Not a creature was stirring

Chisholm and Kooyong court ruling imminent; comparison of American and Australian political attitudes; and a merry Christmas to all.

At what’s normally a dull time for electoral news, the Federal Court has decided to beat Santa to the punch by announcing its judgement in the challenges to the Chisholm and Kooyong results at 2:15pm today. I’ll add a dedicated post when that happens, but for the time being, here’s the latest thread for general political discussion, it being long past time for a new one.

Two other items of news I can think to mention: the United States Studies Centre has published a report that compares survey results on political attitudes in Australia and the United States, which reaches the intuitive conclusions that Australians are both less conservative and less polarised by partisanship; and GhostWhoVotes offers a neat presentation of the states’ House of Representatives seat entitlements based on current population numbers, six months out from the final determination.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

782 comments on “Not a creature was stirring”

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  1. C@tmomma

    You have had one. Labor of course 🙂

    Chris Watson

    He was the first Prime Minister from the Australian Labour Party, and led the world’s first Labour Party government, indeed the world’s first socialist or social democratic government, at a national level.

    Watson attended the state school in Oamaru, North Otago, New Zealand until ten years of age when he left to become a rail nipper. Then after a period of helping on the family farm, at thirteen years of age he was apprenticed as a compositor at The North Otago Times, a newspaper run by prominent reformist politician William Steward, with the public affairs exposure augmenting his minor formal schooling. Following the death of his mother and the loss of his job, he migrated to Sydney in 1886 at nineteen years of age.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Watson

  2. Just further to my comment @9:37, I think that BW is arguing that Ms Thunberg’s intervention has been counterproductive. I can’t see it.

    * She has reached many of the unengaged, especially among the young, who may make a difference in the future.
    *She has annoyed a lot of right wing political and media figures, not a bad thing. Their sometimes unhinged attacks might hurt their side.
    * She can hardly be blamed for the failure of COP25. The forces of greed and stupidity are powerful.
    * Is she ‘dumbing down’ the message? Maybe, but so what? Outside of learned economic journals, has the Right ever put out anything, especially to the general public, that required an IQ greater than 70 to understand? Should Greta have talked about the interaction of greenhouse gas molecules with radiation of different wavelengths, atmospheric physics, thermodynamic? Those who are aren’t shifting any fixed beliefs.

  3. phoenixRED

    When did cognitive dissonance ever trouble an ignorant egotist like Trump? The fool actually believes in his own superiority.

  4. ‘Those beautiful letters will protect us!’ John Bolton mocked for belatedly criticizing Trump’s North Korea policy

    Former national security adviser John Bolton on Monday delivered a thinly veiled shot at President Donald Trump’s policy toward North Korea — and he was promptly buried by Twitter followers who hammered him for not testifying before the House of Representatives’ impeachment inquiry.

    Don’t worry, we have all those big beautiful letters to protect us.

    — Ruven27 (@Ruven27) December 23, 2019

    But they’re in love and Putin hasn’t given orders yet.

    Also, you should come forward with all you know.

    — A Little Trouble In Town | m (@angry_ohio) December 23, 2019

    That ship has sailed, John.

    If you really give a tinker’s damn about our Republic, you’ll testify in the Senate trial.

    — Karen (@kes1doc_karen) December 23, 2019

    The risk?

    You know exactly what that risk is, Ambassador Bolton.

    The risk is the uneducated, uneducable, mercurial, @realDonaldTrump, treating a nuclear NK the same way he dealt with the mob for NY building projects.

    Write a book and make $.
    Or be a patriot.
    You choose

    — Jean L.P. Jaurès (@larsp2740) December 23, 2019

  5. Watson attended the state school in Oamaru, North Otago

    Is that where they sell those deep fried local oysters?

    A kiwi once tried to argue with me that they had the best oysters in the world. I suggested that as kiwis feel the need to deep fry them, that tells you all you need to know.

