British election polling in five charts

A quick and dirty guide to what pollsters seem to be telling us a week out from an unpredictable British election.

With a week to go until Britain’s election, polls continue to credit the Conservatives with a lead over Labour which, although substantial, is not so great that they can lock in a parliamentary majority. Furthermore, the trend of polling is somewhat in favour of Labour, with the Conservatives apparently having sucked dry the short-lived insurgency of the Brexit Party, while Labour continues to pick off support from the floundering Liberal Democrats. This is illustrated clearly enough in the poll trend chart below, which combines the work of nine polling series.

While all the pollsters have the Conservatives well ahead, the size of the lead covers a wide range, from as little as 6% by the reckoning of the most recent poll from BMG to as much as 15% from Opinium. Given the assurance that the Scottish National Party will dominate north of the border, the former end would certainly be weak enough to leave the Conservatives short of the formidable hurdle that either major party must clear if they are to win enough seats in England to score a majority. The next chart shows local area regression trends for each pollster’s reckoning of the Conservative lead (a little more on the methodology is explained later in the post).

Labour optimists are hanging on to the notion of a pro-Labour “youthquake” that will up-end the pollsters’ turnout models. The importance of the age distribution of the voting population is forcefully illustrated by the chart below, which shows voting intention by age cohort (off very small sub-samples) from a recent poll by ICM Research.

Pollsters are varying quite substantially as to age distribution, as illustrated in the next chart, which has been derived from the weighting data provided as standard from pollsters in the UK (in Australia we can only imagine such things). Kantar looms as an outlier in its expectation that fully 49% of voters will be 55 and over, compared with just 19% for the 18-to-34 cohort. The other pollsters range from 25% to 29% for 18-to-34 and 37% to 43% for 55-plus. None of this has any obvious bearing on the pollsters’ leanings, perhaps with the exception of ICM, whose young age profile has been reflected by relatively modest Conservative leads.

Then there’s their modelling of the population by vote in the 2016 Brexit referendum, which I’m slightly puzzled by in that there is dramatic variation in the size of the various pollster’s “did not vote” cohort (which appears not to be related to their age distributions). In the cases of YouGov, ComRes, Survation and Deltapoll, I had to infer this total from what was left over after “leave” and ”remain” were removed from the total, which may be causing me to miss subtlety. Whatever the case, let the peculiarity of Kantar again be noted in that it proposes a majority “remain” population, despite having a age distribution that skews old. Conversely, Opinium’s weighting to “leave” may explain its apparent lean to the Conservatives.

Now for a quick introduction to the British polling fraternity. First up, the following table shows bias adjustments that have been used to standardise the poll trend measures at the top of this post. These were achieved my comparing their results to a straightforward trend measure of all the polls entered into the model (142 polls from nine pollsters). The results are actually fairly modest as these things go, contrary to the impression given by the range of results in the “Conservative lead trend by pollster”.

All these polls are of the online panel variety, with two exceptions: Survation, a phone poll, and Ipsos MORI, which despite being a big name has only published one poll since the campaign began. Survation is also unique in that it includes Northern Ireland in its polling, whereas the others stick to England, Scotland and Wales.

The pollsters are variable in how they structure their voting intention responses, particularly in relation to the Brexit Party, which is not running in most Conservative-held seats. Before that they had to struggle with which minor parties to include among the initial list of responses and which as a follow-up for those who chose “other party”. It is routine for the Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru to be included as topline response options in Scotland and Wales respectively.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

109 comments on “British election polling in five charts”

Comments Page 2 of 3
1 2 3
  1. “Yep, the Greens Statement will be voiced through Prime Minister Johnson’s lips.

    Brilliant. Absolutely brilliant.”

    ***

    Since you relentlessly attack the left, you probably would think that outcome would be “brilliant” wouldn’t you. The truth disguised as sarcasm.

    Anyway…

    I for one wish ALL the parties of the left the very best in the UK election and hope they have the numbers between them to form a gov. If I was involved in one of the parties I’d be encouraging supporters to vote tactically in seats to get rid of the Tories. What the UK really needs is preferential voting though.

