Something new under the sun today from Newspoll, with The Australian ($) publishing the first set of aggregated breakdowns since the election. This would appear to be limited to the new-look poll that was launched last month, which has dropped its telephone component and is now conducted entirely online. Only two results have been published in that time, but there is evidently more behind this poll than that, as the survey period extends back to November 7 and the sample size of 4562 suggests three polling periods rather than two.
The results as published are of interest in providing never-before-seen breakdowns for education level (no tertiary, TAFE/technical or tertiary) and household income (up to $50,000, up to $100,000, up to $150,000, and beyond). Including the first of these as a weighting variable promises to address difficulties pollsters may have been having in over-representing those with good education and high levels of civic engagement. However, the poll gives with one hand and takes with the other, in that it limits the state breakdowns are limited to New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. And it falls well short of the promised new age of pollster transparency, providing no detail on how the various sub-categories have been weighted.
The state breakdowns suggest either that Labor has recovered slightly in Queensland since the election, or that polling is still struggling to hit the mark there. The Coalition is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 58.4-41.6 at the election. Their primary vote is 40%, down from 43.7%, with Labor up from 26.7% to 29%, One Nation up from 8.9% to 13%, and the Greens up from 10.3% to 12%. The Coalition lead in New South Wales is 51-49, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (42.5%), Labor 35% (34.6%) and Greens 10% (8.7%). Labor’s lead in Victoria is 53-47, barely different from the election result of 53.1-46.9, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (38.6%), Labor 38% (36.9%) and Greens 12% (11.9%).
Age breakdowns consist of four cohorts rather than the old three, and tell a globally familiar story of Labor dominating among the 18-to-34s with a lead of 57-43, while the 65-plus cohort goes 61-39 the other way. In between are a 50-50 from 35-49s and 51-49 to the Coalition among 50-64s. The primary votes are less radical than the recent findings of the Australian Election Study survey: the primary votes among the young cohort are Coalition 34%, Labor 35% and Greens 22%, compared with 37%, 23% and 28% respectively in the AES.
Reflecting polling in Britain, there is little distinction in the balance of major party support between the three education cohorts (UPDATE: actually not so – I was thinking of social class, education was associated with Labor support), contrary to the traditional expectation that the party of the working class would do best among those with no tertiary education. The Coalition instead leads 52-48 among both that cohort and the university-educated, with Labor leading 51-49 among those with TAFE or other technical qualifications. However, household income breakdowns are more in line with traditional expectation, with Labor leading 53-47 at the bottom end, the Coalition leading 51-49 in the lower-middle, and the Coalition leading 58-42 in both of the upper cohorts.
Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).
I had a very bad accountant.
The accountant structured my finances in such a way that I allegedly owed the ATO much more than I should have in one particular year than I otherwise would if I had engaged the services of a competent person.
I then hired a competent accountant, who amended several of my, and my wife’s tax returns so that the amount we collectively owed was below the amount that ATO has unlawfully decided it is entitled to charge interest on.
(Turns out the ATO has no constitutional authority to apply a penalty to a debt, and nor does the Department of Human Services)
They still charge interest at the end of every month, but they remit all of that interest back at the start of the following month.
We as citizens own the government and its bureaucracy.
They seem to have convinced themselves that this works the other way around.
They are wrong, and a day shall come that they will be shown to be wrong.
Steve777 says:
Thursday, December 26, 2019 at 12:25 pm
…”Kevin is right”…
Kevin is always right.
His ousting is probably the most idiotic act of bastardry ever to have occurred in this country.
Up to and including the dismissal of Whitlam.
How many fonts can you put in 1 poster?
The 2 most dreaded words in the English language….. RAIL BUS!
If the Priminstership of Abbott was not enough to convince people that Gillard was a political dunce, and Turnbull and Morrison haven’t managed to get it into their thick skulls, will Peter Dutton suffice?
God help us.
