Winners and losers

Reading between the lines of the Liberal Party’s post-election reports for the federal and Victorian state elections.

In the wake of Craig Emerson and Jay Weatherill’s federal electoral post-mortem for Labor, two post-election reviews have emerged from the Liberal Party, with very different tales to tell – one from the May 2019 federal triumph, the other from the November 2018 Victorian state disaster.

The first of these was conducted by Arthur Sinodinos and Steven Joyce, the latter being a former cabinet minister and campaign director for the conservative National Party in New Zealand. It seems we only get to see the executive summary and recommendations, the general tenor of which is that, while all concerned are to be congratulated on a job well done, the party benefited from a “poor Labor Party campaign” and shouldn’t get too cocky. Points of interest:

• It would seem the notion of introducing optional preferential voting has caught the fancy of some in the party. The report recommends the party “undertake analytical work to determine the opportunities and risks” – presumably with respect to itself – “before making any decision to request such a change”.

• Perhaps relatedly, the report says the party should work closer with the Nationals to avoid three-cornered contests. These may have handicapped the party in Gilmore, the one seat it lost to Labor in New South Wales outside Victoria.

• The report comes out for voter identification at the polling booth, a dubious notion that nonetheless did no real harm when it briefly operated in Queensland in 2015, and electronic certified lists of voters, which make a lot more sense.

• It is further felt that the parliament might want to look at cutting the pre-poll voting period from three weeks to two, but should keep its hands off the parties’ practice of mailing out postal vote applications. Parliament should also do something about “boorish behaviour around polling booths”, like “limiting the presence of volunteers to those linked with a particular candidate”.

• Hints are offered that Liberals’ pollsters served up dud results from “inner city metropolitan seats”. This probably means Reid in Sydney and Chisholm in Melbourne, both of which went better than they expected, and perhaps reflects difficulties polling the Chinese community. It is further suggested that the party’s polling program should expand from 20 seats to 25.

• Ten to twelve months is about the right length of time out from the election to preselect marginal seat candidates, and safe Labor seats can wait until six months out. This is at odds with the Victorian party’s recent decision to get promptly down to business, even ahead of a looming redistribution, which has been a source of friction between the state and federal party.

• After six of the party’s candidates fell by the wayside during the campaign, largely on account of social media indiscretions (one of which may have cost the Liberals the Tasmanian seat of Lyons), it is suggested that more careful vetting processes might be in order.

The Victorian inquiry was conducted by former state and federal party director Tony Nutt, and is available in apparently unexpurgated form. Notably:

• The party’s tough-on-crime campaign theme, turbo-charged by media reportage of an African gangs crisis, failed to land. Too many saw it as “a political tactic rather than an authentic problem to be solved by initiatives that would help make their neighbourhoods safer”. As if to show that you can’t always believe Peter Dutton, post-election research found the issue influenced the vote of only 6% of respondents, “and then not necessarily to our advantage”.

• As it became evident during the campaign that they were in trouble, the party’s research found the main problem was “a complete lack of knowledge about Matthew Guy, his team and their plans for Victoria if elected”. To the extent that Guy was recognised at all, it was usually on account of “lobster with a mobster”.

• Guy’s poor name recognition made it all the worse that attention was focused on personalities in federal politics, two months after the demise of Malcolm Turnbull. Post-election research found “30% of voters in Victorian electorates that were lost to Labor on the 24th November stated that they could not vote for the Liberal Party because of the removal of Malcolm Turnbull”.

• Amid a flurry of jabs at the Andrews government, for indiscretions said to make the Liberal defeat all the more intolerable, it is occasionally acknowledged tacitly that the government had not made itself an easy target. Voters were said to have been less concerned about “the Red Shirts affair for instance” than “more relevant, personal and compelling factors like delivery of local infrastructure”.

