The first Newspoll for the year, and the third under the new YouGov online polling regime, finds Labor opening up a 51-49 lead, after they trailed 52-48 in the poll in early December. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down two to 40%, Labor up three to 36%, the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation down one to 4%. Perhaps more remarkably, Scott Morrison now trails Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister by 43-39, after leading him 48-34 in the previous poll. The damage on Morrison’s personal ratings amounts to an eight point drop on approval to 37% and an eleven point rise on disapproval to 59%. Conversely, Albanese is up six on approval to 46% and down four on disapproval to 37%. The Australian’s report is here; the poll was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1505.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The Guardian has numbers from the first Essential Research poll of the year, but they disappointingly offer nothing on voting intention. What they do provide is corroboration for Newspoll’s finding that Anthony Albanese has taken the lead over Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister, in this case at 39-36, which compares with a 44-28 lead to Morrison when Essential last asked the question in early November. We are told that Scott Morrison is up nine on disapproval to 52% and that Anthony Albanese is up four on approval to 43% – their respective approval and disapproval ratings will have to wait for the full Essential report, which will presumably be with us later today or tomorrow. UPDATE: Morrison is down five on approval to 40%, Albanese is up two on disapproval to 30%. Full report here.
Despite everything, the poll finds 32% approving of Morrison’s handling of the bushfire crisis, which may be related to the fact that his approval rating was down only three among Coalition voters. The Guardian tells us only that 36% strongly disapproved of Morrison’s performance, to which the less strong measure of disapproval will need to be added to produce an equivalent figure for the 32% approval. Fifty-two per cent disagreed that Australia had always had bushfires like those just experienced, and 78% believe the government had been unprepared for them. Efforts to shift blame to the states do not appear to have borne fruit: Gladys Berejiklian’s handling of the bushfires scored 55% approval among New South Wales respondents, while Daniel Andrews was on 58% (these numbers would have come from small sub-samples of around 300 to 400 respondents).
The poll also offers a timely addition to the pollster’s leaders attributes series. The findings for the various attributes in this serious invariably move en bloc with the leaders’ general standing, and Morrison is accordingly down across the board. However, a clear standout is his collapse from 51% to 32% for “good in a crisis”, on which he was up 10% the last time the question was posed in October. Other unfavourable movements related in The Guardian range from a six-point increase in “out of touch with ordinary Australians“ to 62% to a 12 point drop on “visionary” to 30%.
More on all this when the full report is published. The poll was conducted online from Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1081.
Player One
Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 10:18 am
Comment #1476
Thinking of you and many others in similar or worse situations.
and
“I cried because I had no shoes until I met a man who had no feet.”
One still has no shoes. But may still be able to assist others.
What does this mean? Effed if I know. I take no responsibility for my daydreams. Should I fix fault on a political party ❓
Best wishes.
Seeing the air quality forecast for Melbourne, the Australian Open organisers are lucky there are no laws governing workplace health and safety, or environmental quality, in Victoria, or seemingly any State government department that enforces them. Otherwise they would be obliged to halt play.
Re. The AO:
Tennis Australia should have contingency plans afoot if the smoke haze doesn’t lift, like moving the AO to a city free of smoke like Perth. The logistics would be a problem, and ticket holders would be inconvenienced, but players should not be forced to play in such conditions.
Keep digging- you’ve got another two and half years or about 900 days of saying the same things over and over and over. It’s worked so well so far. I suspect Mr Bowe is running this as a sociological experiment in collective insanity.
Australian Labour has just lost again.
UK Labour has just lost again.
US Democrats lost to Trump and look like doing so again.
But you all stick to your knitting – carry on.
It’s a Dream @ 10:39.
‘The government is refusing to release documents relating to its trouble-plagued $200m regional grants program, claiming release would not inform debate on a “matter of public importance”’
I think that they’re worried that it will inform in, in a way not good for them.
Mavis
We are in agreement on what should happen at the AO. The poin to fmy post was that there are laws governing workplace health and safety in every state, even Victoria. They do not seem to be being enforced at present at the Rod Laver Arena. Why is Worksafe Victoria doing nothing if tennis authorities fail in their duty of care?
Socrates says:
Wednesday, January 15, 2020 at 10:48 am
Mavis
We are in agreement on what should happen at the AO. The poin to fmy post was that there are laws governing workplace health and safety in every state, even Victoria. They do not seem to be being enforced at present at the Rod Laver Arena. Why is Worksafe Victoria doing nothing if tennis authorities fail in their duty of care?
