In the wake of Craig Emerson and Jay Weatherill’s federal electoral post-mortem for Labor, two post-election reviews have emerged from the Liberal Party, with very different tales to tell – one from the May 2019 federal triumph, the other from the November 2018 Victorian state disaster.
The first of these was conducted by Arthur Sinodinos and Steven Joyce, the latter being a former cabinet minister and campaign director for the conservative National Party in New Zealand. It seems we only get to see the executive summary and recommendations, the general tenor of which is that, while all concerned are to be congratulated on a job well done, the party benefited from a “poor Labor Party campaign” and shouldn’t get too cocky. Points of interest:
• It would seem the notion of introducing optional preferential voting has caught the fancy of some in the party. The report recommends the party “undertake analytical work to determine the opportunities and risks” – presumably with respect to itself – “before making any decision to request such a change”.
• Perhaps relatedly, the report says the party should work closer with the Nationals to avoid three-cornered contests. These may have handicapped the party in Gilmore, the one seat it lost to Labor in New South Wales outside Victoria.
• The report comes out for voter identification at the polling booth, a dubious notion that nonetheless did no real harm when it briefly operated in Queensland in 2015, and electronic certified lists of voters, which make a lot more sense.
• It is further felt that the parliament might want to look at cutting the pre-poll voting period from three weeks to two, but should keep its hands off the parties’ practice of mailing out postal vote applications. Parliament should also do something about “boorish behaviour around polling booths”, like “limiting the presence of volunteers to those linked with a particular candidate”.
• Hints are offered that Liberals’ pollsters served up dud results from “inner city metropolitan seats”. This probably means Reid in Sydney and Chisholm in Melbourne, both of which went better than they expected, and perhaps reflects difficulties polling the Chinese community. It is further suggested that the party’s polling program should expand from 20 seats to 25.
• Ten to twelve months is about the right length of time out from the election to preselect marginal seat candidates, and safe Labor seats can wait until six months out. This is at odds with the Victorian party’s recent decision to get promptly down to business, even ahead of a looming redistribution, which has been a source of friction between the state and federal party.
• After six of the party’s candidates fell by the wayside during the campaign, largely on account of social media indiscretions (one of which may have cost the Liberals the Tasmanian seat of Lyons), it is suggested that more careful vetting processes might be in order.
The Victorian inquiry was conducted by former state and federal party director Tony Nutt, and is available in apparently unexpurgated form. Notably:
• The party’s tough-on-crime campaign theme, turbo-charged by media reportage of an African gangs crisis, failed to land. Too many saw it as “a political tactic rather than an authentic problem to be solved by initiatives that would help make their neighbourhoods safer”. As if to show that you can’t always believe Peter Dutton, post-election research found the issue influenced the vote of only 6% of respondents, “and then not necessarily to our advantage”.
• As it became evident during the campaign that they were in trouble, the party’s research found the main problem was “a complete lack of knowledge about Matthew Guy, his team and their plans for Victoria if elected”. To the extent that Guy was recognised at all, it was usually on account of “lobster with a mobster”.
• Guy’s poor name recognition made it all the worse that attention was focused on personalities in federal politics, two months after the demise of Malcolm Turnbull. Post-election research found “30% of voters in Victorian electorates that were lost to Labor on the 24th November stated that they could not vote for the Liberal Party because of the removal of Malcolm Turnbull”.
• Amid a flurry of jabs at the Andrews government, for indiscretions said to make the Liberal defeat all the more intolerable, it is occasionally acknowledged tacitly that the government had not made itself an easy target. Voters were said to have been less concerned about “the Red Shirts affair for instance” than “more relevant, personal and compelling factors like delivery of local infrastructure”.
• The report features an exhausting list of recommendations, updated from David Kemp’s similar report in 2015, the first of which is that the party needs to get to work early on a “proper market research-based core strategy”. This reflects the Emerson and Weatherill report, which identified the main problem with the Labor campaign as a “weak strategy”.
• A set of recommendations headed “booth management” complains electoral commissions don’t act when Labor and union campaigners bully their volunteers.
