Call of the board: Tasmania

Some overdue insights into what went wrong for Labor in Tasmania, whose five seats accounted for two of the party’s five losses at the federal election.

Welcome to the penultimate instalment of the Call of the Board series (there will be one more dealing with the territories), wherein the result of last May’s federal election are reviewed in detail seat by seat. Previous episodes dealt with Sydney (here and here), regional New South Wales, Melbourne, regional Victoria, south-east Queensland, regional Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia.

Today we look at Tasmania, which has long been noted as a law unto itself as far as federal electoral politics are concerned. The Liberals managed clean sweeps of the state amid poor national results in 1983 and 1984, and the state likewise went all-in for Labor at their losing elections in 1998 and 2001. The state’s form more recently, and especially last May, suggest a normalising trend – in this case, Labor’s defeats in the northern seats of Bass and Braddon were emblematic of their poor show in white, low-income regional Australia (and they can probably count themselves likely that Lyons wasn’t added to the list).

Conversely, another easy win for independent Andrew Wilkie in the central Hobart seat of Clark (formerly Denison) confirmed the uniquely green-left nature of that seat, while a predictable win for Labor in Franklin typified the party’s ongoing hold on low-income suburbia. It may be worth noting in all this that the state’s economic fortunes appear to be on an upswing, and that this coincides with one of its rare periods of Liberal control at state level. It’s tempting at this moment to speculate that the state has a big future ahead of it as a haven from climate change, with electoral implications as yet unforeseeable.

In turn:

Bass (LIBERAL GAIN 0.4%; 5.8% swing to Liberal): Bass maintained its extraordinary record with Labor’s defeat, changing hands for the eighth time out of ten elections going back to 1993. The latest victim of the curse of Bass was Ross Hart, who joins Labor colleagues Silvia Smith, Jodie Campbell and Geoff Lyons and Liberals Warwick Smith (two non-consecutive terms), Michael Ferguson and Andrew Nikolic on the roll call of one-term members. The only exception to the rule has been Michelle O’Byrne, who won the seat in 1998 and was re-elected in 2001, before losing out in 2004 and entering state politics in 2006. Labor also retained the seat in 2010, but their member at the time, Jodie Campbell, resigned after a single term.

Braddon (LIBERAL GAIN 3.1%; 4.8% swing to Liberal): Northern Tasmania’s other seat has been a slightly tougher nut for the Liberals since Sid Sidebottom ended 23 years of Liberal control in 1998, having been won for party since on three occasions: with Mark Baker’s win in 2004, as part of the famed forestry policy backlash against Labor under Mark Latham (who may have taken the episode to heart); with the heavy defeat of the Labor government in 2013, when it was won by former state MP Brett Whiteley; and now with Gavin Pearce’s win for the Liberals. Also in this mix was the Super Saturday by-election of July 28, 2018, at which the now-defeated Labor member, Justine Keay, was narrowly returned. Such was the attention focused on the Coalition’s weak result in the Queensland seat of Longman on the same day that few recognised what was a highly inauspicious result for Labor, whose 0.1% swing was notably feeble for an opposition party at a by-election. Much was made at that time of the performance of independent Craig Garland, who polled 10.6% at the by-election before failing to make an impression as a candidate for the Senate. Less was said about the fact that another independent, Craig Brakey, slightly exceeded Garland’s by-election result at the election after being overlooked for Liberal preselection. Both major parties were duly well down on the primary vote as compared with 2016, Liberal by 4.1% and Labor by 7.5%, but a much more conservative mix of minor party contenders translated into a stronger flow of preferences to the Liberals.

Clark (Independent 22.1% versus Labor; 4.4% swing to Independent): Since squeaking over the line at Labor’s expense after Duncan Kerr retired in 2010, independent Andrew Wilkie has been piling on the primary vote with each his three subsequent re-elections, and this time made it just over the line to a majority with 50.0%, up from 44.0% in 2016. This translated into a 4.4% increase in Wilkie’s margin over Labor after preferences. For what it’s worth, Labor picked up a 0.8% swing in two-party terms against the Liberals.