  6. RFS Commissioner Shane Fitzimmons has reportedly ruled out compensation for volunteer firefighters. Perhaps this is where Morrison is getting his advice. However, Albanese says

    If someone has not had an income for a period of months because they have been fighting fires — and we met someone in Bilpin who had been fighting fires since September, every day — people who don’t have an income for a period of three months, it is unsustainable. Common-sense tells you that.

    Albanese said he wasn’t proposing a particular model for that compensation. It could be federal compensation like that provided to army reservists, or one-off payments, or compensation for those who have to close small businesses. “I’m trying to give the government some flexibility,” he said.

    But he said that the current bushfire crisis was not “business as usual” and may require an extraordinary response.

  7. Morning.

    With all the furore over the unsustainable situation for Firefighters with no income now would be a good time to raise concepts like a UBI or Federal Jobs Guarantee.

    It was a good presser by Albo this morning highlighting the issue of how do people survive with no income?

    I am hoping we might get an early Christmas present of two by elections. Both Chisholm and Kooyong could fall to progressives with this summer fresh in voters minds.

  8. Steve777
    Regarding BW comments about Greta, I agree entirely.
    BW has gotten out of bed in the mood to have an argument and hypocritically performs the same thing that BW(herself) is accusing of Greta.
    Sometimes BW you just slip off the radar.

  9. “I’m trying to give the government some flexibility,” he said.

    He is treating Morrison like a rational homo sapien instead of a cornered internecivus raptus.

  10. “In a way this emphasizes my point about Ms Thunberg’s practical impact to date: nothing, or perhaps even less than nothing. My assumption here is that ‘practical’ is a change in CO2 emissions.”

    no it doesn’t. Not in any way.

    What it does show is the way your logic works.
    This is the same logic you apply when you say that when people protest against something it makes leaders do the opposite.

    It’s very poor logic

  11. SK

    Very good politics.

    A sane comment from a rational human being. Making rejection be the extreme political act it would actually be.

    I thought it was an excellent position to put.

    The twisting and turning to protect that surplus is going to hurt the government. Including Tradies as a group to suffer will hurt the LNP. It helps when the truth and commonsense are on your side.

  12. With all the furore over the unsustainable situation for Firefighters with no income now would be a good time to raise concepts like a UBI or Federal Jobs Guarantee.

    Indeed. As a reason not to do it.

  13. I think that the issue for the Government with Climate Change is that one way or another they are in the pocket of coal interests. They will protect and promote the interests of the coal industry – mining, domestic use and export. I don’t know but I wouldn’t be surprised if actual corruption is involved. Certainly there is “softer” corruption via political donations and sinecures for former Ministers.

    Effective action on climate change is inimical to the interests of Coal and so is off the table for the Coalition until such time as the political pressure for action becomes overwhelming.

  14. SK

    Ah yes I forgot. Both those proposals are against the establishment economic orthodoxy.

    The same one that has no problems funding the military industrial complex. We never get asked how are you going to pay for that?

  15. Effective action on climate change is inimical to the interests of Coal and so is off the table for the Coalition until such time as the political pressure for action becomes overwhelming.

    That would be about 5 minutes after Sutherland Shire burns to the ground. And the Royal National Park near it.

  16. Ooooh, Morrison thinks he’s won this one, but it has been taken up by many others who are Australians.

    Scott Morrison @ScottMorrisonMP
    Indeed, as Jacqui joked with me yesterday, I’m not her PM, because she’s British, Boris Johnson is. But with local MP Andrew Gee, we made a decent pitch for her to become an Aussie yesterday. She & the other RFS volunteers have been doing an incredible job battling these blazes.

    Not sure Morrison’s clarification will help. Jacqui and #NotMyPrimeMinister are the top two trending topics on twitter in Australia this morning.

  17. @EddyJokovich
    ·
    22m
    More insider reports are starting to filter through that Morrison did actually go to New York to visit the new Pentecostal building. Morrison refuses to confirm or deny. So much for the surprise holidays for the girls! #auspol

  18. lizzie @ #117 Tuesday, December 24th, 2019 – 10:18 am

    Ooooh, Morrison thinks he’s won this one, but it has been taken up by many others who are Australians.

