Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

Another modest Coalition lead from the second poll in a new-look Newspoll series, which also finds Scott Morrison rated well for strength, vision and experience, but higher than he’d like for arrogance. Also featured: a quick early look at the ANU’s deep and wide post-election survey.

The second Newspoll conducted under the new regime of online polls conducted by YouGov records the Coalition with a 52-48 lead, out from 51-49 a fortnight ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 42%, Labor is steady on 33%, the Greens are down one to 11% and One Nation is steady on 5%. Both leaders’ personal ratings are improved after weak results last time, with Scott Morrison up two on approval to 45% and down four on disapproval to 48%, and Anthony Albanese up two to 40% and down four to 41%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 46-35 to 48-34.

Respondents were also asked to rate the leaders according to nine attributes, eight positive and one negative. Morrison scored higher than Albanese for the experience (68-64), decisiveness and strength (60-51) and having a vision for Australia (60-54), while Albanese had the edge on caring for people (60-55). There was essentially nothing to separate them on understanding the major issues (57-56 to Albanese), likeability (56-56), being in touch with voters (50-49 to Albanese) and trustworthiness (49-48). However, Morrison’s worst result was his 58-40 lead on the one negative quality that was gauged – arrogance.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1503. The Australian’s paywalled report of the results is here.

In other poll news, a uComms poll (apparently minus the ReachTEL branding now) for the Courier-Mail ($) suggests Queensland’s embattled Deputy Premier, Jackie Trad, is in grave danger of losing her seat of South Brisbane to the Greens. The poll shows the Greens on 29.4%, Labor on 27.5% and the Liberal National Party on 26.6%, with 10.4% undecided. Labor is credited with a 52-48 lead on respondent-allocated preferences, but this may flatter Labor given the LNP’s announcement that they would direct preferences against them. No field work date is provided that I can see, but the sample size was 700. The deficiencies of automated phone polls in inner city seats were noted by Kevin Bonham, among others.

UPDATE: In better poll news still, the results from the post-election Australian Election Study survey are available in all their glory, courtesy of the Australian National University. You can view the ANU’s overview of the findings here, but the real fun of this resource is that it allows you to cross-tabulate responses to 3143-respondent survey across a dizzying range of variables. The survey also includes demographic weightings that presume to correct for the biases introduced by the survey process. The survey also addresses a long-standing criticism by including a component of 968 respondents who also completed the 2016 survey, allowing for study of the changing behaviour of the same set of respondents over time.

Rest assured you will be hearing a great deal more about the survey going forward, but for the time being, here’s one set of numbers I have crunched for starters. This shows the primary vote broken down into three age cohorts, and compares them with the equivalent figures from the 2016 survey. This produces some eye-catching results, particularly in regard to a probably excessive surge in support for the Coalition among the middle-aged cohort – mostly at the expense of “others”. By contrast, the young cohort swung heavily to the left, while the boomers were relatively static.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

580 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

Comments Page 9 of 12
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  1. frednk @ #401 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 5:09 pm


    bakunin says:
    Monday, December 9, 2019 at 4:54 pm

    GG,

    What that fails to account for is that Galilee Basin coal is the equivalent grade to Indonesian coal.
    Adani intend to use Carmichael coal as a direct substitute for Indonesian coal rather than an upgrade to higher quality, cleaner coal.

    Indonesian coal is nothing special, both are better than Indian coal.

    There’s dirty coal and even dirtier coal. Both are contributing to the destruction of our communities.

    But, hey, Albo and ScoMo reckon it’s ok to profit from the destruction.

  2. Why doesn’t Labor say it supports “Mining” rather than coal? Covers far more enterprises and includes coal for the worried.

  3. Lenore Taylor
    @lenoretaylor
    ·
    11m
    so we had a review and then did something completely different….Public service review did not look at cutting federal departments, official says

    No surprise that Morrison never takes any notice of review recommendations. Just uses them as cover.

    The departments also highlighted the importance of the public service’s role in delivering advice to government, in marked contrast to Morrison’s view that its primary role was service delivery.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/09/public-service-review-did-not-look-at-cutting-federal-departments-official-says?CMP=share_btn_tw

  4. Jackol @ #349 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 3:33 pm

    The primary focus has to be on ensuring that actual emissions are kept down, and the best tools we have to do that are demand-side. Changing/diluting the political focus to the supply side – to coal mines – is a distraction from the important stuff that needs to be done.

    You mean important stuff like opening new coal mines?

    Sorry, but your argument has been explicitly examined and rebutted by this report. Demand side policies have been shown to be not sufficient to address global warming. They will not bring down our consumption of fossil fuels by enough to meet the targets we have agreed to meet. This is essentially “the gap” – and it is one that supply-side arguments can help address.

