Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019

Aggregated polling breakdowns from Newspoll offer never-before-seen detail on voting intention by income and education, together with state, gender and age.

Something new under the sun today from Newspoll, with The Australian ($) publishing the first set of aggregated breakdowns since the election. This would appear to be limited to the new-look poll that was launched last month, which has dropped its telephone component and is now conducted entirely online. Only two results have been published in that time, but there is evidently more behind this poll than that, as the survey period extends back to November 7 and the sample size of 4562 suggests three polling periods rather than two.

The results as published are of interest in providing never-before-seen breakdowns for education level (no tertiary, TAFE/technical or tertiary) and household income (up to $50,000, up to $100,000, up to $150,000, and beyond). Including the first of these as a weighting variable promises to address difficulties pollsters may have been having in over-representing those with good education and high levels of civic engagement. However, the poll gives with one hand and takes with the other, in that it limits the state breakdowns are limited to New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. And it falls well short of the promised new age of pollster transparency, providing no detail on how the various sub-categories have been weighted.

The state breakdowns suggest either that Labor has recovered slightly in Queensland since the election, or that polling is still struggling to hit the mark there. The Coalition is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 58.4-41.6 at the election. Their primary vote is 40%, down from 43.7%, with Labor up from 26.7% to 29%, One Nation up from 8.9% to 13%, and the Greens up from 10.3% to 12%. The Coalition lead in New South Wales is 51-49, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (42.5%), Labor 35% (34.6%) and Greens 10% (8.7%). Labor’s lead in Victoria is 53-47, barely different from the election result of 53.1-46.9, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (38.6%), Labor 38% (36.9%) and Greens 12% (11.9%).

Age breakdowns consist of four cohorts rather than the old three, and tell a globally familiar story of Labor dominating among the 18-to-34s with a lead of 57-43, while the 65-plus cohort goes 61-39 the other way. In between are a 50-50 from 35-49s and 51-49 to the Coalition among 50-64s. The primary votes are less radical than the recent findings of the Australian Election Study survey: the primary votes among the young cohort are Coalition 34%, Labor 35% and Greens 22%, compared with 37%, 23% and 28% respectively in the AES.

Reflecting polling in Britain, there is little distinction in the balance of major party support between the three education cohorts (UPDATE: actually not so – I was thinking of social class, education was associated with Labor support), contrary to the traditional expectation that the party of the working class would do best among those with no tertiary education. The Coalition instead leads 52-48 among both that cohort and the university-educated, with Labor leading 51-49 among those with TAFE or other technical qualifications. However, household income breakdowns are more in line with traditional expectation, with Labor leading 53-47 at the bottom end, the Coalition leading 51-49 in the lower-middle, and the Coalition leading 58-42 in both of the upper cohorts.

Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,114 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns: November-December 2019”

Comments Page 4 of 143
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  1. Quoll,
    As you seem to live in the same neck of the woods, you would be best advised directing your energies to unseating Barnaby Joyce. He’s a lot more of a threat to the nation than Labor will ever be.

  2. Section 51 of the Constitution
    Powers of the Parliament
    Sub clause
    II Taxation but so as not to discriminate between states or parts of states

  4. poroti @ #149 Thursday, December 26th, 2019 – 3:34 pm

    Quoll

    The ALP appears bought by coal and fossils fuel lobbyists.

    Nothing new, Marn Fersun was right on board back in the day and he would not have been Robinson Crusoe in running interference for the coalies back in the days of Rudd./Gillard

    I mean, it’s almost as if you are both blind to the fact that, Labor aren’t in government, and it’s Scott Morrison, who is in government, that has the former Minerals Council numero uno as his Chief of Staff. 😐

  5. CC

    I agree with what you write, but you have to sell it. You don’t sell it by telling people you are going to take their jobs which is what the Greens are about with their gas guzzler convoy.

    And you don’ t sell it be telling people global warming is rubbish as the Liberals are doing.

