Call of the board: Tasmania

Some overdue insights into what went wrong for Labor in Tasmania, whose five seats accounted for two of the party’s five losses at the federal election.

Welcome to the penultimate instalment of the Call of the Board series (there will be one more dealing with the territories), wherein the result of last May’s federal election are reviewed in detail seat by seat. Previous episodes dealt with Sydney (here and here), regional New South Wales, Melbourne, regional Victoria, south-east Queensland, regional Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia.

Today we look at Tasmania, which has long been noted as a law unto itself as far as federal electoral politics are concerned. The Liberals managed clean sweeps of the state amid poor national results in 1983 and 1984, and the state likewise went all-in for Labor at their losing elections in 1998 and 2001. The state’s form more recently, and especially last May, suggest a normalising trend – in this case, Labor’s defeats in the northern seats of Bass and Braddon were emblematic of their poor show in white, low-income regional Australia (and they can probably count themselves likely that Lyons wasn’t added to the list).

Conversely, another easy win for independent Andrew Wilkie in the central Hobart seat of Clark (formerly Denison) confirmed the uniquely green-left nature of that seat, while a predictable win for Labor in Franklin typified the party’s ongoing hold on low-income suburbia. It may be worth noting in all this that the state’s economic fortunes appear to be on an upswing, and that this coincides with one of its rare periods of Liberal control at state level. It’s tempting at this moment to speculate that the state has a big future ahead of it as a haven from climate change, with electoral implications as yet unforeseeable.

In turn:

Bass (LIBERAL GAIN 0.4%; 5.8% swing to Liberal): Bass maintained its extraordinary record with Labor’s defeat, changing hands for the eighth time out of ten elections going back to 1993. The latest victim of the curse of Bass was Ross Hart, who joins Labor colleagues Silvia Smith, Jodie Campbell and Geoff Lyons and Liberals Warwick Smith (two non-consecutive terms), Michael Ferguson and Andrew Nikolic on the roll call of one-term members. The only exception to the rule has been Michelle O’Byrne, who won the seat in 1998 and was re-elected in 2001, before losing out in 2004 and entering state politics in 2006. Labor also retained the seat in 2010, but their member at the time, Jodie Campbell, resigned after a single term.

Braddon (LIBERAL GAIN 3.1%; 4.8% swing to Liberal): Northern Tasmania’s other seat has been a slightly tougher nut for the Liberals since Sid Sidebottom ended 23 years of Liberal control in 1998, having been won for party since on three occasions: with Mark Baker’s win in 2004, as part of the famed forestry policy backlash against Labor under Mark Latham (who may have taken the episode to heart); with the heavy defeat of the Labor government in 2013, when it was won by former state MP Brett Whiteley; and now with Gavin Pearce’s win for the Liberals. Also in this mix was the Super Saturday by-election of July 28, 2018, at which the now-defeated Labor member, Justine Keay, was narrowly returned. Such was the attention focused on the Coalition’s weak result in the Queensland seat of Longman on the same day that few recognised what was a highly inauspicious result for Labor, whose 0.1% swing was notably feeble for an opposition party at a by-election. Much was made at that time of the performance of independent Craig Garland, who polled 10.6% at the by-election before failing to make an impression as a candidate for the Senate. Less was said about the fact that another independent, Craig Brakey, slightly exceeded Garland’s by-election result at the election after being overlooked for Liberal preselection. Both major parties were duly well down on the primary vote as compared with 2016, Liberal by 4.1% and Labor by 7.5%, but a much more conservative mix of minor party contenders translated into a stronger flow of preferences to the Liberals.

Clark (Independent 22.1% versus Labor; 4.4% swing to Independent): Since squeaking over the line at Labor’s expense after Duncan Kerr retired in 2010, independent Andrew Wilkie has been piling on the primary vote with each his three subsequent re-elections, and this time made it just over the line to a majority with 50.0%, up from 44.0% in 2016. This translated into a 4.4% increase in Wilkie’s margin over Labor after preferences. For what it’s worth, Labor picked up a 0.8% swing in two-party terms against the Liberals.