    You can’t accept it, because it runs contrary to what you need to believe to make your nonsensical arguments about opening new coal mines credible.

    But this says something about you and your arguments, not about the report.

  5. Andrew Catsaras
    @AndrewCatsaras
    ·
    2h
    What have the Federal & NSW Govs done to alert its citizens to the health issues associated with the toxic smoke blanketing much of the state, the ash falling in water supplies and the mental anguish of having to deal with these fires, both directly and indirectly? No leadership.

  6. As well as exporting jobs do the greens support this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/15/bob-brown-rebukes-tasmanian-windfarm-project-as-the-new-franklin-dam

    Do the Greens supports bob browns call to slow the revolution down:
    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/bob-brown-calls-for-moderation-on-renewable-energy-proposals

    Seems RDN supports Bob Brown, is it true?
    https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/07/hypocrite-greens-defend-wind-farm-nimbys/

    Come on get it all out of your systems. Labor should ………………………………………………

  7. lizzie @ #407 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 5:28 pm

    Why doesn’t Labor say it supports “Mining” rather than coal? Covers far more enterprises and includes coal for the worried.

    Yes, I wondered the same thing … until I realized that it is explicitly the fossil-fuel industries that Labor is binding themselves to support. The other mining industries are largely irrelevant to this fight.

    Coal is what we mostly talk about, because it is both the worst polluter and the quickest and easiest to replace, but it includes gas and oil as well. These other fossil fuels are essentially “hiding” behind coal, hoping to go unnoticed. In much the same way as the Labor partisans here use the Greens as a hobgoblin to try and hide the deep and widening rifts within their own party.

  8. Those sensible, rational people who lack the supreme arrogance required to decry the consensus science of climate change now have no other option federally but to hitch their wagon to the Greens. Well done Albanese, for creating the worst iteration of the Labor party in living memory all in just six months.

  9. Bellwether @ #417 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 6:07 pm

    Those sensible, rational people who lack the supreme arrogance required to decry the consensus science of climate change now have no other option federally but to hitch their wagon to the Greens. Well done Albanese, for creating the worst iteration of the Labor party in living memory all in just six months.

    Somebody’s cross. Have a chocolate and cheer up.


  10. Bellwether says:
    Monday, December 9, 2019 at 6:07 pm

    Those sensible, rational people who lack the supreme arrogance required to decry the consensus science of climate change now have no other option federally but to hitch their wagon to the Greens. Well done Albanese, for creating the worst iteration of the Labor party in living memory all in just six months.

    The Greens should be happy, Labor did what Labor thinks it should, the Greens are now free to take the votes promised if Labor did what the Greens thought they should.

    And because Labor is aiming to deal with this be encouraging renewables, remember vote 1 Liberals. Will not matter the Greens surge will see the Greens win.

  11. Has Rex ever bagged the LNP?

    I asked him before the election and he never came up with one comment he had written on this blog where he bagged the LNP.

    All you need to know about Rex.

  12. Greensborough Growler: this working Australian is losing her trust in the federal ALP more and more every single week.

  13. About 100 countries at UN climate talks challenge Australia’s use of carryover credits

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/dec/09/about-100-countries-at-un-climate-talks-challenge-australias-use-of-carryover-credits

    Australia’s plan to use an accounting loophole to meet its international emissions targets has been formally challenged at UN climate talks, with about 100 countries wanting the practice banned under the Paris agreement.

    Delegates from developing countries led by Belize and Costa Rica have introduced a ban on using carryover credits from the Kyoto protocol into the text of the rulebook for the Paris climate agreement, which is being debated at a meeting in Madrid.
    :::
    The introduction of a ban on what are described as “Kyoto units” into the negotiating was the clearest sign that countries that had expressed opposition to their use were determined to follow through. Some observers at the talks described the clause as an “anti-Australia” option.
    :::
    Bill Hare, the chief executive of Climate Analytics in Berlin and a long-time adviser to developing countries at climate talks, said using carryover credits was opposed by three major negotiating blocs – the alliance of small island states, the least developed countries group and the independent alliance of Latin America and the Caribbean – as well as Canada, Switzerland and Norway.

  14. Lizzie
    It is not a surprise really because the Liberals seem intent on implementing some of or all of the IPA wishlist but it has been done step by step process instead of coming out with one large reform package.

  15. Mexicanbeemer

    Yes, it’s rather amusing that the list has been public at least since Abbott started to achieve it, but it seems to fly under the radar.

