An off week in the fortnightly cycles for both Newspoll and Essential Research, but we do have three fairly detailed sets of attitudinal polling doing the rounds:
• Ipsos has results from its monthly Issues Monitor series, which records a dramatic escalation in concern about the environment. Asked to pick the three most salient out of 19 listed issues, 41% chose the environment, more than any other. This was up ten on last month’s survey, and compares with single digit results that were not uncommonly recorded as recently as 2015. Cost of living and health care tied for second on 31%, respectively down three and up six on last month. The economy was up one to 25%, and crime down one to 21%. On “party most capable to manage environmental issues across the generations”, generations up to and including X gave the highest rating to the Greens, towards whom the “boomer” and “builder” generations showed their usual hostility. The poll was conducted online from a sample of 1000.
• A poll by YouGov for the Australian Institute finds 79% expressing concern about climate change, up five since a similar poll in July. This includes 47% who were very concerned, up ten. Among those aged 18 to 34, only around 10% expressed a lack of concern. Fifty-seven per cent said Australia was experiencing “a lot” of climate change impact, up 14%; 67% said climate change was making bushfires worse, with 26% disagreeing; and only 33% felt the Coalition had done a good job “managing the climate crisis” (a potentially problematic turn of phrase for those who did not allow that there was one), compared with 53% who took the contrary view. The poll was conducted January 8 to 12 from a sample of 1200; considerable further detail is available through the full report.
• The Institute of Public Affairs has a poll on Australia Day and political correctness from Dynata, which has also done polling on the other side of the ideological aisle for the aforesaid Australia Institute. This finds 71% agreeing that “Australia Day should be celebrated on January 26” (55% strongly, 16% somewhat), and 68% agreeing Australia had become too politically correct (42% strongly, 26% somewhat). Disagreement with both propositions was at just 11%. A very substantial age effect was evident here, but not for the two further questions relating to pride in Australia, which received enthusiastic responses across the board. I have my doubts about opening the batting on this particular set of questions by asking if respondents were “proud to be an Australian”, which brings Yes Minister to mind. Perhaps the most interesting thing about the poll is the demographic detail on the respondents, who were presumably drawn from an online panel. This shows women were greatly over-represented in the younger cohorts, while the opposite was true among the old; and that the sample included rather too many middle-aged people on low incomes. The results would have been weighted to correct for this, but some of these weightings were doing some fairly heavy lifting (so to speak).
Elsewhere, if you’re a Crikey subscriber you can enjoy my searing expose on the electoral impact of Bridget McKenzie’s sports sports. I particularly hope you appreciate the following line, as it was the fruit of about two days’ work:
When polling booth and sport grants data are aggregated into 2288 local regions designated by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, there turns out to be no correlation whatsoever between the amount of funding they received and how much they swung to or against the Coalition.
I worked this out by identifying the approximate target locations of 518 grants, building a dataset recording grant funding and booth-level election swings for each of the ABS’s Statistical Local Area 2 regions, and using linear regression to calculate how much impact the grants had on the Coalition vote. The verdict: absolutely none whatsoever.
Greensborough Growler @ #1737 Saturday, January 25th, 2020 – 7:30 am
Acquitting may also unleash a furious backlash from voters.
Damned if they do. Damned if they don’t.
Serves ’em right for hitching their wagon to the Trump train.
It should also be noted that there are 9 Republican senators on less than 45% approval ratings. If they go, that’s a Dem majority in both the House and Senate.
With that, it’s less of an issue if Trump gets back into the Whitehouse.
If Bridget is taking Morrison’s assurance she is Ok and won’t be sacked at face value, she is about to be disappointed I fear.
sprocket_ says:
Saturday, January 25, 2020 at 11:29 am
2 of Morrison’s staffers were involved in SportsRort according to NewsCorpse.
He says neither he nor his office ‘were involved in decision making’ for the SportsRorts.
Who to believe? 2 liars going head to head? Perhaps that outlet of record, Sunrise can clear things up..
https://mobile.twitter.com/sunriseon7/status/1220811039119265792
________________________________________________
How’s your weekend reshuffle rumour mongering going Bob Sprocket?
Who was the public servant dismissed for favouring a sport he was closely associated with and what was the sport?
lizzie, I think Morrisson’s behaviour on this, and other instances where he refuses to take a small hit in return for better long term prospects would make a good case study for prospect theory:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prospect_theory
Ooh good one OC – got me stumped! I think its something football related.
Time to remind us of the genealogy..
The Lying Rodent begat
The Lying Friar begat
The Lying Waffle begat
The Liar from the Shire
sprocket_ says:
Saturday, January 25, 2020 at 11:37 am
Time to remind us of the genealogy..
The Lying Rodent begat
The Lying Friar begat
The Lying Waffle begat
The Liar from the Shire
_______________________
The Bob Sprocket catechism
Also wondering whether Ros Packer still reckons she got value for the $500,000 donation to the NSW Liberal Party?
Boerwar @ #1742 Saturday, January 25th, 2020 – 8:04 am
She may resign as minister, but there’s no way she’ll resign from the Senate.
