Something new under the sun today from Newspoll, with The Australian ($) publishing the first set of aggregated breakdowns since the election. This would appear to be limited to the new-look poll that was launched last month, which has dropped its telephone component and is now conducted entirely online. Only two results have been published in that time, but there is evidently more behind this poll than that, as the survey period extends back to November 7 and the sample size of 4562 suggests three polling periods rather than two.
The results as published are of interest in providing never-before-seen breakdowns for education level (no tertiary, TAFE/technical or tertiary) and household income (up to $50,000, up to $100,000, up to $150,000, and beyond). Including the first of these as a weighting variable promises to address difficulties pollsters may have been having in over-representing those with good education and high levels of civic engagement. However, the poll gives with one hand and takes with the other, in that it limits the state breakdowns are limited to New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. And it falls well short of the promised new age of pollster transparency, providing no detail on how the various sub-categories have been weighted.
The state breakdowns suggest either that Labor has recovered slightly in Queensland since the election, or that polling is still struggling to hit the mark there. The Coalition is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 58.4-41.6 at the election. Their primary vote is 40%, down from 43.7%, with Labor up from 26.7% to 29%, One Nation up from 8.9% to 13%, and the Greens up from 10.3% to 12%. The Coalition lead in New South Wales is 51-49, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (42.5%), Labor 35% (34.6%) and Greens 10% (8.7%). Labor’s lead in Victoria is 53-47, barely different from the election result of 53.1-46.9, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (38.6%), Labor 38% (36.9%) and Greens 12% (11.9%).
Age breakdowns consist of four cohorts rather than the old three, and tell a globally familiar story of Labor dominating among the 18-to-34s with a lead of 57-43, while the 65-plus cohort goes 61-39 the other way. In between are a 50-50 from 35-49s and 51-49 to the Coalition among 50-64s. The primary votes are less radical than the recent findings of the Australian Election Study survey: the primary votes among the young cohort are Coalition 34%, Labor 35% and Greens 22%, compared with 37%, 23% and 28% respectively in the AES.
Reflecting polling in Britain, there is little distinction in the balance of major party support between the three education cohorts (UPDATE: actually not so – I was thinking of social class, education was associated with Labor support), contrary to the traditional expectation that the party of the working class would do best among those with no tertiary education. The Coalition instead leads 52-48 among both that cohort and the university-educated, with Labor leading 51-49 among those with TAFE or other technical qualifications. However, household income breakdowns are more in line with traditional expectation, with Labor leading 53-47 at the bottom end, the Coalition leading 51-49 in the lower-middle, and the Coalition leading 58-42 in both of the upper cohorts.
Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).
Astrobleme:
No-one is asserting that “anything Australia can do is irrelevant.”
People are instead asserting some specific points about one specific proposed supply side measure (SAGAGEDP – “Stopping Adani” at the Galilee source by an Australian government exercising an eminent domain or similar power), namely that:
a – this proposal (SAGAGEDP) won’t work if implemented in isolation. Won’t work is here defined as reducing the amount of coal burned, and
b – this proposal (SAGAGEDP) is not costless; it is therefore undesirable to implement it solely for the benefit of making people feel better, and
c – there is a risk that this proposal (SAGAGEDP) increases the amount of coal burned, this producing an effect contrary to its supposed goal
No-one here is saying that Australia / Australians can do nothing at all about thermal coal, instead there have been a plethora of proposals for measures (by Australia / Australians) that:
a – Stop the burning of coal (currently to be sourced from Adani Galilee) at the point where it can actually be stopped, namely in India;
b – Supersede the burning of coal in the nations that are currently predicted to increase demand volumes, through the provision of alternative electricity supply;
c – Reduce Australian demand for coal burning (including demand embedded in products imported into Australia).
Bert @ #5951 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 7:53 pm
It’s working OK here, but I did have problems initially, similar to your symptoms. If it helps I had closed down Brave (based on chromium) and restarted it a couple/three times, doing other things, and came back to PB and lo, it worked!
Steven – why do this? The Stuart Hwy was paved from 1942 and I understand the Northern Railway was always a shambles
Confessions @ #5999 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 9:48 pm
fess,
There are people who will die tomorrow.
I’m astounded that you are complicit in this political fix.
This is all about spreading the blame so no individual will be held accountablell
Watch how it unfolds.
Late Riser @ #5275 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 9:51 pm
Subsequent to my previous post. Both Firefox and Chrome using C+ are very, very slow to load – get there eventually.
I think Player One may be right.
New thread please William 🙏
Player One:
[‘Yes. I think the problem may be that this thread is just getting too lon’]
Can it ever be too long? When that happens: log out; long in – works for me a treat for me, a minor problem. I don’t know if you contribute to Fairfax, but compared to this site, we have so much leeway
Confessions @ #5975 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 8:15 pm
Timezones? It’s still this morning over there?