• Without naming names, the report weights in against factional operators and journalists who “see themselves more as players and influencers than as traditional reporters”.
• The report is cagey about i360, described in The Age as “a controversial American voter data machine the party used in recent state elections in Victoria and South Australia”. It was reported to have been abandoned in April “amid a botched rollout and fears sensitive voter information was at risk”, but the report says only that it is in suspension, and recommends a “thorough review”.
• Other recommendations are that the party should write more lists, hold more meetings and find better candidates, and that its shadow ministers should pull their fingers out.
Thanks guys for all your kind words.
It has been a rollercoaster ride over the past 10 days. Feels surreal that my dad is actually recovering. Fingers crossed things continue on an upward trajectory
Vic:
Did you see Trump’s comments about Macron? He’s such a whiny child.
Fess
No I haven’t as yet. What did he say?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trumps-personal-attorneys-remain-largely-on-the-sidelines-as-the-president-contends-with-impeachment-inquiry/2019/12/03/1076807c-150d-11ea-8406-df3c54b3253e_story.html
More from The Australian.
Difficult to know whether to be really angry, just pissed off or busy making a new improved Tin Foil Hat. 🥳
Why would Biden put Harris on the ticket, or appoint her AG if he wins the election, given the shade she’s thrown at him during the debates? I’m not sure that she brings anything to the table for as Biden campaign.
Vic:
Apparently Macron is very, very nasty and disrepectful for saying things about NATO. Zero self awareness from Orange Crush.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/trump-calls-french-presidents-criticism-of-nato-as-nasty-and-disrespectful/2019/12/03/12e97730-0fc0-11ea-924c-b34d09bbc948_story.html
PhoenixRed
Mos-cow.
Good one!
Interesting, KayJay. The fast track for John Barilaro then?
Fess
Thanks for that.
Definitely no self awareness as usual by the Mango Mussolini!
But you gotta wonder what Macron is playing at himself. Starting to wonder about his motives as well.
Yep. More and more information coming forward.
The Hill
@thehill
·
29m
Appeals court rules Deutsche Bank must turn over Trump financial records to House http://hill.cm/bDSb2pY
A_E,
Biden would realise that Kamala Harris was just doing political kabuki towards him and would be able to turn on a dime and focus her lasers on the Repugs very, very well as AG.
Victoria @ #461 Wednesday, December 4th, 2019 – 8:13 am
Another case that will be referred up to the pliant Supreme Court by the Trumpists.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Chris Uhlmann explains how a perfect storm is brewing for a Coalition that lacks coherent policy.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/perfect-storm-brewing-for-coalition-that-lacks-coherent-policy-20191203-p53gce.html
Well how would you be! Liberal MP Gladys Liu secured access to the federal government for a company and Liberal Party donor endorsed by the Chinese Communist Party and later implicated in a major organised crime probe into $1 million in suspected drug money. Oh Gladys!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/gladys-liu-linked-to-donor-at-centre-of-cash-drop-probe-20191202-p53g1x.html
Michael Pascoe, after yesterday’s decision to hold interest rates steady, says that it’s common to talk of the RBA running low on ammunition but now the quality of the ammunition needs assessment as well.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2019/12/03/rba-summer-rates-delay/
According to Rob Harris Kristina Keneally was to be appointed Australia’s ambassador to the US if Labor had formed government this year.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/kristina-keneally-was-headed-to-washington-under-secret-plan-with-bill-shorten-20191203-p53giz.html
It was hardly the venue for violence, the Joint Parliamentary Inquiry into Regulation of Audit in Australia. The Committee transcripts have now dropped and we can report on an extraordinary day in the history of audit, the day when, finally, there were calls for violence. Michael West reports.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/uppercut-call-for-violence-at-parliamentary-inquiry-into-accountants/
Ross Gittins expresses his opinion that as long as girls continue making themselves better educated than boys it’s only a matter of time before women are calling the shots.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/women-are-making-themselves-at-home-in-the-workforce-20191202-p53fyf.html