• The report features an exhausting list of recommendations, updated from David Kemp’s similar report in 2015, the first of which is that the party needs to get to work early on a “proper market research-based core strategy”. This reflects the Emerson and Weatherill report, which identified the main problem with the Labor campaign as a “weak strategy”.

• A set of recommendations headed “booth management” complains electoral commissions don’t act when Labor and union campaigners bully their volunteers.

• Without naming names, the report weights in against factional operators and journalists who “see themselves more as players and influencers than as traditional reporters”.

• The report is cagey about i360, described in The Age as “a controversial American voter data machine the party used in recent state elections in Victoria and South Australia”. It was reported to have been abandoned in April “amid a botched rollout and fears sensitive voter information was at risk”, but the report says only that it is in suspension, and recommends a “thorough review”.

• Other recommendations are that the party should write more lists, hold more meetings and find better candidates, and that its shadow ministers should pull their fingers out.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,754 comments on “Winners and losers”

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  1. nath:

    [‘I notice that GG never bites back at males. He whimpers away from me.’]

    Consider yourself blessed. Peg can look after herself – and ably. GG has been contributing since the year dot, the politics, the nuance of this blog seems to have passed you by.

  2. Player One @ #2697 Sunday, December 8th, 2019 – 8:12 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2690 Sunday, December 8th, 2019 – 8:00 pm

    Who have you rallied to your cause today, champ?

    So … how many have you converted to your faith?

    You lose every day because you can’t deal with alternative opinions. So, you think splurting holier than though assertions is actually action. Dream a little dream!

    No, we win every day. Because we have taken personal responsibility. Why, we can even look our teenage kids in the eye!

    What about you? Still pretending that doing nothing except voting Labor will be enough to save the planet?

    Which of us is the fool?

    I love your assumed assumption that your truth is the only truth going around.

    I tell my kids all sides of the argument. How about you?

    I acknowledge you taking responsibility for the lack of action on Climate Change. But, it’s not all your fault.

    Cheers.

  3. Itza
    Interesting
    During the day, the smoke.
    During the night the gigantic conurbations of light (including the well known Inner Urbs) that are emitting the CO2 that, in part, has been heating the planet and creating fire opportunities.

  4. Greensborough Growler @ #2700 Sunday, December 8th, 2019 – 8:24 pm

    I tell my kids all sides of the argument. How about you?

    Oh? How many sides do you believe there are to this argument? Perhaps you would care to summarize the case against anthropogenic global warming for us? I reckon after today we could all do with a chuckle or two.

    I acknowledge you taking responsibility for the lack of action on Climate Change. But, it’s not all your fault.

    Well, at least you are consistent. If you cannot win by reason, you always resort to this kind of juvenile “no, I’m not – you are!” stuff.

    But boy, don’t you get het up when someone dishes it back to you!


  5. Tristo says:
    Sunday, December 8, 2019 at 8:06 pm

    I’m not being smart ass, I am interested.
    You seem to be into revolution and not so much into trying to defend the Greens ‘indefensible behavior.
    Are you into the socialist alliance?

  6. Player One @ #2702 Sunday, December 8th, 2019 – 8:30 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2700 Sunday, December 8th, 2019 – 8:24 pm

    I tell my kids all sides of the argument. How about you?

    Oh? How many sides do you believe there are to this argument? Perhaps you would care to summarize the case against anthropogenic global warming for us? I reckon after today we could all do with a chuckle or two.

    I acknowledge you taking responsibility for the lack of action on Climate Change. But, it’s not all your fault.

    Well, at least you are consistent. If you cannot win by reason, you always resort to this kind of juvenile “no, I’m not – you are!” stuff.

    But boy, don’t you get het up when someone dishes it back to you!

    So teaching your children to consider all aspects of an argument is a bad thing. What a lovely cult you live in.

    BTW, If if was any more relaxed, I’d be asleep.

    How about you?

  8. GG:

    [‘As I said earlier, WB has permitted the blog to become a Greens posting board. His choice.’]