Franklin (Labor 12.2%; 1.5% swing to Labor): The tide has been flowing in Labor’s favour in this seat since Harry Quick seized it from the Liberals in 1993, which was manifested on this occasion by a 1.5% swing to Julie Collins, who succeeded Quick in 2007. This went against a national trend of weak results for Labor in outer suburbia, which was evidently only in that their primary vote fell by 2.9%. This was almost exactly matched by a rise in support for the Greens, whose 16.3% was the party’s second best ever result in the seat after 2010. The Liberals were down 4.0% in the face of competition from the United Australia Party, which managed a relatively strong 6.7%.

Lyons (Labor 5.2%; 1.4% swing to Labor): Demographically speaking, Lyons was primed to join the Liberal wave in low-income regional Australia. That it failed to do so may very well be down to the fact that the Liberals disassociated themselves mid-campaign with their candidate, Jessica Whelan, over anti-Muslim comments she had made on social media, and directed their supporters to vote for the Nationals. The Nationals duly polled 15.7%, for which there has been no precedent in the state since some early successes for the party in the 1920s. However, that still left them astern of Whelan on 24.2%. Labor member Brian Mitchell, who unseated Liberal one-termer Eric Hutchinson in 2016, was down 3.9% on the primary vote to 36.5%, but he gained 1.3% on two-party preferred after picking up around a quarter of the Nationals’ preferences. With a further boost from redistribution, he now holds a 5.2% margin after gaining the seat by 2.3% in 2016, but given the circumstances he will have a hard time matching that performance next time.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,795 comments on “Call of the board: Tasmania”

Comments Page 3 of 36
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  1. guytaur says:
    Friday, January 10, 2020 at 9:11 am
    @RohanLeppert tweets

    Today’s circumstances will be debated at length. But we can’t consent to Government dictating specific times when protests in the public realm are not allowed; that’s a slippery slope to the removal of established human rights and freedoms.

    ‘Don’t protest because it’s easier for us to provide police chaperones another time’ is a dangerous political precedent whatever the motivation, even (perhaps especially) in a time of crisis.

    _________________________________

    Asking is not dictating.

  2. G

    “The Greens being extreme will go away as more people wake up.”

    Unfortunately. imo this perception is set in concrete amongst the subset of swinging voters in marginal electorates who determine elections.

    The memes re Greens and “greenies” being responsible for the bushfires is spreading like wildfire in the social media worlds they live in, and in their own communities.

    Murdoch / tabloid media is their source of ‘information’. Consequently, confirmation bias is solidified even further.

  5. Just another little thing, but Dan Andrews does not miss a beat.

    Dan Andrews
    @DanielAndrewsMP
    ·
    33s
    We’ve authorised Victorian pharmacists to dispense up to one month’s supply of prescription medication to fire affected Victorians who’ve lost their physical script.

    If you’ve had to leave home, the last thing you should worry about is getting the medication you need.

  6. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/science/australia-fire-ecology-insects.html

    SYDNEY, Australia — When Tanya Latty, an entomologist at the University of Sydney, started studying a species of velvet worm 18 months ago, she thought it was just a side project.

    “It’s an adorable, adorable animal,” she said, speaking on the phone from her home in Sydney. The worms — of the phylum Onychophora, they are cousins of arthropods and somewhat resemble caterpillars — have a “beautiful blue velvety texture” and “cute little stubby antenna,”

    Dr. Latty said. The worms sleep together in a pile, she noted, and for that reason she and her colleagues have been trying to popularize the phrase “a cuddle of velvet worms” as a collective noun.

    A fascinating read –

    ‘The whole world on their shoulders’

    Australia is megadiverse, meaning that it belongs to a group of countries that together are home to 70 percent of the world’s biological diversity but make up just 10 percent of Earth’s surface. The nation harbors 250,000 insect species, of which only about one-third have been named. Like insects everywhere, most elude appreciation.

    The “Federal Government Department of Pretending to Give a Fuck About Stuff and That” is deeply concerned that the bushfires have seriously damaged the spivocracy LNPs reputation and therefore have engaged in a crowd funding exercise to raise cash to create a Committee to Investigate the Labor parties response to the so-call bushfire crisis.