  6. CC
    And you don’t sell it with the nonsense poroti just posted. But that is par for the course, the Greens don’t actually want a solution. For the Greens climate change is nothing more than something to beat Labor up with.

  7. Not Sure
    Thanks for posting a video by Fighting Joe Bryant. I hadn’t heard of him for years and I guess he is now dead.
    He founded the extreme Right Independent EFF and to quote from Wikipedia:
    Independent EFF (Enterprise, Freedom, Family) was a minor Australian political party that was active between 1987 and 1999.[1] It was unsuccessful in electing candidates.

    The party was founded in 1987 by Blacktown Deputy Mayor Joe Bryant, and its positions included reducing workers’ compensation, instituting voluntary unionism, and the elimination of unemployment benefits and the flat tax. The party had links to far right groups such as the Australian League of Rights. Party leader Bryant would later resurface as a republican and supporter of Pauline Hanson.

    A great set of policies but it has left out his best; a constitutional amendment to fix the interest rate at 5%

    His background was as a small businessman who eventually left a trail of debt

  8. Rogin went on to say that Giuliani’s actions have done “nothing but confuse foreign countries and interject a lot of chaos” into global affairs.

    Pending a definitive ruling from Lizzie, I think this should be “inject a lot of chaos”:
    – one “interjects” into a conversation
    but:
    – here the thing “in(ter)jected” into is “global affairs”, not the same thing at all.
    I think this is an instance of that American phenomenon: an attempt to impress involving the use of a longer incorrect word when a shorter word is correct.

  10. ‘Quoll says:
    Thursday, December 26, 2019 at 3:29 pm

    The ALP appears bought by coal and fossils fuel lobbyists. That a Laborites partisan can try and joke about coaly roller without choking on their own hypocrisy in terms of Labor support for new coal and gas is indicative of how much BS some consider business as usual politics in Oz.

    Labor has nothing to suggest they would be any better on emissions.

    #matesong ad is getting plenty of we’re actually burning and cooking response from both UK and here.

    All the positivist BS in the world doesn’t seem to be settling anything’

    And your political plan is….?

  12. frednk

    So Marn was all aboard carbon pricing ? Pull the other one. Any way doesn’t matter , RI is right “we are fucked” , Coals in power and Labor looking, pretty underwhelming.

  15. frednk

    Why waste energy talking about the Greens? For all the energy expended here on the Labor vs Green thing, out in the real world what matters is Labor’s policies and how they sell them.

  17. Cud Chewer @ #163 Thursday, December 26th, 2019 – 4:02 pm

    frednk

    Why waste energy talking about the Greens? For all the energy expended here on the Labor vs Green thing, out in the real world what matters is Labor’s policies and how they sell them.

    Cud, it’s only because The Greens seem to have nowhere else to go and at least be taken half seriously. So, they come here all the time and antagonise Labor supporters and propound their extremely unsaleable positions. Plus ca change….. 😀


  18. Cud Chewer says:
    Thursday, December 26, 2019 at 4:02 pm

    frednk

    Why waste energy talking about the Greens? For all the energy expended here on the Labor vs Green thing, out in the real world what matters is Labor’s policies and how they sell them.

    Labor needs 50% of the vote; the Liberals peal it off to the right and the Greens to the left, at least the Liberals are honest in what they are doing, the Greens are the Liberals silent partner and do it with sanctimonious crap.

    Labors policy is met with the Goldelox response. To hot and too cold.

  20. Bushfire Bill:

    “A Sydney hospital” (which of course turns out to be the new, privately owned Northern Beaches Hospital) has been offering bonuses to admissions staff for converting public patients into private patients.

    One of the other things in that article (https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/sacked-hospital-employee-accused-of-forging-forms-to-boost-private-admissions-20191219-p53lej.html) is this:

    Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt has raised concerns about the growth in public hospitals’ private patient admissions with his state and territory counterparts, after private health insurers complained about the more than $1 billion-a-year cost and its impact on premium prices.

