Welcome to the penultimate instalment of the Call of the Board series (there will be one more dealing with the territories), wherein the result of last May’s federal election are reviewed in detail seat by seat. Previous episodes dealt with Sydney (here and here), regional New South Wales, Melbourne, regional Victoria, south-east Queensland, regional Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia.
Today we look at Tasmania, which has long been noted as a law unto itself as far as federal electoral politics are concerned. The Liberals managed clean sweeps of the state amid poor national results in 1983 and 1984, and the state likewise went all-in for Labor at their losing elections in 1998 and 2001. The state’s form more recently, and especially last May, suggest a normalising trend – in this case, Labor’s defeats in the northern seats of Bass and Braddon were emblematic of their poor show in white, low-income regional Australia (and they can probably count themselves likely that Lyons wasn’t added to the list).
Conversely, another easy win for independent Andrew Wilkie in the central Hobart seat of Clark (formerly Denison) confirmed the uniquely green-left nature of that seat, while a predictable win for Labor in Franklin typified the party’s ongoing hold on low-income suburbia. It may be worth noting in all this that the state’s economic fortunes appear to be on an upswing, and that this coincides with one of its rare periods of Liberal control at state level. It’s tempting at this moment to speculate that the state has a big future ahead of it as a haven from climate change, with electoral implications as yet unforeseeable.
In turn:
Bass (LIBERAL GAIN 0.4%; 5.8% swing to Liberal): Bass maintained its extraordinary record with Labor’s defeat, changing hands for the eighth time out of ten elections going back to 1993. The latest victim of the curse of Bass was Ross Hart, who joins Labor colleagues Silvia Smith, Jodie Campbell and Geoff Lyons and Liberals Warwick Smith (two non-consecutive terms), Michael Ferguson and Andrew Nikolic on the roll call of one-term members. The only exception to the rule has been Michelle O’Byrne, who won the seat in 1998 and was re-elected in 2001, before losing out in 2004 and entering state politics in 2006. Labor also retained the seat in 2010, but their member at the time, Jodie Campbell, resigned after a single term.
Braddon (LIBERAL GAIN 3.1%; 4.8% swing to Liberal): Northern Tasmania’s other seat has been a slightly tougher nut for the Liberals since Sid Sidebottom ended 23 years of Liberal control in 1998, having been won for party since on three occasions: with Mark Baker’s win in 2004, as part of the famed forestry policy backlash against Labor under Mark Latham (who may have taken the episode to heart); with the heavy defeat of the Labor government in 2013, when it was won by former state MP Brett Whiteley; and now with Gavin Pearce’s win for the Liberals. Also in this mix was the Super Saturday by-election of July 28, 2018, at which the now-defeated Labor member, Justine Keay, was narrowly returned. Such was the attention focused on the Coalition’s weak result in the Queensland seat of Longman on the same day that few recognised what was a highly inauspicious result for Labor, whose 0.1% swing was notably feeble for an opposition party at a by-election. Much was made at that time of the performance of independent Craig Garland, who polled 10.6% at the by-election before failing to make an impression as a candidate for the Senate. Less was said about the fact that another independent, Craig Brakey, slightly exceeded Garland’s by-election result at the election after being overlooked for Liberal preselection. Both major parties were duly well down on the primary vote as compared with 2016, Liberal by 4.1% and Labor by 7.5%, but a much more conservative mix of minor party contenders translated into a stronger flow of preferences to the Liberals.
Clark (Independent 22.1% versus Labor; 4.4% swing to Independent): Since squeaking over the line at Labor’s expense after Duncan Kerr retired in 2010, independent Andrew Wilkie has been piling on the primary vote with each his three subsequent re-elections, and this time made it just over the line to a majority with 50.0%, up from 44.0% in 2016. This translated into a 4.4% increase in Wilkie’s margin over Labor after preferences. For what it’s worth, Labor picked up a 0.8% swing in two-party terms against the Liberals.
Franklin (Labor 12.2%; 1.5% swing to Labor): The tide has been flowing in Labor’s favour in this seat since Harry Quick seized it from the Liberals in 1993, which was manifested on this occasion by a 1.5% swing to Julie Collins, who succeeded Quick in 2007. This went against a national trend of weak results for Labor in outer suburbia, which was evidently only in that their primary vote fell by 2.9%. This was almost exactly matched by a rise in support for the Greens, whose 16.3% was the party’s second best ever result in the seat after 2010. The Liberals were down 4.0% in the face of competition from the United Australia Party, which managed a relatively strong 6.7%.
