Poll respondents with attitudes

New poll results from around the place on attitudes towards climate change, Australia Day and things-in-general.

An off week in the fortnightly cycles for both Newspoll and Essential Research, but we do have three fairly detailed sets of attitudinal polling doing the rounds:

• Ipsos has results from its monthly Issues Monitor series, which records a dramatic escalation in concern about the environment. Asked to pick the three most salient out of 19 listed issues, 41% chose the environment, more than any other. This was up ten on last month’s survey, and compares with single digit results that were not uncommonly recorded as recently as 2015. Cost of living and health care tied for second on 31%, respectively down three and up six on last month. The economy was up one to 25%, and crime down one to 21%. On “party most capable to manage environmental issues across the generations”, generations up to and including X gave the highest rating to the Greens, towards whom the “boomer” and “builder” generations showed their usual hostility. The poll was conducted online from a sample of 1000.

• A poll by YouGov for the Australian Institute finds 79% expressing concern about climate change, up five since a similar poll in July. This includes 47% who were very concerned, up ten. Among those aged 18 to 34, only around 10% expressed a lack of concern. Fifty-seven per cent said Australia was experiencing “a lot” of climate change impact, up 14%; 67% said climate change was making bushfires worse, with 26% disagreeing; and only 33% felt the Coalition had done a good job “managing the climate crisis” (a potentially problematic turn of phrase for those who did not allow that there was one), compared with 53% who took the contrary view. The poll was conducted January 8 to 12 from a sample of 1200; considerable further detail is available through the full report.

• The Institute of Public Affairs has a poll on Australia Day and political correctness from Dynata, which has also done polling on the other side of the ideological aisle for the aforesaid Australia Institute. This finds 71% agreeing that “Australia Day should be celebrated on January 26” (55% strongly, 16% somewhat), and 68% agreeing Australia had become too politically correct (42% strongly, 26% somewhat). Disagreement with both propositions was at just 11%. A very substantial age effect was evident here, but not for the two further questions relating to pride in Australia, which received enthusiastic responses across the board. I have my doubts about opening the batting on this particular set of questions by asking if respondents were “proud to be an Australian”, which brings Yes Minister to mind. Perhaps the most interesting thing about the poll is the demographic detail on the respondents, who were presumably drawn from an online panel. This shows women were greatly over-represented in the younger cohorts, while the opposite was true among the old; and that the sample included rather too many middle-aged people on low incomes. The results would have been weighted to correct for this, but some of these weightings were doing some fairly heavy lifting (so to speak).

Elsewhere, if you’re a Crikey subscriber you can enjoy my searing expose on the electoral impact of Bridget McKenzie’s sports sports. I particularly hope you appreciate the following line, as it was the fruit of about two days’ work:

When polling booth and sport grants data are aggregated into 2288 local regions designated by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, there turns out to be no correlation whatsoever between the amount of funding they received and how much they swung to or against the Coalition.

I worked this out by identifying the approximate target locations of 518 grants, building a dataset recording grant funding and booth-level election swings for each of the ABS’s Statistical Local Area 2 regions, and using linear regression to calculate how much impact the grants had on the Coalition vote. The verdict: absolutely none whatsoever.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,074 comments on “Poll respondents with attitudes”

  1. Asha Leu @ #1893 Saturday, January 25th, 2020 – 5:05 pm

    GG:

    Believe it or not, every so often I put down my soy latte and ride my bike
    out of my inner-city lair to engage with these fabled “mainstream Australians” you speak of.

    Either it works, in which the Coalition go full jingo to compete with Labor, which of course they’ll do with triumphant success. More likely, actually nationalistic types will just roll their eyes at this inner-city lefty trying to envoke US-style patriotism in a tone-deaf effort to prove how much of a true-blue ‘strayan she is.

    That moment when you realise the “wokes’ don’t actually influence elections despite their rhetoric.

    Feel the force Ash!

  2. The pledge that is being talked about is the one taken by new citizens at their citizenship cermonies:

    “From this time forward, I pledge my loyalty to Australia and its people, whose democratic beliefs I share, whose rights and liberties I respect, and whose laws I will uphold and obey.”

