The second Newspoll conducted under the new regime of online polls conducted by YouGov records the Coalition with a 52-48 lead, out from 51-49 a fortnight ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 42%, Labor is steady on 33%, the Greens are down one to 11% and One Nation is steady on 5%. Both leaders’ personal ratings are improved after weak results last time, with Scott Morrison up two on approval to 45% and down four on disapproval to 48%, and Anthony Albanese up two to 40% and down four to 41%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 46-35 to 48-34.
Respondents were also asked to rate the leaders according to nine attributes, eight positive and one negative. Morrison scored higher than Albanese for the experience (68-64), decisiveness and strength (60-51) and having a vision for Australia (60-54), while Albanese had the edge on caring for people (60-55). There was essentially nothing to separate them on understanding the major issues (57-56 to Albanese), likeability (56-56), being in touch with voters (50-49 to Albanese) and trustworthiness (49-48). However, Morrison’s worst result was his 58-40 lead on the one negative quality that was gauged – arrogance.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1503. The Australian’s paywalled report of the results is here.
In other poll news, a uComms poll (apparently minus the ReachTEL branding now) for the Courier-Mail ($) suggests Queensland’s embattled Deputy Premier, Jackie Trad, is in grave danger of losing her seat of South Brisbane to the Greens. The poll shows the Greens on 29.4%, Labor on 27.5% and the Liberal National Party on 26.6%, with 10.4% undecided. Labor is credited with a 52-48 lead on respondent-allocated preferences, but this may flatter Labor given the LNP’s announcement that they would direct preferences against them. No field work date is provided that I can see, but the sample size was 700. The deficiencies of automated phone polls in inner city seats were noted by Kevin Bonham, among others.
UPDATE: In better poll news still, the results from the post-election Australian Election Study survey are available in all their glory, courtesy of the Australian National University. You can view the ANU’s overview of the findings here, but the real fun of this resource is that it allows you to cross-tabulate responses to 3143-respondent survey across a dizzying range of variables. The survey also includes demographic weightings that presume to correct for the biases introduced by the survey process. The survey also addresses a long-standing criticism by including a component of 968 respondents who also completed the 2016 survey, allowing for study of the changing behaviour of the same set of respondents over time.
Rest assured you will be hearing a great deal more about the survey going forward, but for the time being, here’s one set of numbers I have crunched for starters. This shows the primary vote broken down into three age cohorts, and compares them with the equivalent figures from the 2016 survey. This produces some eye-catching results, particularly in regard to a probably excessive surge in support for the Coalition among the middle-aged cohort – mostly at the expense of “others”. By contrast, the young cohort swung heavily to the left, while the boomers were relatively static.
Labor making all the right noises to regain the trust of working Australians.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-mps-back-albanese-s-coal-export-embrace-20191209-p53i2k
George Bailey expediting the commencement of his new role as selector
https://live.cricket.com.au/match/2405/46374/tasmanian-tigers-men-vs-south-australia-marsh-sheffield-shield-2019-20/scorecard
frednk @ #401 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 5:09 pm
There’s dirty coal and even dirtier coal. Both are contributing to the destruction of our communities.
But, hey, Albo and ScoMo reckon it’s ok to profit from the destruction.
Greensborough Growler @ #402 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 5:09 pm
Labor logic.
shellbell @ #400 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 5:08 pm
Never thought I’d say Albanese is a coward.
DM
We play it for our grandkids (and ourselves) whenever the grandkids come over.
Why doesn’t Labor say it supports “Mining” rather than coal? Covers far more enterprises and includes coal for the worried.
No surprise that Morrison never takes any notice of review recommendations. Just uses them as cover.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/09/public-service-review-did-not-look-at-cutting-federal-departments-official-says?CMP=share_btn_tw
This is what Australian industry needs.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/09/windfarms-drive-fall-in-wholesale-energy-price-with-lower-bills-forecast-for-2020
We do not need the Greens trying to stuff up the revolution
Jackol @ #349 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 3:33 pm
You mean important stuff like opening new coal mines?
Sorry, but your argument has been explicitly examined and rebutted by this report. Demand side policies have been shown to be not sufficient to address global warming. They will not bring down our consumption of fossil fuels by enough to meet the targets we have agreed to meet. This is essentially “the gap” – and it is one that supply-side arguments can help address.