  2. So whether it’s the media’s fault or something else, what’s to be done on the left? Corbyn has pretty much “perfect” left policies, he’s had plenty of time in the opposition role and he’s loved by the activist class.

    Looks like the latest polling isn’t offering any comfort.

  3. “So whether it’s the media’s fault or something else, what’s to be done on the left? Corbyn has pretty much “perfect” left policies, he’s had plenty of time in the opposition role and he’s loved by the activist class.

    Looks like the latest polling isn’t offering any comfort.”

    ***

    The real left is going well. We need to keep fighting for what we believe in. The last thing parties of the left should do is lurch to the right and/or install unrepresentative right wing leaders.

    The polling wasn’t offering the Coalition much comfort before the Australian election either. We will just have to wait and see how accurate they are in the UK this time around. The upwards trend towards Labour is similar to what Corbyn was able to achieve last time though and is encouraging. Who knows though?

  4. ‘Firefox says:
    Saturday, December 7, 2019 at 1:21 pm

    “Yep, the Greens Statement will be voiced through Prime Minister Johnson’s lips.

    Brilliant. Absolutely brilliant.”

    ***

    Since you relentlessly attack the left, you probably would think that outcome would be “brilliant” wouldn’t you. The truth disguised as sarcasm.’

    I would prefer the Lib Dems to win. In the grand sweep of European history, they are the only sane Party left in the field. But they won’t win. Given that, I would never piss away a vote on the Greens. The Binary choice is quite clear Johnson or Corbyn.
    You would choose pissing your vote up the wall.
    I would choose Corbyn.

  5. Firefox at 8.30am: I’m really getting off the point here, but I’m pretty sure Andy Barr is Right faction. It’s just that the ACT as a whole is progressive, so even someone from the Right faction there can look like someone from Left faction in (for example) Queensland.

  6. The yougov poll on the debate was typically self-contradictory…

    headline result was 52-48 to Boris, yet on the question of who performed ‘well’ over ‘badly’, Corbyn led 69 compared to 62

    go figure…

  7. “I would prefer the Lib Dems to win.”

    ***

    Sounds about right lol. You’re a right winger, just like they are.

    No, I just told you I would encourage tactical voting. It would depend on which electorate I was in and who had the best chance of beating the Tories. That could be the Greens, Labour, Plaid, SNP, etc… See mate, unlike you, I’m not politically blind to all other options outside the party I currently vote for. The UK Labour party under Corbyn is one that I would have no problem voting for. It puts your ALP to shame.

  8. Given the ridiculous first post the post voting system in the UK, I wish Labour, Lib Dems and the Greens would have selected candidates strategically to maximise the anti Tory (and anti Brexit) vote. If Labour and the Greens agreed not to run in the sixty most likely LDP seat targets, and the LDP only agreed to run against Labour in the seats that were either the safest of either Tory or Labour strongholds then Boris really would be in a world of pain. If Labour and the LDP could be persuaded to not run against Greens in their most likely (1 – 5) seats in return for the Greens generally not contesting the rest of England then I’d say Boris would be stuffed. The payoff for both the LDP and Greens would be for Labour to immediately enact preferential voting (or a second round run off vote like they do in France and elsewhere) if elected for future elections.

    Contrary to what Boer is saying the Lib Dems have been the party acting most irresponsibly: setting up an anti Labour wedge that dirty Dickie Denatalie would have been proud of on Brexit. Ironically, Corbyn’s nuanced position on Brexit seems to have gained traction – at the expense of the LDP, who have crashed in the polls. Clearly when it came to the crunch they misread the room. Unfortunately the anti Tory vote is still split, but hopefully that split is only in regions and seats that won’t count for much.

    Here is a guardian article which dives deep into the regional variations and polling numbers. Things actually look relatively positive for Labour. Fingers crossed.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/06/tories-victory-stats-tell-different-story-labour-youthquake

  9. “Given the ridiculous first post the post voting system in the UK, I wish Labour, Lib Dems and the Greens would have selected candidates strategically to maximise the anti Tory (and anti Brexit) vote. ”

    —–

    The Lib Dems’ behaviour makes it obvious that they don’t *really* care about whether Britain exits the EU. They just see opposing Brexit as a means to their political ends of winning a few more parliamentary seats.

