The first Newspoll for the year, and the third under the new YouGov online polling regime, finds Labor opening up a 51-49 lead, after they trailed 52-48 in the poll in early December. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down two to 40%, Labor up three to 36%, the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation down one to 4%. Perhaps more remarkably, Scott Morrison now trails Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister by 43-39, after leading him 48-34 in the previous poll. The damage on Morrison’s personal ratings amounts to an eight point drop on approval to 37% and an eleven point rise on disapproval to 59%. Conversely, Albanese is up six on approval to 46% and down four on disapproval to 37%. The Australian’s report is here; the poll was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1505.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The Guardian has numbers from the first Essential Research poll of the year, but they disappointingly offer nothing on voting intention. What they do provide is corroboration for Newspoll’s finding that Anthony Albanese has taken the lead over Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister, in this case at 39-36, which compares with a 44-28 lead to Morrison when Essential last asked the question in early November. We are told that Scott Morrison is up nine on disapproval to 52% and that Anthony Albanese is up four on approval to 43% – their respective approval and disapproval ratings will have to wait for the full Essential report, which will presumably be with us later today or tomorrow. UPDATE: Morrison is down five on approval to 40%, Albanese is up two on disapproval to 30%. Full report here.
Despite everything, the poll finds 32% approving of Morrison’s handling of the bushfire crisis, which may be related to the fact that his approval rating was down only three among Coalition voters. The Guardian tells us only that 36% strongly disapproved of Morrison’s performance, to which the less strong measure of disapproval will need to be added to produce an equivalent figure for the 32% approval. Fifty-two per cent disagreed that Australia had always had bushfires like those just experienced, and 78% believe the government had been unprepared for them. Efforts to shift blame to the states do not appear to have borne fruit: Gladys Berejiklian’s handling of the bushfires scored 55% approval among New South Wales respondents, while Daniel Andrews was on 58% (these numbers would have come from small sub-samples of around 300 to 400 respondents).
The poll also offers a timely addition to the pollster’s leaders attributes series. The findings for the various attributes in this serious invariably move en bloc with the leaders’ general standing, and Morrison is accordingly down across the board. However, a clear standout is his collapse from 51% to 32% for “good in a crisis”, on which he was up 10% the last time the question was posed in October. Other unfavourable movements related in The Guardian range from a six-point increase in “out of touch with ordinary Australians“ to 62% to a 12 point drop on “visionary” to 30%.
More on all this when the full report is published. The poll was conducted online from Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1081.
Bakunin:
Yup. And when this happened nearly thirty years ago, the Liberal opposition (rightly) didn’t hold back in attacking both Kelly and Keating, Kelly had to resign both from the ministry and parliament (as she should have), and the whole affair was presumably another nail in the coffin for the Hawke/Keating government.
A Labor minister did the wrong thing, and was punished. If McKenzie did indeed break the law, the same thing should happen here. Even if she didn’t, there seems to be enough evidence of inappropriate behaviour to justify her being dropped from the ministry, at least.
It’s how the system is supposed to work.
Well, it is a relief to see RDN hasn’t employed Rex as an adviser yet.
Greens always there to support the Liberals
There is no greater crime than to be knocked off your pedestal, cut down to size, dragged kicking through the mud, and revealed to have feet of clay.
PvO on the sports grants corruption. I wonder if the candidate was even an MP, which would make it even worse than the collusion already is.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/the-biggest-tragedy-of-sports-grants-scandal-is-that-nothing-will-happen/news-story/67fd8b8d1b4689e414c1e350e2b68bcc
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, January 16, 2020 at 3:41 pm
phoenixRED @ #2172 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 3:07 pm
…… and so Trump can run his business out of the White House.
************************************************************
Probably why he spends so much time at Mar-A -Lago instead of the WH. ….. where he is doing all of his criming with foreign leaders and the like away from WH staff ears.
“Tony Burke and Don Farrell are throwing stones. Are they both pure ..?”
Again, a silly comment. So only those pure of heart can criticise?
Let’s wait for Ghandi and Jesus to just show up, shall we?
Out in the car (a newsbreak?) I heard McKenzie say that no one in her department had done anything wrong.
It seemed a rather strange thing for her to say, in the circs.
Displayname:
Dostoevsky wrote Crime and Punishment; you seem to be talking about Punishment, but call it Crime…very odd
Alpha Zero @ #2197 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 2:22 pm
It started big time under Howard (including school ‘chaplains’), and is one of his most pernicious and corrosive legacies.
nath
“Slightly above the fray?”
The Greens are up to their hipster haircuts in the fray.
As rightly stated by others, the ‘whiteboard’ affair ended both Ros Kelly’s ministerial career and parliamentary career. The Libs went after her, frothing at the mouth. McKenzie deserves to be held to the same standard.
