Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Labor slightly widens the lead it opened in the previous Newspoll, and Anthony Albanese maintains his ascendancy as preferred prime minister despite a slight fall in his personal ratings.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead widening from 51-49 to 52-48 since the previous poll three weeks ago. Both major parties are down on the primary vote, the Coalition by two to 38% and Labor by one to 35%, while the Greens are up one to 13% (equalling their best result since 2011) and One Nation is steady at 4%. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are unchanged after the hit he suffered in the previous poll, at 37% approval and 59% disapproval, while a spike in Anthony Albanese’s ratings last time has failed to completely stick, with his approval down three to 43% and disapproval up three to 40% (compared with 40% and 41% in the poll before). However, Albanese maintains the lead on preferred prime minister he opened up in the last poll, which is out slightly from 43-39 to 43-38. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1510.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

831 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. caf @ #583 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 6:25 pm

    guytaur:

    Yeah that’s why Sanders is leading the Democrats field. Not the Independent field.

    Biden is actually leading in the national polls of the Democratic primary, as he has been for the whole time: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/

    Sanders isn’t far behind, though, and he definitely can win it. People need to remember it’s a multi-stage affair that plays out over 4 months. As it progresses, candidates drop out and the votes start to concentrate with the front runners.

    These are aggregated polls which are a bit on the nose these days (apologies William Bowe) and maybe especially so when it comes to the caucuses. There is one candidate that is reasonably clearly ahead in the latest polling for the Iowa caucus and it isn’t Biden. I will refrain from naming his/her name because I’m not in the mood for being jumped on at the moment.

  3. And, there are rumours that that sort of thing goes all the way back to Chifley as well.

    I’d forgotten about Phyllis (AND her sister, Nell – though not simultaneously) Donelly.

    There was also Blanche and Bob, and Billy Snedden died in the saddle. Bill Shorten is with his second wife, as is Tony Burke.

    Barnarby’s sin was to get outed.

  4. Here’s David Crowe’s tweet that has been deleted. Any chance the PM’s office may have shat themselves and arranged the deletion??

  8. Hope your still up KayJay – I’d be happy if Guy 1 was Joyce
    Three men are spending the holidays at a hospital conversing about what ails them. The first bloke asks what everyone is being treated for. Second fellow responds “I have toe jam. Doctor says that they might have to amputate”. The third guy says “That’s not so bad. I have knee-monia. And they will have to amputate”. Both guys look back at the first guy and ask “What are you in for?”. He responds “Uh… I got dick-theria”.

  11. A number of well-known personalities (sport and politician) have found that their children need them most as they enter their teens, especially their father. I think RdN is doing the smart thing for his family.

  16. Terminator ✔
    Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 6:45 pm
    Comment #608

    I forgot about knee monia – I blame advanced age.

    Greensborough Growler ✔
    Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 6:45 pm
    Comment #607

    Thanks fellas. I’m off for my Saturday night shower. 🚿

  19. My friend’s gardener, and gardeners know everyone and everything in Canberra because people tend to trust their gardeners with their most intimate thoughts, reckons that Dutton has a permanent eye on the numbers.
    The gardener reckons Dutton is pissed that Scotty from Marketing stole his gig and that Dutton will not rest until he gets what is rightfully his.

  20. Boerwar @ 5.23
    Correct.
    How do we get the MSM, the ABC, the politicians at all levels and a disengaged public to have this issue expressed with a heightened sense of awareness and action it desperately needs.

  21. Shit getting real..

    Matt Canavan is backing Barnaby Joyce for leader and has offered his resignation to Michael McCormack.

  22. Baaanaaarbeer doesn’t give a shit about anything except for getting that extra couple of hundred k in pay and bonuses if…sigh…when he takes over again. The IQ of the LNP in Canberra will drop by 50 points.

  24. Boerwar @ #619 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 6:59 pm

    My friend’s gardener, and gardeners know everyone and everything in Canberra because people tend to trust their gardeners with their most intimate thoughts, reckons that Dutton has a permanent eye on the numbers.
    The gardener reckons Dutton is pissed that Scotty from Marketing stole his gig and that Dutton will not rest until he gets what is rightfully his.

    My gardener (I do my own gardening) reckons Dutton is a fascist fuckwit.

  26. Kronomex
    says:
    Monday, February 3, 2020 at 7:04 pm
    Baaanaaarbeer doesn’t give a shit about anything except for getting that extra couple of hundred k in pay and bonuses
    _______________________
    Don’t be ridiculous. Barnaby said today it was all about getting a stronger voice for regional people and you know…..droughts and fires and shit.