    Please stop the crap. I mean, it be could equally be argued that this site’s a Labor sounding board.

  9. @frednk

    I am not a revolutionary or even a Marxist. Although I do consider the Greens to be a Social Liberal party as a whole. However could I see a revolution maybe happening in Australia given the right circumstances? I can’t see why it can’t happen.

  10. Tristo @ #2706 Sunday, December 8th, 2019 – 8:53 pm

    @frednk

    I am not a revolutionary, however could a revolution happen in Australia given the right circumstances? I can’t see why it can’t happen.

    Also, in Britain since the Global Financial Crisis and Tory Austerity, there has been something of a revival in Marxism, especially among the young.

    No one would turn up.

    All the participants would be playing cricket on every Saturday.

  11. Tristosays:
    Sunday, December 8, 2019 at 8:53 pm

    … However could I see a revolution maybe happening in Australia given the right circumstances? I can’t see why it can’t happen.

    Now that’s hilarious.

  13. Based on the BBA Index I don’t see either a revolution or a third world Australia happening any time soon. Aussies are too busy buying expensive 4WD’s and driving down North Street to gain access to the BI beach tracks.

  16. I don’t see a revolution because we have the one thing that the French and Russians didn’t have before their revolutions, the ballot box. The other thing is that we have a fairly good standard of living with a targeted welfare program of payments and concessions. Tax has never been popular, the 1381 Peasant revolt was against tax and tax along with trade and the industrial revolution played a part in the French Revolution.

  24. GG
    It is worst than that because Wooldridge is considered a leading light in the Victorian Liberal Party, that party is seriously void of talent.

  25. Mexicanbeemer @ #2724 Sunday, December 8th, 2019 – 9:34 pm

    GG
    It is worst than that because Wooldridge is considered a leading light in the Victorian Liberal Party, that party is seriously void of talent.

    My guess is she could not see any way to the the top job (despite being well qualified) because the Libs in Victoria are dominated by religious fundamentalists.

    Don’t believe anything you read, the Libs in Victoria are passed forked atm.

  26. All the best there P1 for coming days

    Checking the forecast, mid to high thirties, west to north westerly winds and 20% or lower RH by 10-11 am Tuesday, pretty much along the ranges of NSW, the Hunter looking like it will be particularly cooked.

    If two weeks ago was an emergency, this coming week looks even more so, with already vast fires set to go for weeks now likely months. You’d think it might make for reckoning from some people.
    You’re right, rationalisation and justification for doing nothing here, just like the quiet ignorant Australians the PM would love them to be. I feel your efforts are wasted on the nongs and partisans here, they’re not even worth the effort because they’re in their seemingly endless PB bubble trying to influence no-one except themselves continuously or jump on any random poster who stumbles upon here, it seems to me.

  27. Quoll @ #2726 Sunday, December 8th, 2019 – 9:43 pm

    All the best there P1 for coming days

    Checking the forecast, mid to high thirties, west to north westerly winds and 20% or lower RH by 10-11 am Tuesday, pretty much along the ranges of NSW, the Hunter looking like it will be particularly cooked.

    If two weeks ago was an emergency, this coming week looks even more so, with already vast fires set to go for weeks now likely months. You’d think it might make for reckoning from some people.
    You’re right, rationalisation and justification for doing nothing here, just like the quiet ignorant Australians the PM would love them to be. I feel your efforts are wasted on the nongs and partisans here, they’re not even worth the effort because they’re in their seemingly endless PB bubble trying to influence no-one except themselves continuously or jump on any random poster who stumbles upon here, it seems to me.

    Your political analysis reminds me of a monkey that throws shit at the zoo watchers..

  29. P1,

    Let me join quoll in wishing you all the best over the coming week.

    I have mate with a farm out on Wombyen caves road. He’s been watching the westerlies build a huge fire ground to the north. Now a predicted northerly… he’s sensible and will get his family out, but holy crap it isn’t looking good.