Franklin (Labor 12.2%; 1.5% swing to Labor): The tide has been flowing in Labor’s favour in this seat since Harry Quick seized it from the Liberals in 1993, which was manifested on this occasion by a 1.5% swing to Julie Collins, who succeeded Quick in 2007. This went against a national trend of weak results for Labor in outer suburbia, which was evidently only in that their primary vote fell by 2.9%. This was almost exactly matched by a rise in support for the Greens, whose 16.3% was the party’s second best ever result in the seat after 2010. The Liberals were down 4.0% in the face of competition from the United Australia Party, which managed a relatively strong 6.7%.

Lyons (Labor 5.2%; 1.4% swing to Labor): Demographically speaking, Lyons was primed to join the Liberal wave in low-income regional Australia. That it failed to do so may very well be down to the fact that the Liberals disassociated themselves mid-campaign with their candidate, Jessica Whelan, over anti-Muslim comments she had made on social media, and directed their supporters to vote for the Nationals. The Nationals duly polled 15.7%, for which there has been no precedent in the state since some early successes for the party in the 1920s. However, that still left them astern of Whelan on 24.2%. Labor member Brian Mitchell, who unseated Liberal one-termer Eric Hutchinson in 2016, was down 3.9% on the primary vote to 36.5%, but he gained 1.3% on two-party preferred after picking up around a quarter of the Nationals’ preferences. With a further boost from redistribution, he now holds a 5.2% margin after gaining the seat by 2.3% in 2016, but given the circumstances he will have a hard time matching that performance next time.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,795 comments on “Call of the board: Tasmania”

Comments Page 2 of 36
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  1. Morrison is insisting that he was part of early planning for the fire season, but I simply don’t believe it. I bet the only advance strategies he has ever seriously thought about are the “how do I get preselected for Cook” and “how do we can get rid of Turnbull?” ones.

  2. Senator Murray Watt
    @MurrayWatt

    “For more than a decade now we have been warned that the longer you wait to mitigate climate change, the greater the cost.
    That, like every other warning the scientists and economists issued, has now come to pass…”

    In May last year, in the run-up to the election, the government refused to countenance the economic cost of climate change. Instead, it was parading highly contentious economic modelling by Brian Fisher claiming all manner of financial doom should Labor win the election and enact its emissions reduction policies.

    Fisher did not address the economic effects of not acting, and the government did not consider that to be a shortcoming when it was pointed out.

    Yet, for more than a decade now we have been warned that the longer you wait to mitigate climate change, the greater the cost.

    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/morrison-is-now-counting-the-cost-of-climate-denialism-20200109-p53pzi

  3. On John Bolton testifying before the House separately from any Senate impeachment trial.

    Manu RajuVerified account@mkraju
    43m43 minutes ago
    Schiff added: “There’s little to be gained by having him testify separately and then have the Senate get the stale records. If we’re doing this rationally and we’re trying to achieve a fair trial, he should testify before the Senate.”

    I note McConnell is now openly musing about changing the Senate rules to commence a trial without the articles of impeachment being sent from the House.

  4. Watching our politicians fumble through the bushfire crisis, I’m overwhelmed by déjà vu

    https://theconversation.com/watching-our-politicians-fumble-through-the-bushfire-crisis-im-overwhelmed-by-deja-vu-129338

    As someone who has studied Australian climate policy and politics closely, this summer’s bushfire crisis have been both heartbreaking and bewildering. The grave warnings politicians ignored for so long have now come to pass.
    :::
    Here are five recurring themes in Australian politics when it comes to climate change and bushfires:

    1. Blaming ‘greenies’

    2. Stoking a city versus country divide

    3. Experts ignored by politicians

    4. Leaders not fronting up

    5. ‘Jobs, jobs, jobs’ mantra
    :::
    Only sustained citizen pressure will prevent a repeat of the past 30 years of political failures on climate change. The public must stay informed and demand better from our elected representatives.

