In the wake of Craig Emerson and Jay Weatherill’s federal electoral post-mortem for Labor, two post-election reviews have emerged from the Liberal Party, with very different tales to tell – one from the May 2019 federal triumph, the other from the November 2018 Victorian state disaster.
The first of these was conducted by Arthur Sinodinos and Steven Joyce, the latter being a former cabinet minister and campaign director for the conservative National Party in New Zealand. It seems we only get to see the executive summary and recommendations, the general tenor of which is that, while all concerned are to be congratulated on a job well done, the party benefited from a “poor Labor Party campaign” and shouldn’t get too cocky. Points of interest:
• It would seem the notion of introducing optional preferential voting has caught the fancy of some in the party. The report recommends the party “undertake analytical work to determine the opportunities and risks” – presumably with respect to itself – “before making any decision to request such a change”.
• Perhaps relatedly, the report says the party should work closer with the Nationals to avoid three-cornered contests. These may have handicapped the party in Gilmore, the one seat it lost to Labor in New South Wales outside Victoria.
• The report comes out for voter identification at the polling booth, a dubious notion that nonetheless did no real harm when it briefly operated in Queensland in 2015, and electronic certified lists of voters, which make a lot more sense.
• It is further felt that the parliament might want to look at cutting the pre-poll voting period from three weeks to two, but should keep its hands off the parties’ practice of mailing out postal vote applications. Parliament should also do something about “boorish behaviour around polling booths”, like “limiting the presence of volunteers to those linked with a particular candidate”.
• Hints are offered that Liberals’ pollsters served up dud results from “inner city metropolitan seats”. This probably means Reid in Sydney and Chisholm in Melbourne, both of which went better than they expected, and perhaps reflects difficulties polling the Chinese community. It is further suggested that the party’s polling program should expand from 20 seats to 25.
• Ten to twelve months is about the right length of time out from the election to preselect marginal seat candidates, and safe Labor seats can wait until six months out. This is at odds with the Victorian party’s recent decision to get promptly down to business, even ahead of a looming redistribution, which has been a source of friction between the state and federal party.
• After six of the party’s candidates fell by the wayside during the campaign, largely on account of social media indiscretions (one of which may have cost the Liberals the Tasmanian seat of Lyons), it is suggested that more careful vetting processes might be in order.
The Victorian inquiry was conducted by former state and federal party director Tony Nutt, and is available in apparently unexpurgated form. Notably:
• The party’s tough-on-crime campaign theme, turbo-charged by media reportage of an African gangs crisis, failed to land. Too many saw it as “a political tactic rather than an authentic problem to be solved by initiatives that would help make their neighbourhoods safer”. As if to show that you can’t always believe Peter Dutton, post-election research found the issue influenced the vote of only 6% of respondents, “and then not necessarily to our advantage”.
• As it became evident during the campaign that they were in trouble, the party’s research found the main problem was “a complete lack of knowledge about Matthew Guy, his team and their plans for Victoria if elected”. To the extent that Guy was recognised at all, it was usually on account of “lobster with a mobster”.
• Guy’s poor name recognition made it all the worse that attention was focused on personalities in federal politics, two months after the demise of Malcolm Turnbull. Post-election research found “30% of voters in Victorian electorates that were lost to Labor on the 24th November stated that they could not vote for the Liberal Party because of the removal of Malcolm Turnbull”.
• Amid a flurry of jabs at the Andrews government, for indiscretions said to make the Liberal defeat all the more intolerable, it is occasionally acknowledged tacitly that the government had not made itself an easy target. Voters were said to have been less concerned about “the Red Shirts affair for instance” than “more relevant, personal and compelling factors like delivery of local infrastructure”.
• The report features an exhausting list of recommendations, updated from David Kemp’s similar report in 2015, the first of which is that the party needs to get to work early on a “proper market research-based core strategy”. This reflects the Emerson and Weatherill report, which identified the main problem with the Labor campaign as a “weak strategy”.
• A set of recommendations headed “booth management” complains electoral commissions don’t act when Labor and union campaigners bully their volunteers.
• Without naming names, the report weights in against factional operators and journalists who “see themselves more as players and influencers than as traditional reporters”.