GG
God alone knows what that means
KayJay @ #6008 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 8:55 pm
I have 8G of RAM on this machine. Could that be why it’s still working for me?
I have 16gb ram on the machine I’m using an I’m having problems.
poroti @ #5982 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 9:21 pm
We’ll see how powerful the Clubs, Pubs and Gambling Industry is in NSW. Elliott is their man on the inside.
GG:
I really hope more people don’t die tomorrow!
But yes we’ll see how this tragedy unfolds over the coming days.
Late Riser @ #6009 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 9:57 pm
Please don’t mistake me for an expert. I just try this, that and whatever might work.
I have 16G of RAM and a reasonably fast I7 machine.
Luck of the draw. Help William. Please.
Oakeshott Country @ #6004 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 9:50 pm
Such simplistic analysis.
For your delectation.
————————————————-
The summer Scott Morrison’s leadership broke
FRANK BONGIORNO
…………………………Like Tony Abbott’s prime ministership, Morrison’s has been a remarkable exercise in self-indulgence, although mainly of a different kind. Abbott burned capital on rubbish such as a knighthood for Prince Philip, culture wars over the Racial Discrimination Act, and broken election promises that no Senate controlled by such a cross bench was ever going to pass.
Morrison’s self-indulgence has been of a different order. ………………..There is, after all, little shame in politics as it is done in this country these days. Morrison has already revealed himself as a remarkably adaptable politician and, given his powerful media allies, it might not be beyond his resources to restore sufficient credibility to get his leadership back into some kind of working order. But as we have seen repeatedly in recent years, when you’re on the slide, old friends tend to find new friends without taking too many backward glances.
https://insidestory.org.au/the-summer-that-scott-morrisons-leadership-broke/
EG Theodore
“but here the debates seems wholly to be about whether Adani Galilee (one currently non-extant mine in Australia) not supplying coal would impact coal prices.”
we weren’t just talking bout Adani. I know it’s the focus of attention, but this was about australia continuing to export the coal it is currently mining.
“No-one is asserting that “anything Australia can do is irrelevant.””
Boerwar was, which was why we were arguing.
“No-one here is saying that Australia / Australians can do nothing at all about thermal coal”
Boerwar was, again it’s why we were arguing as it’s a stupid position.
I agree there’s a lot more that can be done, and Boerwar and I agreed on every other point essentially. He was using the ‘makes no difference’ line to support Aussie coal mining.
Thanks for your thoughts.
Warning!!! Nath-alert.
“A Shorten Labor Government will boost Australia’s firefighting capabilities with a national fleet of aircraft and dedicated smokejumper units to keep Australians safe from bushfires.
All Australians understand the devastating impact that bushfires have. Lives are lost, homes destroyed and communities shattered.
Our firefighters and emergency services personnel are among the best in the world, and they do a tremendous job, often putting their own lives at risk. But they need more support from government.
At the moment, Australia doesn’t have a government-owned fleet of water bombing aircraft – making us reliant on borrowing from private companies domestically and from overseas.
The bushfire season in Australia is lengthening and already overlapping with the northern hemisphere, increasing the risk that we won’t be able to access the aircraft we need at times of peril.
At the same time, the Federal Government’s contribution to the National Aerial Firefighting Centre has plummeted from 50 per cent of funding to just 23 per cent, reducing our overall firefighting capability.
The Bureau of Meteorology has identified this summer as Australia’s hottest on record, which included devastating bushfires in Victoria and Tasmania. Now is the time to invest in giving our firefighters the resources they need to keep us all safe.
Labor’s national firefighting package will deliver:
$80 million to establish the National Aerial Bushfire Fighting Fleet of aircraft
This fleet will provide standing aerial firefighting capacity that can be used on demand in emergencies.
It will include retro-fitted Black Hawk helicopters as they are phased out from active use by the Australian Army and Erickson S-64 Air-crane helicopters (or ‘Elvis’ as they are commonly known) which has a 2,650 gallon tank capable of snorkelling or scooping fresh or salt water.
It’s expected that the national fleet will include a standing capability of up to six Large or Very Large Air Tankers, and up to 12 heavy rotary wing helicopters.
The benefits of aerial firefighting are clear. Aircrafts offer speed, access and observation advantages over ground crews. Containment is more effective and the final fire burned area minimised using aerial capability, thereby reducing demand on ground crews.
Australia’s first ‘smokejumper’ units
Smokejumpers are firefighters trained to be rapidly deployed by helicopters at remote fires during the short window during which those fires can be contained.
