Something new under the sun today from Newspoll, with The Australian ($) publishing the first set of aggregated breakdowns since the election. This would appear to be limited to the new-look poll that was launched last month, which has dropped its telephone component and is now conducted entirely online. Only two results have been published in that time, but there is evidently more behind this poll than that, as the survey period extends back to November 7 and the sample size of 4562 suggests three polling periods rather than two.
The results as published are of interest in providing never-before-seen breakdowns for education level (no tertiary, TAFE/technical or tertiary) and household income (up to $50,000, up to $100,000, up to $150,000, and beyond). Including the first of these as a weighting variable promises to address difficulties pollsters may have been having in over-representing those with good education and high levels of civic engagement. However, the poll gives with one hand and takes with the other, in that it limits the state breakdowns are limited to New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. And it falls well short of the promised new age of pollster transparency, providing no detail on how the various sub-categories have been weighted.
The state breakdowns suggest either that Labor has recovered slightly in Queensland since the election, or that polling is still struggling to hit the mark there. The Coalition is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 58.4-41.6 at the election. Their primary vote is 40%, down from 43.7%, with Labor up from 26.7% to 29%, One Nation up from 8.9% to 13%, and the Greens up from 10.3% to 12%. The Coalition lead in New South Wales is 51-49, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election, from primary votes of Coalition 42% (42.5%), Labor 35% (34.6%) and Greens 10% (8.7%). Labor’s lead in Victoria is 53-47, barely different from the election result of 53.1-46.9, from primary votes of Coalition 40% (38.6%), Labor 38% (36.9%) and Greens 12% (11.9%).
Age breakdowns consist of four cohorts rather than the old three, and tell a globally familiar story of Labor dominating among the 18-to-34s with a lead of 57-43, while the 65-plus cohort goes 61-39 the other way. In between are a 50-50 from 35-49s and 51-49 to the Coalition among 50-64s. The primary votes are less radical than the recent findings of the Australian Election Study survey: the primary votes among the young cohort are Coalition 34%, Labor 35% and Greens 22%, compared with 37%, 23% and 28% respectively in the AES.
Reflecting polling in Britain, there is little distinction in the balance of major party support between the three education cohorts (UPDATE: actually not so – I was thinking of social class, education was associated with Labor support), contrary to the traditional expectation that the party of the working class would do best among those with no tertiary education. The Coalition instead leads 52-48 among both that cohort and the university-educated, with Labor leading 51-49 among those with TAFE or other technical qualifications. However, household income breakdowns are more in line with traditional expectation, with Labor leading 53-47 at the bottom end, the Coalition leading 51-49 in the lower-middle, and the Coalition leading 58-42 in both of the upper cohorts.
Leadership ratings turn up a few curiosities, such as Scott Morrison rating better in Victoria (46% on both approval and disapproval) than New South Wales (41% and 51%) and Queensland (43% and 51%). Conversely, Anthony Albanese is stronger in his home state of New South Wales (41% and 40%) than Victoria (37% and 42%) and Queensland (35% and 49%).
mundo @ #5746 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 4:46 pm
mundo is a smart arse! A smart arse I tells ya! 🙄
Greensborough Growler says: Friday, January 3, 2020 at 4:56 pm
There’s always a Trump tweet.
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
· Nov 30, 2011
In order to get elected, @BarackObama will start a war with Iran.
*********************************************************************
Here’s why Trump viewed a president starting war with Iran as a guaranteed path to re-election
President Donald Trump’s Pentagon on Thursday claimed credit for the “hugely consequential” assassination of Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani in Iraq.
With Middle East analysts expecting retaliation — and even war — it’s important to remember Trump’s views on the subject.
I always said @BarackObama will attack Iran, in some form, prior to the election.
Polls are starting to look really bad for Obama. Looks like he’ll have to start a war or major conflict to win. Don’t put it past him!
Don’t let Obama play the Iran card in order to start a war in order to get elected–be careful Republicans!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 22, 2012
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/01/heres-why-trump-viewed-a-president-starting-war-with-iran-as-a-guaranteed-path-to-re-election/
Sorry I just scrolled back and caught up with Guytaur already posting the Iran assassination.
