First up, please note that immediately below this post is a new entry on developments in Queensland, which include one and possibly two looming state by-elections. With that out of the way, a brief collection of polling and preselection news:
• In the wake of a contentious poll on the subject for the Institute of Public Affairs, The West Australian has published a WA-only survey on attitudes towards celebrating Australia Day on January 26, conducted by Perth market research firm Painted Dog Research. This found 65% support for maintaining the current date with 21% opposed, breaking down to 55-26 among those aged 18 to 39, 67-20 among those 40 to 59, and 78-14 among those 60 and over. Although substantial, the headline figure is narrower than the 71-11 margin recorded by the Dynata poll for the IPA, which primed respondents with two leading questions on being proud of Australia. This poll was conducted from 842 respondents drawn from an online panel, with no field work dates provided.
• Cory Bernardi has followed through on his announcement last year that he would resign to the Senate, which means his South Australian seat returns to a nominee of the Liberal Party, for which he won the seat from the top of the ticket at the 2016 double dissolution. The Australian ($) reports the matter will be decided on February 1, from a field including Morry Bailes, managing partner at Tindall Gask Bentley Lawyers and former president of the Law Council of Australia; state upper house MP Andrew McLachlan; and Michael van Dissel, former state party treasurer. Bailes has the support of conservatives including Mathias Cormann and South Australian federal MPs Tony Pasin and Nicolle Flint, which is presumably good to have.
• Heavy duty psephological pundit Mark the Ballot examines the deficiencies of polling before the May federal election, to the extent that the industry’s lack of transparency makes the matter knowable. The thrust of the analysis is that the pollsters’ models were “not complex enough to adequately overcome the sampling frame problems”, the latter reflecting the fact that surveying methods in the modern age cannot plausibly claim to produce genuinely random samples of the voting population. As well as the models by which the pollsters convert their data into vote shares, this lack of “complexity” may equally arise from herding, the unacknowledged use of smoothing techniques such as rolling averages, and over-use of the same respondents in online panels.
‘Player One says:
Sunday, January 26, 2020 at 10:24 am
Boerwar @ #88 Sunday, January 26th, 2020 – 10:13 am
P1 and facts!
You were demonstrated to be wrong. Deal with it like an adult.’
In this case the fact under discussion was your supposed ‘fascination with the right’ with Hitler was raised by Firefox and Sanders.
You were demonstrated to be wrong. Deal with it like an adult.
nath @ #98 Sunday, January 26th, 2020 – 7:24 am
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Weimar_Republic
Australia is not the only country facing the catastrophic consequences of climate change …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-26/locust-plague-in-east-africa-united-call-for-international-help/11901468
You wonder what it will actually take before some people start to get the message 🙁
Lizzie
The article by George Meglogenis is a very good read. And is a reminder that federally Labor can’t rely on state of Victoria for its political fortunes. As its vote is Currently maxed out. Needs to be at 15 million people for it to tip the scales
So Labor needs to Continue to work very hard to win over Qld and NSW going forward.
I understand that after the Nov 1932 elections Hitler was reported to say “We didn’t win but we didn’t lose”.
Billy Snedden should have sued for copyright infringement.
Boerwar @ #101 Sunday, January 26th, 2020 – 10:32 am
You are conflating two separate threads. I think I will stop responding to you until you cool down.
According to Borewaw Johnson’s Tories did not win the UK elections.
According to The Guardian:
‘The election resulted in a Conservative landslide majority win of 80 seats, their largest majority since 1987, with the party making a net gain of 48 seats and winning 43.6% of the vote — the highest percentage by any party since 1979.’
Only 43.6% of the vote. Definitely didn’t win, Borewaw says so!
Prat!
Good Morning
Victoria
Correct. Labor needs to have a long term strategy to deal with communicating its message.
First off the agenda is authenticity and trust. No point getting your message out there if there is no trust.
This is why Joel Fitzgibbon and his pushing coal is such a disaster for Labor.
You can’t be for the environment and for coal.
The Democrats have a similar dilemma in Pennsylvania with fracking.
Biden and Buttigieg are for continuing fracking. Sanders and Warren want a nation wide ban.
Victoria
I’m pleased you picked that up. I’m surprised that no one else has. It seems that in order to win government, Labor will have to win Qld. If this is the reason they seem to be “moving to the right”, it’s not easy for us in the south to sympathise with.