Smokejumpers usually rappel from helicopters and use chain-saws, hoes and other dry firefighting tools to establish a containment perimeter around the fire. They then patrol the perimeter to ensure the fire does not jump containment lines while working with water-bombing aircraft to ensure the contained fire is fully extinguished.
California and other US states currently have a number of smokejumper units which have proven successful.
As part of the $80 million commitment to establish a fleet, Labor will work with the states and territories to establish smokejumper units across the country.
$21 million for the National Aerial Firefighting Centre (NAFC)
A Shorten Labor Government will stop the Federal Government’s reduction in funding for our firefighting capabilities by returning to a 50-50 funding split between the states and territories and the Commonwealth.
Labor’s investment will ease the burden on state and territory governments, develop new national programs including a national risk management model, and national research and development programs including trials of new aircraft and night firefighting activities.
Labor can pay for new firefighting aircraft the smokejumper units because we are making multinationals pay their fair share and closing tax loopholes for the top end of town. ”
Labor Party news release March, 2019
C@t
Oh, well I guess his job is pretty secure. 🙁
beguiledagain
says:
Friday, January 3, 2020 at 10:05 pm
Warning!!! Nath-alert.
“A Shorten Labor Government will boost Australia’s firefighting capabilities with a national fleet of aircraft and dedicated smokejumper units to keep Australians safe from bushfires.
_______________________
no one likes a smart arse.
OC,
The problem with Berejiklian was that she was nowhere to be seen when the Grose Valley, Ruined Castle and Gospers Mountain fires were threatening homes in Sydney coming up to Christmas, and we were blanketed in smoke. Instead she seemed to be helping Scott Morrison maintain the “this is business as usual” mantra. This included not letting the RFS give briefings from headquarters on Homebush / Flemington until after Morrison returned from Hawaii.
It felt incredibly political as a veteran of Blue Mountains bush fires. She is improving PR wise, but information on the Grose valley fire has been particularly hard to get. We (multiple cars of family) drove to Katoomba from the city last Friday, and returned last Sunday, via Great Western Highway both times as Bell’s line of road closed. We could see heavy smoke and distant flames – some due to back burning I suspect – but more information would have helped.
Also, it looks as though tomorrow the Grose Valley file will roar down to the Nepean Hawkesbury river system, as it always eventually does (
), but there are no warnings for Winmalee or Mt Riverview, or Yarramundi, who will definitely be close to the path of the fire.
Perhaps there are local warnings. Next stop is to talk to my friends there on Facebook.
Also, the Age seem to think Andrews has done OK: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/andrews-has-spent-years-preparing-for-this-crisis-and-it-shows-20200103-p53onk.html
It’s macabre to be keeping some kind of states’ death watch, but I thought there had been more deaths in NSW at this point.
beguiledagain:
Yours is really a long post at this time of night, though I concur mostly. Best to keep it short & sweet at this time of proceedings.
Late Riser:
Yes it would work (at least to some degree) and (in Australia) has a key property of “nation building infrastructure” in that it can be financed (by the Commonwealth) at essentially no cost providing it is timed so as not to contribute to inflation in the construction market. There is thus little reason not to try it (ideally with a randomised controlled trial, though that would of course be controversial)
However, it would likely be politically controversial (though perhaps not if proposed right now) — there is a reason Mrs Thatcher legislated policies that led to the closure of about 5.000 school playing fields.
beguiledagain:
I think the more accurate term is “Nath trigger warning” and this has been borne out by subsequent events
I rebooted the PC (8G, I7, 2015 model) and reloaded PB. It took a surprisingly long time but C+ is now working fine.
Our empathy deficient PM.
The merde is getting closer to the fan in NSW:
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/energy-grid-under-threat-as-bushfires-bear-down-on-power-lines-20200103-p53om1.html
I hope so because, no offence to the South Australians, but if the power goes out all over NSW, that will be a whole different ball game. Comforting people just won’t cut it.
The photographer has a follow up after his Facebook post:
https://www.facebook.com/sean.davey.56
EGT, thanks for that. I have no experience in how you might implement such a scheme, nor in delivering emergency services. But shelter and recovery centres seemed like a decent response to the fires. They would build community and confidence, and could integrate some public services to boot. Fires and cyclones are very different beasts, but some of the expertise might overlap. Cheers.
The politics of disaster is a dangerous game. You need to find the right balance in all things.
Confessions @ #6026 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 10:17 pm
Thanks fess.
Fess,
From what you just posted about Morrison and covoy going into the Carbargo bushfire HQ without any food or water (that they were willing to share?), it sounds too me as though Morrison is just assuming that “The Government” provides for the needs to the fire fighters and displaced persons.
In the same way that many people assume “The Government” provides wheelchairs for disabled people.
