The first Newspoll for the year, and the third under the new YouGov online polling regime, finds Labor opening up a 51-49 lead, after they trailed 52-48 in the poll in early December. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down two to 40%, Labor up three to 36%, the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation down one to 4%. Perhaps more remarkably, Scott Morrison now trails Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister by 43-39, after leading him 48-34 in the previous poll. The damage on Morrison’s personal ratings amounts to an eight point drop on approval to 37% and an eleven point rise on disapproval to 59%. Conversely, Albanese is up six on approval to 46% and down four on disapproval to 37%. The Australian’s report is here; the poll was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1505.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The Guardian has numbers from the first Essential Research poll of the year, but they disappointingly offer nothing on voting intention. What they do provide is corroboration for Newspoll’s finding that Anthony Albanese has taken the lead over Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister, in this case at 39-36, which compares with a 44-28 lead to Morrison when Essential last asked the question in early November. We are told that Scott Morrison is up nine on disapproval to 52% and that Anthony Albanese is up four on approval to 43% – their respective approval and disapproval ratings will have to wait for the full Essential report, which will presumably be with us later today or tomorrow. UPDATE: Morrison is down five on approval to 40%, Albanese is up two on disapproval to 30%. Full report here.
Despite everything, the poll finds 32% approving of Morrison’s handling of the bushfire crisis, which may be related to the fact that his approval rating was down only three among Coalition voters. The Guardian tells us only that 36% strongly disapproved of Morrison’s performance, to which the less strong measure of disapproval will need to be added to produce an equivalent figure for the 32% approval. Fifty-two per cent disagreed that Australia had always had bushfires like those just experienced, and 78% believe the government had been unprepared for them. Efforts to shift blame to the states do not appear to have borne fruit: Gladys Berejiklian’s handling of the bushfires scored 55% approval among New South Wales respondents, while Daniel Andrews was on 58% (these numbers would have come from small sub-samples of around 300 to 400 respondents).
The poll also offers a timely addition to the pollster’s leaders attributes series. The findings for the various attributes in this serious invariably move en bloc with the leaders’ general standing, and Morrison is accordingly down across the board. However, a clear standout is his collapse from 51% to 32% for “good in a crisis”, on which he was up 10% the last time the question was posed in October. Other unfavourable movements related in The Guardian range from a six-point increase in “out of touch with ordinary Australians“ to 62% to a 12 point drop on “visionary” to 30%.
More on all this when the full report is published. The poll was conducted online from Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1081.
Under the Howard government, every grant made was identified by electorate and public service briefing to the Minister had to provide electorate level details of the location and recipients. At every opening ceremony of something provided by the grant, the local Liberal or National member (or their delegate) had to be present. If it was a Labor electorate, a Liberal or National senator was assigned to attend. The whole thing was very politicised.
More from the Maddow/Parnas interview :
Mike Pence ‘had to know’ what was going on with Ukraine: Lev Parnas
Bill Barr was ‘on the team’ trying to advance Giuliani’s scheme in Ukraine: Lev Parnas
Lev Parnas says Devin Nunes was ‘involved in getting all this stuff on Biden’
zoomster @ #2107 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 2:28 pm
I’m not sure of the logic in pointing out dodginess that Labor has also indulged in. But be my guest….
All I can say re RDN is that I hope he and Bob Brown picks up the phone to Peter Garrett and offers him the leadership.
The issue isn’t that McKenzie was involved in pork barrelling (which tends to be looked down upon but is otherwise generally legal), it’s that this particular example of pork barrelling may have been in breach of the law. If you don’t get this distinction, you’re either an idiot or being wilfully ignorant to suit you’re agenda.
And to suggest that Labor shouldn’t go hard on this issue (you know, the same Labor that’s being constantly criticised for being too limp and weak and unable to go on the attack!), because either McKenzie hasn’t been found guilty in a court of law or because a Labor MP engaged in (and was rightly punished for) the same bad behaviour nearly twenty fucking years ago is so silly it boggles the mind.
Rex
‘I’m not sure of the logic in pointing out dodginess that Labor has also indulged in.’