    Politicians can, when pressed, make better decisions. In April last year, the New Zealand government banned offshore oil and gas exploration after years of public pressure. And the following month, the UK Parliament declared a climate emergency after months of protests by activist group Extinction Rebellion.

    It’s often said those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. But the world must act radically in the next decade to avoid catastrophic global warming. We cannot afford another 30 years of the same old mistakes.

  5. @C@tmomma

    I moved from Tasmania to New South Wales in February last year. I cannot say what the mood towards the Federal government is like in other parts of state.

    However here in this part of New England there has been little change in recent months. As I have said before there are plenty of people who want more dams built and blaming arsonists or ‘Greenies’ for the bushfires :-/

  6. It must be a little confusing being a leftie rightie! One day you can attack the Greens for being too zealous on action against climate change. The next day you can attack the conservatives for not doing everything the greens suggest!

  8. Good Morning

    zoomster

    Good to hear you are safe. I hope the predictions are worse than the reality of course.

    Keep staying safe and well. Best of luck in trying circumstances.

  9. Confessions @ #53 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 8:59 am

    On John Bolton testifying before the House separately from any Senate impeachment trial.

    Manu RajuVerified account@mkraju
    43m43 minutes ago
    Schiff added: “There’s little to be gained by having him testify separately and then have the Senate get the stale records. If we’re doing this rationally and we’re trying to achieve a fair trial, he should testify before the Senate.”

    I note McConnell is now openly musing about changing the Senate rules to commence a trial without the articles of impeachment being sent from the House.

    All of which will be filed away by the Democrats for future use against the Republicans. That’s the one thing he refuses to acknowledge with his contortions to aid Trump.

  10. A Blind Refugee With Schizophrenia Was In Detention For The Entire 2010s. He Just Won A Huge Court Case.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/hannahryan/tamil-refugee-australia-indefinite-detention-mental-illness

    A 36-year-old Tamil refugee and torture survivor who is legally blind, and has schizophrenia and dementia, has been held in immigration detention for an entire decade by Australia.

    And he remains locked up, despite a judge deciding on Christmas Eve that his situation was so absurd it could be likened to Joseph Heller’s famous novel Catch-22.

    The Dec. 24 decision could also have huge ramifications for thousands of other refugees in Australia who have been denied visas and indefinitely detained under the controversial “character” test.

    Deva (a pseudonym) arrived by boat on Australia’s Christmas Island in March 2010, after fleeing persecution in Sri Lanka, where he had been tortured by the army. He feared further torture or a forced disappearance.

    Australia accepted Deva’s refugee claim later that year, but in 2011 the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) spy agency flagged him as a security risk, a decision he could not challenge because it was based on secret evidence and reasons.

  11. Tristo

    There will always be a core of support for the LNP like the cult for Trump.

    Unlike the US here the trick is to convince the swinging voters not the base to turn out.
    I do believe the tide has turned against the LNP and things will change.

    Yes that includes the narrative about the Greens.

    The international reactions and the protests will have an impact.
    Especially because governments like Andrews are saying don’t protest today.
    Protestors using their free speech and making the point while the focus is on the fires.

    Its the only way to cut through the bubble. Get the right to condemn the protests and the low information voters will know students are on strike again.

  13. @political_alert tweets

    Shadow Minister for Health @Bowenchris is in Sydney today and will hold a doorstop at 10am to discuss today’s reports of a strained hospital system under the Morrison Government, as well as the Labor Party’s health response to the bushfire crisis #auspol

  14. Ian Mannix
    @sedvitae
    ·
    1m
    #mallacoota fires Dec 30-31. And it takes #ADF till yesterday to resupply town with essentials. #morrison was late asking them but they stood up Reserve in November, and #Sale and #Nowra defence facilities are nearby. Someone needs to explain who and why they failed our community

  15. @RohanLeppert tweets

    Today’s circumstances will be debated at length. But we can’t consent to Government dictating specific times when protests in the public realm are not allowed; that’s a slippery slope to the removal of established human rights and freedoms.