The stinginess, secretiveness, and downright nastiness of the Morrison Government is its Achilles’ heel, and which will accordingly see it suffer in the polls this year, particularly in the personal indicia of Dear Leader. He professes to be deeply religious but shows little signs of what’s taught in the Scriptures, though he does love his neighbour, Brian Houston, where he, via the responsible minister (Dutton), approved a grant of $110k to his second favourite church, Hillsong, which is on the bones of its arse – not! And I guess Horizon will be similarly endowed when & if it’s judged politically safe to do so.
As gauged by social media and other sources, Morrison’s gradually being viewed as the con artist he is, even though he’s still regarded as an almost Holy Relic by most of the obsequious employees of Rupert Murdoch, the worst of whom are to be found at Sky News after dark. The Fourth Estate is crucial to a well-functioning democracy but unlike other Western liberal democracies, the media in Oz is predominantly owned and controlled by one mogul, who has rarely given the centre-Left a fair go.
The most significant issue of our time is global heating; Morrison’s carriage of it has thus far has been abysmal and if, as is predicted, the drought and bush fires worsen, he’ll be in more political trouble than was, for instance, Neville Chamberlian. Then there’s the economy to deal with, where most of the markers have flatlined or got worse. I wish Mr. Morrison & his senior colleagues a very happy New Year.
Mr Rudd was our saviour.
An unalligned and ethical socialist, sent by whichever Messiah you care to believe in, to rescue us from the deprivations of conservatism.
He was our salvation.
But he was stoned to death by the party of the workers.
And now we are enslaved, under the yolk, in Morristan.
That tourism ad is just cringeworthy.
The recent comment by Mavis fits in nicely with the sentiments in this Guardian article.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/25/an-end-to-morrisons-mean-spiritedness-is-the-christmas-gift-australia-needs
Not Sure:
[‘…will Peter Dutton suffice?
God help us.’]
Yes, Dutton will suffice very nicely. If he were to topple Morrison, this will ensure the end of the Tories for the foreseeable future. They have been rumours in the Twittersphere that Dutton’s been attending smiling school. But being a bit of a plodder, he’s apparently not doing too well.
” I wish Mr. Morrison & his senior colleagues a very happy New Year.”
In particular, that they get the chance “to spend more time with their families”…
laughtong:
Thanks for the link. I guess the question is whether we’ll ever see such articles in the Murdoch media?
poroti
That image looks like what is sort of known as the rangelands. In this case the red sand the red sandstone ranges sort of point to the drier end of the rangelands.
The state of the veg indicates to me that introduced herbivores are giving the veg a flogging.
Central Australia has long had the sort of temperatures now being reported for forested koala country.
What happens is that when it rains cattle are moved in. When it goes to drought, cattle are moved out.
Temperature has not been the limiting factor in that country for the past century. Rainfall has.
I can well imagine that cattle sourced from Europe are running into trouble with over-heated gonads.
I doubt that the more heat-resistant desert cattle – often crossed with hot-country Indian varieties like Brahmins – are going to run into the same trouble.
I doubt whether they road tested the ad concepts they put together a bunch of Bludgers!
After all, they actually want to be positive, free and easy, sunny, happy and enjoying themselves!
Will the prairie oyster industry survive global warming?
WARNING, not for the faint-hearted.
https://www.shutterstock.com/search/bull+testicles
The Labor Party had the golden prize, and thought they could wield it for as long as they wished.
They ignored the wisdom of Whitlam and Keating, and brung low a latter day hero.
This error will reverberate for decades, if not a century.
Mavis says:
Thursday, December 26, 2019 at 1:26 pm
…”Yes, Dutton will suffice very nicely. If he were to topple Morrison, this will ensure the end of the Tories for the foreseeable future”…
That isn’t how stuff works.
Season’s Greetings to All
It is a quiet Christmas in the Dragon’s Lair. I am reliving memories rather than making them this year. It is a nice thing, in its own way.
May everyone have a good Christmas Season, and a Happy New Year.
Puffy.
The RGR war vampire has risen again. Steak through the heart (or stake if you want to be violent).
But please shut the fuck up.
TPOF says:
Thursday, December 26, 2019 at 1:50 pm
…”Steak through the heart”…
I like mine medium.
Mavis
Dutton would be YUGE in the Shoutback Radio-Rupert Rags demographic. They’d OD on the quantity of Laura Norda and sticking it up immigrants/asylum seekers that Dutton would offer.