Puff and others
I can but agree with your concerns about that old guy (Allen?) allegedly assaulting the woman who complained about Morrison. I hope she makes a complaint. Xanthippe thinks Allen is probably worth investigating. You would not adopt such behaviours for the first time at his age, especially in front of cameras. Has he done the same or worse before to others?
Somewhat off-topic, I would like to raise the foreshadowed abolition of aged care assessment teams as an important issue for us all.
At present, decisions on aged care; whether a person should go to an aged care facility, should receive home care or whatever is needed, are made by aged care assessment teams (ACATs), comprising state healthcare experts and funded by the federal government.
In a sneaky move, on December 30, in the middle of New Year preparations and nationwide coverage of our bushfires, the federal government announced the funding would go to private assessors, sometime in 2021, instead.
NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard, though a Liberal, immediately blasted the decision, saying there had been no consultation about such a significant move. He also said it was a bad move, before the current aged care royal commission has concluded.
We all know the problems arising from privatising government services. How would private organisations ensure the right amount of resources for proper aged care assessment? Would private profit come before the employment of enough qualified staff?
Before ACATs came along, doctors would sometimes refer older people to nursing homes that they often had a financial interest in.
I hope the Labor Party and others take up this issue in the New Year. If any of us could be, or have relatives, in need of proper aged care, this could be vital.
I wouldn’t expect a leadership challenge at this stage but would expect plenty of negativity around Morrison among Liberals so will be watching certain talking heads.
The narrative has already shifted from a few weeks ago when we saw MP’s saying this wasn’t resonating or this was all about greenies to now near on silence and this could also explain why the ALP has taken a step back because they would be hearing the same on the ground message.
We are seeing the odd comment about land clearing but its coming across as a lukewarm response. I suspect if there isn’t a serious pushback by the usual suspects within the next week or two then that can be taken as telling us where Morrison’s leadership is at.
Moir keeps hitting home run after home run:
Socrates
On Twitter there are examples of this man’s unwanted touching and misogynistic behaviours in Council meetings, which he has got away with, apparently.
nath @ #5704 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 4:12 pm
You win. Absolutely, hands down. No contest. (Just kidding).
In a NW wind, embers will be blown towards the SE. Try to figure out where a fire to the NE might travel in a NW wind.
This ridiculous to and fro started because you stated that eucalypts close to towns caused the towns to burn. I simply pointed out that in the case of Cobargo, this was not the case. It is still not the case.
I certainly regret ever mentioning Mensa, long, long ago, since people seem to be so irrationally threatened by such information. The original (Tom, sky fairies and rational thought) context is long forgotten, and intellectually challenged people, like yourself, now seem to think it is something of which I should be ashamed. All it does is to provide me and my family with good company, amongst whom we can hold interesting, wide ranging conversations on all manner of subjects, including books, films, science, mathematics, ethics and transcendental idealism. As well as really good, fun games nights.
There is something funny about that refusal to shake hands.
The lady says she told Morrison that she refused to shake his hand unless RFS volunteers were paid.
Morrison didn’t respond yet doesn’t he have a policy or was the announcement the other day just a stunt because that does seem like a friendly reason to refuse and one that shouldn’t be too difficult for a switched on politician to handle.
Lizzie
Thanks, not surprised. It only takes one person to make a complaint, as with Doyle, for it all to unravel.
‘Socrates says:
Friday, January 3, 2020 at 4:50 pm
Have others caught up with the news from Iraq/Iran? Trump has gone completely mad. Not content with having assassinated a senior Iran backed Iraqi Shiite leader, it has just been confirmed that the US has assassinated (via Trump order) Iran’s top general currently in Iraq – Qassem Soleimani. This is madness – effectively a declaration of war on Iran.
https://www.juancole.com/2020/01/trump-troll-impeachment.html
Life becoming art with Wag the Dog?