    What on earth is objectionable about democracy, rights, liberties, loyalty to your fellow human beings and obeying democratically enacted laws? It doesn’t mention God, mateship or even the flag!

    The pledge is a very bare bones statement of things acceptable across the whole political spectrum. When I first heard it, my immediate reactions was “Well they got that pretty right, given the jingoistic rubbish that usually passes for such pledges”. I usually cringe at such statements, but I don’t at this one.

    Also, I’d like to hear an analysis of the groups of voters that Labor will drive away to the LNP by talking up the pledge – spoiler: there aren’t any. It also neatly works towards neutralising the LNP and PHON trying to characterise Labor as dangerous radicals.

  3. Greensborough Growler @ #1889 Saturday, January 25th, 2020 – 4:59 pm

    I’m delighted to see you are, once again, off side with labor’s initiatives and intentions.

    It makes the effort all worthwhile.

    If the Liberals had come up with this idea, you would be saying the same as everyone else is – i.e. that this is a really crappy idea.

    But for you, Labor can never do anything wrong.

  4. The Greens are, as usual, quite right.
    The Greens New Deal CO2 Emissions Strike pledge to cut their own personal emissions is a far more practical pledge than talking about love of country and democracy.

  5. AJM
    Some people are very easy to upset. Progressives like to see themselves as intelligent but the way many react leaves me sometimes wondering.

  6. Player One @ #1903 Saturday, January 25th, 2020 – 5:14 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1889 Saturday, January 25th, 2020 – 4:59 pm

    I’m delighted to see you are, once again, off side with labor’s initiatives and intentions.

    It makes the effort all worthwhile.

    If the Liberals had come up with this idea, you would be saying the same as everyone else is – i.e. that this is a really crappy idea.

    But for you, Labor can never do anything wrong.

    Couldn’t you just work in a “Coal hugger” or “CC Denier” just for the folks that don’t give a fuck? My P1 “Bullshit bingo Card” is almost full.

  7. Plibersek circa 2011:

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/love-of-australia-is-about-more-than-lifestyle-20110928-1kwfd.html

    Every Australian should know the pledge.

    Every Australian child should learn it by heart and say it regularly at school.

    American kids pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States and all that it represents; so should Australian children know and understand our nation’s citizenship pledge.

    Indeed all Australians should understand their rights and responsibilities as a citizen of our great nation.

  8. Tanya Plibersek
    @tanya_plibersek

    The pledge:

    Four legs good, two legs better! All Animals Are Equal. But Some Animals Are More Equal Than Others. Especially if they are Australian Animals.

  9. It’s just a shame these pollies and their partisans have reduced this countrys standing to a joke rather than a country to be proud of.

  10. Mexicanbeemr
    “Morrison must thinks people are stupid if he thinks they will buy his claim that he had no involvement with the idea of using sports grants for political purposes.”

    I have the exact same sentiment. Which is why Bridget resents any notion that she should have to resign. Although her fingerprints are all over it, she’s just the patsy for this systematic abuse of sports grants.

  11. “Sources have told The Weekend Australian that a senior adviser to the Prime Minister worked closely with party strategists and the Liberal Party secretariat before presenting the funding allocations under the grants program to Senator McKenzie’s office.”

    What! Oh no! I’m shocked! Next you’ll tell me there’s gambling in Casablanca!

  12. American kids pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States and all that it represents

    In point of fact it’s optional.

    And stupid besides. Schools are for learning, not blindly reciting loyalty oaths.

  13. Greensborough Growler

    Fuck off. Other agendas my arse. Cunning plans on the other hand I would be prepared to believe they have in large numbers.

  14. What! Oh no! I’m shocked! Next you’ll tell me there’s gambling in Casablanca!

    Morrison and party office’s fingerprints are so obviously all over this. Why else would he have left this to fester for so long instead of just firing her arse once it became obvious just how deep in the shit she is.

  15. Asha Leu @ #1917 Saturday, January 25th, 2020 – 5:35 pm

    What! Oh no! I’m shocked! Next you’ll tell me there’s gambling in Casablanca!