Does anyone actually believe that the impeachment process will hurt Trump’s re-election prospects? If there is, perhaps they could explain it to me.
Because from where I’m sitting all it does is outrage the people who already vote dems, and confirms to people who vote Trump that its a sinister witch hunt.
Keeping in mind, we are talking about a guy who just weeks before the 2016 election was caught on tape boasting how he literally sexually assaults women.
Big A Adrian
Looked at the link you gave, and I’m not sure about it. He doesn’t seem willing to admit any wrong (a small hit?) but seems supremely confident that he’ll always win out in the end. I will say that he’s brazen enough to ignore all past failures, rewrite the history, and plough on.
While the focus of the sportsrort saga is the Minister atm, it seems to me that a “Micro managing” personality like Morrison will have been the puppet master behind the sudden redistribution of funds to marginal seats. So, McKenzie holds the ultimate ace in this scandal. She can say she was following instructions.
It has emerged that two of Morrison’s senior staff were involved with the allocation of funds and the fact that Dutton and McCormack are repeating that Mckenzie has not done anything wrong on high rotation indicates to me that the “marketing genius” known as Scotty is up to his eyeballs in this PR disaster. I also find it extremely unlikely that a dismissive personality like Morrison would allow a mere woman to be driving the election strategy of the Government.
Lars would love to be included in the genealogy- perhaps:
The Lying Lars begat…
sprocket_
says:
Saturday, January 25, 2020 at 11:37 am
Time to remind us of the genealogy..
The Lying Rodent begat
The Lying Friar begat
The Lying Waffle begat
The Liar from the Shire
____________________
You could turn that into a nice ‘2 minutes hate’.
sprocket_ says:
Saturday, January 25, 2020 at 11:47 am
Lars would love to be included in the genealogy- perhaps:
The Lying Lars begat…
__________________________________
Whatevs, you lack wit Bob Sprocket. Most of your posts have that catty claws in the arse quality – a sense of humour is a much better weapon – sadly you lack it .
Only in China can they build a thousand-bed hospital (to treat Coronavirus sufferers) in a week:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7925429/Four-Australians-placed-quarantine-suspected-catching-Wuhan-coronavirus.html
Cud
You want the endorsement of the Greens?
To paraphrase the great philosopher Kenobi – that is not the endorsement you’re looking for…
Big A Adrian:
When the impeachment proceedings began, I had hoped this might finally be the tipping point that sees Trump’s support start to evaporate. But there’s been no noticeable change whatsoever in his approval ratings as this whole saga has gone on. Which doesn’t mean the Democrats shouldn’t be going hard on this – they should, if only because its the right thing to do – but I doubt its going to have the slightest impact on Trump’s electoral chances, and may well be helping him out by drawing the focus from all the terrible shit his administration is doing.
A big problem is that, much like with the Mueller investigation, the details of what Trump and his administration are alleged to have done are just too esoteric and complicated for a lot of people to wrap their head around and properly understand what is wrong about it. Its not something simple and snappy like a hotel break-in or a blowjob.
A little-known byway of the Vietnam War:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_J2VwFDV4-g
“So, McKenzie holds the ultimate ace in this scandal. She can say she was following instructions.”
She can, but she won’t. I assume she will eventually step off the front bench without stirring the hen house. Which presumably means also that she will no longer be the deputy leader of the nationals? Then who? Too soon for Barnaby yet?
What will be interesting in impeachment is if the Trump defense goes into Biden and Biden juniors Ukraine activities (which seems likely) what impact that will have in Iowa. If you were a democrat caucus goer would you worry that a candidate under a “corruption cloud” would be the best nominee?
A poor showing by Biden in Iowa and New Hampshire will most likely finish him off before he gets to South Carolina.
As Bob Sprocket used to say back in the day “its not the meme its the repetition that kills you”
Big A Adrian @ #1772 Saturday, January 25th, 2020 – 12:07 pm
Who would have thought anyone could make Bananarby look like an acceptable alternative?
lizzie @ #1708 Saturday, January 25th, 2020 – 7:11 am
The old “just following orders” excuse. Doesn’t wash. Every employment contract I’ve seen says an employee has to comply only with lawful directions. If you’re directed to do something illegal, you don’t do it.
The person who gave the order and the person who followed it can both get in trouble for it.
‘Greensborough Growler says:
Saturday, January 25, 2020 at 11:46 am
While the focus of the sportsrort saga is the Minister atm, it seems to me that a “Micro managing” personality like Morrison will have been the puppet master behind the sudden redistribution of funds to marginal seats. So, McKenzie holds the ultimate ace in this scandal. She can say she was following instructions.
It has emerged that two of Morrison’s senior staff were involved with the allocation of funds and the fact that Dutton and McCormack are repeating that Mckenzie has not done anything wrong on high rotation indicates to me that the “marketing genius” known as Scotty is up to his eyeballs in this PR disaster. I also find it extremely unlikely that a dismissive personality like Morrison would allow a mere woman to be driving the election strategy of the Government.’