Steve777:
[‘In particular, that they get the chance “to spend more time with their families”]
“Hope burns eternal…”.
kirky @ #107 Thursday, December 26th, 2019 – 10:21 am
It was mildly embarrassing right up to the point when they rhymed shocker with quokka. That was the straw that broke the camel’s back. I could watch no more after that.
Yep that ad will make people forget all about what they have been seeing and hearing on the news 🙂
.
poroti:
[‘Dutton would be YUGE in the Shoutback Radio-Rupert Rags demographic. They’d OD on the quantity of Laura Norda and sticking it up immigrants/asylum seekers that Dutton would offer.’]
That may be the case. But surely we’re already at the point where we can’t go any lower? And, although I don’t think there are any real plans afoot to replace Morrison with Plod, talk of a leadership spill makes an incumbent very nervy, and nervous prime ministers do silly things. I think Dutton’s still really pissed with Morrison for coming through the centre of the last spill.
Mavis
I’d find it hard to believe there would be any plans to replace him.However if shit hits fan then a Dutton could be the go to guy for Rupert. just the person for a Rupert special campaign of Laura Norda. I’m quite confident we can go a lot lower than we have already gone.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/political-stunt-federal-government-launches-bushfire-inquiry-to-probe-state-policy-20191223-p53mh3.html
This kind of bullshit really annoys me.
Coalition denialatii are going to appear to be doing something by jumping on the “burn it all before the bushfires” bandwagon.
Then, use that as an excuse to avoid any mention of climate change or the other issues arising this summer. “Dont need and RC because we are already having an inquiry” “How Good is THAT!!”
Coalition are desperate for a simple message to punters. “its not our fault or anything to do with climate….its ALL down to prescribed burning being blocked by…(insert any thing other than RWNJ’s here).”
Their “cover” is announcing this in the middle of the event and over xmas. FFS this lot are complete and utter slime who are right now playing the politics.
“That tourism ad is just cringeworthy.”
It has Kylie in short shorts though.
I wonder which LNP-connected advertising firm sold the idea to the gov.
Mavis says:
Thursday, December 26, 2019 at 2:14 pm
poroti:
…”That may be the case. But surely we’re already at the point where we can’t go any lower?”…
We could live in a dictatorship.
Legislation has already savagely curtailed your constitutional and human rights.
You are from Queensland?
It is the only state in this country where you can still legally tell a police officer to piss off if he commands you to identify yourself in public without reasonable suspicion of committing a criminal act.
It is the only state where non-violent resistance of arrest is not a criminal offense in of itself.
Our state LABOR government has just curtailed your common law and constitutional rights by legislating against free assembly.
They have jumped on a populist bandwagon to do so and I won’t be voting for them.
We are better off with the fucking Gestapo teaching people a short sharp lesson in what happens when they vote for nazis.
Danama Papers
It was mildly embarrassing right up to the point when they rhymed shocker with quokka.
Indeed, as any Sandgroper can tell you Quokka goes with soccer 🙂
You think railbus is awful?
Autobus in the French Alps is a gut churning adventure as driver flings long bus round tight roundabouts in a desperate attempt to keep to the rail timetable disappointing all passengers who miss their connecting train into Geneva for work
French passengers don’t actually snarl but make it very clear to the bus driver that she failed
poroti:
[‘Yep that ad will make people forget all about what they have been seeing and hearing on the news ‘]
Wow, those are graphic pics. I can’t recall where I saw it but a bar graph was published recently (may’ve been the Guardian) that showed that the bush fires of the early ’70s were slightly worse than the current ones, with the proviso that the earlier fires mostly occurred in the outback, without much damage to person or property. Morrison dismisses the current fires by saying that Australia has always had bush fires, attempting to downgrade the current crisis. He may end up eating humble pie.
rhwombat @ #68 Thursday, December 26th, 2019 – 10:44 am
Jeez, if I can do it, where the bloody hell are our satirists and comedians to do it!?!
When Labor are in power federally, you have every comedian and his dog taking potshots at them. Now that the Coalition are in power the guns that they trained on Labor have fallen silent.
