Not a creature was stirring

Chisholm and Kooyong court ruling imminent; comparison of American and Australian political attitudes; and a merry Christmas to all.

At what’s normally a dull time for electoral news, the Federal Court has decided to beat Santa to the punch by announcing its judgement in the challenges to the Chisholm and Kooyong results at 2:15pm today. I’ll add a dedicated post when that happens, but for the time being, here’s the latest thread for general political discussion, it being long past time for a new one.

Two other items of news I can think to mention: the United States Studies Centre has published a report that compares survey results on political attitudes in Australia and the United States, which reaches the intuitive conclusions that Australians are both less conservative and less polarised by partisanship; and GhostWhoVotes offers a neat presentation of the states’ House of Representatives seat entitlements based on current population numbers, six months out from the final determination.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

782 comments on “Not a creature was stirring”

Comments Page 6 of 16
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  1. “…it’s a great consolation to know that the federal government will still be paying tax refunds to people who own fully franked shares”

    … including those who didn’t actually didn’t pay tax. It’s free money for wealthy “self-funded” retirees.

  2. “He said volunteers had spent hundreds of dollars on fuel driving to and from strike teams up to three hours away.

    “Why aren’t we picking up the tab for legitimate expenses like we do for paid people?””

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/out-of-control-volunteer-firefighters-demand-income-support-equipment-20191223-p53mhb.html

    If this is true then its a fwarking mess. I would have thought that the vollies should rock up to their local station and then get transport needs and expenses met from there? Something that the State Govts (at least in the first instance) need to deal with now.

  3. The LNP, by closing car manufacturing in Australia, have achieved more for the environment in recent times than Greta Thunberg.

    How?

  4. @peggymel2001
    ·
    52m
    North Stradbroke. A water taxi ride away from Brisbane’s CBD. That bastard Rupert Murdoch is on over drive attacking Qld Premier, the group of 36 led by Greg Mullins, the BoM. Brainwashing Queensland with the monopoly media propaganda machine. Criminal. Corrupt, fascist.

  5. PeeBee says:
    Tuesday, December 24, 2019 at 11:27 am

    …”Last night I witnessed contributors on this blog act like thugs. Getting stuck into BW as though it was some sort of stoning event, where they seemed to egg themselves on to see how low they could go.”…

    For the record:

    Boerwar says:
    Monday, December 23, 2019 at 8:55 pm

    …”How useful in the Global Warming Fight is Ms Thunberg?
    Her utterances are simplistic.
    What has she achieved?
    She provides a useful foil for the Morrisons of the world”…

    poroti says:
    Monday, December 23, 2019 at 9:03 pm

    …”More than you. So lift your game”…

    Not Sure says:
    Monday, December 23, 2019 at 9:05 pm

    …”Are you Andrew Bolt?”…

    Not Sure says:
    Monday, December 23, 2019 at 9:11 pm

    …”Tell us about that time you started your own global movement influencing 10’s if not 100’s of millions of people?”…

    jenauthor says:
    Monday, December 23, 2019 at 9:17 pm

    …”Thunberg has focused the youth and some not so youthful by being a symbol of what might be a denied future”…

    Goll says:
    Monday, December 23, 2019 at 9:17 pm

    …”Millions of Greta Thunbergs throughout the world will not be dismissed by older rich white fellows telling them to go back to school and learn”…

    nath says:
    Monday, December 23, 2019 at 9:17 pm

    …”Earnest teenagers can be a little annoying but at least Greta is doing something more constructive than murdering wombats”…

    Player One says:
    Monday, December 23, 2019 at 9:35 pm

    …”Much more use than you, clearly”…

    Astrobleme says:
    Monday, December 23, 2019 at 9:38 pm

    …”Classic… I guess if Boerwar thinks she’s useless, she should just STFU?”…

    Player One says:
    Monday, December 23, 2019 at 10:04 pm

    …”Boerwar is just embarrassed because a 16 year old girl has proven herself to be far more useful than he could ever hope to be”…

    poroti says:
    Monday, December 23, 2019 at 10:21 pm

    …”Thurnberg ? Boerwar still pissed with the Swedes over the Dutch-Swedish war in the 17th century”…

    ………..
    That’s about all of it. (I abbreviated several fairly insignificant bits)

    Boerwar made another fairly innocuous reply to Poroti at about 9:07 PM and wasn’t heard from again, but if this is your idea of a thug, then you have simply never met one.

    The only things said that a “reasonable” person could consider even remotely offensive were: (in order of offensiveness)

    1. Boerwar’s own commentary on Thunberg
    2. My Andrew Bolt snipe
    3. Nath’s wombat jibe

    Boerwar enjoys stirring up trouble by weaving manipulation with the truth, he is exceptionally good at it.
    And he gets in return much less than he dishes out.
    If this upsets you, then perhaps next time he accuses someone of being a liar, or tells them to shut the fuck up, you might like to intervene.