You can’t accept it, because it runs contrary to what you need to believe to make your nonsensical arguments about opening new coal mines credible.
But this says something about you and your arguments, not about the report.
As well as exporting jobs do the greens support this:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/15/bob-brown-rebukes-tasmanian-windfarm-project-as-the-new-franklin-dam
Do the Greens supports bob browns call to slow the revolution down:
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/bob-brown-calls-for-moderation-on-renewable-energy-proposals
Seems RDN supports Bob Brown, is it true?
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/07/hypocrite-greens-defend-wind-farm-nimbys/
Come on get it all out of your systems. Labor should ………………………………………………
lizzie @ #407 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 5:28 pm
Yes, I wondered the same thing … until I realized that it is explicitly the fossil-fuel industries that Labor is binding themselves to support. The other mining industries are largely irrelevant to this fight.
Coal is what we mostly talk about, because it is both the worst polluter and the quickest and easiest to replace, but it includes gas and oil as well. These other fossil fuels are essentially “hiding” behind coal, hoping to go unnoticed. In much the same way as the Labor partisans here use the Greens as a hobgoblin to try and hide the deep and widening rifts within their own party.
@Rex Douglas
Sometimes I think Anthony Albanese is a 56 year old Aussie version of Joe Biden.
Coal exports will be around for some time yet as China seeks to ramp up their requirements.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-change-china-coal/china-coal-fired-power-capacity-still-rising-bucking-global-trend-study-idUSKBN1XU07Y
Those sensible, rational people who lack the supreme arrogance required to decry the consensus science of climate change now have no other option federally but to hitch their wagon to the Greens. Well done Albanese, for creating the worst iteration of the Labor party in living memory all in just six months.
Bellwether @ #417 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 6:07 pm
Somebody’s cross. Have a chocolate and cheer up.
Bellwether says:
Monday, December 9, 2019 at 6:07 pm
Those sensible, rational people who lack the supreme arrogance required to decry the consensus science of climate change now have no other option federally but to hitch their wagon to the Greens. Well done Albanese, for creating the worst iteration of the Labor party in living memory all in just six months.
The Greens should be happy, Labor did what Labor thinks it should, the Greens are now free to take the votes promised if Labor did what the Greens thought they should.
And because Labor is aiming to deal with this be encouraging renewables, remember vote 1 Liberals. Will not matter the Greens surge will see the Greens win.
Has Rex ever bagged the LNP?
I asked him before the election and he never came up with one comment he had written on this blog where he bagged the LNP.
All you need to know about Rex.
Greensborough Growler: this working Australian is losing her trust in the federal ALP more and more every single week.
About 100 countries at UN climate talks challenge Australia’s use of carryover credits
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/dec/09/about-100-countries-at-un-climate-talks-challenge-australias-use-of-carryover-credits
Joanne Murphy @ #421 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 6:21 pm
Vote Lib. See how that improves your lot.
Lizzie
It is not a surprise really because the Liberals seem intent on implementing some of or all of the IPA wishlist but it has been done step by step process instead of coming out with one large reform package.
Here’s something that needs to be promoted.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1203883390472245250
Mexicanbeemer
Yes, it’s rather amusing that the list has been public at least since Abbott started to achieve it, but it seems to fly under the radar.
Paddy Manning
https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2019/09/2019/1575866690/morrison-top
Stuart Robert is being ‘martyred for his faith’ again.
The Australian Christian Lobby (ACL) also rushed to defend Mr Robert.
I don’t like any of this. 🙁
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7769987/Calls-Stuart-Robert-resign-footage-emerges-showing-BAPTISING-tourists-Israel.html
So GG, were you Bowen’s political advisor?
Finland – Multiparty governance – the way of the future
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/09/finland-anoints-sanna-martin-34-as-worlds-youngest-serving-prime-minister
Joanne Murphy says:
Monday, December 9, 2019 at 6:21 pm
Greensborough Growler: this working Australian is losing her trust in the federal ALP more and more every single week.
Will we see the Green surge in the next poll. Exporting Jobs for a Green stunt should be a real winner don’t you think?
Lizzie
I think that is because the list comes off as too far fetched to be taken seriously and the Liberals have been smart enough to be really indirect by only doing bits here and there but Morrison seems to be more upfront about it than Abbott was.