    ‘Don’t protest because it’s easier for us to provide police chaperones another time’ is a dangerous political precedent whatever the motivation, even (perhaps especially) in a time of crisis.

  16. Boerwar

    Another good reason for the Americans to get Trudeau to make the claim is that who would believe anything coming from the White House ?

  17. @janinegebert tweets

    Scott Morrison blatantly lying repeatedly on 7.30 Roport about emission reduction and other things and getting an easy ride. Kerrie O’Brien and Barrie Cassidy can you please come out of retirement? Misguided politeness is killing us.

  18. https://johnmenadue.com/john-menadue-a-repost-drug-policy-reform-series-2/

    Attached is a collection of articles on drug policy reform, which were published as a series on Pearls and Irritations between 6 and 11 August 2018. This series is designed to draw attention to this important issue, and to the failure of our current policies.

    Present drug policies are not working. Drug use with its enormous personal, social and national cost is increasing rapidly. This is despite the very expensive regulatory activities, particularly by police and Border Force. The ‘war on drugs’ has failed not just in Australia but around the world.

  20. Confessions @ #20 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 5:06 am

    The never Trump group headed by Rick Wilson, Steve Schmidt and George Conway releases its first ad. This one targets evangelicals.

    https://youtu.be/yoglNFN5-Js

    If that advert has any effect at all, it will be the opposite of what it is intended to achieve.

    His evangelical supporters already know all that about him, and either don’t care or are in full support of him. Juxtapositioning his words with those of evangelical leaders was a bad move. I can see evengelicals being reinforced in their support for Trump because of their leader’s words and not be swayed at all by Trump’s. His words are all history now. They didn’t care about them in 2016, they won’t care about them in 2020.

    I expected better. A LOT better.

  21. BBC’s China Correspondent tweets

    @StephenMcDonell

    #Australia… https://twitter.com/alexbhturnbull/status/1215179092653301761

    @alexbhturnbull tweets

    Maybe the greatest foreign influence operation of all was running a capital intensive boom which empowered extractive industries, drove the currency up to kill manufacturing and left our economy with resource oligarchs subject to significant pressure. #auspol

    and at the same time knowing those oligarchs’ preference was to optimise fiscal and labor structures for extraction rather than a deeper and more resilient network of services and manufacturing.

    In turn making the country less able to push back politically on any pressures because of a concentration of power and electoral donations.

    Turning the mid size power and country into a compliant quarry – which was the plan all along.

  22. guytaur

    I don’t agree that Rowland gave Morrison an “easy ride” because he did argue back on several answers, but the PM has now perfected his gaslighting to a high standard.

  24. Lizzie

    I did not watch it. I expected the gas lighting. I will take your word for it. Of course Rowland may look good compared to Sales.

    I hope 7:30 has the Greens and the Climate Council on to counter the gas lighting claims by the PM.

  25. poroti
    Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 8:52 am
    Comment #49

    KayJay

    Very nice flowers, you have won the

    “Golden Lily with Oak Leaves” which will take pride of place in my

    Awards Cabinet

    The Colesworths delivery lady/gentleman will be oh so envious.

    Q. What is the new term to be used instead of “smoko.”*

    *a slang term used on building sites in Australia, meaning a morning-tea break, … Smoko is a term used in Australia and New Zealand by builders and the likes.

  26. Dan P:

    It’s their first ad, so plenty more to come presumably. We are not the target audience, so it’s little wonder the ad doesn’t resonate with us. But it apparently does for those for whom it is intended.

    Kedron Bardwell@KedronBardwell
    6h6 hours ago
    For those like me who were raised in evangelical churches, this is hard to watch.