    Morrison and party office’s fingerprints are so obviously all over this. Why else would he have left this fester for so long instead of firing her arse once it become obvious just how deep in the shit she is.

    Just imagine the magnitude of the inducements now being offered to McKenzie to go quietly.

    This has 4Corners all over it.

  16. It’s hard to know who to believe.

    BANDIT XRAY ⚔
    @BANDIT_XRAY
    ·
    50m
    Voice message from a medical staff in #Wuhan. “There are more than 100,000 infected. The government provides no medical supplies… People are dying right in front of our eyes…Don’t EVER trust the government. We are on our own.”

  17. A R
    And how long will it be before the Coalition moves on to it being every day and compulsory ? I mean that shows how much they love the country and if you are against that then ya must be bloody hate ‘Straya’ mate” or something. That sort of bidding war is heaven for them and they’ll every shoutback radio and Mordor Media outlet backing them to the hilt.

    Of course the real victims will be these guys. They’ll be out of business 🙂

  18. The ABC has been playing “We are one, but we are many,” several times a day for weeks. I imagine it’s to lead into Australia Day.
    I really used to like it as a possible anthem, but they’ve spoilt it for me. 🙁

  19. ‘Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, January 25, 2020 at 5:16 pm

    Boerwar @ #1898 Saturday, January 25th, 2020 – 5:11 pm

    Rex has two crazy thoughts: that he is not accountable for his emissions and that the Greens should not lead a CO2 emissions strike.

    Mate, look at what going in to bat for the coal cartel has reduced you to…’

    Rex acknowledges that by having the world’s largest housing footprint, by driving private cars, by flying, by using high energy foods, by not wearing out clothes he is feeding the demand that is causing China to use coal-fired power.
    He is also quite sincere that while extinction rebellions, climate strikes and bushfire protests DO make a practical difference, actually reducing CO2 emissions by halving his housing footprint, getting rid of his car and not flying at all will NOT make a difference. Quite sincere.
    Plus, Rex is quite sincere when he says that all the Greens doing the same under the inspired leadership of Di Natale, would NOT make a difference either. Quite sincere.

    The question is why Rex then turns around and bites the hand that feeds the Greens’ world record consumption patterns: the coal cartel.

    Rex sincerely believes that hugging coal after it has been sent from Australia, burned in China, and then shipped back to Australia in the form of embedded coal-fired CO2 emissions in what Rex consumes does not count.

    So Rex prattles innocently about coal huggers, Trump, Plimer and assorted straw persons of dubious repute. As if what Trump or Plimer say has any real world value at all!

    But the ONE thing Rex and the Greens will never do is hold themselves accountable for their emissions. The want OTHERS to be accountable for the Greens’ emissions.

  20. The pledge:

    From this time forward, I pledge my loyalty to Australia and its people, whose democratic beliefs I share, whose rights and liberties I respect, and whose laws I will uphold and obey.

  21. ‘lizzie says:
    Saturday, January 25, 2020 at 5:40 pm

    It’s hard to know who to believe.

    BANDIT XRAY ⚔
    @BANDIT_XRAY
    ·
    50m
    Voice message from a medical staff in #Wuhan. “There are more than 100,000 infected. The government provides no medical supplies… People are dying right in front of our eyes…Don’t EVER trust the government. We are on our own.” ‘

    So, how did they count to 100,000?

    You are right. We don’t know what is happening over there.

  22. If we are now expected to “respect and uphold all laws”, on what basis does Ms Plibersek intend to campaign for a future Labor government?

    VOTE 1 LABOR: WE WILL CHANGE NOTHING!

  23. We should have the full celebration tomorrow.

    No PC fluffy ceremonies.

    I want a couple of black fellas shot… some of their women raped and some others chained up.

    We need celebrate this with our kids and be proud of our cultures.

    Boerwar @ #1929 Saturday, January 25th, 2020 – 5:51 pm

    ‘Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, January 25, 2020 at 5:16 pm

    Boerwar @ #1898 Saturday, January 25th, 2020 – 5:11 pm

    Rex has two crazy thoughts: that he is not accountable for his emissions and that the Greens should not lead a CO2 emissions strike.