  7. Pegasus

    Thats why I noted Alan Jones comment. It puts a crack in the bubble. It comes from one of their trusted sources.

    Facts will get through and get change. You just have to look at the fact that more independents are getting elected. The trend has started.

    The coverage is starting to resemble that of the Marriage Equality debate. Hopefully the process will be quicker than the time from the ACT being blocked to the vote in Federal Parliament overriding Howard’s discriminatory bill.

  8. https://www.sbs.com.au/news/selfish-and-reckless-victorian-government-criticise-climate-protest-on-day-of-fire-danger

    Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews sent organisers of the protest a stern warning on Thursday, telling ABC Radio “they risk losing support from those like him that believe in climate change”.

    There’s “asking” and there’s “asking”.

    Now is not the time…..

    The would-be-protesters are being demonised before the protest has even been held.

  10. “We’ve authorised Victorian pharmacists to dispense up to one month’s supply of prescription medication to fire affected Victorians who’ve lost their physical script.”

    Good one from Andrews. Practical support and certainly not a minor issue for those affected.

  11. Greemsborough Growler @ #105 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 9:51 am

    Just another little thing, but Dan Andrews does not miss a beat.

    Dan Andrews
    @DanielAndrewsMP
    ·
    33s
    We’ve authorised Victorian pharmacists to dispense up to one month’s supply of prescription medication to fire affected Victorians who’ve lost their physical script.

    If you’ve had to leave home, the last thing you should worry about is getting the medication you need.

    Can the FPLP have Dan Andrews, GG? 🙂

  12. C@t

    You must admit that most of the MSM are (and have been) doing a pretty good job of rolling over for Scomo. He doesn’t even need to tickle their tummies to get the right response.

  13. lizzie @ #96 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 9:45 am

    I didn’t think I was an education snob, but I’m prepared to change my mind. 😉

    Carrick Ryan
    @realCarrickRyan
    ·
    17h
    The qualifications of Australia’s most well known climate change deniers:

    Craig Kelly: Yr 12
    Rowan Dean: Yr 12
    Kerry-anne Kennerley: Yr 12
    Piers Ackerman: Yr 10
    Andrew Bolt: Yr 12
    Alan Jones: Arts Degree
    Prue Macsween: Dip in Advertising.

    Think about this.

    Yep. It’s the Australian Idiocracy writ large.

  15. lizzie @ #112 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 9:59 am

    C@t

    You must admit that most of the MSM are (and have been) doing a pretty good job of rolling over for Scomo. He doesn’t even need to tickle their tummies to get the right response.

    Which is exactly why I will continue the debate without them and never roll over myself. Despite mundo pronouncing, like the gormless fool he is, that Scott Morrison has won the NEXT federal election already!

  16. Tristo
    I would believe that your observations are correct, particularly where you are presently domiciled. From my observations the views from around Armidale are not comfined to that area.
    It seems that the concept of climate change, its broad impact and time lag are too diificult for our society.
    As l compose my opinion I received a call from a fire ravaged farmer, who was able to include the backburn, greenie and lack of dams mantra in a short snarl.
    Morrison loaves and fishes approach with government money will probably win more support for the LNP and shore up the support of the twiggys and ginas of our far flung land.
    What a mess we have created.

  17. Queen Victoria
    @Vic_Rollison
    ·
    25s
    Analogy for spreaders of arsonist disinformation:
    Every day I start my car by turning the key in the ignition. It’s worked fine for years, but yesterday I started the car and it exploded into a ball of flames! There’s clearly a problem with the key. Let’s hunt down all the keys.

  20. This is the US Cavalry arrival we all like to see.

    Shane Fitzsimmons
    @RFSCommissioner
    US fire fighters arrived at Sydney Int Airport this week, on their way to assist with fire fighting in Victoria.
    Coming through, all gathered gave a spontaneous & lengthy round of applause, reflecting the gratitude & admiration we all have for their generosity. #NSWRFS
    @NSWRFS

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1215194398721368065

  21. Vogon

    The trend is up. I did not say we had got 100 independents magically springing up at the last election.