  29. Matt Canavan says he also has an undisclosed membership to the North Queensland Cowboys, which he was unaware of until recently. The Cowboys received a grant from a portfolio he oversees

  31. Quick Wombat, link us to another Lancet article.

    New York: The Wuhan coronavirus spreading from China is now likely to become a pandemic that circles the globe, according to many of the world’s leading infectious disease experts.

    The prospect is daunting. A pandemic — an ongoing epidemic on two or more continents — may well have global consequences, despite the extraordinary travel restrictions and quarantines now imposed by China and other countries, including the United States.

    Scientists do not yet know how lethal the new coronavirus is, however, so there is uncertainty about how much damage a pandemic might cause. But there is growing consensus that the pathogen is readily transmitted between humans.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/wuhan-coronavirus-looking-increasingly-like-a-pandemic-experts-20200203-p53xdk.html

  38. And in SA Liberal news, a winner has emerged from the weekend ballot to replace Cory Bernardi:

    The state Liberals’ conservative faction could be set to formally splinter amid rancour from the weekend’s “epic defeat” for the party’s hard Right, which saw moderate-backed MLC Andrew McLachlan snatch an emphatic win in the race for Cory Bernardi’s vacated senate seat.

    McLachlan commanded 131 of the 206 state council votes cast, easily accounting for former favourite Morry Bailes, who had been publicly backed by leading Right-wingers including Tony Pasin and Nicolle Flint.

    Bailes snared 51 votes, little more than double the 24 garnered by fellow Right-winger Michael Van Dissel, whose candidacy had enraged some within the faction, who feared he would split the conservative vote.

    But the bloodletting is set to continue, spilling over into the forthcoming contest for the SA Liberals’ state Upper House ticket, with nominations to close on Wednesday this week.

    The senate race opened deep divisions within the party, with one senior source declaring the result an “epic defeat for the hard Right”, who “massively overreached” in their push to install Bailes as their candidate.

    https://indaily.com.au/news/politics/2020/02/03/liberal-factional-split-looms-after-epic-defeat/

  40. Danama Papers
    says:
    Monday, February 3, 2020 at 7:12 pm
    B.S. Fairman @ #630 Monday, February 3rd, 2020 – 4:08 pm
    Matt Canavan has quit cabinet. Backing Joyce.
    Well at least some good has come out of it if Canavan’s gorn.
    _________________________
    Only to return as Deputy Leader maybe?

  41. It looks like the climate change deniers are making another push to block any move top sanity within the Coalition. It has worked for Barnyard before and may work again.

  43. sprocket_
    says:
    Monday, February 3, 2020 at 7:18 pm
    We have to speak that little bit louder to be heard, says Canavan. That’s why we need a change.
    ______________
    We need to speak that little bit louder and slur our words more.

  45. Just before 8am, Matt Canavan stood in the Press Gallery corridor and backed Michael McCormack as leader of the Nationals.Just after 7pm, Matt Canavan stood in the Press Gallery corridor and backed Barnaby Joyce as leader of the Nationals.#auspol is at it again— Matthew Doran (@MattDoran91) February 3, 2020

    Just appalling.

  48. The Member for Big Gina….

    Canavan on @theboltreport

    “We’ve still got people that want people to shut down the coal industry”

    He suggests McCormack hasn’t fought for coal fired power enough, and hasn’t fought the Liberals enough.

    This is Morrison’s worst nightmare.

  50. Pokies jackpot helps fund Daniel Andrews’ re-election

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/pokies-jackpot-helps-fund-daniel-andrews-re-election-20200203-p53x7u.html

    Victoria’s pokies and pubs lobby gave a record $761,000 to the Daniel Andrews-led ALP as part of a $1 million campaign to deny the Greens the balance of power at the state election last November.

    Australian Electoral Commission disclosures on Monday revealed the Australian Hotels Association (AHA) made the extraordinary donation to state Labor in 2018-19 while also giving $190,000 to the Victorian Liberals and $181,000 to the Nationals.

    The association’s donation to Labor was a four-fold increase on the $171,000 it gave Labor before the 2014 election.

    As The Age revealed in March, the AHA imposed a special one-off levy on Victorian pub poker machines to bankroll donations to Labor and the Coalition parties. It also funded independents who preferenced the major parties.

    The gaming industry feared that if the Greens won the balance of power in Victoria they would push to implement strong anti-pokies policies, including phasing poker machines out of pubs and clubs and introducing $1 maximum bets.

    The community clubs sector (such as football clubs) also contributed to Labor’s thumping victory and the routing of the Greens, with its first state election campaign aimed at encouraging the 600,000 members of its gaming clubs to vote for the major parties.

    As The Age also revealed AHA has been the main lobby over many years opposing the introduction of a container deposit scheme in Victoria.

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