    Now I think the current status (though perhaps not the original status) of “Northern Beaches” is that it is a privately operated (and seemingly incompetently operated) but public owned hospital.

    What I would see is the little Hunt pursuing the financial interests of the ” private health insurers” as above and one should be aware of the sucker punch.

    I have encountered this “private in public” phenomenon in a Victorian specialist public hospital and have been more than willing to assist them in claiming as much as possible from my private health insurer! Note also that this made no difference to my treatment (I got a shared room for example) and simply meant the hospital got a few thousand dollar from my private health cover

  21. frednk @ #166 Thursday, December 26th, 2019 – 4:24 pm


    Cud Chewer says:
    Thursday, December 26, 2019 at 4:02 pm

    frednk

    Why waste energy talking about the Greens? For all the energy expended here on the Labor vs Green thing, out in the real world what matters is Labor’s policies and how they sell them.

    Labor needs 50% of the vote; the Liberals peal it of to the right and the Greens to the left, at least the Liberals are honest in what they are doing, the Greens are the Liberals silent partner and do it with sanctimonious crap.

    Labors policy is met with the Goldelox response. To hot and too cold.

    The Greens see the LibNats and Labor profiting from the society killing thermal coal/fossil fuel lobby and are prepared to call it out.

    Bad Greens.

  23. GG:

    The only thing worse than old fogeys is young fogeys.

    Middle aged fogeys – they are confirmed in their fogeyness and are likely to continue for a substantial time

  24. Lee Rhiannon on ‘Bill Ryan, Second World War Kokoda Trail veteran, arrested seven times at climate actions, dies at 97’

    https://leerhiannon.org.au/2019/12/24/bill-ryan-second-world-war-kokoda-trail-veteran-arrested-seven-times-at-climate-actions-dies-at-97/

    His life and work for climate action and social change is being widely celebrated amongst activists and climate justice circles and on social media.

    Over the past decade Bill had become well known for his courageous participation in a range of climate actions. He was arrested seven times at climate protests and coal industry blockades.

    When queried why he was willing to be arrested Bill’s reply was “I was willing to put my life on the line in the Second World War, so putting my body on the line for climate action is a small inconvenience.”

    His activism stretches back to the protests against the Vietnam War and Apartheid South Africa in the 1960s and 1970s.

    Bill worked for many years at the GPO in Martin Place as a postal worker. He was a committed union member. He was also a member of the Greens NSW. He said he joined the party because he supported its policies to make the world fair and just for all.

    Bill’s experiences of war in New Guinea lived with him all his life. He was a passionate supporter of non-violent action.

    Col Ryan, Bill’s son said, “I am immensely proud of my father. It was an honour to go to so many protests with him. Dad knew how urgent it was that we take action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We need to continue Dad’s work.”

    Former Greens Senator Lee Rhiannon said, “It is an enormous loss. Bill set a high standard for all of us. Just last Friday he was with the Knitting Nanas at a climate protest in Martin Place.”

    Greens MP David Shoebridge said, “Bill led a principled and inspiring life. We are celebrating the example he set throughout his life.”

  25. Pegasus @ #172 Thursday, December 26th, 2019 – 4:39 pm

    Lee Rhiannon on ‘Bill Ryan, Second World War Kokoda Trail veteran, arrested seven times at climate actions, dies at 97’

    https://leerhiannon.org.au/2019/12/24/bill-ryan-second-world-war-kokoda-trail-veteran-arrested-seven-times-at-climate-actions-dies-at-97/

    His life and work for climate action and social change is being widely celebrated amongst activists and climate justice circles and on social media.

    Over the past decade Bill had become well known for his courageous participation in a range of climate actions. He was arrested seven times at climate protests and coal industry blockades.

    When queried why he was willing to be arrested Bill’s reply was “I was willing to put my life on the line in the Second World War, so putting my body on the line for climate action is a small inconvenience.”

    His activism stretches back to the protests against the Vietnam War and Apartheid South Africa in the 1960s and 1970s.