Now Australia really needs some leadership on two fronts, domestic and foreign policy. This killing is illegal. We need to disassociate ourselves with USA and get out of Iraq ASAP.
Australia needs to start issuing travel advisories for a half dozen mid-east countries. Imagine if our 2003 support of the US invasion had made us a terrorist target. Next thing you know Islamic fundamentalists would be blowing up Aussie tourists in Bali. Not so hard to imagine, is it? This is worse.’
There has been a de facto low level ‘hot’ war not only in Syria but also Iraq. The main protoganists are basically Iran v Israel. Regional players Turkey and Saudi and Big Powers Russia and China and the US are all fartarsing around.
Israel, for example, has war planes based in the Caucuses (!) which it uses to bomb various Iranian proxies in northern Iraq. Iran runs militias from Iraq to Lebanon. It has never ceased trying to arm Heshbollah with missiles capable of hitting Israel. This has reached a recent peak with an attempt to retro fit Lebanon-based missiles with guidance systems.
Israeli air strikes have been far more extensive than reported. They have four primary targets: Heshbolla/Iranian leadership, transport carrying missiles and missile parts from Iran to Lebanon, Heshbollah workshops that are used to retrofit the missiles; missile stores. Leadership targets can be anywhere in Syria and Iraq.
In that general context knocking off the leader of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards could reasonably be viewed as an escalation.
Player One:
It is quite likely that the Adani Galilee project is founded on a corrupt transaction in India.
If that is so, it is a matter of law not politics.
And as bakunin pointed out, this alleged corruption seems to have led to the disservice of Indian electricity consumer in forcing them to pay a 30% premium.
There is currently a judge in New Delhi looking into apparent corruption by the (Indian) owner of Wollongong Coal. This is as a matter of law and not politics.
It will take considerable time and resources and also carries risk, but if the desire is to Stop Adanic then I would’ve thought it’s worth pursuing (formally, beyond merely complaining about it) given previous strategies have failed (in the objective of Stopping Adani)
I understand that an Indian judge finding serious corruption is well within power to dissolve the contract between the Adani entity and the non-Adani entity (which is where the corruption would sit).
Check this out from the Daily Telegraph. In Scrott’s media office it will be “Awhooga awhooga, Defcon 1 . Repeat Defcon 1″ . Next step ‘The Front Page Photoshop” ?
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/cobargo-resident-snubs-pm-after-losing-home-in-bushfires/news-story/c9eeb73397c2390e10ded020165ccc6d
C@tmomma @ #5757 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 5:08 pm
Greg Mullins made a good point in his interview today … which was that he didn’t think there was a single person in Australia (other than Smirko & JustJoshing) who would agree with the statement that (WTTE) “We just can’t afford to provide any more support for fighting the bushfires”. Whoever says that should be run out of office. And (I would add) that this should include those – like Berejiklian – who carefully refuse to ask for more support, so that they can claim “we are being given all the support we asked for!”
This one has a loooong way to run yet.
“I accept that you have admitted defeat on the coal exports debate and that you have fallen prey to the usual Greens response when intellectually cornered: vicious accusations about lying and the hideously unfunny snarking.”
This is your ego working to defend your world view.
You’ve not told us how the price of coal varies; surely would be something to do with supply. I even gave you a paper on coal price modelling, did you bother to read it?
And you rely on the language of hate and labelling more than anyone else here. But rather than accuse me of something, you accuse a group. This is because you are a coward.
Please avail us with your unique knowledge of how coal prices are not affected by supply changes.
Follow this thread if you can. I’m not sure if the link will work.
I remember talking to a chap from Texas. He was not going to vote for Hillary because she was corrupt and she would start a war.
I changed the topic pretty quickly.
GG does the links well. I can’t. 🙁
E. G. Theodore @ #5763 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 5:20 pm
I get your argument. But if the hideous environmental impact is not regarded by some as sufficient reason to stop Adani – something that would be trivially easy for any of the governments involved (Labor and Liberal) to do for that reason alone … then why would the fact of Adani’s corruption do it?