• The report is cagey about i360, described in The Age as “a controversial American voter data machine the party used in recent state elections in Victoria and South Australia”. It was reported to have been abandoned in April “amid a botched rollout and fears sensitive voter information was at risk”, but the report says only that it is in suspension, and recommends a “thorough review”.
• Other recommendations are that the party should write more lists, hold more meetings and find better candidates, and that its shadow ministers should pull their fingers out.
I see The Greens’ luvvies and bloviators like Quoll, are still saying that if only Labor would be more like us……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. They too would end up with 10% of the vote. 😆
In the eary part of 2008 the Coalition still had their majority from 2004. From mid 2008 it was Labor + Green 37, Fielding 1, X 1, Coalition 37.
Fielding could be regarded as a virtual member of the Coalition, giving them enough to block legislation but not a majority. If X sided with Labor it was 38-38 and deadlock. If he sided with the Coalition they won.
Pegasus says:
Tuesday, December 3, 2019 at 1:07 pm
The Guardian
The Labor leader, Anthony Albanese, is addressing caucus. He says Labor is moving forward.
After spending yesterday turning its laser-like focus on events that occurred a decade ago and concentrating on the real enemy, those evil Greens.
The more that Labor can do to distinguish themselves from the Greens the better it will go for Labor. Luckily, since the Greens campaign against Labor all the time, there are plenty of themes Labor can choose to accentuate the differences.
The Greens are an anti-Labor outfit. This needs to be stated as often as possible.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/government-broke-their-promise-labor-seeks-to-amend-encryption-legislation-20191203-p53gcp.html
How shocking! The Coalition has broken a promise!
It would help my constitution.
Still recovering from Frozen 2?
Of course nowadays there is no need for Labor to direct preferences to religious numpties. They preselect them:
Labor senator Kimberley Kitching — a close ally and friend of Bill Shorten — is moving to create a bipartisan parliamentary group that will defend “Judeo-Christian” values.
Tristo says:
Tuesday, December 3, 2019 at 12:47 pm
I struggle to understand why Labor is not defending the Carbon Tax
The carbon tax was Green-ware. It still is. Labor are not going to die win a ditch defending Greenery.
The greater the distance between the Greens and Labor the better.
“ I certainly don’t’ give a rats but it amused me to riff off it …”
Of course, Little Pony, it was water off a duck’s back for you.
Which is why you feel the need to remind us all 24 hours later …
It was emotional.
A letter to Crikey this morning:
James Burke writes: The Coalition’s been in government for six years. So why is Labor attacking the Greens again? For ten years Labor’s been trying to summon the courage to stand up to the schoolyard bullies. Every morning it whispers into the mirror: “This time. Today’s the day I tell Rupert and Gina and Alan and the rest to piss off, and they’ll see I mean business and leave me alone!” Yet every day, year after year, it wets its pants and hands over its lunch money… then goes looking for a smaller kid to pick on.
SK,
Let it go
What a pair of vile little turds.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-03/young-liberal-national-party-president-disciplined-racist-video/11759976?section=politics
I expect the “disciplinary action” will be along the lines of a bit, “Tsk, tsk.” finger waving and a slap on the wrist with a piece of soggy spaghetti.
DM, the music wasnt as good this time.
AE
I understand why you can not understand I am poking fun at your opinion the motion was a masterful stroke by Wong wtte.
Peg and alpha Zero,
Thanks for the information on Chisholm and Deakin.
It sounds as though Chisholm has a lot in common with Banks, while Deakin may be similar to Reid.
Seeing that Wong’s stunt was a master stroke I guess that makes the Greens stunts the Vinegar Stroke …
With Morrison banging on about secondary boycotts does he think that ethical investment funds are doing just that?
https://vibesurveys.com/en/surveys/development-of-aged-care-quality-indicators-open-written-sector-consultation-3rhjnfzvxma/respondents/new
Sonar,
Thanks for that. I thought it was you who had previously commented on this.
Kingswood used to be, a few decades ago, white but poor.
Werrington was where you started to encounter “New Australians” as my bigoted ex-MIL used to call them.
On the other hand Penrith township was always pretty affluent. The local doctors and lawyers tended to live out at Mulgoa, on acres, but I think Glenmore Park is a compromise for those who do not want to drive too far to work. I think a lot of Polis and small business people can be found in Glenmore Park.