Lyons (Labor 5.2%; 1.4% swing to Labor): Demographically speaking, Lyons was primed to join the Liberal wave in low-income regional Australia. That it failed to do so may very well be down to the fact that the Liberals disassociated themselves mid-campaign with their candidate, Jessica Whelan, over anti-Muslim comments she had made on social media, and directed their supporters to vote for the Nationals. The Nationals duly polled 15.7%, for which there has been no precedent in the state since some early successes for the party in the 1920s. However, that still left them astern of Whelan on 24.2%. Labor member Brian Mitchell, who unseated Liberal one-termer Eric Hutchinson in 2016, was down 3.9% on the primary vote to 36.5%, but he gained 1.3% on two-party preferred after picking up around a quarter of the Nationals’ preferences. With a further boost from redistribution, he now holds a 5.2% margin after gaining the seat by 2.3% in 2016, but given the circumstances he will have a hard time matching that performance next time.
Boerwar @ #190 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 11:29 am
+++1
It’s why I take the time to highlight it every day. It’s insidious. It’s relentless. It’s meant to peel away support from federal Labor, one layer of the onion at a time.
Hello Boerwar
Yes, we are in Fiona Phillips electorate. I have seen her web site, and we will continue to try and apply for anything there that looks like it might benefit us. But so far, we have not found a single disaster relief option that we can qualify for. We have not been badly enough affected for many of the available options (losing future income is not a qualification for these relief options) and the only payment that IS designed to compensate you for loss of future income is the one that the eligibility criteria specifically disqualify us from, because they do not take seasonal income into account.
We can try following up with other MPs, but this is what Fiona assures us she is already doing. The problem is that the government needs to change the eligibility criteria, and they simply refuse.
I have heard about these mobile disaster recovery centres being set up, but the last time I checked, we did not yet have one in our area. I will pursue that, because they sound like a better option than dealing directly with Centrelink, who have proven themselves to be antagonistic and unhelpful in the past. But in this case, I honestly can’t blame Centrelink – they simply cannot override the eligibility criteria.
But thanks for pursuing this.
Kronomex @ #200 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 11:35 am
They are the protestors!
Steve777
I’m with you on that one!
C@tmomma
says:
Comparing what Andrews can do with what Albanese can do is, I presume, a variation of Assassinate Albo and Kill Labor. This sly wafering trick is a constant from peeps like Mundo, Rex and nath. Slimey stuff, actually.
+++1
It’s why I take the time to highlight it every day. It’s insidious. It’s relentless. It’s meant to peel away support from federal Labor, one layer of the onion at a time.
________________________
Actually I was supporting Albo back when C@t said he would be a disaster and other ALP right wingers on here mocked him regularly.
Kronomex
I can hear the people moaning about the climate protesters these days. They would be the same people who in 1970 would have been moaning about those ‘long hairs’ protesting about Vietnam needing a wash a haircut and to go and get a job.
Indeed nath. Fairweather friends and all that springs to mind.
nath @ #205 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 11:37 am
Oh, and while I’m here, responding to your medal polishing, I’ll just let you know that if you try that African contraception line about me again I will, yet again, put it into context and debunk it comprehensively. Again.
‘Kronomex says:
Friday, January 10, 2020 at 11:35 am
Boerwar,
I gather you prefer the protestors stand around dressed in tuxedos and ballgowns sipping tea and saying things like, “I say old chap, what a rum development.”
“Oh dear Cynthia, we can’t have those awful people not doing anything for the environment. Another Iced Vo-Vo Daphne?”’
I take it this is intended to be a rational reponse in support of the protests. The wit is hard to parse.
I have made my views on the timing of this particular set of protests very clear for over a fortnight. I have set out the detailed reasons. So I won’t bore everyone by repeating those. At best they will achieve absolutely nothing. At worst they will set things back because they are creating convenient punching bags for the reactionaries and because they will put off reasonable people who hold that the middle of a national emergency that is killing dozens of people is not the appropriate time to divert scarce resources.
As for what to wear at protests, each to his own, IMO. I have seen some very strange and some very witty attempts. These days I wear a business suit to the protests I attend. The medium is, after all, at least part of the message.