  16. Paddy Manning

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2019/09/2019/1575866690/morrison-top

    Certainly, Labor appears utterly divided on climate and energy with former environment minister Peter Garrett warning on the weekend that the “true believers are dying”, while the member for Paterson, Meryl Swanson, complains that coalminers shouldn’t have to transition to renewables and “what used to become a worthwhile well-paid job has somehow become dirty and I resent people who refer to coal as dirty”. Somehow?

    When Labor folds like that, Joel Fitzgibbon style, it becomes a laughing stock. After Albanese told 2GB he supported coal exports this morning, Resources Minister Matt Canavan took the opportunity to yank Labor’s chain, telling Sky News Australia what the Labor leader needs to say on his tour of regional Queensland this week: “They say now they support the export of coal. I haven’t heard Anthony Albanese say three simple words: I support Adani.”

    Labor can never win a contest where it tries to out-deny the Coalition. Why even try?

  17. Stuart Robert is being ‘martyred for his faith’ again.

    Stuart Robert is being pressured to resign after he was seen baptising tourists
    He took a trip to Israel to lead a Treasures of Grace Tour with his Metro Church
    But the trip was not taken on a parliamentary break and he took family leave
    A Labor insider is calling for Mr Robert to resign as he would rather ‘gallivant’

    The Australian Christian Lobby (ACL) also rushed to defend Mr Robert.

    I don’t like any of this. 🙁

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7769987/Calls-Stuart-Robert-resign-footage-emerges-showing-BAPTISING-tourists-Israel.html

  18. Finland – Multiparty governance – the way of the future

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/09/finland-anoints-sanna-martin-34-as-worlds-youngest-serving-prime-minister

    Having emerged as Finland’s largest party in the April election, the Social Democrats can appoint one of their own to the post of prime minister in the Nordic nation of 5.5m people.
    :::
    Four other parties in Finland’s coalition government are also led by women: the Left Alliance is led by Li Anderson, 32; the Green League is led by Maria Ohisalo, 34; the Centre Party is led by Katri Kulmuni, 32; and Anna-Maja Henriksson, 55, is head of the Swedish People’s party.
    :::
    The centre-left coalition, which took office just six months ago, has agreed to continue with its political programme stressing a shift to carbon neutrality, after Rinne announced he was stepping down at the demand of the Centre Party.


  19. Joanne Murphy says:
    Monday, December 9, 2019 at 6:21 pm

    Greensborough Growler: this working Australian is losing her trust in the federal ALP more and more every single week.

    Will we see the Green surge in the next poll. Exporting Jobs for a Green stunt should be a real winner don’t you think?

  20. Lizzie
    I think that is because the list comes off as too far fetched to be taken seriously and the Liberals have been smart enough to be really indirect by only doing bits here and there but Morrison seems to be more upfront about it than Abbott was.

  21. frednk @ #430 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 6:36 pm

    Will we see the Green surge in the next poll. Exporting Jobs for a Green stunt should be a real winner don’t you think?

    Didn’t you see the “Green surge” in the current poll? Read William’s contribution at the top of this thread. Take particular note of the 18-34 demographic:

    LNP -5.7%, Greens +5.7%
    ALP +1.3, Others -1.3

    So the Greens are taking votes from the LNP, whereas the ALP are taking votes from One Nation and their ilk.

    Pretty damning statistic, isn’t it?

    In fact, in all demographics, the ALP barely moved the meter.

    Ask yourself “why” …

  22. Player One @ #435 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 6:47 pm

    frednk @ #430 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 6:36 pm

    Will we see the Green surge in the next poll. Exporting Jobs for a Green stunt should be a real winner don’t you think?

    Didn’t you see the “Green surge” in the current poll? Read William’s contribution at the top of this thread. Take particular note of the 18-34 demographic:

    LNP -5.7%, Greens +5.7%
    ALP +1.3, Others -1.3

    So the Greens are taking votes from the LNP, whereas the ALP are taking votes from One Nation and their ilk.

    Pretty damning statistic, isn’t it?

    In fact, in all demographics, the ALP barely moved the meter.

    Ask yourself “why” …

    That’s obviously your demographic.

  23. PeeBee @ #419 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 6:16 pm

    Has Rex ever bagged the LNP?

    I asked him before the election and he never came up with one comment he had written on this blog where he bagged the LNP.

    All you need to know about Rex.

    Comments, not worth the virtual paper they are written on, without a doubt.

    You know, you’ve got to wonder with some of these Victorian Lefties, whether they ever leave the state and visit the other 90% of Australia to see what the real world is like.

  24. Greensborough Growler @ #437 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 6:50 pm

    Player One @ #435 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 6:47 pm

    frednk @ #430 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 6:36 pm

    Will we see the Green surge in the next poll. Exporting Jobs for a Green stunt should be a real winner don’t you think?