  10. The Lib Dems are still tainted from aligning themselves with the Conservatives and voting for their harsh austerity measures. They’ve understandably tried to distance themselves from that past but people who’re doing it tough aren’t likely to forget so easily. They’ll have no alternative but to align themselves with the parties of the left this time though if they really care about remaining in the EU.

    @Andrew, yes, tactical voting is what’s required. Whoever has the best chance of defeating the Tories in a particular seat should get the support. It is indeed ridiculous that people have to do this and vote for parties they may not actually support at all (say lefties having to support a Lib Dem against a Tory). It’s easy for a Green to support Corbyn’s Labour, and likewise easy for a Corbyn supporter to back the Greens, but it’s not so easy for the left to get behind a party of the right such as the Lib Dems. Better option than the Tories in those seats where it’s just between the two of them but you’d be voting for them through gritted teeth I reckon.

    I do find it somewhat amusing that some here from the Labor Right are trying to jump on the Corbyn bandwagon all of a sudden though. Better late than never, I suppose. But you can bet if he loses they’ll have the knives out for him straight away to try and replace him with another one of their unrepresentative right wing Labor/Labour leaders.

  11. New poll puts Westminster in hung parliament territory

    A new poll has seen a surge in support for the Labour Party – potentially putting Westminster in hung parliament territory.

    The shock ComRes polling for Remain United shows Labour jumping four points compared to the start of the week, jumping to 36% of support.

    Using data from polling for the Sunday Telegraph the analysis puts Tory support has stagnated at 42% – putting the gap between the two parties at just 6%.

    The Lib Dems have lost one point of support, sitting at 11%, while support for the Brexit Party grew by one point to 4%.

    The Green support is currently at 2%.

    Labour’s 36% of support is the highest level for Jeremy Corbyn’s party since April.

    It remains to be seen if other polls reflect this trend ahead of polling day on Thursday, but Gina Miller says the polling demonstrates how tactical voting can wipe out any chance of a Boris Johnson majority.

    Miller said: “With just six days to go to 12th December, and the Conservatives unlikely to squeee any further, if Labour continue to squeeze the Lib Dem votes in areas where tactical voting means they can win, we are definitely heading for a hung parliament.

    “Based on these findings, Remain and soft Leave voters should be very energised knowing that their votes have the power to defeat a Tory majority.”

    https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/comres-poll-on-general-election-1-6414145

  12. That ComRes poll apparently didn’t ask for candidates by seat. Perhaps Labour would be on 36% if not for tactical voting by Labour people to try to elect Lib Dems and SNP.

    Anyway, today’s polls have little change from last week. The polls may be herding.

    Britain Elects @britainelects
    ·
    1h
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+1)
    LAB: 33% (-)
    LDEM: 13% (+1)
    BREX: 3% (1)
    GRN: 3% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 05 – 06 Dec
    Chgs. w/ 03 Dec
    ·
    1h
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 44% (-1)
    LAB: 33% (+1)
    LDEM: 11% (-4)
    BREX: 3% (-)

    via @DeltapollUK
    Chgs. w/ 30 Nov

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 46% (-)
    LAB: 31% (-)
    LDEM: 13% (-)
    GRN: 3% (+1)
    BREX: 2% (-)

    via @OpiniumResearch, 04 – 06 Dec
    Chgs. w/ 29 Nov

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 41% (-1)
    LAB: 33% (+1)
    LDEM: 12% (-)
    BREX: 3% (-)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @SavantaComRes, 04 – 05 Dec (this was the normal ComRes poll)
    Chgs. w/ 03 Dec

  13. Four seat polls. LDs a point ahead in a Tory seat, and Labour within range in two Tory seats if enough LDs vote Labour. But a very bad poll for Labour in a strong Leave Welsh seat.