I’m glad I live in Victoria!
Lizzie
I am not sure moving to the right is the correct move for Labor in Queensland.
Labor won government from Opposition on the state level by moving left.
The appeal was not to be Campell Newman.
Lizzie
We really do inhabit a different space here in the state of Victoria.
DP
‘Germany of the 1930s was a complete basket case.’
I was talking about the society and the political structures. Germans at the time were amongst the most educated people in the world.
This isn’t counter intuitive – a lot of Nazi ideals were based on what was regarded as good science at the time (one of the reasons that doctors had the highest Nazi membership of any profession). We may regard eugenics etc as junk science now, but it was main stream then.
DP
And I did correct myself – the 1920s, particularly post hyper inflation, were regarded as a bit of a Golden Age for Germany. The economy recovered well and many of the nastier bits of Versailles were either removed or renegotiated. Of course, The Depression – which wasn’t unique to Germany, of course – destroyed that.
Guytaur
Goodness you really dont have a bloody clue.
Being progressive as it is in Victoria is not playing well for Labor elsewhere.
*** To be fair, nath corrected me and I accepted the correction.
Lizzie – I am inclined to agree. Was only musing last night that much as Melbourne might be my family’s natural political home, our votes do more good for the progressive cause up here north of the Tweed. It’s the less-rusted and less-propagandized fringe of the love-it-or-leave crowd they have to move and win, not me, and before you can start talking up the benefits of things like inclusion and diversity, new approaches to energy and the essential decencies and securities of a genuine social democracy, you have to get them sufficiently mollified to pull their heads out of their social media silos and start listening, hence the blandishments.
Well, I hope that’s the idea.
Victoria
You don’t have a clue. You forget why Labor won from Opposition in Queensland and why.
Campbell Newman going right was rejected at the ballot box with a progressive agenda.
Labor Queensland may need to be more conservative than the Greens in Victoria but be in no doubt going right did not win them the election.
Turn on sarcasm font.
lizzie @ #109 Sunday, January 26th, 2020 – 10:40 am
Actually, this is quite well understood, it is a strong subtext (if not stated outright, for obvious reasons) in Labor’s post-election review.
Labor is trying to balance buying votes in Queensland and NSW (by supporting coal) with the fact that doing so will lose it substantial votes elsewhere. And they will tend to lose these votes from the left of the party – i.e. to the Greens and other minor “progressive” parties, which is why Labor (and mostly, the Labor right) spends so much time and effort demonizing them.
The problem with this strategy is that, of course, is that it will have to (eventually) be reflected in their policies to have any real meaning, which will therefore be far more pro-coal than they should be.
Which means, in the end, not only will Labor probably still not get elected, but this kind of futile #MeToo policy gives the government cover to be even more gung-ho for coal.
This is not a good situation.
zoom,
OK. It’s all good.
Guytaur
Do you understand the distinction re federal and state?
You continually conflate the two.
DP
Well, I did f*** up to start with!!
Victoria
Nah. I use state level to point out why going right is wrong in Queensland. I also take note of Wayne Swan’s tweets. He is from Queensland and a seasoned Labor political operator of the right faction.
His tweets are way to the left of what we see posted by Labor right partisans on this blog.
January 1: in future Treaty Day and Republic Day as well as Federation Day and Constitution Day. Maybe then a suitable day to celebrate.
Earliest date by which the first two can be accomplished: LNPxit + 5 years, so late 2020s at soonest.
January 26 can then be Foundation Day Day for Sydney and NSW – mix of commemoration, contemplation and mourning.
“We share a dream and sing with one voice”
Yeah ! right ?
Guytaur:
No, they didn’t.
They won government on not being Campbell Newman, and pretty much just that. Campbell Newman run one of the most ruthlessly right-wing government’s in recent Australian history. You don’t need to be very left-wing to not be Campbell Newman.
Palazczuk’s campaign in 2015 was as small target as they come. I honestly cannot recall a single policy besides reversing the Newman government’s bastardry. Noone in Labor even really thought they were going to win – the goal was to win back as many seats as possible so they could be a viable opposition next term. However Newman’s overreach, Abbott’s unpopularity as PM (the 2015 election literally happened days after Prince Philip’s knighthood), and the Palazczuk opposition’s discipline let them scrape through to a shock victory.
