The first Newspoll for the year, and the third under the new YouGov online polling regime, finds Labor opening up a 51-49 lead, after they trailed 52-48 in the poll in early December. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down two to 40%, Labor up three to 36%, the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation down one to 4%. Perhaps more remarkably, Scott Morrison now trails Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister by 43-39, after leading him 48-34 in the previous poll. The damage on Morrison’s personal ratings amounts to an eight point drop on approval to 37% and an eleven point rise on disapproval to 59%. Conversely, Albanese is up six on approval to 46% and down four on disapproval to 37%. The Australian’s report is here; the poll was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1505.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The Guardian has numbers from the first Essential Research poll of the year, but they disappointingly offer nothing on voting intention. What they do provide is corroboration for Newspoll’s finding that Anthony Albanese has taken the lead over Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister, in this case at 39-36, which compares with a 44-28 lead to Morrison when Essential last asked the question in early November. We are told that Scott Morrison is up nine on disapproval to 52% and that Anthony Albanese is up four on approval to 43% – their respective approval and disapproval ratings will have to wait for the full Essential report, which will presumably be with us later today or tomorrow. UPDATE: Morrison is down five on approval to 40%, Albanese is up two on disapproval to 30%. Full report here.
Despite everything, the poll finds 32% approving of Morrison’s handling of the bushfire crisis, which may be related to the fact that his approval rating was down only three among Coalition voters. The Guardian tells us only that 36% strongly disapproved of Morrison’s performance, to which the less strong measure of disapproval will need to be added to produce an equivalent figure for the 32% approval. Fifty-two per cent disagreed that Australia had always had bushfires like those just experienced, and 78% believe the government had been unprepared for them. Efforts to shift blame to the states do not appear to have borne fruit: Gladys Berejiklian’s handling of the bushfires scored 55% approval among New South Wales respondents, while Daniel Andrews was on 58% (these numbers would have come from small sub-samples of around 300 to 400 respondents).
The poll also offers a timely addition to the pollster’s leaders attributes series. The findings for the various attributes in this serious invariably move en bloc with the leaders’ general standing, and Morrison is accordingly down across the board. However, a clear standout is his collapse from 51% to 32% for “good in a crisis”, on which he was up 10% the last time the question was posed in October. Other unfavourable movements related in The Guardian range from a six-point increase in “out of touch with ordinary Australians“ to 62% to a 12 point drop on “visionary” to 30%.
More on all this when the full report is published. The poll was conducted online from Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1081.
Bernie wants to close the inequality gap.
Kill Bernie !
I reckon this approaching storm is going to cause havoc in Melbournes rush hours.
Simon Katich says: Wednesday, January 15, 2020 at 3:50 pm
——
The oppo file on Bernie is brutal
——
And the one on Trump in 2016?
***************************************************
Yeah but Bernie does not have Russian bots and Cambridge Analyticas latest derivative on his side to ‘cook the books’ that Trump had in the crucial swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin ……
steve davis @ #1681 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 2:49 pm
That’s a side effect of not bringing those issues front-and-center during the campaign. It’s not entirely the public’s fault for not focusing on issues that weren’t robustly raised.
The announcement by Morrison to grant more people access to a range of relief payments means jack shit on the ground.
He may have reduced the criteria allowing people to apply but the gatekeeper ( Centrelink) remains in place. Therefore more people applying simply means more people fucked over by Centrelink.
It would be interesting to know the ratio of Centrelink permanent staff to contract staff out and about talking to affected people and providing information.
The burecratic ballsup will continue as long as poorly trained and or poorly informed Centrelink staff are the first point of contact.
——Look, my mum has been coming here to see the cousins and holiday on the Central Coast since the 1950s…when it was just a great fishing spot. We are definitely not arriviste nouveau riche——
I know that. That’s not what I meant. You have the best views and the nicest beaches and stunning Bush land and you just rubbed my nose in it.
doyley @ #1706 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 4:01 pm
Shorten and Albo mentioned the missing Minister and his obsession for digitalisation and encouraging Centrelink clients to use Twitter and other social media. I doubt that is going to work for people that have had their homes burned to the ground and won’t be able to provide supporting documentation. This is the area that negativity towards the Government turns in to raging anger.
sd,
Warning out now…
Ah, much better weather for playing tennis in. 🙂
Diogenes @ #1677 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 3:29 pm
He just verifies that News Limited is not just made up of Climate Change deniers.