    Didn’t you see the “Green surge” in the current poll? Read William’s contribution at the top of this thread. Take particular note of the 18-34 demographic:

    LNP -5.7%, Greens +5.7%
    ALP +1.3, Others -1.3

    So the Greens are taking votes from the LNP, whereas the ALP are taking votes from One Nation and their ilk.

    Pretty damning statistic, isn’t it?

    In fact, in all demographics, the ALP barely moved the meter.

    Ask yourself “why” …

    That’s obviously your demographic.

    Newspoll actually found some people aged 18-34 willing to do their pointless poll!?!

  25. ———
    Vote Lib. See how that improves your lot.
    ———
    Ah, the Chris Bowen tactic?
    Surely there was a better response to Joanne’s concerns.

    I get the ALP want to be loudly consistent now regarding coal exports. But that sort of attitude to ALP voters worried it spells a complete backdown on domestic emissions reductions and the environment will see the ALP primary dwindle further.

  26. frednk @ #412 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 5:50 pm

    As well as exporting jobs do the greens support this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/15/bob-brown-rebukes-tasmanian-windfarm-project-as-the-new-franklin-dam

    Do the Greens supports bob browns call to slow the revolution down:
    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/bob-brown-calls-for-moderation-on-renewable-energy-proposals

    Seems RDN supports Bob Brown, is it true?
    https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/07/hypocrite-greens-defend-wind-farm-nimbys/

    Come on get it all out of your systems. Labor should ………………………………………………

    I bet the Greenies will do their usual, he doesn’t represent us schtick again. 😆

  27. ———
    LNP -5.7%, Greens +5.7%
    ALP +1.3, Others -1.3
    So the Greens are taking votes from the LNP, whereas the ALP are taking votes from One Nation and their ilk.
    ———
    I don’t think that’s how it works.

  28. Simon Katich @ #441 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 6:55 pm

    ———
    Vote Lib. See how that improves your lot.
    ———
    Ah, the Chris Bowen tactic?
    Surely there was a better response to Joanne’s concerns.

    I get the ALP want to be loudly consistent now regarding coal exports. But that sort of attitude to ALP voters worried it spells a complete backdown on domestic emissions reductions and the environment will see the ALP primary dwindle further.

    When you know that none of what you have just said is true about Labor. So who’s driving people away from Labor again by spreading Fake News about Labor?

  29. Simon Katich @ #441 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 6:55 pm

    I get the ALP want to be loudly consistent now regarding coal exports. But that sort of attitude to ALP voters worried it spells a complete backdown on domestic emissions reductions and the environment will see the ALP primary dwindle further.

    Yup. But honestly, who really cares about the election … as long as the correct Labor faction is in the ascendancy within the party? 🙁

  30. Seems an odd venture for Rupert’s house climate science denier….

    Maybe he’s a Green at heart?

    “The Australian’s environment editor, Graham Lloyd, planned an eco-retreat in the Peruvian jungle where a shaman would use plants with hallucinogenic properties to treat illness and depression, a Melbourne court has heard.

    Lloyd (also named in the case as Efrem Lloyd) and his partner Vanessa Hunter are being sued by their former friend and business partner Cheryl Conway for $600,000 she invested between 2013 and 2015 to establish the Lupunaluz Foundation and build the Lupunaluz Retreat in Peru.

    The federal court heard on Monday in the opening argument from Conway’s barrister, Harry Forrester, that Conway had become friends with Lloyd and Hunter after meeting them in 2012. They developed a plan for the retreat, with Conway to invest money, while Lloyd and Hunter would provide the 129-hectare land they owned in Peru for the eco-resort, Forrester said.“

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/dec/09/the-australian-environment-editor-graham-lloyd-retreat-shaman-hallucinogens-court-told

  31. Simon Katich @ #445 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 6:56 pm

    ———
    LNP -5.7%, Greens +5.7%
    ALP +1.3, Others -1.3
    So the Greens are taking votes from the LNP, whereas the ALP are taking votes from One Nation and their ilk.
    ———
    I don’t think that’s how it works.

    Those figures you use are based on the ANU study which measured what was happening in the May election. Labor improved their vote in the 18-34 demographic and probably capture 90% of the Greens preferences. So, it makes sense for Labor to focus on mortgage belt going forward and be up front about promoting jobs and security as they attempt to rebuild trust with the people they need to win the next Election.

  32. Why are you all arguing here? What purpose does it serve?

    PB has become an endless feedback loop on the “environment”, everyone is treading water & waiting for something to happen. I’m beginning to think that if a progressive blog dedicated to political discussion can’t find a way out then there’s no chance for the general population.

    We need someone or something to go bump.

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