  6. “How?”

    Re: LNP being better than Thunberg for the environment.

    Fawk knows. I was just trying the whole contrarian thing to see how it goes.

    Bit tedious really, tbh.

  7. It seems that Balmoral is in Angus Taylor’s electorate.

    If it is, Angus should be able to direct some of his easily gained funds from Treasury to help them, but I suppose it wouldn’t strictly qualify for LNP pork.

  8. “Has Ms Thunberg made a practical difference in terms of a reduction in CO2 emissions?”

    Which question has zero relevance to the real world. 🙂 But, i can see where it comes from. Seems to me to be a slight adaptation of the “but we only put out 1.3% of emissions so what difference does it make??”

    Yup, Thunberg is an “influencer”. And that’s her relevance. Getting others to make a difference, mainly in the context of politics which is what has been so badly lacking and so crippling for any practical response. Thunberg being an effective influencer is a nightmare for idiots like Bolt and the other RWNJ filth particularly given her main target audience.

  9. Went to local shopping centre early this morning. Everyone else had the same idea. Lol!

    Anyhoo bumped into acquaintances and out of all the topics, they brought up the fires and volunteers that should be compensated for all the time they are taking up with the current fires. The quote by them was the country is burning and in order to keep people on the frontline, they ought to be paid.

  10. ‘imacca says:
    Tuesday, December 24, 2019 at 12:50 pm

    “Has Ms Thunberg made a practical difference in terms of a reduction in CO2 emissions?”

    Which question has zero relevance to the real world. But, i can see where it comes from. Seems to me to be a slight adaptation of the “but we only put out 1.3% of emissions so what difference does it make??”’

    False analogy. Thunberg operates in the political domain. The 1.3% emissions is from the scientific domain.

  11. “Huge public support levy on coal and gas to pay for climate impacts even before bushfires. Majority from all states and major parties support, including 57% Liberal and 53% Nationals voters. 62% support overall, only 22% opposed.”

    Would this survive the massive $100 million+ campaign of disinformation and outright lies that the fossil fuel industry and their media and political allies would unleash should any Government actually propose such a levy? The economy will collapse, you and everyone you know will lose their jobs and you’ll be devoured by a giant wombat (OK, made up the last one).

    There are parallels. The “Carbon tax” is one, also the reaction of the miners to the mining tax. Also poker machine pre-commitment. The clubs industry spent tens of millions telling us that all sport would end, that the economy depended upon poker machines and putting out ridiculous figures for the cost which were equivalent to fully replacing every poker machine in the country. All of this went mostly unchallenged.

  12. BW

    Yes but unlike some idiot propagandists are saying no one is demanding Qantas go out of business today.

    Not even Greta Thunberg who encourages people to use boats and trains instead of planes.

  13. Commissioner of the New South Wales Rural Fire Service Shane Fitzsimmons says he would put “very little store in anything the Volunteer Fire Fighters Association (VFFA) has to say,” due to the lack of “access to information about who they claim to represent, how many they represent, and how they operate”.

    Mr Fitzsimmons told Sky News the VFFA are “highly politically-charged, their leader is a failed political candidate” with unclear motivations.

    Mr Fitzsimmons said we cannot “take away from the extraordinary spirit that is volunteerism, underpinning all that is good in our society,” as it makes communities “so cohesive, valuable and precious”.

    “In my decades of service, volunteers don’t want payment, it doesn’t make them volunteers, and they have given me that message loud and clear,” he said.

    I’m sure he is right it’s a matter of pride for volunteers to protect their communities, but there are other ways of compensating them, as Albo (and others) have suggested.

    https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6117886635001

  14. In a nutshell. Good tweet from other day

    ⚡️ fleur ⚡️
    @fleurbi
    ·
    Dec 22
    NO, #ScottyfromMarketing, Australians don’t understand why you didn’t cancel a holiday during an unprecedented crisis. VOLUNTEER firefighters are working endlessly—giving up their LIVES, paid jobs, holidays, time with friends & family. You have given (up) NOTHING. #ScoMoMustGo

  15. “QANTAS could reduce its carbon footprint to zero/now quite simply: by grounding all its planes and sacking all its employees.”

    And you could make a difference by turning your computer off and saving some electricity.

    You’re worse than Whitlam, Thunberg and Abbott rolled together.

  16. guytaur:

    [‘I am hoping we might get an early Christmas present of two by elections. Both Chisholm and Kooyong could fall to progressives with this summer fresh in voters minds.’]

    Whilst admiring your optimism, I don’t think the Court of Disputed Returns will find against Josh on the question of whether he holds dual nationality. I think the Court will use similar criteria it applied when determining former senator Xenophon’s eligibility. And even in the off chance it did, Josh, in 2PP terms, won Kooyong easily – 55.7% and would win it comfortably again if the Court finds against him.