Asha Leu @ #2159 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 3:54 pm
I’m committed to Emma when she’s again ready to fight for Lindsay.
Asha Leu,
I struggle to see what the point of commenters like Rex Douglas is, other than coming here for shits and giggles at Labor’s expense (this metric applying to a lot of other regular snarkers at Labor as well). If you think it may be because they believe they can change the conversation with their contributions, then they should realise that the sort of contributions they make will never achieve that end.
If it’s to virtue signal that they are pure, politically, as the political driven snow, we get that, but where has it ever got the politicians who embody those ideals? A pretty consistent 10%. And one Lower House federal seat. Though they may say that that is unimportant and they exist here to be our better angels. However, that thesis falls down as well when you consider how far their political puritanism has gotten them.
Rex Douglas, especially, often points to Dan Andrews as the epitome of the very modern Labor politician, without acknowledging how much more difficult it would be for him in the federal parliament the way it is arrayed right now.
So, you then get back to the question, why do they bother? Maybe, at the end of the day it’s just to be frustrating and to put a spoke in Labor’s wheels.
Alpha Zero @ #2197 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 12:52 pm
Not 3 months ago the ANAO report found damning malpractice in how this govt awarded taxpayer funding to a regional jobs scheme:
https://www.anao.gov.au/work/performance-audit/award-funding-under-the-regional-jobs-and-investment-packages
And don’t forget the half a billion dollars just casually gifted to some obscure non-profit on the Barrier Reef without any governance measures in place.
Asha Leu says: Thursday, January 16, 2020 at 3:54 pm
Well, it is a relief to see RDN hasn’t employed Rex as an adviser yet.
*************************************************
Has anyone seen poor Rex and Richard Di Natale in the same room together ?????
Incredibly silly, considering that – as far as my Google-Fu can determine – neither Farrell and Burke have ever engaged in the sort of behavior McKenzie has been accused of.
C@tmomma @ #2211 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 4:06 pm
Makes me wonder why you bother to post here. Are you still under the impression that this site is a fan club for Labor members only?
nath @ #2143 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 3:32 pm
One-eyed partisans really are a scourge on our politics.
I’d have to assume they are separate people, since if RDN had Rex’s political instincts, the Greens would have been lucky to clear 1% at the last election.
“One-eyed partisans really are a scourge on our politics.”
Says Rex Douglas, utterly oblivious to the irony.
Re. Ms. McKenzie:
Make no bones about it, crooked Bridget should be doing time, prima facie guilty of the type of political corruption that Joh Bjelke-Petersen developed into an art form and who would’ve done time himself had it been known at the relevant time that the jury foreman, Luke Shaw, was a member of the Young Nationals. A retrial was considered but it didn’t proceed on the basis of his (Joh’s) alleged aged-related infirmity. I blame New Zeland (Joh’s birthplace) and the prosecutor for not satisfactorily vetting the jury panel. Bjelke-Petersen’s rule was a terrible blight on the history of Queensland, made good somewhat by Tony Fitzgerald. Ms. McKenzie is merely the latest iteration of Bjelke-Petersen’s legacy.
Tyrannosaurus Rex Douglas:
As are one-eyed trouser snakes!
Asha Leu
says:
Thursday, January 16, 2020 at 4:07 pm
Again, a silly comment. So only those pure of heart can criticise?
Incredibly silly, considering that – as far as my Google-Fu can determine – neither Farrell and Burke have ever engaged in the sort of behavior McKenzie has been accused of.
__________________________
Oh Asha.
Maybe Don Farell acquired his nickname ‘the godfather’ because of a love of Christenings. 🙂
Mavis Davis:
I guess this is sarcasm? If not, it’s an early entry for the most over the top statement of the year.
Just logged on and had a flick through the posts.
I see the usual suspects are defending the environmental wreckers as usual.
Why they don’t just come out and say they hate the environment and will defend the LNP to the hilt so they can continue their wrecking.
Actively suborning voters with blandishments of corruption.
That is straight out illegal.
Lock her up!
K.
I think you’ll find Rex is a Fiona Patten Reason partisan.
In that sense Rex is outside the fray of Labor, Green, and Liberal partisanship.
“Farrell’s political education came via his father – a six-time candidate for the Democratic Labor Party, the party created when the Catholic Right split from the ALP a year after Don was born.”
…
“While Don Farrell’s father Ted was a DLP candidate on six occasions, Don himself has never been in the party.
He is the leading member of the tight-knit Catholic group that’s spent years despising the Left and taking control of the party.”
bakunin @ #2184 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 4:17 pm
She’s doing a good job. I put Reason in my preferences.
bakunin @ #2225 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 4:17 pm
But nowhere near as REASONable as Fiona.
nath:
I presume it was because he’s a very powerful figure in the SA Labor party, which, yes, probably has involved some frowned upon behaviour behind the scenes when it comes to preselections and the like. Unless you can provide some evidence that he’s actually mixed up with organised crime or political corruption (seems funny that I can’t find any evidence of accusations from the Coalition or the media on that front, perhaps they just felt like being nice to him?), its not really comparable to what McKenzie is alleged to have done.