Rex
“Bernie wants to close the inequality gap.
Kill Bernie !”
That’s what’s called a ‘non sequitur’.
Biden has risks too. I agree, not as high risk as Sanders IMO.
But we are guessing to some extent. The US voters are, like the country, exceptional. And you add voluntary voting in an Electoral College system to that. Yes, Sanders is a radical choice for the DEms. My point is Trump was a radical choice. And you could argue the previous president was a radical choice too.
We’re not greedy where I live. Just one out of three – the heavy rainfall – would be nice.
Yet more evidence that the retail sector’s in more than a spot of bother:
https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/kpmg-appointed-as-voluntary-administrators-as-jeanswest-collapses/news-story/d74736ec150448bc1a03dc19160cf758
Simon Katich says: Wednesday, January 15, 2020 at 4:18 pm
Biden has risks too. I agree, not as high risk as Sanders IMO.
***************************************************
I think ??? that the GOP fears Joe Biden the most – hence all this Ukraine stuff to get dirt on him/his son – that possibly might blow up in Trumps/GOP face if todays events seem to be indicating ….
ANOTHER opinion – Here are 3 winners and 4 losers from the Democratic debate – swap Biden loser for Sanders win
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/01/here-are-3-winners-and-4-losers-from-the-democratic-debate-2/
Morrison backs coal despite BlackRock signalling retreat from fossil fuels
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-backs-coal-despite-blackrock-signalling-retreat-from-fossil-fuels-20200115-p53rqe.html
Simon Katich @ #1706 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 4:03 pm
It’s the luck of the Irish, SK. You should have seen this place when we moved in from WA. The guy here before us was an alcoholic and he just used to throw his empty bottles out the kitchen window. It was a horrorshow. One of my kids sliced their foot open on one of the shards. So I spent the next year (!) combing through the dirt to pick it all out. Nevertheless, the resident Bush Turkey could always scratch up some more. There was no grass, just weeds and no garden. 25 years later it looks a whole lot better after the back-breaking work of establishing a lawn and a garden.
Also, when it rained in winter the freezing water pooled under the stumps of the house, as being at the almost bottom of the hill it had nowhere else to go as we live on the flattened bit of ground that had been cleared to build the house.
Not to mention summer, which just burned us up and melted us like butter until PB generously organised the air con for us and Kevin Rudd supplied us with free roof insulation.
Not that I’m complaining because I saw the potential when other people used to turn their noses up at the place.
But, yeah, it’s not a bad track and until such time as it’s sold, which won’t be long now I reckon, Ima gonna enjoy every moment of living here. 🙂
Blog watch 15/1/2020
RODNEY TIFFEN. The Murdoch Press and the Bushfires
The disastrous summer of bushfires has not been easy for Scott Morrison, but the News Corp newspapers have also had trouble rising to the challenge.
JOHN KERIN: Reform and the ALP
Australia’s oldest political Party, the ALP, is becoming ossified in its structure and totally resistant to reform. It also has many other challenges in representing today’s Australia as a progressive party.
CAVAN HOGUE. More blessed to give than to receive? Repost from 18.12 2017
Provoking China to score cheap political points domestically does not advance Australian interests. While most Australians would prefer the US domestic political model to the Chinese, we are not going to change the Chinese system and so must learn to live with it. Complaints about Chinese attempts to influence Australian attitudes are naive.
NOEL TURNBULL. The Morrison Government tries to get empathetic
The Morrison Government’s is trying a new ploy – one which is beyond even the wildest satirical imagination. It has hired an empathy consultant.
JAMES LAURENCESON.- China Trade Questions confound Australia’s Indo-Pacific shift.(EAF 5.1.2020)
The ‘Indo-Pacific’, stretching from the eastern Indian Ocean to the Pacific, is the Australian government’s framing of the international environment for its foreign policy.