_________________
Probably because tennis players can walk away any time they like.
Buc
That seems a very random comment – what sparked it?
Maybe it is but it also may well be true. I watched the early part of Trump’s campaign and one thing really struck me at the time. It was how much crossover of the issues he was then banging on about had with what Sanders’ had banged on about. The rip off pharmaceutical industry, medical cost,student loans, corporations making the rules and screwing the workers etc. they would appeal to the same people. He offered change from business as usual , business as usual had not been working for most.
Nath
“Probably because tennis players can walk away any time they like.”
I doubt that would be the case in terms of various obligations to the ATP and sponsors. Also I doubt that would get the organisers off the hook. An independent contractor can walk off any building site I may run as an engineer if they do not think it safe. Yet I am still busted if it is not meeting various codes.
Tennis is a professional sport so the same laws would apply, unless anyone can show me where Tennis Australia was exempted? Given that player’s unions in other sports (e.g. Cricket, football) have already cited player safety in other cases of abandoned play, I doubt that very much. Normally when a commercial entity fails to comply with an Act the regulator is supposed to step in and stop them. So the (Victorian State) regulator is not doing their job.
If this attitude keeps up next thing you know there will be walls blown over and innocent pedestrians killed in the heart of Melbourne and nothing effective will be done to stop it.
Confessions says: Wednesday, January 15, 2020 at 10:15 am
Natasha BertrandVerified account@NatashaBertrand
31m31 minutes ago
Um holy sh*t. This certainly makes it sound like Parnas and co. were actively tracking Yovanovitch’s movements. This could explain why Yovanovitch was moved out of Ukraine so quickly. https://intelligence.house.gov/uploadedfiles/20200114_-_hpsci_transmittal_letter_to_hjc_-_new_evidence_attachment.pdf …
Text messages and handwritten notes. Are these people stupid?
*********************************************************************
Andrew C Laufer, Esq @lauferlaw
Andrew C Laufer, Esq Retweeted Natasha Bertrand
Sounds like members of the Trump administration and their mob friends were contemplating “wacking” a US ambassador.
phoenixRED @ #1511 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 11:07 am
And why the FBI arrested those guys before they could fly out of the USA to…?
poroti @ #1509 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 10:58 am
Well, they ARE both closely linked to the Russians.
Tad Devine, Sanders’ campaign manager in 2016, very close friend and business partner of Russian agent, Konstantin Kilimnik.
Socrates @ #1506 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 10:48 am
If you take the circuses away from the proletariat they might revolt. 😐
C@tmomma
Is that you Joseph McCarthy?
Bucephalus @ #1504 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 10:44 am
mundo has shape-shifted back to it’s true form.
Parnas documents prove ‘this was a shakedown by the president’: Ex-prosecutor
On MSNBC Tuesday, former federal prosecutor John Flannery said that the new trove of documents released to the House Intelligence Committee by Rudy Giuliani business associate Lev Parnas remove any uncertainty that President Donald Trump was involved in the Ukraine extortion scheme.
“If there was any room for doubt that this was a shakedown by the president, and that he was involved and Rudy was involved, and Rudy’s people were involved … these additional documents put that all to rest,” said Flannery,
“One of the most significant things about this letter that you were reading is that it starts with, I am private counsel to President Donald Trump. It even suggests that this is out of channels.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/01/parnas-documents-prove-this-was-a-shakedown-by-the-president-ex-prosecutor/
poroti @ #1515 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 11:18 am
WTH, poroti!?! Can’t you handle the truth!?! 😆
Anyone who thinks the Russians haven’t war-gamed getting candidates up from both parties has rocks in their heads. No offence, poroti. 🙂
P1, ‘Gosh, who got out of the wrong side of bed this morning?’
That would be me.
I am angry at those who spend their energy keeping the only party that has reduced emissions out of power. I get angry because it is as clear as day, our only hope of change is for a Labor government. It may not be the best government, but at least there is a possibility of change.
Hopefully, the effects people are experiencing for the current government’s inaction may see that promoting the LNP means more of the same.
‘Player One says:
Wednesday, January 15, 2020 at 10:18 am
lizzie @ #1450 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 9:29 am
Player One
I understand that you’re going through a very tough time and I’m sorry to hear it.