  32. Hilarious Quoll.

    I’m pretty sure the other side from P1 is advocating that the focus should be on getting the renewables and storage in place, so we’re in a position to turn off the coal plants in Australia.

    In this scenario mining is irrelevant as mines will decline as the plants go offline.

  33. “I’m pretty sure the other side from P1 is advocating that the focus should be on getting the renewables and storage in place, so we’re in a position to turn off the coal plants in Australia.”

    Then there’s the other other side, which wants to ramp up renewables so far that we displace other countries’ use of fossil fuels, through embodied emissions reductions and direct renewable energy exports, but know we can’t do all this tomorrow or even next year.

  37. Player One:

    [‘To reiterate – “ignorance, stupidity, wilful blindness & denial”.

    In spades.’]

    I refuse to suggest that you enjoy the repartee.

  38. Andy Murray @ #2733 Sunday, December 8th, 2019 – 10:05 pm

    “I’m pretty sure the other side from P1 is advocating that the focus should be on getting the renewables and storage in place, so we’re in a position to turn off the coal plants in Australia.”

    Then there’s the other other side, which wants to ramp up renewables so far that we displace other countries’ use of fossil fuels, through embodied emissions reductions and direct renewable energy exports, but know we can’t do all this tomorrow or even next year.

    I’m all in favor of renewables. Anyone who believes opening new coal mines when we already have more coal available than we can ever hope to burn without killing the planet is just an imbecile. Or greedy. Or corrupt. Or all three. At best, they are just being willfully ignorant of what the science (and the 11,000 scientists who actually do the science, and clearly understand it) is telling us.

    I’m sick of trying to be polite to such people. They are just idiots. I expected no more from the Liberals … but why are there so many Labor people promulgating such crap? 🙁

  41. Tristo
    The revolution has started, the peasents are always the last to know.
    The government no longer feels an obligation to discuss the process of government with the peasants.
    The disparity between the rich and poor grows daily.
    We have shanty towns.
    The banks are no longer are accountable.
    Big business have developed their own methods and accountability.
    Unions and displays of dissatisfaction are outlawed.
    Taxation laws are not enforced.
    The churches are compromised morally and fiscally.
    The gaols are overflowing and crime rampant.
    The government no longer protects the environment.
    Schooling is superficially universal and education compromised by profit.
    Towns are dying and suburbs have become dormitories.
    We have a government in hiding.
    We are third world with all the arrogance of the mightiest empire.
    The only unanswered question is: just how ugly it will become.

  43. Peter Garrett – Remarks to LEAN

    https://www.lean.net.au/peter_garrett_remarks_to_lean

    “Here’s what we know.

    The natural world is under siege. The threat we face is literally existential.

    We are surrounded by fires, force fed by a super hot spring. Our cities and towns are blanketed with smoke and the sun has gone out, it’s hard to breathe.

    Rivers and springs are drying out, big and small towns are running out of water – running out of life.

    The planet is burning, the weather is veering out of control and it’s going to get a whole lot worse, very quickly, unless we act with a sense of urgency to get ourselves on a zero carbon pathway.”

    Doesn’t sound like he would be convinced by GG’s call for incrementalism, but then he wouldn’t be alone as his view is based on the science and not cynical politics and short-term political pragmatism.

    For info: To be part of the Labor Environment Action Network (LEAN) you do not need to be a member of the Labor party but you cannot be a member of any other political party.

  47. Greensborough Growler @ #2741 Sunday, December 8th, 2019 – 10:24 pm

    I’m sure I have advocated incrementalist action.

    This is your plan? Yes, I think I have heard this one …

    Step 1. Do nothing until Labor wins an election.
    Step 2. Well, we don’t really need a step 2, do we – because step 1 will never happen!

    Have I got the gist of your plan correct? By all means provide some more detail if I have misunderstood any significant aspect of it … 🙁

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