Not a creature was stirring

Chisholm and Kooyong court ruling imminent; comparison of American and Australian political attitudes; and a merry Christmas to all.

At what’s normally a dull time for electoral news, the Federal Court has decided to beat Santa to the punch by announcing its judgement in the challenges to the Chisholm and Kooyong results at 2:15pm today. I’ll add a dedicated post when that happens, but for the time being, here’s the latest thread for general political discussion, it being long past time for a new one.

Two other items of news I can think to mention: the United States Studies Centre has published a report that compares survey results on political attitudes in Australia and the United States, which reaches the intuitive conclusions that Australians are both less conservative and less polarised by partisanship; and GhostWhoVotes offers a neat presentation of the states’ House of Representatives seat entitlements based on current population numbers, six months out from the final determination.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

782 comments on “Not a creature was stirring”

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  1. Nicholas @ #365 Tuesday, December 24th, 2019 – 3:19 pm

    What she is doing at the moment is very impressive on a personal level, but she isn’t really thinking or acting politically at this stage.

    Of course she isn’t. Only political tragics could possibly think climate change is a ‘political’ problem, and amenable to ‘political’ solutions. That (for instance) if we could just get the correct party elected then all will be well. This is just not the case. Australia is a perfect example of why this is just nonsense. Both major parties here fall over themselves to support fossil fuels. Sure, one party would probably do slightly better than the other, but neither one currently looks like it is going to make the kind of tough decisions that are actually required to make a real difference. They will, at best, tinker at the edges and achieve very little.

    Also, one major problem with Greta acting ‘politically’ is that the politics of climate change are different in each and every country. Just as a f’rinstance, the UK has a conservative government but is generally pro-active on climate change. Australia has a conservative government but is in deep denial. Europe has a mix of governments but seems to be basically united in being pro-active. The US is a basket case in which no ‘political’ approach is likely to work. In fact, politicising climate change is the worst thing you could do in the US. The ‘green new deal’ (which might work in some countries) is pretty much guaranteed to completely turn off most US voters.

    Overall, it seems that the countries that are best at addressing climate change are the ones where the issue is least political. But even so, they are still generally failing to do as much as is required.

    So Greta Thunberg’s greatest contribution is not ‘political’ at all, and nor should it be – it is to get people to accept the scale of the problem – something many people seem unable to comprehend – and to point out just how far we are falling short in addressing it. Her role is not to offer particular solutions – political or otherwise.

    While I hesitate to use the term, any solution – if there is in fact going to be one – is going to have to come from ‘woke’ people, not from governments. Governments have (by and large) failed to address it, and will continue to fail. If they act at all, it will very likely be much too little, and much too late.

  2. lizzie says: Tuesday, December 24, 2019 at 4:06 pm

    Oliver Yates
    @_Oliver_Yates
    ·
    54m
    There is no victory for the Liberals. They were found guilty of misleading and deceptive conduct.. voter fraud. The fact that there was not enough fraud to over turn an election result is irrelevant. There would never be enough in a safe seat but the action is illegal

    **********************************************************************

    So, does Gladys Liu get her $ 100, 000 ‘loan’ she made to the liberal party back now ?????

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/gladys-liu-demanded-liberal-party-pay-back-her-100k-donation-20191204-p53gvp.html

  3. lizzie @ #403 Tuesday, December 24th, 2019 – 3:15 pm

    Someone isn’t deceived.

    @mick_minion
    ·
    3m
    Morrison’s first instinct is always to lie. His bullshit paid leave announcement for conditions that have been in the award for many years https://apsc.gov.au/apsc-enterprise-agreement-2015-18#E13 We deserve better than lies. Morrison will be back in Hawaii before New Year

    Interesting. If anyone has a link that works (I get a 404 error) it might be worth reading.

  4. Re Greta

    What she is doing at the moment is very impressive on a personal level, but she isn’t really thinking or acting politically at this stage.

    I hadn’t thought of it like that. Good comment. But if she is not acting politically then she will be used politically, or already is.

  5. @abcnews
    Via
    @mick_minion
    Moron is bullshitting and
    @ABC
    should have researched. They already get paid. It is the volunteers that are not public servants that miss out #bushfires #lnplies

  6. @shayne_chester
    1h
    Replying to
    @alexbhturnbull and @AusElectoralCom
    Strange how the law works. Obviously the INTENT of fake posters was to misdirect Chinese voters. But the Fed Court only ruled on whether enough voters were misled to make a difference. Like drink driving but getting off because you didn’t kill anyone.

  7. And even if it wasn’t already in the agreement, what would have been the mechanism by which the change could be made?

    Ministerial decree?

    It’s about conditions of employment. They need to have the approval of employer, employee and any other interested party (ie unions) to make any changes to existing conditions, I would have thought.

    Either way, I’m not sure how this would have been achieved quickly.