GILES PARKINSON.-Coal! Coal! Coal! for Australia, as bushfires and denial greet Olympic year(Reneweconomy 13.1.2020)
So much for the great Australian summer holidays. The apocalyptic vision and impacts of the brutal bushfires that have devastated large swathes of the country, and covered much of the rest in choking smoke, is accompanied by an unwanted record.
MINXIN PEI. Bush’s disastrous Iraq war paved the way for China’s rise. Is Trump about to make the same mistake?(SCMP and Project Syndicate 10.1.2020)
China joined the WTO and grew into an economic giant in the time the US was fixated on fighting al-Qaeda. It’s a lesson Trump appears not to have learned
GREG LATEMORE. Morrison’s Leadership – Some inconvenient truths about authenticity.
Scott Morrison has recently confronted important truths about leadership – your credibility as a leader has to be earned and it is very easy to lose it. Just being confirmed in the position as a leader does not necessarily make that person a leader.
J.A. DICK. War wisdom
Is it just and moral to assassinate an Iranian General?
https://johnmenadue.com/
New podcast – Lawrence Auster’s book & the bushfires
I’ve recorded some more podcasts with Mark Moncrieff of Upon Hope and David Hiscox of XYZ. The first begins with a brief discussion of Lawrence Auster’s book Our Borders, Ourselves and then a longer conversation about the bushfires here in Australia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LSR4R5iEWXo
Biodiversity loss is a flaming tragedy
There are so many details about these unprecedented bushfires that I have no idea how to process. But nothing — including the ever-present shroud of acrid smoke that has blanketed my city since November — has brought home the scale of this tragedy quite like the estimation that one billion native animals have been killed.
Bushfire divisions etched in sand
As the sea withdrew, the waves left curling black lines that crossed one another. The beach became a map in which territories were separated from one another. That image reflected the fires and the ways in which they were perceived. They were more than localised events. They affected relationships that spread far beyond the fire.
https://www.eurekastreet.com.au/
Boris Johnson’s letter to Scotland’s Nicola Sturgeon – good on him for holding her to account!
Ever eaten shark fin soup?
Twitter deletes video of Prince Harry begging Disney chief to give Meghan a job
In the video, Prince Harry can be heard saying to the studio boss “You do know she does voiceovers?” pressing the point that Meghan is “really interested” in working for Disney.
Michael Smith really is a nasty piece of goods.
There is a lot more but nothing particularly interesting.
https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/
Since when were drag queens for kids?
But a worrying trend in our political discourse is that leftist outrage is fostered by the national media whilst conservative outrage is dismissed.
The wrong kind of diversity
If you have been watching TV lately, you will have noticed that many advertisements include at least one black or brown person.
https://www.onlineopinion.com.au/
Global Patsy: Since 1990 — Each Australian have already cut CO2 emissions by 40%
It doesn’t matter what any nation does. The CO2 blame-game is a fashion contest and success is not measured in megatons, but with megaphones.
http://joannenova.com.au/
Greenies surfing over bushfire facts
Wildfire is natural, cyclical and regenerative. Australian flora has adapted to survive bushfire and some indigenous species thrive on it. However, the ferocity of recent fires that scorched the country is shocking. The recovery will be painfully slow for those directly affected. Communities will be rebuilt or left behind as people seek safer ground. As city folk return to work, they will forget. But for people in disaster zones, the fires will stalk them by day and haunt them by night until they burn out or the rain comes.
I Cheered When the Bushfire Came
In researching my bushfire book White Overall Days, I found that our local brigade averaged some 15 burnoffs per year in the decade of the 1970s; nine in the ’80s, a mere two or three in the ’90s and similar numbers ever since.
The reason for this dramatic fall-off in burnoffs was the complex web of rules and procedures dumped on the local captains to comply with before they could do anything. They simply gave up. It was all too hard.
Bushfires: Exhausted fireys welcome ‘hotshot cavalry’
An elite team of American forest firefighters has joined the battle in Victoria’s alpine region, venturing into the wilderness of Mount Buffalo to fight the mega-blaze.