If police are unable to adequately supervise the protest, that would provide an opportunity for groups to infiltrate it with violence and anti-social behaviour.
This would be completely counterproductive to the aims of the protest and diminish any message being sent by the organisers.
‘poroti says:
Friday, January 10, 2020 at 11:40 am
Kronomex
I can hear the people moaning about the climate protesters these days. They would be the same people who in 1970 would have been moaning about those ‘long hairs’ protesting about Vietnam needing a wash a haircut and to go and get a job.’
I doubt that there are statistics on this. I am sure that there was a Special Branch file on me in those days. The notion that it is ALWAYS the right time and the best time to run protests is about as brain dead as the notion that it is always NOT the right time to protest.
yabba
Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 11:28 am
Comment #188
The folk who listen to or read the views of the gentlemen named may tend to lean in the direction of the blather received.
When the views of inexperienced, untrained and unintelligent people on scientific matters expressed via TV, radio, newspaper or internet/social media are received by equally inexper……..untra….unin…… people these may lean in the direction tendered.
I have no idea what this may do to an election.
I have tried the “don’t be a dickhead” and “fuck, you’re stupid” approach – doesn’t work. I tend to try it on myself now and to that end- lunch beckons.
Over and out. 😎
‘Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Friday, January 10, 2020 at 11:44 am
If police are unable to adequately supervise the protest, that would provide an opportunity for groups to infiltrate it with violence and anti-social behaviour.’
IMO, the cops should leave them to it.
My prediction would be that in the wash they would be squealing about the lack of police protection and oversight.
Player One,
I don’t have much sway in the ALP, despite what mountebanks on this blog would have you believe, however I will be starting to see people again soon and if there’s anything I can do, let me know.
Btw, do you know who the Labor Duty Senator is for your electorate? Often you can contact them and get them to ask a question in Senate Estimates in order to highlight an issue. It’s a solution with a longer tail but one which may produce long term results.
The old men of the Richo_Craig_Kelly faction of climate scientists from the PB school of sociology can hardly contain themselves. Pity that their findings and reports are pretty much entirely inconsequential for almost everyone else in Australia today.
Nothing like wishing the worst outcome for your fellow citizens in their struggle to address the climate and bushfire crisis engulfing the country.
P1
You are a target demographic for the Government in its electoral strategies: small business. Might I suggest you send you details in an email to Littleproud’s Office. He has some sort of role in bushfire emergency relief. I would cc that to the Prime Minister’s Office, Stuart Robert’s Office, and to Anne Rushton’s Office.
My sense during the ring around this morning (I made over a dozen phone calls, taking over an hour) is that the Government feels vulnerable and that they are more likely than usual to vary eligibility rules in your favour. In the scheme of things it is a very minor tweak that a minister can make in a few minutes.
The other suggestion is to try to get a variation in eligibility rules through any regional or state tourist organisations. There must be hundreds of businesses suffering your circumstances – with more being created on Kangaroo Island as we post.
Just now. When in trouble always pull the Murdoch Media Confected Crap lever.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1214758081344573441
C@tmomma
says:
Friday, January 10, 2020 at 11:42 am
nath @ #205 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 11:37 am
C@tmomma
says:
Oh, and while I’m here, responding to your medal polishing, I’ll just let you know that if you try that African contraception line about me again I will, yet again, put it into context and debunk it comprehensively. Again.
__________________________
Those were your words. The only money for charitable purposes that you would send to Africa would be for birth control. That was your argument. Nothing for education, health, transport or the environment. Just birth control for Africans. Your words. Not mine.
GG
Fridge magnet stuff: Be Alert AND Alarmed.
Speaking of spotting arsonists, what hapless corner of the continent is being thoughts and prayered with Sleazy from Marketing’s presence today?
Boerwar @ #187 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 11:29 am
I was only half serious…..just feeding the chooks.
mundo says:
Friday, January 10, 2020 at 9:51 am
…”As Mundo said before Scrotty returned from Hawaii, he would just ‘roll over everyone and everything’”…
Why does Mundo insist on talking about Mundo as though Mundo was someone other than Mundo?
Its very strange.
Quoll @ #215 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 8:50 am
Where you attitude is that you should be able to do what you want without considering the consequences of your actions.
A very similar mindset to the global warming deniers.
I have a neighbour who has had a downer on the World lately.
He had his kayak stolen 6 months ago, and since then has been pissed off at everything and everyone.