    Also … one does wonder whether #ScottyFromMarketing already knew this was an existing employment condition and was hoping pre-Xmas break people would give him credit for the announcement, but be switched off again by the time the truth comes out over Xmas.

    I wouldn’t put anything past this slippery bastard.

  8. Chinda,

    A provision already exists that covers leave to fight bush fires and other emergencies and is at the discretion of the Commisioner whether it will be paid leave.

    It already exists. All Morrison has done is put a four week limit on the leave being paid leave. Nothing else.

    Individual departments will cover any cost out of existing budgets and, in fact, it could actually save the government money as kindly pointed out in a earlier post by Mexicanbeemer.

    It is nothing but bullshit and of course Morrison knows it already exists.

    In reality it will achieve nothing positive.

    Cheers.

  9. Richard Flanagan in full flight. Excoriating criticism of a man who’s small in every way.

    “Richard Flanagan: Aloha, little Scotty from Marketing, is it resurrection you’re looking for?”
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/people/2019/12/24/richard-flanagan-scott-morrison-hawaii-bushfires-gaslighting/

    When they are up against a megafire, firefighters don’t say I’m only one man or one woman, or that our crew are only six people. They do their bit. They stand up. They fight. They make a difference. Where’s the fight in Scott Morrison?

    He’s a small man, a man who uses his wife and children as cover for his own bad decisions, who runs away when the heat is on. He’s no more or less than a shill for the coal industry. When they gave him the only clean coal on the planet, a carefully varnished piece of black rock, he was a big man in parliament waving it in all our faces: His dark master, our black future.

    But when the gates of hell opened, he was in Hawaii, a little man making hang loose signs, reportedly saying fires were a state, not federal, issue.

    He may be our elected Prime Minister. But he is no leader. And no matter how many die this summer his position will not change.

  10. Albanese should be onto SmoKo’s faux paid leave announcement and keep pushing him to dip into the budget for a payment to the private sector volunteer firefighters.

  11. Killer first sentence by Richard Flanagan:

    The return of Nero was scripted by Scotty from Marketing and embellished and blown up by his colleagues in Publicity over at Newscorp.

    😐

  12. Labor the always honest party. There are heaps I could use – but two are
    Mediscare
    Red Shirts.
    Every political party does things wrong over time.

  13. Scomo is starting to look a lot like Howard. From the misstep of Hawaii to four weeks paid leave you’d have to say he has a knack for spinning the political debate in his favour which clearly deranges the ALP.

    I had thought Albo was a favourite for 2022 but now I think you’d have to bank on Scomo getting 5 years as PM and probs handing over to porter in 2024.

    The question for the alp is whom do they have who is an election winner for 2025? The hope of the side is cryin Jim but they may be better of trying someone from outside parliament to come in 2022 to lead the party at the 2025 election. That’s going to take someone who has got popular appeal, is credible and can overcome factional resistance of the various union/ party hacks.

    Albo May do the alp one last favour and anoint someone from outside and shoehorn them into a safe seat in 2022 – ideally someone from qld whose pro labor but has had a business career.

  14. There are 1867 available Pantone colours to choose from and the Liberals managed to get the exact Medium Purple U colouring…
    The font exactly the same too – right down to the square dotted i.

  15. @Lars Von Trier

    Getting rid of the Morrison government might have to require what George Monbiot has described as political rewilding, which would result in the building of a massive truly grassroots movement that can counter all this disinformation being propagated through social media.

    I fear unless this occurs, then Scott Morrison could be in the lodge for at least as long as John Howard, maybe Robert Menzies or even become Prime Minister for life.

  16. A great Christmas to all and a fat, fantastic 2020.

    Thanks to all, both “ good” and “ bad”, for providing a very interesting and informative oasis for a political tragic like I.

    Thanks to William for providing the “ Field of Dreams” on which we joust.

    Cheers to all.

  17. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Tuesday, December 24, 2019 at 3:39 pm

    …”It actually saves the budget money because unused leave is a cost”…

    Unused leave is a liability, not a cost.
    It doesn’t become a cost until after it has been paid.

  18. Mediscare:

    Refer item 20 on the IPA wishlist: “20 Means-test Medicare”.
    The Coalition opposed the establishment of Mecicare
    The Coalition dismantled Medibank
    The “Co-payment” in the 2014 Budget. Had that passed it would have been racheted up in non-election years and private insurers allowed in.

    Mediscare = Medifact.

  19. Only political tragics could possibly think climate change is a ‘political’ problem, and amenable to ‘political’ solutions.

    Acting on climate change (or declining to act) is inescapably political because it involves making choices about how to distribute resources, how to distribute burdens and costs, what to produce and how to produce it, how political power will be distributed and wielded. There is no way to avoid the need for political change if we are going to cut emissions drastically. At this stage Greta Thunberg is declining to endorse specific political strategies and goals. She may not have any strongly held views on that yet. When she does develop her political views it would be helpful if she used her profile to back specific efforts at political organizing.