    Scott Morrison @ScottMorrisonMP
    Indeed, as Jacqui joked with me yesterday, I’m not her PM, because she’s British, Boris Johnson is. But with local MP Andrew Gee, we made a decent pitch for her to become an Aussie yesterday. She & the other RFS volunteers have been doing an incredible job battling these blazes.

    Not sure Morrison’s clarification will help. Jacqui and #NotMyPrimeMinister are the top two trending topics on twitter in Australia this morning.

    Jeez, they did the Oppo research on Jacqui at light speed, didn’t they?

  19. lizzie @ #118 Tuesday, December 24th, 2019 – 10:20 am

    @EddyJokovich
    ·
    22m
    More insider reports are starting to filter through that Morrison did actually go to New York to visit the new Pentecostal building. Morrison refuses to confirm or deny. So much for the surprise holidays for the girls! #auspol

    I never saw ‘the girls’ in any of the photos from Hawaii. Not one.

  20. C@tmomma @ #116 Tuesday, December 24th, 2019 – 10:17 am

    Effective action on climate change is inimical to the interests of Coal and so is off the table for the Coalition until such time as the political pressure for action becomes overwhelming.

    That would be about 5 minutes after Sutherland Shire burns to the ground. And the Royal National Park near it.

    Nonsense. Sure, that might (might!) make Smirko shit his pants about his electoral prospects … but if that happened the Liberals would just roll him and replace him with someone else who will continue to support coal. They have form.


  21. E. G. Theodore says:
    Monday, December 23, 2019 at 10:38 pm
    ….

    1 – Coal contracts are long term – the Indians will pay Australia the agreed price for the term of the contract (unless they breach). If they in addition impose a tariff on top of that price then Australia will still be paid the same and the Indians will have harmed only themselves.

    2 – If some special government power is used to terminate the contract (i.e. making the breach immune to remedy in Indian courts), the Indians have a coal fired power station, for which they need to find coal. Most obviously, they will get it domestically*, this will entrench the Indian domestic coal suppliers as a political force, and is likely to lead to India continuing to burn coal for hundreds of years. In contrast, Australian coal producers (as foreigners) can’t entrench themselves in the same way (though they could try ity on for a while), and India can thus wind down its coal burning without interference, as an when viable alternatives arrive.

    I do agree that supply measures (synchronised to demand measures) are needed to achieve a fast enough wind down. These need to occur in the Indian market (in this case), for example by the introduction of renewable supplies. AU government could for example use foriegn aid budget to build renewable supply in India.

    * Perhaps sourced from the “Indian coal Mafia” so it burns poorly and is even more polluting?

    Exactly.
    foreign aid budget to build renewable supply in India -tick
    restricting supply results in a bigger mess in India – tick

    The little protect party is making it more difficult to deal with the consequences in Australia. The Greens really are a disgrace.

  22. frednk @ #124 Tuesday, December 24th, 2019 – 10:27 am

    foreign aid budget to build renewable supply in India -tick
    restricting supply results in a bigger mess in India – tick

    The little protect party is making it more difficult to deal with the consequences in Australia. The Greens really are a disgrace.

    Psst! Your coal and Greens obsessions are both showing.

  23. G

    Ah yes I forgot. Both those proposals are against the establishment economic orthodoxy.

    I dont mind it being unorthodox. I worry that it can be taken advantage of – of the unintended consequences.

  24. C@t

    I never saw ‘the girls’ in any of the photos from Hawaii. Not one.
    ________________________________________

    That’s because he is so determined to keep them out of the public eye to have a normal and typical upbringing, including two overseas family holidays in one year.

  25. “@Catmomma says:
    Tuesday, December 24, 2019 at 9:44 am
    poroti,
    It’s time we had a Kiwi for Australian PM! They do it better.”