    But the last 4 years have been hard to watch. Opening our eyes to what is going on is a first, important step. Via @ProjectLincoln

  27. Confessions and Dan P

    It takes time to change a narrative with advertising.

    The smart advertisers will feature the Christian Today article points at some stage too.

    All the never Trumpers have to achieve is to have the evangelicals to stay at home.

  28. Ugh! Even the term, ‘raised in Evangelical churches’, sends shivers down my spine and creates images in my mind of cloistered communities, closed to the outside world, who brainwash the little children from the get-go.

  29. How Rupert Murdoch is influencing Australia’s bushfire debate

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2020/01/09/rupert-murdoch-bushfire-debate/

    The idea that “greenies” or environmentalists would oppose measures to prevent fires from ravaging homes and lives is simply false. But the comment reflects a narrative that’s been promoted for months by conservative Australian media outlets, especially the influential newspapers and television stations owned by Rupert Murdoch.
    :::
    It’s all part of what critics see as a relentless effort led by the powerful media outlet to do what it has also done in the United States and Britain – shift blame to the left, protect conservative leaders and divert attention from climate change.

    “It’s really reckless and extremely harmful,” said Joëlle Gergis, an award-winning climate scientist at the Australian National University.“It’s insidious because it grows. Once you plant those seeds of doubt, it stops an important conversation from taking place.”
    :::
    Yet, for many critics, the Murdoch approach suddenly looks dangerous. They are increasingly connecting News Corp to the spread of misinformation and the government’s lacklustre response to the fires.
    :::
    But a search for “climate change” in the main Murdoch outlets mostly yields stories condemning protesters who demand more aggressive action from the government; editorials arguing against “radical climate change policy”; and opinion columns emphasising the need for more back-burning to control fires — if only the left-wing greenies would allow it to happen.
    :::
    It’s that echoing between officialdom and Murdoch media that has many people so concerned.
    :::
    But there are signs that the Murdoch message is making headway – at least in terms of what people make a priority.

  31. Pegasus @ #62 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 8:08 am

    Has Albanese debunked the myth “greenies” are responsible for the bushfires?

    yes

    Viral online claims that hazard reduction burns have been blocked are “not true”, Labor leader Anthony Albanese said, criticising conspiracy theorists laying blame for bushfires at the feet of environmental activists.

    https://10daily.com.au/news/politics/a200107jxpnc/anthony-albanese-lashes-bushfire-conspiracy-theories-spread-by-armchair-critics-20200107

  32. Danama Papers @ #70 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 9:17 am

    Confessions @ #20 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 5:06 am

    The never Trump group headed by Rick Wilson, Steve Schmidt and George Conway releases its first ad. This one targets evangelicals.

    https://youtu.be/yoglNFN5-Js

    If that advert has any effect at all, it will be the opposite of what it is intended to achieve.

    His evangelical supporters already know all that about him, and either don’t care or are in full support of him. Juxtapositioning his words with those of evangelical leaders was a bad move. I can see evengelicals being reinforced in their support for Trump because of their leader’s words and not be swayed at all by Trump’s. His words are all history now. They didn’t care about them in 2016, they won’t care about them in 2020.

    I expected better. A LOT better.

    It’s not targetted at you. It is targetted at US evangelicals to identify what is scripturally wrong with those trying to deify Trump and how the extreme rhetoric of so called Evangelical leaders is just partisan sophistry.

    If the ad gets some to question then it will have done it’s job in opening an alternative conversation.

  33. Boerwar says:
    Friday, January 10, 2020 at 7:54 am

    …”Another Foundation Member – Libya”…

    Nope, incorrect.

    Bush did not include Libya in his axis of evil rhetoric, that was Bolton a year or two later.