    Britain Elects @britainelects
    ·
    3h
    Putney, constituency voting intention:

    CON: 38% (-6)
    LAB: 35% (-6)
    LDEM: 24% (+12)
    GRN: 2% (-)

    via @DeltapollUK, 26 Nov – 01 Dec
    Chgs. w/ GE2017

    3h
    Guildford, constituency voting intention:

    LDEM: 41% (+17)
    CON: 40% (-15)
    LAB: 11% (-8)
    IND: (A. Milton): 7% (+7)

    via @DeltapollUK , 28 Nov – 02 Dec
    Chgs. w/ GE2017

    Southport, constituency voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+4)
    LAB: 35% (+2)
    LDEM: 22% (-4)

    via @DeltapollUK, 02 – 06 Dec
    Chgs. w/ GE2017

    Wrexham, constituency voting intention:

    CON: 44% (-)
    LAB: 29% (-20)
    PC: 10% (+5)
    BREX: 9% (+9)
    LDEM: 6% (+3)
    GRN: 2% (-)

    via @Survation, 27 – 30 Nov
    Chgs. w/ GE2017

  14. Panelbase poll in Scotland not great news for the SNP.

    Britain Elects @britainelects
    ·
    22m
    Scottish Westminster voting intention:

    SNP: 39% (-1)
    CON: 29% (+1)
    LAB: 21% (+1)
    LDEM: 10% (-1)

    via @Panelbase, 03 – 06 Dec
    Chgs. w/ 22 Nov

  15. On those Scottish polls, Tories will pick up at least 2 Scottish seats from SNP. I also understand that there is some real Tory confidence about both Midlothian and East Lothian, as both seats will see each of Labor, SNP and Tories at over 30pc of vote.

  16. I would have expected that tactical voting is one reason why the Lib Dems are falling – there are more seats where the demands of tactical voting puts downward pressure on their vote than helps them.(noting that Adrian appears to have seen polling that contradicts this). This isn’t to deny that Lib Dem campaigning has been inept (and the Labour social media campaign against them has been remarkable).

    Still the elephant in the room is that the Conservative vote has gone from strength to strength while cheerily disregarding the normal conventions of campaigning like turning up for interviews and, well, honesty. Yet another demonstration that large chunks of the population don’t care about being lied to, provided its ‘their’ side doing the lying.

  17. there are so many unknowns……. the Tories have been a mess in government….. now will the voters reward them with a majority? who will the snp take votes off…. labor or the tories…. who loses the most seats? how much is the brexit leaning to influence votes would labor voters turn away on this issue and reward the conservatives? will people tactically vote even through this has not been organised by the non Tory parties? will there be an increased youth turnout?
    Is Mr Corbyn really unpopular or is that just the conservative media?

  18. Mick Quinlivin,

    Most of your questions have actually been answered.

    Do you not read any media or just ignore what you don’t agree with?

  19. “ The Lib Dems’ behaviour makes it obvious that they don’t *really* care about whether Britain exits the EU. They just see opposing Brexit as a means to their political ends of winning a few more parliamentary seats.”

    Shades of our brilliant and pure as driven snow Greens then … oops. I digress …

  20. mick quinlivan @ #70 Sunday, December 8th, 2019 – 2:21 pm

    ….. will people tactically vote even through this has not been organised by the non Tory parties? ….

    There are reports of some organisation of the nonTories campaigning to bugger past loyalties and focus at the job on hand – Tories out.

    On Friday, former Tory and Labour prime ministers John Major and Tony Blair attended a rally on tactical voting. Describing the decision to leave the EU as the worst foreign policy choice in his lifetime, Major said: “Tribal loyalty has its place. It can be good and honourable. But sometimes you need to vote with your head and your heart. For your country and your future. This is such a time.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/07/calls-grow-to-stop-boris-johnson-with-tactical-voting-as-race-tightens

  21. ‘Big A Adrian says:
    Sunday, December 8, 2019 at 3:58 pm

    Is this the point of peak stupid yet? The Simon Wiesenthal Centre has labelled Corbyn’s Labour the “biggest global threat to jews”.