Clock ticking on TikTok fears
CYBER safety experts are warning parents to beware of the popular app TikTok, as teenagers twist its songs and videos to bully others, and paedophiles prowl it for “sexy” videos posted by young users.
http://australian-politics.blogspot.com/
Will Hodgman Resignation And Recount
It was one of the biggest days in Tasmanian politics yesterday with Premier Will Hodgman announcing his impending resignation from the role and from parliament after nearly six years in the top job. So far as publicly available evidence suggests, Hodgman leaves office under no political pressure and facing no known personal scandals. He also says he has no next move lined up, and while he has alluded to the pressures of political life on his family he hasn’t explicitly given family life as a core reason for quitting, so his resignation is something of a mystery for the moment. It’s not a huge surprise though, as there had been speculation he would stand down mid-term since he was re-elected in 2018. These days, Premiers don’t always hold the office until they are driven out, reach retirement age or are carried away in a box, and Hodgman joins Labor icons Peter Beattie (Qld) and Steve Bracks (Vic) as rare recent examples of Premiers who quit while still popular and seemingly able to carry on for much longer.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/
I think Civil Rights lawyer Andrew Laufer is sarcastically enjoying this news :
Hey, so this happened today, too. I wonder if this will have a negative impact on Mr. Avenatti’s presidential campaign.
kate briqueletVerified account @kbriquelet
Michael Avenatti was arrested today… in the middle of a California Bar hearing to suspend his license because he stole millions from a client.
Jason McGahan @JasonMcGahan
Just moments ago ex-Stormy Daniels attorney Michael Avenatti was taken out of the California State Bar Court in LA the custody of federal agents.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/michael-avenatti-arrested-by-feds-at-california-state-bar-hearing?source=twitter&via=desktop
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/radar/vic/melbourne/64km
Looks colourful.
Andrew C Laufer, Esq @lauferlaw
Is Steyer’s standing as a billionaire his only qualification to be POTUS? Bloomberg was at least a 3 term mayor of the greatest city in the world and I still don’t believe he’s qualified.
judyark @judyark
Replying to @lauferlaw
He is a successful business man, unlike tRump.
Andrew C Laufer, Esq @lauferlaw ·
Yes, but you can’t run the Fed like a business. It isn’t one.
steve davis @ #1722 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 4:48 pm
Sunbury getting a good soaking atm.
What is an empathy consultant?
Someone who purports to be empathetic towards other human beings and yet teaches politicians who are not how to pretend to be, and provides the stock facial and body movements, expressions and words in order to exude a false empathy?
Unbelievable.
Fulvio Sammut @ #1725 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 4:57 pm
“The secret of success is sincerity. Once you can fake that you’ve got it made.”
— (attributed to) Jean Giraudoux.
I searched Google to see if “empathy consultant” is a thing. A number of sources, some credible, said the Government spent $190,000 on one for the PM.
Lesson 1: if you can fake sincerity, you’ve got it made.
Does an ‘Empathy consultant’ teach psychopaths to act like they care?
Simon Katich:
It’s not the case in general that native animals are resistant to 1080 poison. Some species and sub-species that are native to parts of south-west Western Australia have some resistance, but most of our native wildlife does not. They use it in New Zealand to kill brushtail possums!
(It’s also not naturally present at all – instead a related but distinct substance is present in some native plants).
Morrison has empathy. He knows how you feel, He just doesn’t care and sure as heck won’t let it get in the way of getting what he wants.
“ Biden has risks too. I agree, not as high risk as Sanders IMO.”
Sleepy Joe was a terrible candidate in 1988 and again in 2008. He’s as high risk as Sanders without any of Sander’s authenticity on the campaign stump. At least with theBern you could get something In return for taking a risk. With sleepy Joe all you could possibly get is Blancmange.
Move over boomers.
First drops today of the much anticpated rain has arrived at Greensborough. Looks like we are going to get a drench.
I find this deliberate torment of a family incredible, despicable, add your own adjective…
“ Replying to @lauferlaw
He is a successful business man, unlike tRump.
Andrew C Laufer, Esq @lauferlaw ·
Yes, but you can’t run the Fed like a business. It isn’t one.”