Of course the entire approval process for the Adani mine has been utterly corrupted. But – sadly – not just in India, and not just on the Adani side 🙁
Following on from the Cobargo story. Another in South Australia
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-03/liberal-mp-allegedly-sexually-harassed-connie-bonaros-at-party/11839378
Oh Sooty, you saint and martyr. Maybe Brian of the Hill(song) are Alive With the Sound of Cash Registers will put you up for sainthood.
https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/prime-minister-scott-morrison-responds-to-criticism-while-visiting-fireravaged-bairnsdale/news-story/a6ce1d11498f3ae80c95fbc3320f62e1
Urk. Gag. Choke. Bucket? Where’s that damned bucket?
E. G. Theodore says:
Friday, January 3, 2020 at 5:20 pm
Player One:
I can agree that bit is “hard”. And I’m open to suggestions on that one.
It is quite likely that the Adani Galilee project is founded on a corrupt transaction in India.
If that is so, it is a matter of law not politics.
And as bakunin pointed out, this alleged corruption seems to have led to the disservice of Indian electricity consumer in forcing them to pay a 30% premium.
There is currently a judge in New Delhi looking into apparent corruption by the (Indian) owner of Wollongong Coal. This is as a matter of law and not politics.
It will take considerable time and resources and also carries risk, but if the desire is to Stop Adanic then I would’ve thought it’s worth pursuing (formally, beyond merely complaining about it) given previous strategies have failed (in the objective of Stopping Adani)
I understand that an Indian judge finding serious corruption is well within power to dissolve the contract between the Adani entity and the non-Adani entity (which is where the corruption would sit).’
Some pay the premium. Hundreds of millions simply pinch it:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/power/this-army-of-women-is-battling-indias-10-billion-power-problem/articleshow/60936581.cms
The assumption that India won’t work around any possible price signals arising from Australian export shortfalls is false because there would merely be a continuation of what occurs already.
Yet it is on this irrational basis that the Greens are screaming ‘coal huggers’ and ‘climate deniers’ and ‘arsonists’ and so on and so forth.
Boerwar
Thanks for the useful context. I was aware of the defacto war between Iran and Israel, and its long history, and spillover in the Syrian civil war. I was not aware of the Israeli planes in the Caucasus!
Either way this seems a large escalation. The US is now taking steps the Israelis and Iranians have not done to each other. I assume the Saudis also have a large stake in this. But we do not! We should get all ADF personnel out of there ASAP. Albanese should not continue bipartisan support for US mid east policy if it involves extra-judicial killings not supported by the UN or anyone else. Australia should not be seen to support it.
Arrogant Morrison should take the criticism personally.
It is directed at him.
Personally.
According to BW this is BS alarmist crap.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/03/we-are-seeing-the-very-worst-of-our-scientific-predictions-come-to-pass-in-these-bushfires
It seems our Prime Minister is a Monty Python fan. Here he is playing the role of the Rabbit of Caerbannog while the cricketers perform the famous “Run Away ! Run Away!” scene.
Boerwar @ #5776 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 5:37 pm
When someone says they don’t take it personally, you know they take it personally.
lizzie @ #5769 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 5:29 pm
https://twitter.com/shaunmicallef?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Is that it ❓ Is the BS war over ❓ 😇
Boerwar is some kind of genius
‘The assumption that India won’t work around any possible price signals arising from Australian export shortfalls is false because there would merely be a continuation of what occurs already.”
So earlier there would be no price signal (because there sin’t a free market, which means… something), and now it’s that they have a ‘work around’… How do they work around a higher cost? That makes no sense.
But hey, we know Boerwar will say anything to keep the coal exports happening.
Boerwar
“Yet it is on this irrational basis that the Greens are screaming ‘coal huggers’ and ‘climate deniers’ and ‘arsonists’ and so on and so forth.”
And of course… It’s the Greens… Yet again… Oh wow.
Dan Andrews drawing the praise for his organisation,and approach to the Bushfires. Scotty from marketing would die for a review like this.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/andrews-has-spent-years-preparing-for-this-crisis-and-it-shows-20200103-p53onk.html
KayJay
It doesn’t seem to be quite the beginning of the Desiderata by Micallef, but gives the flavour!