    We did get more people challenging.

    Including the state ones from Nationals areas. Even the Hanson and Shooters and Fishers are a sign of dissent with the LNP. Questioning has started in seats that have had a vote Nationals culture for decades.

  22. In KI, there is a big fight already about forestry. The mayor has said KI should ban forestry (they have pine and blue gum) which has been strongly resisted by the forestry companies CEO.

  23. The level of education should not be taken to indicate political, scientific or perhaps religious leanings.

    A roll call of Australia’s Prime Ministers will show that some of our illustrious folk have no University degree.

    Smoko . ☕

  25. “To think that they view the situation through the Holy War/Crusade lens is frightening.”

    ***

    You’ve hit the nail on the head there, C@t.

  26. KayJay @ #123 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 10:12 am

    The level of education should not be taken to indicate political, scientific or perhaps religious leanings.

    A roll call of Australia’s Prime Ministers will show that some of our illustrious folk have no University degree.

    Smoko . ☕

    KayJay,
    I love your work and you bring the down-to-earth to the blog every day, but just because SOME have been aware enough, and I think you are referring maybe to Ben Chifley and Paul Keating, among others, to not have a tertiary education but end up as leaders, doesn’t mean you can excuse those who revel in their wilful ignorance, such as those on the list.

  27. The level of education should not be taken to indicate political, scientific or perhaps religious leanings.

    I agree about political and religious belief. However, if you have no scientific credentials or expertise yourself, you have no credible grounds on which to criticise or dismiss the scientific conclusions of those who do have relevant expertise.

  28. guytaur says:
    Friday, January 10, 2020 at 9:11 am

    @RohanLeppert tweets

    …”Today’s circumstances will be debated at length. But we can’t consent to Government dictating specific times when protests in the public realm are not allowed; that’s a slippery slope to the removal of established human rights and freedoms.

    ‘Don’t protest because it’s easier for us to provide police chaperones another time’ is a dangerous political precedent whatever the motivation, even (perhaps especially) in a time of crisis”…

    ………..

    Yep, those socially progressive Victorians are attempting to pull the same anti-democratic crap Bjelke Peterson’s bastard offspring are doing up ‘ere.

  32. C@t
    “is as gormless and stupid as he is and will accept being rolled over.”
    The last election result shocked and at this point I’ve no reason to believe that the “gormless and stupid” will have become something else.
    A good example of “gormless and stupid” are the yahoos on the pub verandah in Qld cheering for more jobs coming from the mining industry, an industry intent on automating every aspect of their operation.
    Of the dam devotees, in a semi arid landscape without enough water to fill the existing dams.
    Or the anti desalination mob abusing the government as they swoosh inside their Jacuzzi.
    The biggest beneficiaries of the money raised for bush fire victims, their towns and farms will funnel deep into the pockets of the well off.
    The very next basket of political polling will be crucial to those of us with a non LNP viewpoint.

  33. Another reminder of how the message will be getting through the bubble.

    @RosAtkins tweets

    Our take on the role arson plays in Australia’s bushfires now available on @BBCNews website. The information war that’s playing out in the UK and US is in full swing in Australia too. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-australia-51043826/australia-fires-debunking-arson-emergency-claims

    Many of those swinging voters like the BBC. Its the “Mother Country”

  35. @RohanLeppert tweets

    …”Today’s circumstances will be debated at length. But we can’t consent to Government dictating specific times when protests in the public realm are not allowed; that’s a slippery slope to the removal of established human rights and freedoms.

    And this is another garbage Tweet.

    The person who Tweeted this, and anyone who uses it to argue that the Victorian government is as anti-protest as the Bjelke-Petersen government, or on a ‘slippery slope’ to Police State Authoritarianism, has got the bellows out to stoke a fire they are trying to create around a Premier of a fire-ravaged state that is simply managing the resources he has as best he can and stating the plain truth. Police are required for more important work elsewhere. However, if you want to negotiate the time he’s more than happy to do so.