Thanks, lizzie.
You know what makes us feel worst? Paradoxically, it is that we look around us and see that there are thousands of people much worse off than we are. We suffered no injuries, had none of our major buildings destroyed, and still enjoy a buffer of green and pleasant surroundings. Our wildlife also seems largely unaffected. Even our air quality is better than most of the rest of the state. As the catastrophe worsened around us, we slowly realized how lucky we were, and we now feel a bit guilty when we have to complain about anything, or try and claim disaster relief. Our disaster has been mostly just financial and is likely to be temporary, whereas others have suffered permanent damage – losing lives, homes and livelihoods.
It actually embarrassed us yesterday when the insurance assessor finally came. When we lodged the claim six weeks ago, it felt like we had suffered a significant loss. Now, I feel like apologizing to them for wasting their time ‘
Hey, don’t beat yourself up, P1! I have always admired both physical and moral courage. You are showing scads of both. Objectively, you have done well.
This is not an attempt at amateur psychology (the wise doctor starts at home) but you might want to consider:
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/325578.php
The physical threat to former Ambassador Yovanovitch’s safety was coming from Rudy Giuliani and his associates at Trump’s direction.
According to a House letter sent to the Senate with accompanying evidence, the Ukraine plotters had the former Ambassador to Ukraine under surveillance:
In March 2019, Mr. Parnas communicated by text message with Robert F. Hyde about former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch. In response to some articles, tweets, and videos accusing the Ambassador of being disloyal to President Trump, Mr. Hyde wrote “Wow. Can’t believe Trumo [sic] hasn’t fired this bitch. I’ll get right in that.” Mr. Hyde then sent a series of text messages suggesting that he had Ambassador Yovanovitch under physical surveillance in Kyiv and that “They are willing to help if we/you would like a price.”
Giuliani and his associates were actively tracking the Ukraine ambassador’s movements at the request of Donald Trump. Giuliani and the rest of his crew were not freelancing in Ukraine. They were working for Donald Trump. The tracking (stalking) of a US ambassador was being done as part of Trump’s plot to get dirt on Joe Biden.
The Ukraine plot is more disturbing and dark that earlier imagined.
A president had his own ambassador tracked.
https://www.politicususa.com/2020/01/14/the-threat-to-yovanovitchs-safety-was-coming-from-trump.html
Socrates:
[‘ Why is Worksafe Victoria doing nothing if tennis authorities fail in their duty of care?’]
I’m not sure if workplace health and safety laws apply to professional tennis players. I mean, they’re not employed by Tennis Australia. Perhaps someone could advise thereof? They could have a common law claim for personal injuries if forced to play in such conditions. At the moment, qualifying rounds are being played and they could certainly be changed to another venue. The AO proper starts on Monday.
I think Tennis Australia will wait until the weekend to see if the smoke has cleared. If it’s still as bad as it now and the venue is not changed, I’d anticipate the players’ professional bodies to step in, failing that, the players may take unilateral action. And it could be argued that with so many having been affected by the bush fires (and still are), maybe the appropriate course would be to cancel the tournament.
Most of the lower and middle-ranked players are totally vulnerable not only to the smoke but to their careers if they play up instead of playing on.
The top ten seeds should do the right thing by their fellow humans: band together and pull the plug.
C@tmomma
[‘If you take the circuses away from the proletariat they might revolt. ‘]
🙂
Boerwar:
[‘The top ten seeds should do the right thing by their fellow humans: band together and pull the plug.’]
I think if any of the top three women and/or men pull out, the others would follow.
Re: The AO
Easy. Conditions are unplayable and Qualifying is cancelled. The Top 8 in the ATP/WTA Rankings announced as the Qualifiers.
The prize money (and there is a lot of prize money even in Qualifying) is shared between all entrants.
Entry for spectators is free to Qualifying- so no problems with refunds.
Now they let Qualifying start, they have created an unnecessary problem for themselves.
This should have been done on Day 1.
Why isn’t Martin Scorsese making a movie about ‘The Don’!?!
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/14/blackrock-says-climate-crisis-will-now-guide-its-investments
BlackRock, the world’s largest fund manager, has announced it will put sustainability at the heart of its investment decisions.
In his annual letter to chief executives, the BlackRock boss, Larry Fink, writes that the climate emergency is altering how investors view the long-term prospects of companies. “Awareness is rapidly changing, and I believe we are on the edge of a fundamental reshaping of finance.”