AL
Corruption was a biggie. In fact its why Palasczcuk had to reject Adani halfway through her campaign.
Be in no doubt however. That so called small target strategy meant the move to the right by Campell Newman was rejected at the ballot box.
An issue for Labor is that it is the only single Party able to form Government.
The Liberals are always in coalition with the Nationals, even when they last held enough seats to form a Government by themselves they still formed a coalition Government.
As a result Labor’s platform must cover the entire Nation whilst the Liberals focus mainly on the cities and let the Nationals deal with the regions.
This city/country divide allows for a simple logical division for the Coalition, whilst on the Left no such simple division exists and so Labor continues alone.
guytaur says:
Sunday, January 26, 2020 at 10:42 am
…”Labor won government from Opposition on the state level by moving left.
The appeal was not to be Campell Newman”…
……………………………..
Nobody gave a shit about Labor.
Two days before Newman’s ousting I was involved in a casual conversation with strangers at the front counter of a Coles supermarket in suburban Brisbane.
The general consensus was that Newman was a dangerous idiot and had to go.
I thought at the time that the attitudes so openly discussed were fairly unusual, and wondered if it may be a sign of something improbable happening.
No perceived move “to the left” from Labor was mentioned, in fact Labor wasn’t mentioned.
Palaszczuk was as stunned as everyone else on election night, and if you suggested to her that she won government because of a campaign of progressivism, she would laugh in your face and tell you to stop being stupid.
There was a reference upthread to opposition to water recycling. got me reading a few old stories about it which spoke to one serious, clincher argument in favor of recycling. 🙂
Any town drawing its drinking water from a river, or a dam fed by a river with a town on it is already doing the “toilet to tap” thing since towns upstream dump their treated effluent into it. But somehow that’s ok because its been in a river??? People are weird.
Asha Leu @ #127 Sunday, January 26th, 2020 – 8:00 am
Labor didn’t have the numbers in Parliament to run anything else. 🙂
Jesus Christ, Guytaur, there’s a difference between rejecting a move to the right and endorsing a move to the left.
The point is the Queensland Labor made no discernible move to the left during the 2012-2015 term. Nor a move to the right, either, I should add. They rejected some of Bligh’s unpopular privatization decisions (in the sense of, “that was bad, we shouldn’t have done that”, not “we are going to reverse this once were in office again”), and that’s about it.
It was the Newman government that lurched headfirst into authoritarianism and austerity after Newman presented himself a sensible moderate during his own incredibly small target campaign as opposition leader. Nothing about the public wanting Labor to be more left-wing, just fear and anger about everything the LNP was doing.
For sure. What does that have to do with moving to the left or right.
That happened in the 2017 election, not 2015.
Guytaur
You would be the last person I would go to for advice on any political strategy
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #128 Sunday, January 26th, 2020 – 11:08 am
I used to think this also. But I just don’t think it is true any longer. And until Labor realizes this, we will probably not have a left wing government.
Barney
A good reason why Labor should be in favour of electoral reform to encourage multiparty government.
Labor’s problem is that its old constituency is split due to the environment means job losses narrative.
As long as Labor accepts this narrative then the job losses in places like Queensland for the coal industry will be used to wedge Labor by the LNP ad infinitum.
Bill Shorten got this and tried to do a fence sitting exercise. His only problem was accepting the LNP narrative on the timeline of the transition away from coal. They said Labor was just like the Greens in wanting to end coal industry jobs overnight.
All the posts from the pro coal people on this sight have repeated this lie.
Labor just like the Greens had no intention of having no transition for the coal workers. Its never been coal jobs or the environment. Labor needs to make that crystal clear. Its always been get the workers new jobs no scrapheap for them.
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, January 26, 2020 at 9:21 am
Lynda Clarey @ #2031 Saturday, January 25th, 2020 – 9:32 pm
I worked in the NDIS as a support coordinator essentially to broker services to achieve the clients goals. I also advocated for those stranded in small federally funded mental health programs to be given access. The NDIS staff at that time were clueless about many disabilities particularly psychosocial ones and rejected many deserving folk. One example a depressed woman with schizophrenia was asked why she couldn’t get out of bed, shower and clean her home. She replied she couldn’t and was told but you could if you wanted to. Depressed and devalued a decent person even more. The bastardisation of the NDIS to give the government a surplus is the worst I’ve seen in 35 years of health and community service.