  36. As rangers re-entered Kosciuszko National Park after last week’s devastating bushfire, they were shocked at the destruction of nature and history, which they say could take centuries to recover.

    The Dunns Road fire tore through Batlow and into Kosciuszko National Park, decimating much of the landscape.

    It also destroyed homes and killed Goulburn man David Harrison, who was defending a friend’s property.

    In the aftermath, stepping out into the blackened, smouldering landscape of Kosciuszko, the first thing to hit you is the smell of smoke.

    Then, you are confronted by — of all things — wasps.

    The bright yellow of protective gear worn by firemen and cameramen alike is the only colour remaining in the ashen high country.

    Drawn to it, the insects cling to the suits and sting any skin not covered up.

    Their vast habitat has been completely transformed by the massive blaze, but they are far from the only species affected.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-10/australia-bushfire-kosciuszko-snowy-wildlife-nature-destroyed/11856374

  38. guytaur @ #71 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 9:17 am

    BBC’s China Correspondent tweets

    @StephenMcDonell

    #Australia… https://twitter.com/alexbhturnbull/status/1215179092653301761

    @alexbhturnbull tweets

    Maybe the greatest foreign influence operation of all was running a capital intensive boom which empowered extractive industries, drove the currency up to kill manufacturing and left our economy with resource oligarchs subject to significant pressure. #auspol

    and at the same time knowing those oligarchs’ preference was to optimise fiscal and labor structures for extraction rather than a deeper and more resilient network of services and manufacturing.

    In turn making the country less able to push back politically on any pressures because of a concentration of power and electoral donations.

    Turning the mid size power and country into a compliant quarry – which was the plan all along.

    I honestly can’t understand why more Australian’s can’t seem to understand this.

    Is it because it is just too painful to admit just how badly we have been suckered?

    Quiet, Australians!

  39. Daniel Andrews was merely advising would-be protesters that in his opinion their planned demonstration would be likely to be counter-productive. That’s a long way from Blelke-Petersen.

  40. C@tmomma @ #111 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 9:59 am

    Greemsborough Growler @ #105 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 9:51 am

    Just another little thing, but Dan Andrews does not miss a beat.

    Dan Andrews
    @DanielAndrewsMP
    ·
    33s
    We’ve authorised Victorian pharmacists to dispense up to one month’s supply of prescription medication to fire affected Victorians who’ve lost their physical script.

    If you’ve had to leave home, the last thing you should worry about is getting the medication you need.

    Can the FPLP have Dan Andrews, GG? 🙂

    Not sure what FPLP might be.

  41. Cat

    Nah now is not the time is the suppression of people’s voices. Much as some want a China Hong Kong style you are allowed to protest now kind of democracy.

    Real Democratic protests look like the French don’t change our pensions ones without the violence.

    The fact is the government has a role to play and that includes managing safety in a society that values protest.

    Peg is right. Lots of demonising going on before the protests have even happened.

  42. Seems like a ridiculous statement to suggest Australian citizens gathering to voice their concerns about the appalling inadequecy of their federal government over the climate and bushfire crisis is going to lose support for CC action.

    Are people going to stop believing in anthropogenic climate change and the destruction wrought across the country because of it?
    Are people who are genuinely concerned about the future for their children and for our whole country really going to capitulate to the coalers and fossil fuel lobby and advocate for more fossil fuels in response?

    Also seems patronising and insulting to assume that anyone who turns up to publicly show their fellow citizens how they feel about the destruction and desolation wrought on their country will want to do anything other than express their concerns loudly but peacefully and would require the riot squads to be safe. As if it is all just some ideologically driven fantasy, not the expression of citizens real and justifiable concerns about the future given the circumstances they now face.

    Despite the vigorous campaign waged by the Murdochracy and other media outlets against XR, a survey still found over 50% of Australians supported their protests in Oct, well before the bushfire and climate crisis we are right in the middle of had really taken off.

    “Voters were also asked questions this week about Extinction Rebellion, a global protest movement calling for aggressive action on the climate crisis. The group is spearheading protests in major cities around the world, and its tactics are polarising.