Fink acknowledges that financial markets have been slower to reflect the threat to economic growth and prosperity posed by the climate crisis than protesters who have taken to the streets, including during the Extinction Rebellion demonstrations.
PeeBee @ #1525 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 11:21 am
Unfortunately, since the Gillard/Milne/Indy govt days of lowered emissions, we’ve seen the consolidation of the LNP/Labor parliamentary ‘friends of coal’ cartel which in effect locks out real action on climate change if the Greens and Independent environmentalists don’t have the senate balance of power.
I wonder how long the Minister for Science will last after this:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-15/cabinet-ministers-karen-andrews-climate-change-time-wasters/11868694
Bucephalus @ #6121 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 10:44 am
Keep sucking your thumb and telling yourself that you’re a winner, just like Rupert an’ Gina an’ Twiggy an’ Fat Clive an’ all of your heros, Puce Phallus.
Mavis
I wonder how long any scientists will last without saying “You didn’t listen to us the last fifty times, will you actually attempt some decarbonisation now?”
Kronomex says:
Wednesday, January 15, 2020 at 7:32 am
“Morning all. Why does the Australian Open get away with putting player health at risk? Surely it has some duty of care? Why do regulators give it so much slack?”
M. O. N. E. Y.
——————————
More like Worksafe is useless.
Tennis Australia would already have booked most of its revenue for the tournament and the ticket sales for the main courts wont be impacted but where Tennis Australia might face a problem is if the smoke lingers because many people will not want to spend hours watching matches in that smoke.
phylactella:
[‘I wonder how long any scientists will last without saying “You didn’t listen to us the last fifty times, will you actually attempt some decarbonisation now?”]
Other than say Plimer, there wouldn’t be too many scientists who still deny climate science, so I think they’re in the clear. I fear for the Minister, though, expecting to see a job being done on her by Murdoch’s rags, outlets such as Sky News.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/im-sick-and-tired-of-that-woman-the-projects-steve-price-unleashes-on-virtue-signalling-jacinda-ardern-as-she-holidays-in-australia-and-compares-her-visit-to-scott-morrisons-trip-to-hawaii/ar-BBYWUIE?ocid=spartanntp
Now that Steve has lost his 2GB handle and no longer has the opportunity to tell everyone about the Mercedes he drives, he will have to shout even louder.
None of this should obscure the outrageous shirt and t-shirt combination worn by Clarke Gayford.
Rex:’Unfortunately, since the Gillard/Milne/Indy govt days of lowered emissions, we’ve seen the consolidation of the LNP/Labor parliamentary ‘friends of coal’ cartel which in effect locks out real action on climate change if the Greens and Independent environmentalists don’t have the senate balance of power.’
Unfortunately, you keep supporting the Libs. Keep it up and we will have nothing done about emissions.
The Science (cough) Minister sounds all aboard the Scrott bullshit bus- “The climate has changed and it continues to change”. Also showing she has been listening to too much from Professor Bolt and the rest of the Murdoch climate scientists with this re fires “devastating and surprising”
Nath
It is a worksafe issue because of the onsite employees and its a health issue for the ball kids, officials and for spectators.
PeeBee @ #1542 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 12:13 pm
There’s absolutely no logic to your comment.
PeeBee @ #1519 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 11:21 am
You do understand that Labor is highly unlikely to win the next election with the same type of inconsistent, incoherent and ambiguous policies – plus a few last-minute “thought bubbles” – that lost them the last election, right?
If you don’t believe this, then you are essentially relying on Labor winning because support for the Coalition collapses. This is possible, but I wouldn’t want to bet my future on it. And, as I have said before, it really annoys me that people like you are willing to do so. This strategy is just too risky.
There was little evidence that Labor had learned much from their last loss, and quite a bit of evidence to the contrary. And now, events have overtaken them anyway. The next election could be as little as 18 months away, and if you think Smirko is not going to take advantage of Labor’s current policy shambles, then you are simply being foolish.
It is looking increasingly likely that the Liberals will develop a more “climate change aware” set of policies specifically intended to fill Labor’s vacuum – and even if they are a complete con, this will very likely sweep the rug right out from under Labor’s feet for some considerable period. Not least of which because the Coalition will probably tell the electorate exactly what they want to hear – i.e. that very little action is really required to address climate change. A comfortable lie will always be preferable to the truth for many people – at least for a while.