Interesting Drum tonight. Pretty much rubbishing the Gov over renewables.
On above, except for some goofy bloke.
frednk @ #430 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 6:36 pm
Didn’t you see the “Green surge” in the current poll? Read William’s contribution at the top of this thread. Take particular note of the 18-34 demographic:
LNP -5.7%, Greens +5.7%
ALP +1.3, Others -1.3
So the Greens are taking votes from the LNP, whereas the ALP are taking votes from One Nation and their ilk.
Pretty damning statistic, isn’t it?
In fact, in all demographics, the ALP barely moved the meter.
Ask yourself “why” …
Greensborough Growler @ #422 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 6:22 pm
Or Green.
Greensborough Growler @ #422 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 6:22 pm
People are doing just that, you idiot.
Player One @ #435 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 6:47 pm
That’s obviously your demographic.
C@tmomma @ #436 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 6:48 pm
Nah!
As Billy Hughes might say, “You’ve got to draw a line somewhere”!
PeeBee @ #419 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 6:16 pm
Comments, not worth the virtual paper they are written on, without a doubt.
You know, you’ve got to wonder with some of these Victorian Lefties, whether they ever leave the state and visit the other 90% of Australia to see what the real world is like.
Greensborough Growler @ #437 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 6:50 pm
Newspoll actually found some people aged 18-34 willing to do their pointless poll!?!
———
Vote Lib. See how that improves your lot.
———
Ah, the Chris Bowen tactic?
Surely there was a better response to Joanne’s concerns.
I get the ALP want to be loudly consistent now regarding coal exports. But that sort of attitude to ALP voters worried it spells a complete backdown on domestic emissions reductions and the environment will see the ALP primary dwindle further.
C@tmomma @ #440 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 6:53 pm
That you can make such a comment on a psephological site … is … well, kind of amusing …
frednk @ #412 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 5:50 pm
I bet the Greenies will do their usual, he doesn’t represent us schtick again. 😆
———
LNP -5.7%, Greens +5.7%
ALP +1.3, Others -1.3
So the Greens are taking votes from the LNP, whereas the ALP are taking votes from One Nation and their ilk.
———
I don’t think that’s how it works.
Simon Katich @ #441 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 6:55 pm
When you know that none of what you have just said is true about Labor. So who’s driving people away from Labor again by spreading Fake News about Labor?
Simon Katich @ #441 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 6:55 pm
Yup. But honestly, who really cares about the election … as long as the correct Labor faction is in the ascendancy within the party? 🙁
Simon Katich @ #444 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 6:56 pm
Well, not exactly perhaps … but prove otherwise! 🙂
Seems an odd venture for Rupert’s house climate science denier….
Maybe he’s a Green at heart?
“The Australian’s environment editor, Graham Lloyd, planned an eco-retreat in the Peruvian jungle where a shaman would use plants with hallucinogenic properties to treat illness and depression, a Melbourne court has heard.
Lloyd (also named in the case as Efrem Lloyd) and his partner Vanessa Hunter are being sued by their former friend and business partner Cheryl Conway for $600,000 she invested between 2013 and 2015 to establish the Lupunaluz Foundation and build the Lupunaluz Retreat in Peru.
The federal court heard on Monday in the opening argument from Conway’s barrister, Harry Forrester, that Conway had become friends with Lloyd and Hunter after meeting them in 2012. They developed a plan for the retreat, with Conway to invest money, while Lloyd and Hunter would provide the 129-hectare land they owned in Peru for the eco-resort, Forrester said.“
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/dec/09/the-australian-environment-editor-graham-lloyd-retreat-shaman-hallucinogens-court-told
Simon Katich @ #445 Monday, December 9th, 2019 – 6:56 pm
Those figures you use are based on the ANU study which measured what was happening in the May election. Labor improved their vote in the 18-34 demographic and probably capture 90% of the Greens preferences. So, it makes sense for Labor to focus on mortgage belt going forward and be up front about promoting jobs and security as they attempt to rebuild trust with the people they need to win the next Election.
Why are you all arguing here? What purpose does it serve?
PB has become an endless feedback loop on the “environment”, everyone is treading water & waiting for something to happen. I’m beginning to think that if a progressive blog dedicated to political discussion can’t find a way out then there’s no chance for the general population.
We need someone or something to go bump.