  35. Vogon Poet @ #81 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 9:30 am

    Pegasus @ #62 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 8:08 am

    Has Albanese debunked the myth “greenies” are responsible for the bushfires?

    yes

    Viral online claims that hazard reduction burns have been blocked are “not true”, Labor leader Anthony Albanese said, criticising conspiracy theorists laying blame for bushfires at the feet of environmental activists.

    https://10daily.com.au/news/politics/a200107jxpnc/anthony-albanese-lashes-bushfire-conspiracy-theories-spread-by-armchair-critics-20200107

    Pegasus should do her research better. 🙂

  36. guytaur

    I no longer watch 7.30, but came upon it accidentally in the night, and stayed just long enough to confirm my opinion about Scomo. He was definitely ill at ease when he first returned from Hawaii, but has settled comfortably into his own version of events now.

  39. lizzie

    Yes. In Hawaii its harder to be in the Murdoch bubble.

    The pressure is going to keep building. We have seen the first signs the media gallery is changing thanks to the international coverage.

    Thats not taking into account Australia and Bushfires are going to be part of the Democratic Debate now.
    Another crack in the Murdoch created bubble.
    The Greens being extreme will go away as more people wake up.

  40. lizzie @ #86 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 9:35 am

    guytaur

    I no longer watch 7.30, but came upon it accidentally in the night, and stayed just long enough to confirm my opinion about Scomo. He was definitely ill at ease when he first returned from Hawaii, but has settled comfortably into his own version of events now.

    An outcome some of us here in PBland fully expected.
    If that was the Michael Rowland interview – which I heard on radio – Scrotty was like a brick wall in the face of some uncharacteristically combative questioning.
    This will all work out according to Scrotty’s plan, hatched on the beaches of Hawaii.

  41. Confessions (always the innocent) and Cat trolling me as usual.

    I did not know if Albanese had called out the misinformation as I don’t watch or listen to commercial TV.

    Given no one else responded to my genuine question they hadn’t heard either.

    I asked the question as I was thinking about Labor’s strategy to distance itself from the Greens so was interested if he had said anything..

  42. Rick Wilson‏Verified account @TheRickWilson

    Just a note about the work from @ProjectLincoln:

    We’re just getting started.

  44. guytaur @ #87 Friday, January 10th, 2020 – 9:40 am

    lizzie

    Yes. In Hawaii its harder to be in the Murdoch bubble.

    The pressure is going to keep building. We have seen the first signs the media gallery is changing thanks to the international coverage.

    Thats not taking into account Australia and Bushfires are going to be part of the Democratic Debate now.
    Another crack in the Murdoch created bubble.
    The Greens being extreme will go away as more people wake up.

    ‘Thats not taking into account Australia and Bushfires are going to be part of the Democratic Debate now.’

    Some here never learn.

  45. lizzie says:
    Friday, January 10, 2020 at 9:18 am
    guytaur

    I don’t agree that Rowland gave Morrison an “easy ride” because he did argue back on several answers, but the PM has now perfected his gaslighting to a high standard.

    ______________________________

    Morrison pulled out the bulldozer roll over the interviewer technique. One day I’d like to see an interviewer say to Morrison that he will stop interrupting when Morrison answers the question asked not something different altogether.

  46. I didn’t think I was an education snob, but I’m prepared to change my mind. 😉

    Carrick Ryan
    @realCarrickRyan
    ·
    17h
    The qualifications of Australia’s most well known climate change deniers:

    Craig Kelly: Yr 12
    Rowan Dean: Yr 12
    Kerry-anne Kennerley: Yr 12
    Piers Ackerman: Yr 10
    Andrew Bolt: Yr 12
    Alan Jones: Arts Degree
    Prue Macsween: Dip in Advertising.

    Think about this.

  49. Pegasus

    In case you missed it. Alan Jones said similar to Albanese too.

    I count Jones contribution more important than Albanese because he was a leader in the defeat of Gillard and a creator of the Greens are extreme and the Labor party is in bed with the Greens narrative. The whole Bob Brown’s B***ch sign Abbott stood in front of.

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