This is the abhorrent and bordering of criminal negligence as a result of the neo-lib mindset of our polity.
How can voters allow this within their own community ..???
———————————
I wouldn’t call that criminal negligence but it underscores failings in the recruitment process, training and stock standard ignorance. This isn’t helped by the use of recruiters that have no experience or qualifications in Disability services.
Asha Leu @ #132 Sunday, January 26th, 2020 – 8:12 am
Well, he seemed to be suggesting the other day that liking someone more meant you must hate the other person. 🙂
AL
Look at Hanson. One Nation supporters want a “People’s Bank”.
This whole you can’t be progressive in Queensland is a crock.
All Labor needs is strong policies and not buy the demonisation of their policies and to let voters know that.
Be authentic. It means way way more than anything else when gaining voters trust.
Its why Corbyn rose in popularity its why Sanders and Trump rose in popularity.
Its why Jacqui Lambie got back in the Senate.
Voters just don’t think Labor is authentic when it says its for expanding coal mining. They know Labor will listen to the science.
Labor doesn’t have to be the communist party to be progressive in Queensland.
guytaur @ #135 Sunday, January 26th, 2020 – 8:14 am
Really???
The problem for the Left at the moment is that they represent less than 50% support from voters.
Changing the electoral system won’t effect that!
Gollsays:
I reckon that would make a great couple of lines for the national anthem 🙂
Barney
The right represents less than that.
The problem is Labor people seem to think the centre is far more right than it actually is.
Do some populist policies. Contrast to the LNP. Don’t be LNP lite.
Its not hard. You still govern in the centre. You just don’t pretend the whole electorate votes right wing.
“I reckon that would make a great couple of lines for the national anthem ”
There are probably a lot of people out there who think it IS the national anthem. 🙂
But speaking of good lines for a national anthem,,,how about this:
“For those who’ve come across the seas
We’ve boundless plains to share
With courage let us all combine
To Advance Australia Fair”
World Health Organization (WHO)
@WHO
·
1h
WHO’s risk assessment of the new #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) situation has not changed:
very high in #China
high at the regional level
moderate at the global level
WHO’s situation report 25 January 2020 http://bit.ly/2TVLKMr
I see there’s a lot of Labor slagging going on here.
I don’t like it.
It’s un-Astrayan and not PB kosher.
I want it to stop.
Southern States in America sometimes elect Democrat Governors but that doesn’t equal supporting a Democrat in the White House and when there is a government on the nose like Newman or any other case has virtually nothing to do with the opposition. Jeff Kennett was never a popular Liberal leader during the 1980s and couldn’t even beat Kirner in the preferred premier ratings yet that had no baring on the 1992 election result.
In QLD the LNP has 23 seats , if they lose 6 or more seats in QLD ,the Libs/nats will not get a majority government and will end up in opposition
Mexican
Yes. Kennett used time to get accepted by the electorate.
Thus he was not seen as crazy when the Its Time factor kicked in for Labor in Victoria.
He worked hard to move the Overton Window.
guytaur @ #141 Sunday, January 26th, 2020 – 8:27 am
So, Labor should continue doing what their doing, but they must listen to guytaur in determining what is acceptable and what is too much. 😆
Asha Leu:
[‘They won government on not being Campbell Newman, and pretty much just that.’]
That’s true and arguably the tipping point came when he appointed a relatively junior judge (Tim Carmody) as chief justice, to the vexation of most of the judiciary, including significantly McMurdo, P (as she then was). Although a reasonable mayor of Brisbane, having been adjudged in 2010 the fifth-best mayor in the world, Newman could not make the transition to premier. He was an angry man, who was constantly in your face, and on the law and order bandwagon. He had such a convincing win in the March 2012 election that Labor, holding only seven seats, could’ve caucused in a phone booth. All that goodwill dissipated very quickly: he not only lost his seat of Ashgrove but also the 2015 election. With the support of the independent Peter Wellington, Annastacia Palaszczuk was able to form government.
mundo
Perhaps we could adopt Pauline Pantsdown’s – I Don’t Like It as the national anthem ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDwsBv-jjQU