I’ll note too that the nickname is one Farrell happily publicizes himself, which would suggest to me that he probably hasn’t been responsible for a great many mob executions:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-02/labor-godfather-hints-at-political-return/4992810
But still just as much of a partisan. He happily twists every political event to suit his narrow brand of progressivism and his Lib-Lab/Same-Same narrative. Just because he’s not spruiking a particular party doesn’t make him any less of a one-eyed ideologue.
Anyway, stuff the Reason Party. I lost all respect for them when I learnt that they were (partly) funding their party though the sales of synthetic weed.
I like the Reason party. Liked them better as the Sex party, but they’re still pretty good.
Boerwar @ #2183 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 4:16 pm
Parroting Trump isn’t a good look.
Best to leave it at if McKenzie is found guilty of any illegality then may she face the full set of consequences.
Rex,
I stand corrected.
You seemed to be very vocal in your support for Reason a couple of years ago.
E. G. Theodore:
[‘I guess this is sarcasm? If not, it’s an early entry for the most over the top statement of the year.’]
Ted, I don’t do sarcasm(?) – thus I guess I get the gong you’ve most generously awarded.
Asha Leu
says:
Thursday, January 16, 2020 at 4:21 pm
nath:
I presume it was because he’s a very powerful figure in the SA Labor party, which, yes, probably has involved some frowned upon behaviour behind the scenes when it comes to preselections and the like. Unless you can provide some evidence that he’s actually mixed up with organised crime or political corruption
_____________________________
I suppose it all depends how you define such things. The activities of the SDA in assisting Coles and Woolworths in rorting hundreds of millions from their employees would I believe be one of the largest examples of political corruption in Australian history. Then of course there is the absolute power he yields in S.A preselection’s, again because of the tens of thousands of supermarket workers who are effectively hostages of the SDA’s Catholic agenda;
South Australia’s Don Farrell, Tasmania’s Helen Polley and Queensland’s Chris Ketter – all linked to the conservative shop assistants’ union – have signalled their intention to vote against marriage equality in coming days.
bakunin @ #2193 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 4:28 pm
Yes I like a lot of the Reason Partys platform.
Being a non-partisan though allows me to be honest and forthright if they engage in idiocy and hypocrisy.
nath
‘South Australia’s Don Farrell, Tasmania’s Helen Polley and Queensland’s Chris Ketter – all linked to the conservative shop assistants’ union – have signalled their intention to vote against marriage equality in coming days.’
Well, that would be a neat trick.
C@t:
While I do agree with some of your points, you lost me with this line: “this metric applying to a lot of other regular snarkers at Labor as well.”
It suggests that the real problem is not blind partisanship, or a refusal to see the bigger picture outside of ones narrow political perceptions, or substance-free snarking, or twisting the facts to suit a particular agenda, but rather that most awful of crimes: inconveniencing the Labor party.
Quite frankly, there are plenty on the Labor who commit much of the same sins you outlined, and it continues to both bemuse and aggravate me the way so many people (on both sides of this tedious squabble) are so quick to point to bad behavior by the other side while ignoring the more, shall we say, obnoxious individuals in their own ranks.
…it’s nice that, when peg and Rex start to struggle, nath comes in and changes the conversation to save them embarrassment.
Rex Douglas:
[‘Being a non-partisan though allows me to be honest and forthright if they engage in idiocy and hypocrisy.’]
That’s funny: here’s me thinking you’re a Greens’ partisan, evidenced by your surfeit of anti-Labor posts, over a long period. My apologies for getting it so patently wrong.
Isn’t it nice that Malcolm is able to let his hair down at last. 😉
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2020/01/16/malcolm-turnbull-time-climate/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PM%20Extra%20-%2020200116
Mavis @ #2200 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 4:47 pm
Yes, you shouldn’t jump to conclusions.
lizzie:
It’s a shame Malcolm Turnbull was never in a position to do anything about this.
Maybe he should consider a career in politics.
For those wanting ALP to push the pork barrel issue
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/16/bridget-mckenzie-wont-rule-out-using-grants-to-target-marginal-seats
Headline refers to ALP calling for her resignation
Asha
So sad.
:sigh:
This is more likely to bring McKenzie down than the ANAO report and allegations of illegality. Unhappy non-recipients of grants are more likely to make a noise than happy recipients.
The volunteers at this sporting club are unhappy they wasted many hours of work in the mistaken belief that being in a safe Labor electorate would make any difference to their chances of success.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-16/sports-club-angry-at-bridget-mckenzie-government-grants/11873320
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2020/01/16/nsw-bushfires-fish-kill-macleay-river/