Confessions. The word “wow” gets overused. But seriously, wow. Shame indeed, and not on the bloke reporting this.
‘fess,
I have been trying to post that all afternoon. You might remember a test earlier on today, but I’m damned if I can translate a facebook post to this page! I’ve saved it to my desktop and I’ve saved it to my pictures. I’ve sent it to myself as an email and then tried to copy and paste it here. All to no avail! How do you do it without mentioning the word Apple!?! 😀
“but if the power goes out all over NSW,”
Can’t happen though can it? It’s only with windmills that you get blackouts.
Right?!
Late Riser @ #6037 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 10:25 pm
Yep. Six cars in the Prime Ministerial convoy to Cobargo and not so much as a bottle of water for anyone.
I don’t think leadership in this situation is rocket surgery.
1. Cancel all peripheral activity e.g. meeting cricketers, playing backyard cricket at Kirribilli
2. Attend press conferences
3. Act with some empathy when attending fire grounds
4. Call emergency meetings – cabinet, strategic meetings with stakeholders – fire chiefs, ADF, Premiers
5. Promise stakeholders whatever they ask for
6. Start charity appeal
7. Promise funds for reconstruction
8. Promise a “full and comprehensive review”
9. Stand back and receive the thanks of grateful nation
Morrison hasn’t shown the first clue about leadership in a crisis
Blobbit @ #6039 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 10:29 pm
I’ll have to ask Chris Uhlmann. 😆
Bette Midler
✔
@BetteMidler
Pity the poor #Australians, their country ablaze, and their rotten @ScottMorrisonMP saying, “This is not the time to talk about Climate Change. We have to grow our economy.” What an idiot. What good is an economy in an uninhabitable country? Lead, you fuckwit!!
”I hope so because, no offence to the South Australians, but if the power goes out all over NSW, that will be a whole different ball game. Comforting people just won’t cut it.”
No worries, they’ll blame Greenies and/or renewables and Rupert will jump in to attack whoever is chosen to blame.
E. G. Theodore:
[‘Warning!!! Nath-alert.’]
nath is a stirrer, no more than others; he should not be singled out for making the odd analytical mistake, no more than you. And, do stop the over the top punctuation, emphasis.
You know you are in the shit when Bette Midler piles on!
Just discovered that the Mount Stromlo Observatory on the south-west fringe of Canberra has been evacuated and closed for operations until next Tuesday. A large portion of it burnt down in the 2003 fires, which started also around Batlow way, as BoerWar noted before. People working at Stromlo back then lost their houses in Duffy.
Stay safe everyone.
Steve777 @ #6044 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 10:31 pm
If they have no power to disseminate their poison it will make it a lot harder. 🙂
D&M, Late Riser:
I had to step away such was my anger and disbelief at how utterly clueless Morrison is. WTF were his minders thinking in any case even if the man has had an empathy bypass? It’s like the proverbial seagulls, flocking in en masse, swooping down and taking without giving, and flying off again.
A total blood boiler!!
C@tmomma @ #6033 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 7:28 pm
You need to find someone who has screenshotted it and posted to twitter. Otherwise, click on the date or hrs underneath their name and that turns the post into a link which you can post here like any other internet addresses. If the post is set to public anyone should be able to see it, regardless of whether they have a facebook account or are friends with the person.
If Morrison is a genuine Pentecostal then no wonder the bushfires are an issue for him. One of the key tenets of Pentecostalism is that an increase in natural disasters are ‘signs of the coming end times’ and his rapture to heaven, or Hawaii, whichever the case may be.
Mavis @ #6045 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 10:31 pm
Sorry, Mavis, but you’re absolutely wrong there. nath is a nasty, vicious little troll who tries to gain advantage for his project here by exploiting what he sees as people’s weak points. Sometimes he tries to ingratiate himself by pretending to be nice, but soon enough the real nath shows his true colours.
And it’s no mere ‘analytical mistake’. nath knows that the barrow he is pushing can be easily bent out of shape to further his attempted destabilisation of an issue and it’s only due to the careful rebuttal of his lies that the truth finally outs. He doesn’t deserve to be cut so much slack. All I can say is thank goodness people are prepared to take the time to take him on. He is dangerous because he lies with such slick assuredness. You better believe it.
These missteps* will follow Morrison, but they will also precede him. The fires are not done. Imagine the worst just happened to your community. People are exhausted, heartbroken, stunned, barely coping. Then you learn that the PM is visiting, and you have to deal with his shit. This will precede him.
* I don’t believe they are missteps, because that implies an error. Morrison’s actions aren’t due to error, they are due to inability. He simply lacks decency.
Confessions @ #6050 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 10:38 pm
Great! Thanks, ‘fess. 🙂