    As for Chisolm, I doubt it will find against Ms. Lui. In 2PP terms, she won Chisolm by 1090 votes. In determining whether the election corflutes were misleading, the Court may find they were, but determine that they were not so misleading as to influence the outcome of the seat. Moreover, IIRC, the AEC quite surprisingly argued that things were above board. It’s rather like the judicial proviso, where an appellate court may find that although there were irregularities in the conduct of a trial (eg, the failure to present an indictment in the presence of an accused), such is not so irregular as to find that a substantial miscarriage of justice ensued.

    I will, however, add the usual caveat: is can be fraught to predict the outcome of appeals. Anyway, in 80 minutes or so we’ll know.

  17. shellbell
    Fitzy entered the political end of the fray when he opined in front of a mike that NSW was fully prepared and fully resourced.
    Now he is going to have to come up with a rationale for why hey lost over 2000 buildings and millions of hectares

  18. Dr Darren Saunders
    @whereisdaz
    ·
    15h
    Unisex Toilets: Clear the diary
    Religious freedom: High Priority
    Needles in strawberries: Crisis

    Australia burning up with global warming: Whoa, no need to panic!

  19. “Greens campaigned against Labor and got the LNP in government.”

    Ummm well, they’re a different party, so they campagin for themselves.

    Again, When protestors fail to achieve their goal, that doesn’t mean they are to blame for the result. This is a very simple thing to understand. Clearly the people whom they opposed are to blame for whatever happened, as they’re the ones that did it.

  20. “False analogy. Thunberg operates in the political domain. The 1.3% emissions is from the scientific domain.”

    Nah BW. I dont think Climate Change response / mitigation is a topic where overall you can put things in neat boxes like “thats politics” and “thats science” and really reflect reality. To many feedbacks in the system.

    Which in some sense is a bummer because it makes it VERY difficult to get the messaging simple enough for the punters to get it and/or makes it easy for the RWFW Denialatti to come up with wRONg, but simple massages that do resonate with the punters. 🙁

  21. Astrobleme:, ‘Ummm well, they’re a different party, so they campagin for themselves.’

    They are so good they can campaign for both themselves and the LNP.

  22. I’ll say it again: had the Stop Adani convoy not occurred, the only difference in this alternate reality is that Labor would now be accusing the Greens of costing them the election because “you lazy bastards left us to do all the heavy lifting on the issue!”

    If self-pity and blame-shifting was chicken and beer, the ALP would be Homer Simpson.

  23. PeeBee says:
    Tuesday, December 24, 2019 at 1:06 pm

    …”Not Sure, You missed out the part where BW was called an ‘arsewipe’, but your list is comprehensive enough to prove my point”…

    I didn’t miss the bit where he was called an arsewipe PeeBee, and the reason I didn’t miss it is because the only place it happened is inside your mind.

  24. Not Sure, this is Quoll referring to BW.

    ‘Quoll says:
    Tuesday, December 24, 2019 at 7:27 am
    Attention seeking arsewipe mate of Smoko and Bolta out early. I wonder if it was nightmares of Greta that woke them?
    Disengenuous and faux debate and never ending BS, deserves all the abuse it gets in current circumstances. Same as SmoKo’

  25. The now common use of reticent instead of reluctant is really doing my head in.
    If I could find out which uneducated twerp started it, I’d… I’d…, well I’m reluctant to say in case I get arrested for it.

  26. [Fitzy entered the political end of the fray when he opined in front of a mike that NSW was fully prepared and fully resourced.
    Now he is going to have to come up with a rationale for why hey lost over 2000 buildings and millions of hectares]

    Bit of a leap of logic there, BW

  27. The fires here are by no means over. We just had a breakout 1.5km up the hill with bombers hitting it quickly before the trucks arrived.
    Rebekha Sharkie, SA Minister for Education, (local member John Gardner) and another MP from the fire area, Dan Cregan have teamed up in the Hills. They just came to see me about setting up BlazeAid operations HQ here ate the oval for three months. Unfortunately it wasn’t going to work out so after a bit of brainstorming another, potentially better, alternative was identified and off they went to try and pull it off.
    Anyway the reason to telling you this is that I think, in general, our politicians are good and well intentioned people who work for their electorates.

  28. A dangerous summer is unfolding. Hundreds of bushfires are burning, we’ve broken our hottest day on record – twice, and Eastern Australia is being gripped by a prolonged and devastating drought. A state of emergency has been declared in New South Wales over Christmas.