Euan Black writes that leading economists have warned low interest rates aren’t enough to give Australians a decent pay rise, after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held interest rates at 0.75 per cent.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2019/12/03/interest-rates-low-wages/
Educational professor Geoff Masters tells us how the declining performance of Australian school students is in the spotlight again and he wonders what government can do to arrest the decline.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/focus-on-basics-leaves-schoolkids-short-in-essential-deep-thinking-20191203-p53gd6.html
Shane Wright looks underneath the expected headline trade figures and doesn’t like what he sees.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/rba-tipped-for-deeper-rate-cuts-in-2020-even-as-economy-lifts-20191203-p53ghc.html
NSW has outlined its demands for the Murray-Darling Basin Plan but remains committed to walking away if they are not met reports Alexandra Smith. And the federal government has responded using the dreaded word “flexibility” and we all know what that means!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-gives-details-of-ultimatum-over-water-sharing-plan-20191203-p53gd9.html
A leading medical journal is launching a global campaign to separate medicine from big pharma, linking industry influence to the pelvic mesh scandal that injured hundreds of women.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/cannot-be-trusted-causing-harm-top-medical-journal-takes-on-big-pharma-20191203-p53ggj.html
Katie Burgess reports that the Coalition is set to press reset button on its union-busting bill.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6525006/coalition-to-press-reset-on-union-busting-bill/?cs=14350
The national energy market operator has warned extreme heatwaves, a heightened bushfire risk and the deteriorating reliability of ageing coal-fired power stations will imperil the energy grid and raise the threat of blackouts this summer, especially in Victoria.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/extra-pressure-on-energy-grid-as-scorching-summer-looms-20191203-p53gf9.html
Charlie Lyons says that China’s leadership is making the country unsafe for many. It’s time that Australia publicly recognised this unfortunate reality.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-must-recognise-unfortunate-reality-in-china-and-issue-travel-warnings-20191203-p53gc4.html
The lawful but “barbaric” use of chemical and mechanical restraints on people with disability should spark public outrage, but instead their use is widely overlooked, a royal commission hearing has been told.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/restraining-people-with-disabilities-is-barbaric-royal-commission-hears-20191203-p53gg6.html
Dana McCauley reports that thousands of Australians with mental health conditions like depression, anxiety and bipolar have taken advantage of changes to health insurance rules to fast-track their hospital psychiatric treatment.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/thousands-fast-track-private-mental-health-treatment-after-insurance-reforms-20191202-p53fxe.html
Meanwhile fewer than 40% of the population will be covered by private health insurance by 2030 unless reforms are made, according to a report from the public policy thinktank the Grattan Institute.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/04/up-to-60-of-australians-will-drop-private-health-by-2030-without-reform-report-finds
Rob Harris reports that none of the 180 asylum seekers transferred under the contentious medevac legislation are currently being treated in a hospital, with the majority now living in community detention in Australia.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/most-people-transferred-under-medevac-law-now-living-in-community-detention-20191203-p53gjo.html
Dozens of Iraqi interpreters who have served the Australian Defence Force alongside Australian diggers battling Islamic State are seeking to come to Australia, but say they have been prevented from applying for visas.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/04/iraqi-interpreters-who-served-beside-australians-say-theyre-prevented-from-applying-for-visas
Matthew Kott writes on how the democrats have laid out the case in a scathing landmark report before the forthcoming articles for Trump’s impeachment.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/worse-than-nixon-democrats-lay-out-impeachment-case-in-landmark-report-20191204-p53glm.html
A US appeals court has handed President Donald Trump another defeat in his bid to keep his financial records secret. Will Trump try to hang out until it gets up to the Republicans’ stacked Supreme Court?