It sounds like the Kingswood / Werrington line dividing east and west is as strong as it was in 1970. My father taught at St Mary’s hight at the time, and the contrast was notable.
I am still gobsmacked at how white the Blue Mountains is when I visit after moving out two decades ago. Stuck in a time warp.
Half the NSW Police Force live in Glenmore Park.
Kronomex says:
Tuesday, December 3, 2019 at 1:39 pm
What a pair of vile little turds.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-03/young-liberal-national-party-president-disciplined-racist-video/11759976?section=politics
I expect the “disciplinary action” will be along the lines of a bit, “Tsk, tsk.” finger waving and a slap on the wrist with a piece of soggy spaghetti.
____________________________
And what a stupid argument. The wheel wasn’t invented by the English or any Europeans for that matter. The world’s knowledge was assembled from the vast array of cultures and peoples. Is there anything more nauseating than a Young Liberal?
SK.
Alpha,
That is pure evil. 😆
C@tmomma @ #152 Tuesday, December 3rd, 2019 – 9:00 am
Earlwood is the one who came up with that.
Recorder teachers are so underpaid.
I’m sure that book contains several instances of the brown note…
SK
They would be immeasurably better off financially if they crowdfunded for money on the promise to stop teaching the recorder.
Someone was commenting on Marriage Equality.
A reminder the LGBTI community did not want a public vote on their rights. Labor and the Greens agreed.
Any losses in Western Sydney due to this are because of the insistence of the likes of Tony Abbott and Barnaby Joyce.
NONE of the true supporters of Marriage Equality wanted a debate damaging to mental health. This also means the Greens backing the community was not advocating a tactic that would put Labor Western Sydney seats at risk.
Probably a serendipitous factor in Labor’s backing of the same position.
I personally wanted the delay so Labor could just legislate it.
Be in no doubt it was the LNP and only the LNP and their allies that made it into such an issue in conservative religious areas like Western Sydney.
We don’t need to revise history. We should acknowledge that the people’s choice was final and got the backs up of a small minority in Labor marginal seats as a result.
The LNP have been campaigning on hate the gays for years Labor had it sorted. Doubt me see Senator Abetz in Tasmania campaigning to keep homosexuality a criminal offence.
Just like with Climate Change don’t revise history because the LNP won volatile voters enough to win by one seat. If you doubt the volatile I think it’s another term for unengaged voters. Susceptible to false claims in a campaign.
Edit: Therefore Daniel Andrews approach is fine. Look at the vote he got in even LNP seats backing the human rights of LGBTI people.
When they grow out of Frozen it gets worse. Then they want you to take them clothes shopping. For hours. And hours.
Q How does this look?
A Like a homeless prostitute.
Repeat.
The clothing options for children in the big stores are a disgrace.
SK I was in a large chain department store last night just chasing a plain white t-shirt for my youngest.
The boys shirts were $3, the girls ones were $6. The differences in the cut were minimal, the girls one had smaller arm holes and were pulled in slightly around the waist.
If Albanese is serious about Morrison not being able to tell the truth and just tell mistruth and misleads the parliament
Then Albanese should instruct the Labor party in both houses not to support any legislation put by Morrison and his cronies until they are transparent .
Sorry I forgot to add. The Marriage Equality survey was also a reason why there was such high confidence in the polls. The survey results run by the AEC were remarkably similar to the polls.
The difference from the Federal election. Voters were engaged.
Edit: So Labor pick an issue that can get voters engaged. WorkChoices did the same thing. That’s why I think an issue like a Wealth Tax could be engaging.
Guytaur. Nope a wealth tax would have the reverse effect. Never under-estimate the horse self-interest.
Guytaur,
It was me that raised ME and my point was that those advocating to wait would still be waiting.
You need to grab things when they present themselves in politics, otherwise you can easily miss to boat.
Alpha
The Billionaires have attacked Warren on backing away from Medicare4all. Not her wealth tax. They have still not stopped Senator Sanders who has a clear position of their should be no billionaires and Universal Health Care.
We shall see. The point is Labor can pick an issue to frame the narrative to engage voters. It can be very progressive and it can win.