    Mate, look at what going in to bat for the coal cartel has reduced you to…’

    Rex acknowledges that by having the world’s largest housing footprint, by driving private cars, by flying, by using high energy foods, by not wearing out clothes he is feeding the demand that is causing China to use coal-fired power.
    He is also quite sincere that while extinction rebellions, climate strikes and bushfire protests DO make a practical difference, actually reducing CO2 emissions by halving his housing footprint, getting rid of his car and not flying at all will NOT make a difference. Quite sincere.
    Plus, Rex is quite sincere when he says that all the Greens doing the same under the inspired leadership of Di Natale, would NOT make a difference either. Quite sincere.

    The question is why Rex then turns around and bites the hand that feeds the Greens’ world record consumption patterns: the coal cartel.

    Rex sincerely believes that hugging coal after it has been sent from Australia, burned in China, and then shipped back to Australia in the form of embedded coal-fired CO2 emissions in what Rex consumes does not count.

    So Rex prattles innocently about coal huggers, Trump, Plimer and assorted straw persons of dubious repute. As if what Trump or Plimer say has any real world value at all!

    But the ONE thing Rex and the Greens will never do is hold themselves accountable for their emissions. The want OTHERS to be accountable for the Greens’ emissions.

    I don’t vote for coal huggers, but you do.

  24. Greensborough Growler

    I don’t exchange body fluids with a lump of coal. But, you obviously do.

    Alas I am a coal virgin. Surprised you still use condoms though.

  25. It’s hard to know who to believe.

    BANDIT XRAY ⚔
    @BANDIT_XRAY
    ·
    50m
    Voice message from a medical staff in #Wuhan. “There are more than 100,000 infected. The government provides no medical supplies… People are dying right in front of our eyes…Don’t EVER trust the government. We are on our own.”

    Skeptical, because that sounds like zombie-apocalypse level stuff.

    And because I don’t think a Chinese citizen would risk committing something like “Don’t EVER trust the government” to the permanent record (or that the Chinese government would allow that sort of sentiment to get out in the first place).

  26. The Greens are obviously in full denial about the climate emergency.

    They are sticking to their housing footprint, their cars, their o/s flights, their high energy food consumption, their clothes consumption and so on like limpets.

    No Grand Climate Emergency Pledge from the Greens! No climate praxis!

    Just, um, ‘thought leadership.’

  27. And in true Poll Bludger style, the usual suspects have now turned up to transform what was originally a heated yet informed and respectful argument into a pathetic war of snark and insults

  28. Rex
    Most amusing.
    The Greens are Pontius Pilate coal huggers. They hug the embedded coal-fired CO2 emissions in their houses, their cars, their flights, their food, their clothes, their numerous consumables…

  29. The Greens are the sort of chaps who would go into a brothel, create a demand for certain services, then bad mouth the service providers for being Greens huggers.

  30. ajm says:
    Saturday, January 25, 2020 at 5:12 pm

    …”What on earth is objectionable about democracy, rights, liberties, loyalty to your fellow human beings and obeying democratically enacted laws? It doesn’t mention God, mateship or even the flag!”…

    …………………………..

    How about, because it demands the forced indoctrination of other people’s children?

  31. Julia Zemiro
    @julia_zemiro
    ·
    13m
    @tanya_plibersek
    there are literally dozens of other issues more important than this in education. Disappointing. Retrograde. A low ebb.

  32. GG:

    The fact that Republican senators are locking in behind Trump and will vote against the impeachment tells me these politicans have done the calculus and believe they have more chance of surviving long term by staying “loyal”.

    The calculus for the 20 or so facing election this year is that if they oppose Mr Trump (or are anything other than fully sycophantic towards him) then they will face a primary challenge which they will certainly lose, and will hence lose their Senate seat by default, as a result of being prevented from standing in the election.

    This is why primaries and similar are a bad idea. It turns out there is virtue in smoke filled rooms!

  33. “From this time forward, I pledge my loyalty to Australia and its people, whose democratic beliefs I share, whose rights and liberties I respect, and whose laws I will uphold and obey.”

    How exactly does a 6/7/8/9 year old understand what these things actually mean?

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