    Bill worked for many years at the GPO in Martin Place as a postal worker. He was a committed union member. He was also a member of the Greens NSW. He said he joined the party because he supported its policies to make the world fair and just for all.

    Bill’s experiences of war in New Guinea lived with him all his life. He was a passionate supporter of non-violent action.

    Col Ryan, Bill’s son said, “I am immensely proud of my father. It was an honour to go to so many protests with him. Dad knew how urgent it was that we take action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We need to continue Dad’s work.”

    Former Greens Senator Lee Rhiannon said, “It is an enormous loss. Bill set a high standard for all of us. Just last Friday he was with the Knitting Nanas at a climate protest in Martin Place.”

    Greens MP David Shoebridge said, “Bill led a principled and inspiring life. We are celebrating the example he set throughout his life.”

    Bill was a secret Liberal spy working against Labor.

    #LaborTrumpism

  27. Bill was a member of the greens; one of the many who no longer has anything to say when it comes to Green policy. That comes preformed out of RDN’s office.

    The goal is to undermine Labor; policy?

  29. E. G. Theodore

    Please don’t think I’m an expert on anything. I just love words and language and like to use them effectively (which is why I always enjoy posts such as Bushfire’s, no matter what the subject). There are many excellent writers on PB.

    However, I luuurved this from you.

    I think this is an instance of that American phenomenon: an attempt to impress involving the use of a longer incorrect word when a shorter word is correct.

    Not always incorrect, perhaps, but examples abound. 🙂

  30. The surveillance state:

    Police using facial recognition cameras at Victoria’s busiest stations

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/cops-using-facial-recognition-cameras-at-victoria-s-busiest-stations-20191220-p53m0e.html

    Victoria Police is quietly using facial recognition technology to identify criminal suspects at 85 of the state’s busiest police stations.

    A month after body-worn cameras came under the spotlight, police figures reveal that another form of camera technology known as iFace has been rolled out at key stations.
    :::
    But secrecy surrounds the network, its use and how many times people have been mistakenly flagged as potential criminals. Facial recognition technology has proved significantly inaccurate in overseas jurisdictions.

    Victoria Police are also not forthcoming about any plans to expand facial recognition technology more broadly through other types of surveillance equipment.
    :::
    Overseas trials have highlighted privacy concerns, as well as large numbers of mismatches known as “false positives” and a higher tendency to mis-identify ethnic minorities and women.
    :::
    Debate over artificial intelligence and facial recognition reignited this week when Australia’s Human Rights Commission called for a moratorium on the use of some technologies until there is a legal framework to safeguard human rights.
    :::
    “Surveillance and tracking technology is susceptible to existing biases and prejudices,” said Anthony Kelly, who heads the Police Accountability Project at the Flemington Kensington Community Legal Centre.

    “It will inevitably be pointed towards and most impact those who are already targeted by police – the poor, the mentally ill and people who are politically active.”

    The erosion of civil and human rights flying under the radar….

  34. Human Rights and Technology: a discussion paper. December 2019:

    https://tech.humanrights.gov.au/sites/default/files/inline-files/TechRights2019_DiscussionPaper.pdf

    The great promise of new and emerging technologies is likely to be realised only if there is social trust in their development and use. That in turn requires innovation that is consultative, inclusive and accountable, with robust safeguards for human rights protection and promotion. This accords with Australia’s binding obligations under international human rights law to respect, protect and fulfil human rights across all areas of life.

  36. The Festive Season is turning into a problem in many families as a split in climate change attitudes is revealed. Not always funny, tho.

    Amy Remeikis @AmyRemeikis

    My dad just informed me he still doesn’t “believe” in climate change based on “a feeling” and Bolt and co are right, so I’m officially up for adoption if anyone is interested

  37. Biased and wrong? Facial recognition tech in the dock: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48842750

    Police and security forces around the world are testing out automated facial recognition systems as a way of identifying criminals and terrorists. But how accurate is the technology and how easily could it and the artificial intelligence (AI) it is powered by – become tools of oppression?