If a neighbour’s grass is – by his estimation – too green, then he is ready to have them investigated for breaking water restrictions (the “Tank Water In Use” sign is just a ploy, he reckons).
If a tourist drives too fast down a street, he’s ready to report them to the police.
He can tell, just by looking at someone, whether they are a druggie or not. They probably have a meth lab going, he tells me.
Don’t park crookedly, because the one man Vigilante Squad will be writing a note for under your windscreen wiper.
And if your dog pisses on someone’s letter box, or their tree, prepare to be harangued in public.
I report this by way of preface to saying that he is convinced “feral druggies and tourists” are setting the forests alight up and down the coast. He gets all his evidence from The Daily Telegraph, The Australian and 7-Now News, i.e. the front page of Google News.
“They can’t all be lying,” he tells me.
“Yes they can. And they are,” I tell him. Then I show him the statistics, the alternative reports in reputable news publications and even introduce him to the local RFS Captain who tells him point blank that ZERO fires in our general district since the season started in August have been maliciously lit. And that’s over 30 fires. Some carelessness, yes. Even some stupidity. Both none of them malicious.
He STILL won’t accept it. His loathing of society in general since he had his kayak stolen has turned him into someone who just will not face the reality that no-one is committing arson, at least up this way. Arson, it seems, will confirm his mindset that people are just arseholes.
Not everyone is as down on everything as he is, but I wonder if a tendency to blame others for your troubles as a kind of defence mechanism, even as away to make you feel better about your miserable lot in life by finding someone even worse than you are feeling, isn’t fuelling some of this present “It’s all arsonists” undercurrent?
C@tmomma @ #214 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 11:48 am
I don’t know – I will try and find out. Thanks.
Mundo
Your factory chook cackle never varies.
Good quote.
Boerwar @ #216 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 11:53 am
Yes, approaching the tourism organizations is a good idea, because it is our specific industry that has so much “seasonality”. I will try that. Thanks.
I am not sure what the Duty Senator could do that Phillips and her Office are not doing.
From my discussions with Phillip’s Office this morning, they are on the ball.
Just now. When in trouble always pull the Murdoch Media Confected Crap lever.
______
Like clockwork GG!
See? Always responds that he’s already answered the tough ones.
BB
That is an interesting post. I don’t know the answers. He sounds very, very depressed. I did a lot of kayaking and it is wonderfully therapeutic. Perhaps if your whole street clubbed together to buy him a second hand kayak? 50 peeps by $20 would probably get him something decent to get on with. Chunkier versions would cost far less.
Personally, keeping an even keel during the Anthropocene Extinction Event is far from easy. Apart from anything else, global warming and the extinction event are combining to undo most of the larger beneficial achievements of 30 years of hard toil.
I do what I can. I keep a stiff upper lip. I try to look on the bright side of life. I try to lift the other peeps in my life. I try to do things that matter.
Tomorrow is the start of my fund raising event, if it is not smoked out or burned out by the fires to our west that are ready to pounce, perhaps as early as the wee hours of tomorrow morning.
I’ll let youse know how it goes.
P1 , Jenny McAllister is our duty senator in Gilmore, and she is very good. I am sure Fiona can put you in contact with her. Good call C@t
lizzie @ #230 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 9:08 am
Sir Humphrey is an amateur compared to ScoMoFo..
nath @ #218 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 11:55 am
Yeah right.
Walk the talk, nath. Give me the date and the blog name when I allegedly said those things. And if you don’t then I can only presume you don’t want to for the reason that you may well be embarrassed by the truth again. For my own part I won’t waste my time again today finding it. Suffice to say, you have a very poor track record for veracity and that’s what the majority opinion is here, or a sort of perverse truth, EG Theodore has laid out, as practised by Abbott and others like him, whereby you sandwich an iota of truth into a pack of lies.
Actually, now that my long term memory is refreshing itself, I believe I may have made the comments you are casting negative aspersions about in the CONTEXT of the FACT that I have very little money and so my predisposition is to, if I could choose an area to donate what little spare money I have, would be to donate it for contraception for women in Africa who would like it but cannot afford it.
You know, with contemptible plays like this one against me, it’s no wonder you have very little credibility.
Oh, and don’t bother replying, life’s too short to keep bothering with you.
DP
Sleazy from Marketing meant to say ‘Yes!’ But it came out arsey versey.