    Hmmm, a reverse management/ people takeover of West Island, by North and South Island? I guess there goes Section 44. If a great opportunity to remove the colonial Union Jack from the flag.
    Besides pending Lizzie’s retirement, Charles can keep the remaining parts of England, Falklands, Gibraltar, William might want to try Canada, and Harry can come downunder?
    Who knows, may be the Greens/ Liebor can bypass the Liars and connect with the National/ Country Party, as in a Green/ Red/ Brown [modern fuel mix]ition of national unity …

  26. @EddyJokovich
    ·
    22m
    More insider reports are starting to filter through that Morrison did actually go to New York to visit the new Pentecostal building. Morrison refuses to confirm or deny. So much for the surprise holidays for the girls! #auspol

    At a morning presser yesterday, Morrison outright denied he’d been in NY. Demanded to know the source of the reports. Ridiculed them in emphatic terms. Laughed out loud at them. So probably false reports.

    What I am interested in is how he got to stay at a US armed-services-only resort in Hawaii. This would take some organizing, probably through Trump or senior US administrators.


  27. nath says:
    Tuesday, December 24, 2019 at 10:55 am

    How typical of Labor stooges to ruin a good thing and start talking about Morrison’s children! Morons.

    The Liberal sock puppets are a little sensitive today. The mask is coming down.

  28. [More insider reports are starting to filter through that Morrison did actually go to New York to visit the new Pentecostal building. Morrison refuses to confirm or deny. So much for the surprise holidays for the girls! #auspol

    Presumably the asking of Morrison which enabled him to confirm or deny is public information.

  29. The whole #fireMorrison episode demonstrates one thing: he’s actually crap at spin, and can’t handle pressure or criticism.

    Pity he didn’t get any of either during the election campaign.

  30. How typical of Labor stooges to ruin a good thing and start talking about Morrison’s children! Morons.

    Finding out if he went to NY however is fair game. He went on and on about family holidays…. so if he spent a few days away from family in NY then that is worth taking shots at. Questioning the lack of photos of kids is a little too blunt for my liking.

  31. Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, December 24, 2019 at 6:43 am

    …”One (reasonable) response was that Ms Thunberg has mobilized millions of (young) people in a global movement”…

    That was me, but who exactly appointed you the arbiter of what is, or is not, a reasonable response to stuff you said?

  32. The failure at COP25 illustrates the importance of winning and exercising power. The voices that hope for environmental action in Australia fight against each other. As long as this persists they will never secure power and Australia will stand as a force against action in the environment.

    This is the long and the short of it all. We face an existential crisis. But this is secondary to political jostling by anti-Labor so-called ‘progressives’.

    Greta is an icon for political change. She will be defamed by the Right…by the reactionaries. They will use her too, in the same way as they use everything and everyone else. It’s impossible not to admire her. And it’s impossible not to see her as a figure in the tragedy in which we are living.

  33. Morrison seems to believe that if he responds to any requests he is “giving way to panic”?

    I think he is a Hare in the headlights, and has not a clue what to do!.
    It’s a problem way beyond him.

  34. Simon Katich
    says:
    Tuesday, December 24, 2019 at 11:07 am
    How typical of Labor stooges to ruin a good thing and start talking about Morrison’s children! Morons.
    Finding out if he went to NY however is fair game. He went on and on about family holidays…. so if he spent a few days away from family in NY then that is worth taking shots at. Questioning the lack of photos of kids is a little too blunt for my liking.
    ___________________________________
    Exactly. Fine to criticise him for using ‘family holiday’ but avoid ‘the girls’.

  35. Greta is the face of a movement wanting change. How effective she is can be judged by the number of silly old men attacking her.

    It surprises me the Greens aren’t attacking her yet, an environmental movement that is having some success. That will show up the greens total lack of results from their Labor attacking Green stunts. That will never do.

  36. I am now very confused.
    Is Albo’s “feeding the firies” setup better or worse than Scomo’s “All the Canadians are pleased to be here” photo opportunity?

    Should I now support Abbott’s “Look at me riding my bike. All my fund raising efforts are funded by the taxpayer” instead?

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