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/banks-told-to-hand-over-donald-trump-s-tax-records-20191204-p53gl5.html
Israel’s Supreme Court has rejected an appeal by a former educator accused of sexually abusing students in Australia, paving the way for a new psychiatric evaluation to determine her fitness to stand trial for extradition. What a shocking effort from Israel for all these years.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/israeli-court-rejects-appeal-from-teacher-accused-of-sex-crimes-20191204-p53glt.html
A day after more allegations about his links with Jeffrey Epstein were aired on the BBC, Prince Andrew was a notable absentee from the first royal gathering since the sex scandal that has seen him exiled.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/entertainment/celebrity/royal/2019/12/04/prince-andrew-donald-trump-royals/
Today’s nomination for “Arsehole of the Week” goes to this little darling.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/03/young-liberal-national-party-leader-suspended-over-video-denigrating-indigenous-culture
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe with Trump descending on the UK.
From Matt Golding.
A cracker from Alan Moir.
I think Mark David might be having a go at News Ltd here.
Another from Mark David.
Fiona Katauskas and the government’s priorities.
Zanetti with Morrison’s senate problems.
From a dispirited Glen Le Lievre.
Johannes Leak and the very worst of the rag he works for!
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/93ad951b65bd8b3aa1b6c84602600190?width=1024
From the US
Much thanks BK!
The Impeachment Report really nailing Trump on obstruction and witness tampering – for example it catalogs Trump’s modus operandi…
“When the three investigating Committees began reviewing the President’s actions as part of the House’s impeachment inquiry, President Trump repeatedly challenged the investigation’s legitimacy in word and deed. President Trump’s rhetorical attacks appeared intended not just to dispute public reports of his misconduct, but to persuade the public that the House lacks authority to investigate the President and the inquiry is therefore invalid and fraudulent. For example, the President described the impeachment inquiry as:
• “a COUP”48
• “illegal, invalid, and unconstitutional”49
• “an unconstitutional power grab”50
• “Ukraine Witch Hunt”51
• “a continuation of the Greatest and most Destructive Witch Hunt of all time”52
• “a total Witch Hunt Scam by the Democrats”53
• “bad for the country”54
• “all a hoax”55
• “the single greatest witch hunt in American history”56
• “Democrat Scam”57
• “just another Democrat Hoax”58
• “a fraud against the American people”59
• “A Witch Hunt Scam”60
• “a con being perpetrated on the United States public and even the world”61
• “ridiculous”62
• “a continuation of the greatest Scam and Witch Hunt in the history of our Country”63
• “Ukraine Hoax”64
• “No Due Process Scam”65
• “the phony Impeachment Scam”66
• “the phony Impeachment Hoax”67
Shanahan’s article is interesting.
It simply bypasses the poor management behaviour of the farmers themselves. It ignores issues such as global warming. It ignores bad behaviour by the NSW governments in over allocating licences.
It refers to corporate water holders, notes that the Nats are hapless with the politics, and notes that there is a split between NSW and Fed govts. It also omits the forthcoming stoush between SA and NSW.
Pisspoor journalism?
The Nats are an absolute disgrace. Seems a lot of people who’ve only ever voted Nats their entire lives are headed down the road to Damascus, so to speak.
Boerwar
As ever, the journos are more interested in the politics, never the practical outcomes.
Thanks BK.
Interesting criticism from Uhlmann. Has he been asleep for the past 5 years, and not realised that the absence of coherent policy hasn’t hurt the coalition at all really?
Fess
Sorry meant to add earlier.
Was Macron doing reverse ferret in order to get Trump to defend NATO.
lizzie
Rock Wallabies can go for long periods without water. (Roo poo contains extremely little moisture). So a ‘little’ water is a lot of water.
There’s Gladys Liu and there’s….
Bipartisanship
Crossbench unites on China threat
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6525081/crossbench-unites-on-china-threat/?cs=14350
“The entire Senate crossbench united on Tuesday to call for a parliamentary inquiry into Australia’s relationship with China, amid growing concern about China’s influence and interference in Australian politics, universities and infrastructure.
Liberal and Labor have resisted a formal inquiry and voted against it last night. Labor was to jointly sponsor an inquiry with the Centre Alliance’s Rex Patrick in August, but changed its mind at the last minute and has resisted since.