And yet, Bloomberg ran a city like it should – as a government (and a rather large one at that). So, he clearly has multiple administration skills.
Don’t get me wrong: Bloomberg is yet another terrible horrible poor option As a democrat candidate. Just saying that he’d actually do OK as president if elected. Better than Trump, Bush, Bush, Reagan and probably Bill.
Fulvio Sammut @ #1725 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 4:57 pm
Empathy is actually an attitude of care and understanding of someone elses situation. I doubt it can be taught. You either have it or you don’t. A bit like sex appeal.
GG
Yes, empathy requires understanding, often rising from the same experience. I agree. You can’t teach it, but I suppose if you’re a really good actor you could fake it for political purposes.
We are getting an almighty drenching. It is bucketing down.
Edit.
Morrison can’t. He doesn’t care enough even to try.
Andrew_Earlwood:
It’s little surprise that Biden seems to be the preferred candidate here, on a blog populated with comments from yesterday’s men (who are by no means exclusively male).
Biden represents more of the same; just like Clinton in 2016, and that went down so well…
That being said, I’m not sure that any of the current Democratic hopefuls can beat Trump in 2020. It should be a shoe-in regardless of who the nominee is, but I really do think America is that stupid. They gave Dubya a second term, after all.
Is this another sign of the ‘strong economy’ that Scomo and Josh keep boasting about?
National retail chain Jeanswest has collapsed, risking the jobs of 988 employees at its 146 stores across Australia.
lizzie @ #1725 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 5:28 pm
People see through it. But, at the end of the day, people vote for their perceived own self interest. Look at Trump and all his personal failings. He still gets his supporters supporting him because they prioritise different things than the outraged twitterati, Press and hand wringing traditionalists.
Ch 10 news opened with a subtle hatchet piece on Morrison over what he says against what he does.
And CNN has a story with a catchy title but is actually criticism of Morrison and the LNP over climate change.
GG
I’m just glad I don’t live in USA. 🙂
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/incredible-secret-firefighting-mission-saves-famous-dinosaur-trees-20200115-p53rom.html
lizzie @ #1733 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 5:40 pm
Good on them. Kean seems to have a clue about the important issues in his portfolio.
Lachlan Williams is a writer and communications consultant based in Melbourne. He has worked for the union movement and advised a Labor MP:
Australia Has A Bullshit Problem
https://junkee.com/bushfires-australia-problem/238201
Hi caf,
I seem to remember giving some qualifications about 1080. Many native animals have a tolerance at certain levels due to the presence of a part of or related chemical in their natural diet in certain areas. For example – Possums/quolls in some areas are tolerant, in other areas not.
See if this works
https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/pages/87ef6ac7-da62-4a45-90ec-0d473863f3e6/files/nomination-1080-poison-baiting.doc
Joe Biden is not a great candidate. I saw him in person during his 2008 campaign. He was underwhelming back then, and he he’s barely changed in the last 12 years. But from a purely pragmatic standpoint, there are those of us who think Biden has the best shot in 2020. It doesn’t give me great joy to say this – it’s purely a box-ticking exercise.
Although many people adore Bernie, because they think he’s the antidote to America’s problems, his politics are too far to the left. The majority of American voters will not stomach a candidate they see as socialist (even if he isn’t actually a socialist). Bernie wouldn’t have won in 2016, and he has no chance in 2020.
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people vote for their perceived own self interest. Look at Trump and all his personal failings. He still gets his supporters supporting him because they prioritise different things than the outraged twitterati
———
What exactly is the perceived self interest of Trumps base? Is it economic… something Sanders and Warren’s platform can preach to? Or is it something more cultural – something they have been taught to believe is core to values and beliefs… like abortion, guns and possibly bigotry?
It is likely both.
Lara and Geelong has been completely smashed according to reports. Significant hail damage. A friend of mine in insurance has been inundated with calls for help this afternoon and they have been warned to expect more.
As if the fire damage claims were terrible enough… we now have flood and storm damage.
It is like being in Brisbane at the moment in Melbourne.
100% humidity, low temperatures and 15 mm in 20 mins at Moorabbin Airport.
Melbourne. Cold one minute. Tropical the next.