Nath – having graduated in prat studies 1, prat studies 2 and prat studies 3, I see you are aiming for post graduate level.
And good luck with taking on PB people with knowledge of ecology and fires. Likely to get scorched.
guytaur @ #5777 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 5:38 pm
You know what scares me? It is that every single time the IPCC has issued a report, the reality has very soon proven to be worse than their predictions. This is because scientists, by temperament and convention, tend to be quite conservative, and also the processes of the IPCC are far more political than they should be.
Now consider this …
And after that, he gets really alarming 🙁
Socrates
Andrew Wilkie agrees with us.
No doubt that means the LNP will go all the way with Trump.
yabba
says:
This ridiculous to and fro started because you stated that eucalypts close to towns caused the towns to burn. I simply pointed out that in the case of Cobargo, this was not the case. It is still not the case.
________________________________
These state and national parks full of eucalypts surrounding the town must be invisible to mensa members:
https://imgflip.com/i/3l2cl2
That probably fits into the ‘dont snark a question unless you know the answer’ lesson for the day.
lizzie @ #5785 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 5:44 pm
I think its mostly there working backwards. Beautiful poem.
Q. To all my favourite daughter – What do I know ❓
A. Nothing.
Recommended reading for some.
lizzie @ #5791 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 5:53 pm
Steady! 🙂
“Mr Morrison was due to visit his Indian counterpart, Narendra Modi, from January 12 to 16 but said on Friday afternoon he was “inclined not to proceed”. ” Simply sorted; send your foreign minister, Marise Payne, in your place you weak little runt. She’s about as useful as you are.
“He has also cancelled plans to attend the Sydney Test cricket match over the weekend, a traditional prime ministerial engagement…” Means he just couldn’t face the humilitation of being jeered, booed and made fun of and having it splashed all over the idiot box and in the papers both here and overseas. Coward.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pm-inclined-to-cancel-indian-trip-amid-bushfire-crisis-20200103-p53olk.html
Astrobleme:
The only thing in the thermal coal for electricity market that operates anything like a normal market prices is the spot price.
However:
– most thermal coal for electricity is via long term contracts, not spot;
– spot in this case means anything for delivery in one year or less (a very large time frame)
Both of which militate strongly against the effective thermal coal for electricity market operating as a free market.
The prime minister’s office says he has been in constant contact with officials – but declines to fill in any of the blanks
Amy Remeikis attempts to do so.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/03/where-the-bloody-hell-was-he-how-scott-morrison-spent-the-past-week-of-the-bushfire-crisis?CMP=share_btn_tw
Austria’s centre-right leader Sebastian Kurz forms new government with Greens
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-03/austrian-conservatives-greens-sebastian-kurz-returned-to-power/11839168
EG Theodore
I get that, but we were speculating what would happen if Australia stopped exporting.
The contract price is based around the imagined future price probably with a discount for volume etc; however if people know supply is going to be limited, the price would be higher. The contract price is still governed by supply and demand, much like iron ore and gold – almost all commodities are traded on contract, not just coal.
This whole debate is about whether Australia not supplying coal would impact coal prices.
Boerwar is using this as a defence to continue exporting, because it would apparently make no difference.
I provided him with a detailed analysis of what a simple ramp down in production (along the lines of keeping consistent with 2 C goals) and it showed China and India would be paying more.
I can’t let this slide, as this misconception that what Australia does will have no impact is not true.
And it’s used to criticise people who promote action on climate change.
lizzie @ #5796 Friday, January 3rd, 2020 – 5:59 pm
That article will eventually be referenced by Morrison’s political obituary. Which I suspect is already being written.
It is hard to be believe you could so quickly go from “Cock of the walk” to “the Cock walking off”
Rainfall figures lowest in 113 years for some Queensland farmers, desperate to diversify and keep going
https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2020-01-03/lowest-rainfall-in-queensland-for-113-years/11837418