Today’s winner in the WTAF contest:
https://twitter.com/howroute/status/1215341250536181761
I would have thought bushfires burning the shit out of Victoria showcased day after day in the media with harrowing stories of tragedy and survival and more coming today would be a more effective message than TV vision of protesters marching through the streets of Melbourne screaming and chanting for the removal of Morrison especially on the same day a number of Victorian townships are facing a second round of devastation.
A stark visual contrast between hundreds of volunteer and professional firefighters putting their lives at risk as huge bushfires rage down on towns and communities once again across the state and residents evacuate or stand and fight to save their homes once again across the state compared to protesters marching and chanting for Morrison to go on the streets of Melbourne.
Anyway, the protest organisers and their supporters have made their choice and we shall see what, if any fallout, occurs. Tomorrow Morrison will still be PM and tomorrow Victoria will still be burning.
Boerwar @ #228 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 12:02 pm
A longer term option, as I said and just another one, as I also said. Fiona Phillips, I will agree, is a much better person to have on your side in the electorate than Ann Sudmalis at this time, I think you’d agree.
Player One,
Another thing. Jody McKay has said she will be touring all affected electorates and so if you are able to find out when she is due in your State seat it may be beneficial to highlight your situation with her.
‘C@tmomma says:
Friday, January 10, 2020 at 12:18 pm
Boerwar @ #228 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 12:02 pm
I am not sure what the Duty Senator could do that Phillips and her Office are not doing.
From my discussions with Phillip’s Office this morning, they are on the ball.
A longer term option, as I said and just another one, as I also said. Fiona Phillips, I will agree, is a much better person to have on your side in the electorate than Ann Sudmalis at this time, I think you’d agree.’
I am happy to support the Duty Senator avenue. Many roads are better than one in these circumstances. Phillips reminded me a lot of Gash. They are/were both good local members, IMO.
Sudmalis not so much. At all.
Danama Papers @ #236 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 9:16 am
He mis-spoke.
“Trump: “I give up my salary — it’s $450,000, approximately $450,000 presidential salary — I give it up, usually to drugs.” He’s beginning to sound like Putin.”
He meant to say;
… usually to do drugs.
Yes, Boerwar, exactly. 🙂
Boerwar @ #222 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 11:59 am
Free range only Borewar.
C@tmomma says:
Friday, January 10, 2020 at 10:21 am
…”The person who Tweeted this, and anyone who uses it to argue that the Victorian government is as anti-protest as the Bjelke-Petersen government, or on a ‘slippery slope’ to Police State Authoritarianism, has got the bellows out to stoke a fire they are trying to create around a Premier of a fire-ravaged state that is simply managing the resources he has as best he can and stating the plain truth. Police are required for more important work elsewhere. However, if you want to negotiate the time he’s more than happy to do so”…
………………….
Bullshit.
If I wish to stand in the middle of George Street and wave about a placard, I will do so whenever I damn well please.
If the police or the state are otherwise preoccupied and unable to “negotiate” an appropriate time or provide adequate supervision whilst I engage in a constitutionally protected activity, bad luck.
Anyone who is upset by this is more than welcome to fuck off back to nazi occupied Europe.
C@
Yeah, the last time nath accused me of saying something he then posted a link (inadvertently) to the original comment which showed that I didn’t say it at all.
Zero cred.
Unsurprising to find he never made it into Uni.
Danama Papers @ #230 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 12:12 pm
Rabid self belief.
It’s why he’s a winner and Bill ain’t.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #241 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 11:22 am
The paraphrasing is inaccurate there. What he actually said is that he gives his $450,000 salary to drugs and Elaine. Every quarter. Every. Single. Quarter.
Lucky Elaine. 🙂
And nobody’s written that story yet. But that’s okay!
Not Sure
Morrison is not the only fan of “Quiet (!!) Australians”
poroti says:
Friday, January 10, 2020 at 11:40 am
Kronomex
I can hear the people moaning about the climate protesters these days. They would be the same people who in 1970 would have been moaning about those ‘long hairs’ protesting about Vietnam needing a wash a haircut and to go and get a job.
——————————-
Nah they are totally different situations.
One was against a war with an unpopular draft based on birthdays while the other is basically the usual rent a crowd protesting while not being seen to do anything useful during or after the fires.
This was always badly timed and is basically a vanity act that will not convert one person to the cause and does nothing excepts gives oxygen to the reactionaries. A big own goal.