Speculation is mounting about exactly which 68 of Scotty from Marketing’s 70 staff were ‘not involved in the decision making.’
The notion that a couple of Scotty’s personal staffers were freelancing on the corrupt distribution of $100 million beggars belief.
Scotty needs to deploy more and betterer lies. The current lies are wearing thin.
Meanwhile, Dutton is sniffing the wind. Silent during the fires. Letting go a few salvoes on McKenzie’s behalf. Sniff. Sniff. Sniff.
Asha Leu:
While I think you’re right about the Mueller investigation, the issue underpinning the impeachment proceeding is pretty simple.
That said… US political polling is notoriously unreliable, particularly this far out from an election, and the fact that Trump’s been historically unpopular since he was inaugurated makes it doubly difficult to gauge just how actual voting intentions are being influenced by all of it. He may well have already lost the support he needs to win way back in 2017, and its just not coming through in the polling. Or he could be in a winning position, and will remain so until election day. So, who knows, really?
The upside is, it seems unlikely the Democrats will be anywhere as complacent about facing Trump as they were in 2016, and one would hope (naively, perhaps) that no matter who wins the nomination, they all come behind the nominee and give it their absolute all in campaigning for them, regardless of whether they are are in the “wrong team.” Defeating Trump is the priority here, not pointless interparty squabbling about whether someone is an out-of-touch socialist or an out-of-touch neoliberal.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-case-confirmed-in-victoria-20200125-p53unk.html
Adam Schiff is SO easy to listen to and understand.
Asha Leu, I knew the impeachment was doomed as soon as I found out there is no tape of him saying those incriminating things (a point Trump helpfully keeps reminding everyone every 5 seconds), not even a transcript of what he said – just a guy who said he heard another guy listen to what Trump said, and a redacted reproduction of the transcript (or something along those lines).
Of course republicans are neck deep in cynical partisan politics here and everyone knows it, but at least if there was clear and indisputable evidence, they would have far more difficulty justifying there cynicism.
To you or me, perhaps. I suspect not so much to many of the voters the Democrats need to court to actually win this thing – especially with the mountain of propaganda the conservative machine is putting out to confuse the issue and contend Trump did nothing wrong.
“The upside is, it seems unlikely the Democrats will be anywhere as complacent about facing Trump as they were in 2016”
agreed. The dems may still win in November. But it will be in spite of the impeachment, not because of it.
Joe Rogan saying he is voting for Bernie Sanders May have more impact than impeachment.
A lot of Trump supporters watch Rogan. A person they trust has given the message don’t vote for Trump. It’s the UFC style crowd.
Greensborough Growler @ #1737 Saturday, January 25th, 2020 – 9:30 am
However standing by Trump is likely to be just as career ending. Republican Senators have no winning play on the job security front. The only choice they’re actually faced with now is whether they want to be decent human beings or not, even if most of them don’t realize it.
But, God, I wish the Democratic field was a bit more inspiring. I’m holding out hope that Buttigeig manages to win Iowa and get a big polling boost as a result – he’s far from a perfect candidate, but strikes me as the most electable of the ones left.
LVR
Note the term “decision making” . I suspect that has a very specific meaning in the public service. One that would allow Scott’s office to do all sorts of things you and I would call “involved in decicion making” though. A bit like The Rodent and his “not being informed” about something. Told about it sure but not officially “informed”.
a r @ #1785 Saturday, January 25th, 2020 – 12:23 pm
The fact that Republican senators are locking in behind Trump and will vote against the impeachment tells me these politicans have done the calculus and believe they have more chance of surviving long term by staying “loyal”.
poroti
I think the SatPaper editorial expands the theme. Resilience means looking after number one, and that’s all Morrison will do.
Happy Saturday all!
Note the term “decision making” . I suspect that has a very specific meaning in the public service.
Good pick up…..
No EGT
I want the Greens to come to terms with the fact that if they want a better country, they need to support Labor. I don’t care about “endorsements”. I care about what is being done in practice.
The single most important thing that the Greens could do (that would make it more likely for Labor to win) is to go out and meet and talk to ordinary voters and educate them – things like pointing out that new technology will make them and their kids better off.
Wow, step away for a while and the LVT/nath dual headed hydra comes the heavy shade throwing at me.
Back to the safety of Twitter for me.
Guytaur, agreed re. Rogan. It’s already ruffling feathers in a bigger way than I imagined.
guytaur @ #1784 Saturday, January 25th, 2020 – 9:21 am
The sort of people you and others like to deride here in Australia. 🙂
Barney
I don’t deride them. That’s an assumption on your part.
Eg. I don’t use the term bogans.
Sprocket
But apparently Lars used humour!!
Who knew?
guytaur @ #1796 Saturday, January 25th, 2020 – 9:39 am
😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆
If I were American I’d turn out to vote and would vote for whoever the Democrats put up against Trump – Sanders, Biden, Warren, Bloomberg, a yellow dog, a black cat, a length of 4 by 2…
Aww zoomster.
I’m hurt!
You’ve tried something different from your usual metronomic quality.