    Australian Human Rights Commission Seeking Tighter Rules For AI, Moratorium On Facial Recognition:
    https://which-50.com/australian-human-rights-commission-seeking-tighter-rules-for-ai-moratorium-on-facial-recognition/

    Why Australia’s peak human rights body is worried about artificial intelligence:
    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/why-australia-s-peak-human-rights-body-is-worried-about-artificial-intelligence

  38. BB
    Opposition to being paid is common among the CFA because they don’t see it as a job but see it a community service but that wouldn’t be universal.

    It IS a community service, but 7-8 months continuously on alert, sacrificing significant income, is stretching the friendship.

    RFS activities are obviously suitable for volunteers, under normal circumstances, but as someone said recently, “this is not normal”.

    The simple proposition is that if bushfires become a full time phenomenon, then fighting them should be treated the same way, including any compensation.

    What puzzled me about Shane Fitzsimmons’ position is that HE is the one who has been telling us they’re becoming permanent.

  39. Nothing wrong with Facial recognition as long as you realize false positives and negatives are the norm.

    Or in other words the people you want to detect go undetected and the people that you detect are most likely not the person you are trying to detect.


  40. Amy Remeikis @AmyRemeikis

    My dad just informed me he still doesn’t “believe” in climate change based on “a feeling” and Bolt and co are right, so I’m officially up for adoption if anyone is interested .

    The story is a little different ; it now starts my great granddad lived through this ………………
    To be fair accepting the property is no longer viable is a big step.

  41. lizzie @ #184 Thursday, December 26th, 2019 – 5:07 pm

    The Festive Season is turning into a problem in many families as a split in climate change attitudes is revealed. Not always funny, tho.

    Amy Remeikis @AmyRemeikis

    My dad just informed me he still doesn’t “believe” in climate change based on “a feeling” and Bolt and co are right, so I’m officially up for adoption if anyone is interested

    My father, who also watches Sky and reliably votes Liberal, informed me that CO2 is ‘natural’. Plants absorb it. End of for him.

    I replied, ‘Arsenic is ‘natural’ too.’

  43. “My father, who also watches Sky and reliably votes Liberal, informed me that CO2 is ‘natural’. Plants absorb it. End of for him.”

    Water is natural and it’s essential to all life. It is absorbed by plants, animals, the soil and rocks. It is evaporated by the Sun. This doesn’t mean that floods aren’t a problem, or that people don’t drown in the stuff.

  44. C@t

    It can’t be just a simple generational split, or I’d be a ‘non-believer’ and surely it’s not a lefty-righty thing, although the question was posed a few days ago, “When did science become left-wing?” Rather silly, IMO.

  45. B.B. @5.24 pm:

    I have been wondering whether Fitzsimmons is concerned (or has been told) that any compensation/payment to the volunteers would have to come out of his present budget, and so fears he might be left with nothing much for equipment etc. hence the continued emphasis on volunteering. Morrison seems not likely to offer anything because we keep getting told that firefighting , SES etc. is the responsibility of the states

  46. “The [EFF] party was founded in 1987 by Blacktown Deputy Mayor Joe Bryant, and its positions included reducing workers’ compensation, instituting voluntary unionism, and the elimination of unemployment benefits and the flat tax. “

    So basically, they said aloud what the Liberals were thinking.

  48. Spence says:
    Thursday, December 26, 2019 at 5:52 pm

    80,000 at MCG with no Victorians in the team.
    __________________
    Bill Lawry will be both pleased and enraged.

  49. CC @4:50 “9 adults, 2 toddlers, 3 dogs and a bowl of Jaffas…”

    Keep the dogs away from the Jaffas. Chocolate’s very bad for them.

  50. ‘Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, December 26, 2019 at 4:26 pm

    Why is the Christian lobby turning on Donald ?

    Has Pence promised them something in return ?

    Scary to think about.’

    What a pity Nader and the Greens aren’t around to fix it in 2020. Again.

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