  20. PeeBee says:
    Tuesday, December 24, 2019 at 5:11 pm

    …”Not Sure, how do you come to the conclusion that calling someone an arsewipe is not thuggish behaviour”…

    As I already said, I hadn’t seen that comment and it was not part of the original conversation. (10 hours post)
    And, if you think that a bit of name calling and mostly light hearted mockery is akin to thuggery, then you have never met an actual thug.

  21. Here ya go PeeBee:

    thuggery
    /ˈθʌɡəri/
    noun
    violent behaviour, especially of a criminal nature.
    “a cowardly act of mindless thuggery”

    Synonyms:
    Violence, Ferocity, Savagery, Barbarism, Aggro, Rage, Coercion, Bloodlust.

    Do you think you might have gone a bit over the top?

  22. That judgment on Kooyong/Chisholm was about as good as I could have hoped for, really, and given that the person who sticks their name on these kinds of things now has to try to explain why they did not commit an offense is, to my mind, a very good thing.

    The court makes it clear that this kind of trickery is not on, and hopefully that means the AEC will pursue these matters properly next time and the parties won’t be trying this kind of nonsense in future.

  23. Okay, so, Minimalist, environmentally-sound, or Maximalist, over-the-top Christmas tree and decorations?

    Ours is the former. My son has just cut down the tree and we are decorating it with a $2 packet of baubles from KMart. I have also bought a Merry Christmas banner to hang in the house and a Merry Christmas sign to hang on the front door. I will be using unused wrapping paper from years past to wrap the presents.

    No large family gathering for us either. Our relatives are too far flung or too ill to travel. We will celebrate in the usual way with our Jamie Oliver recipe Roast Organic Free Range Chicken and a couple of trays of roast vegetables. And a Darrell Lea Nougat pudding. 🙂

  24. @Jackol

    The High Court judgement concerning both the Liberal Party campaign tactics in Kooyong and Chisholm during the federal election does not surprise. Because with each passing day, Australia has ceased being truly a Liberal Democracy, rather it is becoming a very corrupt, authoritarian, illiberal democracy.

    Also, this country is increasingly becoming like those in South America. Indeed, it is only going to take a severe recession for extensive favelas to start emerging in our major urban areas, given they are already present in heavily Aboriginal communities in the outback.

  25. All resource allocation decisions are political.
    All decisions relating to global warming are resource allocation decisions.
    Global warming is politics with a capital pee.
    End of story.

  26. I am a bit confused. Did they do Mr Frydenberg’s citizenship thingie in a separate (unfinished) process? That would make sense, I suppose.

  27. ‘Nicholas says:
    Tuesday, December 24, 2019 at 5:22 pm

    Only political tragics could possibly think climate change is a ‘political’ problem, and amenable to ‘political’ solutions.

    Acting on climate change (or declining to act) is inescapably political…’

    Be warned. That is twice in one day that Nicholas and moi-meme are 100% on the same page. M. Marx eat your heart out.

  28. Australian per capita wealth in the September quarter went up by around $10,000.

    Mr Morrison is as safe as houses and shares are safe.

  29. PeeBee says:
    Tuesday, December 24, 2019 at 5:49 pm

    …”Not Sure, thanks for looking it up and confirming my correct usage of thuggery”…

    I did no such thing but you’re welcome, I suppose.
    I guess some people are simply determined to be wilfully misinformed.

  30. Acting on climate change is political. That us why Labor is in a corner. Greens see it as something to beat Labor over the head with and are not interested in looking for a solution.

    The Liberals see it as something to beat Labor over the head with and are not interested in a solution.

    The anti Labor parties are in full agreement on their tactics.

  31. Mr Denmore
    @MrDenmore
    ·
    7h
    Could demographics explain why politicians are ignoring climate change as an issue? From ABS data released this month – the fastest-growing age cohorts in Australia are 70 and above. People aged 15-19 and 20-24 are among the slowest growing.

  32. Greensborough Growler @ #445 Tuesday, December 24th, 2019 – 5:06 pm

    Mr Denmore
    @MrDenmore
    ·
    7h
    Could demographics explain why politicians are ignoring climate change as an issue? From ABS data released this month – the fastest-growing age cohorts in Australia are 70 and above. People aged 15-19 and 20-24 are among the slowest growing.

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Would you happen to know the units on this graph?

  33. Late Riser @ #447 Tuesday, December 24th, 2019 – 6:09 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #445 Tuesday, December 24th, 2019 – 5:06 pm

    Mr Denmore
    @MrDenmore
    ·
    7h
    Could demographics explain why politicians are ignoring climate change as an issue? From ABS data released this month – the fastest-growing age cohorts in Australia are 70 and above. People aged 15-19 and 20-24 are among the slowest growing.

    <a href="” rel=”nofollow”>” rel=”nofollow”>

    Would you happen to know the units on this graph?

    Looks like the actual percentage increase over the time frame measured.

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