Beemer @8:25
The answer isn’t capitulation to ignorance and fear.
Labor didn’t just lose because retirees changed their vote (think about it). Labor didn’t just lose because it sat on the fence about the Galilee basin (lets face it, we’re still dealing with a minority of voters affected). Labor lost in all those outer metropolitan seats because people were scared of Labor taxing people to death.
Chris Bowen’s plan to convince everyone that Labor would be better economic managers “we’ll have a bigger surplus” resonated with no-one. It would have been far better for Labor to take advantage of its revenue raising measures by offering to spend. This plays to what people already believe. That Labor didn’t have any major (and more importantly new) big spending policies was a big mistake.
Labor didn’t need to go oh yes we love coal. Labor should have had policies to create new industries. Labor introduced its tax changes (bravely, and I think correctly) years ahead. But then Labor should have also had its big picture industry policies launched years ahead and constantly sold. Instead because they had nothing of the sort, they were left to defend their tax changes.
I had felt that Labor was keeping some big spending policies (new industries, fix the NBN, maybe high speed rail, etc) for the election. So that when the election came and there was no such thing it really started to worry me. Instead of making a splash with big-spending stuff that captures people’s imagination they were left to defend their tax policies.
Also, Labor (and in this I finger Chris Bowen) were stupid enough to bring out carefully crafted, nuanced tax changes. What they should have done (for instance) is simply said your franking credit cheque is capped at $20K (or something). Simple, easy to understand. Heck Labor could have capped it at $100K and been able to nominate a very specific number of people affected. With the full intention of gradually lowering the cap later on (yes, its politics).
Beemer, the answer isn’t giving into ignorance, greed and fear. The answer is Labor needs to be far more professional both in terms of policy development and policy selling. It also needs to help those in the community who aren’t lizard-brained to reach out to the “quiet Australians” and educate them. In other words, create an organisation backbone and provide some resources to people who want to engage with other people on the street and bring them back into civilisation. Labor also needs a properly thought out counter-Murdoch strategy. But that’s another story.
sprocket
Those express buses Wollongong to Central would easily outperform the train.
They should be kept as a permanent feature (with a stop at Sutherland).
Not Sure:
[‘We could live in a dictatorship.’]
That we could. Lucky for us that we have a relatively independent judiciary and a free press, though it’s owned by a few and who push a right-wing agenda. An independent judiciary and a free press are the principal bastions against an authoritarian government, like the one we have in Canberra. I think we’re very far off from becoming a fascist state. Anyway, I enjoyed the chat but must away for a while.
Despite the likes of Trump, Morrison, Murdoch and other despots, 2019 has seen a number of young activists determined to bring about beneficial change.
This CNN article highlights five people in Asia. There are surely many more like-minded young and not so young people out there, often struggling in difficult political, economic and religious circumstances.
TPOF
Speaking of the RGR war. What bugs me is that its become a Rudd vs Gillard thing where all the focus is on the personalities and moral attributes of those two people. There are things I liked about both, but that’s not the point.
The thing that really pisses me is the malfeasance of certain people who acted to unseat Rudd, not because this would be better for the country, or even for Labor’s ratings – but for far uglier motives.
We shouldn’t forget that. Too many people, including a lot of Labor Party people think its all about the leader. That its all about personality. In reality, good policy and professional salesmanship not just by the leader but by the entire organisation is what counts.
Cud Chewer @ #134 Thursday, December 26th, 2019 – 2:45 pm
And, sad to say, because I love your work, Cud, that you are essentially wrong in your analysis and prescription there.
The first instance where you go off the rails is when you state:
Labor should have had policies to create new industries… But then Labor should have also had its big picture industry policies launched years ahead and constantly sold. Instead because they had nothing of the sort, they were left to defend their tax changes.
I had felt that Labor was keeping some big spending policies (new industries, fix the NBN, maybe high speed rail, etc) for the election. So that when the election came and there was no such thing it really started to worry me. Instead of making a splash with big-spending stuff that captures people’s imagination they were left to defend their tax policies.
