Winners and losers

Reading between the lines of the Liberal Party’s post-election reports for the federal and Victorian state elections.

In the wake of Craig Emerson and Jay Weatherill’s federal electoral post-mortem for Labor, two post-election reviews have emerged from the Liberal Party, with very different tales to tell – one from the May 2019 federal triumph, the other from the November 2018 Victorian state disaster.

The first of these was conducted by Arthur Sinodinos and Steven Joyce, the latter being a former cabinet minister and campaign director for the conservative National Party in New Zealand. It seems we only get to see the executive summary and recommendations, the general tenor of which is that, while all concerned are to be congratulated on a job well done, the party benefited from a “poor Labor Party campaign” and shouldn’t get too cocky. Points of interest:

• It would seem the notion of introducing optional preferential voting has caught the fancy of some in the party. The report recommends the party “undertake analytical work to determine the opportunities and risks” – presumably with respect to itself – “before making any decision to request such a change”.

• Perhaps relatedly, the report says the party should work closer with the Nationals to avoid three-cornered contests. These may have handicapped the party in Gilmore, the one seat it lost to Labor in New South Wales outside Victoria.

• The report comes out for voter identification at the polling booth, a dubious notion that nonetheless did no real harm when it briefly operated in Queensland in 2015, and electronic certified lists of voters, which make a lot more sense.

• It is further felt that the parliament might want to look at cutting the pre-poll voting period from three weeks to two, but should keep its hands off the parties’ practice of mailing out postal vote applications. Parliament should also do something about “boorish behaviour around polling booths”, like “limiting the presence of volunteers to those linked with a particular candidate”.

• Hints are offered that Liberals’ pollsters served up dud results from “inner city metropolitan seats”. This probably means Reid in Sydney and Chisholm in Melbourne, both of which went better than they expected, and perhaps reflects difficulties polling the Chinese community. It is further suggested that the party’s polling program should expand from 20 seats to 25.

• Ten to twelve months is about the right length of time out from the election to preselect marginal seat candidates, and safe Labor seats can wait until six months out. This is at odds with the Victorian party’s recent decision to get promptly down to business, even ahead of a looming redistribution, which has been a source of friction between the state and federal party.

• After six of the party’s candidates fell by the wayside during the campaign, largely on account of social media indiscretions (one of which may have cost the Liberals the Tasmanian seat of Lyons), it is suggested that more careful vetting processes might be in order.

The Victorian inquiry was conducted by former state and federal party director Tony Nutt, and is available in apparently unexpurgated form. Notably:

• The party’s tough-on-crime campaign theme, turbo-charged by media reportage of an African gangs crisis, failed to land. Too many saw it as “a political tactic rather than an authentic problem to be solved by initiatives that would help make their neighbourhoods safer”. As if to show that you can’t always believe Peter Dutton, post-election research found the issue influenced the vote of only 6% of respondents, “and then not necessarily to our advantage”.

• As it became evident during the campaign that they were in trouble, the party’s research found the main problem was “a complete lack of knowledge about Matthew Guy, his team and their plans for Victoria if elected”. To the extent that Guy was recognised at all, it was usually on account of “lobster with a mobster”.

• Guy’s poor name recognition made it all the worse that attention was focused on personalities in federal politics, two months after the demise of Malcolm Turnbull. Post-election research found “30% of voters in Victorian electorates that were lost to Labor on the 24th November stated that they could not vote for the Liberal Party because of the removal of Malcolm Turnbull”.

• Amid a flurry of jabs at the Andrews government, for indiscretions said to make the Liberal defeat all the more intolerable, it is occasionally acknowledged tacitly that the government had not made itself an easy target. Voters were said to have been less concerned about “the Red Shirts affair for instance” than “more relevant, personal and compelling factors like delivery of local infrastructure”.

• The report features an exhausting list of recommendations, updated from David Kemp’s similar report in 2015, the first of which is that the party needs to get to work early on a “proper market research-based core strategy”. This reflects the Emerson and Weatherill report, which identified the main problem with the Labor campaign as a “weak strategy”.

• A set of recommendations headed “booth management” complains electoral commissions don’t act when Labor and union campaigners bully their volunteers.

• Without naming names, the report weights in against factional operators and journalists who “see themselves more as players and influencers than as traditional reporters”.

• The report is cagey about i360, described in The Age as “a controversial American voter data machine the party used in recent state elections in Victoria and South Australia”. It was reported to have been abandoned in April “amid a botched rollout and fears sensitive voter information was at risk”, but the report says only that it is in suspension, and recommends a “thorough review”.

• Other recommendations are that the party should write more lists, hold more meetings and find better candidates, and that its shadow ministers should pull their fingers out.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,754 comments on “Winners and losers”

Comments Page 43 of 56
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  1. P1

    We saved the retreat with the help of a water bombing helicopter and 6 firetrucks and crews of RFS volunteers.

    Yeah but it was Scrott’s thoughts and prayers that did all the heavy lifting . 😉

  2. Did I see this on the ‘news’, or was it justTwitter? Dutton “interviews” the officers, inviting them to tell him how happy they are.

    @ebatruth
    ·
    3m

    Watch Dutton’s video on this where he gets AFP officers to explain what’s happening. It has an “authorised by” message at the end, indicating it is a political advertisement. An admission that the AFP are being used for political purposes. Slippery, slippery slope.

  3. Confessions @ #2094 Saturday, December 7th, 2019 – 11:13 am

    zoomster:

    At least one other journalist has written that Taylor is future PM material.

    The outstanding question requiring an answer is

    Since the horrinourable gentleman appears not to have multiple citizenship rights –
    Where is the mythical country/state that would
    Firstly – have him as a citizen
    and is
    Second so dumbed down (the envy of Orstrayans everywhere) that he would be considered for the elected position of second assistant dunny man ❓ Other positions well out of reach.

    Looks like a duck to me. 🦆

  4. Thanks, all.

    I will only be posting sporadically, and won’t have time to read all the posts, but I will try and post if anything changes.

  6. Re: rolling ScoMo.

    The Liberals have now changed leaders three times. It hasn’t hurt them electorally – if anything, it’s been seen as a plus. There won’t be the same reluctance to change that there has been in the past.

  7. kayjay:

    It seems implausible now, but there’s always the likelihood that Taylor rides out the current storm, aided and abetted by his party, and rises to the leadership at some future point post Scotty.

  9. …my point was that PvO no longer sees Angus Taylor as even Ministerial material, suggesting that he should be warier about making predictions.


  10. laughtong says:
    Saturday, December 7, 2019 at 11:51 am
    Interesting to see this in the Herald Sun.

    Very little about robodebt a lot of snark against Albanese though. Didn’t read one comment in the same vane though. Editor will be disappointed.

  12. Confessions @ #2107 Saturday, December 7th, 2019 – 11:56 am

    kayjay:

    It seems implausible now, but there’s always the likelihood that Taylor rides out the current storm, aided and abetted by his party, and rises to the leadership at some future point post Scotty.

    Why cannot somebody put forward the name of one of the rapidly dwindling cohort of humans as opposed to those contender for BK’s arsehole of the week nominations ❓

    How do you like my most recent photo shown above 🐒 ❓

  15. Those poor over-worked telephonists at the Parliament House switchboard are cursing Dutton for working the phones. In the August 2018 spill, Dutton only lost by 5 votes, and he’s really pissed off, of the view that Morrison’s a patroniser, a poser, a prick. Go for it Dutts!

  16. Introduction to the Science Show today.

    Words close to..

    “We warned you about global warming first on this show back in 1975 – 45 years ago”

  20. lizzie @ #2058 Saturday, December 7th, 2019 – 10:11 am

    The Singleton Argus
    @SingletonArgus
    ·
    4h
    It just gets better and better all 14 air quality monitors in the Upper Hunter are recording hazardous air pollution but no alerts have been issued. Thanks NSW Government for failing in every department when it comes to air pollution, bushfires and climate change policy. Useless.

    Something I’ve been banging on about. The truth is too hard for them. Their house of cards is combustible. Who knew! It is an appalling failure of good governance and public health.

  22. Comments on an ACT blog post about the Public Service changes suggests it is going to make things difficult for the Libs to win the local election due next year.

  24. zoomster,

    Agree.

    Menzies was voted out of office in 1941 and managed to come back in 1949 to lead the Libs for over a decade.

    Howard was Treasurer in the Fraser Government for years and left office with the Libs reputation for economic management in tatters. Yet 13 years later he returned as leader and governed for over a decade.

    So, being a disaster early in one’s political career is no impediment to future success.

  25. The Budget is determined by a Living Standards Framework and how it will benefit the next generation.

    Priorities : Taking mental health seriously.
    Improving Child Well-being.
    Supporting Indigenous Aspirations and Outcomes.
    Building a Productive Nation. Transforming the Economy.

  27. The world’s starting to take note:

    [‘Media outlets around the world have reacted as more than 100 blazes burn across NSW and Sydney’s sepia-toned sky – the result of harmful smoke pollution – becomes the new norm.
    Global publications and angered readers have placed responsibility for the fires on the Australian government and their failure to address the current climate crisis, calling the nation “the indirect architect of its own demise”.