    Sentiment in the survey is also polarised. For voters in the sample who are aware of Extinction Rebellion and its motives, 52% support the campaign either strongly or somewhat, and 44% oppose the protest activity either strongly or somewhat.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/29/essential-poll-most-think-economic-stimulus-more-important-than-surplus

    A peaceful coming together of thousands of Australians on the streets of their towns and cities would I think be understood by many people, after the searing few months we have had, and likely more to come.

  45. Vogon

    You forget the power and authority of governments.
    You forget the assumption of the police they need the riot squad there.

    Last time we saw the police over the top policing complete with indiscriminate spraying of pepper spray.

    Edit: The militarisation of police is an unfortunate trend to be following. Keep it up and we will see the violence we have seen in France and other jurisdictions.

  46. To whom it may concern.

    Regarding education.

    Generalisations of a subset is a fruitless and pointless exercise.

    Most of the current Parliament have a degree – in some cases I doubt that I would allow some of them to know how to tie their own shoelaces.

    The quiet Australians pays their money and takes their choice.

    Regarding Global Warming – some may think that Dr. Lomborg (for instance) sound just about the “bees knees”.

    How to counter this? FIIK – “The Australian” print his (Lomborg’s) articles.

    I rely on my GP because I don’t have a medical degree but regarding Global Warming, Gravity and Evolution I pays my money and takes my choice because I have not spent the years studying and researching.

    Here endeth the lesson. Thenkew.

    P.S. Do I support the opinions of the gentlemen referenced earlier with little education – the short answer is NO.

  47. Just saw something very depressing. A copy of the dead wood West Australian. The entire front page and the first 6 pages entirely devoted to Harry and the ‘Megxit’. A large fire overnight threatening the Southern suburbs, pretty topical eh ? Page 7.

    I might join mundo and the gloom brigade. A couple of months from now the goldfish will be back to concentrating on My Kitchen Rules etc etc.

  49. Morrison is insisting that he was part of early planning for the fire season, but I simply don’t believe it.

    That’s his style: to not only claim he’s helping, but was helping more, and earlier than anyone else.

    So Morrison had a handle on the bushfire crisis not just before Christmas, not when he hugged people in Wauchope in October, not when the Fire ex-Commissioners contacted him, not when the strategy plans came in for the 2019 season, but way back, when the 2018 strategy plans were drafted, then were held over until 2019. He was YEARS ahead of everyone else (despite not even being PM at the time).

    No-one can tell him anything because he already knows. So there’s no need to consult with experts. He has his own: himself.

    Australia not only has practical, effective Climate Change policies and targets, but has policies and targets that are better and more effective than most other countries’, were in place before other countries’ policies, will be fulfilled sooner (in fact “in a canter”) and which are the envy of the world and of his political opponents (who only wish they could be as successful at this Climate Change game as he is).

    Give him a chance to involve a General or an Admiral in a PR presentation, where he can rattle off acronyms and be on blokesy first name terms with them, and he’s good for another couple of billion thrown into the mix.

    (I would be willing to bet he flopped at Cadets when he attended Sydney Boys’ High).

    If a journo asks you a difficult question, answer another one, breathe thought your ears and talk out a Wall Of Sound until time’s up.

    Only ScoMo can believe that

    “We have been considering our position since 2018, reconsidered it in 2019, and have considered it continuously ever since, and when our considerations are finalised, in due time and of course after they have been put through the Cabinet and all state and other federal stakeholders, those considerations will be announced as part of a well established process involving the Premiers and local authorities up and down the chain of responsibility”

    is a substitute for

    “Not yet”

    when asked if a National Bushfire Policy has been finalized.

    On the razor’s edge of Australian politics my opinion is that a statistically significant number of voters have heard one too many glib ScoMo excuses since Christmas. Not all, but quite a few have switched him off permanently.

    It’s always happened to him before, and it’s happening again: the punters – whether they be his employers, his colleagues, or the voters – get sick of the constant stream of bullshit, and get rid of him.

  50. Veiled threats or polite words?

    G @ 10:34 am

    Exactly.

    Andrews endorsed the police tactics at the protests during mining conference, tactics that were widely condemned at the time.

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