The questions are about the legality of the process. Unless you can point to an Auditor General saying that Labor allocated money via an illegal process, Labor hasn’t indulged in the same dodginess.
‘All I can say re RDN is that I hope he and Bob Brown picks up the phone to Peter Garrett and offers him the leadership.’
Thanks for the admission that an ex-Labor politician, who explicitly rejected the Greens, is better than the best MP the Greens can offer.
What.
Thunderstorm dumped some rain over the KayJay hacienda.
The ground is damp to a depth of about 25mm.
The prediction is is for more rain over the next couple of days. How far inland had a benefit I guess will be the subject of TV news later.
Asha Leu @ #2114 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 2:41 pm
Do I take that as a statement ?
Laurence TribeVerified account @tribelaw
The @maddow interview of Lev Parnas was staggering. His story hung together well. If true, what he said crushes any remaining Trump defense. It is also damning to VP Pence, AG Barr, Devin Nunes & Rudy Giuliani. And it makes inconceivable a decision not to subpoena Bolton.
zoomster @ #2113 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 2:40 pm
Until there’s proven illegality, it’s just about pork barrelling.
My pleasure.
I wouldn’t touch something that had been dirtied by a *hypocrite*, not even with a ten foot pole. Gross.
I mean, people do understand what pork barrelling is, right? It’s just a pejorative term for splashing money on particular electorates or demographics in the lead-up of the election in order to win votes, with the implication behind the accusation being that the money isn’t being spent in the places it should be. All the parties do it, and generally the only punishments are that they get accused of doing so by opponent, which may or may not lead to voter backlash.
In this case, McKenzie is being accused – by a politically impartial entity – of engaging in illegal behaviour when it comes to this particular example of pork barrelling. Its the breach of the law that’s the problem, not the pork barrelling.
Is this really that difficult to understand?
Asha Leu @ #2152 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 2:39 pm
Any port in a storm for some here, AL. 😐
You can take that as me struggling to wrap my mind around that bizarre non-sequiter.
Seano
@SeanBradbery
Bridget McKenzie’s “…office created its own spreadsheet – colour-coded by party – to analyse the spread of grants based on who held the seats, which seats were marginal for the Coalition and which were being “targeted” by the Coalition.’
Ten spots? Our score further south was zero. The smoke has reduced a tad though.
Zoomster:
The issue is that the Minister to do what she did needed to exercise a power under Section 11 of the Act and she did not do so. The effect may be that what she porported do was not in fact done. Interested parties such as declined applicants might see an opportunity (this would not be wise however). Quite possibly the process will need to be gone through again (mechanically, so as to reach the same awards) to provide the recipients with assurance that they can actually spend the money. This could be embarrassing as:
– it demonstrates incompetence on the part of the Minister, at a time when ministerial incompetence is already prominent;
– it re-ventilates the rorts, (which the public barely tolerates in an election*), but does so outside of an election period
It seems we have a Minister who couldn’t organise a rort in a pork barrel!
* We are forced to toloerate rorts associated with elections, ever since “conservative” John Howard abolished the notion of ministerial responsibility. Since that abolition, no Minister (of either party) can reasonably be expected to avoid rorting, as there is no penalty for it, and potentially a very large penalty for not doing it. It’s just great the way these “conservatives” go around destroying things that have been around for hundreds of years!
Asha Leu @ #2120 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 2:51 pm
You need to remind yourself the auditor raised the question of legality.
It is false to state that the auditor “accused (McKenzie) of engaging in illegal behaviour”.
The wording is important.
Asha Leu @ #2162 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 2:53 pm
It’s the verbal equivalent of a dead bat when you have them bang to rights.
I gave up trying to deal with it. Life’s too short. These people are slipperier than a snake.
Rex:
Yeah, that’s not how political scandals work.
FFS, we’re not talking about the Labor front-bench conducting a citizen’s arrest and locking her up. Just the standard “she has questions to answer” and publicizing the issue as best as possible, as any sane political party does when an opponent finds themselves in hot water.