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1203428925868785666?s=19

    Thats right, not Iranian nukes, not Global jihad, not any number of holocaust supporting white supremacists – but a left wing progressive party who stands specifically on a platfrorn of anti-racism.

    No words really.’

    Sharkjumping abounds.

  22. Do you mean this?
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jumping_the_shark

    “Jumping the shark is the moment when something that was once popular, but that no longer warrants the attention it previously received, makes an attempt at publicity, which only serves to highlight its irrelevance. ”

    if so, then I heartily agree to that description in relation to the Simon Wiesenthal Centre

  23. Tactical voting guide

    On current trends, voters will deliver a contradictory verdict on Thursday night. The Conservatives are on course for an overall majority in parliament – but most voters will back parties that want to block an early Brexit. If turnout is similar to last time, the 14 to 15 million who will support the Conservatives or Brexit party will be outnumbered by the 16 to 17 million who will vote Labour, Liberal Democrat, Green, SNP or Plaid Cymru.

    Tactical voting is not new, but it has a special significance this week. If it happens in enough constituencies, it can ensure that the two-million majority opposed to Boris Johnson’s Brexit plan is reflected in the new House of Commons.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/08/tactical-voting-guide-2019-keep-tories-out-remain-voter-general-election

  24. Big A Adrian,

    Is this the point of peak stupid yet? The Simon Wiesenthal Centre has labelled Corbyn’s Labour the “biggest global threat to jews”.

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1203428925868785666?s=19

    Thats right, not Iranian nukes, not Global jihad, not any number of holocaust supporting white supremacists – but a left wing progressive party who stands specifically on a platfrorn of anti-racism.

    No words really.

    This is tear worthy.

    Today I talked to a Labor MP about their experience as a young Jewish refugee from Europe. Most grandparents murdered by the far right in Europe during WWII.

    It is beyond comprehensible that something like the Simon Wiesenthal Centre wants to see Boris Johnson and his anglophile nuts running the joint.

  25. Bucephalus……………………… none of my questions have been answered………….. they can only be answered at the election…… that is why the result is uncertain. Also Northern Irelands parliamentary delelegation may vary.

  26. “Is this the point of peak stupid yet? The Simon Wiesenthal Centre has labelled Corbyn’s Labour the “biggest global threat to jews”. ”

    That would come as quite a disappointment to the leaders of Hamas. All those terrorist attacks for nothing.

    Though speaking of peak stupid, all those still voting in the UK in support of pro-Brexit candidates and parties, when the lies behind Brexit have been exposed for all to see, they must surely be in the running for the title.

  27. So, the pollsters over-sample the oldies, the oldies strongly prefer the Conservatives…. no wonder the pollsters could predict well the vote for the Conservatives in 2017 but underestimated the vote for Labour by up to 8%….

    Conclusion: The UK general election is far closer than the Murdoch crappy press likes to tell the people of the UK. Tactical voting will do the trick for Labour or, at least, for a coalition of Progressive-remainers (Labour, Lib Dem, SNP) if Labour can’t manage an absolute majority of seats.

    Brace for a big surprise on Thursday!

  28. “I might be wrong but I am expecting a significant Conservative victory”…

    All suggests that you will be proven wrong. The Conservatives have got a lower percentage of votes than in 2017 according to the polls and this time around they will be confronted with tactical voting in at least 50 seats by Progressive parties:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/08/tactical-voting-guide-2019-keep-tories-out-remain-voter-general-election

    Even Boris Johnson is in danger of losing his seat through tactical voting!

    The UK first-past-the-post system strongly favours the Conservatives, tactical voting is the best strategy to destroy that Conservative advantage.

  29. “I do hope Corbyn doesn’t resign after he loses again.”…. Why would somebody just elected as PM resign?… In the war of assumptions, the red-faced ones will be those who are assuming wrongly…. 🙂
    Let’s wait and see…. In the meantime, to those who vote at this election: VOTE TACTICALLY!