Clearly, the best thing that Labor could have done was to simply eliminate the inconsistencies in their previous policy set and persevere with them. If they had done so, they would right now be reaping rewards. But they chose not to do that (I will leave it to you to figure out why) and are now left with nothing except a promise to develop some policies, sometime before the next election.
If you really want Labor to win then the best thing you can do is to insist they sort out their policy shambles as soon as possible – and an important part of that is help them get over their fossil fuel dependence.
Now, go on – call me a Liberal or a Green. It might make you feel better, even if it achieves nothing else.
I just spoke to a colleague at the National Library in Canberra (I’m in Melbourne).
The smoke has been relentless over the last two weeks and lots of people are very sick and depressed. Windows cannot be opened, smoke is permutating everywhere in buildings except those that have excellent seals or airlocks. Every night a thick smog descends on the capital.
The smell is relentless. They have not seen blue sky for a fortnight. People are angry and scared. There is hope that the forecast rains tonight and the next few days will help.
The government is very much on the nose.
“ Maybe it is but it also may well be true. I watched the early part of Trump’s campaign and one thing really struck me at the time. It was how much crossover of the issues he was then banging on about had with what Sanders’ had banged on about. The rip off pharmaceutical industry, medical cost,student loans, corporations making the rules and screwing the workers etc. they would appeal to the same people. He offered change from business as usual , business as usual had not been working for most.”
There is no doubt that Sanders played John the Baptist to Trump’s Messiah peddling very similar easy shibboleths, but an analysis of actual voting returns For the General Election – county by county – demonstrates that “the message” played out differently in the different voter demographics in the rust belt especially:
– Bernie’s ‘it’s rigged’ helped the Republicans suppress the urban uneducated traditional democrat vote; and
– Trump’s ‘it’s rigged (and its the fault of ‘the others’, especially bad hombre Mexicans)’ riff energised the rural-small town white uneducated and hitherto politically disengaged to come out and vote MAGA hugely bigly.
P1
We all know you dont need any policies to win an election.
mavis:
Plimer has a long history of support from mining companies (originally Broken Hill, not coal).
So his ethical value system was rigidly in place from early. He also was active among the Sceptics, but I think that was more about creationism than environment.
My guess is that most scientists and engineers who work for mining/fossil fuel companies also see the short-term financial gain as far more important than long-term planetary well-being.
Value system and employment – this is a chicken & egg problem.
Bucephalus:
[‘Keep digging- you’ve got another two and half years or about 900 days of saying the same things over and over and over. It’s worked so well so far. I suspect Mr Bowe is running this as a sociological experiment in collective insanity.’]
I don’t know about that, with two polls this week recording relatively huge drops in Morrison’s personal markers, one giving Labor a modest 2PP lead. Thing seem to be progressing quite well for Labor.
Player One @ #1539 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 12:25 pm
‘Clearly, the best thing that Labor could have done was to simply eliminate the inconsistencies in their previous policy set and persevere with them’
Exactly, the whole policy reset thing is a mistake and leaves them open to claims from you know who that Labor doesn’t seem to know what it believes in etc….too late now of course.
Shellbell. I don’t know. Clarke Gayford is pretty much in the wear-whatever-you-want class. Certainly, less is more, but I don’t think that was your particular point 😉
C@tmomma @ #1527 Wednesday, January 15th, 2020 – 8:38 am
Scorcese doesn’t do farce.
The simple truth is the bullshit the greens are going on with now ( punching at shadows) is better than giving the Greens and Liberals a policy to punch.
The silence of the Greens reflects the lack of a Labor policy to kick and the Greens inability to actually create policy.
Socrates says:
Wednesday, January 15, 2020 at 11:07 am
…”I doubt that would be the case in terms of various obligations to the ATP and sponsors. Also I doubt that would get the organisers off the hook. An independent contractor can walk off any building site I may run as an engineer if they do not think it safe. Yet I am still busted if it is not meeting various codes.
Tennis is a professional sport so the same laws would apply, unless anyone can show me where Tennis Australia was exempted?”…
………………………….
Work Safe Victoria can’t wander out onto Rod Laver Arena and shut down a tennis tournament and a tennis player can’t put in a compo claim for chronic tennis elbow.
Tennis players like all sports people are privately insured and it would be up to the players singly, or as a collective, together with match officials to decide whether or not to play.