Or, I guess, Anthony Albanese and Paul Keating could appoint Scott Ludlum as the new federal Labor leader, as you’d presumably have them do if you were their chief strategist.
Asha Leu
Using taxpayer’s money in a partisan way to benefit your party and indirectly benefit yourself by way of standing within the party is in my books a corruption of good governance. Names like pork barreling and the like are euphemisms for crook behavior. Crack down hard on it and they can ditch the bloody ‘Minchin Protocol’ while their at it. Another you beaut scheme used by pollies to get off the hook for acting like a crook.
Heavy thunderstorm here, 25k south of Forster.
Have a visiting wire-haired Jack Russel bitch named Lucy here, visiting. She’s out on the deck watching the light show. Not at all scared. What a gal!
25mm in less than 1/2 an hour.
‘Asha Leu says:
Thursday, January 16, 2020 at 2:39 pm
The issue isn’t that McKenzie was involved in pork barrelling…’
Quite right. The issue is whether she has, in effect, stolen $100 million and used that $100 million to buy an election corruptly.
The AFP should not need a referral here. They should be on the case in direct response to the Audit Report.
The last three Coalition governments have by far and away been the most morally bankrupt in the history of the Federation.
Andrew C Laufer, Esq @lauferlaw
My overall feelings about Parnas thus far is a mixed bag. He destroyed Trump, Pence, Barr, & Rudy. He didn’t want to touch any Bratva issues or personnel like Firtash & he wasn’t completely forthright with his knowledge of Hyde and Nunes.
Dennis @snoopdance
Replying to @lauferlaw
So trump and pence are small fish?
Andrew C Laufer, Esq @lauferlaw
In the grand scheme of transnational organized crime, yes.
But they run the most powerful country in the world.
Do they?
Righto, I’ll rephrase:
“The auditor suggested that McKenzie may have been engaged in illegal behaviour.”
More than enough to justify Labor going hard on the issue, and to differentiate it from your average, garden-variety pork barrelling.
Sure, McKenzie may well have done nothing wrong (legally, at least.) How many other pollies have found themselves in the same situation when a potential scandal hits the news?
Same-same goes both ways.
Rex Douglas @ #2158 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 1:45 pm
Unless you can find some (credible) allegations that ~$100m Labor’s grant allocations were illegal what you have is:
Coalition
– Lots of pork barrelling
– ~$100m of allegedly illegal grant allocations
Labor
– Lots of pork barrelling
Seems the issue is not about pork barrelling, as while frowned upon pork barrelling is not illegal. The issue is whether illegal allocation of grant money occurred.
poroti:
I don’t entirely disagree. Politicians af all stripes get away with way more than they should.
Nonetheless, the point remains – most pork barrelling is acceptable in the eyes of the law (though often not the court of public opinion.) What McKenzie did may well not have been.
And regardless of how things come out in the wash, Labor have an advantage here, and they should be pressing it is hard as they can. If the tables were turned, you know the Coalition would be going in guns ablazing.
I mean, we have all been talking about how Labor needs to be less nice and more ruthless, right?
Boerwar
The Royal Society of Crooks,Shonks,Spivs , Rorters & Maaates prefer to describe it as “A Golden Age” .
a r:
Exactly!
Asha Leu
They sure should and sure would.
Here’s a crazy idea:
Political corruption should be exposed and stamped regardless of what side of politics it’s coming from. If Labor is engaging in similarly bad behaviour, then that should be brought to light along with McKenzie’s, rather than Rex and Peg’s preferred approach of ignoring McKenzie because, hey, “they all do it anyway!”
Where is Wally Di Natale?
Invisible Man?
After being in the Coalition government for so long Julie Bishop should feel right at home with her new pirate crew mates.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/16/julie-bishop-takes-job-with-greensill-the-firm-pushing-controversial-financing-practice
Predictably assorted running dogs pop up to run interference for the Coalition of the Corrupt.
Ben RhodesVerified account @brhodes
Can you imagine how many corrupt grifters there are like Parnas circling around Trump’s foreign policy? On Saudi, UAE, Venezuela, China, Russia?