Labor DID announce plenty of industry policy. And you can’t get bigger, in this day and age, than announcing the creation of the Hydrogen industry in Australia, which was to be placed in Gladstone, I think it was, and which could have supplied this emerging product to the Asian market and likely elsewhere.
Not only that but Labor wanted to vertically integrate our Rare Earths industry all the way from mining to refining to manufacturing and installing big batteries and little ones too, similar to Jay Wetherill’s SA project with Tesla and the guy in Port Augusta that bought Arrium.
Not only that but Labor had a policy to rejuvenate TAFE so that it could train our young people who didn’t want to go to Uni for the jobs that would flow from the Energy Revolution.
Yes, some jobs wouldn’t pay as much as Coal Mining, however Labor has made it clear since the election that they are not for killing the Coal Mining industry either, especially wrt Metallurgical Coal, but rather, supportive of letting the market work to determine the future of Thermal Coal mining, which appears to be going ahead at a reasonably fast-paced clip.
So, they don’t have to say they love coal, they just need to let people know that they don’t hate it and don’t want to kill it off either, like The Greens.
It’s a nuanced story, but one which they need to tell. Also, they probably need to tell their industry story better as well because even you hadn’t heard it.
Visceral hatred of fascism is necessary to the functioning of a democracy, intelligent people have known this for millennia.
The enemy is at our gates.
Fail your country at great peril.
Mavis says:
Thursday, December 26, 2019 at 2:54 pm
…”That we could. Lucky for us that we have a relatively independent judiciary and a free press”…
Are you kidding???
The judiciary behaves as though it were an arm of government, and we have the most corrupted fourth estate on the planet.
C@t I’m not knocking some of the very real and good policies Labor did have.
But its a matter of scale. For me their hydrogen policy was a step in the right direction but underfunded. To make a difference you need commitments that go into the tens of billions range. There is also the question of Labor daring to co-invest at scale. Now I know that they did create ARENA and it was successful. What I’m saying is that they should have built on that concept and offered a lot more of the same.
I’m deadly serious about renewing the steel industry for instance. That requires a massive co-investment or underwriting (however you want to see it).
Labor could have offered to fix the NBN. Yes a hard sell given the price tag (tens of billions) but if taken to the voters early and given time for the narrative to build, it would have been a plus.
I did like the plan to subsidise (to some extent) domestic batteries. But what was missing was the plan to spend (or co-invest) billions in pumped hydro schemes. Stuff that actually inspires people.
And if I’m not mistaken, there are opportunities in Central Queensland.
Oh and if we are going to talk about giving small regional communities high value jobs that aren’t coal mining, we need a government that directly invests in things like defence hardware – not just importing software from the yanks but actually developing our own stuff, like drones. Stuff that if the government is directly in charge can easily be set up in regional cities.
So yeah, I’m not dissing the good policies Labor had. But it simply wasn’t big enough and it wasn’t ambitious enough or daring enough to capture the public imagination and worse, much of it was left to the last minute when Labor should have been selling nation building policies 2 years before the election (and they just weren’t).
Uhoh! Its the relatives!
Alan Moir really has hit a purple patch with the election of the Morrison government:
The constitution permits the federal government to make laws for peace, order and good governance.
It does not stipulate a right to the collection of taxes, or penalty for failure to comply with an order to pay taxation.
STOP PAYING TAX!!!
The ALP appears bought by coal and fossils fuel lobbyists. That a Laborites partisan can try and joke about coaly roller without choking on their own hypocrisy in terms of Labor support for new coal and gas is indicative of how much BS some consider business as usual politics in Oz.
Labor has nothing to suggest they would be any better on emissions.
#matesong ad is getting plenty of we’re actually burning and cooking response from both UK and here.
All the positivist BS in the world doesn’t seem to be settling anything.
Not Sure
We have Murdoch,no country with that pestilence does well.
STOP PAYING TAX!!!
START STARVING NOW!
It’s called the GSTAX and it’s embedded in just about everything we buy to sustain ourselves. So, no, I think I’ll keep paying it, thanks for asking. 😐
Quoll
Nothing new, Marn Fersun was right on board back in the day and he would not have been Robinson Crusoe in running interference for the coalies back in the days of Rudd./Gillard