GBR Foundation – cash give away
NBN -debacle
MDB Authority – contorted compromise
Banks – fraud
Robodebt – persecution of the poor
Health Insurance – unregulated on-going rorting
Health Services – regulated corruption
Taxation – hopelessly compromised
Climate Change – strategic denial
Australia has a corrupt government which has contributed willingly to create many undesirable outcomes, a divided, disillusioned voting public and is in urgent need of a change of direction.
Any number of diversions is of benefit to the accidental PM.
Barney
ME had become inevitable under Labor. It would have happened just like the legislation when Rudd first got elected.
Nary a murmur from voters over equality under legislation including social security.
The ability of the LNP to divide society should not be underestimated
Edit: As Senator Wong spot on the LNP in her pushback talking about China proved on Insiders.
Compare NZ v England boredom fest drawn test match with Nepal v Maldives womens 20/20.
Maldives all out for 16 (Anjali Chand 6-0) . Nepal got the runs in 5 balls.
Those young Liberal bogans should be aware that it’s likely the wheel was invented in or around Mesopotamia and probably in China as well.
The immediate ancestors of bogans probably stole the idea. 🙂
Goll
Add aged care abuse.
DP,
Oh okay, cool.
With rabid supporters like Pegasus and her comments about Labor supporters that drip with contempt you can easily see why The Greens have internal problems. Alex Bhathal’s assessment was spot on. The Greens must be a nest of vipers.
guytaursays:
Tuesday, December 3, 2019 at 3:05 pm
Ummmmm, Labor didn’t win.
Could you see Morrison presenting legislation?
I think it would be fair to say that if it had been postponed to after the election, ME would not be legislated now.
Those Young Liberals probably believe Noah built an Ark too.
frednk @ #67 Tuesday, December 3rd, 2019 – 9:45 am
The ABC News report says this:
Ms Plesman also took aim at Labor during her demonstration on Monday morning.
“We’ve got no leadership, we’ve got no discussion, we’ve got no debate, we’ve got nothing,” she said.
“We need a bipartisan approach.
“I completely understand that the Labor Party are absent in this as well.”
So why do you say Pegasus is spreading disinformation? Doesn’t read like that to me.
swamprat
Even after stealing it there was a decades long period called the ‘Uni Age’. This was period before the bogans realised that having ‘a’ wheel is fine and dandy but you really need to use at least two of them.
The purpose of a wealth tax would be to reduce inequality. It would not provide the federal government with increased spending power. Federal tax receipts control inflation, control inequality, or modify behaviour. They have nothing to do with the government’s financial capacity.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #242 Tuesday, December 3rd, 2019 – 3:29 pm
Barney, I’m wondering how much Morrison’s election was a reaction to SSM, i.e. a nominal (if not actual) christian fundamental blowback. As Trump is to Obama …
Nicholas
In other words it is a pointless exercise so people can fell good they did something without actually doing the hard work of actually helping the disadvantaged.
poroti @ #130 Tuesday, December 3rd, 2019 – 11:35 am
The Sun newspaper rather cleverly headlined it as One’s Bum Year. Most of its readers probably wouldn’t have got the pun!
Simon Katich @ #59 Tuesday, December 3rd, 2019 – 7:59 am
The lack of genuine (and timely) accountability for our political class is destroying us.
I would like the non-government Senators to present a united front and say to the government: ‘We will not pass any further (non-emergency) legislation, until the full enabling legislation for a properly resourced and empowered federal anti-corruption body has been passed.’
Single most useful thing they could do for this country.
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ItzaDream @ #100 Tuesday, December 3rd, 2019 – 9:09 am
Ducks are also superb cockroach controllers, and they don’t tear the garden up like chickens do.
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Boerwar @ #109 Tuesday, December 3rd, 2019 – 9:30 am
The NT has delivered Labor at least 2 (out of a possible 4) federal NT MPs since 2001, and 3/4 on three occasions, including the last two elections.
If the items on that {edited} list above actually looked like standing a chance of being implemented, the centre-left could kiss goodbye to at least one of those 3 seats (a Reps), and probably 2 of them (both Reps), leaving them with just 1/4 federal seats (a Senate).
The Greens have an interesting relationship with the NT electorate. In federal elections they score about their national average. But in local NT elections, they have never managed even 5%, let alone winning a seat, and have been trending consistently down for some years (currently on just 2.9%). For all practical purposes they are irrelevant to local NT governance.