The crimes & corruption of Trump & his thugs that Parnas just described was not an isolated incident – it’s the only way Trump does business. Imagine the vast amount of Trump’s & his admin’s crimes that we have no idea about.
Asha Leu
says:
Thursday, January 16, 2020 at 3:18 pm
Here’s a crazy idea:
Political corruption should be exposed and stamped regardless of what side of politics it’s coming from. If Labor is engaging in similarly bad behaviour, then that should be brought to light along with McKenzie’s, rather than Rex and Peg’s preferred approach of ignoring McKenzie because, hey, “they all do it anyway!”
______________________
If I can speak for Rex and Pegasus. I believe it is the hypocritical moral exclamations from Labor partisans about the Coalition that bothers them rather than a desire to minimise Coalition dodginess.
Boerwars
He is everywhere. It’s just that it is very hard to spot a Black Wiggle in a carbonized landscape .
It’s nonsense to treat an organisation as an individual. Have some sympathy for the poor despot trying to maintain an agreement with a democratic state. Imagine what they have to go through every few years!
phoenixRED @ #2183 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 3:30 pm
What do you think so much ‘Executive Time’ is devoted to?
Richard Pimpernel, wearing a skivvy of invisibility. You can seek him here, and seek him there, but you centrists wont find Richard anywhere. Is he in heaven? Or is he in hell? That damned elusive Richard Pimpernel!
phoenixRED @ #2172 Thursday, January 16th, 2020 – 3:07 pm
And all so Mike Pence can deliver Evangelical votes to Trump and get back control of Women’s bodies, and so Trump can run his business out of the White House.
Nath:
Well, the alleged hypocrisy of some partisans on this little political blog doesn’t really have a whole lot to do with whether or not McKenzie did something wrong back in the real word.
I don’t disagree that there’s a a fair few amount of individuals here (both Labor and non-Labor supporters) who will happily excuse anything their side does but castigate the enemy for any missteps. But that’s, well, pretty irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.
Rex has literally been saying that it’s improper for the federal Labor opposition (a wholly seperate entity from the Labor partisans on Poll Bludger) to attack McKenzie unless she’s found guilty in a court of law. I don’t know what that has to do with whether or not there are hypocrites on Poll Bludger.
I can imagine the AFP statement now:
“Well, we were going to investigate, but then it was brought to our attention that a number of Poll Bludger users have excused bad behaviour from Labor MPs, so all the charges have been dropped!”
Asha,
Its funny, when I read about McKenzie the phrase “Sports Rorts” came to mind..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sports_rorts_affair
“Where is Wally Di Natale?
Invisible Man?”
***
https://twitter.com/RichardDiNatale/status/1217647608715333632
Not exactly hard to find…
“If I can speak for Rex and Pegasus. I believe it is the hypocritical moral exclamations from Labor partisans about the Coalition that bothers them rather than a desire to minimise Coalition dodginess.”
Thanks Nath. Because Rex and Peg have such difficulty speaking for themselves. 😛
It’s the ‘holier-than-thou’ sanctimony from Greens partisans that I find tedious. The Greens are a political party, just like all the others. Don’t pretend you’re above the fray.
And the put up Barr. Make that asshole perjure himself.
Kakuru
says:
Thanks Nath. Because Rex and Peg have such difficulty speaking for themselves.
It’s the ‘holier-than-thou’ sanctimony from Greens partisans that I find tedious. The Greens are a political party, just like all the others. Don’t pretend you’re above the fray.
________________________
Slightly above the fray?
It’s not just sport that gets the pork…
This government loves gifting Tax Payers funds to religious organisations.
Notice a pattern of Religious body gets work that governments used to provide in order to defund the government equivalent.
Think Religious hospitals and health care, job provision, welfare, schooling.
Follow the dollars…
McKenzie should resign, and if she won’t resign Morrison should remove her from the ministry. It’s one thing to override recommendations using ministerial discretion, but quite another to do so in way that completely bypasses all measures put in place to ensure probity and transparency of the allocation of taxpayer funds.