  30. “Is Mr Corbyn really unpopular or is that just the conservative media?”… Of course the conservative media (including our well known Murdoch) have invented “Corbyn unpopular” (“Corbyn anti-Semite”, “Corbyn fence-sitter on Brexit”, “Corbyn dangerous Marxist”, etc.)… and through their means of communication they spread their invention… repeated it constantly, across the media… and presto! The tale is absorbed into reality by parasitising the mind of a number of voters…..

    That reminds me…. oh yes, that reminds me of the “unelectable Shorten”!…. The trick did work in Australia, admittedly. Will it work in the UK against Corbyn and the Labour party?…. I can only hope that it won’t!… To cheer yourself up, notice that the combined Conservative vote (Conservatives + Brexit party) is lower than 50%, whereas the combined Progressive vote (Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Green, Plaid Cymru) is higher than 50% in the opinion polls…. Tactical voting will transform that into seats and therefore a defeat for the Conservatives.

  31. Alpo: “So, the pollsters over-sample the oldies, the oldies strongly prefer the Conservatives…. no wonder the pollsters could predict well the vote for the Conservatives in 2017 but underestimated the vote for Labour by up to 8%….
    Conclusion: The UK general election is far closer than the Murdoch crappy press likes to tell the people of the UK. ”

    I’m really hoping you are right, but I’ll be frankly astonished if the UK pollsters haven’t learned from the lessons of last election. That said, I linked a very interesting twitter thread earlier from a guy who reckons the pollsters are (erroneously) weighting their data off a flawed base from the 2016 referendum turnout – which heavilly favours the conservative/leave faction – ie old farts. He makes an interesting case for why this is flawed. Here it is again in case you missed it…

    Could ALL the polls be wrong?I've been looking at the data – and the short answer is yes.We've had two elections (2015 and 2017) where pretty much every pollster was wrong.So, what fresh polling disasters await us in 2019? Let's find out…A thread, with data.1/15— Dr Moderate (@centrist_phone) December 5, 2019

    You are also placing far too much trust in tactical voting. It many help in a handful of seats, but I highly doubt it will turn the tide of the overall result. I think labour’s only realistic hope is that the polls are once again significantly underestimating the labour vote.

  32. The Tory lead blows out in Survation, normally a fairly decent poll for Labour. A BMG poll also has a swing to the Tories. I think that’s that, it’s pretty much over.

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 45% (+3)
    LAB: 31% (-2)
    LDEM: 11 (-)
    BREX: 4% (+1)
    GRN: 2% (-2)

    via @Survation, 05 – 07 Dec
    Chgs. w/ 30 Nov

    Britain Elects @britainelects
    ·
    4h
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 41% (+2)
    LAB: 32% (-1)
    LDEM: 14% (+1)
    GRN: 4% (-1)
    BREX: 4% (-)

    via @BMGResearch, 04 – 06 Dec
    Chgs. w/ 29 Nov

  33. I said this before in an article: Labour’s only good chance to win this election was to have the economic crisis of a no-deal Brexit BEFORE the election. From a political tactics perspective, it would have made sense for Labour NOT to try to stop a no-deal Brexit if the hard right Tories wanted it so badly.

  34. “it would have made sense for Labour NOT to try to stop a no-deal Brexit if the hard right Tories wanted it so badly.”

    ***

    Maybe from the point of view of winning some votes. It didn’t make sense to allow a hard Brexit to occur though simply because of how much damage it would do to people’s lives.

  35. “I think that’s that, it’s pretty much over.”

    ***

    The only poll that counts is the one on election day!

    Tired old cliché but it’s true, especially considering how wrong so many polls have been of late.

    It’s not over, it’s just getting started!

  36. The single biggest difference in the polls seems to be that Johnson is leading from out front on Brexit and Corbyn is leading from behind on two bob each way.
    After three years of faffing around, perhaps folk want it done and dusted.
    One way or the other.
    But not both ways for another four years.

  37. The irony of course is that Corbyn’s two bob each way proposal will likely get it all “done and dusted” (one way or another) much faster than Boris’ brexit will. Of course its well nigh impossible to convince the voters of that though.

Comments Page 2 of 3
1 2 3

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *