In the wake of Craig Emerson and Jay Weatherill’s federal electoral post-mortem for Labor, two post-election reviews have emerged from the Liberal Party, with very different tales to tell – one from the May 2019 federal triumph, the other from the November 2018 Victorian state disaster.
The first of these was conducted by Arthur Sinodinos and Steven Joyce, the latter being a former cabinet minister and campaign director for the conservative National Party in New Zealand. It seems we only get to see the executive summary and recommendations, the general tenor of which is that, while all concerned are to be congratulated on a job well done, the party benefited from a “poor Labor Party campaign” and shouldn’t get too cocky. Points of interest:
• It would seem the notion of introducing optional preferential voting has caught the fancy of some in the party. The report recommends the party “undertake analytical work to determine the opportunities and risks” – presumably with respect to itself – “before making any decision to request such a change”.
• Perhaps relatedly, the report says the party should work closer with the Nationals to avoid three-cornered contests. These may have handicapped the party in Gilmore, the one seat it lost to Labor in New South Wales outside Victoria.
• The report comes out for voter identification at the polling booth, a dubious notion that nonetheless did no real harm when it briefly operated in Queensland in 2015, and electronic certified lists of voters, which make a lot more sense.
• It is further felt that the parliament might want to look at cutting the pre-poll voting period from three weeks to two, but should keep its hands off the parties’ practice of mailing out postal vote applications. Parliament should also do something about “boorish behaviour around polling booths”, like “limiting the presence of volunteers to those linked with a particular candidate”.
• Hints are offered that Liberals’ pollsters served up dud results from “inner city metropolitan seats”. This probably means Reid in Sydney and Chisholm in Melbourne, both of which went better than they expected, and perhaps reflects difficulties polling the Chinese community. It is further suggested that the party’s polling program should expand from 20 seats to 25.
• Ten to twelve months is about the right length of time out from the election to preselect marginal seat candidates, and safe Labor seats can wait until six months out. This is at odds with the Victorian party’s recent decision to get promptly down to business, even ahead of a looming redistribution, which has been a source of friction between the state and federal party.
• After six of the party’s candidates fell by the wayside during the campaign, largely on account of social media indiscretions (one of which may have cost the Liberals the Tasmanian seat of Lyons), it is suggested that more careful vetting processes might be in order.
The Victorian inquiry was conducted by former state and federal party director Tony Nutt, and is available in apparently unexpurgated form. Notably:
• The party’s tough-on-crime campaign theme, turbo-charged by media reportage of an African gangs crisis, failed to land. Too many saw it as “a political tactic rather than an authentic problem to be solved by initiatives that would help make their neighbourhoods safer”. As if to show that you can’t always believe Peter Dutton, post-election research found the issue influenced the vote of only 6% of respondents, “and then not necessarily to our advantage”.
• As it became evident during the campaign that they were in trouble, the party’s research found the main problem was “a complete lack of knowledge about Matthew Guy, his team and their plans for Victoria if elected”. To the extent that Guy was recognised at all, it was usually on account of “lobster with a mobster”.
• Guy’s poor name recognition made it all the worse that attention was focused on personalities in federal politics, two months after the demise of Malcolm Turnbull. Post-election research found “30% of voters in Victorian electorates that were lost to Labor on the 24th November stated that they could not vote for the Liberal Party because of the removal of Malcolm Turnbull”.
• Amid a flurry of jabs at the Andrews government, for indiscretions said to make the Liberal defeat all the more intolerable, it is occasionally acknowledged tacitly that the government had not made itself an easy target. Voters were said to have been less concerned about “the Red Shirts affair for instance” than “more relevant, personal and compelling factors like delivery of local infrastructure”.
• The report features an exhausting list of recommendations, updated from David Kemp’s similar report in 2015, the first of which is that the party needs to get to work early on a “proper market research-based core strategy”. This reflects the Emerson and Weatherill report, which identified the main problem with the Labor campaign as a “weak strategy”.
• A set of recommendations headed “booth management” complains electoral commissions don’t act when Labor and union campaigners bully their volunteers.
• Without naming names, the report weights in against factional operators and journalists who “see themselves more as players and influencers than as traditional reporters”.
• The report is cagey about i360, described in The Age as “a controversial American voter data machine the party used in recent state elections in Victoria and South Australia”. It was reported to have been abandoned in April “amid a botched rollout and fears sensitive voter information was at risk”, but the report says only that it is in suspension, and recommends a “thorough review”.
• Other recommendations are that the party should write more lists, hold more meetings and find better candidates, and that its shadow ministers should pull their fingers out.
Just putting a thought out there………
Will the Libs try to pull a DD trigger?
Reasoning? Currently the Libs don’t have a workable majority in the Senate, but only have to deal with a couple of err ummm highly gullible idiots to get legislation through.
If they were to proceed to a “normal” election next time there chances of a getting a workable Senate? not much!
Reasoning? (before i get the usual green bashing, can i say i am not posting about partisan politics here, just Senate numbers) the last election the Greens had the most to lose with all bar 3 senators facing re-election from the previous DD. The next general election there are only 3 green senators up for election 1 in tas, vic and wa. I would imagine they are all safe, if the greens were to perform to the same standard as last election the result would be a block of 12 senators, that is a huge majority either major would have to overcome to be able to pass legislation without the support of the greens.
If i were a Labor strategist i would have a huge eye open for DD triggers as time goes by!
Mavis
Thanks.
A 40 year old having sex with what a 40 year old should see as a kid ( you know your old when the kids at the station are there to pick up their children). Not good from the yuk pint of view, but that is life.
17 probable illegal, making it a story.
FMD , ‘National security” pull the other one.
.
.
Lambie breaks down, refuses to say why she has given support
She again cites national security for her lack of reasoning.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/dec/04/coalition-nationals-umurray-darling-basin-pisa-results-gdp-economy-medevac-lambie-politics-live
Financial advisers make more money out of maths than maths teachers.
I spent 45 minutes with our adviser yesterday and I heard more maths concepts in that 45 minutes than I had been exposed to for the previous month.
Algorithm developers make more money than financial advisers and maths teachers combined. That’s where the mathematically-talented young people are going.
Boerwar
I believe the equation is written as
Bw-$=FA+$+ 🙂
Deeply disappointed in Lambie. This is a lose-lose situation and perhaps her Meg Lees moment.
From ABC online today……in relation to the QLD flooding
“How much is the bill?
Prior to the court handing down its decision, it was widely reported to be the largest ever class action in Australia with the bill estimated to be about $1 billion.
However, Maurice Blackburn — the firm representing the claimants — said they expected the bill to be in the “hundreds of millions” — still a hefty figure.”
Hmmm i wonder if this will be added to the financial cost of fossil fuel usage, or the Banana tax etc etc, we will all have to pay in the end, just wait for the major insurers to start their own cases on the back of that verdict. Big business never pays in our system, so we will all look forward to footing the bill….yay
What is needed is to make any supplier of FF products cover the insurance costs for extreme weather related catastrophes, now that would be fun to watch.
phoenixRED:
[‘Yikes Mavis that sounds terrible – hope its many a long time between bouts !!!!’]
Thanks. Attacks are usually separated by a month, then I get it for two to three consecutive days. It can also affect lips and cheeks. A precursor to the attacks is sometimes hay fever.
As you’d be aware, Agent Orange is an excellent defoliant but very dangerous when humans are exposed to it. HMAS Sydney used to draw water from Vung Tau harbour and we’d drink water spliced with it on the way back to Oz. As for its effects on the Vietnamese:
[‘Up to four million people in Vietnam were exposed to the defoliant. The government of Vietnam says as many as 3 million people have suffered illnesses because of Agent Orange. The Red Cross of Vietnam estimates that up to 1 million people are disabled or have health problems as a result of Agent Orange contamination.’] – but to their credit, they won the war/conflict.
p
haha. Here’s hoping. It pays to keep your wits about you.
Here is part of one of the conversations:
One of the recommedations was a company that holds the real estate for hundreds of service stations. The investment period was the next decade.
‘What about the plumes?’ we asked.
‘What plumes?’
‘The contamination plumes that are often found underneath service stations.’
‘Oh.’
‘What about EVs?’ we asked.
‘In 2017 EV penetration in the Oz market was less than 1%.’ was the reply.
‘You do know that by 2025 Toyota will ONLY be manufacturing EVs?’
We took it from this that the environment was not exactly top of this adviser’s mind.
Terminator @ #557 Wednesday, December 4th, 2019 – 11:04 am
They probably got Stuart Robert to ‘persuade’ her and she couldn’t understand a word of it.
Terminator,
Doubt it!, sorry to say, but as a fellow Tasmanian, there are just to many non-thinking bogans who love her, she gets all the media (just look at how many times Aunty has had the half-wit on Q&A FFS) and in Tassie politics that’s all that matters! she has a cult following and the job is hers for as long as she wants it.
jeff,
But didn’t Lambie only just scrape in by the skin of her teeth this time?
Mavis
As a matter of particular interest, but not wishing to invade your privacy, how have you found DVA in terms of addressing any of your Vet issues including the consequences of drinking Agent Orange shandies?
Zoom,
I would agree with that. There seems to be some unstated belief that teachers are incapable off any development or self-education after they are trained. FFS, I learnt set theory in primary school, on someone’s whim. And those cuisenaire rods – what on earth was the point of those. But, I have still gone on to have a very good career in STEM.
On another note, you teach in the Victorian system I think? I note they seemed to do the best of all the states, while here in NSW we did pretty badly.
In Sydney, there is good evidence that state schools in poorer areas are becoming “residualised”, with anyone who can afford to send their children to a private school, of any sort, doing so. Also, these private schools can reject ay student at any time, so classrooms in some state schools have a disproportionate number of high-dependency students.
In Sydney, 50% of all high school students are in the private system. How does that compare with Victoria?
Lambie? Impact on voting?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-27/elective-surgery-waiting-lists-blow-out-in-tasmania/11447676
Boerwar
Sounds like you should be charging him !
jeff
says:
Wednesday, December 4, 2019 at 11:10 am
Terminator,
Doubt it!, sorry to say, but as a fellow Tasmanian, there are just to many non-thinking bogans who love her, she gets all the media (just look at how many times Aunty has had the half-wit on Q&A FFS) and in Tassie politics that’s all that matters! she has a cult following and the job is hers for as long as she wants it.
_________________________
Well she has a unique way of connecting with her supporters:
Ms Lambie, 48, is seen struggling to eat the large fried sausage covered in tomato sauce but she showed off her sense of humour by making light of the unflattering shots.
‘You guys know I like my sausage!’ she said in a Facebook post that has garnered more than 6,000 likes and nearly 2,000 comments praising her provocative pictures.
Boerwar
Possibly, if she is stupid enough to think the Medivac stuff will have an effect on elective surgery in Tasmania.
Kamala Harris Owns Trump After He Mocks Her 2020 Drop Out
Trump tried to mock Kamala Harris for dropping out of the presidential race, but instead, got owned by the California Senator.
Trump tweeted :
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
Too bad. We will miss you Kamala!
Harris responded :
Kamala Harris @KamalaHarris
Don’t worry, Mr. President. I’ll see you at your trial.
It is a shame that Sen. Harris had to drop out of the Democratic primary. The Democratic field is loaded with good candidates, so some decent candidates aren’t going to make the cut, but Sen. Harris was correct. She is far from finished, and she is about to take part in history as she will be a juror at Donald Trump’s impeachment trial.
https://www.politicususa.com/2019/12/03/kamala-harris-trump-impeachment-trial.html
Jeff, about the prospects of the next election being a DD.
They’re zero. At the last election, only Jacqui Lambie stopped the coalition getting a ‘blocking’ majority (half the senators elected). They will be looking to repeat, or even improve on, that performance next time. The last thing they want is a DD with lower quotas putting more seats in the hands of crossbenchers at their expense.
I like your thinking C@T,
and the answer is yes and no,true she did scrape in at 6th but fairly comfortable margin to the next member, and remember she did not have the advantage of incumbency last time around!
I wish i am wrong more than you could believe but i am sure you all remember only to well…. he who’s name can’t be spoken……….Brian Harradine……………..arrrrggghhhhhh
Dutton’s Department interferes in the political arena, no doubt at his direction.
Looks like the current government is promoting “globalisation” as a bogey man to be feared.
p
In the scheme of things the Medevac stuff is about nothing real.
It won’t impact the tens of thousands of illegal overstayers/fly in refugees applicants.
It won’t cause a nanosecond’s loss of sleep for a single Indonesian people smuggler.
At most it will delay the medical treatment for Australians on waiting lists.
It is political theatre. Lots of grandstanding. Lots of grandiose rhetoric. Lots of chest thumping. Lots of weeping and gnashing of teeth. Classic Culture War stuff.
The Coalition has this playacting theatre EXACTLY where they want it and on their terms: holding its rusted ons. So Labor and the Greens are dancing to their tune.
As for excoriating Lambie, fiddlesticks. When are the Lefties going to bloody well wake up to themselves? The Act was killed by the Liberals and the Nationals and they could do this because six years of Killing Bill and wedging Labor worked a treat. And just who killed Bill and just who wedged Labor?
Fools like Di Natale.
Boerwar:
[‘As a matter of particular interest, but not wishing to invade your privacy, how have you found DVA in terms of addressing any of your Vet issues including the consequences of drinking Agent Orange shandies?’]
This goes against the grain of many Vets, but I’ve invariably found the DVA to provide excellent service.
I’ve certainly been well looked after. As far as exposure to Agent Orange is concerned, there is a pathology test to measure it but it’s very expensive, with the result I was knocked back, but it didn’t concern me all that much. I do, however, think a royal commission is needed to address the higher than average suicide rate – mainly among vets of more recent conflicts.
I suspect that Lambie has been done like the proverbial dinner by this unconscionable government.
Helpful information, if you were back in 2007 looking at a 10-year investment in service stations.
In 2019, not so much I would have thought.
Shame on the senators who passed the repeal.
What is wrong with these people ?
Good, if depressing, statement from Stirling Griff:
A government that has no empathy for people in need of critical medical care is a government that doesn’t deserve to govern.
This repeal is all about a government desperate for a win – any win – ahead of the summer break.
Prior to Medevac there were many deaths in detention. There have been none since Medevac came into force.
This repeal will damage lives. It is a heartless action that shows complete disdain for humanity.
Mavis
Thanks.
AM
yup that’s my normal thinking also, but the senate setup now is as i explained and if you look at the greens as cross benches, there is a now a possibility of 12, Lambie would still be there as not up for election, ON also….. others might provide a full list, it will be interesting, there is no way i can see the Greens getting more than 9 in a DD? possible but not probable IMHO.
What is the point in teaching everyone maths? Most people don’t need it bar being able to add, subtract and work out a percentage.
Even then, most people get by with letting other people do the calculations for them. Think banks, ATMs, shop assistance/registers, employers and super funds.
Calling this a farce is really stretching a long bow.
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/australian-politics-live-wednesday-december-4/live-coverage/8c20801ae2c4ee4d89f71689876402fc
Methinks The Corminator has screwed up yet again.
Anybody who is good enough at maths to be able to teach it at a high enough standard has done the maths on doing maths teaching. It obviously doesn’t add up…
Jeff,
The absolute number of Greens doesn’t matter. What matters is the balance of power. The coalition would be happy to see twelve Greens senators as long as Labor plus Greens are short of a majority, and the further short the better.
If the numbers from the last election are repeated at the next, Labor + Greens will be 34 (38 required to block). There’s an outside chance they could get an extra seat in Tasmania and a remote chance in Queensland, making a max of 36. So even at the best case, the coalition would be laughing.
But a DD would likely get them back to where they were after the 2016 election, not laughing at all.
Is this a form of intimidation and coercion?
From the Guardian blog.
The repeal of the Medevac Bill proves we cannot trust politicians with human rights.
We need Human Rights inserted into the constitution to prevent politicians abusing human right to win political power.
Not even Labor has been able to prevent this abuse.
Our system is not holding the government to account.
Yes Labor partisans despite your best efforts and I really mean that. Labor has been excellent with its support of medical rights.
The argument for a republic just got stronger.
Redoing the constitution means we can insist secrecy is a last resort not the default.
It’s no longer just about changing the head of state. It’s about stopping fascism and dictatorship creating a police state as secrecy becomes the default.
Were lambie’s tears from the dawning on her she had been sold a pup and a dead one at that ?
Current Senate: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Senate#2019_election
Labor 26
Green 9
————
Left + Centre-Left 35
Coalion 35
Bernardi 1
One Nation 2
———-
Right-Far Right 38
Centre Alliance 2
Lambie 1
————-
Centre 3
Not a cheerful scene
In 2019 Lambie was elected 6th, but when the count was down to the last two spots with two ALP candidates, One Nation and Jackie Lambie remaining, the leading ALP candidate (Bilyk) had 0.905 quotas and Lambie had 0.982 quotas. The next closest was the One Nation candidate with 0.509.
That’s a pretty comfortable win.
Oops. Forgot about the territory senators. Add 2 to those numbers for Labor + Greens above. So they could theoretically get to a blocking majority in the absolutely best case.
caf
Yep. Some of the large leases start falling due in the mid twenty twenties…
caf,
In Tassie that’s not a lot of votes.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics have updated GDP figures for the September quarter.Now if Labor were in power I reckon you would see msm headlines or at the very least Coalition pollies shouting.
The numbers 🙂
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/dec/04/coalition-nationals-umurray-darling-basin-pisa-results-gdp-economy-medevac-lambie-politics-live
I think the Medevac repeal may be a losing move for the government. Up till now traditional LNP voters who aren’t monsters may have been able to console themselves that the Senate and the courts at least provided some protection to the vulnerable.
That figleaf has now gone.
It’s becoming clearer all the time that the only way to get rid of this fascist wing of the LNP is to vote for a Labor government, either directly or via second preference after your favourite minor party.
PeeBee,
learning and understanding maths develops your brain in ways that encourage logical thinking. It gives you the power to understand basic facts, and draw logical conclusions – contributing to scientific and technological literacy. And, it gives you enormous power in your daily life and when making long-term investment, and even political decisions.
It is no accident that one of the groups who swung strongly to the coalition at the last Federal election were young males with lower educational attainments. They voted with their fear that someone was going to take their Utes, and that also their parents houses (death tax).
I also worry that becoming fluent in maths is seen as an unpalatable chore even on this website, where posters are generally very well informed, and educated, through both self and formal education. We really are doing it wrong.
[‘My hand is on my heart’: Jacqui Lambie votes with government to repeal medevac legislation’]
Oh please stop it Ms. Lambie!
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Lambie does a backflip on the Ensuring Integrity bill when it’s reintroduced next year. To give that creep Dutton the powers he revels in is the pits:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-deal-that-dare-not-speak-its-name-government-puts-medevac-legislation-to-vote-20191204-p53goo.html
Douglas and Milko says:
Wednesday, December 4, 2019 at 11:11 am
…
In Sydney, there is good evidence that state schools in poorer areas are becoming “residualised”, with anyone who can afford to send their children to a private school
…
Did you note the result for independent schools declined (they pulled down te result) and the state system did better than the catholic system.
As to the following article, if he is doing 4 hours of meths in Australia he is not doing pure and applied ( or whatever they are called today) why not?
https://www.smh.com.au/education/in-china-nicholas-studied-maths-20-hours-a-week-in-australia-it-s-three-20191203-p53ggv.html
PeeBee:
That’s not maths, that’s arithmetic (and frankly I think people also need to be able to do rough multiplication – how much do I need to prepay on the Costco fuel pump to fill my tank? – and division – is the smaller container on special a better price per gram than the bigger one at regular price?).
Maths is a much wider field encompassing many other things that are important for everyone, like geometry (eg. the intuition that area scales as the square of length), logic (eg. knowing that if A implies B and B implies C, then A implies C), and linear algebra (eg. the car used 5% of its battery to go the last 20km, so it’ll use about another 20% to go the next 80km to the destination).
“Trump Was Pissed”: Rudy Given Fox Time-Out After “Insurance” Diss
Giuliani’s loopy sound bites and Ukraine business ambitions have gotten under Trump’s skin
For more than a year, Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump have been part of a chorus of West Wing advisers telling Donald Trump that he needs to fire Rudy Giuliani. “Most people around Trump have tried to say Rudy is not a positive,” a former West Wing official recently told me.
But as Giuliani’s legal woes mount, Trump is coming around to his advisers’ view that Giuliani is a liability, three Republicans close to the White House told me. The relationship has grown so strained that Trump has even directed Giuliani not to appear on Fox News,
The turning point seems to be Giuliani’s Fox News interview on November 23 in which he claimed to have an “insurance policy” in case Trump throws him overboard. “Trump was pissed,” a source told me.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/12/rudy-given-fox-time-out-after-insurance-diss