbelieve I observe that the Greens have decided to be political at a time of a series of environmental catastrophes across Australia.
    Even more outrageously, the Morrison LNP federal government having been caught out as deceitful and dishonest, has its partner, the Nationals, together with their political operatives, bickering over the spoils of office, oblivious to the emergency created by climate change, the drought and the fires.
    The 2019/2020 drought and the associated fires are not remotely nearing an end.
    Is this the summer that awakens the disengagement of the voters and provides some real leadership and responsibility to make the directional changes needed to enable Australia to move forward?

  25. citizen:

    [‘Bloomberg has promised up to $1 billion and 500 communications/advertising staffers to help beat Trump, whoever the Democrat candidate is.’]

    Splendid. Bloomberg’s not what you’d call a charismatic character, but he’s putting in dollars, no doubt a student of history, knowing all too well of how it could go terribly wrong.

  26. ‘Goll says:
    Monday, February 3, 2020 at 8:32 pm

    Orroral Fire Update ACT
    After weeks of fighting fires, units from ACT and NSW are exhausted, the aerial response has been massive.
    The deeds of those fighting this fire are largely being ignored by the media (intentionally or otherwise) and the lack of engagement from ths public remains mystifying.
    The damage to health, business and the environment will require substantial investigation if we are to learn from this disaster.’

    Agree, Goll. You can’t fault the peeps on the ground. Some of the above-and-beyond stories I have heard (about the Tennent Fire in particular) would make your hair curl. As you point out, it is not just the freakish times of high danger, it is the day in, day out long, long slog in the heat, the wind, the smoke and the dust. They do what they can with what they have. The trouble is that they have been dealt a bum hand.

  27. ‘sprocket_ says:
    Monday, February 3, 2020 at 8:34 pm

    BW

    I thought the relocation of the APMVA to Armidale might make your list of Barnyard fwark-ups’

    That one is a cracker of a ministerial fuck up. It had gone back of my mind.

  28. Adam Bandt poised to become Greens leader after Di Natale resignation

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/adam-bandt-to-nominate-as-next-greens-leader-20200203-p53x8n.html

    “Senator Di Natale plans to stay on as a Senator for Victoria until the middle of the year, when a replacement can be found.

    The Victorian Greens will hold a ballot of its members in the coming weeks, after a brief internal campaigning period, to choose a replacement, with a wide field of candidates expected.”

  29. Caf

    I have only been arguing Sanders can win. That he is the front runner in Iowa and New Hampshire.

    I have pointed to all the things that say that is the path Sanders can succeed on.

    I have also pointed to history on what winning Iowa and New Hampshire means for winning the nomination.

    My point has been anyone saying now that Sanders cannot win the Presidency is not looking at reality.

  30. a r:

    Yeah, that. There’s everything that’s unsavory about the power imbalance in what’s effectively a ‘boss screws employee’ scenario, plus the whole extra part where he fabricated a nice, easy, taxpayer-funded job for her to do, conveniently nearby.

    Yep, and don’t forget the dodgy use of travel entitlements to seemingly fund his dirty weekends away.

    And remember, it was actually a sexual harassment complaint that ended up doing him in.

  31. “Goll says:
    Monday, February 3, 2020 at 8:32 pm
    Orroral Fire Update ACT”

    The southerly change late today has got me reading the ESA updates a bit more closely at the moment. It looks like the gusty wind and the smoke will be here throughout the night. We had a few more blackened leaves (cold) fall around dusk as well as some white ash.

    There was still plenty of aircraft movement overhead today including the DC10 retardant spreader.

  32. Boerwar

    That one is a cracker of a ministerial fuck up. It had gone back of my mind.

    It sits at the front of mine. Lots of fun registering products with them . They are turning into a real bottle neck.

Comments are closed.