    We know it’s sometimes hard to explain the link between bushfires and climate change with your family and friends. Here’s a quick guide, backed by science, for how you can have a conversation about these issues.

    https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/explaining-bushfires-climate-change/

  29. In today’s “Courier Mail” there’s a full-page article devoted to scoring the Morrison Government. For a Murdoch rag, the results were unsurprising. Morrison, Dutton, Hunt, et al, were awarded an “A”; most others “Bs” or “Cs” save for poor old McCormack who got a “D”, presumably meaning “Dunce”. There was no real criticism of Morrison re. his carriage of the bush fire crisis. The article was quite pathetic.

    Then there was the “Letters” section, most praising Morrison and critical of those who’ve been critical of him. And I can’t recall where I read it, but apparently 1,500 FB messages have been removed from Morrison’s page, most likely by staffers who didn’t want to upset him. Very dangerous for a PM to surround himself with “Yes”men and women. Meanwhile, Dutton’s in the background waiting to strike.

  30. PeeBee,

    So nothing at all to do with last night’s discussion.

    A lot more practice in the art of manipulation is required before you will be the equal of your master.

  31. Simon Katich @ #238 Tuesday, December 24th, 2019 – 12:36 pm

    Discuss

    Nah, lets just shout at each other and howl at the moon.

    All the towers of ivory are crumbling
    And the swallows have sharpened their beaks
    This is the time of our great undoing….
    Heaven has denied us its kingdom
    The saints are all drunk and howling at the moon
    The chariots of angels are colliding

    And then there’s this:
    https://youtu.be/ZHh0V7UjVXI

    🙂

    Ship of Fools
    World Party
    We’re setting sail to the place on the map
    from which no one has ever returned
    Drawn by the promise of the joker and the fool
    by the light of the crosses that burned.
    Drawn by the promise of the women and the lace
    and the gold and the cotton and pearls
    It’s the place where they keep all the darkness you need.
    You sail away from the light of the world on this trip, baby.
    You will pay tomorrow
    You’re gonna pay tomorrow
    You will pay tomorrow
    Save me. Save me from tomorrow
    I don’t want to sail with this ship of fools. No, no
    Oh, save me. Save me from tomorrow
    I don’t want to sail with this ship of fools
    I want to run and hide right now
    Avarice and greed are gonna drive you over the endless sea
    They will leave you drifting in the shallows
    or drowning in the oceans of history
    Traveling the world, you’re in search of no good
    but I’m sure you’ll build your Sodom like you knew you would
    Using all the good people for your galley slaves
    as you’re little boat struggles through the warning waves, but you don’t pay
    You will pay tomorrow
    You’re gonna pay tomorrow
    You’re gonna pay tomorrow
    Save me. Save me from tomorrow
    I don’t want to sail with this ship of fools
    Save me. Save me from tomorrow
    I don’t want to sail with this ship of fools
    Where’s it comin’ from?
    Where’s it goin’ to now?
    It’s just a It’s just a ship of fools

  32. I’m sure there’s more than one PB partisan that secretly self identifies with Smoko and Bolta.

    The idiocy of further statements and obsession with Greta and others being too noisy today seems to just reinforce what a bunch of idiots some are.

    Any pretence at genuine debate here by partisans is as valid and transparent as Smoko listening and caring about the state of the country.

    A genuine discussion or debate is only worth it with those who want it and can shut their mouths long enough to listen to others.


  33. itsthevibe says:
    Tuesday, December 24, 2019 at 12:37 pm

    Let’s see: a series of comments with a singular focus on attacking the Greens (and, by implication, the ALP Left), with the Coalition mentioned only in passing?

    By the very same yardstick which s/he so gleefully applies to Rex and others, PeeBee is clearly a Menzies House troll!

    Labor left may have a policy position similar to the wordsmith seen on he Green’s web sight but to compare them to Greens is wrong on many levels.

    1)In Victoria Labor left may walk out of conferences, but they don’t deliberately disrupting them as the Greens have done.
    2)They don’t actively campaign against Labor.
    3)A vote for a Labor left candidate may be a vote for someone who will become a member, it is more than a protest vote.
    4)A vote for a Labor left candidate does not provide public funding for a anti Labor party.
    5) If Labor left get a policy position adopted and Labor can overcome the anti Labor parties it does stand a chance of becoming reality.

    I would classify Rex and Nath as sock puppets, the fact they are so hard to identify reflects the behavior of the Green supporters.

  34. I think Thunberg is an impressive person, and I have no problem at all with her speaking out and making her case in the forceful way that she does. I do admire her.

    However, talking about her role being that of “influencer” rings alarm bells for me simply because it fits neatly into the dysfunctional social-media-first world that we seem to live in now. That’s the world where clicking “like” on a post, or following someone, or retweeting something gets equated with action. *dusts hands* Awareness raised! Action taken! Job done!

    Awareness raising is only one small step, and it needs to translate very rapidly into a genuine political movement that changes the power dynamics of the countries – like Australia – that are currently derailing/sabotaging necessary action.

    But the success or failure of the politics is not down to Thunberg – she is doing what she can, and I applaud that.

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