    Australia “is the largest exporter of thermal and coking coal in the world now, adding massively to global warming through their own expert initiatives,” commented one reader, saying that both the federal and state governments are “owned by climate sceptics”.’]

    https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/climate-change/how-the-world-has-reacted-to-sydney-smoke-haze/news-story/c6782de9b2782287740099cb42ac0176

  30. Okay, so now I am sitting across from Craig Emerson, Stephen Mills (former Hawke speechwriter) and Susan Ryan, about what can Labor learn from the Hawke years?

  31. Itza, the Coalition function on the belief, which is core to their project, of treating the electorate like mushrooms, kept in the dark and fed on bs.

  32. So, being a disaster early in one’s political career is no impediment to future success.
    _____________________
    Bill Shorten is greedily devouring biographies of Churchill and Howard, looking for clues.

  34. nath:

    [‘Bill Shorten is greedily devouring biographies of Churchill and Howard, looking for clues.’]

    Don’t forget Kevin Rudd, too. I think it’d foolish to count Bill out entirely.

  35. C@t has anyone spoken about Labor being more professional and scientific in its approach to disabusing “quiet australians” of wrong ideas?

  36. Confessions says:
    Saturday, December 7, 2019 at 9:26 am

    A bold prediction from PvO.

    Peter van OnselenVerified account@vanOnselenP
    10h10 hours ago
    I’m 100% certain Scott Morrison has the next election in the bag. That’s my prediction

    Hard to tell if he’s being sarcastic, but many people have suggested the next election is too early to call.
    —————————–
    I put that down to sarcasm since he has been copping it for saying Shorten would win in May.

  37. Cud,
    They were told by the NZ Minister and by Craig Emerson to KISS and concentrate on only a few major themes in the run-up to the next election.

  38. “I think it’d foolish to count Bill out entirely.”

    ***

    Certainly not until he is out of the parliament.

    Knows how to wield a bladed instrument, does old Bill…

    Oops! Sorry! Wrong one…

  39. Somewhat off-topic, in some good news from overseas, the US House of Representatives has voted to condemn any move by the Israeli government to annex parts of the occupied West Bank. The resolution also reiterated that only a two-state solution, including the West Bank as part of a Palestinian state alongside Israel, can bring about peace between the Jewish state and the Palestinians.
    Israeli prime minister Bibi Netanyahu – hopefully soon to be former prime minister Netanyahu – wants Israel to annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank. Palestinians say the valley is an integral part of their future state.
    The house vote divided almost entirely on party lines, with five Republicans supporting the resolution and four Democrats voting against. The dissenting Democrats were not, as you might imagine, hardline Zionists, but the solidly leftwing famous four: Ilhan Omar, Palestinian-American Rashida Tlaib, Alexandria Occasion-Cortez and Ayanna Presley.
    Tlaib opposes the two-state solution because she hasn’t caught up with history and still favours the old PLO policy – long discarded – of one state for Israelis and Palestinians, which has as much chance of coming about as Britain and Ireland reuniting into one entity.
    The others voted against the resolution because it failed to mention the word “occupation”. Yeah, it should have done that, but why let the perfect be the enemy of the good?
    Sound familiar?

  41. SHP

    The others voted against the resolution because it failed to mention the word “occupation”. Yeah, it should have done that, but why let the perfect be the enemy of the good?
    Sound familiar?

    Because over in the ME words matter…….a lot. That word”occupation” is one Israel has been working hard to disappear from the conversation. It must never be allowed to.

    Not that it matters when you consider where this will probably lead.
    .
    Netanyahu, Pompeo push forward with US-Israel defense pact
    https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Netanyahu-Pompeo-push-forward-with-defense-pact-610011

  46. ‘Mavis says:
    Saturday, December 7, 2019 at 1:42 pm

    The world’s starting to take note:

    [‘Media outlets around the world have reacted as more than 100 blazes burn across NSW and Sydney’s sepia-toned sky – the result of harmful smoke pollution – becomes the new norm.
    Global publications and angered readers have placed responsibility for the fires on the Australian government and their failure to address the current climate crisis, calling the nation “the indirect architect of its own demise”.

    Australia “is the largest exporter of thermal and coking coal in the world now, adding massively to global warming through their own expert initiatives,” commented one reader, saying that both the federal and state governments are “owned by climate sceptics”.’]’

    A fair bit of bullshit in the offing, here.

    For example, Britain imports and consumes more CO2 emissions than Australia emits.

    If people are going to wallow in the blame game they should get their numbers right.

  49. Tlaib opposes the two-state solution because she hasn’t caught up with history and still favours the old PLO policy – long discarded – of one state for Israelis and Palestinians

    A bi-national state with a high degree of decentralization would probably be more legitimate and effective than creating a fake Palestinian state with no military and no control over its borders (which is what the so-called “two state solution” would involve).

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