But the crossbenchers, One Nation, Jacqui Lambie and Independent Cory Bernardi, plus the Greens, united behind Senator Patrick.”
Why did Labor change its mind?
Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.
David Rowe with another masterpiece.
The quality of the “Arsehole of the Week” contenders seems to be declining. Never mind – I expect the young, inexperienced Arsehole will go on to bigger and better in the way of bastardry.
Time to read through your items – then exciting house cleaning. Wow – the excitement. 🥳☕
Vic:
Macron was criticising the US albeit in a roundabout way by saying its disengagement from NATO was essentially diminishing its effectiveness.
Trump with his trademark lack of irony obviously took umbrage, completely overlooking the fact that he himself has argued for NATO to be dismantled.
Boerwar
This researcher has said that he has almost turned into a wildlife rescue service after the fires. He’s supposed to be researching predators, not victims.
California senator Kamala Harris has ended her 2020 Democratic presidential campaign after failing to garner support in key states despite an early rise in the polls.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-04/kamala-harris-ends-democratic-presidential-bid/11763960
Confessions @ #471 Wednesday, December 4th, 2019 – 8:24 am
Is the ‘perfect storm’ that he refers to the same type that knocked out South Australia’s power in 2016?
lizzie
I assume that the predators all got burned in the fires…
Stunters abound.
Boerwar @ #480 Wednesday, December 4th, 2019 – 8:36 am
I was wondering the same thing. Foxes and cats aren’t as agile as Rock Wallabies, when it comes to escaping across the land.
Unfortunately not.
After bushfires this ‘low-tech’ shelter could protect small native animals from being preyed on by feral cats, foxes
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-04/bushfire-shelters-to-protect-wildlife-during-heat/11749480
Queensland 2011 flood victims won a landmark class action but could still wait years for payouts
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-04/queensland-floods-explained-everything-to-know/11757828
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/12/03/great-barrier-reef-sound-speakers/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020191204
Bellwether:
Lol
Bluebottle
A very interesting link. 🙂
Richard Marles was interviewed on ABC RN Breakfast this morning:
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/gladys-liu-linked-to-donor-implicated-in-money-laundering-probe/11764174
I was surprised how poor a performance he put in.
Bluebottle @ #483 Wednesday, December 4th, 2019 – 8:39 am
Thanks for that, Bluebottle. 🙂
It’s interesting to note that the Green on this forum this morning is all about denigrating Labor politicians, having a sly go at the Queensland Labor state government over delays in payments, and regurgitating a piece of news from the USA that had already been discussed, but not ONE comment about the environment issue the Labor supporters are discussing here this morning.
Typical. They only care about the environment in so far as they can use it as a stick to beat Labor with.
Jacqui Lambie
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-04/jacquie-lambie-speaks-out-on-china-and-australia-relations/11763504
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-03/esperance-bushfire-inquest-report-2015-coroner-coronial-fire/11762940
And the Green on this forum this morning would prefer to focus on Labor’s links to Chinese donors than the more current news about the Liberals:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/gladys-liu-linked-to-donor-at-centre-of-cash-drop-probe-20191202-p53g1x.html
What we SHOULD be discussing is China’s influence on the current federal government, not rehashing old news about Labor for its hoped-for sensational value that benefits The Greens’ project to strip votes away from the ALP.
I won’t hold my breath that that will happen.
Fess
Appears Macron was doing psychops on Trump.
Off to see dad. Talk later guys
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/04/climate-change-now-the-most-significant-threat-to-australias-wet-tropics
Lizzie,
Octopuses Garden would be on high rotation.
Peter Lewis @PeterLewisEMC
8m
Because there’s a class war and we are losing
One of the reasons Harris’ campaign failed.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/12/03/two-challenges-that-doomed-kamala-harris/
lizzie @ #497 Wednesday, December 4th, 2019 – 9:03 am
And that response by Peter Lewis points to why we are losing. Because the Coalition do deflection and projection very well. They appropriate the criticism that should be directed at them and use it against their critics.
2017 UK Election Polls…
2019:
Amazing how similar the upward trend for Labour is…